Tampa Bay Rays

Market Analysis
Efe Edevbie
B.A. Sport Management, University of Michigan
TB Rays’ Market ● Population: 2,927,714
● 1,182,760 jobs in the region
Summary ● 19.5% of households (226,670) in
the region earn over $100,000
● 22% of workers are college
graduates
● 41.2% of the population is 35
years old and younger
 ● Rays’ game attendance has been on a
significant decline since 2010, with annual
Ballpark ●
attendance dropping about 32.7%.
A higher team payroll (having bigger stars,
Attendance better players) does not positively affect
attendance. With their largest payroll of the
decade in 2017, the Rays had their lowest
lowest attendance in the 10-year period.
● The team has finished dead last in American
League attendance 5 out of the past 6 years.
Location Quotient
● Retail Trade
○ 1.19 Location Quotient (163,684/1,237,042 for
Tampa MSA [2016]; 15,824,396/141,870,066 for
United States [2016])
● Accommodation and Food Services
○ 1.06 Location Quotient (122,980/1,237,042 for
Tampa MSA [2016]; 13,318,703/141,870,066 for
United States [2016])
● Neither LQ is particularly high, but are both very
decently healthy.
Evaluation
● The Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA
does not have the bandwidth to continue to
support an MLB franchise. The Rays should
move elsewhere after 2027.
● There isn’t an abundance of wealth in the area,
or much of a prospect for long-term growth in
the area.
● The team’s declining attendance over the past
decade makes for an uphill battle to find
support in the region.
San Antonio-Austin
● Were a rumored relocation location for the
Oakland Raiders before they settle on Las

Market ●
Vegas.
The market would consist of Bexar, Comal,
Guadalupe, Hays, Caldwell, Bastrop, Travis,
Blanco, and Williamson counties, as well as part
of Kendall county. This is a mixture of the
Austin-Round Rock and San Antonio-New
Braunfels MSAs.
● Population is roughly 4.1 Million (4,111,762).
● San Marcos, TX would be the target stadium
location (apexes both San Antonio and Austin).
San Antonio-Austin ● Approximately 1,751,375 jobs
● 26.7% of households earn over
Market cont. $100,000, with a total of 384,010
reaching that benchmark
● About 18.4% of workers are
college graduates
● 51.5% of the population is 35
years old or younger
Market Interference
● The San Antonio-Austin market for the Rays
falls well outside of the markets for the Houston
Astros and Texas Rangers (Dallas-Fort Worth).
○ The San Antonio-New Braunfels and
Austin-Round Rock MSAs are extremely
far-reaching for both the Astros and the Rangers.
■ Arlington to Austin and Houston to San
Antonio are both approximately 3 hour
drives.
● While the Rangers and Astros may have
attempted to draw from the San Antonio-Austin
market, they are simply too far away to do it
effectively, and for the market to have a
substantial impact on their bottom line.
● Just as the 3 NBA teams in the area (Spurs,
Rockets, and Mavericks) have found a way to
work it out, I anticipate that the same can be
done with 3 MLB teams.
Location Quotient
● Retail Trade
○ 0.99 Location Quotient (208,537/1,887,825 for
San Antonio-Austin Market [2016];
15,824,396/141,870,066 for United States [2016])
● Accommodation and Food Services
○ 1.22 Location Quotient (217,231/1,887,825 for
San Antonio-Austin Market [2016];
13,318,703/141,870,066 for United States [2016])
● The Accommodation and Food Services
industry sticks out as a decent economic staple
for the region.
Recommendation
● San Antonio-Austin is a viable market to break
into once the Rays’ lease in St. Petersburg ends
in 2027, and should be considered as their
primary relocation target.
● The Spurs consistently rank between 9th and
14th in the entire NBA in attendance (ESPN).
○ While they have a cult-like following and fan base,
the Spurs accomplish this without effectively
drawing from the Austin-Round Rock MSA. By
placing the Rays in San Marcos, the team will be
able to draw heavily from both the San Antonio
and Austin areas.
● Overall, the Rays would have a larger, wealthier,
and younger population to draw from with a
move to Texas.
○ There is a clear upward trajectory to be seen
here.