The Global Index reflects the performance of all indices across our database, rather than a product managed by Clear Alpha
Sep Return 1Y Return 1Y Sharpe 5Y Return 5Y Sharpe
Global Index 0.45% 3.80% 1.33 2.43% 0.15
Arbitrage 0.24% 7.88% 2.55 12.49% 0.74
Carry 0.74% 6.13% 1.04 -4.34% -0.20
Commodity 0.13% 16.01% 2.07 27.35% 0.81
Fixed Income 0.03% 5.68% 0.95 23.00% 0.75
Volatility 0.08% 3.69% 0.71 7.94% 0.30
Economic Indicators 0.42% 1.06% 0.22 -8.66% -0.69
Research 2.30% -5.41% -0.84 -13.16% -0.55
Macro -0.35% 4.06% 1.09 -5.71% -0.46
Momentum 0.73% 1.33% 0.27 1.05% 0.02
Mean Reversion 1.01% 3.08% 0.84 11.19% 0.37
Trend Following 0.59% 0.54% 0.04 -1.55% -0.13
September witnessed a rebound in commodity prices, a rise in EM and high yield currencies, outperformance of small cap
stocks, moderate changes for major equity indices and interest rate curves, and an increase in realised volatilities. Seven out of
eight sub-strategy indices posted gains, and the Clear Alpha Global index finished up +0.45%.
Arbitrage sub-strategies were all positive (+0.24% as an index), the highest returns coming from Carry indices which were
supported by strong EM currencies (and rising oil prices).
Unusually, the strongest performance came from Equity Research strategies (+2.30%) which were supported by a comeback in
small cap stocks. In addition, the group was helped by a quality factor strategy on Japanese equities which posted large gains.
The Macro group (-0.35%) on the other hand was undermined by losses in commodity backwardation.
Equity mean reversion strategies, particularly short term mean reversion on equity indices, did very well in September (+1.01%)
as volatility rose in a trendless market. Trend following strategies were up +0.59%, helped by gains in energy, metals and EM
currency prices. While CTA funds appear (on average) to have lost money in September, the 59 trend following strategies in
our database, which are usually closely correlated to this group, have outperformed this time.
1All performance figures are based on daily snapshots of published returns, not allowing for corrections or restatements at a later stage. In order for
all indices to be comparable, the performance numbers in this report have been adjusted when an index is not published in USD or its return is not
expressed as a total return.
Disclaimer: to the extent the information relates to the Clear Alpha Global IndexTM (the “Index”), the information contained herein (including
historical prices or values) has been obtained from sources that Clear Alpha considers to be reliable; however, Clear Alpha does not make any
representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. For a more
complete description of the Clear Alpha Global IndexTM, reference is made to the document Index Methodology, available from Clear Alpha on
request. All data are historical estimations using available data. Clear Alpha does not make any representation herein regarding the advisability of
investing in any product based on the Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Clear Alpha is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority.
Carry Strategies (CLAXCAR Index) +0.74% in Sep, +6.13% in the last 12 months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2012 4.08% 2.51% -3.07% -0.84% -3.97% 2.29% 2.58% -1.19% 0.63% -0.42% 0.18% 1.18% 3.73%
2013 1.47% 0.00% 0.65% 0.50% -2.34% -1.92% -0.98% -2.10% 1.77% 1.21% -1.53% -0.74% -4.04%
2014 -2.11% 2.39% 2.75% 0.13% 0.72% 0.37% -0.30% 0.73% -2.61% 0.38% 0.12% -1.14% 1.30%
2015 -2.82% 1.02% -0.83% 0.97% -0.87% -1.42% -1.92% -4.18% -1.76% 2.88% 0.74% -1.03% -9.04%
2016 -1.20% -0.44% 2.68% 0.09% -0.90% 1.69% 0.28% 0.55% 0.74% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.47%
EM currencies as well as those in the G10 group posted gains against the USD in September2. One of the reasons was a
rebound in oil prices with the WTI crude oil front contract gaining +6.5%. The NOK was up +4.4%, the AUD +1.9%, the
JPY +1.9% and the CHF +1.2%; the ZAR was up +7.2%, the RUB +3.8% and the COP (Colombian Peso) +2.7%. Global FX
carry strategies were positive on average (+0.7%) and outperformed G10 strategies (+0.3%). In total 79% of the 24 FX
carry strategies in our database finished up, the returns ranging from 2.6% to -1.0%. In addition, the three equity
dividend carry strategies on the Euro Stoxx 50 were up +1.2% on average; the Nikkei 225 strategy was down
-0.2%. At the end of September, we’ve added two equity dividend carry strategies to the Global Index (one by Citi and
another by BNP) bringing the peer group count to six strategies.
Top 3 movers (ranked by 1 month returns)
Sep-16
Arbitrage - Carry YTD return 1Y Sharpe 1Y return
return
1) DB As cent Broad Global FX Carry Arbitrage 2.6% 13.3% 0.8 13.2%
2) Credi t Sui s s e Di vi dend Alpha Euro Stoxx 50 Dividend Arbitrage 1.3% 4.4% 1.2 4.1%
3) UBS Cons tant Maturi ty Di vi dend Index Euro Stoxx 50 Dividend Arbitrage 1.2% 5.7% 1.0 8.6%
Commodity Yield Optimisation (CLAXCYO Index) +0.13% in Sep, +16.01% in the last 12 months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2012 1.75% 1.38% 4.02% -2.46% 0.94% -4.37% -1.92% 2.65% -0.04% 0.66% 1.04% 0.35% 3.80%
2013 -0.69% 0.09% -0.33% 0.52% 1.04% -1.27% -0.07% 0.46% 0.92% 1.97% 0.93% -1.11% 2.43%
2014 -3.92% 1.63% 1.16% 0.77% 1.29% 1.57% 2.13% 0.79% -0.20% 0.41% 0.04% 1.53% 7.29%
2015 0.71% 0.08% 0.30% -3.96% -1.41% 0.33% 0.87% -0.70% -0.12% 2.72% 4.07% 2.97% 5.75%
2016 0.80% 2.96% -0.05% -2.11% 0.03% 1.04% 2.58% -0.02% 0.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.40%
Like August, September was uneventful for Commodity Arbitrage strategies which finished slightly positive as a group.
The best return was +1.1% for Credit Suisse’s Custom 24 congestion arbitrage strategy; the lowest was -0.6%, by a curve
arbitrage strategy. Commodity prices rose across the board3 and the WTI crude oil front month future finished at
$48.24, up +6.5%. The correlation between flattening curves and rising prices held up for WTI but was not verified for
Brent crude futures: the premium of November 17 over November 16 contracts declined from +9.4% to +8.5% for WTI;
it increased from +8.2% to +9.9% for Brent. This gave support to a number of strategies in a month which otherwise
would have been negative. Overall, curve arbitrage strategies were up +0.1% with beta-neutral positions (up +0.2%)
outperforming delta neutral versions in the rising market. Congestion arbitrage strategies were up +0.3%.
Top 3 movers (ranked by 1 month returns)
Sep-16
Arbitrage - Commodity Yield Optimization YTD return 1Y Sharpe 1Y return
return
1) Commodity
Credi t Sui s s e Cus tom 24 (commodi ty conges ti on) Congestion Arbitrage 1.1% 8.9% 1.9 16.9%
2) RBS Aquantum Pegas us Zeus Commodity Future Arbitrage - 13 contracts 1.0% 0.8% 0.8 4.8%
3) Commodity
Ci ti Commodi ti es Conges ti on Dynami c Alpha Congestion Arbitrage
Cus tom 0.6% 2.6% 1.6 7.5%
2 The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Currency index was up +0.76%; the Dollar index (DXY index) was down -0.58%. Source: Bloomberg
3 The BCOM Energy sub-index was up +4.1%; the Agriculture sub-index was up +4.2%; the Industrial Metals sub-index was up +5.2%; the Precious
Volatility Arbitrage Strategies (CLAXVOA Index) +0.08% in Sep, +3.69% in the last 12 months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2012 1.51% 1.21% -0.51% 0.97% 0.66% -1.11% 0.46% 0.53% 0.31% -0.20% 1.07% -0.27% 4.69%
2013 0.80% -0.68% 0.89% -0.73% -0.24% -1.05% 0.70% -0.69% 0.62% 0.93% 0.44% -0.15% 0.83%
2014 -1.65% 0.93% 0.03% 0.59% 0.69% 1.08% -0.81% 0.99% -0.19% -2.45% 0.83% -1.61% -1.63%
2015 -1.37% 2.89% -0.90% 1.10% 0.13% -1.24% 2.27% -5.35% -0.07% 1.45% 0.83% -0.12% -0.64%
2016 -1.80% -0.65% 1.91% 0.08% 2.12% -2.29% 0.74% 1.39% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.49%
Volatility Arbitrage was off to a good start when the S&P 500 index fell -2.45% on September 9th, amid new concerns
that the Federal Reserve would raise its key interest rate later in the month. The Volatility Arbitrage sub-index lost
-1.71% in three days before recovering and finishing the month slightly positive (+0.08%). Equity index implied volatilities
remained stable while realised volatilities markedly increased4. Short variance swap positions had better returns on the
Euro Stoxx 50 (+0.7%) than on the S&P 500 (-1.0%). In fixed income markets, short swaption straddle positions made
gains in USD (+0.4%) but incurred losses in EUR (-0.4%) as 10 year interest rates remained broadly unchanged with
greater fluctuations in EUR rates5. In FX markets, volatilities remained stable which resulted in average gains of +0.4% for
the three strategies. Finally, diversified commodity volatility arbitrage indices were slightly positive (+0.1%).
Top 3 movers (ranked by 1 month returns)
Sep-16
Arbitrage - Volatility YTD return 1Y Sharpe 1Y return
return
1) Credi t Sui s s e Gl obal Carry Sel ector Short Global Equity Variance Swaps 3.5% -0.7% 0.5 7.5%
2) Short
Credi t Sui s s e Adapti ve Vol ati l i ty Index All RolJPY Swaption Straddles
l s JPY 2.3% -2.5% -0.3 -1.2%
3) Barcl ays Europe Short Vari ance Short Euro Stoxx 50 Variance Swaps 1.1% 4.0% 1.2 7.2%
4The. VIX index was down -0.1 to 13.3, the VStoxx index was up +0.4 to 19.8; 20-day realised volatilities went from 5.7% to 15.5% on the S&P 500
index, and from 13.5% to 16.1% on the Euro Stoxx 50. Source: Bloomberg
5 Ten year swap rates were up +4bps in USD, down -1bp in EUR. Their 20-day realised normal volatilities went from 38 to 56bps in EUR, and from 54 to
Research Strategies (CLAXRES Index) +2.30% in Sep, -5.41% in the last 12 months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2012 2.18% -0.50% -1.78% -0.84% -3.05% -0.05% -0.49% 0.29% 0.40% 0.53% 0.36% 1.37% -1.67%
2013 0.88% -0.13% -0.36% 0.03% 1.64% -1.21% 1.35% -0.10% 0.73% -0.11% 0.62% -0.89% 2.44%
2014 2.34% 0.11% 0.49% -1.78% -1.20% 1.20% -2.73% 0.89% -2.39% 0.27% -1.01% 1.23% -2.69%
2015 -1.71% 0.76% 0.69% -1.30% 1.63% 0.08% -2.66% -3.20% -1.19% -1.04% -0.22% 0.81% -7.22%
2016 -3.64% 1.08% 1.80% -1.12% -0.79% -4.33% 0.73% -0.90% 2.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -4.97%
The size factor continued its comeback in September: as an example, the S&P 500 index was down -0.12% while the
Russell 2000 was up +0.95% (year to date, these returns are +7.68% versus +11.41%, including dividends)6. Accordingly,
ten out of sixteen quality, value, and dividend factor indices posted gains (averaging +1.8%). The best performance
however came from Société Générale’s Wise Japan index which (from what we could derive) was positioned in a stock
that received a takeover offer for more than twice its price, resulting in an impressive +12.1% return (see table below).
In addition all three US merger arbitrage indices finished positive (+0.6% on average). So far this year, this was the best
month for the Research sub-index, which otherwise has had disappointing returns.
Top 3 movers (ranked by 1 month returns)
Sep-16
Economic Indicators - Research YTD return 1Y Sharpe 1Y return
return
1) Soci ete General e WISE Japan L/S Japan Equity Long/Short Quality and Momentum Factors 12.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.3%
2) Soci ete General e WISE Long Short Europe Equity Long/Short Quality and Momentum Factors 2.2% -4.4% -0.3 -2.0%
3) Barcl ays Q-MA US Merger Arbitrage 1.3% -1.9% -1.0 -6.6%
Macro Strategies (CLAXMAC Index) -0.35% in Sep, +4.06% in the last 12 months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2012 0.83% 0.28% -0.31% -0.27% -2.47% -0.17% 0.30% 0.59% 0.07% -0.71% -0.31% 0.06% -2.12%
2013 -0.56% -0.67% 0.04% -1.06% 0.72% 0.64% -0.80% 0.25% -0.84% -1.08% -0.48% -1.74% -5.46%
2014 -0.33% -2.25% -0.04% 0.16% 1.81% 0.31% -0.60% 0.24% 0.59% -0.16% 0.29% -0.60% -0.64%
2015 -0.55% -0.49% 0.22% -0.55% -0.04% -2.19% 1.72% -0.20% 0.57% 1.10% 0.29% 0.06% -0.10%
2016 0.80% 1.79% -0.38% -0.37% -0.95% 1.08% 1.27% -0.33% -0.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.57%
The Macro sub-strategy was the only negative return in September, down -0.35%. As in August, commodity
backwardation positions suffered losses (-0.8% across 17 strategies), caused by a rally in steeper commodity curves (e.g.
WTI and Brent crude oil, where active contracts gained +6.5% and +4.6% respectively) while less steep curves traded
lower (e.g. Natural Gas, where the active contract lost -3.2%)7. Equity macro positions made gains (+0.3% on average)
both with turn of the month and EM outperformance signals. Fixed income macro strategies lost on the steepening of
the 2Y-10Y swap curve in USD8. FX macro signals finished unchanged (+0.01%) as value convergence strategies within
G10 currencies produced mixed results, ranging from 0.9% to -1.8% depending on the selection9. Finally, multi-asset
macro allocation strategies finished modestly higher, +0.3% on average.
Top 3 movers (ranked by 1 month returns)
Sep-16
Economic Indicators - Macro YTD return 1Y Sharpe 1Y return
return
1) Credi t Sui s s e Commodi ty Backwardati onCommodity
L/S Backwardation - Equal Weights 2.7% -0.7% 0.6 8.4%
2) Credi t Sui s s e FX Metri cs ToT Trade Balance Based FX Macro Strategy 1.7% -2.4% -0.3 -2.0%
3) Commodity
Morgan Stanl ey Commodi ty Backwardati on StrategyBackwardation - DJUBS Weights 1.4% 0.6% 0.4 3.1%
6 Similarly the MSCI World index was up +0.36% while the MSCI World Small Cap index was up +1.28%. Source: Bloomberg
7 Nov 2016 to 2017 steepness stood at +9.4% and +8.2% for WTI and Brent crude on August 31st. It was at +3.8% for Natural Gas. Source: Bloomberg
8 The USD 2Y versus 10Y swap spread went from 39 to 46 bps in September. Source: Bloomberg
9 Losing positions (for the value trade) were short NOK (up +4.4%) and long GBP (down -1.3%). Winners were long JPY (up +1.9% ). Source: Bloomberg.
Trend-Following Strategies (CLAXTRF Index) +0.59% in Sep, +0.54% in the last 12 months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2012 -0.63% -0.68% -0.72% 0.27% 1.28% -2.17% 1.01% -0.37% -0.98% -1.12% 0.11% -0.00% -3.99%
2013 0.56% -0.32% 0.40% 0.97% -0.10% -0.12% 0.05% -0.76% 0.54% 1.60% 0.45% -0.08% 3.23%
2014 -1.29% -0.20% -0.60% 0.49% 0.99% 0.82% -1.30% 0.91% 0.35% -0.39% 2.01% 0.91% 2.66%
2015 1.82% -0.36% 0.33% -0.62% -0.00% -2.08% 0.73% -1.01% 0.60% -0.32% 0.82% -1.36% -1.51%
2016 0.68% 1.01% -1.21% 0.24% -0.22% 1.75% -0.05% -1.33% 0.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.43%
Trend following strategies rebounded in September supported in particular by energy, precious metals, and EM currency
prices which extended upward trends11; in addition the banking sector index in Europe lost -3.8%, continuing a
downward trend that started in 201412, which helped equity strategies. Commodity strategies gained +1.0% on average,
and also made the top spot in the table below (+6.0% for J.P. Morgan’s WTI Crude Continuum). Similarly, FX strategies
rose +0.6% with EM focussed algorithms taking the top positions. Equity strategies were up +0.4% on average, the top
spot (+2.8%) achieved by a cross sectional momentum strategy (Deutsche Bank’s Salsa) which was short the European
banking sector. Fixed income strategies finished marginally lower (-0.2%) as markets were broadly unchanged. Finally
multi-asset trend following strategies gained +0.8%, in line with results at individual asset class level set out above.
Top 3 movers (ranked by 1 month returns)
Sep-16
Momentum - Trend Following YTD return 1Y Sharpe 1Y return
return
1) JPMorgan WTI Crude Conti nuum Crude Oil Momentum Strategy 6.0% 16.7% 1.3 36.9%
2) DB Momentum Alpha Commodity Trend Following - 13 Commodities 3.8% -2.2% 0.2 2.5%
3) Barcl ays Armour Multi-Asset Trend Following - Long Only 3.4% 20.7% 1.3 18.2%
10 The S&P 500 index was down -0.12%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was down -0.69%. The Hang Seng index was up +1.39%. The Nikkei 225 index was down
-2.59%. 20-day realised volatilities for the S&P 500 and the Euro Stoxx 50 were up +9.8% and +2.6% respectively. Source: Bloomberg
11 The BCOM energy and precious metal sub-indices were up +4.1% and +1.1%; they were up +19.9% and +10.8% in the six months to 31 August. The
J.P. Morgan EM Currency Index was up +0.8%; it was up +5.2% in the six months to 31 August. Source: Bloomberg
12 The Euro Stoxx Bank index (SX7E) was down -3.8%. It was down -24.8% year to date at the end of August. Source: Bloomberg