1. Executive Summary……………………………………………...………………..2
3. Introduction to Risk……………………………………………………………...17
Meaning of Risk………………………………………………………….…..18
Sources of Risk………………………………………………………………19
Types of Risk…………………………………………………………….……23
4. Review of Literature……………………………………………………….………27
5. Research Methodology………………………………………………….………..33
6. Data Analysis…………………………………………………………….………….37
7. Findings………………………………………………………………………………48
8. Suggestion……………………………………………………………….…………..50
9. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………..52
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This study is based on mainly risk factor, which affects investors to invest in a
portfolio. Investment management, also referred to as portfolio management, is a
complex process or activity that may be divided into different phases. Investment
objective are expressed in terms of risk & return. Two broad choices are available
with respect to portfolio strategy known as an active strategy or a passive
strategy. An active strategy is followed by most investment professionals and
aggressive investors who strive to earn superior returns, after adjustment for
risk. The four principle vectors of an active strategy are: market timing, sector
rotation, security selection, and use of a specialized concept. A passive portfolio
strategy calls for creating a well diversified portfolio investor at a predetermined
level of risk and holding it relatively unchanged over time, unless it becomes
inadequately diversified or inconsistence with the investor’s risk-returns
preferences.
Investors have to periodically monitor and revise their portfolio. This usually
entails two things namely portfolio rebalancing and portfolio upgrading. The key
dimensions of portfolio performance evaluation are rate of return and risk.
So this study mainly concentrates upon risk affect on investment decision. This
study mainly comprises portfolio management and how risk affects construction
of portfolio or investment decision in a portfolio. Portfolio management is mainly
requires to reduce the risk and increase performance of portfolio by better return
2
Chapter – 1
Introduction
To
Portfolio Management
3
Portfolio Management .
The art of selecting the right investment policy for the individual in terms
of minimum risk and maximum return is called as portfolio management.
Portfolio management refers to managing an individual’s investment in the
form of bonds, shares, cash, mutual funds etc so that he earns the
maximum profits within the stipulated time frame.
4
Portfolio Management.
Security analysis
Portfolio analysis
Selection of securities
Portfolio execution
Portfolio revision
Portfolio evaluation
5
Portfolio Management
.
6
Portfolio Management
.
The risk-return relationship for various types of bonds & stocks can be
understood by following:
Figure no. – 2
7
. Portfolio Management
8
. Portfolio Management
9
. Portfolio Management
10
. Portfolio Management
11
11. . Portfolio Management
12
.. Portfolio
PortfolioManagement
Management
13
. Portfolio Management
14
. Portfolio Management
1. Historical performance
2. Investment style
3. Manager incentives
4. Company information
5. Historical taxability
6. Fixed-income creditworthiness
15
Chapter – 2
Introduction
To
Risk Management
16
. Risk Management
MEANING OF RISK
Risk can be defined in terms of variability of returns. "Risk is the potential
for variability in returns." An investment whose returns are fairly stable is
considered to be a low-risk investment, whereas an investment whose
returns fluctuated significantly is considered to be a high-risk investment.
Equity shares whose returns are likely to fluctuate widely are considered
risky investments. Government securities whose returns are fairly stable
are considered to possess low risk.
Risk refers to the possibility that the actual outcome of an investment will
differ from its expected outcome. More specifically, most investors are
concerned about the actual outcome being less the expected outcome. The
wider range of possible outcomes, the greater the risk. Risk analysis refers
to the uncertainty of forecasted future cash flows streams, variance of
portfolio/stock returns, statistical analysis to determine the probability of
a project's success or failure, and possible future economic states. Risk
analysts often work in tandem with forecasting professionals to minimize
future negative unforeseen effects.
17
. Risk Management
SOURCES OF RISK:
Traditionally, investors have talked about several sources of total risk,
such as interest rate risk and market risk, which are explained below,
because these terms are used so widely, following this discussion,
researcher will define the modern portfolio resources of risk.
Market Risk
Inflation Risk
Business Risk
Financial Risk
Liquidity Risk
Country Risk
18
Risk Management
.
19
. Risk Management
20
. Risk Management
21
. Risk Management
[[
22
. Risk Management
23
. Risk Management
24
. Risk Management
25
Chapter – 3
Review
Of
Literature
26
. Review of Literature
2. Lalit Mohan Kathuria (2012): The fast growing Indian economy has
led to higher income level and availability of new investment
avenues. Government savings departments, banks, financial
institutions and mutual fund houses are vying for a share in the
savings of investors. Investors now have many options for making
investments like debt instruments, stocks, mutual funds, gold, etc.
With the role of women becoming increasingly important in the
family as well as society, it becomes important to examine the
investment behavior of women investors.
27
. Review of Literature
28
. Review of Literature
5. Manish Mittal & R K Vyas (2011): Men and women differ in their
attitudes towards and preferences for risk while investing.
Psychologists suggest that women lack confidence and are more
methodical in their information processing and accumulation style.
These factors contribute to the increased perception of risk in them
as compared to men. The paper investigates whether women are
more risk-averse than men and the reasons suggested by
psychologists for the same. The study indicates that men engage in
more risk taking and are more overconfident than women. Women
tend to put in a major portion of their funds in low risk – low return
investments. However, the study suggests that men and women do
not differ in their information processing and accumulation styles.
29
Review of Literature
.
8. Manish Mittal & R K Vyas (2009): It has been well established that
investor behavior and asset price deviate from the predictions of simple
rational models. The proponents of behavioral finance believe that
investment decision making is not a completely rational process.
Individuals' investment decisions are guided by their desires, goals,
prejudices and emotions. Gender, age, income, education, wealth and
marital status of individuals also influence their investment decisions.
This paper investigates how income of individual investors affects their
investment decisions and their tendency to be influenced by some
commonly exhibited behavioral biases. The results indicate that Indian
investors are prone to behavioral biases during their investment decision
making process. Income was found to be a significant factor impacting
the overconfidence level, tendency to overreact and loss/regret
avoidance, but has no significant effect on self-attribution bias, framing
effect, and tendency to use purchase price as reference point.
30
. Review of Literature
10. Roberto Frota Decourt & José Madeira Neto (2007): The study
indicates that the process of making investment decisions is based
on the `Behavioral Economics' theory which uses the fundamental
aspects of the `Prospect Theory' developed by Kahneman and
Tversky (1979). The following effects have been tested and identified
using an investment simulator over the Internet: (1) the endowment
effect, which prevents the participants from selling the received
assets, even if better investment options are available; (2) the
disposition effect, which refers to the pattern that people avoid
realizing paper losses and seek to realize gains; (3) fear of regret,
which makes the participant invest in previously rejected assets that
had good valorization; and (4) framing, which modifies the
investment decision depending on the perspective given to the
problem. The conclusions of this study are: (1) the endowment effect
was effective for physicians; (2) the disposition effect did not affect
the participants; (3) the fear of regret influenced the decisions of
MBA students; and (4) the framing modified the investment decision
of the physicians and MBA students.
31
Chapter – 4
Research
Methodology
32
[
. Research Methodology
This study only focuses upon the risk effect on investor decision to invest
in a portfolio. In this study we analyze that how a portfolio diversify the
risk in an investment. The ultimate goal in a diversification strategy is to
improve investment performance while reducing risk. One way to
categorize risk is to distinguish between unsystematic risk and systematic
risk. Risk can be reduced by investment in portfolio. There are following
reasons to invest in a portfolio:
To diversify portfolio
Tax saving
Interest rate speculation
Risk reduction
Assets choices
Lower maintenance
33
. Research Methodology
OBJECTIVES:
1. To understand about portfolio management.
2. To find out the impact of risk on investment decision.
3. To analyze how portfolio reduce risk.
Research design:
Research:
Research is a process in which the researcher wishes to find out the end
result for a given problem and thus the solution helps in future course of
action. The research has been defined as “A careful investigation or
enquiry especially through search for new fact in any branch of
knowledge”.
Type of research:
Sources of data
The two sources of data collection are namely primary & secondary.
Primary Data:
Primary Data are those data which are collected at first time through
observation, direct communication or personal interview. The Primary
Data required for this project work was collected through Questionnaires.
The format of the Questionnaire is attached to this report.
34
. Research Methodology
Secondary Data
Secondary data is the data which is already available i.e., they refer to
data, which has already been collected and analyzed by someone else.
Secondary data are collected from books and internet.
Sample Design
35
Chapter – 5
Data
Analysis
36
. Data Analysis
15
15
11
10
0
Low risk taker Average risk taker High risk taker
Degree of risk
20
20
15
10
5 2
0
No Yes, rarely Yes, frequently
Investment pattern
37
. Data Analysis
No. of investors
14
15 12
10 7
5 Series1
0
Always possible Rarely possible Always possible Rarely possible
losses losses gains gains
Probability of return
40
30
20 Series1
10 2
0
Optimistic Pessimistic
Nature of financial decision
38
. Data Analysis
4%
Concern for Income
Mainly Salary
36%
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 60% investors prefer equal
mix of salary & commission, 36% investors prefer mainly salary and there
are only 4% investors who prefer only commission base job.
Medium
56%
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 56% investors have taken
medium risk in their past financial decision, 28% investors have taken low
risk in their past financial decision and 16% investors have taken high
risk in their past financial decision. This graph shows that there are
maximum no. investors willing to take medium risk in past scenario.
39
. Data Analysis
Yes
No
88%
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 88% investors, who have not
prefer to borrow money from their fixed assets that means maximum no.
investor does not liquidate their fixed assets for any kind of financial
investment & 12% investors borrow funds from fixed assets.
Medium
66%
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 66% investors have average
confidence on their financial decision, 18% investors highly confident
about their financial decision and 16% investors have low confidence on
their financial decision.
40
. Data Analysis
20
15
10
5
5
0
Very easily Somewhat eaisly Somewhat uneaisly
Assumptions of investors
25
20
15 11
10
5 2 3
0
Danger Uncertainty Opportunity Thrill
View of investors
41
. Data Analysis
Graph No. – 11. Preference of investors for job security & income:
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 50% investors mainly prefer
high job security with low salary, 42% investors prefer low job security
with high salary and 8% investors prefer not sure about their job security
& income.
20
No. of investors
15
15
12
10
0
Small Medium Large
Risk preparation
42
. Data Analysis
15
10 10
10 8
0
Definitely not Probably not Not sure Definitely
Investment probability
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 22 investors out of will not
invest their money in a loss making company, 10 investors not sure about
investment and 8 investors will definitely not invest money in loss making
company.
Investment Portfolio
Low risk 10%
24% Medium risk 40%
30% High risk 50%
Low risk 30%
Medium risk 40%
High risk 30%
Low risk 50%
Medium risk 40%
46% High risk 10%
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 46% investors invest their
money in that portfolio which consist low risk 30%, medium risk 40% and
high risk 30%. There are 30% investors invest money in that portfolio
which contains low risk 10%, medium risk 40% & high risk 50%.
43
. Data Analysis
10
5
0
Toward lower risk Toward higher risk No change
Risk Pattern
25
20
15 12
10 6 4
5 2
0
Any fall make 10% 25% 50% More than 50%
you
uncomfortable
value of fall in market
44
. Data Analysis
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 68% investors are mainly
prefer that investment value should retains its purchasing power and 32%
investors think that the value of investment should not fall.
Graph No. – 18. Funds available with investors for average risk &
return investment.
Funds Available for Average Return Investment
0%
4%
32%
28%
0%-20%
21%-40%
41%-60%
61%-80%
81%-100%
36%
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 36% investors have 21%-40%
funds for investment, 32% investors have 41%-60% funds for average risk
& return investment. There are 28% investors have 20% funds for
investment in average risk & return investment.
45
. Data Analysis
Interpretation: The above graph shows that 40% investors prefer 50%
variable and 50% fixed interest rates, 22% investors mainly prefer 75%
variable & 25% fixed interest rates, 18% investors prefer 100% variable
interest rate, 12% investors prefer 25% variable & 75% fixed interest rate
and 8% investors prefer 100% fixed interest rate.
46
. Findings
FINDINGS
4. There are most of the investors prefer high job security, so stability
of income source is also affect investors risk taking capacity.
6. Many of the investors take downturn market very uneasily and feel
uncomfortable, so that is why risk taking capacity is also affected by
assumption of investors for downturn market.
47
. Findings
10. Many of the investors concern that investment value should retains
its purchasing power, so if investment value fall from its purchasing
then investors will not take risk.
11. There are most of the investors having funds available with them for
that portfolio which contains average risk and average returns. So
this analysis shows that investors mostly prefer average risk
containing portfolio.
13. There are mostly investors prepared to take medium risk in future
scenario; they do not prepare to take high risk in future. So this
analysis shows that investors willing to take average risk in future
scenario.
48
. Suggestions
SUGGESTIONS
As per the study, it is analyze that maximum number of investors
are risk averse and willing to take average risk due to following
reasons:
1. Average income level.
2. Funds & assets available with them.
3. Willingness to take risk.
4. Family background.
5. Uncertainty view about risk.
6. Uncertainty in market situation.
49
. Suggestions
Average
6.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 12.00% NA
Returns
0-1 Year
100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Short Allocation
Term 1-3 Year
10.00% 65.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25.00% 100.00%
Allocation
Medium 3-6 Year
10.00% 65.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25.00% 100.00%
Term Allocation
6-10 Year
0.00% 40.00% 0.00% 0.00% 60.00% 100.00%
Long Allocation
Term 10+ Year
0.00% 15.00% 10.00% 0.00% 75.00% 100.00%
Allocation
50
. Conclusion
CONCLUSION
This project study mainly focuses upon risk affect on investment decision.
To conclude after analysis of the research data, it is clear that mostly
investors are average risk taker and they are willing to take average risk in
their investment decision. Mostly investors want to invest in that portfolio
which consist average risk and average return. Many of the investor’s
correlates risk with uncertainty in returns, so less no of investors think
positive about risk. This will also affect risk taking capacity of investors.
51
. References
REFERANCES
52
. References
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Books, magazines and reports support:
1) Portfolio Management – Parsana Chandra
2) Security Analysis and Portfolio Management- S Kevin
3) The IUP Journal of Applied Finance
4) The IUP Journal of Behavioral Finance
5) The IUP Journal of Risk Management
53