Webb 1

Jackson Webb

Phillips

AP Language

7 December 2017

The Islamic State’s Last Days

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has been defeated. A U.S.-backed Syrian force

has driven the violent, extremist group out Raqqa, the capital of ISIS’s self-proclaimed Islamic

state in the Middle East. However, the defeat of ISIS has pulled the curtain back and has exposed

many of the problems that the Middle East faces. The defeat of ISIS created a power vacuum,

and there is a possibility of new extremist groups taking control of the region in the same way

that ISIS took power after the fall of Al-Qaeda. Another possibility is that ISIS will try to

rebrand and revive themselves in other countries. The final problem for the Middle East is also

the most disastrous. The battle against ISIS had acted as a binding force among different parties

in the Middle East, and now that the threat is gone, conflicts between former allies may

reemerge, worse than before. The defeat of ISIS on the outside seems like a step towards peace;

however, upon closer inspection, it exposes old and new conflicts that the Middle East has yet to

face.

ISIS started its reign in early 2013, ruling with an iron grip, intimidating all and

instituting brutal laws. In Syria, ISIS hurt infrastructure by making education harder to come by

and healthcare sparse. According to Nadim Houry of Human Rights Watch on the state of Syria

and the impact that ISIS has had on the country, “Over its four years of control, ISIS has torn

much of the social fabric of the area and emptied its doctors, nurses and teachers.” However, in

2017 ISIS has been weaker than ever, and the caliphate has finally been defeated after joint
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military operations between the Syrian Defense Force (SDF) and major Western powers,

including Turkey and the United States of America (O’Connor). Not many fighters, only a few

dozens remain in the center of ISIS’s capital of Raqqa (Karmon). When ISIS lost its strongholds

in Raqqa, by which it was able to spread propaganda, its ability to influence and gain support in

the region was eliminated (Comerford). However, new groups may attempt to utilize similar

methods to gain power in the region that ISIS has been driven from.

ISIS held a large portion of the Middle East from 2013 to 2017, their control reaching

across Syria, Iraq, and some of Lebanon. While ISIS’s rule was brutal, it was nonetheless a form

of authority. Now that ISIS is gone, a power vacuum has been created and no functional

government has taken its place (Iddon). It is therefore theorized that another extremist group

will take the place of ISIS in the Middle East. This has been seen before. After the reign of Al-

Qaeda, a vacuum was created in the Middle East, and this vacuum was then filled by ISIS. Also

after Operation Iraqi Freedom, jihadi violence continued its cyclical rise and fall because of the

absence of a true Iraqi government (Cambanis). This could have inadvertently caused the growth

of ISIS. Though it is unlikely that ISIS will impact the Middle East after their defeat, ongoing

conflicts ensure that another extremist group will emerge from the ashes (Al-Azm).

Despite ISIS’s defeat, the idea of jihadism does not die with the organization, and the

destruction of ISIS may have little impact on the formation of groups in the future. The problem

could be attributed to the Western powers that strived to destroy ISIS. In the opinion of some,

Western countries care more about the defeat of ISIS than they do about the civilians affected by

the fighting or the ideology that drives the extremism (Houry). Therein lies the issue that the

people living in Syria, Iraq, and all afflicted countries face. The ideology of a jihadist is not just

something that a major world power can take out with a swift, unmanned-drone airstrike.
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Because, as stated by the reporter Milo Comerford, “You can’t kill an idea.” An army may be

able to kill the people backing the idea, but the spread of the idea is the most troubling factor of

extremism. Moreover, ISIS and its ideals reached a global audience and pushing ISIS out of

Raqqa will not do much to stop attacks in the West, and also is not likely to affect global

violence (Comerford). Low-tech attacks like vehicle rammings seen in cities like Nice, France,

that are loosely connected to ISIS will not be stopped through large scale military operations.

With ISIS gone from the Arabian Peninsula and Middle East, the focus of their

extremism has shifted with it. One theory is that ISIS will move their operations from the Middle

East to areas such as North Africa or Yemen to try to rebrand and revive themselves (Karmon).

The spread of ISIS to other countries relates to the fact that you cannot kill an idea, and ISIS

used this to their advantage. Even though loss of crucial territory will make it harder to spread

their ideas, ISIS has a presence on the internet that establishes their permanence. ISIS

revolutionized jihadism by using online propaganda and online distribution channels, and this

establishes its permanence (Comerford).

The spread of ISIS to other regions has already begun. In Yemen, Al-Qaeda in the

Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has taken in former ISIS members to increase their numbers

(Karmon). Taking in these new members may cause a new emergence in extremism. Also,

tribesmen in the Sinai Desert are actively fighting off the remnants of ISIS, and the former

Syrian ISIS members could join them (Karmon).

Much like what happened in 2014 with the defeat of Al-Qaeda, forces that once fought

against a common evil now fight each other over old disputes that have only gotten worse. Even

before ISIS grew from small extremist group to the leading proto-state, conflicts throughout the

Middle East threatened to destabilize the region. According to Thanassis Cambanis, “With the
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fall of Raqqa, the sad story will pick up exactly where it left off in 2014.” This means fighting

bloody conflicts over old disputes. New problems also have arisen, like the movement for

Kurdish Independence, which is heavily disputed by Turkey (French). The Kurds are not only

fighting with Turkey, however. Though they helped fight ISIS, the Kurds are also actively

fighting the Syrian Government (Al-Azm). In the words of Robert Malley, “The counter-Islamic

State campaign always served as an imperfect cover for regional conflicts and contradictions.”

Opposition to these theories may claim that the U.S. and western powers are getting too

involved in world affairs that do not pertain to them, and like before these actions are only

hurting the region. However, the U.S. and western powers are doing very little. From an

outsider’s perspective, it would seem that the U.S. and the West care only for defeating the

extremists, and not the collateral that comes afterwards (Houry). Once ISIS was pushed out of

the city of Raqqa, the citizens were just left to fend for themselves, and people living in Raqqa

and surrounding areas that are retaken from ISIS complain of lack of energy, water, and medical

treatment (Houry). This shows that little effort is put into helping with the problems after conflict

is finished.

In conclusion, ISIS’s defeat in the Syrian city of Raqqa has had a gilded effect on the

Middle East, and world as a whole. While on the outside the Middle East looks more peaceful,

the real effects will take time to be seen, especially in light of the risk of new extremist groups, a

revival of ISIS, and infighting of former allies.

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Works Cited

Cambanis, Thanassis. “The War on ISIS Held the Middle East Together.” The Atlantic, Atlantic

Media Company, 17 Oct. 2017,

www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/raqqa-isis-middle-east-iraq-

kurds/543120/.

Comerford, Milo. “Can ISIS Survive the Defeat In Raqqa?” Yahoo! News, Yahoo!, 18 Oct. 2017,

www.yahoo.com/news/isis-survive-defeat-raqqa-155142905.html.

Contributors, FP, and Amr Al-Azm. “What Comes After ISIS?” Foreign Policy, Foreign Policy,

10 July 2017, www.foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/10/what-comes-after-isis-islamic-state-

mosul-iraq-syria/.

French, David. “As ISIS Falls, Don't Forget the Lessons of the Recent Past.” National Review,

National Review, 16 Oct. 2017, www.nationalreview.com/node/452731.

Iddon, Paul. “What Happens after ISIS and Who Will Fill the Power Vacuum?” Rudaw.net,

Rudaw Media Network, 13 Aug. 2017, www.rudaw.net/english/analysis/13082017.

Karmon, Dr Ely. “The Day after ISIS: the Middle East after the Islamic State | Where Will ISIS

Regroup?” BICOM, BICOM Research Series, 10 Oct. 2017,

www.bicom.org.uk/blogpost/day-isis-middle-east-islamic-state-will-isis-regroup/.

O'Connor, Tom. “Who Are the 68 Nations Gathering to Hear Trump's Plan on ISIS?” Newsweek,

Newsweek, 26 Mar. 2017, www.newsweek.com/us-allies-middle-east-nations-isis-trump-

fight-571876.