38 tayangan

Diunggah oleh NERRU PRANUTA M

This research was conducted based on the findings that students have difficulties
in learning multiplication of two numbers, especially multiplication of two digits with two
digits and multiplication of two digits with three digits. This research is a pre-experimental
design. The design that is used in this study is The One Shot Case Study. The purpose of this
study is to find out: (1) to implement of Matematika GASING into the concept of
multiplication (2) to know the influence of Matematika GASING toward students learning
outcome (3) to know the positive influence of students interest and motivation simultaneously
to mathematics learning outcome in Matematika GASING. The population in this study is 5th
grade students in Cihuni I elementary school in Kelapa Dua Tangerang districts. The
sampling technique used purposive sampling and data collected by test and questionaire. The
data findings analyzed by using anova with significance with level 5%. The expected results
this research are: (1) Matematika GASING can be implement into the concept of
multiplication (2) there is positive influence of Matematika GASING toward students
learning outcome, (3) there is positive influence of students interest and motivation
simultaneously to mathematics learning outcome in Matematika GASING.
Keywords and Phrases: study interest, study motivation, learning outcome, and
Matematika GASING.
Author : Asri Gita, Nia Yuniarti, Nerru Pranuta M

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Conference on Mathematics and Its Applications

Proceedings

ISBN: 978-602-50020-0-7

Editors:

Bevina D. Handari

Dipo Aldila

Gianina Ardaneswari

Reviewers :

Titin Siswantining, Mila Novita, Denny Riama Silaban, Maman Faturahman,

Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Herni Utami, Al Jupri, Zulkardi, Yusep Suparman, Yudi Satria,

Yudhie Andriyana,Yekti Widyaningsih, Yaya S. Kusumah, I Wayan Mangku,

Utriweni Mukhaiyar, Turmudi, Syafrizal, Suwanda, Sutarto Hadi, Supama,

Sugi Guritman, Suarsih Utama, Sri Haryatmi, Rianti Setiadi, Pasrun Adam,

Setiawan, Ratu Ilma, Nurtiti Sunusi, Nurdin, Nur Iriawan, Nora Hariadi,

Nelson Nainggolan, Mukhsar, Lienda Noviyanti, Kiki Ariyanti Sugeng, Ipung Yuwono,

Indah Emilla Wijayanti, Hengki Tasman, Hendri Murfi, Ema Carnia, Edi Cahyono,

Djati Kerami, Dipo Aldila, Dedi Rosadi, Dafik, Dadan Kusnandar, Ch.Rini,

Bevina D. Handari, Atiek Iriany, Asrul Sani, Asari, Aryadi Wijaya, Anang Kurnia,

Al Haji Akbar Bachtiar, Al Sutjijana, Ahmad Fauzan, Anak Agung Gede Ngurah,

Agung Lukito

Penerbit:

The Indonesian Mathematical Society

Redaksi:

Gedung CAS Lantai IV, Institut Teknologi Bandung,

Jalan Ganesha No. 10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia.

Dilarang memperbanyak buku ini dalam bentuk dan

cara apapun tanpa ijin tertulis dari penerbit.

IICMA 2015

rd

the 3 IndoMS International Conference on

Mathematics and Its Applications

Proceedings

rd th

November 3 and 4 2015

Depok, Indonesia

CONTENTS

FOREWORDS …………………………………………………………………………..........i

President of the Indonesian Mathematical Society (IndoMS) …………….……….…..ii

Chair of the Committee IICMA 2015 ……………………………………………...….....…iii

Acknowledgement …………………………………………………………………..…...…iv

INVITED SPEAKER

ADVANCES IN STATISTICAL GENOMICS OF HUMAN COMPLEX TRAITS AND

DISEASES

Beben Benyamin ……………………………………………………………....………x

MODELLING, PREDICTING AND UNDERSTANDING KIDNEY DEVELOPMENT

Nicholas A.Hamilton ………………………………………………........……………xi

A SIMPLE INTERVENTION FOR DENGUE TRANSMISSION; HOW FAR

MODELING CAN GO

E. Soewono ……………………………………………………………..……………xii

ERROR-CORRECTING PAIRS FOR PUBLIC-KEY CRYPTOSYSTEMS

Ruud Pellikaan and Irene Marques-Corbella ……………………………………..…xiii

ON CLASS OF 𝝀-MODULES

Indah E. Wijayanti, M. Ardiansyah, Puguh W.Prasetya ……………………………..xiv

STATISTICS IN THE ERA OF BIG DATA: A CASE IN ROBUST STATISTICS

Maman A. Djauhari …………………………………………………………………..xv

ACTUARIAL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA

Budi TA Tampubolon ………………………………………….……………...…….xvi

PARALLEL SESSIONS

BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEMS FOR A CLASS OF HAMILTON-JACOBI-

BELLMAN EQUATIONS

Muhammad Kabil Djafar, Yudi Soeharyadi, Hendra Gunawan …………...……….….1

BOUNDED SETS IN FINITE DIMENSIONAL N-NORMED SPACES

Esih Sukaesih and Hendra Gunawan ………………….………………………….……8

THE STOCHASTIC SI MODEL IN A SINGLE AREA: COMPARISON WITH THE

DETERMINISTIC SI MODEL AND REAL DATA

Benny Yong, Livia Owen, Elvina Octora …………………..….……………………..13

v

INVESTIGATING THE ACCURACY OF BPPT FLYING WING UAV’S

LINEARIZED EQUATION OF MOTION COMPARED TO BPPT-04C SRITI

FLIGHT TEST DATA

Jemie Muliadi ………………………..……………………………….……..……….24

DETERMINATION OF FISHERMEN POVERTY ALLEVIATION PROGRAM

USING ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS IN PARIGI MOUTONG, CENTRAL

SULAWESI PROVINCE, INDONESIA

Sutikno, Soedarso, Sukardi, Syamsuddin HM, Yusman Alharis, Kartika Nur ‘Anisa ...33

CLASSIFICATION DATA OF CANCER USING FUZZY C-MEANS WITH

FEATURE SELECTION

Bona Revano, Zuherman Rustam …………………………………………..………...40

ON THE RATE OF CONSTRAINED ARRAYS

Putranto Utomo and Ruud Pellikaan ………………………….……..……….………49

ERROR-CORRECTING PAIRS FOR A PUBLIC-KEY CRYPTOSYSTEM

Ruud Pellikan and Irene Marquez-Corbella ……………………...………………..…57

RAINBOW CONNECTION NUMBER AND STRONG RAINBOW CONNECTION

NUMBER OF THE GRAPH (𝒅𝟐(𝑷𝒏) + 𝑲𝟏)

Diah Prastiwi and Kiki A. Sugeng ……………………………………………...…….66

ENCRYPTION ALGORITHM USING NEW MODIFIED MAP FOR DIGITAL

IMAGE

Suryadi M.T., Maria Yus Trinity Irsan, Yudi Satria …………………………..…..….71

FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE INFIDELITY TENDENCY FOR WORKERS AND

SCHOLARS IN JAKARTA

Rianti Setiadi,Dini Riyani, Yanny Arumsari ……………………...……….…………79

FACTORS AFFECTING THE AGREEMENT TOWARDS LEGALIZATION OF

LGBT MARRIAGE LEVEL

Rianti Setiadi1, Rosi Melati ……...…………………………..………..……………. 86

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN JOB-DISTRESS AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS

AMONG EMPLOYEES IN JAKARTA

Rianti Setiadi, Titin Siswantining, Baizura Fahma, Astari Karamina ……..……….…92

REGRESSION (GWBNBNR)

Ahmad Fatih Basitul Ulum, Purhadi and Wahyu Wibowo …………..……………. 100

vi

THE POISSON INVERSE GAUSSIAN (PIG) REGRESSION IN MODELING THE

NUMBER OF HIV NEW CASES (CASE STUDY IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE IN

2013)

Sayu Made Widiari, Purhadi, I Nyoman Latra ………………………………..….…106

SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND MODELLING OF VILLAGE LEVEL POVERTY (A

CASE STUDY: POVERTY MODELLING IN PATI REGENCY)

Duto Sulistiyono, Ismaini Zain, and Sutikno …...….…………………….………… 115

MIXED ESTIMATOR OF KERNEL AND MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION

LINEAR SPLINE TRUCATED IN NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION

Ali Akbar Sanjaya, I Nyoman Budiantara, Bambang Widjanarko Otok................….124

NONPARAMETRIC MIXED REGRESSION MODEL: TRUNCATED

LINEAR SPLINE AND KERNEL FUNCTION

Rory, I Nyoman Budiantara, Wahyu Wibowo ……………...…………...………..…133

SMALL AREA ESTIMATION WITH BAYESIAN APPROACH (CASE STUDY:

PROPORTIONS OF DROPOUT CHILDREN IN POVERTY)

Amalia Noviamti1, and Kartika Fithriasari, Irhamah ………...………………..……143

AN APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN ADAPTIVE LASSO QUANTILE REGRESSION

TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF RETURN TO EDUCATION ON EARNING

Zablin, Irhammah, and Dedy Dwi Prastyo ……………...……………………..……151

HIERARCHICAL BAYES MODELING IN SMALL AREA FOR ESTIMATING

UNEMPLOYMENT PROPORTION UNDER COMPLEX SURVEY

Arip Juliyanto, Heri Kuswanto, Ismaini Zain …………………...………...…...……160

FOOD INSECURITY STRUCTURE IN PAPUA AND WEST PAPUA

Agustin Riyanti1, Vita Ratnasari, Santi Puteri Rahayu …………….…………….…169

FORECASTING ON INDONESIAN’S FISHERY EXPORT VALUE USING ARIMA

AND NEURAL NETWORK

Eunike W. Parameswari, Brodjol S.S Ulama, Suhartono ………………...…………176

SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE POISSON (SAR POISSON) MODEL TO DETECT

INFLUENTIAL FACTORS TO THE NUMBER OF DENGUE HAEMORRHAGIC

FEVER PATIENTS FOR EACH DISTRICT IN THE PROVINCE OF DKI JAKARTA

Siti Rohmah Rohimah, Sudarwanto, Ria Arafiyah ……………...…………….…….183

LOSS SEVERITY DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION OF OPERATIONAL RISK

USING GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODEL FOR LOSS DISTRIBUTION APPROACH

Seli Siti Sholihat, Hendri Murfi ……………………………………..………………191

vii

THE CALCULATION OF AGGREGATION ECONOMIC CAPITAL FOR

OPERATIONAL RISK USING A CLAYTON COPULA

Nurfidah Dwitiyanti, Zuletane Maska, Hendri Murfi, Siti Nurrohmah ……....……..199

INCREASING THE STUDENTS’ MATHEMATICAL COMMUNICATION SKILL

FOR JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL BY APPLYING REACT (RELATING,

EXPERIENCING, APPLYING, COOPERATING, AND TRANSFERRING)

LEARNING STRATEGY

Della Afrilionita ……………………...………………………………………..……208

INVESTIGATING STUDENTS’ SPATIAL VISUALIZATION IN THE

PROPERTIES OF SOLID FIGURE BY USING DAILY LIFE CONTEXT

Lestariningsih …………………..…….…………………………………………….215

USING MATEMATIKA GASING IN LEARNING MATHEMATICS FOR THREE

DIGIT ADDITION

Aloysius Ajowembun, Falenthino Sampuow,Wiwik Wiyanti, Johannes H. Siregar

.............................................................................................................................................220

IMPLEMENTATION OF MATEMATIKA GASING ADDITION OF MANY

NUMBERS FOR MATRICULATION STUDENTS AT STKIP SURYA,

TANGERANG

Jenerson Otniel Duwit, Delson Albert Gebze,Wiwik Wiyanti, Johannes H. Siregar...227

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MATEMATIKA GASING ON MULTIPLICATION

CONCEPT TOWARD INTEREST, STUDY MOTIVATION, AND STUDENT

LEARNING OUTCOME

Asri Gita, Nia Yuniarti, Nerru Pranuta M. …………………...……………..……….234

THE DEVELOPMENT OF PALOPO LOCAL CONTEXT LEARNING MODEL

(MODIFIED COOPERATIVE LEARNING TECHNIQUES; THINK PAIR SHARE

AND PROBLEM-BASED LEARNING TECHNIQUES)

Patmaniar, and Darma Ekawati ………………………...……………...……………243

viii

INVITED SPEAKERS

ix

ADVANCES IN STATISTICAL GENOMICS OF HUMAN COMPLEX TRAITS AND

DISEASES

BEBEN BENYAMIN

CENTRE FOR NEUROGENETICS AND STATISTICAL GENOMICS,

QUEENSLAND BRAIN INSTITUTE, THE UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND,

ST LUCIA, BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, 4072|

b.benyamin@uq.edu.au

Abstract. Since the completion of the Human Genome Project (2003), we have seen dramatic advances

in efforts to dissect the genetic causes of human complex traits and diseases. More than 2000 genetic

variants have been implicated in complex traits and diseases, which some are leading to clinical

applications. These advances were accelerated by the combination of large-scale genomics projects (e.g.

the International HapMap Project and 1000Genome Project), advances in high throughput genomic

technologies (e.g. sequencing and microarray) and the availability of large-scale sample collections

enriched with phenotypic and clinical information. These big data created huge challenges associated with

its statistical analyses. In this lecture, I will discuss some of the results from our research on the statistical

analyses of these genomics data. I will start with the estimation of phenotypic variance due to genetic factors

using pedigree data and genomic data. I will then discuss about the identification of genetic variants

affecting complex traits/diseases and their use in predicting disease. I will also briefly discuss about the

current progress and challenges in the analyses of additional omics data, such as epigenomics.

Keywords: Statistic, Genetic, Genomic, Gene, Complex trait, Complex disease.

x

MODELLING, PREDICTING AND UNDERSTANDING KIDNEY DEVELOPMENT

NICHOLAS A HAMILTON

DIVISION OF GENOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT AND DISEASE AND DIVISION OF CELL BIOLOGY

AND MOLECULAR MEDICINE

INSTITUTE FOR MOLECULAR BIOSCIENCE, THE UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND,

BRISBANE 4064, QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA|

n.hamilton@imb.uq.edu.au

Abstract. Kidneys of equal size can vary 10-fold in the number of nephrons, the fundamental filtering

unit of the kidney, at birth. Discovering what regulates such variation has been hampered by a lack of

quantitative analysis to define kidney development. Factors leading to the formation of the ureteric tree, the

branching structure from which nephrons hang, are also poorly understood. However, recent advances in

microscopy such as Optical Projection Tomography and confocal imaging have enabled us to image mouse

kidneys at high resolution at varying developmental stages. In recent work, my group in collaboration with

the developmental biology groups of Prof. Melissa Little and Assoc. Prof. Ian Smyth created a high-

throughput large-scale pipeline for the multi-dimensional analysis of kidney imaging [1]. This has created

a massively dense dataset that describes the multiple stages of kidney development. For example, in one

data set we have some 32 ureteric trees imaged of normal mouse kidneys at 7 distinct stages of development

together with 28 Tgf β+/- mutant trees at the same stages. Using software developed by our collaborators,

the imaging for these trees was segmented and connectivity graph created for each tree. These graphs are

rooted trees in the graph theory sense. We developed new graph algorithms to “overlay” and compare these

trees to give a measure of discordance between trees as well as measures of inclusion [2].

These methods were used to answer questions such as: is there a structural difference between mutant trees

and controls [2]; and is the branch formation stereotypic [3], that is follows essentially the same patterning

in all kidneys across or is there a “random” element? The later question is particularly exciting as it would

suggest that branch formation is tightly regulated and hence potentially might be manipulated to increase

branch/nephron formation. In this presentation I will describe our analysis pipeline and algorithms as well

as recent results we have obtained on defining the rules for branch patterning.

Time permitting, I will also describe a rate-based proliferation model of compartments in the kidney that

enabled us to model both growth and movements of cells between compartments [4].

Key words and Phrases : Kidney, Development, Modelling, Graph alignment, Bio-imaging, Ureteric tree.

xi

A SIMPLE INTERVENTION FOR DENGUE TRANSMISSION;

HOW FAR MODELING CAN GO

E. SOEWONO

The Department Of Mathematics, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

esoewono@math.itb.ac.id

Abstract. Problem solving of real world problems is in reality a delicate process, compromising

between complication of the real field conditions and sophistication of the mathematical model. It

is natural that the more real situations to fit, the more complications to add in the model, which may

end up even with no mathematical tools to solve. In the case of Dengue transmission, basic model

in the form of Host-Vector (SIR-SI) Esteva-Vargas type has been known with an endemic threshold

which is defined as the basic reproductive ratio of the disease transmission. This basic model is

necessary to be understood for understanding biological phenomena in the “ideal” situation, such

as which critical biological parameters are crucial in the appearance or disappearance of t he endemic

state. From the basic and simple model, gradual steps of model improvement, accommodating more

proper assumptions, can be constructed naturally, provided enough information is given from the

field. Here a real situation which is easily found in the intervention program for Dengue

transmission is presented. Consider an intervention program which was implemented in a region

where pre-school and elementary school children were instructed to wear “full outfit” (long-sleeved

cloth and trousers for boys, and long skirts for girls) during the school period. It was found that in

the year where the program was implemented, the Dengue outbreak was lower than the previous

year before the start of the intervention. This problem looks simple and simple model c an be

constructed, but then the model is only based on very “ideal” situations which are not representing

the real situation. A step-by-step model constructions and improvement is discussed in this

presentation, along with related mathematical tools to investigate the complication of the models

Key words and Phrases : Problem Solving, Mathematical Model, Dengue.

xii

ERROR-CORRECTING PAIRS FOR PUBLIC-KEY CRYPTOSYSTEMS

RUUD PELLIKAAN1 AND IRENE MARQUES-CORBELLA2

1

Discrete Mathematics, Techn. Univ. Eindhoven P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands

g.r.pellikaan@tue.nl

2

SECRET Project-Team - INRIA, Paris-Rocquencourt

B.P. 105, 78153 Le Chesnay Cedex France

irene.marquez-corbella@inria.fr

key cryptosystems since it is conjectured to be secure against quantum computer attacks. Many

families of codes have been proposed for these cryptosystems. One of the mai n requirements is

having a high performance t-bounded decoding algorithm which is achieved in the case of a t-error-

correcting pair (ECP). In this article the class of codes with a t-ECP is proposed for the McEliece

cryptosystem. The hardness of retrieving the t-ECP for a given code, in particular for algebraic

geometry codes, is considered. Recent results will be surveyed. See references [1 –8] below

Key words and Phrases : Code-Based Cryptography, Error-Correcting Pairs, Distinguisher

REFERENCES

1. Couvreur, A., M´arquezCorbella, I., Pellikaan, R.: A polynomial time attack against algebraic

geometry code based public key cryptosystems. In: Proceedings IEEE-ISIT 2014, p. 1446 (2014)

2. Couvreur, A., MrquezCorbella, I., Pellikaan, R.: Cryptanalysis of public-key cryptosystems that use

subcodes of algebraic geometry codes. In: Coding Theory and Applications: 4th International Castle

Meeting, Palmela, pp. 133–140 (2014)

3. M´arquez-Corbella, I., Mart´ınez-Moro, E., Pellikaan, R.: The non-gap sequence of a subcode of a

generalized Reed-Solomon code. Designs, Codes and Cryptography 66(1-3), 317–333 (2013)

4. M´arquez-Corbella, I., Mart´ınez-Moro, E., Pellikaan, R.: On the unique representation of very strong

algebraic geometry codes. Designs, Codes and Cryptography 70(1-2), 215–230 (2014)

5. M´arquez-Corbella, I., Mart´ınez-Moro, E., Pellikaan, R., Ruano, D.: Computational aspects of

retrieving a representation of an algebraic geometry code. Journal of Symbolic Computation vol. 64,

pp. 67–87, 2014. 64 (2014)

6. M´arquez-Corbella, I., Pellikaan, R.: Error-correcting pairs for a public-key cryptosystem. preprint

arXiv:1205.3647 (2012)

7. M´arquez-Corbella, I., Pellikaan, R.: Error-correcting pairs and arrays from algebraic geometry codes.

Proc. Appl. Computer Algebra, M´alaga, pp. 129–132 (2013)

8. M´arquez-Corbella, I., Pellikaan, R.: Error-correcting pairs: a new approach to codebased

cryptography. Proc. Appl. Computer algebra, New York, pp. 1–5 (2014).

xiii

ON CLASS OF 𝝀-MODULES

INDAH E. WIJAYANTI1, M. ARDIANSYAH, PUGUH W. PRASETYO

Mathematics Department, Universitas Gajah Masa, Yogyakara, Indonesia

ind_wijayanti@ugm.ac.id

Abstract. By the ring ℛwe mean any commutative ring with unit and the module 𝑀 means a left ℛ-

module, except we state otherwise. An ℛ-module 𝑀is called a multiplication module if for any submodule

𝑁in 𝑀, there is an ideal 𝐼 in ℛ such that 𝑁 = 𝐼𝑀. Let ℒ(𝑀)be the lattice of submodules of ℛ-module𝑀,

where for any submodules 𝑁and 𝐾 in 𝑀 the ‘join’ and ‘meet’ are defined as

𝑁 ∨ 𝐾 = 𝑁 + 𝐾, 𝑁 ∧ 𝐾 = 𝑁 ∩ 𝐾,

And 𝑁 ≤ 𝐾means 𝑁 ⊆ 𝐾, Especially, for 𝑀 = ℛ we have the lattice of ideals in ℛ and it is denoted by

ℒ(ℛ).

Smith (2014) introduced maps between the lattice of ideals of commutative rings and the lattice of

submodules of anℛ-module 𝑀, i.e. 𝜇 and 𝜆 mappings.

𝜇: ℒ(𝑀) → ℒ(ℛ), 𝑁 → 𝐴𝑚𝑛𝑅 (𝑀/𝑁) (0.1)

𝜆: ℒ(ℛ) → ℒ(𝑀), 𝐼 → 𝐼𝑀 (0.2)

The mappings (0.1) and (0.2) are motivated by the relationship of submodules and ideals in a multiplication

module. Some necessary and sufficient conditions for the maps to be a lattice homomorphisms were studied

by Smith (2014). In this work we define a class of modules as following:

𝜆 = {𝑀|(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)𝑀 = 𝐵𝑀 ∩ 𝐶𝑀, ∀𝐵, 𝐶 finitely generate indeals ofℛ},

And observe the properties of the class. We give a sufficient conditions for the module and the ring such

that the class 𝜆 is a hereditary pretorsion class. Some main results are given below.

Proposition 1. If 𝑀 is a Dedekind divisible ℛ-module, then:

𝑀is a 𝜆-module.

For any 𝑁 ∈ 𝜎[𝑀], 𝑁 ∈ 𝜆.

The class of 𝜆 is closed under submodlues and homomorphic images.

Proposition 2. Let 𝑀 be a faithful multiplication module and Pr𝑢̈ fer.Then 𝜎[𝑀] ⊆ 𝜆.

Corollary 3. Let 𝑅 be a semisimple ring. 𝑀a chain ℛ-module, faithful and a subgenerator for all

semisimpleℛ-modules. Then [𝑀] = 𝜆.

Keywords and Phrases: lattice of ideals; lattice of submodules, multiplication modules, class of modules.

xiv

STATISTICS IN THE ERA OF BIG DATA: A CASE IN ROBUST STATISTICS

MAMAN A. DJAUHARI

RESEARCH FELLOW

INSTITUTE FOR MATHEMATICAL RESEARCH (INSPEM)

UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA

maman_abd@upm.edu.my

Abstract. 4-V (Variety, Velocity, Veracity and Volume) is a new paradigm in dealing with data-based

information industry. This is an immediate and direct consequence of all business activities in Big Data.

The term “big” is not only big in volume but most importantly big in terms of complexity; complexity in

its variety of the problems, in computational velocity, and in methodological veracity. In this talk, an

implementation of 4-V paradigm in recent development of statistics will be illustrated for the case of robust

statistics. Discussion will begin with the evolution of FMCD since it was introduced in 1985. It is the most

popular and widely used robust method for estimating location and scale. Mathematically speaking, the

theory of FMCD consists of (i) how to order observation vectors, and (ii) how to determine the most

concentrated data subset. To increase the computational velocity of that method, by keeping its

methodological veracity, most of the researchers have been focusing their works on the second step.

However, since the first step involves matrix inversion, FMCD is still not apt for high dimensional data. To

overcome that obstacle, here we introduce a new method of observation vectors ordering based on the

concept of data depth. We show that its computational velocity is very promising.

xv

ACTUARIAL CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA

BUDI TA TAMPUBOLON

Chief of PAI School Division and President Director Of BNI Life, Indonesia

budi.tampubolon@bni-life.co.id

Abstract. Gap between demand for and supply of actuaries in the Indonesian market is described.

Cooperation between the Society of Actuaries of Indonesia and local universities in university's

mathematics and statistics course based actuarial certification and need for creation of actuarial

science study programs in universities for better production system of actuarie s in Indonesia are

also shared

xvi

CONTRIBUTED SPEAKERS

xvii

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Analysis

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equations

Muhammad Kabil Djafar1,a), Yudi Soeharyadi2,b), Hendra

Gunawan3,c)

1,2,3Institut Teknologi Bandung

a)

kabildjafar@gmail.com

b)yudish@math.itb.ac.id

c)hgunawan@math.itb.ac.id

Abstract. The Dirichlet and Neumann boundary value problems for a class of

n

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations in the first quadrant of R are considered in this

article. Suitably defined, it is shown that the minimum operator coming from a finitely many

hamiltonians of corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi equations is m accretive. The

Crandall-Liggett theorem for nonlinear semigroup generation implies existence of a mild

solution for the terminal value problems of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Using

symmetries and invariance, Neumann problem and Dirichlet problem of

n

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in the first quadrant of R is governed by a strongly

continuous quasi contractive semigroups, and therefore proving well-posedness.

m -accretive operator, boundary value problem.

1. Introduction

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is a nonlinear partial differential equation

which frequently appears in optimal control. See for example Evans [6], Lions [15],

and Oksendal [16]. This equation is often formulated as a terminal value problem.

For a family of hamiltonian {H } , the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is

expressed as follow

(1)

u = g on Rn {t = T }

given. The unknown function is

n

u :R (0, T ), u = u( x, t ), Du = Dxu = (u x , u x ,...,u x ) .

1 2 n

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman theory, for example Bardi and Dolcetta [3], Evans [6],

Liberzon [13], Lions [15], and Oksendal [16]. Our concern is the

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation with finitely many Hamiltonians

1

{Hi : i = 1,2,..., n} for which the coresponding Hamilton-Jacobi equation

ut Hi (Du) = 0 (i = 1,2,..., n) is well-posed.

Wellposedness of Hamilton-Jacobi equation is considered in many

literatures. See for example Aizawa [1], Burch [4], and Goldstein and Soeharyadi

[7]. They show that the infinitesimal generator Ai coresponding to the hamiltonian

H i is m -accretive in the Banach space of uniformly continuous functions on R n .

We will use this results to show that the generator for the semigroup of the

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, is also m accretive. For this purpose, we

observe m -accretiveness of the operator A as the minimum of collection of

finitely many operators, Au = min { Ai u}in=1 . We do this in Section 2.

Boundary value problem of Hamilton-Jacobi equation is often discussed in

nonlinear partial differential equation, We can see for instance Aizawa [2], Iishi

[12], Lions [14], and Tataru [18]. Odd solutions, even solutions,and how they

correspond to the Dirichlet BVP, Neumann BVP, and mixed BVP for

Hamilton-Jacobi equations was explored in Burch and Goldstein [5]. Symmetries

and invariance of semigroups, and their relation to the boundary value problem is

discussed in Goldstein, Goldstein, and Soeharyadi [8]. Their results are used in

Section 4 to obtain well-posedness of the boundary value problems of

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in the first quadrant of R n .

2. Main Results

2.1. The Minimum of M-Accretive Operators

Let X be a Banach spaces of bounded and uniformly continuous of

functions (BUC) and be any open domain in R n . Let A1 , A2 be m -

accretive operators with domain D( A1 ) = D( A2 ) = D . The minimum A , of the

collection of operators { A1 , A2 } is defined as follows

Au ( x) = (2)

A2u( x) if A2 u(x) A1u(x)

for u D(A) , x .

u v (I A1 )u ( I A1 )v (3)

u v (I A2 )u ( I A2 )v (4)

u v sup{| ( I A1 )u ( x) ( I A1 )v( x) |}

x

(5)

= sup{| (u ( x) v( x)) ( A1u ( x) A1v( x)) |}

x

2

On the other hand, from equation (4) we have

u v sup{| ( I A2 )u ( x) ( I A2 )v( x) |}

x

(6)

= sup{| (u ( x) v( x)) ( A2u ( x) A2v( x)) |}

x

Based on equation (5) and (6) , we have four cases for accretiveness of the

operator A

1. A1u( x) A2u( x), A1v( x) A2v( x) ,

2. A2u( x) A1u( x), A2v( x) A1v( x) ,

3. A1u( x) A2u( x), A2v( x) A1v( x) ,

4. A2u( x) A1u( x), A1v( x) A2v( x) .

For the first case, accretiveness of the operator A follows from the

accretiveness of the operator A1 . Likewise, for the second case, accretiveness

follows from the one of the operator A2 .

A1v( x) = A2v( x) 0 (8)

u v sup{| (u ( x) v( x)) ( A1u ( x) A1v( x)) |}

x

= sup{| (u ( x) v( x)) ( A1u ( x) A1v( x)) |}

x (9)

= sup{| (u ( x) v( x)) ( A1u ( x) ( A2v( x) 0 )) |}

x

= sup{| (u ( x) v( x)) ( A1u ( x) A2 v( x)) 0 |}

x

x

x

= sup{| (u ( x) v( x)) ( Au ( x) Av ( x)) |}

x

= sup{| (u ( x) v( x)) Au ( x) Av ( x) |}

x (11)

= sup{| (u ( x) Au ( x)) (v( x) Av ( x)) |}

x

= sup{| ( I A)u ( x) ( I A)v( x) |}

x

= (I A)u ( I A)v

3

thus, the operator A is accretive.

For the fourth case is similar to the third one. Thus, we can conclude that the

operator A is accretive.

Furthermore, we will show that the operator I A , for > 0 , is

surjective. Lets h X . From m -accretiveness of operator of A1 , A2 , we have

u, v D such that

(I A1 )u = h, ( I A2 )v = h.

Let us define 1 := {x : A1u( x) A2v( x)} , and 2 = \ 1 . Furthermore

we define

u ( x) if x 1

w( x) :=

v( x) if x 2 .

x 1 , then w( x) = u ( x) and Aw( x) = A1u ( x) A2v( x) . Then we have

(I A)w( x) = ( I A1 )u( x) = h( x).

On the other hand, if x \ 1 , then w( x) = v( x) and

Aw( x) = A2v( x) A1u( x) . Then we have

(I A)w( x) = ( I A2 )v( x) = h( x).

Then for any h X , we always have w D such that ( I A) w = h . Thus, the

operator I A is surjective. Since the operator A is accretive and I A is

surjective, then we can conclude that the operator A is m -accretive. By

mathematical induction, this result can be generalize for the minimum of collection

of finitely many m -accretive operators.

Proposition 2.1 If A = {A1 , A2 ,..., An } is a finite collection of m -accretive

operators on Banach space X = ( BUC) , then the operator A = min A is also

m - accretive .

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation is often formulated as a terminal value

problem. To analyze this equation using semigroup approach, let us transform it to

an initial value problem. Introducing new variable s = T t , we have

(12)

u = g on Rn {s = 0}

We then can express the initial value problem of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation

as an abstract Cauchy problem in Banach space X = BUC( )

ut Au = 0, u(0) = g (13)

4

-dissipative, then, by definition, the operator Ai is m -accretive.

Nonlinear semigroups are generated by m -accretive operators. Aizawa [1]

and Burch [4] showed that the operator A = H D defined by Au = H ( Du) on

a suitable domain is densely defined and m -accretive on X . By Crandall-Liggett

theorem, the initial value problem of Hamilton-Jacobi equation is governed by a

strongly continuous contractive nonlinear semigroup T0 = {T (t ) : t 0} . In this

case, u(t ) = T0 (t )u0 , for t > 0 , is the unique mild solution of the Cauchy problem

with the initial data u0 X.

The initial value problem (12) is actually a variant of Hamilton-Jacobi

equation. In this case, the Hamiltonian H is defined as

H ( Du) := min { H i ( Du)}in=1. (14)

-dissipative, then the operator Ai that corresponds to the hamiltonian H i is

m -accretive. Using Proposition 2.1 , and the Crandall-Liggett theorem, the abstract

Cauchy problem (13) that coresponding to the initial value problem of Hamilton-

Jacobi equation (12) , is governed by a semigroup of nonlinear operator T (t ) , and

the solution can be expressed as an evolution of the initial data

u(t ) = T (t )u (0), t > 0.

u (0) = g

We now consider some boundary value problem of the

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation on the first quadrant

Rn = {( x1 , , xn } : xi > 0, i = 1, , n}

of R n . Consider

(15)

u = g on Rn {s = 0}

with Dirichlet boundary condition

u( x, t ) = 0, x Rn (0, T ) (16)

or Neuman boundary condition

u

( x, t ) = 0, x R n (0, T ) (17)

n

n

Soeharyadi [8]. They defined subsets of the Banach space X = BUC(R ) as

follow

5

X e := {u X : u is even}

X so := {u X : u is skew - odd}

They showed that if the hamiltonian H is even, the Hamilton-Jacobi equation with

Neumann condition is governed by a strongly continuous quasi contractive

semigroup Se (t ) : X e X e on BUC(Rn ) . Furthermore, they also showed the

generation case for skew odd hamiltonian H , in an even dimensional n of the

spatial domain. They showed that the Hamilton-Jacobi equation with Dirichlet

condition is governed by a strongly continuous quasi contractive semigroup

Sso (t ) : X so X so on BUC(Rn ) . Direct application of these results to the

minimum operator, hence the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, yields:

1. If each hamiltonian H i is even, for i = 1, , k , then the generalized Neuman

problem (15), (17), is governed by a strongly continuous quasi contractive

semigroup Se (t ) : X e X e on BUC(Rn ) .

2. If each hamiltonian H i is skew odd and the spatial dimension n of R n is

even, the Dirichlet problem (15), (16), is governed by a strongly continuous

quasi contractive semigroup Sso (t ) : X so X so on BUC(Rn ) .

These shows that the spaces X e , X so are invariant under the action of the

restricted semigroups. However, we know that these symmetries (even, skew-odd)

encode boundary condition, namely an even function satisfies generalized Neumann

condition, and skew-odd function satisfies Dirichlet condition on the boundary

Rn . Therefore the above result can be interpreted as well-posedness of BVPs.

Acknowledgement.

This research is supported by Hibah Riset dan Inovasi ITB 2015.

References

[1] S. Aizawa, A semigroups treatment of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation in several

space variables, Hiroshima Math. J 6, 15-30, 1976.

[2] S. Aizawa, A mixed initial and boundary value problem for the

Hamilton-Jacobi equation in several space variables, Funkcial. Ekvac. 9,

139-150, 1966.

[3] M. Bardi and I.C. Dolcetta, Optimal Control and Viscosity Solution of

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation, Birkhauser, 2008.

[4] B.C. Burch, A semigroups treatment of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation in one

space variable, J. Differential Equations 23, 107-124, 1977.

[5] B.C. Burch and J.A Goldstein, Some boundary value problem for the

Hamilton-Jacobi equation, Hiroshima Math J. 8, 223-233, 1978.

[6] L.C. Evans, Partial Differential Equations, American mathematical Society,

USA, 1998.

[7] J. A. Goldstein and Y. Soeharyadi, Regularity of perturbed Hamilton-Jacobi

equations, Nonlinear Analysis 51, 239-248, 2002.

6

[8] J.A. Goldstein, G.A. Goldstein, and Y. Soeharyadi, On symetries, invariances,

and boundary value problems for the Hamilton-Jacobi equation , J. Comp.

Anall.and Appl. 8, 205-222, 2006.

[9] G. R. Goldstein and J. A. Goldstein, Invariant sets for nonlinear operator, In

Stochastics Processes and Functional Analysis (A. Krinik and R. Swift eds ),

Marceel Decker, 141-147, 2004.

[10] G. R. Goldstein and J. A. Goldstein eds, Semigroups of Linear and Nonlinear

Operations and Applications, Springer, 1993.

[11] K.S. Ha, Nonlinear Functional Evolutions in Banach Spaces, Springer,

2003.

[12] Iishi. H, A boundary value problem of the Dirichlet type for Hamilton-Jacobi

equation, Ann. Scuola Norm. Sup. Pisa Cl. Sci, 16, 105-135, 1989.

[13] D. Liberzon, Calculus of Variation and Optimal Control Theory, Princeton

University Press, 2012.

[14] P. L. Lions, Neumann type boundary condition for Hamilton-Jacobi

equations, Duke Math J. 52, 793-820, 1985.

[15] P. L. Lions, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and the Optimal Control of

Stochastic Systems, Proceedings of the International Congress of

Mathematicians, Warszawa, 1983.

[16] B. Oksendal, Stochastic Differential Equations, Springer, 2005.

[17] R. E. Showalter, Monotone Operators in Banach Space and Nonlinear Partial

Differential Equations, American mathematical Society, USA, 1997.

[18] D. Tataru, Boundary value problems for first order Hamilton-Jacobi

equations, Nonlin. Anal. 19, 1091-1110, 1992.

7

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Analysis

Spaces

Esih Sukaesih1,a) and Hendra Gunawan2,b)

1

Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha no. 10 Bandung

2

Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha no. 10 Bandung

a)

esih_s@students.itb.ac.id

b)

hgunawan@math.itb.ac.id

Abstract. Gunawan et al. [5] introduced the notion of boundedness with respect to a linearly

independent set. In this paper we show that in finite dimensional 𝑛-normed spaces, a set 𝐾 ⊂

𝑋 is bounded with respect to a linearly independent set if and only if set 𝐾 is bounded with

respect to another linear independent set. Consequently, a set 𝐾 is bounded if it is so with

respect to any linearly independent set.

Keywords and Phrases: 𝑛-norm, 𝑛-normed spaces, bounded set.

1. Introduction

In 1963, Gähler ([9], [10], [11]) introduced the theory of 2-normed spaces

and extended it to 𝑛-normed spaces. For 𝑛 ∈ ℕ and 𝑋 be a real vector space

(dim(𝑋)≥ 𝑛). A real function ‖∙, ⋯ ,∙‖: 𝑋 𝑛 → [0, ∞) which satisfies the following

conditions for all 𝑥, 𝑥1 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ∈ 𝑋 and for any 𝛼 ∈ ℝ is called an 𝑛-norm,

(2) ‖𝑥1 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ‖ invariant to permutation,

(3) ‖𝛼𝑥1 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ‖ = |𝛼|‖𝑥1 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ‖ for every 𝛼 ∈ ℝ,

(4) ‖𝑥1 + 𝑥, 𝑥2 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ‖ ≤ ‖𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ‖ + ‖𝑥, 𝑥2 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ‖.

Any inner product space (𝑋, 〈∙,∙〉) can be equipped by standard 𝑛-norm ([4],

[6])

8

where geometrically, ‖𝑥1 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ‖ can be interpreted as the volume of 𝑛-

dimensional parallelepiped spanned by 𝑥1 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ∈ 𝑋.

Harikrishnan and Ravindran [7] introduced the notion of boundedness in 2-normed

spaces. Then Kir and Kiziltunc [8] extended it to the boundedness in 𝑛-normed

spaces.

Definition 1.1. Let (𝑋, ‖∙, ⋯ ,∙‖) be a linear 𝑛-normed space, 𝐾 be a nonempty

subset of 𝑋 and 𝑥 ∈ 𝐾 then 𝐾 is said to be 𝑥-bounded if there exist some 𝑀 > 0

such that ‖𝑥, 𝑥2 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ‖ ≤ 𝑀 for all 𝑥2 , ⋯ , 𝑥𝑛 ∈ 𝐾. If for all 𝑥 ∈ 𝐾, 𝐾is 𝑥-bounded

then 𝐾is called a bounded set [8]..

rank(𝐾) ≤ dim(𝑋) and rectified it by the boundedness with respect to a linearly

independent set [5].

Definition 1.2. Let (𝑋, ‖∙, ⋯ ,∙‖) be an 𝑛-normed space, 𝐾 be a nonempty subset of

𝑋 and 𝐴 = {𝑎1 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑚 } be a linearly independent set (𝑚 ≥ 𝑛). Then 𝐾 is called

bounded with respect to 𝐴 if there is 𝑀 > 0 such that

‖𝑥, 𝑎𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑖𝑛 ‖ ≤ 𝑀

for every 𝑥 ∈ 𝐾 and for every {𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑖𝑛 } ⊂ {1, ⋯ , 𝑚} [5].

By means of norms that are introduced in [1], we show the connection of

boundedness with respect to any linearly independent set to that with respect to its

induced norm.

2. Main Results

𝑑), 𝐾 be a nonempty set of 𝑋, and 𝐴 = {𝑎1 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑚 } be a set of 𝑚 linearly

independent vectors in 𝑋 (rank(𝐴) = 𝑚), where 𝑛 ≤ 𝑚 ≤ 𝑑.

By Definition 1.2 , 𝔅𝐴 (𝑋, ‖∙, ⋯ ,∙‖) is collection of bounded set with respect

to 𝐴. If a set 𝐾 is bounded with respect to 𝐴, then 𝐾 ∈ 𝔅𝐴 (𝑋, ‖∙, ⋯ ,∙‖).

Proposition 2.3. [1]Let 𝐴 = {𝑎1 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑛 } is a set of n linearly independent vectors in

𝑋, then

1

2

2

‖𝑥‖𝐴 = [ ∑ ‖𝑥, 𝑎𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑖𝑛 ‖ ]

{𝑖2 ,⋯,𝑖𝑛 }⊂{1,⋯,𝑛}

with respect to 𝐴 and the boundedness in (𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐴 ). Recall that a set 𝐾 is bounded

in a normed space (𝑋, ‖∙‖) if and only if there is 𝑀 > 0 such that ‖𝑥‖ ≤ 𝑀 for

every 𝑥 ∈ 𝐾.

9

Corollary 2.4. Let (𝑋, ‖ ∙, ⋯ ,∙ ‖) be a finite dimensional 𝑛-normed space (dim(𝑋)=

𝑑) which also equipped with a norm ‖∙‖𝐴, 𝐾 be a nonempty set of 𝑋, and 𝐴 =

{𝑎1 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑛 } be a set of 𝑛 linearly independent vectors in 𝑋. A set 𝐾 is bounded with

respect to 𝐴 if and only if 𝐾 is bounded in (𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐴 ).

2

‖𝑥, 𝑎𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑖𝑛 ‖ ≤ 𝑀2 for every 𝑥 ∈ 𝐾 and for every {𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑖𝑛 } ⊂ {1, ⋯ , 𝑛},

1

2 2

such that ‖𝑥‖𝐴 = [∑ {𝑖2 ,⋯,𝑖𝑛 }⊂{1,⋯,𝑛}‖𝑥, 𝑎𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑖𝑛 ‖ ] ≤ √𝑛𝑀.

Conversely, the boundedness of 𝐾 in (𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐴 ) ensure that ‖𝑥, 𝑎𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑖𝑛 ‖ ≤ 𝑀

for every 𝑥 ∈ 𝐾 and for every {𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑖𝑛 } ⊂ {1, ⋯ , 𝑛}.□

Here, we have 𝔅(𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐴 ) is collection of bounded set in (𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐴 ). If a set

𝐾 is bounded in (𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐴 ), then 𝐾 ∈ 𝔅(𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐴 ).

For dim(𝑋)= 𝑛, 𝐴 is a basis of 𝑋. For dim(𝑋)= 𝑑 > 𝑛, let 𝐵 = {𝑏1 , ⋯ , 𝑏𝑑 }

is a basis of 𝑋, that is, a set of 𝑑 linearly independent vectors in 𝑋. The same as

Proposition 2.3, Burhan [1] also introduced a norm derived from an 𝑛-norm and a

basis of 𝑋.

1

2

2

‖𝑥‖𝐵 = [ ∑ ‖𝑥, 𝑎𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑖𝑛 ‖ ]

{𝑖2 ,⋯,𝑖𝑛 }⊂{1,⋯,𝑑}

Corollary 2.6. Let (𝑋, ‖ ∙, ⋯ ,∙ ‖) be a finite dimensional 𝑛-normed space (dim(𝑋)=

𝑑) which also equipped with a norm ‖∙‖𝐵 , 𝐾 be a nonempty set of 𝑋, and 𝐵 =

{𝑏1 , ⋯ , 𝑏𝑑 } be a basis of 𝑋. A set 𝐾 is bounded with respect to 𝐵 if and only if 𝐾 is

bounded in (𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐵 ).

2

‖𝑥, 𝑏𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑏𝑖𝑛 ‖ ≤ 𝑀2 for every 𝑥 ∈ 𝐾 and for every {𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑖𝑛 } ⊂ {1, ⋯ , 𝑑}, such

1

22 𝑑

that ‖𝑥‖𝐵 = [∑ {𝑖2 ,⋯,𝑖𝑛 }⊂{1,⋯,𝑑}‖𝑥, 𝑏𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑏𝑖𝑛 ‖ ] ≤ √( ) 𝑀.

𝑛−1

Conversely, the boundedness of 𝐾 in (𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐵 ) ensure that ‖𝑥, 𝑏𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑏𝑖𝑛 ‖ ≤ 𝑀

for every 𝑥 ∈ 𝐾 and for every {𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑖𝑛 } ⊂ {1, ⋯ , 𝑑}.□

Let 𝔅(𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐵 ) is collection of bounded set in (𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐵 ). If a set 𝐾 is bounded in

(𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐵 ), then 𝐾 ∈ 𝔅(𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐵 ).

10

In finite dimensional spaces, we have equivalence between any two norms.

Consequently for any set of 𝑚 linearly independent vectors 𝐴 = {𝑎1 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑚 } in 𝑋

(𝑛 ≤ 𝑚 ≤ dim(𝑋)), we have the following condition.

Lemma 2.7. Let (𝑋, ‖ ∙, ⋯ ,∙ ‖) be a finite dimensional 𝑛-normed space (dim(𝑋)=

𝑑) which also equipped with a norm ‖∙‖, and 𝐾 be a nonempty set of 𝑋. A set 𝐾 is

bounded with respect to 𝐴 if and only if 𝐾 is bounded in (𝑋, ‖∙‖).

2

‖𝑥, 𝑎𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑎𝑖𝑛 ‖ ≤ 𝑀2 for every 𝑥 ∈ 𝐾 and for every {𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑖𝑛 } ⊂ {1, ⋯ , 𝑚} (by

Corrolary 2.4 for 𝑚 = 𝑛 and by Corrolary 2.6 for 𝑚 = 𝑑), such that ‖𝑥‖𝐴 =

1

2 2 𝑚

[∑ {𝑖2 ,⋯,𝑖𝑛 }⊂{1,⋯,𝑚}‖𝑥, 𝑏𝑖2 , ⋯ , 𝑏𝑖𝑛 ‖ ] ≤ √( ) 𝑀. We have that any two norms

𝑛−1

in finite dimensional space are equivalent. So we have the relation between the

boundedness in (𝑋, ‖∙‖𝐴 ) and the boundedness in (𝑋, ‖∙‖), as desired.□

Let 𝔅(𝑋, ‖∙‖) is collection of bounded set in (𝑋, ‖∙‖). If a set 𝐾 is bounded in

(𝑋, ‖∙‖) then 𝐾 ∈ 𝔅(𝑋, ‖∙‖).

FIGURE 2.1 The relation between the boundedness with respect to 𝐴 and the

boundedness in (𝑋, ‖∙‖).

independent vectors in 𝑋 (𝑛 ≤ 𝑚 ≤ 𝑑). If 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 are sets of 𝑚 linearly

independent vectors in 𝑋, we show that the boundedness in (𝑋, ‖∙‖) ties up the

boundedness with respect to 𝐴1 and the boundedness with respect to 𝐴2 .

Lemma 2.8. Let (𝑋, ‖ ∙, ⋯ ,∙ ‖) be a finite dimensional 𝑛-normed space, 𝐾 be a

nonempty set of 𝑋, 𝐴1 = {𝑎11 , ⋯ , 𝑎1𝑚1 } be a set of 𝑚1 linearly independent

vectors in 𝑋 (𝑛 ≤ 𝑚1 ≤ 𝑑), and 𝐴2 = {𝑎21 , ⋯ , 𝑎2𝑚2 } be a set of 𝑚2 linearly

independent vectors in 𝑋 (𝑛 ≤ 𝑚2 ≤ 𝑑, 𝐴1 ≠ 𝐴2 ). A set 𝐾 is bounded with respect

to 𝐴1 if and only if 𝐾 is bounded with respect to 𝐴2 .

P ROOF . Use Lemma 2.7 and Corollary 2.4 (for 𝑚2 = 𝑛) or use Corollary 2.6

(for 𝑚2 = 𝑑).□

By Lemma 2.8, we show that the boundedness of a set 𝐾 does not depend to

the choice of a linearly independent set.

11

References

[1] M. J. I. Burhan, Teorema Titik Tetap di Ruang Norm-n Berdimensi Hingga,

Master thesis, Institut Teknologi Bandung, (2011)

[2] H. Gunawan, On n-inner product, n-norms, and the Cauchy-Schwarz

inequality, Sci. Math. Jap. Online Vol. 5, 47-54, (2001)

[3] H. Gunawan and M. Mashadi, On n-normed spaces, IJMMS, 27:10, 631-

639, (2001)

[4] H. Gunawan, The space of p-summable sequences and its natural n-norm,

Bull. Ausral. Math. Soc., Vol.64, 137-147, (2001)

[5] H. Gunawan, O. Neswan, and E. Sukaesih, Fixed point theorems on

bounded sets in an n-normed spaces, JMA, Vol. 6-3, 51-58, (2015)

[6] H. Gunawan, On convergence in n-inner product spaces, Bull. Malaysian

Math. Sc. Soc., Second series 25, 11-16, (2002)

[7] P. K. Harikrishnan and K. T. Ravindran, Some properties of Accretive

operators in linear 2-normed spaces, Int. Math. Forum, 6 no 59, 2941-2947,

(2011)

[8] M. Kir and H. Kiziltunc, On fixed point theorems for contraction mappings

in n-normed spaces, Applied Math. Information Sci. Letters, 2 (2014), 59-

64, (2014)

[9] S. Gähler, Lineare 2-normierte Räume, Math. Nachr., 28, 1-43, (1964)

[10] S. Gähler, Untersuchungen Uber Verallgemeinerte m-Metrische Räume I,

Math. Nachr. 40, 165-189., (1969)

[11] S. Gähler, Untersuchungen Uber Verallgemeinerte m-Metrische Räume II,

Math. Nachr. 40, 229-264., (1969)

[12] E. Kreyzig, Introductiory Functional Analysis with Applications, John

Wiley & Sons, New York., (1978)

12

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Applied Math

Comparison with The Deterministic SI Model

and Real Data

Benny Yong1,a), Livia Owen2,b), Elvina Octora3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Information Technology and Science

Parahyangan Catholic University, Jalan Ciumbuleuit 94 Bandung 40141

a)

benny_y@unpar.ac.id

b)

livia.owen@unpar.ac.id

c)

octorasoem@gmail.com

important to know the relationship between these models and the results obtained from the

models. Here we discuss the stochastic SI (Susceptible-Infected) model in a single area. Solution

of the stochastic SI model will be solved numerically using the Euler-Maruyama method. Data

SARS from WHO in 2003 in Singapore and Hong Kong will be used to compare solution of the

deterministic and stochastic SI models with the real data.

Keywords: deterministic, stochastic, stochastic differential equation, Euler-Maruyama method

1. Introduction

Mathematical models are used in many real problems, for example in

predicting the weather, the predator and prey problem, and the dynamics of the

population in the spread of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases that can

be modeled by mathematical models. This paper will discuss about a mathematical

model for the spread of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) using data of

infected cases in Singapore and Hong Kong in 2003.

Mathematical models can be formed in deterministic or stochastic.

Deterministic models are fully determined by the parameter values and initial

conditions while stochastic models possess some inherent randomness. Some

mathematical models for infectious diseases are solved in deterministic, for

example on a mathematical model for dengue fever, tuberculosis, and HIV ([3],

[2], [7]). In deterministic models, the solution is found with solving system of

differential equations. Usually, we found the equilibrium points and analyze its

stabilities. There are many methods to solve stochastic models numerically. In this

paper, the solution of stochastic SI model in a single area will be solved

numerically by using Euler-Maruyama method. Numerical simulations using

MATLAB will compared the solution of deterministic and stochastic model with

the real data.

13

2. Main Results

2.1. Deterministic SI Model in A Single Area

Based on the assumptions and transmission diagram given in paper Octora et

al. [6], the SI (Susceptible-Infected) model in a single area is given by:

𝑑𝑆(𝑡) 𝛽𝑆(𝑡)𝐼(𝑡)

𝑑𝑡

= 𝑎 − 𝑆(𝑡)+𝐼(𝑡) − 𝑏𝑆(𝑡) + 𝑑𝐼(𝑡)

{ 𝑑𝐼(𝑡) 𝛽𝑆(𝑡)𝐼(𝑡)

(1)

𝑑𝑡

= 𝑆(𝑡)+𝐼(𝑡) − (𝑐 + 𝑑)𝐼(𝑡)

where 𝑆 and 𝐼 represent the number of susceptible and infected population at time 𝑡

(in days) respectively. The susceptible population is increased by recruitment of

individuals 𝑎 and recovered individuals with rate 𝑑, whereas this population is

decreased by natural death with rate 𝑏 and new infected individuals with

transmission rate 𝛽. We assumed that the recovered individuals gain no immunity

and can be re-infected. The infected population is decreased by death caused by the

disease with rate 𝑐 (𝑐 > 𝑏) and recovered individuals with rate 𝑑, whereas this

population is increased by new infected individuals with transmission rate 𝛽.

The model (1) has two equilibrium points, they are disease free equilibrium

𝑎

point (𝑆1 ∗ , 𝐼1 ∗ ) = ( , 0) that stable iff ℜ0 < 1 and endemic equilibrium point

𝑏

𝑎 𝑎(ℜ0 −1)

(𝑆2 ∗ , 𝐼2 ∗ ) = ( , ) that stable iff ℜ0 > 1, where the basic

𝑏+𝑐(ℜ0 −1) 𝑏+𝑐(ℜ0 −1)

𝛽

reproductive number ℜ0 is and it satisfies the condition 𝑐1 < 𝑐 < 𝑐2 , 𝑐1,2 =

𝑐+𝑑

1 1

(𝑏 + 𝛽 − 𝑑) ± √𝛽 2 + (2(𝑏 − 𝑑))𝛽 + (𝑏 + 𝑑)2 .

2 2

Because of the uncertainty factor on the number of SARS infected

individuals each day, the more precise mathematical model to describe the

dynamics of the population on the spread of infectious diseases is using a

stochastic model. In this section, we derive the stochastic version from the

deterministic SI model in a single area. To solve the equation numerically, we use

Euler-Maruyama method in [4].

We assume the total population in a single area is constant, 𝑆(𝑡) + 𝐼(𝑡) = 𝑛,

𝛽

for any 𝑡 and set 𝜆 = 𝑛. For describe the dynamics of infected population, the

𝑑𝐼(𝑡)

differential equation 𝑑𝑡

in the deterministic model (1) is modified to the

following stochastic differential equation:

𝐼(0) = 𝐼0 , 0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 𝑇

where 𝜇 and 𝜆 are a real constants and 𝑊(𝑡) is a random variable following a

Brownian motion. The first term in the right hand side of equation (2) is the

deterministic part of the model, while the second term is the stochastic part.

14

First, we construct a Brownian motion where 𝑊(𝑡) is sampled at discrete

𝑇

time-steps 𝑡. Set 𝛿𝑡 = with 𝑁 ∈ ℤ+ , then we have 𝑑𝑊𝑗 = 𝑊𝑗 – 𝑊𝑗−1 , 𝑗 =

𝑁

1,2, … , 𝑁 where 𝑑𝑊𝑗 ~√𝛿𝑡 𝑁(0,1).

We apply Euler-Maruyama method in equation (2) in interval [0, 𝑇] with

𝑇

discrete time-steps. Define the increment Δ𝑡 = 𝐿

with 𝐿 ∈ ℤ+ and set 𝜏𝑗 = 𝑗Δ𝑡, we

have

𝐼𝑗 = 𝐼𝑗−1 + (𝜆(𝑛 − 𝐼𝑗−1 )– (𝑐 + 𝑑))𝐼𝑗−1 Δ𝑡 + 𝜇𝑔(𝐼𝑗−1 )(𝑊(𝜏𝑗 ) – 𝑊(𝜏𝑗−1 )),

𝑗 = 1,2, … , 𝐿 (3)

where 𝐼𝑗 is the numerical approximation to 𝐼(𝜏𝑗 ). If 𝜇 = 0, equation (3) is the Euler

approximation to the deterministic model given by equation (1).

Next, increment Δ𝑡 is calculated from 𝑅 × δ𝑡 with 𝑅 ∈ ℤ. Those establish the

set of points {𝑡𝑗 }, where the Brownian path contains {𝜏𝑗 }. Moreover, increment

𝑊(𝜏𝑗 ) – 𝑊(𝜏𝑗−1 ) is calculated from Euler-Maruyama method,

𝑗𝑅

= ∑ 𝑑𝑊𝑘

𝑘=𝑗𝑅−𝑅+1

To calculate the average error of the simulation, we use the following formula:

2

√∑𝑘𝑖=1(𝐼̂𝑖 − 𝐼𝑖 )

𝐸=

𝑘

where 𝐼𝑖 is the cumulative number of infected individuals from the real data at time

𝑖, 𝐼̂𝑖 is the cumulative number of infected individuals from model at time 𝑖, and 𝑘 is

time interval.

In this section, we present our numerical simulation for stochastic SI model in

a single area. We compare the deterministic and stochastic solutions with the real

data of SARS infected individuals that occurred in Singapore and Hong Kong in

2003. The data taken from WHO [5] during 96 days, from March 17, 2003 to July

11, 2003.

Model 1: 𝒈(𝑰) = 𝑰

In this numerical simulation, we apply 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼. Parameter values for

Singapore are 𝑐 = 0.05, 𝑑 = 0.01, and 𝑛 = 206, while we use parameter values

𝑐 = 0.02, 𝑑 = 0.1, dan 𝑛 = 1755 for Hong Kong. If 𝜇 = 0, the stochastic model

in equation (2) will be the deterministic model because there is no stochastic part in

this equation. Furthermore, we will look for the value of 𝜆 so that the average error

with μ = 0 is smallest.

15

Number of infected population

t (days) t (days)

infected population in Singapore infected population in Hong Kong with

with 𝜇 = 0 and the variation of 𝜆 𝜇 = 0 and the variation of 𝜆

In Table 1, we see that the smallest average error in Singapore and Hong

Kong occurred when 𝜆 = 0.068 and 𝜆 = 0.0085 respectively.

TABLE 1. The average error for SARS infected data in Singapore (SG) and Hong

Kong (HK) with 𝜇 = 0 and the variation of 𝜆

0.05 2.012947 0.0080 6.574687

0.068 0.738320 0.0085 5.402897

0.0728 0.857625 0.0091 6.483367

Singapore and Hong Kong with 𝜆 that give the smallest average error and the

variation of 𝜇. The number of path is 100.

Number of infected population

t (days) t (days)

infected population in Singapore with infected population in Hong Kong with

𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼, 𝜆 = 0.068 and the 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼, 𝜆 = 0.0085 and the variation

variation of 𝜇 of 𝜇

16

In Table 2, we see that the average error in Singapore and Hong Kong for

stochastic model is slightly larger than deterministic model. The results in Table 2

to Table 9 are example of samples, because if the simulation is repeated with the

same parameter values, we will obtain different results with different average

errors, but the results does not differ much.

TABLE 2. The average error for SARS infected data in Singapore (SG) and Hong

Kong (HK) with 𝜇 ≠ 0 and 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼

0.1 100 0.766682 5.663882

0.5 100 1.519922 9.213685

0.9 100 1.758386 18.616213

In paper Ang [1], 𝜆 = 0.05. Next simulation will compare the number of infected

population for SARS outbreak in Singapore from model Octora et al. [6] (we call

Model A) and model Ang [1] (we call Model B) with 𝜇 = 0.25 and the number of

path is 500.

Number of infected population

t (days) t (days)

infected population in Singapore for infected population in Singapore for

Model A with 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼, 𝜆 = Model B with 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼, 𝜆 = 0.068 and

0.068 and 𝜆 = 0.05 𝜆 = 0.05

in Singapore for Model A and Model B with the smallest average error occured

when 𝜆 = 0.068.

17

TABLE 3. The average error for SARS infected data in Singapore for Model A

and Model B with 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼

𝜆 𝜇 Number of path 𝐸𝐴 𝐸𝐵

0.068 0.25 500 0.899946 0.824351

0.05 0.25 500 2.464749 2.122516

population in Hong Kong for Model A and Model B with 𝜇 = 0.25 and the

number of path is 500.

Table 4 shows the simulation results of number of SARS infected population

in Hong Kong for Model A and Model B with the smallest average error occurred

when 𝜆 = 0.0085.

TABLE 4. The average error for SARS infected data in Hong Kong for Model A

and Model B with 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼

𝜆 𝜇 Number of path 𝐸𝐴 𝐸𝐵

0.0085 0.25 500 8.602190 8.142499

0.05 0.25 500 52.301216 52.725848

Number of infected population

t (days) t (days)

infected population in Hong Kong for infected population in Hong Kong for

Model A and 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼 with 𝜆 = Model B and 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼 with 𝜆 =

0.0085 and 𝜆 = 0.05 0.0085 and 𝜆 = 0.05

Model 2: 𝒈(𝑰) = √𝑰

In previous subsection, we show the numerical simulations with 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼. In

this subsection, we apply 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼. We use same parameters with previous

subsection. For 𝜇 = 0, the results have been shown in Figure 1 and 2, because

model (2) will be deterministic model.

18

Now we want to find the smallest average error for SARS infected

population in Singapore and Hong Kong with 𝜆 = 0.068 and 𝜆 = 0.0085

respectively. In the following figure, we describe the number of SARS infected

population in Singapore and Hong Kong with varying 𝜇 and the number of path is

100.Number of infected population

t (days) t (days)

infected population in Singapore infected population in Hong Kong

with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 , 𝜆 = 0.068, and with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 , 𝜆 = 0.0085, and

the variation of 𝜇 the variation of 𝜇

𝜇 = 0.1 and the smallest average error in Hong Kong occurred at 𝜇 = 0.5. The

average error for stochastic model with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 for both Singapore and Hong

Kong are slightly smaller than its deterministic model.

TABLE 5. The average error for SARS infected data in Singapore (SG) and Hong

Kong (HK) with 𝜇 ≠ 0 and 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼

0.1 100 0.735629 5.404616

0.5 100 0.755446 5.392932

0.9 100 0.766904 5.397073

In next simulation, we will compare the number of infected population for SARS

outbreak in Singapore between Model A and Model B with 𝜇 = 0,25 and the

number of path is 500.

19

Number of infected population

t (days) t (days)

FIGURE 11. The number of SARS FIGURE 12. The number of SARS

infected population in Singapore for infected population in Singapore for

Model A with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 , 𝜆 = Model B with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 , 𝜆 =

0.068, and 𝜆 = 0.05 0.068, and 𝜆 = 0.05

population in Singapore for Model A and Model B, with the smallest average error

occured when 𝜆 = 0.068.

TABLE 6. The average error for SARS infected data in Singapore for Model A

and Model B with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼

𝜆 𝜇 Number of path 𝐸𝐴 𝐸𝐵

0.068 0.25 500 0.741732 0.753567

0.05 0.25 500 1.956201 1.939687

Figure 13 and 14 show the simulation results of the number of SARS infected

population in Hong Kong for Model A and Model B with 𝜇 = 0.25 and the

number of path is 500.

Number of infected population

t (days) t (days)

FIGURE 13. The number of SARS FIGURE 14. The number of SARS

infected population in Hong Kong for infected population in Hong Kong for

Model A with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 , 𝜆 = Model B with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 , 𝜆 =

0.0085, and 𝜆 = 0.05 0.0085, and 𝜆 = 0.05

20

Table 7 shows the simulation result of the number of SARS infected

population in Hong Kong for Model A and Model B with the smallest average

error occurred when 𝜆 = 0,0085.

TABLE 7. The average error for SARS infected data in Hong Kong for Model A

and Model B with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼

𝜆 𝜇 Number of paths 𝐸𝐴 𝐸𝐵

In the following simulations, we will vary the number of path in the value of 𝜇 that

implies the smallest average error.

Number of infected population

t (days) t (days)

FIGURE 15. The number of SARS FIGURE 16. The number of SARS

infected population in Singapore with infected population in Hong Kong with

𝜇 = 0.1 and varying number of path 𝜇 = 0.5 and varying number of path

Table 8 shows the average error for SARS data in Singapore and Hong Kong

when we vary the number of path. For SARS data in Singapore, the more number

of path the bigger average of error. For SARS data in Hong Kong, the smallest

average error occured when the number of path is 100.

TABLE 8. The average error for SARS infected data in Singapore and Hong Kong

for Model A with 𝜇 that implies the smallest average error and 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼

𝐸𝑆𝐺 0.725367 0.736501 0.737072 0.742474

𝐸𝐻𝐾 5.587203 5.348280 5.428575 5.420294

21

Figure 17 and 18 show the simulation results between deterministic model and

stochastic model for both 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼 and 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 with real data.

Number of infected population

t (days) t (days)

FIGURE 17. The number of SARS FIGURE 18. The number of SARS

infected population in Singapore for infected population in Hong Kong for

deterministic model and stochastic deterministic model and stochastic

model model

Table 9 shows that for Model 1 (𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼), the solution of deterministic

model is better than the solution of its stochastic model. But for Model 2 (𝑔(𝐼) =

√𝐼), the solution for stochastic model is better than the solution of its deterministic

model, for SARS data in Singapore occured when 𝜇 = 0.1 and for SARS data in

Hong Kong occured when 𝜇 = 0.5.

For SARS data in Singapore and Hong Kong, either Model A or Model B,

the model with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 estimates the real data better than the model with 𝑔(𝐼) =

𝐼. It means that the selection of 𝑔(𝐼) in the stochastic model is essential to get the

accurate result (the solution with smaller average error).

TABLE 9. The average error for SARS infected data in Singapore (SG) and Hong

Kong (HK) in Model A with 100 paths.

𝜇 0 0.1 0.5

3. Concluding Remarks

Mathematical modeling in epidemics mostly use deterministic models that

involve a system of differential equations. In this paper, we present a stochastic SI

model in a single area to compare its solution with the solution of deterministic SI

22

model and the real data. The numerical simulations using Euler-Maruyama method

show that the solution of stochastic SI model in a single area is good enough when

compared with deterministic solution and the real data of SARS infected from

WHO in Singapore and Hong Kong in 2003. For stochastic model, the model with

𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 has smaller average error than the model with the 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼. It means

the model with 𝑔(𝐼) = √𝐼 is better than the model with 𝑔(𝐼) = 𝐼. The proper

selection of the parameters give accuracy solution of model to the real data. For

further research, we can find another function of 𝑔 and some parameters that give

better result with smaller average error. We also can choose another method

besides the Euler-Maruyama method for finding the solution numerically.

Acknowledgment.

The author would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their

valuable comments and suggestions.

References

[1] K.C. Ang , A simple stochastic model for an epidemic-numerical

experiments with MATLAB, The Electronic Journal of Mathematics

and Technology; 1(2): 117-128, (2007)

[2] C. Castillo-Chavez and Z. Feng, Mathematical models for the disease

dynamics of tuberculosis, Biometrics Unit, Cornell University, New

York, (1996)

[3] Z. Feng and J. X. Velasco-Hernandez , Competitive exclusion in a

vector-host model for the dengue fever, Journal of Mathematical

Biology, 35: 523-544, (1997)

[4] Higham, D. J., An algorithmic introduction to numerical simulation of

stochastic differential equations, SIAM Review, 43(3): 525-546, (2001)

[5] Laboratory Biosafety Manual , Global Alert and Response (GAR),

www.who.int/csr/sars/country/en. [5 November 2014], (2004)

[6] E. Octora, B. Yong, and L. Owen, Analisis model S-I untuk satu dan

dua wilayah, Prosiding Seminar Nasional Matematika UNPAR, 9:

100-110, (2014)

[7] B. Yong, Model penyebaran HIV dalam sistem penjara, Jurnal

Matematika, Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, dan Pengajarannya, 36(1): 31-

47 , (2007)

23

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Applied Math

Wing UAV’S Linearized Equation of Motion

Compared to BPPT-04C Sriti Flight Test Data

Jemie Muliadi1,a)

1

BPPT, The Agency for The Assesment and The Application of Thecnology

a)

Jemie.muliadi@bppt.go.id

Abstract. Aircraft movements were subjected to the Newtonian equations of mechanics and to

the Euler’s moment equations. There are highly nonlinear and also consuming high computational

load in its complete form. For some practical reason, the methods of linearization were developed

to reduce the complexity of the computation needed to produce dynamic solution of the aircraft

model. The linearizing method was quite accurate in the small angle in equilibrium flight. This is

due to the multiplied terms—i.e. the nonlinear terms—that vanished after the multiplication of

small values thus the linear terms dominantly affect the solution of the equation of motion. So far,

the method works well in conventional aircraft consist of wings, fuselage (body), vertical tail and

horizontal tail. Recently, the Agency of The Assessment and The Application of Technology

(BPPT, Indonesia) has developed the unconventional “Flying Wing” configuration UAV. The

configuration was unconventional due to the omission of both tails in order to reduce the drag

force. Therefore, an assessment needs to be performed to investigate the suitability of

linearization method for Flying Wing UAV compared to its exact solution. The result of the

simulation shows that the omission of tail doesn’t affect much to the accuracy of the linearized

model compared to its exact solution. Which conclude that, although Flying Wing were

unconventional configuration, but it was suitable to be modelled using linearized equation of

motion.

Keywords and Phrases: Linearized Equation of Motion, Flying Wing, BPPT UAV.

1. Introduction

BPPT-04C "Sriti" The Flying Wing UAV

The Indonesian Agency for The Assessment and The Application of

Technology (BPPT) has conducting Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) research and

results in several types of prototypes. These UAVs serving each specific mission

from military purposes such as supporting border patrol, to agricultural purposes

such as providing low altitude hyper spectral [1]. The configuration varies from

conventional type entitled BPPT-01A “Wulung” which using rectangular wing and

ordinary tail, to the BPPT-01B “Gagak” and BPPT-02A “Pelatuk” which using

tapered-rectangular wing with their unconventional tail (i.e. the V tail and inverted-

V tail) and the BPPT-03A “Laron” which eliminates the wings and using rotor

24

instead [2]. The variety of design then continued to the tailless form of UAV,

entitled BPPT-04A “Sriti” which is a flying wing type Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

(UAV). The UAV only consist of fuselage and wings, without the tail planes,

horizontal tail plane nor vertical tail plane. Conventionally, an aircraft would be

recognized not only from its wing and fuselage, but also horizontal and vertical tail

which designed for it flight stability in its operation. However, the overall

configuration and the omission of tail of the BPPT-04C “Sriti” were designed for

its mobility aspect especially to be carried using backpack [3].

The Flight Mechanics, a branch of Flight Physics, has evolved into hundreds

of methods to analyze the performance, stability, control and dynamics of aircraft

in its conventional configuration. Restricted by the safety issue of the passenger

transportation, it is understandable that the developed of new aircraft were bounded

to the conventional configuration. It is also understandable that most of the aircraft

designer were clearly avoiding the exploration of unconventional aircraft

configuration.

In the era of Unmanned Aerial Systems technologies, the aircraft

configuration design has experienced a paradigm shifting. Instead being trapped

with the conventional configuration, these UAV designers has showed rapid

breakthrough in developing new configuration. The Predator, a combat UAV, have

inverted-V tail which diffuse the definition of “horizontal” and “vertical” tail plane.

Like the Predator, the Medium Altitude Long Endurance UAV mostly adopt the V

tail configuration, which placing the two tail planes like butterfly wings. In the

micro scale, now the multi-rotor concept result so many new UAV, like tricopter

(with 3 propellers), quadcopters (with 4 propellers), hexacopters (with 6 propellers)

and many others.

Due to the Unmanned Concept, the UAV were designed and built up to fulfill

its mission or the features that it offers the most. Trade-off in advantage and

disadvantages becomes main consideration in choosing the most optimum

configuration of UAV. To answer the needs of mobile UAV, which portable

enough to be break-down for a backpack carrier, the tailless UAV becomes a

suitable idea. This unconventional configuration also known as “the flying wing

configuration” omits the existence of conventional tail. Thus, the function of the

“omitted tail” will be compensated by designing special contour of the wing.

The conventional Flight Mechanics analyze the aircraft flight with the tail

parameters as the most important factor for its stability and maneuverability.

Although the complete aircraft’s Equation of Motion was nonlinear, it was

linearized to simplify the analysis. It is known that for conventional aircraft, the

25

conventional Flight Mechanics will perform accurate analysis. But what about the

analysis of unconventional aircraft flight? Is the linearizing method still performed

the same accuracy? Intuitively, we can deduce a hypothesis that the omission of the

tail will reduce the accuracy of the linearization method. But is the accuracy

decrement is truly occurred when the linearization method applied to the flying

wing? If accuracy decreases, how far the error arises?

Since the linearized method were known widely due its simplicity and low

computation cost, the method should undergo an analysis to measure its accuracy

when applied to Flying Wing aircraft. This work will simulate the approximation

of linearized Equation of Motion solution by using the Flight Test Data of BPPT’s

Flying Wing “Sriti”. The approximated result than compared with the true flight

data measurement to have the error analyzed.

2. Main Results

2.1 The Linearized Aircraft Equation of Motion

2.1.1. The Complete Equation for Rotation Mode

McRuer et al. [10] assuming the aircraft to be rigid, and the earth were fixed

in the space, to apply the Newton’s laws of mechanics and Euler Moment Equation

in deriving the Equation of Motion. Consider that the aircraft undergo a linear

momentum vector, p, and an angular momentum, H, with respect to Inertial

Coordinate Reference System. By Newton’s second law, the time rate of change of

linear momentum will be equals the sum of all externally applied forces.

dp

F

dt (1)

Analogous to linear case, in rotational movement the equality were also holds that the

rate of change of the angular momentum is the sum of all applied torques, M,

dH

M

dt (2)

These vector differential equations will be the starting point to describe the body

motions of the aircraft.

FIGURE 2. Definition of Aircraft Body Axis xyz, Velocity Vector UVW, Angular Rate Vector PQR,

Forces XYZ and Moments LMN (Source:[6])

26

To simplify the notation, from now on, the differential with respect of time will be

represented by the dot mark above the variable. In mathematical expression:

d

x x

dt (3)

To analyze the aircraft movement in each Body Axis, the equation expanded

into completed form of Aircraft Equation of Motion as (Allerton [6], McRuer et al.

[10]):

L I x P QR( I z I y ) I yz (Q2 R 2 ) I xz ( R PQ) I xy (Q PR)

M I y Q PR( I x I z ) I xz ( P 2 R 2 ) I yz ( R PQ) I xy ( P QR)

N I z R PQ( I y I x ) I xy ( P 2 Q 2 ) I xz ( P QR) I yz (Q PR)

(4)

The Aircraft Equation of Motion related the external torsion (control moment, L, M,

N in Body Axis x, y, z respectively) with the angular velocity P, Q, R and its rate

P, Q, R, . Also together with their coefficients Ix, Iy, Iz, which are the moment of

inertia in Body Axis, and the product of inertia Ixy, Iyz, Ixz, in their respective axis.

These angular velocity parameter P, Q, and R will cause the aircraft to rotate

concentric to X axis, which called “rolling”; then rotate in Y axis which named

“pitching” and rotate also in Z axis, which entitled as “yawing”. Illustration of

these rotations were displayed in Figure 3. From common notation of rolling, φ,

pitching, θ, and yawing, ψ, then the kinematics relation between the PQR and the

, , , will expressed:

1 sin tan cos tan P

0 cos sin Q

0 sin sec cos sec R

(5)

27

2.1.2. Linearization of Equation

Most of the aircraft mission is planned to fly in straight and level manner. In

that steady state flight, the nonlinear equation can be linearized around its trimmed

condition. So, if the aircraft undergo good design process and constructed into

statically stable configuration, then any small deviation from its steady flight

(trimmed) condition will produce adverse force and moment to recover its attitude

for a stable flight.

assumed that in the steady state condition the aircraft fly in P0 and Q0 while

experiencing slight disturbance δP and δQ. Since steady flight means P0 , Q0 and

R0 are zeros and multiplication between δP and δQ were so small that it can safely

neglected, then,

PQ P0 P Q0 Q P0 Q0 P0 Q Q0 P P Q 0

(6)

Using the same approximation, resulting:

PQ QR PR 0 (7)

Linearizing squared terms. For linearizing P2, the same assumption hold,

that in the steady state condition the aircraft fly in P0 while experiencing slight

disturbance δP. Since steady flight means P0, Q0 and R0 are zeros and

multiplication between δP and δP were so small that it can safely neglected, then,

2 2

P2 P0 P P02 2P0 P P 0

(8)

Using the same approximation, the results showed up:

P2 Q2 P2 0 (9)

assumption also hold, and the approximation becomes,

sin sin 0 sin 0 cos cos 0 sin 0 1 1 0

tan 0 tan

tan tan 0

0

1 tan 0 tan 1 0

1 1

sec

cos 0 1 0

(10)

28

The results:

sin ; cos 1 ; tan ; sec 1 (11)

The substitution of Eq. (7) and (9), into Eq. (4) will produce the Linearized

Rotational Equation of Motion as follows:

L I x P I xz R

M I yQ

N I z R I xz P (12)

Another substitution of Eq. (11) to Eq. (5) will result the Linearize Kinematics

Equation as follows (after omitting the δ notation):

P

Q

R (13)

To compare the Linearized Equation performance with respect to the actual

measured values, these sequence then held as simulation steps.

1. Begin to compute control moment L, M, N, from flight data to be fed to

Linearized Equation.

a. Compute L, M, N, using Eq. (4).

b. Input: Flight Data from [11].

2. Apply the computed L, M, N, to the Linearized Equation and extract

P, Q, R, from it.

a. Compute

P, Q, R,

using Eq. (12) (using the 5 points of

numerical differentiation [12]),

b. Input: L, M, N from Step 1.

P, Q, R, to obtain P, Q, R, then

transform it into

, , .

, , to obtain φ, θ, ψ, then

compare it with φ, θ, ψ, from flight data.

29

2.3. Analysis of the Comparison

2.3.1. Analyzing the Accuracy of the Roll Approximation

The solid purple line in the Figure 4 FIGURE 4 were showing the plot of

absolute value of roll angle error from linearized solution compared to flight data

value. The errors of the roll angle approximation were below 25 degrees.

The increment of error after data number 260 and after, were occurred in the

turning maneuver of the Sriti. Thus in the cruise maneuver, i.e. the aircraft is in

equilibrium flight, the linearization method show adequate accuracy in modeling

the flight.

The solid green line in the Figure 5 FIGURE 5 were showing the plot of

absolute value of Pitch error from linearized solution compared to flight data value.

The errors of the approximate roll error were below 40 degrees.

The pure cruise segment which occurred between data number 160 to 210,

were related well with the small error i.e. below 3 degrees. Thus the comparison

30

result enhance the hypothesis that the linearization method modeled the cruise

segment in a good approximation.

While the larger values between data number 220 to 260 in the pitch error

were not occurred in the roll error. This phenomenon showed that the roll and pitch

maneuver were decoupled from each other. This decoupled response will give

proper base for further linearization which can separate the equation of motion to

the roll part and the pitch part.

The solid light brown line in the Figure 6 were showing the plot of absolute

value of Yaw error from linearized solution compared to flight data value. The

errors of the approximate roll error were below 25 degrees. The spike occurred

around the data number 280 due to instrumentation glitch in the data recording.

Instead of spikes that can be neglected in the analysis, the error in yaw

simulation showing good approximation for cruise flight and the yaw movement

were decoupled also from the pitch movement. This might direct the further

linearization into at least two part of equation that might be solved separately. First,

the pitch linearized equation of motion, and the second might be the roll-yaw

linearized equation of motion.

Although the error of each flight angle approximation were bounded to their

upper limit, but careful treatment must be considered when applying the

linearization method for longer than 1 minute of flight simulation. The reason for

this skeptic judgment is the error propagation that could deviates rapidly drift the

flight angle approximation afar from its true value. The small angle deviation in

each approximation doesn't guaranteed to cancel each other or reduce the previous

error which exhibit by the numerical integration process. Since the sign of the

present error could be similar or opposing the sign of previous error, then the

accumulative error might built up to be excessive or even lead to divergence results

in the simulation.

3. Concluding Remarks

The linearization method performed a good approximation when it was

applied in the cruise flight. In the cruise condition, the aircraft fly in equilibrium

31

state. Because pilot always perform correction in this state, than any deviation in

roll, pitch and yaw movement were bounded to be small. This small interaction of

flight angle were reducing the contribution of nonlinear terms in the Newton-Euler

equation. The reducing of non linear terms in this flight regime were adequately

bring accuracy to its linearized equation of motion.

From the comparison of the error and the interaction between flight angles,

we can conclude that the error of Linearization Method were independent to the

Flying Wing maneuver. The error characteristic in Roll-Yaw and Pitch-Yaw is

decoupled in the Flying Wing Configuration.

References

[1] S.D. Jenie, Design and Engineering UAV (in Indonesian), Keynote Speech

of the Proceeding of National Seminar of UAV Design and Engineering,

BPPT, Jakarta: Indonesia, (2007)

[2] J. Muliadi, The Development of BPPTs UAV Case Study: T-Tail, V-Tail,

Inverted V-Tail Configurations, Proceeding of Chinese National Seminar of

UAV, Beijing: P.R. China, (2008)

[3] F. Hasim and Madhapi, The BPPT UAV Aerodynamic Configuration

Development Program for Sriti Prototype to Extend its Flight Range and

Endurance (in Indonesian), The Final Report for PKPP Insentive Research

(Program Document No. 021.2.F1.133), Intern. Doc. LAGG-BPPT, Banten:

Indonesia, (2012)

[4] J.R. Brannan and W.E. Boyce, Differential Equations: An Introduction to

Modern Methods and Applications (2nd Ed.), John Wiley & Sons, Ltd,

(2011)

[5] D.J. Diston, Computational Modelling and Simulation of Aircraft and the

Environment, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, (2009)

[6] D. Allerton, Principles of Flight Simulation, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, (2009)

[7] AIAA, AIAA Aerospace Design Engineers Guide (5th Ed.), AIAA Inc,

(2003)

[8] Lennon, A., R/C Model Aircraft Design, Air AGE Media, (1996)

[9] M.V. Cook, Flight Dynamics Principles, Butterworth-Heinemann (Elsevier),

(2007)

[10] D. McRuer, I. Ashkenas, and D. Graham, Aircraft Dynamics and Automatic

Control, Princeton University Press, New Jersey, (1973)

[11] D.H. Budiarti, Djatmiko, and M. Dahsyat, Technical Report No.

012/FT/6.1/PUNA/XI/2013 BPPT-04C Sriti Experimental Flight No. 02 Test

Report, Test Subject: Parameter Identification, BPPT Internal Technical

Document, Jakarta: Indonesia, (2013)

[12] R. L. Burden and J. D. Faires, Numerical Analysis (9th ed.), Boston, MA

(Amerika Serikat): Brooks/Cole, (2011)

32

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Applied Math

Alleviation Program Using Analytic Hierarchy

Process in Parigi Moutong, Central Sulawesi

Province, Indonesia

Sutikno1,a), Soedarso2,b), Sukardi3,c), Syamsuddin HM4,d), Yusman

Alharis5,e), and Kartika Nur ‘Anisa’6,f)

1,5,6

Department of Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Jl. Arief Rahman

Hakim, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia

2

Departmnet of Social Humaniora

3,4

STMIK Adhi Guna Palu

a)

sutikno@statistika.its.ac.id

b)

darso@mku.its.ac.id

c)

sukardi_palu@yahoo.co.id

e)

yusmanalharis@gmail.com

f)

anisa.kartika99@gmail.com

Abstract. Parigi Moutong is one of four districts which the percentage of poor people is high,

more than 20%. Poverty alleviation programs, which have been undertaken, are still not optimal

in accelerating poverty reduction, because the decreasing average is relatively small, below 0.5%.

Therefore, it is needed to combine top-down and bottom-up in determining poverty program

Parigi Moutong. The community is involved in process of determining the program. Otherwise,

when deciding program the community should be assisted by experts who are familiar with the

existing problems. These models are expected to increase success in poverty reduction. A method

that can be used to assist in the decision-making process is AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process).

This research uses stakeholders as the expert respondent. The results show that there are several

priorities that must be developed as tourism development in Parigi Moutong. The preparing

fishermen’s economic improvement program is the main priority, the priority value is 0.530. The

availability of bins for environmental conservation (0.553), local cultural traditions as tourists

attracting (0.485) and community involvement in economic activities (0.461), should be taken

precedence in tourism development. The second priority is fish cultivation with priority value is

0.188 and the availability of fishpond as the development of fishing capture result (0.492). Post-

fishing management is the third priority (0.178) with packaging/management of fishing capture

result. Supporting facilities of fishing capture result on the sea (0.102) become the last priority

aspect and the empowerment of boat as one of fishing vessels has to be developed in this aspect

with priority value is 0.392.

Keywords and Phrases: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Fishermen Community, Parigi

Moutong, Poverty.

33

1. Introduction

Until 2014, the number of poor people in Central Sulawesi is decreased, i.e.

18.07% in 2010 to 13.93% in 2014, BPS Central Sulawesi province [2]. Among the

11 districts/ cities in Sulawesi, there are four districts with the percentage of poor

people is high, more than 20%, which are: Tojo Una-Una, Poso, Morowali and

Parigi Moutong, BPS Parigi Moutong [1]. Mostly poor people live in rural areas

and work in agriculture including fishing.

Poverty alleviation programs that undertaken are still not optimal in

accelerating poverty reduction because the decreasing average is relatively small,

below 0.5%. During 2011-2014 period, the number of poor people fluctuated and

tended to decrease from year to year, BPS Central Sulawesi province [2]. Poverty

alleviation programs in Central Sulawesi, including PKPS BBM (2003; 2005) and

PNPM Mandiri (2008; 2011) BPS Central Sulawesi province [2]. The programs are

largely top-down. PNPM Mandiri Program is more emphasis on the community

which is more active role to start election monitoring and evaluation program.

Programs which are purely bottom-up are still not optimal, although the rate of

failure is not as big as top-down. Program targets are the poor community in all

aspects, resulting in determination and monitoring programs are not all determined

by the program beneficiaries.

Therefore it is necessary to combine top-down and bottom-up in determining

the poverty program Parigi Moutong. In the process to determine program, the

community is involved. Otherwise, when deciding program the community should

be assisted by an expert who is familiar with the problems that exist at the site.

These models are expected to increase success in poverty reduction. This research

examines the needs of the fishing community in Parigi Moutong which are

appropriate, so it can be arranged poverty alleviation programs. The aspects that

are considered in this research are supporting facilities of fishing capture result on

the sea, post-fishing management, fish cultivation and tourism development. A

method, used to assist in the decision-making process, is AHP (Analytic Hierarchy

Process).

2. Main Results

2.1 Definition of Analytic Hierarchy Process

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a methodological approach which

implies structuring criteria of multiple options into a system hierarchy, includes

relative values of all criteria, comparing alternatives for each particular criterion

and defining the average importance of alternatives, Saaty [6]. AHP method offers

a meaningful and rational framework for structuring problems, presentation, and

qualification of elements that make a problem. This method has been widely used

to select the best alternative among many alternatives based on multiple criteria,

including some AHP application as it has been used by Plastic, and Lalic, B. [5]

used the method for Selecting and Evaluating Projects; Kholil [4] used it for the

selection of local commodities, as well as the Application of AHP methodology in

making proposal for a public work contract, Bertolini, Bragila and Carmignan, [7].

The weakness of AHP method is often inconsistent in their assessments

between one criterion to the other criteria, Saaty [6]. In addition, the measurement

34

cannot be given absolutely to the criteria compared, if there is a reduction/

increasing in one criterion, thereby granting the rank is an irrelevance. The

principle of AHP method is to solve a complex problem into its parts are structured

into (a) what is the purpose, (b) what is the criteria and (c) whoever/ whatever that

meet these criteria. The most important thing in doing the analysis by AHP Saaty

[6], is to set parts or variables into a hierarchy, gives a numerical value to each

variable and synthesized to select variables that have the highest priority. There are

4 steps being taken are:

(1) Decomposition, solving a complex problem into a simpler elements, and then

create a hierarchy of goal, criteria, and alternatives.

(2) Comparative Judgement, assessing the relative importance of the two pairs of

elements. The pairwise comparison must be in the form of quantitative

assessment in terms of numbers as in Table 1.

Importance Definition

1 equally importance

3 slightly more importance

5 materially more importance

7 significantly more importance

9 absolute importance

2,4,6,8 compromise values

nxn judgment matrix pairs:

A = (aij), (i, j = 1,2,3,…, n), this is a reciprocal matrix with all of diagonal values is

1, with the following conditions:

a. If aij = α, then aji = 1 / α, for α ≠ 0

b. For aij where i = j, then aij = 1, hence A (aij) is a matrix as follows:

1 a12 ... a1n

1/ a12 a22 ... a2 n

A

... ... ... ...

1/ a1n 1/ a2 n ... 1

a. Which element is more important

b. How many times the importance one element over another

If there are w1, w2, ... wn are assessed with pairwise comparison, the value

between w1 and w2 is written wi/wj= a(ij); where i,j = 1,2,3,…,n thus the matrix A

(aij) is written into:

35

w1 / w1 w1 / w2 ... w1 / wn

w2 / w1 w2 / w2 ... w2 / wn

A

... ... ... ...

wn / w1 wn / w2 ... wn / wn

the result is:

AW = n W (1)

If the matrix A is known, then the value of W can be obtained by the

following equation:

A-[nI W] = 0 (2)

Equation (2) will produce a non-zero solution if n is an eigenvalue of A

and W is the eigenvector. After all eigenvalue of matrix A is obtained as α1, α2,

α2,…, αn and based on the matrix A to a(ii)= 1, then it will apply:

n

i n (3)

i 1

eigenvalues as follow:

AW = αmaksW (4)

A-αmaksI W = 0 (5)

to get a zero value, then:

A-αmaksI = 0 (6)

From equation (6), it will be obtained the value of αmaks. By entering a

value in the equation (5), we will get the value of wi (i = 1,2,3, ...., n) which is the

eigenvector corresponding to the maximum eigenvalue.

(3) Synthesis of Priority is the selection of priority based on pairwise

comparisons.

(4) Logical consistency is to test consistency for each pairwise comparison matrix.

Consistency assessment of pairwise comparison matrices based on two

aspects

a. By looking at multiplicative preferences, for example when A is twice heavier

than B and B is two times heavier than C, then A should be 4 times heavier

than C.

b. By viewing transitive preferences, for example if A is less than B and B is less

than C, then A must be smaller than C.

2.2 Methodology

There are two stages that used of this research: first is to set the stage

hierarchy (goal, criteria, and alternatives), and the second is data collection and

data analysis. Determination of hierarchy and data collection is done by expert

36

interview, while data analysis uses software Expert Choice 2000. Steps and method

determination of priority strategies by using AHP are as shown follow.

Literature Review

Discussion with experts to determine criteria and alternatives

Pairwise comparison (experts based)

Synthesis of priority

Test of consistency

Determination of priority strategy

2.3.1 Aspect Priorities

Based on the expert discussion, there are 4 criteria as the basis for the

selection of strategies: C1(supporting facilities of fishing capture result on the sea),

C2(post-fishing management), C3(fish cultivation) and C4(tourism development).

This analysis uses data from two experts in tourism and maritime Parigi Moutong.

Each expert fills AHP comparison matrix questionnaire that refers to section 2.1.

The results from two experts are merged into one by geometric mean rule with

n=2. The merger results will get full comparison matrix as Table 2.

Criteria C1 C2 C3 C4

C1 1 1/2.449 1/1.414 1/4.242

C2 1 1/2 1/2.645

C3 1 1/4.582

C4 1

Synthesis result of priority for level 2 (criteria) refer to level 1 (goal) is shown in

Figure 1.

37

Based on Figure 1, the aspect of tourism development in Parigi Moutong

becomes the first priority that must be developed to define poverty alleviation

programs (0.530). Supporting facilities of fishing capture result on the sea become

the last priority (0.102) in the determination of poverty alleviation program. It

means that tourism aspects considered is able to increase the community’s

economy, which tourism in Parigi Moutong has potential but it still needs

management to be done properly so that policy making and regulatory efforts to

raise national and international tourism are able to bring prosperity to the

surrounding community.

By the same way, synthesis of priority for alternatives is shown in Figure 2.

adequate fishing boats is the first priority (0.392) and the renewal of technology

becomes the last priority (0.153) which is considered able to help the community in

fishing facilities on the sea. While in post-fishing management, the packaging

becomes the first priority (0.341) and giving fund becomes the last priority (0.044)

which is considered able to help the community to manage the result of sea

capture. In fish cultivation aspect, the availability of fishpond is the first priority

(0.492) and the increasing of human resources becomes the last priority (0.089)

which is considered able to help people to increase economy in Parigi Moutong by

doing cultivation.

In the economic sector, community involvement in the activities of Small

and Medium Enterprises is the first priority (0.460) and infrastructure improvement

is the last priority (0.066) which is assessed able to increase community’s economy

in tourism aspect. In the socio-cultural sector, the cultural tradition of local area

becomes the first priority that must be developed (0.484), while the safety and

comfortable become the last priority (0.049). In the environmental sector, garbage

dump is the first priority that must be considered in environmental management

38

(0.553), while public environmental awareness becomes the last priority (0.048) in

terms of tourism development of the environmental sector.

3. Concluding Remarks

The most appropriate strategy for poverty reduction in Parigi Moutong

fishing communities is to develop tourism in a sustainable manner, it is supported

by the high potential of tourism in Parigi Moutong. In the economic sector,

government supports for small and medium enterprises into the most appropriate

strategy is to improve the community’s economy independently. In the socio-

cultural sector, the preservation of local cultural traditions will be an attraction for

tourists to visit in Parigi Moutong. In the environmental sector, the making of

garbage dump becomes an important priority that must be done by the government

to support the development of sustainable tourism in Parigi Moutong.

supported this research in BOPTN DIKTI.

References

[1] Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Parigi Moutong, Kabupaten Parigi Moutong

Dalam Angka 2014, (2014)

Sulawesi Tengah Maret 2014, Berita Resmi Statistik. No.

38/07/72/Th.XVII., (2014)

making a proposal for apublic work contract , International Journal of

Project Management. Volume 24, Pages 422–430, (2006)

Aceh Regency, Ministry of Industry of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta,

(2010)

[5] I. Palsic and B. Lalic, Analytical hierarchy process As a tool for selecting

and evaluating projects, Int J. Simulation model. ISSN 1726 -4529; p 16-26.,

(2009)

hierarchy decision process, Decision sciences, Volume 18, No. 2, p : 27-45,

(1987)

[7] T. L. Saaty, Decision Making for Leaders, Analytic Hierarchy Process for

Decision Making in Complex Situations, Jakarta: PT. Pustaka Binaman

Pressindo., (1993)

39

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Applied Math

Means with Feature Selection

Bona Revano1,a), Zuherman Rustam2,b)

1,2

Department of Mathematics, Universitas Indonesia

a)

bona.revano@sci.ui.ac.id

zuhermanrustam@gmail.com

b)

Abstract. For many years, cancer classification has improved to detect cancer at early stage of

treatment. Cancer classification is used for the treatment of cancer has entered the challenge to

target specific therapy for each type of cancer pathogens in an effort to maximize efficiency and

minimize toxicity. This research present cancer classification with feature selection using

microarray data. The clustering method based on K-Means and classification using Fuzzy C-

Means. Feature selection is crucial for cancer classification, because for each cancer has small

numbers of gene are informative. In this paper, filter method is used. In the filter method, a

feature relevance score is calculated, and low-scoring features are removed. The class I (healthy)

and class II (cancerous) are already known. The feature are ranked according to the symmetric

divergence between positive and negative classes distribution after that using K-Means for

clustering. The experiment investigation that optimization based clustering with feature selection

increase the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity classification. The results show the difference

between all the dataset used and the dataset using feature selection.

Keywords: Cancer classification, feature selection, clustering, microarray data, feature score

1. Introduction

spread of abnormal cells. If the spread is not controlled, it can result in death. In

2012, there were 14.1 million new cancer cases in worldwide, the corresponding

estimates for total cancer deaths were 8.2 million. By 2030, the global burden is

expected to grow to 21.7 million new cancer cases and 13 million cancer deaths

simply due to the growth and aging of the population. However, the estimated

future cancer burden will probably be considerably larger due to the adoption of

lifestyles that are known to increase cancer risk, such as smoking, poor diet,

physical inactivity, and fewer pregnancies, in economically developing countries

[1].

the tumor, but this has serious limitations. Tumors with similar appearance can

follow significantly different clinical courses and show different responses to

therapy. In a few cases, such clinical heterogeneity has been explained by dividing

morphologically similar tumors into subtypes with distinct pathogeneses. So,

cancer classification has been difficult in part because it has historically relied on

40

specific biological insights, rather than systematic and unbiased approaches for

recognizing tumor subtypes [2]. Cancer classification can help to maximize

efficiency and minimize toxicity of cancer treatment with specify target.

A microarray contains thousands of DNA spots, covering almost every gene in a

genome. In experiments, the signal collected from each spot is used to estimate the

expression level of a gene. Each of genes is with specific purpose. This research

using microarray data for colon cancer are considered in this investigation

Feature Selection is selection method to reduce dataset because not all dataset

are informative. This selection is crucial because other dataset are not informative

can reduce the accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity. Feature selection using

clustering to reduce the data because the method wants to shuffling data to get true

informative dataset from each clustering. Clustering in this method based on K-

means clustering because K-mean clustering is the simplest

unsupervised learning algorithms that solve the well-known clustering problem. In

classification, we using classification using Fuzzy C-Means because this method is

most stable clustering method, because the central cluster and the results of

grouping does not change if new extreme data come in.

2. Main Results

2.1 Materials and Methods

As shown in Fig 1., Classification system was conducted using clustering to

partition the data so that it will look anywhere informative features on each

partition. In accordance with the discussion in the previous chapter, the clustering

method used is K-means clustering. Each clustering process is carried out as many

as 100 iterations per clustering process. Clustering process takes place 6 times with

a different number of clusters according to the partitions are used per clustering. In

the clustering process first used the cluster so that no data partitioning thus selected

41

20 features with the largest value of the feature score. In the process of subsequent

clustering of the process 2 to 6 are partitions. The second is used for clustering 2

cluster means data partitioned two parts. In this process the number of shots for

each partition features obtained from the calculation in equation (2).

For the clustering process 3 to 6 partitions decision is also based on the

equation (2). Total feature selected for each clustering process is the 20 features.

Because the process is performed six times, then the total is 120 features selected

features. However, there are features of 120 features were elected more than twice.

As a result, of the 120 will feature in the selection back to 25 features. The process

of taking 25 such features taken from the frequency of occurrence of each feature

on the clustering process. Thus it was selected 25 features the results of microarray

data is already done feature selection. The features of the 25 reconstituted

microarray new data, then each sample on the data classified using the Fuzzy C-

Means.

2.1.1 Microarray data

We using microarray data is a gene expression data set for colon cancer is

obtain in (http://genomics-pubs.princeton.edu/oncology/), this is publicly available.

The data consists of 7457 genes and each gene has 36 samples correspond to 18

healthy cases and in which 18 are cancerous [3].

2.1.2. Clustering Genes

K-Means Clustering is the simplest unsupervised learning algorithms that solve

the well-known clustering problem. K-means method is allocating data into

clusters based on a comparison with the distance between the centroid data. Data is

allocated to the cluster that has a centroid closest to the data. In general objective

function for K-Means Clustering is

𝑁 𝑐

𝑘=1 𝑖=1

where,

𝑁 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎

𝑐 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟

𝑎𝑖𝑘 = 𝑚𝑒𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑡𝑜 𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑖, 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑐ℎ 𝑖𝑠 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑡ℎ

1, 𝑑 = 𝑚𝑖𝑛{𝑑(𝑥𝑘 , 𝑣𝑖 )}

𝑎𝑖𝑘 = {

0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒

𝑉𝑖 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑖𝑑 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑖

𝑋𝑘 = [𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑁 ], 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑋

𝑋𝑘𝑖 = [𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑁 ], 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑋 𝑖𝑛 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑖

42

Algorithm 1. K-Means Clustering

Feature selection is crucial for cancer classification, as for each cancer type

only a small numbers of genes are informative, and the presence of other genes

reduces the classification accuracy [4]. The scoring examines the level of

contribution of each gene to cause discrimination between healthy (class I) and

cancerous (class II) tissues. In this study, because the distributions of class I and

class II is already known, the features are ranked according to the symmetric

divergence between the positive and negative class distributions as shown below

[5].

(𝑋 )

𝐹𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑖 = ( + )−1+ ( ) (2)

2 (𝜎 − )2 (𝜎 + )2 2 (𝜎 + )2 + (𝜎 − )2

𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 𝑖

where class I (+) and class II (-), 𝜎𝑖 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜇𝑖 is standard deviation and mean of

gene i.

After we know Fscore for each genes. The total number of genes best of all cluster

formed in to 𝑁𝑔 = 20. The best total genes selected from each cluster is

calculated by:

∑𝑚 𝑘

𝐹𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 (𝑋𝑖 )

𝑁𝑔𝑘 = 𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 ((𝑁𝑔 − 𝑞) ( 𝑚𝑖−1 )) + 1 (3)

∑𝑖−1 𝐹𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 (𝑋𝑖 ))

where,

𝑁𝑔𝑘 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑘

𝑚𝑘 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑘

𝑚 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑠

𝑞 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟

43

2.1.4. Classification

Fuzzy C-Means is development method from method of K-Means. Fuzzy C-

Means was proposed by Dunn (1973) and developed by Bezdek (1981). This

method is a method in Non-Hierarchical Clustering. Fuzzy C-Means is most stable

clustering method, because the central cluster and the results of grouping does not

change if new extreme data come in. In general objective function of Fuzzy C-

Means is

𝑐 𝑁

2 (𝑋

𝐽𝐹𝐶𝑀 (𝑉, 𝑈, 𝑋, 𝑐, 𝑤) = ∑ ∑(𝑢𝑙𝑘 )𝑤 𝑑𝑙𝑘 𝑘 , 𝑉𝑙 ) (4)

𝑙=1 𝑘=1

𝑐

𝑖=1

where,

𝑉&𝑈=

𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛, 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟

𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑥 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝 𝑚𝑒𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐹𝑢𝑧𝑧𝑦 𝐶

− 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠.

𝑋 = 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑥 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟.

𝑋𝑘 = [𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑁 ], 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑜𝑤 𝑜𝑓 𝑋

𝑐 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑋.

𝑤 = 𝑓𝑢𝑧𝑧𝑦 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑛𝑔.

2

𝑑𝑖𝑘 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑡𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑖𝑑, 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑦

(‖𝑥𝑘 − 𝑣𝑖 ‖2 = (𝑥𝑘 − 𝑣𝑖 )𝑇 (𝑥𝑘

− 𝑣𝑖 )) (6)

𝑉 = 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑥 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑖𝑑

Algorithm 2. Fuzzy C-Means

Step 1. Determine

a. 𝑋 with size 𝑛 × 𝑚, where 𝑛 is number of dataset training, 𝑚 is number of

parameter.

b. Number of cluster, 𝑐 ≥ 2.

c. 𝑤 > 1.

d. Max iteration N.

e. Iteration stop if 𝜀 = 𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟.

f. Determine centroid with mean for each cluster.

Iteration begin 𝑡 = 1,2, … , 𝑁

Step 2. Update degree of membership fuzzy for each data in each cluster (correct

membership matrix) 𝑢 = [𝑢𝑖𝑘 ], 𝑘 = 1,2, … , 𝑛

𝑐 1 −1

2 𝑤−1

𝑑𝑖𝑘

𝑢𝑖𝑘 = [∑ ( 2 ) ] (7)

𝑑𝑗𝑘

𝑗=1

2

where, 𝑑𝑖𝑘 = ‖𝑥𝑘 − 𝑣𝑖 ‖2 = (𝑥𝑘 − 𝑣𝑖 )𝑇 (𝑥𝑘 − 𝑣𝑖 )

44

Step 3. Calculated centroid 𝑉 for each cluster 𝑖.

∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑢𝑖𝑘 )𝑤 𝑋𝑘

𝑉𝑖 = (8)

∑𝑛𝑘=1(𝑢𝑖𝑘 )𝑤

Step 4. Determine iteration stop for centroid of now iteration (𝑡) and iteration

before (𝑡 − 1).

∆= ‖𝑉 𝑡 − 𝑉 𝑡−1 ‖ (9)

If ∆< 𝜀 then iteration stop.

In this stage the performance of the classifier is evaluated. The evaluation is

carried out in the forms of sensitivity, accuracy and specificity. There are 4

possible outcomes from the classifier. The first possibility is true positive (TP),

which refers to the case that a diseased sample is correctly diagnosed. The second

possibility is false positive (FP), in which a healthy sample is incorrectly identified

as a diseased case. The third possibility is true negative (TN), which indicates the

case where a healthy sample is correctly spotted. Final possibility is false negative

(FN), which refers to the case that diseased sample is incorrectly identified as

healthy [6]. The percentage value for the evaluation criteria (sensitivity, specificity

and accuracy) can be calculated using equation (10)-(12) [3].

2.1.5.1. Sensitivity

𝑛 𝑇𝑃

𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 = × 100 (10)

𝑛 𝑇𝑃 + 𝑛𝐹𝑃

2.1.5.2. Specificity

𝑛 𝑇𝑁

𝑆𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 = × 100 (11)

𝑛 𝑇𝑁 + 𝑛𝐹𝑁

2.1.5.3. Accuracy

𝑛 𝑇𝑃 + 𝑛 𝑇𝑁

𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 = × 100 (12)

𝑛 𝑇𝑃 + 𝑛 𝑇𝑁 + 𝑛𝐹𝑃 + 𝑛𝐹𝑁

2.2.1 Microarray data

TABLE 1. Data Example

45

𝑟𝑜𝑤 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑛 = 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑠 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑎 𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

𝑇 = 𝑇𝑢𝑚𝑜𝑟 (𝐶𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝐼𝐼)

𝑁 = 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 (𝐶𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝐼)

from 1 to 6, in each case. This means that in the first run the number of clusters is

set to one implying no clustering is used, hence the algorithm goes straight to the

gene selection step and selects the top 20 genes. In the second run, data is

partitioned in two clusters, while the clustering algorithm iterates 100 times to

minimize the cost function to achieve more accurate clusters.

After 100 iterations of K-Means Clustering, feature selection is carried out

according to the number of clusters and the population in each cluster. Therefore,

depending on the number of clusters different sets of genes are selected. Similar

procedure, as in run 2, carries on until the final run in which data is clustered into

six partitions. As a result of 20 genes selected in each run, a total of 120 genes are

finally selected from 6 runs, and are scored according to how many times they

were repeated in each case. Finally the 25 genes with the highest score are

extracted [3]. As shown.

TABLE 3. 25 genes selected with highest F score

46

2.2.3. Classification

After that make a new data from 25 genes selected and fed in to Fuzzy C-

Means and after that we do classification without feature selection. The result as

shown below.

TABLE 4. Classification with feature selection

selection, all the normal cells in precisely the Data Class 1 where no one is in the

Data Class 2, while for the tumor cells there are three cells into the Data Class 1 are

supposed to be in the Data Class 2. The calculation of the level of sensitivity (10),

specificity (11), and accuracy (12) contained in Table 6.

TABLE 5. Classification without feature selection

selection, there are 6 (six) normal cells that are in the Data Class 2 where they

should be in the Data Class 1, whereas for tumor cells there are 3 (three) cells into

the Data Class 1 are supposed to be in the Data Class 2. for the calculation of the

level of sensitivity (10), specificity (11), and accuracy (12) contained in Table 6.

We calculated accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Compare the result

classification using feature selection and without using feature selection. The result

shown below.

TABLE 6. Accuracy, Sensitivity and Specificity

47

CHART 1. Accuracy, Sensitivity, and Specificity

3. Concluding Remarks

A cancer classification approach using Fuzzy C-Means method with feature

selection with K-Means clustering is developed the accuracy of cancer

classification performance, compared to cases in which no feature selection is used.

To this end, the most informative genes (25 genes) were selected using feature

selection, then fed into the classifier (Fuzzy C-Means method). Finally sensitivity,

accuracy and specificity of identifying a cancerous sample data were calculated

and developed significant.

Acknowledgment. The author are grateful to the referees for their valuable

comments and suggestions. The authors also acknowledgment that this research is

the final project in Universitas Indonesia.

References

[1] American Cancer Society, (2015), Global Cancer Facts & Figures 3rd Edition

Atlanta: American Cancer Society; 2015.

[2] T.R. Golub, D.K. Slonim, P. Tamayo, C. Huard, M. Gaasenbeek, et al.,

Molecular classification of cancer: class discovery and class prediction by gene

expression monitoring, Science 286 (5439) (1999) 531–538.

[3] V. Elyasigomari, M.S. Mirjafari, H.R.C. Screen, M.H. Shaheed, Cancer

classification using a novel gene selection approach by meansof shuffling

based on data clustering with optimization, ScienceDirect (2015).

[4] D.B. Allison, X.Q. Cui, C.P. Page, M. Sabripour, Microarray data

analysis:from disarray to consolidation and consensus, Nat. Rev. Genet. 7 (1)

(2006)55–65.

[5] Y. Zhang, J.C. Rajapakse (Eds.), Machine Learning in Bioinformatics, John

Wiley& Sons, Inc., New Jersey, 2009.

[6] A. Rahideh, M.H. Shaheed, Cancer classification using clustering based

geneselection and artificial neural networks, in: International Conference on

Control, Instrumentation and Automation (ICCIA), Shiraz, 2011, pp. 1175–

1180.

48

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Graph and Combinatorics

Putranto Utomo1,a) and Ruud Pellikaan2,b)

1,2

Eindhoven University of Technology. Department of Mathematics

and Computer Science, Coding and Crypto. PO Box 513. NL-5600 MB.

a)

p.h.utomo@tue.nl

b)

g.r.pellikaan@tue.nl

Abstract. Sudokus are nowadays very popular puzzles and they are studied for their

mathematical structure. Binary Puzzles are also interesting puzzles with certain rules.

A solved Binary Puzzle is an n by n binary array satisfying: (1) there are no three

consecutive ones and also no three consecutive zeros in each row and each column,

(2) the number of ones and zeros must be equal in each row and in each column, and

(3) every two rows and every two columns must be distinct. Binary Puzzles can be

seen as constrained arrays and can be used for modulation purposes, 2D recording and

barcodes and is studied in statistical mechanics. In our previous paper, we outlined

some problems related to Binary Puzzles such as the rate of these codes, the erasure

decoding probability, the decoding algorithms and their complexity. In this paper, we

focus on the first problem, that is finding the rate of a code based on the Binary

Puzzle.

Keywords and Phrases: Binary Puzzle, rate of a code, constrained arrays

1. Introduction

Binary Puzzle is an interesting puzzle with certain rules. We look at the

mathematical theory behind it. The solved Binary Puzzle is an n × n binary array

that satisfies:

(1) no three consecutive ones and also no three consecutive zeros in each row and

each column,

(2) the array is balanced, that is the number of ones and zeros must be equal in

each row and in each column,

(3) every two rows and every two columns must be distinct.

Figure 1 is an example of a Binary Puzzle. There is only one solution

satisfying all three conditions. But there are three solutions satisfying (1) and (2).

The solution satisfying all conditions is given in Figure 2.

In our previous paper [15], we outlined some problems related to Binary

Puzzles such as the rate of these code, the erasure decoding probability, the

decoding algorithms and their complexity. In this paper, we focus on the first

problem.

The computation of the number of n × n Binary Puzzles is a very difficult

problem, and so far we were only able to obtain the values for small n, by brute

force.

49

FIGURE 1. Unsolved FIGURE 2. Solved

Since a Binary Puzzle has to satisfy the conditions (1), (2) and (3), we

consider these conditions separately and split the computation into several

different parts, where each part corresponds to a particular condition.

That means we consider the following collections of m × n binary arrays that

are constrained:

satisfies (1) };

satisfies (2) };

satisfies (3) };

satisfies (1), (2) and (3) };

satisfies (1) and (2) },

where is the set of all m × n binary arrays.

The first three collections correspond to condition (1), (2), and (3),

respectively. The main goal is to find the rate of arrays satisfying all three

conditions, but we also consider collection of arrays satisfying first and second

conditions, to have a better approximation on the size of collections of arrays

satisfying all conditions.

Although the exact size of Am×n,Bm×n, Dm×n and Em×n is still an open problem,

we provide lower and upper bounds of their size, and also of the asymptotic rates.

The exact size of Cm×n is acquired by means of a recursive formula.

2. Main Results

Definition 2.1. Let C be a code in Qn, where the alphabet Q has q elements.

Recall that the (information) rate of C is defined by

.

Let C be a collection of codes over a fixed alphabet Q with q elements.

The length of C ⊆ Qn is n and is denoted by n(C). Suppose that the length n(C)

goes to infinity for C ∈ C. The upper and lower asymptotic rate or capacity of C

are defined by

and in case the limit exists, that means 𝑅 (C) = R(C) it will be denoted by R(C).

50

Let Am be the collection of all codes Am×n for fixed m and all positive integers

n and let A be the collection of all codes Am×n for all positive integers m, n.

Similarly the collections Bm, Cm, Dm, Em and B, C, D, E are defined.

2.1. First Constraint.

An array that satisfies the first constraint of the Binary Puzzle is often called

a constrained array. Finding the capacity of certain constrained arrays has been

studied recently [3, 9, 10, 16, 17] for storage information in 2D and holographic

recoding, for 2D barcodes, and in statistical mechanics.

The theory of constrained sequences, that is for m = 1, is well established

and uses the theory of graphs and the eigenvalues of the incidence matrix of the

graph to give a linear recurrence. See [5, 6, 8]. An explicit formula for the number

of such sequences of a given length n can be expressed in terms of the

eigenvalues. The asymptotical rate is equal to logq(λmax), where λmax is the largest

eigenvalue of the incidence matrix. Shannon [12] showed already that the

following Fibonacci relation holds for n ≥ 1:

|A1×(n+2)| = |A1×(n+1)| + |A1×n|.

Asymptotically this gives

Furthermore |A2×n| = |A1×n|2, since there is no constraint for the columns in case m

= 2. Therefore also .

Using the same idea, we can find the capacity R(Am) where the code Am×n of

Am is viewed as a code of constrained sequences of length n in the alphabet

. For m we get in this way the graph Γm with Am×2 as set of vertices. A

directed edge in Γm is from vertex X to vertex Y such that (X|Y ) is in Am×4. So the

degree of the characteristic polynomial is |Am×1|2, where |Am×1| is given by the

Fibonacci sequence 2, 4, 6, 10,...,110 for m = 1,2,3,4,...,9. So in particular, the

degree of the characteristic polynomial pm(λ) in case of m = 9 is equal to 1102 =

12,100. The largest eigenvalue λm of the incidence matrix of Γm, is not computed

as the largest root of pm(λ), but approximated numerically by Rayleigh quotients

[9], that is by the power method with entry scaling. This straight forward idea is

due-able for m ≤ 9 with capacities given in Table 1.

It is clear that |A(l+m)×n| ≤ |Am×l|·|Am×n|, since we can split an array Z in A(l+m)×n into

two arrays of X and Y in Am×l and Am×n, respectively, where X consists of the first l

rows of Z, and Y of the last m rows of Z. Hence R(Am×2n) ≤ R(Am×n).

On the other hand, suppose X ∈ Al×n with last row x and Y ∈ Am×n with first

row y. Let Z be the (l + m + 2) × n array with X in the first l rows of Z, and Y in

the last m rows of Z, and 𝒙 in row l + 1 and 𝒚 in row l + 2, where 𝒙 is the

complementary column by changing every zero in a one and every one in a zero.

Then Z is an element of A(l+m+2)×n. Hence |Al×n|·|Am×n| ≤ |A(l+m+2)×n|.

𝑚

Therefore 𝑅(𝐴𝑚×𝑛 ) ≤ 𝑅(𝐴(2𝑚+2)×𝑛 ) . Similarly as in [17], we get for the

𝑚+1

capacities

51

Now R(Am) is decreasing in m and ) is increasing in m. So in this way

we get lower and upper bounds on the lower capacity R(A):

.

But in contrast to the case for constrained sequences, there is so far no theory

available that gives a closed formula for the capacity of constrained arrays.

1 1.6180 0.69424 0.34712 1 2.6180 0.347120

2 6.8541 0.69424 0.46283 2 10.0125 0.415465

3 11.7793 0.59303 0.44477 3 29.3321 0.406200

4 23.5755 0.56990 0.45592 4 89.7965 0.405536

5 44.3167 0.54697 0.45581

5 284.9148 0.407719

6 85.3928 0.53467 0.45829

7 162.9352 0.52486 0.45925

8 312.1198 0.51787 0.46033

9 596.9673 0.51230 0.46107

Using the same idea as before we can also find R(E2m). The corresponding

graph Λm has E2m×2 as set of vertices, which is the subset of A2m×2 of arrays that

have balanced columns. So Λm is a subgraph of Γ2m. The corresponding result is

shown in Table 2. The number of vertices of Λ5 is 7,056.

A sequence of even length is called balanced, if the number of zeros is equal

to the number ones. The number of balanced sequences of length 2m is .

The rows of an 2 × 2m array in B2×2m are complementary to each other. Hence

and .

The number of all l×2m binary matrices such that all the rows are balanced

2𝑚 𝑙

is equal to ( ) . If 𝑋 is an l×2m binary matrix such that all its rows are

𝑚

balanced, then the 2l × 2m binary matrix that is obtained by adding 𝑋 under X has

all its rows and columns balanced, where 𝑋 is the complement of X. Hence

.

1

From these inequalities it follows that, asymptotically: ≤ 𝑅(ℬ2𝑙 ) ≤ 1 for all l.

2

52

TABLE 3. Capacity of ℬ2𝑙 TABLE 4. Rate of B2m×2m

l 𝑅(ℬ2𝑙 ) m R(B2m×2m)

1 0.5 1 0.25000

2 0.6462 2 0.40574

3 0.7203 3 0.50502

4 0.7259 4 0.57448

5 0.7977 5 0.62546

6 0.8210 6 0.66453

7 0.8389 7 0.69550

|B2m×2m|4. Therefore R(B2m×2m) is increasing in m.

Let bl×m = |Bl×m|. The exact number of b2m×2m can be obtained recursively. Let

i = (i1,...,il) and j = (ji,...,jm). Denote by bl×m(i;j) the collection of all l × m arrays

with 0/1’s such that there are is ones in row s, for all s = 1,...,l, and there are jt ones

in column t, for all t = 1,...,m.

Suppose we know the number of bl×m(x;j) and bl×m(y;j) for all x and y. It is

clear that bl×(m+n)(i;[j k]) is equal to summation of bl×m(x;j)·bl×m(y;j) for all possible

x and y such that x + y = i. In other word,

𝑥+𝑦=𝑖

Consider 𝐶̃𝑚×𝑛 the set of all m×n binary arrays that have mutually distinct

columns. Let . Then C˜m×n can de identified with all words in with

mutually distinct entries. Hence |C˜m×n| = 2m(2m −1)···(2m −n+1). Now Cm×n is a

subcode of C˜m×n. Therefore

|Cm×n| ≤ 2m(2m − 1)···(2m − n + 1).

In particular |Cm×n| = 0 for all n > 2m. So 𝑅(𝒞𝑚 ) = 0. Therefore 𝑅(𝒞) = 0.

Let X in Cm×m. Then all the rows of X are distinct and all its columns are

distinct. We can extend X to an (m + 1) × (m + 1) array in C(m+1)×(m+1) by appending

53

a column y and a row z to X, such that still all rows are distinct and all columns are

distinct. Then y is an m×1 array and z is an (m+1)×1 array. There are 2𝑚+1 − 𝑚

possibilities for y and 2m+1 − m possibilities for z. Hence, if m = n, we have

|C(m+1)×(m+1)| ≥ |Cm×m| · (22m+1 − 3m2m + m2).

Suppose we have an arbitrary m × m binary array, say X. Let 𝑙 = ⌈𝑙𝑜𝑔2(𝑚)⌉ +

1. Let Y be an l×m binary array such that all its columns are mutually distinct and

have weight not equal to one. Such an array exists, since m ≤ 2l − l. Then (Y |Il) is

an l × (m + l) array such that all its columns are mutually distinct. Let Z be the (m

+ l) × (m + l) array such that X is the upper m × m subarray of Z in the first m rows

and columns, with (Y |Il) in its last l rows and (Y |Il)T in its last l columns. Then Z

is an array with mutually distinct columns and mutually distinct rows. Hence

2

|𝐶(𝑚+𝑙)×(𝑚+𝑙) | ≥ 2𝑚 . So

1 = 𝑅(𝒞), and 𝑅(𝒞) is not defined.

A partition of a set of m elements is a collection of non-empty subsets that

are mutually disjoint and their union is the whole set. The collection of all

partitions of t non-empty subsets of the set of {1,...,m} is denoted by 𝒮(𝑚, 𝑡). The

number |𝒮(𝑚, 𝑡)| is called the Stirling number of the second kind and is denoted

by S(m,t). Then S(m,0) = 0, S(m,1) = S(m,m) = 1 and the following recurrence

relations hold [14]:

S(m + 1,t) = tS(m,t) + S(m,t − 1).

The following explicit formula holds [13]:

.

Proposition 2.1. The numbers |Cm×n| satisfy the following recurrence:

𝑚

𝑡=1

Proof. Let Cmt ×n be the collection of all m × n binary arrays that have mutually

distinct columns and have exactly t mutually distinct rows. Then in particular

1

|𝐶𝑚×𝑛 | = |𝐶1×𝑛 | = |𝐶̃1×𝑛 |

Since the are mutually distinct for k = 1,...,m, and give a partitioning of

C˜m×n, we have that .

We have seen before that |C˜m×n| = 2m(2m − 1)···(2m − n + 1).

𝑡

Let 𝑋 ∈ 𝐶𝑚×𝑛 and let xi be the i-th row of X. Define the sequence y1,...,yt by

induction as follows y1 = x1. Suppose that y1,...,yi are defined. Then yi+1 is the first

row in X that is distinct from y1,...,yi. Then y1,...,yt are mutually distinct and give a

54

t × n array Y ∈ Ct×n such that yi is the i-th row of Y . Let Ij = {i|xi = yj for j = 1,...,t.

Then ℐ = {𝐼1 , … , 𝐼𝑡 } is a partitioning of {1,...,m} with t non-empty subsets.

Conversely, let Y be in Ct×n with rows y1,...,yt. Let ℐ = {𝐼1 , … , 𝐼𝑡 } be a

partitioning of {1,...,m} with t non-empty subsets. Without loss of generality we

may reorder I1,...,It such that 1 ∈ I1 and the minimal j ∈ {1,...,m} that is not in I1 ∪

··· ∪ Ii, is in Ii+1 for all i < t. Let X be the m × n matrix such that the i-row of X is

equal to yj is i ∈ Ij. Then .

𝑡

In this way we have obtained a bijection between 𝐶𝑚×𝑛 and 𝐶𝑡×𝑛 × 𝒮(𝑚, 𝑡).

m R(Cm×m)

1 1.00000

3 0.89382

TABLE 6. Rate of Cm×m

5 0.96765

m R(D2m×2m)

8 0.99527

1 0.25

11 0.99936

2 0.39

12 0.99967

3 0.34

15 0.99995

17 0.99998

25 0.99999

The size of D2m×2m can be approximated by smaller building blocks such that

the conditions are still satisfied. There are exactly two building block of size

1 2 1

2 × 2. Hence, 𝑅(𝐷2𝑚×2𝑚 ) ≥ log 2 (2𝑚 ) = , for m ≥ 1.

(2𝑚)2 4

It is shown by De Biasi [2] that asymptotically the rate rate of D2m×2m is the

same as A2m×2m ∩ B2m×2m as m goes to infinity, by an argument similar to our proof

showing that limm→∞ R(Cm×m) = 1.

For constrained sequences it is known that the capacity does not change if

one adds the condition that the sequence is balanced [4, 7]. It seems that a similar

balancing argument as in [16] is not true for our constrained arrays, since

A2m×2m ∩ B2m×2m ⊆ E2m×2m ⊆ A2m×2m

and Tables 1 and 2 indicate that R(E2m) < R(A2m). Therefore more research is

needed to determine R(D), that is the capacity of Binary Puzzles.

55

References

[1] E.R. Canfield and B.D. Mckay, Asymptotic enumeration of dense 0-1

matrices with equal row sums and equal column sums. The Electronic

Journal of Combinatorics , vol. 12, # R29, Jun 2005.

[2] M. De Biasi, Binary puzzle is NP-complete, http://nearly42.org

[3] T. Etzion and K.G. Paterson, Zero/positive capacities of Two-Dimensional

RunlengthConstrained Arrays. IEEE Trans. on Information Theory, vol. 51

no. 9, pp. 3186–3199, Sept 2005.

[4] P.S. Henry, Zero disparity coding systems. US Patent 4 309 694, 1982.

[5] H.D.L. Hollmann, Modulation Codes. Philips Electronics N.V., PhD thesis

Techn. Univ. Eindhoven, 1996.

[6] K.A.S. Immink, P.H. Siegel, and J.K. Wolf, Codes for digital recorders.

IEEE Trans. on Information Theory, vol. 44 no. 6, pp. 2260–2299, Oct

1998.

[7] D.E. Knuth, Efficient balanced codes. IEEE Trans. on Information Theory,

vol. 32, pp. 51–53, 1986.

[8] D. Lind and B. Marcus, An introduction to symbolic dynamics and coding.

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1995.

[9] E. Louidor and B.H. Marcus, Improved lower bounds on the capacities of

symmetric 2D constraints using Rayleigh quotients. IEEE Trans. on

Information Theory, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 1624-1639, April 2010.

[10] B. Marcus, Capacity of higher-dimensional constrained systems. Coding

Theory and Applications, CIM Series in Mathmatical Sciences vol. 3, pp.

3–21, 2015.

[11] E. Ordentlich and R.M. Roth, Two-dimensional weight-constrained codes

through enumeration bounds. IEEE Trans. on Information Theory, vol. 46,

no.4, pp. 1292-1301, Jul 2000.

[12] C.E. Shannon, A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System

Technical Journal, vol. 27 no. 10, pp. 379–423, October 1948.

[13] H. Sharp Cardinality of finite topologies. J. Combinatorial Theory, vol. 5,

pp. 82-86, 1968.

[14] R.P. Stanley Enumerative Combinatorics Volumes 1 and 2. Cambridge

University Press, Cambridge 1997, 1999.

[15] P. Utomo and R. Pellikaan, Binary Puzzles as an Erasure Decoding

Problem. Proc. 36th WIC Symp. on Information Theory in the Benelux , pp.

129–134 May 2015.

http://www.w-i-c.org/proceedings/proceedings_SITB2015.pdf.

[16] A. Vardy, M. Blaum, P.H. Siegel and G.T Sincerbox, Conservative arrays:

Multidimensional modulation codes for holographic recoding. IEEE Trans.

on Information Theory, vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 227–230, Jan 1996.

[17] W. Weeks and R.E. Blahut, The capacity and coding gain of certain

chekerboard codes. IEEE Trans. on Information Theory, vol. 44, no. 3, pp.

1193–1203, May 1998.

56

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Invited Speakers

cryptosystem

Ruud Pellikaan1,a) and Irene Márquez-Corbella2,b)

1

Discrete Mathematics, Techn. Univ. Eindhoven

P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands.

2

SECRET Project-Team - INRIA, Paris-Rocquencourt

B.P. 105, 78153 Le Chesnay Cedex France.

a)g.r.pellikaan@tue.nl

b)irene.marquez-corbella@inria.fr

quantum resistant cryptography. Indeed, together with lattice-based cryptography,

multivariate cryptography and hash-based cryptography are the principal available

techniques for post-quantum cryptography. Many families of codes have been proposed for

these cryptosystems. One of the main requirements is having high performance t-bounded

decoding algorithms which in the case of having an error correcting pair is achieved. In this

article the class of codes with a t-ECP is proposed for the McEliece cryptosystem. The

hardness of retrieving the t-ECP for a given code is considered. As a first step we give a

survey of results about distinguishers of several subclasses. Recent results will be surveyed.

INTRODUCTION

The notion of public key cryptography (PKC) was first published in the

public domain in 1976 by Diffie and Hellman though Merkle and Hellman had

developed some of the key concepts during the same time. In fact, Ellis published

the same idea already in 1970 and called it non-secret encryption but it was not

made public until 1997, see [32, p. 279–292]. The advantage with respect to

symmetric key cryptography is that it does not require an initial exchange of

secrets between sender and receiver. A one-way function is the crucial concept in

their papers. After forty years one can still state with [16] that:

“At the heart of any public-key cryptosystem is a one-way function - a

function y = f(x) that is easy to evaluate but for which it is computationally

infeasible (one hopes) to find the inverse x = f−1(y)”.

Well known (supposedly) one-way functions are:

1. Discrete logarithm for which a group G (written multiplicatively) and an

element a ∈ G are required, then x is an integer and y = ax. The security of the

key exchange proposed by Williamson and Diffie-Hellman in 1974 and 1976,

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Proceedings of IICMA 2015

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field.

2. Integer factorization where x = (p,q) is a pair of distinct prime numbers and

y = pq is its product. The security of the cryptosystem proposed by Cocks and

Rivest-Shamir-Adleman (RSA) from 1973 and 1978, respectively is based on

the hardness of factorizing integers.

3. Integer knapsack where an n-tuple of integers a1,...,an is given, then x is an

n-tuple of zeros and ones and . The Merkle-Hellman public key

system from 1978 is based on the difficulty of the integer knapsack problem.

4. Decoding error-correcting codes where an n-tuple of vectors h1,...,hn in Frq is

given, then x is an n-tuple of elements in Fq and . In

1978 McEliece [24] presents the first PKC system based on the difficulty of

decoding error-correcting codes.

5. Elliptic curve discrete logarithm where G is an elliptic curve group (written

additively) over a finite field, x = P is a point on the curve and y = kP is

another point on the curve obtained by the multiplication of P with a positive

integer k. Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) proposed independently by

Koblitz and Miller in 1985 is based on the difficulty of inverting this function

in the group of points on an elliptic curve over a finite field.

All known public key cryptosystems depend for their security on an

unproven proposition. In the cases (3) and (4) it depends on the assumption that P

6= NP. Even if this is indeed the case, it is not shown that most of the cases are

difficult to solve, since the theory of NP completeness deals with the worst-case

situation. Finally, it may be that in the average the problem is difficult, but that

the particular instances used in the system can be broken by a structural attack.

That in fact was the fate of the Merkle-Hellman public-key system.

With the discovery of Shor’s algorithm anyone with a quantum computer

can break in polynomial time all cryptosystems whose security depends on the

difficulty of the problems (1), (2) and (5). Post-quantum cryptography gave birth

to the next generation of cryptography algorithms, which are designed to run on

conventional computers but no attacks by classical or quantum computers are

known against them. See [4] for an overview of the state of the art in this area.

It may be the fate of all proposed one-way functions that they will be

broken in the future. It may also be the case that some party has already broken

some widely used one-way function without revealing it in the public domain for

their own benefit. The key difficulty lies in the fact that present day knowledge on

lower bounds on the complexity of these functions is still out of reach. This is a

sobering and humbling conclusion after so many years of research. So we

continue with the practice of proposing and refuting PKC systems.

In 1978, McEliece [24] presented the first PKC system based on the theory

of error-correcting codes. Its main advantages are its fast encryption and

decryption schemes. However, the main drawback of the original McEliece was

its large key size. But this does not mean that code-based cryptography is

inherently inefficient. Indeed, there have been impressive achievements in this

area (reducing the key size while keeping the same level of security): now [26]

there are constructions with compact keys or around 5000 bits for 80 bits of

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cryptosystems such as proposed by McEliece [24] and Niederreiter [27] are

interesting candidates for post-quantum cryptography. See the survey [5].

A code C is a linear subspace of . The parameters of the code are denoted

by [n,k,d], where n is its length, k its dimension and d its minimum distance. The

problem of minimum distance decoding has as input (G,y), where G is a generator

matrix of a code C over Fq of parameters [n,k,d] and y is a received word.

The output is a codeword c ∈ C of minimal distance to y. One can phrase the

problem equivalently in terms of a parity check matrix H of the code.

Then the input is (H,s), where s . The output is an e of minimal

weight such that eHT = s. The relation of the two versions is given by s = yHT the

syndrome and e = y−c the error vector of the received word y. The bounded

distance decoding problem depends on a function t(n,k,d). The input is again

(H,s) but the output is a word e (if any) such that wt(e) ≤ t(n,k,d). Moreover

decoding up to half the minimum distance is the bounded distance decoding

problem such that t(n,k,d) = b(d − 1)/2c for all n, k and d. The solution of the

decoding problems posed above has two parts [13]. Firstly the preprocessing part

done at a laboratory or a factory where for an appropriate code C a decoder AC is

built which is allowed to be time consuming. Secondly the actual operating of the

many copies of the decoder for consumers which should work very fast. So we

can consider the problem of minimum distance decoding with preprocessing.

From the error-correction point of view it seems pointless to decode a bad code,

but for breaking the McEliece cryptosystem by a general or generic attack one

must be able to decode efficiently all, or almost all, codes.

The security of code-based cryptosystems is based on the hardness of

decoding up to half the minimum distance. The minimum distance decoding

problem was shown by Berlekamp-McEliece-Van Tilborg [3] to be NP-hard.

However it is not known whether this problem is almost always or in the average

difficult. The status of the hardness of decoding up to half the minimum distance

is an open problem. McEliece proposed to use binary Goppa codes for his PKC

system.

All known minimum distance decoding algorithms for general codes have

exponential complexity in the length of the code. The complexity exponent of

decoding general binary codes up to half the minimum distance has been lowered

from above 1/3 that is 0.3869 for brute force decoding to below 1/20 that is

0.04934. See [1,31]. However there are several classes of codes such as the

generalized Reed-Solomon (GRS), BCH, Goppa or algebraic geometry codes

which have polynomial decoding algorithms that correct up to a certain bound

which is at most half the minimum distance.

In the McEliece PKC system the public key space K is the collection of all

generator matrices of a chosen class of codes that have an efficient decoding

algorithm that corrects all patterns of t errors, the plaintext space is

Wn,q,t, where Wn,q,t is the collection of all e of weight t, and the ciphertext

sample space is given by Ω = P × K. The encryption map

EG : P → C for a given key G ∈ K is defined by EG(m,e) = mG + e. An adversary

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A(EG(x),G) = x.

Let C be a class of codes such that every code C in C has an efficient

decoding algorithm correcting all patterns of t errors. Let be a generator

matrix of C. In order to mask the origin of G, take a k × k invertible matrix S over

Fq and an n × n permutation or monomial matrix P. Then for the McEliece PKC

the matrices G, S and P are kept secret while G0 = SGP is made public.

Furthermore the (trapdoor) one-way function of this cryptosystem is usually

presented as follows:

where m ∈

Fkq is the plaintext and e ∈

Fnq is a random error vector with Hamming

weight at most t.

bounded distance decoding for the class of codes that have the same parameters

as the Goppa codes is difficult in the worst-case. However, it is still an open

problem whether decoding up to half the minimum distance is NP-hard which is

the security basis of the McEliece cryptosystem.

which is equivalent in terms of security. Niederreiter’s system differs from

McEliece’s system in the public-key structure (it uses a parity check matrix

instead of a generator matrix of the code), in the encryption mechanism (we

compute the syndrome of a message by the public key) and in the decryption

message. Niederreiter proposed several classes of codes such as alternant codes

which contains the Goppa codes as subclass, algebraic geometry codes introduced

by Goppa [14] and GRS codes.

be a parity check matrix of a code C in C. H is masked

by H0 = SHP, where S is an invertible matrix over Fq of size n − k and P is an n ×

n permutation or monomial matrix. The (trapdoor) one-way function in case of

the Niederreiter PKC is presented by

The security of a general attack of the PKC systems of McEliece and

Niederrieter is based on two assumptions [5, 15]:

A.1 In the average it is difficult to decode t errors for all codes that have the same

parameters as the codes used as key,

A.2 It is difficult to distinguish arbitrary codes from those coming from K.

Concerning the second assumption recent progress is made [8, 10, 11] where it is

shown that one can distinguish between high rate Goppa, alternant and random

codes.

Assuming the Kerckhoff principle, the attacker knows the class K. A key

recovery or structural attack uses the special structure of codes in the class of K.

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one takes for public key space the generator matrices of GRS codes.

It was shown in [9, 17, 28, 29] that the known efficient bounded distance

decoding algorithms of GRS, BCH, Goppa and algebraic geometry codes can be

described by a basic algorithm using an error-correcting pair. That means that the

proposed McEliece cryptosystems that use these classes of codes are in fact using

the error-correcting pair as a secret key. Hence the security of these PKC systems

is not only based on the inherent intractability of bounded distance decoding but

also on the assumption that it is difficult to retrieve efficiently an error-correcting

pair.

Error-Correcting Pairs

From now on the dimension of a linear code C will be denoted by k(C) and

its minimum distance by d(C). Given two elements a and b in , the star

multiplication is defined by coordinatewise multiplication, that is a∗ b =

(a1b1,...,anbn) while the standard inner multiplication is defined by a

.

Let A, B and C be subspaces of . Then A ∗ B is the subspace generated by

{a ∗ b | a ∈ A and b ∈ B}. And C⊥ = {x|x · c = 0 for all c ∈ C} is the dual code

of C. Furthermore A ⊥ B if and only if a · b = 0 for all a ∈ A and b ∈ B.

Consider the following properties:

Let C be a linear code in . The pair (A,B) of linear codes over Fqm of

length n is called a t-error-correcting pair (ECP) for C if the conditions E.1, E.2,

E.3 and E.4 hold.

If (A,B) is a pair of codes that satisfies conditions E.1, E.2, E.3, E.5 and E.6,

then d(C) ≥ 2t + 1 and (A,B) is a t-ECP for C by [29, Corollary 3.4].

The notion of an error-correcting pair for a linear code was introduced in 1988 by

Pellikaan [28] and independently by Kötter in [17, 18] in 1992. It is shown that a

linear code in with a t-error-correcting pair has a decoding algorithm which

corrects up to t errors with complexity O(n3).

Generalized Reed-Solomon (GRS) codes are the prime examples of codes

that have a t-error-correcting pair. Moreover if C is an [n,n − 2t,2t + 1] code

which has a t-error-correcting pair, then C is a GRS code. This is trivial if t = 1,

proved for t = 2 in [29, Theorem 6.5] and for arbitrary t in [23].

The existence of ECP’s for GRS and algebraic geometry codes was shown

in [28]. For many cyclic codes Duursma and Kötter in [9, 17, 18] have found

ECP’s which correct beyond the designed BCH capacity.

The class of GRS codes was mentioned by Niederreiter [27] in his proposal of a

code-based PKC. However GRS codes are not suited for a coded-based PKC by

the attack of Sidelnikov-Shestakov.

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no longer secure with nowadays computing power as shown in Peters et al. [31,

30] by improving decoding algorithms for general codes.

The class of subcodes of GRS codes was proposed by Berger-Loidreau [2]

for code-based PKC to resist precisely the Sidelnikov-Shestakov attack. But for

certain parameter choices this proposal is also not secure as shown by

Wieschebrink [33, 34] and M´arquez et al. [20].

Algebraic geometry codes were proposed by Niederreiter [27] and

JanwaMoreno [14] for code based PKC systems. This system was broken for low

genus at most two [12, 25] and for arbitrary genus by M´arquez et al. [7, 19, 21]

for certain choices of the parameters.

Subfield subcodes of algebraic geometry codes were proposed by

JanwaMoreno [14] and broken by Couvreur et al. [6] for certain parameters. The

class of Goppa codes remains so far unbroken.

Let P(n,t,q) be the collection of pairs (A,B) such that there exist a positive

integer m and a pair (A,B) of Fqm-linear codes of length n, that satisfy the

conditions E.2, E.3, E.5 and E.6. Let C be the Fq-linear code of length n that is the

subfield subcode that has the elements of A ∗ B as parity checks. So

.

Then the minimum distance of C is at least 2t + 1 and (A,B) is a t-ECP for C as

was noted before. Let F(n,t,q) be the collection of Fq-linear codes of length n and

minimum distance d ≥ 2t + 1. Consider the following map

If the map ϕ(n,t,q) is indeed difficult to invert, then we will call it the ECP

one-way function and the code C with parity check matrix W might be used as a

public-key in a coding based PKC. Otherwise it would mean that the PKC based

on codes that can be decoded by error-correcting pairs is not secure.

Let 𝐾 be a collection of generator matrices of codes that have a t-error

correcting pair and that is used for a coded-based PKC system. We address

assumption whether we can distinguish arbitrary codes from those coming from

𝐾.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

An earlier version of this work was presented for the first time by the second

author at the Code-Based Cryptography Workshop, May 2012 at the Technical

University of Denmark, Lyngby and posted at arXiv [22] and furthermore at the

conferences Applications of Computer Algebra 2013 and 2014 at Malaga and

Fordham, respectively.

62

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Invited Speakers

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[30] C. Peters, Information-set decoding for linear codes over Fq. In: Post-

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based on GRS subcodes. In: Post-Quantum Cryptography, Lecture Notes

in Computer Science. vol. 6061, pp. 61–72. Springer, Berlin (2010).

65

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Graph and Combinatorics

Rainbow Connection Number of The Graph

(𝒅𝟐 (𝑷𝒏 ) + 𝑲𝟏 )

1,2

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas

Indonesia

a)

prastiwi10diah@gmail.com

b)

kiki@sci.ui.ac.id

Abstract. Let 𝐺 be a nontrivial connected graph with an edge-coloring 𝑐: 𝐸(𝐺) → {1,2, … , 𝑘},𝑘 ∈

ℕ. A path is called rainbow if no two edges in the path have the same color. The graph 𝐺 is

rainbow connected if any two vertices of 𝐺 are connected by a rainbow path in 𝐺. The rainbow

connection number of 𝐺, denoted 𝑟𝑐(𝐺), is the smallest number of colors needed to make 𝐺

rainbow connected. The strong rainbow connection number of 𝐺, denoted by 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺), is the

smallest number of colors needed so that for any two vertices 𝑥, 𝑦 ∈ 𝑉(𝐺) there is a rainbow 𝑥 −

𝑦 − path which is also geodesic. In an earlier finding, the first author has found the 𝑟𝑐 and 𝑠𝑟𝑐 of

𝑑2 (𝑃𝑛 ), the shadow graph of a path-graph. In this paper we compute the 𝑟𝑐 and 𝑠𝑟𝑐 of the sum of

this graph with a 𝐾1 . For 𝑛 ≤ 6, 𝑟𝑐 (𝑑2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + 𝐾1 ) = 𝑠𝑟𝑐 (𝑑2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + 𝐾1 ) = 2. For 𝑛 ≥

𝑛

7, 𝑟𝑐 (𝑑2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + 𝐾1 ) = 3 and 𝑠𝑟𝑐 (𝑑2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + 𝐾1 ) = ⌈ ⌉, with 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚(𝑑2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + 𝐾1 ) = 2.

3

1. Introduction

Chartrand et al. [1] introduced rainbow connection. Let 𝐺 be a nontrivial

connected graph with an edge-coloring 𝑐: 𝐸(𝐺) → {1, … , 𝑘}. A path is called

rainbow if no two edges in the path have the same color. The graph is rainbow

connected if any two vertices of 𝐺 are connected by a rainbow path in 𝐺. The

rainbow connection number of 𝐺, denoted 𝑟𝑐(𝐺), is the smallest number of colors

needed to make 𝐺 rainbow connected. The strong rainbow connection number of

𝐺, denoted 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺), is the smallest number of colors needed so that any two

vertices of 𝐺 are connected by a rainbow geodesic in 𝐺. Chartrand et. al. [1] proved

the following basic results, which we collect as a lemma.

Lemma 1. Let 𝐺 be a nontrivial connected graph. Then,

1) 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚(𝐺) ≤ 𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≤ 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≤ |𝐸(𝐺)|

2) 𝑟𝑐(𝐺) = 2 if and only if 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺) = 2.

3) 𝑟𝑐(𝐺) = 1 if and only if 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺) = 1 if and only if 𝐺 is a complete graph.

We study a class of graphs arising from two constructions: shadow and sum.

As described by Vaidya and Shah [2], the shadow of a graph 𝐻 is new graph

that is obtained by cloning 𝐻 into a new disjoint but isomorphic graph 𝐻 ′ , and then

66

connecting each vertex 𝑥 of 𝐻 with all neighbors of 𝑥 ′ , the clone of 𝑥 in 𝐻 ′ . Note

that there is no edge between any vertex and its clone. The resulting graph is

denoted 𝐷2 (𝐻). The sum of two vertex-disjoint graphs 𝐽 and 𝐾 is obtained by

joining each vertex of 𝐽 to all vertices of 𝐾. The resulting graph is denoted by 𝐽 +

𝐾.

Summing any graph 𝐽 with 𝐾1 diminishes the diameter to 2, because from

any vertex of 𝐽 we can go to 𝐾1 , and then return to any other vertex of 𝐽.

Intuitively, this would also decrease the rainbow connection number of 𝐽 + 𝐾1 .

This is relatively easy to see when 𝐽 is the shadow of some graph.

Lemma 2. For any graph 𝐻 with no isolated vertices, we have 𝑟𝑐(𝐷2 (𝐻) + 𝐾1 ) ≤

3.

P ROOF . Let 𝐺 = 𝐷2 (𝐻) + 𝐾1 .We prove this lemma by giving a rainbow coloring

on 𝐺 with 3 colors. Define 𝑐: 𝐺 → {1,2,3} as follows. Let 𝑉(𝐻) = {𝑣1 , … , 𝑣𝑛 } and

𝑉(𝐾1 ) = {𝑢}.

On 𝐸(𝐷2 (𝐻)), define 𝑐 to have value 1.

𝑐(𝑣𝑖 𝑢) = 1 and 𝑐(𝑣𝑖′ 𝑢) = 2 for each 𝑖 ∈ {1, … , 𝑛}.

𝑐(𝑣𝑖 𝑣𝑗′ ) = 3 if 𝑣𝑖 and 𝑣𝑗 are adjacent in 𝐻.

Now we show that 𝑐 is rainbow. Take any 𝑥, 𝑦 ∈ 𝑉(𝐺) which are non-adjacent. If

𝑥, 𝑦 are both original vertices of 𝐻, choose a neighbor of 𝑥, say 𝑤. Then the path

𝑥 − 𝑤 ′ − 𝑢 − 𝑦 has color sequence 3,2,1. Similarly for the case when 𝑥, 𝑦 are both

clones. If 𝑥 is an original vertex and 𝑦 is a clone, then the path 𝑥 − 𝑢 − 𝑦 has color

sequence 1,2.

So, in any case we can find a rainbow path from 𝑥 to 𝑦. The proof of Lemma 2 is

complete. □

path graph on 𝑛 vertices.

67

In Seminar Nasional Matematika UI-UNPAD 2015, the author has described

the rc and src of 𝐷2 (𝑃𝑛 ), which are both equal to the diameter. For 𝐷2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + 𝐾1 , it

turns out that the rc and src are not so trivial.

2. Main Results

Our goal is to prove the following theorem.

Theorem. Let 𝐺 = 𝐷2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + 𝐾1 . Then

2

2 if 𝑛 ≤ 6 if 𝑛 ≤ 6

𝑟𝑐(𝐺) = { , 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺) = { 𝑛

3 if 𝑛 ≥ 7 ⌈ ⌉ if 𝑛 ≥ 7

3

We organize the proof into a sequence of lemmas. For convenience, we fix some

notation. Let 𝐺 = 𝐷2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + 𝐾1 with 𝑉(𝑃𝑛 ) = {𝑣1 , … , 𝑣𝑛 } and 𝑉(𝐾1 ) = {𝑢}.

First we prove an upper bound for src.

𝑛

Lemma 3. For any 𝑛, we have 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≤ max {⌈ ⌉ , 2}.

3

𝑛

P ROOF . Let 𝑘 = max {⌈3 ⌉ , 2}. We prove this by constructing a strong rainbow

coloring on 𝐺 using 𝑘 colors. Define 𝑐: 𝐸(𝐺) → {1, … , 𝑘} as follows.

𝑐(𝑣𝑖 𝑣𝑖+1 ) = 𝑐(𝑣𝑖′ 𝑣𝑖+1

′

) ≔ 1 for 𝑖 odd,

′ ′

𝑐(𝑣𝑖 𝑣𝑖+1 ) = 𝑐(𝑣𝑖 𝑣𝑖+1 ) ≔ 2 for 𝑖 even,

′

𝑐(𝑣𝑖 𝑣𝑖+1 ) = 2 and 𝑐(𝑣𝑖′ 𝑣𝑖+1 ) = 1 for all 𝑖 ∈ {1, … , 𝑛 − 1}, and

𝑛

𝑐(𝑣𝑖 𝑢) = 𝑐(𝑣𝑖′ 𝑢) = ⌈ ⌉ for each 𝑖 ∈ {1, … , 𝑛}.

3

every vertex, so 𝑥, 𝑦 ≠ 𝑢. So we only need to consider three cases.

68

Case 1. 𝑥, 𝑦 are both original vertices of 𝑃𝑛 .

Say 𝑥 = 𝑣𝑖 and 𝑦 = 𝑣𝑗 with 𝑖 < 𝑗. Since they are non-adjacent, 𝑗 ≥ 𝑖 + 2. If 𝑗 =

𝑖 + 2, then the geodesic 𝑣𝑖 − 𝑣𝑖+1 − 𝑣𝑖+2 is rainbow, because it has color sequence

1,2 or 2,1.

𝑖 𝑗

If 𝑗 ≥ 𝑖 + 3, then the path 𝑣𝑖 − 𝑢 − 𝑣𝑗 is geodesic with color sequence ⌈ ⌉ , ⌈ ⌉.

3 3

𝑗 𝑖

Because 𝑗 ≥ 𝑖 + 3, we have ⌈ ⌉ = ⌈ ⌉ + 1. So the path is a rainbow geodesic

3 3

This case is perfectly analogous the Case 1.

Case 3. 𝑥 is original, and 𝑦 is cloned.

Say 𝑥 = 𝑣𝑖 and 𝑦 = 𝑣𝑗′ . If 𝑖 = 𝑗 is an odd number less than 𝑛, the geodesic 𝑣𝑖 −

′

𝑣𝑖+1 − 𝑣𝑖′ has color sequence 2,1. If 𝑖 = 𝑗 is an even number less than 𝑛, the

geodesic 𝑣𝑖 − 𝑣𝑖+1 − 𝑣𝑖′ has color sequence 2,1. If 𝑖 = 𝑗 = 𝑛, one of the geodesics

′

𝑣𝑛 − 𝑣𝑛−1 − 𝑣𝑛′ and 𝑣𝑛 − 𝑣𝑛−1 − 𝑣𝑛′ has color sequence 1,2, depending on whether

𝑛 is odd or even.

If |𝑖 − 𝑗| = 1, then 𝑥, 𝑦 are adjacent.

If |𝑖 − 𝑗| = 2, then either 𝑗 = 𝑖 + 2 or 𝑗 = 𝑖 − 2. If 𝑗 = 𝑖 + 2, the geodesic 𝑣𝑖 −

′ ′

𝑣𝑖+1 − 𝑣𝑖+2 has color sequence 1,2 when 𝑖 is odd, while the geodesic 𝑣𝑖 − 𝑣𝑖+1 −

′ ′

𝑣𝑖+2 has color sequence 2,1 when 𝑖 is even. If 𝑗 = 𝑖 − 2, the geodesic 𝑣𝑖−2 −

′ ′

𝑣𝑖−1 − 𝑣𝑖 has color sequence 1,2 when 𝑖 is odd, while the geodesic 𝑣𝑖−2 − 𝑣𝑖−1 −

𝑣𝑖 has color sequence 2,1 when 𝑖 is even.

𝑖 𝑗

If |𝑖 − 𝑗| ≥ 3, the geodesic 𝑣𝑖 − 𝑢 − 𝑣𝑗 has color sequence ⌈ ⌉ , ⌈ ⌉. Because |𝑖𝑗| ≥

3 3

𝑖 𝑗

3, we have ⌈ ⌉ ≠ ⌈ ⌉. So this geodesic is rainbow. Lemma 2 has been proved. □

3 3

𝑛

Lemma 4. For any 𝑛, we have 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≥ ⌈3 ⌉.

𝑛

P ROOF . Let 𝑙 = ⌈ ⌉. Consider all vertices 𝑣𝑖 with 𝑖 ≡ 1(𝑚𝑜𝑑 3). There are 𝑙 of

3

them. Note that the only geodesic in 𝐺 from 𝑣1 to 𝑣4 is 𝑣1 − 𝑢 − 𝑣4 . Thus

𝑐(𝑣1 𝑢) ≠ 𝑐(𝑣4 𝑢).

Assume that 𝑟 edges 𝑣1 𝑢, 𝑣4 𝑢, … , 𝑣1+3(𝑟−1) 𝑢 uses 𝑟 different colors, where 𝑟 ≤

𝑙 − 1. For each 𝑖 ∈ {0, … , 𝑟 − 1}, the only geodesic in 𝐺 from 𝑣1+3𝑖 to 𝑣1+3𝑟 is

𝑣1+3𝑖 − 𝑢 − 𝑣1+3𝑟 . Thus 𝑐(𝑣1+3𝑖 𝑢) ≠ 𝑐(𝑣1+3𝑟 𝑢). This means that 𝑣1+3𝑟 𝑢 must

use a new color. Inductively, this shows that at least 𝑙 different colors must be used.

The proof of Lemma 4 is complete. □

Now we can proceed to prove the main Theorem.

𝑛

Suppose that 𝑛 ≤ 6. Then ⌈3 ⌉ ≤ 2. Lemma 3 shows that 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≤ 2. But, since 𝐺

is not a complete graph, 𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≥ 2. Together with 𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≤ 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺), this allows us

to conclude that the rc and src are both equal to 2.

69

𝑛 𝑛

Now suppose that 𝑛 ≥ 7. Then ⌈ ⌉ ≥ 3. Lemma 3 and 4 show that 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺) = ⌈ ⌉.

3 3

Thus 𝑠𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≥ 3. This implies that 𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≠ 2. But by Lemma 2 we have 𝑟𝑐(𝐺) ≤

3. So 𝑟𝑐(𝐺) = 3.

The proof is complete. □

3. Concluding Remarks

In this paper we have described completely the rc and src of 𝐷2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + 𝐾1 .

The values differ significantly depending on 𝑛 ≤ 6 or 𝑛 ≥ 7.

It may be interesting to investigate whether Lemma 2 still holds when 𝐽 is

not the shadow of some graph.

Another direction of research that may be taken is to study the rc and src of

𝐷2 (𝐻) + 𝐾1 for more generap garph 𝐻, or 𝐷2 (𝑃𝑛 ) + ̅𝐾̅̅𝑝̅ for 𝑝 ≥ 2, or even

𝐷𝑚 (𝑃𝑛 ) + ̅𝐾̅̅𝑝̅ for 𝑚 ≥ 3.

References

[1] G. Chartrand, G. L. Johns, K. A. McKeon, P. Zhang., 2008, Rainbow

Connection in Graphs, Mathematica Bohemica. Vol 133 no 1 (2008), 85-98.

[2] S.K. Vaidya, N.H. Shah., 2011, Some New Odd Harmonious Graphs,

International Journal of Mathematics and Soft Computing. Vol 1 no 1 (2011),

9 – 16.

70

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Graph and Combinatorics

Modified Map for Digital Image

Suryadi M.T.1,a), Maria Yus Trinity Irsan2,b),

Yudi Satria3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural

Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia

a)

yadi.mt@sci.ui.ac.id

b)

maria.irsan@sci.ui.ac.id

c)

ysatria@sci.ui.ac.id

Abstract. At this time when information technology is developing rapidly, the public's

attention to the data and personal information is very low. This is clearly seen in the behavior

of people who so easily deploy/split the data and personal information in social media.

Moreover, a person's awareness and attention to digital data that can be accessed by off-line is

lower. In fact, even in off-line network, the digital data is very easy to move from person to

another person, which may cause the manipulation or alteration of data. Therefore, it is

essential to provide protection to the data, especially if the data is highly confidential. The

focus of this paper is to protect digital data, specifically digital image (colored digital image).

Protection is provided in the form of encrypted digital image. The encryption process using

𝑟𝜆𝑥𝑛

the new map, 𝑥𝑛+1 = )2

(mod 1), called MS map. In the result, we found the

1+𝜆(1−𝑥𝑛

encrypted digital image using MS map, and how its performance in terms of: the randomness

of key stream; average time of encryption/ decryption process; histogram analysis; quality of

decrypted images; and sensitivity of the initial value. The results showed that the key stream

were generated is random; the average time of the encryption process is relatively same as the

decryption process; histogram of the encrypted image is flat (uniform distribution); the

decrypted images has same quality as the original images and the sensitivity of the initial

value reached 10−17 . So that, the encryption algorithm which developed by MS logistic map

is more resistant to brute-force attack.

Keywords and Phrases: MS map, Logistic map, encryption and decryption

algorithm, digital image.

1. Introduction

Encryption algorithm of digital image based on chaotic system has been

widely introduced, as in [1] – [3]. The study of chaotic systems and their

possible applications to cryptography has received considerable attention during

the last years in part of the scientific community due to the properties of chaotic

system [4]. The properties of chaotic system was described in [4], that is

ergodicity, sensitivity of initial condition/control parameter, mixing property,

deterministic dynamic, and structure complexity.

71

In [1] has introduced an encryption algorithm of digital image and its

performance by using logistic map as a chaotic map. In this paper, we introduced

a new map, called MS map, and it will be applied in the digital image

encryption. MS map shown at equation (1)

𝑟𝜆𝑥𝑛

𝑥𝑛+1 = (1)

1+𝜆(1−𝑥𝑛 )2

First 1000 iteration from MS map shown on figure 1 with 𝑟 = 4; 𝜆 =

5. ; 𝑥0 = 0.1.

2. Main Results

2.1 Encryption Algorithm

In this paper, the encryption process shown on figure 2, and the

decryption process shown on figure 3.

72

FIGURE 3. Decryption process

Let the original image has pixel size 𝑝 × 𝑞. The key stream (𝐾𝑖 ) obtained by:

𝐾𝑖 = (1000 × 𝑥𝑖 ) mod 256 (2)

where 𝑥𝑖 generated by MS map and 𝑖 = 0, 2, … ,3𝑝𝑞 − 1

For simulation, we use Python version 2.7.6.1.

Randomness of key stream can be tested used National Institute of

Standard Technologies (NIST) test [5]. NIST test consist of 15 test, and one of

them is the frequency (monobit) test. We will use this test (the frequency test) to

analyst the randomness of key stream sequence.

The procedure of this test was described on [5]. For 𝑟 = 4; 𝜆 = 5. ; 𝑥0 =

0.1, and generated by 1000 terms of key stream, we obtained:

1. 𝑛 = 1000 × 8 = 8000

2. Using computer to obtained |𝑆1000 | = 162

|𝑆1000 | 162

3. 𝑠𝑜𝑏𝑠 = = = 1.81121506177

√𝑛 √8000

𝑠𝑜𝑏𝑠

4. Using computer to obtained 𝑃𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 𝒆𝒓𝒇𝒄 ( ) =

√2

1.81121506177

𝒆𝒓𝒇𝒄 ( ) = 0.070107567605

√2

Since 𝑃𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 ≥ 0.01 , then we accept the key stream sequence as random.

2.3 Encryption Process

In this paper we will used cat&dog.jpg with 5 different pixel size as data

testing. The data testing shown below:

TABLE 1. Testing Data

Data Testing Display Data Size (Pixel)

Data 1 95 × 60

Data 2 285 × 178

Data 3 855 × 534

Data 4 1538 × 962

Data 5 2563 × 1602

73

Cat&dog.jpg

The result of encryption process shown on table 3, and the average time of

encryption and decryption process of each data shown on figure 4.

(d) (e)

FIGURE 4. Encrypted image (a) data 1; (b) data 2; (c) data 3; (d) data 4; (e)

data 5

400

Time (Second)

300

200 Average Encrytion

Time

100

Average Decryption

0 Time

0 1 2 3 4 5

Data Testing

We will test the distribution of encrypted image pixel value using

Goodness of fit test [6]. The test result shown on table 4.

Test Statistic Value

Data

For Red For Green For Blue

Data 1 239.020350877 260.578245614 255.458245614

Data 2 239.020350877 260.578245614 255.458245614

Data 3 252.799430536 241.17045798 213.568188887

Data 4 239.020350877 260.578245614 255.458245614

Data 5 264.588116785 209.65349205 280.176465918

74

With degrees of freedom 256 − 1 = 255 and 1% significance level, then from

Chi-Squared table we obtained the critical value is 310.4573882199. Since all

the test statistic values are less than the critical value, then we conclude that the

distribution of encrypted image pixel is uniform. Figure 5 shown the histogram

of encrypted image of data 3.

histogram green (c) histogram blue

We will compare the quality of original image and decrypted image, by Peak

Signal –to Noise Ratio (PSNR) which is described in [7] with formula 𝑃𝑆𝑁𝑅 =

𝐿2 1 𝑝−1 𝑞−1

10 log10 , where Mean Squared Error(𝑀𝑆𝐸) = Σ Σ (𝑥(𝑖,𝑗) −

𝑀𝑆𝐸 𝑁 𝑖=0 𝑗=0

2

𝑦(𝑖,𝑗) ) , 𝑁 = 𝑝𝑞, 𝑥(𝑖,𝑗) and 𝑦(𝑖,𝑗) are (𝑖, 𝑗) entry of original image matrix and

decrypted image matrix, respectively. (assume that the image size is 𝑝 pixel ×

𝑞 pixel ).

If 𝑃𝑆𝑁𝑅 = ∞ then we conclude that the original image and the decrypted

image has same quality. Using python we obtained :

Table 3. PSNR result

Data MSE PSNR

Data 1 0 ∞

Data 2 0 ∞

Data 3 0 ∞

Data 4 0 ∞

Data 5 0 ∞

So, we conclude that the quality between the original image and the decrypted

image is same.

In this part, we will decrypted data 3 with different 𝑥0 . In encryption process

we used 𝑥0 = 0.1, in this part we will decrypt the encrypted image with three

different 𝑥0 as shown in table 5 below:

75

TABLE 4. Key Sensitive test result

Original Image 𝒙𝟎 Decrypted Image

0.1 + 10−10

0.1 + 10−17

0.1 + 10−18

From table 5 we seen that the initial value 𝑥0 = 0.1 will same with 𝑥0 =

0.1 + 10−18 , means that the sensitivity of initial value of this algorithm is

reaches 10−17 .

Next Table shown the comparison between MS map algorithm and logistic

map Algorithm in term of exhaustive key search times.

76

TABLE 5. Comparison Between MS Map Algorithm and Logistic Map

Algorithm in Term of exhaustive key search times.

Key Experienc

Seconds Hours Days Months Years

Space e /sec

3.24 3.75 1.25 1.04

106 9 × 10624

628 623 622

× 10 × 10 × 10 × 10621

3.24 3.75 1.25 1.04

1012 9 × 10618

With MS × 10 622

× 10 617

× 10 616

× 10615

map

3.24 3.75 1.25 1.04

algorithm 1024 610

9 × 10606 607 606

× 10 × 10 × 10 × 10605

3.24

× 10634 3.24 3.75 1.25 1.04

1048 9 × 10582

586 581 580

× 10 × 10 × 10 × 10579

3.24 3.75 1.25 1.04

1056 9 × 10574

578 573 572

× 10 × 10 × 10 × 10571

3.87 3.23

106 1024 2.78 × 1020 1.16 × 1019 17

× 10 × 1016

With

Logistic 1.16 3.87 3.23

1012 1018 2.78 × 1014

13 11

map × 10 × 10 × 1010

algorithm 10 24

10 6

278 11.6 0.39 0.0325

1030 [1] 48 −18

10 10

1056 10−26

3. Concluding Remarks

a) MS map can be used on encryption digital image as generator of key stream.

b) Performance of algorithm are :

The encryption algorithm is very difficult to be cracked by known

plaintext attack, since we have proved that the distribution of encrypted

image pixel is uniform. And so the key streams were generated, proved

random by the frequency (monobit) test with 𝑃𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 =

0.620617946438 > 0.01; and by the run test with 𝑃𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 =

0.395958750062 > 0.01

Key sensitivity of the algorithm reaches 10−17 and key space reaches

3.24 × 10634. So that, the encryption algorithm which developed by MS

logistic map is resistant to brute-force attack

The original image and the decrypted image has same quality by PSNR.

Encryption’s time and decryption’s time is relative same

c) MS map algorithm more resistant than logistic map algorithm in terms of

the size of the keys space.

77

References

Encryption Algorithm for Digital Image, TELKOMNIKA

Telecommunication, computing, electronics, and control Vol.12 No.3,

(2014).

[2] E. Nurpeti and M.T. Suryadi (2013), Chaos-Based Encryption Algorithm

for Digital Image, Proceedings IndoMS International Conference on

Mathematics and Its Application 2013, Indonesia Mathematical Society.

[3] E. Sukirman, M.T. Suryadi, and M.A. Mubarak, The Implementation of

Henon Map Algorithm for Digital Image Encryption, TELKOMNIKA

Telecommunication, computing, electronics, and control Vol.12 No.3,

(2013).

[4] L. Kocarev and S. Lian, Chaos-Based Cryptography, Berlin Heidelberg:

Springer-Verlag, (2011).

[5] R. Andrew, et al, A Statistical Test Suite for Random and Pseudorandom

Number Generators for Cryptographic Application. Technology

Administration U.S Department of Commerce. Special Publication 800-22,

(2010).

[6] R.E. Walpole, R. H. Myers, S. L. Myers, K. Ye, Probability and Statistics

for Engineers & Scientists (9th edition), Boston: Prentice Hall, (2012).

[7] A. Verma and I. Kaur, Techniques and Algorithm Design for the Detection

of PSNR in Digital Image. International Journal of Computer Applications

(0975-8887): National Conference on Structuring Innovation Through

Quality 2013, (2013).

78

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Workers and Scholars in Jakarta

1,2,3

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences,

Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia

a)

rianti@sci.ui.ac.id

b)

riyani.dini@gmail.com

c)

yanny.arumsari@gmail.com

Abstract: In this modern era, infidelity has been regarded as a common phenomenon among the

society, including scholar and worker. Nevertheless, according to the law as well as religion,

infidelity is still prohibited. Infidelity causes several negative impacts, such as disease, divorce,

rebellious children, and even death. Looking at this fact, infidelity ought to be prevented right at

the beginning. This research will investigate the factors which may significantly influence the

tendency of infidelity. Several factors to be included in this research is gender, occupation,

education, position at work, age, financial problem, life satisfaction, self-image, need of

acceptance, spiritual level, boredom level, broken-heart experience, income, freedom in making

friend, lifestyle, libido level, marital status, parents’ marital status. The measurement instrument

is self-made and has been proven to be reliable and valid. This research is conducted among 687

workers and scholars in Jakarta. Purposive sampling method is adopted to gather the sample. Data

is analyzed by using Logistic Regression Model. The result shows that gender, financial problem,

spiritual level, libido level and freedom in making friend are the significant factors influencing

the level of infidelity tendency. The result of this research is hoped to help the religious leaders,

counselors, and other related parties to prevent and handle the issue appropriately based on the

factors influencing the tendency of infidelity.

Keywords: Infidelity tendency, Logistic Regression Model

1. Introduction

In these last several years, infidelity has been regarded as a common and lawful

conduct. There are many married couples who have other persons to whom they can date

and have sexual relation outside their legal partners. Infidelity, in which this paper describes

as having sexual relation outside the legal partner, is something against religious view and

has bad effects, such as divorced, sexually transmitted diseases, and others. Looking at the

effect of this conduct, religious leaders, psychologists, counselors, teachers, and other

morale-related parties should raise their awareness towards the magnification of this

phenomenon. Nevertheless, preventive actions should also accompany the raising awareness

in order to reduce the occassion of infidelity among the society. Therefore, knowing what

factors are influecing the tendency of infidelity is important to do preventive actions.

From reports and observations being gathered, it is known that infidelity can be done

by both male and female, both high-degree and low-degree education, both single and

married persons, both wealthy and less-wealthy, and both high-level and low-level of

spirituality. Besides, it is also known that infidelity is triggered by financial problem, life

79

satisfaction, self image, need of acceptance, boredom level, broken-heart experience,

income, freedom in making friends, lifestyle, libido level, own and parents’ marital status.

This paper will investigate what factors significantly influence infidelity tendency level.

Throughout this research, these following questions will be answered: What factors

influence infidelity tendency level among workers and scholars at Jakarta. From this

research, readers may be able to find the factors that influence infidelity tendency level

among workers and scholars at Jakarta By knowing the factors that influence infidelity

tendency level, accurate and appropriate policy can be considered to reduce practice

infidelity, divorce and other bad impacts. Students are excluded from this research’s

respondents

2. Main Results

Variables that are used in this research are:

1. Infidelity Tendency Level: degree to which someone is attracted to do sexual relation

outside his/her legal partner. This variable is a latent variable which is measured

using self-tailored measuring instrument (questionnaire) and has been tested reliable

and valid. This measuring instrument is on the process of granting the copyright from

HAKI. The components of infidelity tendency measured in this measuring instrument

include the degree of norm being followed, the degree of willingness to do infidelity,

and the degree of awareness about the effect of infidelity. Those components are

reflected in the particular questions in the questionnaire.

2. Gender

3. Occupation: respondent’s job field when the survey is conducted

4. Position at work: respondent’s job band when the survey is conducted

5. Education: respondent’s last education degree

6. Age

7. Financial Problem: whether the respondent has financial problem or not

8. Life Satisfaction: degree of how the repondent is satisfied with his/her life. This

variable is measured using Likert Scale and then categorized into three categories

which are low, average, and high.

9. Self Image: degree of how the respondent accepts his/her self. This variable is

measured using Likert Scale and then categorized into three categories which are

low, average and high.

10. Need of acceptance: degree of how the respondent perceives the need to be accepted

by the the society. This variable is measured using Likert Scale and then categorized

into three categories which are low, average and high.

11. Spiritual Level: degree to measure respondent’s relation with God, faith, and

fellowship. This variable is measured using Likert Scale and then categorized into

three categories which are low, average and high.

12. Boredom Level: degree of how the respondent is bored with his/her life. This variable

is measured using Likert Scale and then categorized into three categories which are

low, average and high.

13. Broken Heart Experience: indicator whether or not the respondent ever felt betrayed.

14. Income: respondent’s average monthly income

80

15. Freedom in Making Friend: degree of how free the respondent in making friend. This

variable is measured using Likert Scale and then categorized into three categories

which are low, average and high.

16. Lifestyle: type of respondent’s lifestyle; whether it is conservative or modern.

17. Libido Level: degree of how the respondent is influenced by sexual matters. This

variable is measured using Likert Scale and then categorized into three categories

which are low, average and high.

18. Marital Status: respondent’s marital status when the survey is conducted. This

variable is categorized into four categories, which are single, married, spouse dies,

divorce.

19. Parents Marital Status: marital status of respondent’s parents when the survey is

conducted. This variable is categorized into, divorce, spouse dies

Methodology

Population: workers and scholars in Jakarta

Sample: 687 workers and scholars in Jakarta that are chosen by purposive sampling. Data

will be analyzed by logistic regression method. Since the predictors variables are categorical

variables, coding variables are needed. When all variables are entered to the model, it is

found that only five variables influence the predictor variables significantly, that are freedom

in making friends, spiritual level, libido level, financial problem and gender. The coding of

these variables are shown in Table 1.

TABLE 1. Categorical Variables Codings

Frequenc Parameter coding

y (1) (2) (3)

Very low 180 1,000 ,000 ,000

Freedom making in Low 246 ,000 1,000 ,000

Friend Average 197 ,000 ,000 1,000

High 64 ,000 ,000 ,000

Low 104 1,000 ,000

Spiritual level Average 231 ,000 1,000

High 352 ,000 ,000

Low 236 1,000 ,000

Libido level Average 309 ,000 1,000

High 142 ,000 ,000

Yes 221 1,000

Financial problem

No 466 ,000

Male 1,000

Gender

Female 337 ,000

Original Value Internal Value

Low 0

High 1

81

The Logistic Regression model uses the five significant predictor variables is:

𝑃𝑟(𝐿𝑜𝑤 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑇𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦)

𝑔 = ln ( )

𝑃𝑟(𝐻𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑇𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦)

= 0.87 + 0.941 𝐺𝐸𝑁 − 0.303 𝐹𝐼𝑁𝐴𝑁𝐶 − 1.924 𝐹𝑅𝐸𝐸 (1)

− 1. −0.705 𝐹𝑅𝐸𝐸(3) − 1.368 𝐿𝐼𝐵𝐼𝐷𝑂 (1) − 0.731 𝐿𝐼𝐵𝐼𝐷𝑂 (2)

+ 1.939 𝑆𝑃𝐼𝑅𝐼𝑇𝑈𝐴𝐿 (1) + 0.810 𝑆 (2)

The goodness of fit test of the model with five significant predictor variables is written below:

TABLE 3. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test

Step Chi-square df Sig.

1 7,503 8 ,483

Hypothesis:

H0: The model fits

H1: The model not fits

From table sig = 0.483 is greater than 0.15 means that the model fits or appropriate to use the

model.

TABLE 4. Classification Tablea

Predicted

Infidelity Tendency Percentage

Observed

Level Correct

low high

Low 314 65 82,8

Infidelity Tendency Level

Step 1 High 100 208 67,5

Overall Percentage 76,0

1. Coefficient GEN (0.941)

The risk of high infidelity tendency in male is equal to exp(0.941) = 2.563

times compared to female. The risk of male to have high infidelity tendency

is greater than female.

2. Coefficient FINANC (-0.303)

The risk of high infidelity tendency in the person who have financial problem

is exp(0.303) = 0.738 times compared to person who doesn’t have

financial problem.

The risk of person who have financial problem to have high infidelity

tendency is smaller than person who not have financial problem.

3. Coefficient FREE (1) (-1.924)

The risk of high infidelity tendency in the person who have very low degree

82

of freedom in making friends is exp(−1.924) = 0.146 times compared to

person who have high degree of freedom in making friend.

The risk of person who have very low degree of freedom in making friend to

have high infidelity tendency is smaller than person who have high degree of

feedom in making friends.

4. Coefficient FREE (2) (-1.494)

The risk of high infidelity tendency in the person who have low degree of

freedom in making friends is exp(−1.494) = 0.224 times compared to

person who have high degree freedom in making friends.

The risk of person who have low degree of freedom in making friends to have

high infidelity tendency is smaller than person who have high degree of

feedom making in friend.

5. Coefficient FREE(3) (-0.705)

The risk of high infidelity tendency in the person who have average degree

freedom in making friend is exp(−0.705) = 0.494 times compared to

person who have high degree freedom making in friend.

The risk of person who have average degree of freedom in making friends to

have high infidelity tendency is smaller than person who have high degree

feedom in making friends.

6. Coefficient LIBIDO (1) (-1.368)

The risk of high infidelity tendency in person who have low libido level is

exp(−1.368) = 0.255 times compared to person who have high libido level .

The risk of person who have low libido level to have high infidelity tendency

is smaller than person who have high libido level.

7. Coefficient LIBIDO(2) (-0.731)

The risk of high infidelity tendency in person who have average libido level

is exp(−0.731) = 0.482 times compared to person who have high libido

level.

The risk of person who have average libido level to have high infidelity

tendency is smaller than person who have high libido level.

8. Coefficient SPIRITUAL(1) (1.939)

The risk of high infidelity tendency in person who have low spiritual level is

exp(1.939) = 6.953 times compared to person who have high spiritual level.

The risk of person who has low spiritual level to have high infidelity

tendency is smaller than person who have high spiritual level.

9. Coefficient SPIRITUAL (2) (0.810)

The risk of high infidelity tendency in person who have average spiritual

level is equal to exp(0.810) = 2.249 times compared to person who have

high spiritual level.

The risk of person who have average spiritual level to have high infidelity

tendency is smaller than person who have high spiritual level.

Discussion

Significantly factors that influence infidelity tendency is gender, financial

problem, freedom in making friend, libido level, and spriritual level. Therefore

83

those factors have to be concerned when infidelity is happened. From this

research’s result, the risk of male to have a high infidelity tendency is higher than

female but it is found now that many females do infidelity too. Maybe in the last

era, females often stayed at home and men work outside. So the opportunities for

males to make infidelity is higher compare to females. But now almost males and

females work and meet many other people at their workplace. This fact causes the

tendency of infidelity level is increased for males and females. Otherwise infidelity

can be watched easily in social media. This phenomenon is an important thing.

Possibly the different tendency of infidelity level between males and females will

be greater in the next era. Therefore the similar research must be repeated.

The risk of someone who has financial problems to have a high infidelity

tendency is smaller than people who do not have financial problems. Usually,

people who have financial problems will do anything to fulfill their needs including

sell their self. According to Eko Haryanto, criminologist University of Indonesia in

an article entitled 'When the Prostitution "Online" writhing in Jakarta' stated that

women introduced to prostitution by her boyfriend while the women are in need of

money. Maybe people who has financial problems doesn’t have high tendency to

infidelity. They do it just because they need money. Otherwise, people who doesn’t

financial problems do infidelity because they are willing to do that. Therefore it is

makes sense that the risk of someone who has financial problems to have a high

infidelity tendency is smaller than people who do not have financial problems.

The risk of person who have very low degree of freedom in making friends to

have high infidelity tendency is smaller than person who have high degree of

feedom in making friends. The risk of person who have low degree of freedom in

making friends to have high infidelity tendency is smaller than person who have

high degree of feedom in making friends. The risk of person who have average

degree of freedom in making friends to have high infidelity tendency is smaller

than person who have high degree of feedom in making friends. In other words,

higher level of freedom in making friends will cause higher infidelity tendency

level. Friends are an important factor that influence character. Good friends will

almost always guide to good character but bad friends can break the good

character. When people have high freedom level in making friends, they will have

great probabilities to have friends who practice infidelity. So it is make-sense that

people who have higher freedom in making friends will have higher tendency level

of infidelity.

The risk of person who has low libido level to have high infidelity tendency

is smaller than person who have high libido level. The risk of person who has

average libido level to have high infidelity tendency is smaller than person who

have high libido level. In other words, higher libido level causes higher infidelity

tendency level. This result is very clear, trivial and need not more explanation.

The risk of person who has low spiritual level to have high infidelity

tendency is smaller than person who have high spiritual level. The risk of person

who has average spiritual level to have high infidelity tendency is smaller than

person who have high spiritual level. In other words, lower spiritual level will

result higher infidelity tendency level. People who have high spiritual level have a

fear of God and will have willingness to obey. So they will have lower infidelity

level.

84

3. Concluding Remarks

From this research, it is the conclusion that can made:

1. To counsel client that experience infidelity, gender, financial problem,

freedom in making friends, libido level, and spriritual level must be

considered.

2. Males need to be more careful with their tendency to do infidelity but

females are not immune to infidelity too. The result of this research

shows that the infidelity tendency level of males is higher than infidelity

tendency level of females. It must be remember that the result can be

changed in the next time.

3. People who have much money will have a bigger chance to fall into

infidelity.

4. People who have high libido level must be aware with their friendships,

relationships, movies that they watch, magazines that they read and etc.

They are suggested to have many activities and often spend time to make

personal relationship with God and take a part in religious services.

Remember that high spiritual level will relate to low infidelity tendency

level.

References

[1] L.K. Anna (Ed.), 12 Penyebab Libido Rendah. (2012) Retrieved from:

http://health.kompas.com/read/2012/03/05/11283136/12.

[2] K.D. Cahya. Ketika Prostitusi Online Menggeliat di Jakarta. (2015). Retrieved

from: http://megapolitan.kompas.com/read/2015/04/17/08000011

[3] CHAID and Exhaustive CHAID. Available on:

Algorithmsftp://ftp.software.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/support/Stats/D

ocs/Statistics\/Algorithms/13.0/TREE-CHAID.pdf

[4] Duniafitnes.com. 2013. Apa yang Diinginkan Wanita dari Seks.

http://duniafitnes.com/news/apa-yang-diinginkan-wanita-dari-seks.html

(accessed on 27 June 2015).

[5] A.A. Ghifari, Gelombang Kejahatan Seks Remaja Modern, Bandung, Mujahid

Press, (2003).

[6] E.B. Hurlock, Psikologi Perkembangan, Jakarta : Erlangga, (2009).

[7] G. V. Kass, An exploratory technique for investigating large quantities of

categorical data, Applied Statistics 29 (2), p. 119-127, (1980).

[8] P.V. Larsen, Master of Applied Statistics ST111: Regression and analysis of

variance. http://statmaster.sdu.dk/maskel/docs/sample/ST111 (accessed on 10

April 2015)

[9] W. Mendenhall and T. Sincich, A Second Course In Statistics: Regression

Analysis (7th ed.), Pearson Education, Inc, (2012).

[10] G. Ritschard, CHAID and Earlier Supervised Tree Methods, (2010). Available

on: www.unige.ch/ses/metri/cahiers/2010_02.pdf

[11] M. Seligman, Authentic Happines, Mizan Pustaka, Bandung , (2005).

[12] R. E. Walpole, Introduction to Statistics (3rd ed), Prentice Hall Professional

Technical Reference, (1982).

85

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Legalization of LGBT Marriage Level

Rianti Setiadi1,a), Rosi Melati2,b)

1,2

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences,

Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia

a)

rianti@sci.ui.ac.id

b)

rosi.melati17@gmail.com

Abstract: The legalization of LGBT marriage in the United States and the approval from several

countries have more or less raised mixed reactions in other countries that have not legalized

LGBT marriage, including Indonesia. Now, in Indonesia, some people express their support for

the legalization of LGBT marriages, while some others show adverse reaction to the idea. There

are many factors affecting the different perceptions. Some of them which will be investigated in

this research are gender, social lifestyle, lifestyle, spiritual level, organization activities, reading

activities, sympathetic level and agreement of sexual orientation, knowing about sexual

orientation, knowing about legalization LGBT marriage and agreement level of legalization

LGBT marriage. This research is conducted in order to analyze which factors have significant

influence towards the different perception on the legalization of LGBT marriage. Because, the

future of Indonesia lies in the hand of the young generation, this research is conducted among the

University of Indonesia scholars as the sample for the pilot study. The sampling method adopted

Multi Stage Cluster Sampling. The primary method of analyzing is Logistic Regression Model.

Measurement instrument is a self-made and the reliability and validity have been checked already.

The result of this research is aimed to help Indonesian government to make future regulations and

decisions regarding the issue of legalization of LGBT marriage in Indonesia.

Keywords: LGBT orientation, LGBT Marriage Legalization, Multi Stages Sampling, CHAID,

Logistic Regression Model

1. Introduction

In these last several years, homosexual population seem increasing. They have more

dare to show them self as homosexual. Not only in the society, but also in University they

are not ashamed to show their identity as homosexual. According to a survey conducted by

CIA (2013) said that the number of homosexual in Indonesia are 16,625,865 people, which

means about six percent of the population of Indonesia. Some of them show themselves as

homosexual and partly still covered.

On June 26 2015, the US Supreme Court ruled that the US Constitution guarantees

the right for same-sex couples to marry in all 50 US states. Barack Obama decision to

legalized same-sex marriage made horrendous the world. Now, there are 22 countries where

same-sex marriage is legal. The Countries are Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Spain, South

Africa, Norway, Sweden, Argentina, Iceland, Portugal, Denmark, Brazil, England and

Wales, France, New Zealand, Uruguay, Luxembourg, Scotland, Finland, Ireland and US.

Suryadharma Ali has prediction that someday Indonesia will get a challenge from the

citizens who want to fight for the legalization of same-sex marriage. Maybe, it will happen

86

in the next 10 years, where the leaders at that time are the young people now. The future of

this Country is determined by the young people now, to know their tendency attitude toward

legalization of LGBT marriage and the factors that affecting agreement level of legalization

LGBT marriage.

Throughout this research, these following questions will be answered: What factors

affecting the agreement of legalization LGBT marriage, among scholars in University of

Indonesia. From this research, readers may be able to find the factors that influence

agreement level of legalization LGBT marriage from scholars in University of Indonesia.

By knowing the factors that influence agreement level of legalization LGBT marriage, we

expect that young people can be guided, so that later when they govern the country, they can

solve the challenge of the legalization LGBT marriage marriage issues wisely. The

respondents are scholars of University of Indonesia.

2. Main Results

1. Gender: Man and Woman.

2. Social lifestyle is a social style to make relation with others. This variable contains

three categories which are free, neutral and bounded by the rules.

3. Faculty

4. Lifestyle is a way of living of individual. This variable is divided into two

categories, which are conventional and modern.

5. Spiritual level is a degree to measure respondent’s relation with God that include

faith, worship, obedience, fellowship and religion’s service activities. This variable

is measured by Likert Scale and then categorized into 2 categories which are low

and high.

6. Organization activities is a variable that measure organization’s activities of the

respondent. This variable is categorized into active and passive.

7. Reading activities is variable that measure intensity of reading the respondent. The

variable is categorize into like and dislike.

8. Sympathetic level is a degree to measure respondent’s concern about someone who

is in need. This variable is measured using Likert Scale and then categorized into 2

categories which are low and high.

9. Agreement level of sexual orientation is a degree to measure respondent’s

agreement level about sexual orientation. This variable is measured using Likert

Scale and then categorized into 2 categories which are low and high.

10. Knowing about LGBT orientation is a variable that measure whether the

respondent know about LGBT orientation or not. This variable categorized into 2

categories which are “Yes” and “No”

11. Knowing about legalization LGBT marriage is a variable that measure whether

respondent know about LGBT marriage legalization or not. This variable is

categorized into 2 categories which are”Yes” and “No”.

12. Agreement level of legalization LGBT marriage is a variable that measure

respondent’s agreement level about legalization LGBT marriage. This variable is

measured using Likert Scale and then categorized into 2 categories which are agree

and disagree.

87

Methodology

Sample: 200 scholars from University of Indonesia that are chosen by multistage cluster.

Data will be analyzed by logistic regression method because the dependent variables is

categorical data. Since the predictors variables are categorical variables too, coding variables

are needed. When all variables are entered into the model, it is found that only five variables

influence the dependent variables (Agreement level of legalization LGBT marriage)

significantly. Those variables are Knowing about Sexual Orientation, Agreement Level of

Sexual Orientation, Organization Activities, Knowing about Legalization LGBT Marriage

and Spiritual Level

Parameter

Frequen coding

cy (1)

Knowing about sexual orientation No 30 1.000

Yes 158 .000

Agreement Level of Sexual Orientation Low 122 1.000

High 66 .000

Organization activities Active 152 1.000

Passive 36 .000

Knowing about legalization LGBT NO 108 1.000

marriage YES 80 .000

Spiritual Level LOW 47 1.000

HIGH 141 .000

Encoding

Original Value Internal Value

DISAGREE 0

AGREE 1

The Logistic Regression model uses five significant predictor variables is:

g(x) = 3.452 – 0.5 knowing orientation - 3.83 agree orientation + 0.165

organization activities −1.018 knowing legalization + 1.646 spiritual level

Step Chi-square df Sig.

1 1.534 6 .957

Hypothesis

H0: The model fits

H1: The model not fits

From table, it is shown that sig = 0.957 is greater than 0.10 means that the model fits.

88

TABLE 4. Classification Table

The risk of a person who agree with legalization LGBT marriage if the person

don’t know about Sexual Orientation is exp(−0.5) = 0.60653 times the risk of a

person who disagree with legalization LGBT marriage if the person do not know

about sexual orientation. Therefore the risk that a person who do not know about

Sexual Orientation to agree to legalization LGBT marriage is smaller than the risk

that a person who don’t know about Sexual Orientation to disagree to legalization

LGBT marriage.

2. Coefficient Agreement of sexual orientation (- 3.83)

The risk of a person agree with legalization LGBT marriage if the person has low

agreement level of sexual orientation is exp(−3.83) = 0.02171 times the risk person

who disagree with legalization LGBT marriage if the person has low agreement

level of sexual orientation. Therefore the risk that a person who has low level of

agreement of sexual orientation to agree legalization LGBT marriage is smaller

than the risk of person who has low agreement level of sexual orientation to

disagree legalization LGBT marriage.

3. Coefficient Organization activities (0.165)

The risk of a person agree with legalization LGBT marriage if the person active in

Organization is exp(0.165) = 1.17939 times the risk of a person who disagree

with legalization LGBT marriage if the person active in Organization. Therefore

the risk of a person who active in organization to agree legalization LGBT

marriage is greater than the risk of a person who active in Organization to disagree

legalization LGBT marriage

4. Coefficient knowing about LGBT legalization marriage (−1.01)

The risk of a person agree with legalization LGBT marriage if the person don’t

know about legalization LGBT married is exp(−1.01) = 0.36422 the risk of a

person who disagree with legalization LGBT marriage if the person don’t know

about legalization LGBT married. Therefore the risk of a person who don’t know

about legalization LGBT marriage to agree legalization LGBT marriage is smaller

than a person who don’t know about legalization LGBT married to disagree

legalization LGBT marriage.

89

5. Coefficient Spiritual Level (1.646)

The risk of a person who agree legalization LGBT marriage if the person has low

spiritual level is exp(1.646) = 5.1862 times the risk of a person who disagree

with legalization LGBT marriage if the person has low spiritual level. Therefore

the risk of a person who has low spiritual level to agree legalization LGBT

marriage is greater than the risk of a person who has low spiritual level to disagree

legalization LGBT marriage.

Discussion

From the research output above, it can be concluded that scholars who tend to agree

legalization LGBT marriage are scholars who active in organization and have low spiritual

level. People who tend to disagree of legalization LGBT marriage are people who don’t know

about orientation LGBT, have low level of orientation LGBT and don’t know about legalization

LGBT marriage issues.

Based on the results above, scholars who active in organization tend to agree to

legalization LGBT marriage. Maybe it is caused by contents of organization activities that are

conducted by scholars. Scholar who active in organization usually tend to make friendship with

many people and have openness mind to every phenomenon that happened around them. If they

have low spiritual level, it is easy for them to agree legalization LGBT marriage without

searching the purpose and the meaning of LGBT definition. They tend to agree because they

don’t have enough knowledge about their faith and easily influenced by the organization

activities like seminar, discussion and etc.

It is interesting that people who disagree legalization LGBT marriage are people who

don’t know about orientation LGBT and legalization LGBT marriage. They disagree without

knowing much about LGBT. Maybe it is caused by their spiritual level. Indonesia is still known

as religious country. That cause the scholars of Universitas Indonesia still held religious norm

which is taught by their parents or influenced by their friends and their society. So, many of

them don’t care about LGBT issues and don’t agree with legalization LGBT marriage.

3. Concluding Remarks

From this research, it is concluded that:

1. To know about agreement level of legalization LGBT marriage, the factors must be

considered are Knowing about Sexual Orientation, Agreement Level of Sexual

Orientation, Organization Activities, Knowing about Legalization LGBT Marriage

and Spiritual Level.

2. Based on the research’s result, University leader must be concerned with

organization’s activities that are conducted in the Campus. The research results that

organization activities influence significantly to agreement of legalization of LGBT

marriage. Good organization will influence the scholars to have good scholar’s

overview but otherwise bad organization will influence to bad scholar’s overview.

3. The research results that knowing about legalization LGBT marriage causes high

agreement level of legalization LGBT marriage. University leaders and scholars

should be wise to face this great homework and think a lot what they have to do.

4. The research also results that spiritual level influence agreement level of legalization

LGBT marriage. Spiritual life must be concerned build a healthy next generation who

is afraid of God.

90

References

[1] CHAID and Exhaustive CHAID Algorithmsftp:

ftp.software.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/support/Stats/Docs/Statistics/Algo

rithms/13.0/TREE-CHAID.pdf

[2] Changing Attitude on gay marriage:

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/07/29/graphics-slideshow-changing-attitudes-

on-gay-marriage/

[3] T. Clinton and M. Laaser, Sex and Relationship, Penerbit Andi, Yogyakarta,

(2010).

[4] O.G.Encarnación, Gay Rights:Why Democracy Matters, Journal of

Democracy, Vol 25, Number 3, (2014).

[5] Gay Technical Professionals, LGBT Scientist, (2014).

http://www.algbtical.org/2A%20SCIENCE.htm

[6] E. Haney, C. Heilbrun and K. Heilbrun, Lesbian and Gay Parents and

Determination of Child. Custody: The Changing Legal Landscape and

Implications for Policy and Practice, Psychology of Sexual Orientation and

Gender Diversity, Vol.1, No.1, 19 –29, (2014).

[7] T. Jacobs, Gay Men on Campus: Smart, Studious, Involved. (2009). Retrieved

from: http://www.psmag.com/books-and-culture/gay-men-on-campus-smart-

studious-involved-3662

[8] LGBT Right. https://lgbt-rights-hrw.silk.co/

[9] R. Manullang, Apa itu homoseksual.

www.academia.edu/1919853/Apa_itu_Homoseksual

[10] J. B. Mathis, Gay and Lesbian Literature in the Classroom: Can Gay Themes

Overcome Heteronormativity?, Journal of Praxis in Multicultural

Education, Volume 7, No 1, (2013).

[11] R.S. Michael, Counseling the Homosexual, Bethany House Publishers,

Minnesota, (1998).

[12] D. C. Montgomery, E. A. Peck, G. G. Vining, Introduction to Linear

Regression Analysis, 5th Edition, New York, John Wiley & Sons, (2012).

[13] G. A. Seber, Linear Regression analysis, 2nd edition, New York, John Wiley

& Sons, (2003).

[14] J. Simanjuntak, Alasan Remaja Nyoba-nyoba Hubungan Sejenis. (2011).

Retrieved from:

http://kesehatan.kompasiana.com/seksologi/2011/07/09/alasan-remaja-

nyoba-nyoba-hubungan-sejenis-379402.html

[15] Sinyo, Anakku bertanya tentang LGBT, PT Elex Media Komputindo, Jakarta

(2014). Available on:

http://library.binus.ac.id/eColls/eThesisdoc/Bab2/2012-1-00565-

PS%20bab%202.pdf

91

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Demographic Factors Among Employees in

Jakarta

Rianti Setiadi1,a), Titin Siswantining2,b), Baizura Fahma3,c), and

Astari Karamina4,d)

1,2,3,4

Department of Mathematics, Universitas Indoesia

Depok, West Java, Indonesia

a)

rianti@sci.ui.ac.id

b)

titin@sci.ui.ac.id

c)

baizura.fahma@sci.ui.ac.id

d)

astari.karamina@sci.ui.ac.id

psychology job stress is classified into Job Distress which brings a negative effect, such as

discouragement, illness, etc. and Job Eustress which encourage worker to strive, work more

creatively, etc. This research emphasizes more on Job Distress. Job Distress has four sources,

called components, that are Role of Clarity, Influence over Decision, Peer Support and Leader

Support. This difference is presumed to happen because of the demographic factors of the

employees, such as gender, age, length of work, position in job, and industry where the

employee works. This research will investigate the demographic factors that influence each

job distress components. The method used to attain this research purpose is Classification

Tree Method. Classification Tree is a part of CRT Method. CRT is a Statistical Method that

can predicts the value of a target (or dependent variable) based on the values of several input

(or independent variables). Classification Tree is used where the target variable is categorical

variables. Regression Tree is used where the target variable is continuous. The result is

written in the end of this paper. This research is conducted using purposive sample among

workers in Jakarta.

Keywords: Job Distress, Demographic Factors, Purposive Sample, Classification Tree

1. Introduction

In era of AEC (ASEAN Economic Community) the employees have to face

high competition with the other employees. By the opened greater opportunities for

employees from all countries in Southeast Asia, Indonesian employees need to

increase their performance at work. In an effort to increase their performance, they

must overcome the job stress. “Job stress” is a pressure experienced by worker in

carrying out her/his job. According to psychology, there are two types of job stress.

Firstly, job stress that give the positive effect like encourage her/his spirit to work,

work more creatively, etc. This type is called as job eustress. Secondly there is job

stress that give a negative effect like hopeless, illness, etc. This type of job stress is

called as job-distress.

Job-distress needs more attention because it will give a negative effect to the

employees, so it needs more effort to reduce it. There are four sources of job-

92

distress that experienced by employees that are called components of job-distress.

In this research, components of job-distress that will be considered are job distress

that are caused by influence of decision factor, role of clarity factor, peer’s support

factor and leader’s support factor. It is considered that the difference may be

caused by demographic factors of the employees such as gender, age, working

field, job position, and length of work. In this research, the significant demographic

factors that influence each of the component of job-distress for employees will be

determined.

The issue that can be raised in this research is: What are the significant

demographic factors that influence each component of job-distress for employees

in Jakarta? The objective of this research is to determine significant demographic

factors that influence component of job-distress for employees in Jakarta. By

knowing the significant demographic factors that influence each component of job-

distress for employees, the head of the companies and the employees themselves

can know which demographic factors that are most influence their source of their

job distress and make appropriate policies to overcome their job distress.

2. Main Results

2.1. Research Variable and Its Definition

1. Role of Clarity is the certainty of his/her job likes the purpose of the job,

explanation of responsibility, time of work, and etc. This variable is

measured by Likert Scale and then categorized into two categories which

are low and high.

2. Influence of Decision is the empowerment given to the employees in

decision making process, such us the participations of employees to decide

for new development in the company. This variable is measured by Likert

Scale and then categorized into two categories which are low and high.

3. Peer’s Support is how much support of employees’s partner in work when

he/she doing her/his job. This variable is measured by Likert Scale and

then categorized into two categories which are low and high.

4. Leader Support is how much support is given by leader in the company to

employees, such as offering help that is necessary, being a role model for

employees, awareness of leaders for employees’s need, leader’s desire of

listening to the employees and etc. This variable is measured by Likert

Scale and then categorized into two categories which are low high.

2.2. Methodology

Populations: Employees in Jakarta

Sample: 229 Employees in Jakarta that are chosen by purposive sampling

Data will be analyzed by Cluster Classification and Regression Tree (CRT)

Method. Cluster Classification and Regression Tree (CRT) or CART is

classification method which uses historical data to construct decision trees. Based

on available information about the dataset, classification tree or regression tree can

be constructed. Constructed tree can be then used for classification of new

observation [5].

93

Research variables that will be involved in this research are:

1. Gender

Gender of Employees. This variable is classified into male and female

2. Age

Age of Employees when survey was conducted. This variable is classified

into six categorics which are:

22 – 25 years old

26 – 29 years old

30 – 33 years old

34 – 37 years old

More than 37 years old

3. Working Field

Working of field of employees when survey was conducted. This variable

classified into five categories, which are:

Manufacturing

Banking

IT and Telecommunication

Market Research

Others

4. Job Position

Position of Employees in job when survey was conducted. This variable

classified into three categories, which are :

≥ Supervisor

Staff

Others

5. Length of Work

Length of work since an employees starts to work in last company until

survey was conducted. This variable classified into four categories, which

are:

Less than 3 years

3 – 5 years

5 – 8 years

More than 8 years

94

2.3. Research Output

1. CRT for Job-Distress that caused by Role of Clarity

Factor

that most influences Job-distress that is caused by Role of Clarity is Age.

Employees who has age 22-25 years 74.4% tends to have low Job-distress

otherwise, employees who has age older than 25 years is divided by Industry factor

where he/she works. Employees who works at banking or manufacturing, 82.6%

tends to have high job-distress, employees who works at IT, telecommunication,

market research and others, 50% tends to have high job-distress.

95

2. CRT for Job-Distress that caused by Influence of Decision

Decisions is Job Positions. Employees who has Position above Supervisor,70.2%

tends to have high Job-distress. Otherwise, Level of Job-distress of employees who

has position as staff and others is divided by Length of Work. Employees who has

position as staff and others and has Length of Work between 6-8 years, 65.2%

tends to have high job-distress. Employees who has position as staff and others and

has Length of Work between less than five years or more than eight years, 58.4%

tends to have low job-distress.

Length of Work. Employees who has Length of Work between 6-8 years, 65.6%

tends to have high job-distress. Otherwise, level of job-distress of employees who

has length of work between less than five years or more than eight years is divided

by Age. Employees who has length of work between less than five years or more

than eight years and has age between 22-25 years old or 30-33 years old, 53.3%

tends to have high job-distress. Employees who has Length of Work between less

than five years or more than eight years and has age between 26-29 years old or

more than 34 years old, 62.3% tends to have low job-distress.

Level of job-distress of employees who has length of work between less than

five years or more than eight years and has age between 22-25 years old or 30-33

years old is differentiated by Industry. Employees who has length of work between

less than five years or more than eight years and has age between 22-25 years old

or 30-33 years old and has industry Banking, IT & Telecommunication, or others,

58.1% tends to have high job-distress. employees who has length of work between

less than five years or more than eight years and has age between 22-25 years old

or 30-33 years old and has industry Manufacturing or Market Research, 58.8%

tends to have low job-distress.

96

Level of job-distress of employees who has length of work between less than

five years or more than eight years and has age between 26-29 years old or more

than 34 years old is differentiated by Gender. Female employees who has length of

work between less than five years or more than eight years and has age between

26-29 years old or more than 34 years old, 75.7% tends to have low job-distress.

Male employees who has length of work between less than five years or more than

eight years and has age between 26-29 years old or more than 34 years old, 50%

tends to have high job-distress.

length of work. Employees who has Length of Work between 6-8 years, 68.8%

tends to have high Job-distress. Otherwise, Level of Job-distress of employees who

has length of work less than five years or more than 8 years is divided by Age.

Employees who has length of work less than five years or more than eight years

and has age between 22-33 years old, 52.9% tends to have high job-distress.

Employees who has length of work less than three five years or more than eight

years and has age more than 34 years old, 65.9% tends to have low job-distress.

Discussion

The research results that employees who have high Role of Clarity distress

are employees who are more than 25 years old and work at banking and

manufacturing. Otherwise employees who are less than 25 years are not influenced

with Role of Clarity Distress. They are still young enough and can enjoy do their

work without knowing the clarity of what they have to do. Employees who are

more than 25 years old, are mature enough to do their work. They want to know

what they have to do and what policies behind their work. Especially employees

who work at banking and manufacturing need the clarity of their work. Without the

clarity they will be confused of what they should do daily.

Employees who have high Influence of Decision distress are employees who

have position as supervisor and higher level. It can be understood that they will be

97

distress if they, as supervisor or higher level, are not invited to make policies or

decisions. Otherwise staff employees will not feel distress if they are not invited to

make decisions or policies except they have work at their company for 6-8 years. If

they work less than 6 years, they don’t care whether they are invited to make

decisions or not. That is the same condition with employees who work more than 8

years. They don’t care because they have been accustomed with this condition.

Employees who have high Peer’s Support distress are employees who have

already worked at their company for 6-8 years. Employees who have worked less

than 6 years have low Peer’s Support distress. Maybe employees who have worked

less than 6 years are still supervised by supervisors and still be guided. So, they

don’t feel that they need peer’s support yet. But employees who have worked for

6-8 years have to decide everything by themselves. They need peer’s support to do

that. Employees who have worked more than 8 years should do their tasks

independently. So, they feel that they are not really needed peer’s support. Though

they feel that they are not really needed peer’s support, this research shows that if

they are below 33 years old and work at banking or IT & Telecommunication or

they are males and above 34 years old, they suspect to have peer’s support distress.

Employees who have high Leader’s Support distress are employees who

have worked for 6-8 years at their company. Employees that also have high

leader’s support distress are employees who have worked less than 6 years or more

than 8 years but they are still less than 33 years old. The reason that explain this

issues is the same with the reason for employees who need peer’s support. This

research also notes that females need more leader’s support compare with males.

3. Concluding Remarks

1. The demographic factors that influence Job Distress caused by Role of Clarity

are Age and Industry where the employees work

2. The demographic factors that influence Job Distress caused by Influence of

Decision are Employee Position and Length of Work

3. The Demographic factors that influence Job Distress caused by Peers Support

are Length of Work, Industry where the employee work and Gender

4. The demographic factors that influence Job Distress caused by Leaders

Support are Length of Work, Age and Gender

5. In general, the demographic factors that influence Jod Distress are Length of

Work, Age, Industry where the employees work and Gender

6. When face job-distress, employees and company leaders have to consider

which is the most component distress that influences the employees. They must

know whether the employees distress is caused by the role of clarity, influence

of decision, peer’s support or leader’s support. By knowing the sources of the

Job Distress, best policies can be made to reduce the job distress

7. To help employees who have job distress, company’s leader have consider

especially to employees’ age and length of work. By knowing that, company’s

leader can give appropriate suggestions and policies to help the distress-

employees.

98

References

Well-Being in Jakarta, Petra Christian University, (2015)

[2] T. A. Wright and R. Cropanzano, Psychological well-being and job

satisfaction as predictors of job performance, Journal of Occupational Health

Psychology, (2000)

[3] R. Pasca and S. L. Wagner, Occupational Stress in the Multicultural

Workplace, J Immigrant Minority Health, (2011)

[4] M. Bickford, Stress in the Workplace: A General Overview of the Causes, the

Effects, and the Solutions, Canadian Mental Health Association, (2005)

[5] R. Timofeev, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) Theory and

Applications, Humboldt University, (2004)

[6] R. Harrington, Stress, Healthy, and Well-Being Thriving in the 21st Century,

WADSWORTH Cengage Learning, (2013)

99

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Binomial Regression (GWBNBNR)

Ahmad Fatih Basitul Ulum1,a), Purhadi2,b),and Wahyu Wibowo3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Mathematics and Sciences,

Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, Surabaya

a)

ahmadfatih@bps.go.id

b)

purhadi@statistika.its.ac.id

c)

wahyu_w@statistika.its.ac.id

Abstract. Poisson regression is customary model for count data response. However,

the negative binomial regression is more appropriate instead of Poisson regression

when the data presence an overdispersion. Both of which are global regression which

occasionally produce a misleading result due to the spatial heterogeneity. Local

regression that so-called Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression

(GWNBR) is alternatively used for univariate count data with overdisper sion. This

paper provides the parameter estimation and testing hypothesis for parameters of

bivariate count data model namely Geographically Weighted Bivariate Negative

Binomial Regression (GWBNBR).

Keywords and phrases: bivariate count data, overdispersion, spatial heterogeneity, local

regression model.

1. Introduction

In sampling theory, if the population is homogeneous, the small sample is

enough. Whatever the methods and wherever the sample is taken from, it would

guarantee represents the population. On the contrary, if the population is

heterogeneous, we need more advance method and more number of sample in

several locations to describe the true population. In the term of regression, it is

general that it would produces the regression parameters β0,β1,...,βp regardless the

location of observations (global regression). We assume that the parameters is valid

for all locations in the population area. Consequently, if there is non-homogeneous

characteristics based on locations which so-called spatial heterogeneity, the global

regression would not appropriate to represent the population, as in the sampling

theory.

Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) that was defined by

Nakaya et al., allows the spatial modeling of count data. This model produces local

parameters which depend on location of observations, unlike the Poisson

regression which produces the same parameters for all locations. This model have a

set of parameters, β0,β1,...,βp, for each location. As the observation came from

different locations, this model has [(p + 1) × n)] amount of parameters, where p is

the number of predictors and n is the number of observations. This model,

however, have a strictly assumption as in Poisson regression, that is equity of mean

100

and variance (equidispersion). However, overdispersion is more frequent to occure.

If there is presence an overdispersion (variance larger than mean), the standard

error of parameter estimators tend to be underestimate. So, the inference would

produce a misleading results.

Negative binomial distribution as a Poisson-Gamma mixture distribution has

an ability in count data modeling with overdispersion, because it has an additional

parameter, α, known as overdispersion parameter. Poisson regression is the special

case of negative binomial regression when the dispersion parameter (α) is very

close to zero. Developing the Nakaya, et. al. works, Ricardo and Carvalho [2]

define the Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) in

order to overcome the overdispersion problem in GWPR. In bivariate count data

response, Thola [3] have developed the Geographically Weighted Bivariate

Poisson Regression (GWBPR) as an extended model of GWPR. This model,

however, has a limitation as in GWPR, that is equidispersion. If there is presence

an overdispersion, based on Ricardo and Carvalho and Famoye [4] works, this

paper intend to develop bivariate count data model as an extension of GWNBR

which handle overdispersion on GWBPR. The extension model is namely

Geographically Weighted Bivariate Negative Binomial Regression (GWBNBR).

GWBNBR has 3 groups of parameter which vary over the space, β, α, and λ.

Next, this model would applied in case study of leprosy in East of Java 2012.

2. Main Results

The estimation of parameters in this model is obtained using Maximum

Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method and using Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithm

to solve the derivation of ln-likelihood function.

2.1. Bivariate Negative Binomial Regression (BNBR)

This model is based on bivariate negative binomial (BNB) distribution. The

form of BNB based on Famoye [4] described as

1

1 yk 1 k

2

( kyk ) k k

1 1 1

k 1 ( k ) ( y k 1) k k k k

f ( y1 , y 2 , , , , , λ)

1 2 1 2

[1 λ(e y1 c1 )(e y2

c2 )] ; y1 , y 2 0,1,2,...

0; otherwise

(1)

where ck [1 k ( k 1 1

k ) ] [1 e

1

k( k

1 1

k ) ] , k is dispersion parameter of

independent. When λ > 0 the model allows positive correlation, and when λ < 0 the

model allows negative correlation. The mean and variance of the model is

E(Yk ) k , Var (Yk ) k (1 k 1 k ) .

1 y 1

( y) 1

As Gamma function, ( t ), and ( y 1) y! , equation (1) can

( 1) t 0

rewrite as

101

yk 1

2

( 1

t )( k ) y k

1 1

1 ( yk 1

)

k

( k ) ( k

k k ) k

k 1 t 0 yk !

f() y1i y2 i

[1 λ(e c1 )(e c2 )] ; y1 , y2 0,1,2,... ( 2)

0; otherwise.

Let Y1 and Y2 is random variables from bivariate negative binomial

distribution, and X1,X2,...,Xp is predictors. The bivariate negative binomial

regression (BNBR) relative Y to X is given by

(Y1i , Y2i ) ~ BNBR 1i , 2i , 1, 2 ,λ

(3)

The Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method is used to find the parameter

estimators. The likelihood function based on (2) is

n 2 yk 1

( k

1

t )( ki ) yki 1 1

L(β1 , β 2 , 1 , 2 , λ) ( k ) k

i 1 k 1 t 0 yki !

1

1 ( yki ) y1i y2 i

( k ki ) k

[1 λ(e c1 )(e c2 )] .

( 4)

, and d 1 e 1.

To maximize the likelihood function, we first solve the first derivation of

equation (3) with respect to each parameters and equalize to zero. In this case, it is

difficult to be solved analytically. So, we use the popular method to solve it with

numerical iteration, that is Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithm.

(GWBNBR)

GWBNBR is an extension model of BNBR. In GWBNBR, the parameters,

βk , k and λ is vary over the space. Let (ui,vi) is longitude and latitude coordinate

k , λ(ui , vi ) λ * and

*

ki (ui , vi ) ki . The GWBNBR relative Y to X is given by

* * * *

(Y1i , Y2i ) ~ BNB 1i , 2i , 1 , 2 , λ*

(5)

where xi [1, xi1 , xi 2 ,..., xip ]T , β*k [ k0 (ui , vi ), k1 (ui , vi ),..., kp (ui , vi )]T . The

likelihood function for GWBNBR is given by

102

yk 1 * 1 * yki

* * * * *

n 2

( ki t )( ki ) * 1 * 1

L(β , β ,

1 2 1 , 2 ,λ ) ( ki ) ki

i 1 k 1 t 0 yki !

* 1

* 1 * ( yki ki ) y1i y2 i

( ki ki ) [1 λ * (e c1* )(e c2* )] wi ,

( 6)

*

*

with ki exp( xTi β*k ) , ck* (1 d *

k

*

ki ) 1/ k

, and wij is weighting matrix. The

weighting matrix is calculated based on location by kernel function. In this paper

we use adaptive bi-square kernel function given by

[1 (di bi ) 2 ]2 ; for di bi ; i, 1,2,...,n.

wi , (7 )

0; for di bi

where dij is euclidean distance between location-i and ℓ, and bi is a bandwidth in

location-i, the radius which one location can influence to another location.

The logarithmic form of equation (6) is

*

We have 3 parameters in GWBBRg, λ * , k , and β*k . Using MLE, we do the

first derivation of (9) with respect to β*k and equalize to zero. The first derivation is

ln L(β1* , β*2 , *

1 , *

2 , λ * ) Q*

n 2 yki 1

* 1 * 1

Q* ln( k t ) yki ln( *

ki ) ln yki ! k ln( *

k )

i 1 k 1 t 0 (8)

* 1 * 1 * y1i y2 i

- ( yki k ) ln( k ki ) ln[1 λ * (e c1* )(e c2* )] wi ,

*

with ki exp( xTi β*k ) .

*

Q* n ( y1i 1i ji )x λ * (e y2i c2* ) c1*

wi 0

β1*j i 1 (1 * *

1 1i ) [1 λ * (e y1i c1* )(e y2i c2* )] β1*j

*

Q* n ( y 2i 2i ) x ji λ * (e y1i c1* ) c2*

wi 0

β2* j i 1 (1 *

2

*

2i ) [1 λ * (e y1i c1* )(e y2i c2* )] β2* j

y1i 1 * 2

Q* n

1 * 2 * * 2 * 1 *

* 1 ln 1 1 [ln( 1 1i ) 1]

* 1

1 i 1 t 0 ( 1 t)

* 2 * 1

1 ( y1i 1 ) λ * (e y2 i c2* ) c1*

wi 0

* 1 * [1 λ * (e y1i c1* )(e y2 i c2* )] *

( 1 1i ) 1

103

y2 i 1 * 2

Q* n

2 * 2 * * 2 * 1 *

* 2 ln 2 2 [ln( 2 2i ) 1]

* 1

2 i 1 t 0 ( 2 t)

* 2 * 1

2 ( y 2i 2 ) λ * (e y1i c1* ) c2*

wi 0

* 1 * [1 λ * (e y1i c1* )(e y2 i c2* )] *

( 2 2i ) 2

Q* n

(e y1i c1* )(e y2 i c2* )

wi 0

λ* i

*

1 [1 λ (e

y1i

c1* )(e y2 i

c2* )]

ck* dck* x ji *

ck* * 1 * 1 * * * * *

with ki

, * k [ k ln(1 d k ki ) d ki (1 d k ki )]ck*

βkj* (1 d k* *

ki ) k

method, such as Newton-Raphson (NR) method. The NR method can be described

as

θˆ ( r 1)

θˆ ( r ) H 1 (θˆ ( r ) )g(θˆ ( r ) ) , where

( 0) T

θˆ *

T T

β1* *

1 β*2 *

2 λ*

T

Q* Q* Q* Q* Q*

g(θˆ * ) T * T *

β1* 1 β*2 2 λ*

2

Q*

T

symmetric

β1* β1*

2 * 2

Q Q*

* *

1 β1 ( 1* ) 2

2

2 *

Q 2 *

Q Q*

H(θˆ * ) T T

β*2 β1* β 2 1*

*

β*2 β*2

2 * 2 * 2 * 2

Q Q Q Q*

* * * * * *

2 β1 2 1 2 β2 ( 2* ) 2

2 * 2

Q Q* 2 *

Q 2 *

Q 2

Q*

λ β1*

*

λ* *

1 λ β*2

*

λ * *

2 ( λ* )2

The Hessian matrix, H, contains the second partial derivative of Q* with

respect to each parameter. We not show the second derivation in here for

simplicity. Iteration would be stopped when θˆ ( r 1) θˆ ( r ) , where is very small

positive real number.

First, we perform the model significance test.

H0 : k1 (u , v ) k2 (u , v ) kj (u , v ) 0 ; j 1,2,..., p; k 1,2; 1,2,...,n.

H1 : at least one of kj (u , v ) 0.

104

We calculate the deviance statistic which denoted D 2 ln [ L( ˆ ) L( ˆ )]. L( ˆ )

calculated from equation (6) with *

exp( k*0 ) , and L( ˆ ) is equation (6) with

ki

* * *

ki exp( x

k1 i kj xi ) . D follows chi-square distribution with degrees of

D0 df0

freedom (p -1), p is number of parameter. If F ;df0 ,df1 , the model is

D1 df1

significance, where 0 and 1 symbol is describe the condition under H 0 and H 1

respectively.

Second, we do the partial test of parameters.

H0 : kj (u , v ) 0 ; j 1,2,..., p; k 1,2

H1 : at least one of kj (u , v i ) 0 .

Using the z-test, we calculate the ˆ / se( ˆ) . The standard error, se( ˆ) , obtained

from the square root of main diagonal of minus inverse of Hessian matrix at the

last iteration of NR, H (θˆ ) . If ˆ / se( ˆ) > Z , the parameter is significant.

1 (r )

2

We apply the value of deviance to compare goodness of fit of GWBNBR

with other models. Dev 2[Q* ( ˆ ) Q* ( ˆ )] , where Q* ( ˆ ) is the ln-likelihood

function of GWBNBR under the model and Q* ( ˆ ) is the ln-likelihood function of

GWBNBR where y-value replacing the in the calculation. Model with minimum

deviance indicate the better model.

References

[1] T. Nakaya, A. S. Fotheringham, C. Brunsdon, and M. Charlton,

Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression for Disease Association

Mapping, Statistics in Medicine, 24, 2695-2717, (2005)

[2] A. S. Ricardo and T. V. R. Carvalho, Geographically Weighted Negative

Binomial Regression-incorporating overdispersion, Stat. Comput., 1-15,

(2014)

[3] M. I. Thola, Penaksiran Parameter dan Pengujian Hipotesis Model

Geographically Weighted Bivariate Poisson Regression (GWBPR), Tesis,

Insitut Tekonologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, (2015)

[4] F. Famoye, On The Bivariate Negative Binomial Regeression Model,

Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(6), 968-981, (2010)

105

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

in Modeling The Number of HIV New Cases

(Case Study in East Java Province in 2013)

Sayu Made Widiari1,a), Purhadi2,b), I Nyoman Latra3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Statistics,

Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, Surabaya

a)

smade84@gmail.com

b)

purhadi@statistika.its.ac.id

c)

i_nyoman_latra@statistika.its.ac.id

Abstract. The number of HIV new cases is one of the count data which is always modeled with a

simple Poisson regression. But in many real application, the simple Poisson regression fails to

describe the data since, usually, the sample variance is larger than the sample means, known as

overdispersion, as required by the simple Poisson regression. Poisson Inverse Gaussian (PIG)

regression was introduced as one of the mixture Poisson regression allowing for overdispersion.

PIG has a nearly closed form likelihood function that its parameter estimation with maximum

likelihood estimation (MLE) and statistical hypothesis test with maximum likelihood ratio test

(MLRT) are easily to be obtained. Since then, PIG regression has been widely used in many

researches. Therefore, this paper will focus on modeling the number of HIV new cases with the

Poisson Inverse Gaussian (PIG) regression. By using backward elimination procedure, the result

of the modeling shows that percentage of population with high school education level and higher,

percentage of couple with childbearing age who use condom and ratio of health facilities per

100,000 population significantly influence the number of HIV new cases in East Java in 2013

Keywords and Phrases: Poisson Inverse Gaussian, MLE, Parameter Estimation, Statistical

Hypothesis Testing, MLRT, HIV.

1. Introduction

The development of research with count data has led to the use of

Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) to model the count data. GLM is the

generalization of the classical normal linear model, by relaxing some of its

restrictive assumptions, and provides methods for the analysis of non-normal data

[4]. Poisson regression is one of the members of GLM family which comes from

Poisson distribution. The Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution that takes on

a probability value only for nonnegative integers; this characteristic of the Poisson

distribution makes it an excellent choice for modeling count data. Poisson

distribution is specified by only one parameter μ which defines both the mean and

the variance equal μ. That the mean and variance are equal will be useful as the

assumption in Poisson regression, known as equidispersion.

But there are some situations in which the count data do not meet the

assumption of Poisson regression, where the variance is smaller than the mean,

known as underdispersion or the variance is greater than the mean, known as

106

overdispersion. But most of the count data found to be overdispersion [2]. In

practice, count data frequently depart from Poisson distribution due to the existence

of many zeros data or larger frequency of extreme observations, or both, resulting

in spread (variance) greater than the mean in the observed distribution [7]. Data

with many zeros can be caused by structural zeros or sampling zeros. Structural

zeros happen when the zeros come from unit observation which never exhibits the

event but the sampling zeros happen when those zeros happen by chance.

Overdispersion cases can cause many effect if it is ignored. It will mislead

the interpretation of the model caused by underestimation of standard error, for

example a predictor variable may appear to be significant when in fact it is not

significant [6]. There are some models which build from the mixture of Poisson

distribution with discrete or continuous distribution, known as mixture Poisson

distribution. Some of the mixed Poisson distribution have been found to be

alternative solution for overdispersion cases, but only few of them are often applied

due to its simple computation. One of the mixed Poisson distribution is Poisson

Inverse Gaussian (PIG) distribution, as the mixture of Poisson distribution and the

Inverse Gaussian distribution.

This distribution was first introduced by Holla in 1966. It is the form of

Siche distribution with two parameters. Siche distribution (SI) itself is known as

the better model than negative binomial, especially for the highly skewed to the

right count data, but it is more complicated to be applied since the probability

density function contains three parameters so the estimation is more difficult [3].

As the type of SI, PIG distribution may also flexible to handle the count data with

longer tails but only characterized by two parameters. Therefore, the likelihood

function can be easily obtained and nearly close form, which means the parameter

estimation is quite simple. Despite of this simplicity, many researches had applied

this model.

Wilmot [10] had shown the potency of modeling with Poisson Inverse

Gaussian (PIG) regression as an alternative to the negative binomial regression in

automobile insurance claim data. Six set of data were presented with many zeros

and concluded that PIG regression performed better than negative binomial

regression model. The other research which indicated PIG model was better than

negative binomial is research from Shoukri, Asyali dan Vandorp [8] with mastitis

data collected from 57 farms in Ontario, Canada.

PIG regression model can also be applied in modeling motor insurance

data and modeling in highway safety. Recently, Zha, Lord and Zou [11] had

modeled the crash data occur in Texas and Washington with PIG regression model.

Those data are right skewed with lots of zeros which indicates over dispersion. The

research lead to the conclusion that the PIG model showed better model than

negative binomial model in analyzing the crash data.

Decreasing the number HIV cases has become one of the goal of many

provinces in Indonesia. The number of HIV cases found in a year can be used as a

benchmark for the success of their government on inhibiting the spread of the HIV

virus. Increasing the quality of the health facilities and the number of health

workers is not a sufficient effort when education and others social economy factors

also influence the HIV spread. East Java Province is one of the province which is

striving to reduce the spread of HIV cases.

The number of HIV new cases in East Java Province in 2013 is likely to be

overdispersion that Poisson regression is not a fit model for it. The number of HIV

new cases found in an area can be zero when there is no HIV cases found in a year.

107

On the contrary, it can be a large value when there are many cases found in a year.

Reciprocally, the number of HIV new cases consists of many zeros and some of

them are large values in 38 regencies in East Java. Hence, this study aims to model

the number of HIV new cases in East Java in 2013 with PIG regression. The

parameter estimation is studied with the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)

and the statistical hypothesis test is applied with the maximum likelihood ratio test

(MLRT).

2. Main Results

This section is divided into five parts. Firstly, general derivation of PIG

distribution is briefly discussed. Then, the PIG regression with its parameter

estimation and its statistical hypothesis test is described in the next part. Lastly, an

application of PIG regression in the number of HIV new cases is discussed.

2.1. Poisson Inverse Gaussian Distribution

Let 𝑌 be a response variable and has a Poisson distribution with mean 𝜇.

We consider mixed Poisson regression models which had been used by Dean,

Lawless and Willmot [3] with

∞ [𝑣𝜇] 𝑦

𝑃(𝑌 = 𝑦|𝑥) = ∫ 𝑒 −𝑣𝜇 𝑔(𝑣)𝑑𝑣 , 𝑦 = 0,1, …, (2.1)

0 𝑦!

follows an Inverse Gaussian distribution,

1 −(𝑣−1)2

𝑔(𝑣) = (2𝜋𝜏𝑣 3 )−2 𝑒 2𝜏𝑣 ,𝑣 > 0 (2.2)

where 𝐸(𝑣) = 1 and the parameter 𝜏 is unknown and equal to 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑣). The

distribution of 𝑌 given 𝑥 resulting from (2.1) is then a Poisson Inverse Gaussian

(PIG) distribution with mean and variance 𝜇 and 𝜇 + 𝜏𝜇2 , respectively or it can be

written as 𝑌~𝑃𝐼𝐺(𝜇, 𝜏).

From (2.1) and (2.2) the probability density function of 𝑃𝐼𝐺(𝜇, 𝜏) can be seen as

1

𝑝(0) = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 (𝜏 −1 {1 − (1 + 2𝜏𝜇)2 })

1

𝑝(1) = 𝜇(1 + 2𝜏𝜇)−2 𝑝(0)

2𝜏𝜇 3 𝜇2 1

𝑝(𝑦) = (1 − ) 𝑝(𝑦 − 1) + − 𝑝(𝑦 − 2),

1 + 2𝜏𝜇 2𝑦 1 + 2𝜏𝜇 𝑦(𝑦 − 1)

𝑦 = 2, 3, … (2.3)

Following the generalized linear model approach, we relate the parameters

𝜇𝑖 to the covariates 𝑥𝑖 through the log-link function so that

𝑇𝜷

log 𝜇𝑖 = 𝒙𝑖 𝑇 𝜷 or 𝜇𝑖 = 𝑒 𝒙𝒊 (2.4)

108

where

𝑥 are the predictor variables and can be denoted as

𝑥𝑖 = [1 𝑥1𝑖 𝑥2𝑖 ⋯ 𝑥𝑘𝑖 ]𝑇

𝛽 are regression parameters and can be denoted as

𝛽 = [𝛽0 𝛽1 𝛽2 ⋯ 𝛽𝑘 ]𝑇

There are some ways to do the parameter estimation. Regression

parameters of PIG can be obtained through the Maximum Likelihood Estimation

(MLE) method. The following are the steps to estimate the regression parameters:

1. Determine the likelihood function based on the PIG distribution

𝑛

𝑖=1

2. Determine the log-likelihood function from the equation (2.5)

𝑛

𝑖=1

𝑝 (𝑦 +1)

𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 ) = (𝑦𝑖 + 1) 𝑖𝑝 (𝑦𝑖 ) , 𝑦 = 0,1,2, … (2.6)

𝑖 𝑖

The manipulation from (2.3) and (2.6) can be expressed as

𝑛 𝑦𝑖 −1

1

𝑙(𝛽, 𝜏) = ∑ {log ( ) + log 𝑝𝑖 (0) + 𝐼(𝑦𝑖 > 0) ∑ log 𝑡𝑖 (𝑗)} , (2.7)

𝑦𝑖 !

𝑖=1 𝑗=0

4. Then the parameters estimation can be obtained from its first derivatives

which is made equal to zero and maximize its second derivatives (infinite

negative)

𝑛

𝜕𝑙 1 𝜕𝜇𝑖

𝑢𝑟 = = ∑{𝑦𝑖 − 𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 )} ( ), 𝑟 = 1, … , 𝑘,

𝜕𝛽𝑟 𝜇𝑖 𝜕𝛽𝑟

𝑖=1

𝑛

𝜕𝑙 1 + 𝜏𝜇𝑖 1

𝑢𝑘+1 = = ∑( ) 𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 ) − (1 + 𝜏𝑦𝑖 ) 2 ,

𝜕𝜏 𝜇𝑖 𝜏

𝑖=𝑙

𝑛

−𝜕 2 𝑙 1 𝜕𝜇𝑖 𝜕𝜇𝑖

𝐼𝑟𝑠 = = ∑ {{𝑦𝑖 − 𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 )𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 + 1) + 𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 )2 } 2 ( )( )

𝜕𝛽𝑟 𝜕𝛽𝑠 𝜇𝑖 𝜕𝛽𝑟 𝜕𝛽𝑠

𝑖=1

1 𝜕 2 𝜇𝑖

+ {𝑦𝑖 − 𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 )} ( )} , 𝑟, 𝑠 = 1, … , 𝑘,

𝜇𝑖 𝜕𝛽𝑟 𝜕𝛽𝑠

𝑛

−𝜕 2 𝑙 1 + 𝜏𝜇𝑖 𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 ) 𝜕𝜇𝑖

𝐼𝑟,𝑘+1 = = ∑ ({𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 + 1) − 𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 )} − 1) ( ),

𝜕𝛽𝑟 𝜕𝜏 𝜏𝜇𝑖 𝜏𝜇𝑖 𝜕𝛽𝑟

𝑖=1

𝑟 = 1, … , 𝑘,

109

−𝜕 2 𝑙

𝐼𝑘+1,𝑘+1 =

𝜕𝜏 2

𝑛

3 + 2𝜏𝜇𝑖 2 + 𝜏𝑦𝑖

= ∑ (𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 ) −

𝜏 3 𝜇𝑖 𝜏3

𝑖=1

(1 + 𝜏𝜇𝑖 )2

− 𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 ){𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 + 1) − 𝑡𝑖 (𝑦𝑖 )})

𝜏 4 𝜇𝑖 2

5. The equations above are implicit and nonlinear equation in 𝜷, therefore the

function should be maximized by some iteration to obtain the parameter

estimation of 𝜷. The iteration model that can be used is Newton-Raphson

iteration [3]. The equation can be expressed as

̂ (𝑚+1) = 𝜽

𝜽 ̂ (𝑚) − 𝑯−1 (𝜽

̂ (𝑚) )𝒈(𝜽

̂ (𝑚) )

̂ (𝑚) is parameter estimation from 𝑚𝑡ℎ iteration and 𝒈(𝜽

𝜽 ̂ (𝑚) is the gradien

̂ (𝑚) . The initial parameter estimation use Ordinary

vector with parameters 𝜽

Least Square (OLS) method. The iteration will stop if ‖𝜽 ̂ (𝑚+1) − 𝜽

̂ (𝑚) ‖ <

𝜀, 𝜀 > 0

The statistical hypothesis about parameters in PIG regression can be

obtained by using Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (MLRT). The statistical

hypothesis in PIG regression involves the statistical test for parameters 𝛽

simultaneously and the statistical test for parameters 𝛽 and 𝜏 partially.

Simultaneous statistical test

The hypothesis is that

𝐻0 : 𝛽1 = 𝛽2 = ⋯ = 𝛽𝑘 = 0

𝐻𝑎 : at least one 𝛽𝑙 ≠ 0, with 𝑙 = 1, 2, … 𝑘

The statistical test can be obtained with the likelihood ratio statistics formed by

determining the set parameters under population (Ω), i.e. Ω = {𝛽, 𝜏} and the set

parameters under true 𝐻0 (𝜔), i.e. 𝜔 = {𝛽0 , 𝜏}. The likelihood function for

saturated model involves all predictor variables (𝐿(Ω)) is formed, while on the set

parameters under true 𝐻0 we form the likelihood function that exclude all the

predictor variables (𝐿(ω)). It can be written as follows

𝑛 𝑛

𝑖=1 𝑖=1

Both of the likelihood functions are compared in the form of devians as follows

𝐿(𝜔

̂)

𝐺 = −2 ln ( )

̂)

𝐿(Ω

The values of 𝐿(𝜔 ̂) and 𝐿(Ω̂ ) are the maximum likelihood values from

each model where 𝛽̂ and 𝜏̂ are the result from estimation in subsection 2.3. G’s

statistic is the approximation from chi-square distribution 𝜒 2 with degrees freedom

2

of 𝑣, that the testing criteria is reject 𝐻0 if 𝐺 > 𝜒(𝛼,𝑣) where 𝑣 is the degrees

110

freedom obtained by substracting the number of parameters under population by

the number of parameters under true 𝐻0 .

Partial statistical test

The hypothesis for parameter 𝛽 is that

𝐻0 : 𝛽𝑙 = 0

𝐻𝑎 : 𝛽𝑙 ≠ 0, 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑙 = 1, 2, … , 𝑘

The statistical test for testing significance of parameter 𝛽 is

𝛽̂𝑖

𝑇=

𝑆𝐸(𝛽̂𝑖 )

The testing criteria is reject 𝐻0 if |𝑇| is greater than 𝑡(𝛼) where 𝛼 is the

2

significance level. 𝑆𝐸(𝛽̂𝑖 ) is (𝑖 + 1)𝑡ℎ diagonal element in matrix 𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝛽̂ ) and

𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝛽̂ ) = −𝐸(𝐻 −1 (𝛽̂ )). The same hypothesis and statistical test are also applied

in partial hypothesis test for 𝜏.

2.5. Example

This subsection describes dataset used to analyze the performance of PIG

regression. Dataset was collected from the East Java Province Public Health

Service Office and East Java Statistics Office about the number of new HIV cases

found in East Java province in 2013. The dataset is right skewed with lots of zeros.

The description of the data are shown in table 1 below.

TABLE 1. The description of the data

Variable Description

Y The number of new HIV cases

X1 Percentage of poor people

X2 Percentage of population with high school education level and

higher

X3 Percentage of couple with childbearing age who use condom

X4 Ratio of health workers per 100,000 population

X5 Ratio of health facilities per 100,000 population

X6 Percentage of urban areas

X7 Percentage of population in age group 25-34 years old

The dataset included 38 unit observations with skewness 3.675 and among

the observations 44.7 percent of them reported zero events. As a rule of thumb, the

distribution is considered highly skewed when the absolute value of skewness is

larger than one (Zha, Lord and Zou, 2014). The overdispersion test which tests the

null hypothesis of equidispersion in Poisson GLMs against the alternative of

overdispersion also showed that there is evidence of overdispersion in the data

since the p-value is smaller than 𝛼 = 0.1 meaning reject the null hypothesis. The

summary statistics for the dataset are displayed in table 2 below.

111

TABLE 2. Summary Statistics of the Variables of the Dataset

Variables Minimum Maximum Mean Standard Deviation

Y 0 1,278 122.66 231.642

X1 4.75 26.97 12.7208 5.20279

X2 7.22 56.01 25.7379 12.71099

X3 0.34 7.06 1.8374 1.38053

X4 4.66 150.26 29.5366 34.32929

X5 0.52 15.37 3.9487 3.04548

X6 8.99 100.00 43.2424 31.53698

X7 13.69 19.71 15.9105 1.27722

Variables VIF

X1 2.711

X2 8.453

X3 3.665

X4 5.810

X5 1.655

X6 6.682

X7 1.971

sure that there is no two or more of the predictors in a regression model are

moderately or highly correlated. As shown in the table 3, the VIF of each predictor

variable is smaller than 10 which indicate that there is no multicollinearity between

the predictor variables and modeling with PIG can be continued.

The model establishment in this study is implemented with the backward

elimination procedure which aims to obtain the fit model based on its Akaike

Information Criterion (AIC).

TABLE 4. Backward Elimination in PIG Regression

Model Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)

Y~X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6 , X7 373.76

Y~X1, X2, X3, X5, X6,, X7 371.76

Y~X1, X2, X3, X5, X6 369.76

Y~X2, X3, X5, X6 368.61

It is shown clearly in table 4 that deleting some predictors in the model has

decreased the AIC. Dropping X1, X4, and X7 has led to a new model with the

lowest AIC. The last model is the best model because dropping the variables in the

last model would not give the lower AIC.

112

TABLE 5. Parameter Estimation PIG Regression in the Number of HIV New

Cases in East Java in 2013

Parameter Estimate Standard Error T-value

𝛽0 0.45489 1.67569 0.271

𝛽2 0.18876 0.06724 2.807*

𝛽3 -1.82232 0.66707 -2.732*

𝛽5 0.35167 0.18790 1.872*

𝛽6 0.02792 0.01872 1.491

*significant in 𝛼=0.1

Based on the T-value in table 5, there are three predictor variables which

significantly affect the number of HIV new cases. Those are percentage of

population with high school education level and higher, percentage of couple with

childbearing age who use condom and ratio of health facilities per 100,000

population. The model based on parameter estimation in table 5 is

𝜇̂ = exp(0.45489 + 0.18876𝑋2 − 1.82232𝑋3 + 0.35167𝑋5 + 0.02792𝑋6

The percentage of population with high school education level and higher

positively associated with the number of new HIV cases. More spesifically, one

percent increase in percentage of population with high school education level and

higher for instance can result in exp(0.18876) = 1.20751 times increasing of prior

average of the HIV new cases frequency. This is reasonable since the HIV cases

mostly happen in the high level lifestyle in which most people on it are people with

high level education. Similar analysis also occur in variable ratio of health facilities

per 100,000 population and percentage of urban areas. One percent increase in

ratio of health facilities per 100,000 population for instance can result in

exp(0.35167) = 1.421439 times increasing of prior average of the HIV new cases

frequency. One percent increase in percentage of urban areas for instance can

result in exp(0.02792) = 1.028313 times increasing of prior average of the HIV

new cases frequency. On the contrary, one percent increase in percentage of couple

with childbearing age who use condom for instance can result in exp(-1.82232) =

0.16165 times decreasing of prior average of the HIV new cases frequency.

3. Concluding Remarks

Considering its easiness of computation of parameter estimation with MLE

and statistical hypothesis test with MLRT, PIG regression turns out to be a

potential alternative in modeling the count data with overdispersion. Using the

backward elimination procedure, it is concluded that the best model is the model

which involves percentage of population with high school education level and

higher, percentage of couple with childbearing age who use condom, ratio of health

facilities per 100,000 population and percentage of urban areas as the predictor

variables.

113

References

[1] Statistics of East Java, The 2013 National Social and Economy Survey

Result , Surabaya: Statistics of East Java, (2013)

[2] P.C. Consul and F. Famoye, Generalized Poisson Regression Model,

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods. Vol. 21, No. 1, pp 89-

109, (1992)

[3] C. Dean, J. F. Lawless, and G.E. Willmot, A Mixed Poisson-Inverse-

Gaussian Regression Model, The Canadian Journal of Statistics. Vol. 17,

No. 2, pp 171-181, (1989)

[4] P. De Jong and G.Z. Heller, Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Data,

1st edition, Cambridge University, Press., New York, (2008)

[5] East Java Province Public Health Service Office, Health Profile of East Java

Province in 2013, Surabaya : East Java Province Public Health Service

Office, (2014)

[6] J.M Hilbe, Negative Binomial Regression, 1st edition, Cambridge

University, Press., New York, (2007)

[7] M.C. Hu, M. Pavlicova, and E.V. Nunes, Zero-Inflated and Hurdle Models

of Count Data with Extra Zeros: Examples from an HIV-Risk Reduction

Intervention Trial, The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse. Vol.

37, pp 367-375, (2011)

[8] M.M. Shoukri, M.H. Asyali, R. Vandorp, and R. Kelton, The Poisson

Inverse Gaussian Regression Model in the Analysis of Clustered Counts

Data, Journal of Data Science. Vol. 2, No. 2, pp 17-32, (2004)

[9] M. Stasinopoulus and B. Rigby, Generalized Additive Models for Location

Scale and Shape, Journal of Statistical Software. Vol. 23, pp 1-46, (2007)

[10] G.E. Willmot, The Poisson-Inverse Gaussian Distribution as An

Alternative to the Negative Binomial, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal.

Vol. 3, No. 4, pp 113-127, (1987)

[11] L. Zha, D. Lord, and Y. Zou, The Poisson Inverse Gaussian (PIG)

Generalized Linear Regression Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crash

Data, Journal of Transportation Safety and Security.

DOI:10.1080/19439962.2014.977502, (2014)

114

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Poverty (A Case Study: Poverty Modelling in

Pati Regency)

Duto Sulistiyono1,a), Ismaini Zain2,b), and Sutikno3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Statistics, FMIPA, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Jl. Arief Rahman Hakim, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia

a) duto.sulistiyono@bps.go.id

b) ismaini_z@statistika.its.ac.id

c) sutikno@statistika.its.ac.id

Abstract. Poverty issues require special attention from government, especially local

government. Since decentralization, local governments were given authority to decide policy

including the poverty alleviation in their regions. It is necessary for local government to have

poverty data in small area (village level). However, poverty data which were required by local

governments could not be presented to small area. Therefore, an accurate model is needed for

modelling poverty to small area. This study uses a spatial regression model that considers a spatial

aspect to solve the problem. Spatial weighting used in this study was customized contiguity with

main business field approach in every village. The aim of this study is to get the best model for

village level poverty in Pati Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The result showed that there was a

spatial lag autocorrelation ( ) on poverty. Thus, the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model was

fitted in modelling. The result of SAR model obtained 7 predictor variables that significantly

affected to village level poverty. Three variables are characteristic of individuals and households

while four variables are characteristic of regions. Thus, SAR model fits for modelling village

level poverty in Pati Regency.

Keywords: poverty, spatial analysis, spatial autoregressive model, spatial regression.

1. Introduction

Poverty issues require special attention from government, especially local

governments. Since decentralization, local governments were given authority to

decide policy for their regions including poverty alleviation [14]. Poverty

alleviation policies taken should focus on village level [6]. As a basis for making

poverty elevation policy at village level, local governments need poverty data

down to village level.

SEDAC [11] states that study on poverty in a small area has been

implemented in 35 countries in the world during the period of 1991-2002. Several

studies of poverty in a small area has been done by [10] and [13]. Furthermore,

study that includes spatial effects in model has been done by [9].

This study was done by using a spatial regression analysis. A spatial

regression would use customized contiguity as weight matrix. The aim of study,

i.e., to get the best spatial model for village level poverty in Pati Regency and to

determine variables that affect it.

115

Spatial Effect Identification. Moran’s I coefficient (I) and Lagrange Multiplier

(LM) is used to test spatial dependence or autocorrelation between observations or

location. Spatial effect identification for spatial heterogenity use Breusch-Pagan

(BP) test [1], [8], and [7]. Null hypothesis of BP test, i.e., H0 : σ12 = σ22 = ... = σn2 =

σ2 (homoscedasticity). Formula of hypothesis test is Eq. (1).

BP ( 12 ) f T Z(ZT Z) 1 ZT f χ 2 ( p) (1)

ei represents least square residual for i-th observations. Z represents vector matrix

which normal standardized for each observation (n × (p+1)). If BP > 2, reject H0.

Moran’s I test based on least square residual. Null hypothesis of Moran’s I test, i.e.,

H0 : I = 0 (no spatial autocorrelation).

Formula of hypothesis test is Eq. (2).

I I0

Z

var I

(2)

n n

wij X i X Xk X

n 1 n2 S1 nS2 3S02

I i 1 k 1

n

;E I I0 ; var I [E ( I )]2

S0

Xi X

2 n 1 n2 1 S02

i 1

Var (I) is the variance and E (I) is expected value of Moran’s I. Reject H0 and there

is a spatial autocorrelation if |Z|>Zα/2. Value of Moran’s I is between -1 and 1.

Value I>I0 shows positive autocorrelation and I<I0 shows negative autocorrelation.

LM test obtained based on model assumption under H0. There are 3 null hypothesis

used, i.e., H0 : ρ = 0 for Spatial Autoregressive model (SAR), H0 : λ = 0 for

Spatial Error model (SEM), and H0 : ρ, λ = 0 for Spatial Autoregressive

Moving Average model (SARMA). Formula of hypothesis test is shown in Eq.

(3).

(m)

(3)

where: m = total spatial parameter (SAR = 1, SEM = 1, SARMA = 2). Ry =

eTW1y/σ2; Re = eTW2e / σ2; M = I – X(XTX)-1XT; Tf,g = tr{WfWg + WfTWg}, D = σ-

2

(W1Xβ)TM(W1Xβ); E = (D + T11)T22 – (T12)2, and f,g = 1,2.

e represents least square residual for observations. If spatial weight matrix W2 = W

so T11=T12=T22=T=tr{(WT + W)W}. If LM > 2, we reject H0.

Spatial Regression Models. Spatial regression models were developed by Anselin

[1] uses spatial cross sectional data. General model of spatial regression is shown

in Eq. (4) and (5).

Y W1Y X u (4)

2

where: u = W2 u ~ N 0, I (5)

116

Y represents vector of response variable (n×1). X represents matrix of predictor

variable (n×(p+1)). represents vector of regression coefficient parameter

((p+1)×1). represents spatial lag coefficient parameter on response variable. W1

and W2 represents weight matrix (n×n). represents spatial lag coefficient

parameter on error u. u represents vector of error (n×1) in Eq. (4). represents

vector of error (n×1) in Eq. (5). I represents identity matrix (n×n). n represents

number of observations or locations (i = 1, 2, 3, …, n) and p represents number of

predictor variable (p = 1, 2, 3, .., l).

If ρ = 0 and λ = 0, Eq. (4) would be Ordinary Least Square model (OLS),

Y = X + . This model without spatial spatial effect. If X = 0 and W2 = 0, Eq. (4)

would be first order spatial autoregressive model, Y = W1Y + . This model

represents variance on Y as linear combination of variance among neighboring

locations without predictor variable. If W2 = 0 or λ = 0, Eq. (4) would be Spatial

1 1

Autoregressive model (SAR), Y =(I - W) X +(I - W) + . This model

assumed that autoregressive process on response variable. If W1 = 0 or ρ = 0,

Eq.(4) would be Spatial Error model (SEM), Y = X + u, u = W2u + . It

represents structure spatial λW2 on spatially dependent error (ε). Furthermore, if

W1, W2 ≠ 0, λ ≠ 0, or ρ ≠ 0, Eq. (4) would be Y = W1Y + X + u, u = W2u +

that called as Spatial Autoregressive Moving Average (SARMA).

Estimator for spatial lag coefficient ( ˆ ), i.e., 𝜌̂ = (YTWTWY)-1YTWTY. For

significance test of spatial lag coefficient ( ) is used Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT)

[2]. Null hypothesis of LRT, i.e., H0 : ρ = 0 (no spatial lag dependency).

1 T 1 T

LRT { 2ln I W 2

I W y-X I+ W y-X 2

y-X y-X }

W1)Y = X + . By using square spatial weight matrix, i.e., = (I – W1)T(I –

W1). Thus, estimator, i.e., = (XT X)-1XT (I – W2)Y.

Spatial Weight Matrix. Spatial weight matrix (W) was calculated by distance or

contiguity among region to another [8]. Based on geographic contiguity, the types

of contiguity, e.g., Linear Contiguity, Rook Contiguity, Bishop Contiguity, Double

Linear Contiguity, Double Rook Contiguity, and Queen Contiguity [7]. In a spatial

regression modelling, if a region has an asymmetrical shape, e.g., an administrative

area, hence fit method that used are rook and queen contiguity and would generate

same weight matrix [15]. This weight matrix could not be used for this study

because there are villages that do not contiguous with the others. Thus, the

parameter estimators could not be obtained because inverse matrix of spatial

weight matrix could not be calculated.

Spatial weight matrix (W) is not only caused by geographic contiguity but

also nongeographic contiguity. This contiguity should be a direct relation to a

117

theoretical conceptualization of the structure of dependency. The contiguity also

should relate to a spatial interaction theory. In addition, the contiguity should be

based on the trade relationships maintained between regions or socioeconomic

characteristics [1]. The contiguity is called customized contiguity. Thus, this study

would use customized contiguity for a spatial weight. The used approach is

similarity of main business field in each village. This weight matrix defines w ij=1

to entities that have similarity business field with concern location, wij=0 for

others.

month does not enough to require minimum standard living. Minimum standard

living represented by poverty lines [3]. There are several criteria for poverty

measure that have been widely accepted by development economists, i.e.,

anonymity, independence of population, monotonicity, and distributional

sensitivity [12]. The indicator that used to measure poverty is Head Count Index

(HCI) [5]. The indicator shows percentage of people living below poverty line. The

characteristics of individuals and households that affected poverty were classified

into three aspect, i.e., demographic, economic, and social [4].

Materials. This study used data from BPS that are SUSENAS 2013, PODES 2011,

and SP 2010. SUSENAS 2013 is used to obtain direct estimate of percentage of

poverty as response variable. PODES 2011 and SP 2010 are used to obtain

characteristics of individuals, households, and, regions as a predictor variables. The

variables used are presented in Table 1. The study area is Pati Regency, Central

Java which consists of 21 subdistricts and 406 villages.

Modelling analysis stages, as follow.

a. Exploring data to see characteristics of poverty generally and identification of

correlation variables that affect poverty.

b. Determining spatial weight matrix (W).

c. Identifying of spatial effects that would be used to see significant parameters

on results of Moran's I and BP test.

d. Testing significance of spatial lag coefficient ( ) and spatial error coefficient

( ) by LM test.

e. Using Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) modelling and test of residual assumption.

118

TABLE 1. Predictor Variables

Code Variables Unit

X1 Average number of household members Peoples

X2 Dependency ratio -

X3 Percentage of male household head Percent

X4 Percentage of working people Percent

X5 Percentage of education household head >= SMP Percent

X6 Average of floor area per capita M2

X7 Percentage of household with largest floor instead of land Percent

X8 Percentage of household that cook with electricity/ gas Percent

Characteristics of Regions

Z1 Distance village to central regency KM

Z2 Ratio of educational facilities per 100 people -

Z3 Ratio of health facilities per 100 people -

Z4 Ratio of health workers per 100 people -

Z5 Percentage of farm families Percent

Z6 Percentage of Jamkesmas recipient -

Z7 Ratio of establishments per 100 people -

2. Main Results

Descriptive. SUSENAS 2013 notes that average percentage of village level

poverty in Pati Regency are 29.03%. Average of household member are 3.42

people that mean average household in Pati Regency contain three people. Kudur is

a village with smallest percentage of male household head (63.62%). The smallest

percentage of education household head>=SMP in Tompegunung (6.30%). Village

with smallest percentage of households cook with electricity/ gas is Kletek

(2.54%).

Sirahan is a village with the longest distance to central regency to 44

kilometers. Kajen is a village with the largest ratio of educational facilities per 100

peoples to 0.99. Furthermore, village with largest ratio of health facilities per 100

peoples is Tayu Wetan to 0.49. For average percentage of farm families to 53.11%

mean more than half of families in Pati Regency are rely on agricultural sector as a

main source of family economy. Furthermore, average ratio of establishments per

100 peoples to 2.12 mean that there are two places of establishments among 100

peoples in Pati Regency.

119

Correlation. Pearson correlation value with = 5% can be seen that the largest

correlation to percentage of poverty is percentage of households with the largest

floor instead of land to 46.2% and negatively correlated. Smallest correlation is

ratio of establishments per 100 peoples to 10.5% and positively correlated.

homogeneous residual variance. Furthermore, based on the result there is a spatial

dependency on village level poverty. P-value Moran’s I of 0.0405, with = 10%

could be concluded that there was a spatial pattern and similar characteristics.

P-value of LM lag is 0.2338. By using α = 25%, it could be concluded that

there is lag spatial dependencies so it could continue to SAR modelling. P-value of

LM (error) is 0.3732. By using α = 25% could be concluded that there was no

spatial dependencies of error. According to analysis carried out that there are no

dependencies spatial error, it could be ascertained that there is not combine spatial

dependencies.

Statistic Test Value P-Value

Breusch-Pagan 5.8089 0.5622

Moran’s I 2.0487 0.0405*

LM (lag) 1.4173 0.2338**

LM (error) 0.7930 0.3732

LM (SARMA) 1.4261 0.4902

Spatial Autoregressive Model. There are seven predictor variables and spatial lag

( ) that significantly affect to village level poverty variables in Pati Regency.

Three variables are characteristic of individuals and households while four

variables are characteristic of regions, i.e., percentage of male household head (X3),

percentage of education household head >= SMP (X5), percentage of household

that cook with electricity/ gas (X8), distance village to central Regency (Z1), ratio

of educational facilities per 100 peoples (Z2), ratio of health facilities per 100

peoples (Z3), percentage of Jamkesmas recipient (Z6). The conclusion is obtained

by looking at p-value of parameters model.

Rho ( ) coefficient value to 0.2254 indicates that in event of an increase in

percentage of poverty 1% in village that similar characteristics would increase

percentage of poverty in observation village to 0.2254%. Coefficient of

determination (R2) describes variation in variable of village level poverty could be

explained by model. SAR model has R2 of 39.23% indicating that the model is able

to explain variation of village level poverty of 39.23% and 60.77% is explained by

other variables outside model.

120

TABLE 3. Parameter Estimation of SAR Model

Variable Estimation SE z-value p-value

Constant 134.5194 32.08991 4.1919 0.0000*

X3 -0.9904 0.3688 -2.6855 0.0072*

X5 -0.1896 0.1839 -1.0311 0.3025***

X8 -0.1316 0.0904 -1.4543 0.1459**

Z1 0.4159 0.2173 1.9139 0.0556*

Z2 -32.7653 15.2866 -2.1434 0.0321*

Z3 -51.67 25.8803 -1.9965 0.0459*

Z6 -0.2524 0.1629 -1.5496 0.1212**

Rho ( ) 0.2254 0.2128 1.0594 0.2894***

R2 (%) 39.23

(*) sign. at = 10%, (**) sign. at = 15%, and (***) sign. at = 30%.

n

Yˆi 0, 2254 Wij Y j 134,5194 0.9904 X 3i 0,1896 X 5i 0,1316 X 8i

j 1, i j

Model shows that if percentage of male household head increased 1% would

reduce percentage of village level poverty to 0.9904%. If Percentage of education

household head >= SMP increase 1%, percentage of village level poverty would be

reduced to 0.1896%. If percentage of household that cook with electricity/ gas

increased 1% would reduce percentage village level poverty to 0.1316%.

Interpretation by assuming other variables constant. Similarly, interpretation for

other predictor variables.

Identical assuming test for SAR model shown there is no predictor variables

that significantly affect absolute residuals. ACF plot for residual shows that there is

no residual lag significant. Normality test shows AD value at 0.289 and p-value

0.605. Therefore, it could be concluded that residual SAR model require

assumption of residual IIDN (1,0).

Based on these results, we can conclude that SAR model is suitable for

village level poverty modelling in Pati Regency and to determine variables that

affect it.

3. Concluding Remarks

Percentage of village level poverty in Pati Regency has spatial effect. It is

shown from Moran’s I and SAR modelling for village level poverty and variables

that affect it. SAR model could be seen that lag in response variables have

significant affect.

121

There are seven predictor variables that significantly influence percentage

of village level poverty. Only variable distance from village to central Regency has

positive affect. Meanwhile, six predictor variables have negative affect. Thus, SAR

model fit for modelling of village level poverty in Pati Regency.

Ratio of educational and health facilities have a negative effect on village

level poverty. Therefore, local government could take relevant policies related to

education and health facilities. R2 for SAR model is not relative large. That might

be caused by the value of response variable obtained by direct estimation from

SUSENAS. As we know, SUSENAS is applied for regency estimation level.

Finally, to estimate in small area, it is suggested to use Small Area Estimation

(SAE) methods.

References

[1] L. Anselin, Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, Kluwer Academis

Publishers, Boston, (1992)

[2] G. Arbia, Spatial Econometrics: Statistical Foundations and Applications to

Regional Convergence, Springer, Berlin, (2006)

[3] BPS & World Bank Institute, Dasar-Dasar Analisis Kemiskinan, BPS,

Jakarta, (2002)

[4] I.S. Chaudhry, S. Malik, and A. Hassan, The Impact of Socioeconomic and

Demographic Variables on Poverty: A Village Study Explaning, The

Lahore Journal of Economics, 14, 39-68, (2009)

[5] J. Foster, J. Greer, and E. Thorbecke, A Class of Decomposable Poverty

Measures, Econometrica, 52, 761-66, (1984)

[6] IFAD, Rural Poverty Report, The International Fund for Agricultural

Development (IFAD), Rome, (2011)

[7] J.P. Lesage, The Theory and Practice of Spatial Econometrics, University of

Toledo, Toledo, (1998)

[8] J.P. LeSage and R.K. Pace, Introduction to Spatial Econometrics, CRC Press,

New York, (2009)

[9] D. Matualage, Metode Prediksi Tak Bias Linier Terbaik Empiris Spasial

pada Area Terkecil untuk Pendugaan Pengeluaran Per Kapita, Tesis, IPB,

Bogor, (2012)

[10] A. Nuraeni, Feed-Forward Neural Network untuk Small Area Estimation

pada Kasus Kemiskinan, Tesis, ITS, Surabaya, (2009)

[11] SEDAC, Poverty Mapping Project: Small Area Estimation of Poverty and

Inequality, Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC),

Columbia University. Retrieved May 13, 2015, from

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ data/set/povmap-small-area-estimates-

poverty-inequality/data-download, (2005)

[12] M.P. Todaro and S.C. Smith, Economic Development Eighth Edition,

Pearson Education, Ltd., United Kingdom, (2003)

122

[13] A. Ubaidillah, Small Area Estimation dengan Pendekatan Hierarchical

Bayesian Neural Network, Tesis, ITS, Surabaya, (2014)

[14] Government of Indonesia, Undang-Undang Nomor 32 Tahun 2004 tentang

Pemerintahan Daerah, State Secretariat, Jakarta, (2004)

[15] D. Winarno, Analisis Kematian Bayi di Jawa Timur dengan Pendekatan

Model Regresi Spasial, Tesis, ITS, Surabaya, (2009)

123

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Regression Linear Spline Trucated in

Nonparametric Regression

Ali Akbar Sanjaya1,a), I Nyoman Budiantara2,b), and Bambang

Widjanarko Otok 3,c)

1

Statistics Department

Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya

a)

dimasganteng2011@gmail.com

b)

i_nyoman_b@statistika.its.ac.id

c)

dr.otok.bw@gmail.com

Abstract. The relationship of respond variable with some predictor variables is not always using

only single approach such as spline, kernel or Fourier series. In the regression model allows the

response variable to follow different nonparametric regression curve between the predictor

variables and other predictor variables. Data given in pairs ( x1i , .. xqi , ti , yi ) the relationship

between the predictor variables x1i , .. xqi , ti , and the response variable yi follow additive

q

nonparametric regression model: yi x1i ,..., xqi , ti i

f x pi g ti i .

p 1

Predictor component, x1i .. xqi, approached using Spline Functions linear predictor component

while ti approached by the kernel function. This research was conducted with the purpose of

seeking estimator truncated form of linear spline and kernel to estimate the nonparametric

regression curve. Estimator models obtained using Ordinary Least Square method (OLS). The

and ˆ ( x, t ) ( A( , ) D( )) y . Kernel Estimator mixture and multivariable

,

regression Spline rely heavily on points knots and bandwidth. Kernel mixed Estimator and

multivariable regression Spline is the finest in determining point’s knots and optimal bandwidth.

Keywords and Phrases: Nonparametric regression, Spline, Mixed Estimator, Kernel

1. Introduction

Regression analysis is a statistical technique to model and investigate the

relationship between two or more variables. If the regression curve shape is known,

it is called a parametric regression model assumed and if this is true, then the

parametric regression approach is very efficient, but if not, lead to a misleading

interpretation of the data [1]. If there is no any information about the shape of the

curve f ( xi ) , the approach used is nonparametric regression. Because this

approach does not depend on the assumption of a certain curve shape, thus

124

providing greater flexibility. In this case f ( xi ) assumed to be contained within the

specific function [2].

Some research on kernel estimators have been made by many researchers as

[3], [4]. Spline [5], [2], [6], [7]. Local polynomial [8], [9]. Wavelet [10]. Fourier

series [11]. Nonparametric regression approach that is widely used is spline

truncated. Spline truncated polynomials are pieces that have segmented and

continuous nature. One of the advantages of this model is truncated spline to seek

its own estimates of the data pattern of data wherever it moves. This excess occurs

due to the truncated spline points are knots, which is the point of fusion joint that

showed the change of behavior patterns of data [2], [12].

Kernel estimator has the advantage that a flexible, easy mathematical form

and can achieve a relatively quick convergence level. Kernel approach depends on

bandwidth parameter, which serves to control the smoothness of the curve

estimation. Selection of appropriate bandwidth is very important in kernel

regression [13]. Bandwidth that is too large will produce a very smooth curve

estimation and headed to the average of the response variable, otherwise if the

bandwidth is too small will produce estimates that are less smooth curve that is

estimated to be headed to the data.

According Budiantara, et al. [14], the nonparametric regression models and

the semiparametric models developed by the researchers before, if explored more

deeply, basically there is a very heavy and underlying assumptions the model. Each

predictor in nonparametric regression multi predictor considered to have the same

pattern that researchers are forced to use only one form estimator model for each

predictor variable. Therefore, use only one form of the estimator only in different

patterns of relationship of different data will certainly lead estimator produced less

suited to the pattern data. As a result, the estimated regression model becomes less

precise and produces a large error. Therefore, to overcome these problems some

researchers have developed an estimator mixture in which each data pattern in the

mixture estimator approached with the appropriate estimator. Estimator is expected

to be a mix of the right estimator capable of estimating data patterns well. Some

researchers have ever developed such a mixture estimator is [14] who developed

The combination spline estimator truncated and kernel. In addition Sudiarsa, et al.

[15] combines estimator spline truncated and Fourier series in multivariable

nonparametric regression curve.

This study will carry out a study on a mixture of kernel estimators and

truncated linear spline nonparametric regression multivariable model. At the

mixture estimator assumed some predictor variable number q follow the spline

truncated linear function and a predictor variable follow the kernel function.

2. Main Results

Data given in pairs in ( x1i , , xqi , ti , yi ) which the relationship of these

variables are assumed to follow the nonparametric regression model:

yi xi , ti i

(1)

′

where 𝑖 = 1,2, . . . , 𝑛 dan 𝑥̃𝑖 = (𝑥1𝑖 , 𝑥2𝑖 , … , 𝑥𝑞𝑖 ) . Shape of the curve 𝜇(𝑥̃𝑖 , 𝑡𝑖 ) in

equation (1) assumed to be unknown, and known only to the smooth curve in the

sense of continuous and differentiable. Random error 𝜀𝑖 identical, independent and

follow a normal distribution with 𝐸(𝜀𝑖 ) = 0 dan 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝜀𝑖2 ) = 𝜎 2 . Besides the

regression curve 𝜇(𝑥̃𝑖 , 𝑡𝑖 ) assumed to be additive that can be written in the form:

125

q

( xi , ti ) f p x pi g ti (2)

p 1

With 𝑓𝑝 (𝑥𝑝𝑖 ) and g(𝑡𝑖 ) are smooth functions. The main objective in

nonparametric regression curve estimator mixture is getting shape estimation

regression curve 𝜇(𝑥̃𝑖 , t 𝑖 ), namely :

q

ˆ ,

( xi , ti ) fˆp ( , )

xi , ti gˆ ti . (3)

p 1

with knots points 𝜆 = (𝜆1 , 𝜆2 , … , 𝜆𝑟 )′ and the components of the curve g(𝑡𝑖 ) is

assumed to follow the kernel function. To obtain a mixture estimator of 𝜇(𝑥̃𝑖 , t 𝑖 ),

assumed truncated spline curve is :

m r

m

f ( xi ) j

xi

j

j

xi j

(4)

j 0 j 1

With:

m

m xi , xi r

xi r

r

0 , xi r

estimation of regression curve kernel presented as:

1

n

K t ti 1

n

gˆ t n n

yi n W i t yi (5)

1

i 1

n K t tj i 1

j 1

where :

K t ti 1 t ti

Wi t n

;K t ti K

1

n K t tj

j 1

Estimator regression curve (5) is dependent variable upon kernel function 𝐾α and

bandwidth parameter α. Kernel function 𝐾𝛼 can be either a uniform kernel, kernel

triangle, epanechnikov kernel, kernel squares, triweight kernel, kernel cosine or

Gaussian kernel.

Mixed estimator nonparametric regression curve (3) will be obtained by kernel

estimator (5) and spline function truncated (4) with a linear polynomial

components (m =1).

ˆ ( x, t ) ˆ

,

f , ( x, t ) gˆ (t )

Lemma 1. If spline truncated curve 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) multivariable give by equation (4) where

in polynomial component is linier (𝑝 = 1), than :

q

f p ( x pi ) X0 X1 1 1

X2 2 2

Xq q q

(6)

p 1

126

which vector 𝑓̃𝑝 (𝑥𝑝𝑖 ), 𝜃̃, 𝜙̃1 , 𝜙̃2 ,…, 𝜙̃𝑝 and matrix X(λ̃1 ) , X(𝜆̃2 ),…, X(𝜆̃𝑃 ) given

by :

f p1 1 x11 xq1 0

11 12 1q

f p2 1 x12 xq 2 11

f p ( x pi ) , X0 , , 1

, 2

, q

11 12 1q

f pn 1 x1n xqn 1q

x11 11

x11 r1

x11 12

x11 r2

X1 1

, X2 2

x1n 11

x1n r1

x1n 12

x1n r2

xq1 1q

xq1 rq

Xq q

xqn 1q

xqn rq

vector 𝜙̃2 of size 𝑟 × 1 , vector 𝜙̃𝑃 of size 𝑟 × 1, Matrix 𝑋1 (𝜆1 ) of size (𝑛 𝑥 𝑟),

Matrix 𝑋2 (𝜆2 ) of size (𝑛 𝑥 𝑟), dan Matrix 𝑋𝑃 (𝜆𝑃 ) of size (𝑛 𝑥 𝑟).

1 r

j 1

f ( xi ) x

j i j

xi j

j 0 j 1

q

*

f p ( x pi ) 0 11 1i

x 12

x2i 1p

x pi 11

x1i 11

x1i r1

p 1

11 1q

xqi 1q 1q

xqi rq

(7)

*

where 0 01 02 0q

f p ( x p1 ) 1 x11 xP1 0 11

x11 11

x11 r1

f p ( xp2 ) 1 x12 xP 2 11 11

x12 11

x12 r1

f p ( x pn ) 1 x1n xPn 1P 11

x1n 11

x1n r1

x11 12

x11 r2 12

xq 1 1q

x P1 rq 1q

x1n 12

x1n r2 12

xqn 1q

xqn rq 1q

127

So that equation (7) can be simplified in the form of matrix notation in accordance

with equation (6):

q

f p ( x pi ) X0 X1 1 1

X2 2 2

Xq q q

(8)

p 1

Lemma 2. If given the regression model (2) and estimator for Kernel regression

given by equation (5), then squared error given by:

|| ||2 || ([ I D( )] y Z ( ) ) ||2

Z( ) [X0 X1 ( 1 ) X q ( q )] , ( 1 , 2 ,..., n ) , ' [ 1 q

] and

1

D( ) {n W i (t j )}, i 1, 2,..., n; j 1, 2,..., n

n

1

gˆ t n W i t yi

i 1

gˆ t1 1

n W 1 t1 n W

1

2

t1

1

n W n t1 y1

gˆ t2 1

n W 1 t2 n W

1

2

t2

1

n W n t2 y2

D y (9)

gˆ tn 1

n W 1 tn n W

1

2

tn

1

n W n tn yn

q

y f p ( x pi ) g t

p 1

X0 X1 1 1

X2 2 2

XP P P

D( ) y

1

X0 X1 1

Xq q

D( )

Z D y (10)

Equation (10) gave Total squared error:

2 2

|| || || y Z ( ) D( ) y ||

2

|| y D( ) y Z ( ) ||

2

|| ( I D( )) y Z ( ) || (11)

Theorem 1. If from regression model (1), Total squared error from model (1) given

by Lemma 2, error model with multivariate normal distribution with zero mean and

𝐸(𝜀̃𝜀̃ , ) = 𝜎 2 𝐈 and, then estimator OLS for parameter 𝛽̃ found from optimization

128

lemma 2 and estimator mixed regression curve ( x, t ) is given by:

q

ˆ ˆ

,

x, t f p( )

x, t gˆ t

p 1

q

ˆ ˆ

with f p( )

x, t Z , , ĝ ,

t D y and

p 1

ˆ

[( Z ( ) ' Z ( )] 1 ( Z ( )) '( I D( )) y

Proof. To get OLS estimator for the vector parameter 𝜃̃, Theorem 2.1 gives

optimization such as equation (11), with

2

|| ( I D( )) y Z ( ) ||

2

|| ||

(( I

'

(( I D( )) y Z( ) D( )) y Z( ) )

|| ( I D( )) y ||

2

2 '

Z( ) (I

'

D( )) y

'

Z( )'

'

Z( ) (9)

To get estimator of the parameter , carried out partial derivative of equation (9)

Q / , of the following :

Q / , (|| ( I D( )) y ||

2

2 '

Z(

'

) (I D( )) y

'

Z(

'

) ' Z( ) )

ˆ

0 2( Z ( )) '( I D( )) y 2Z ( ) Z ( )

'

(10)

ˆ

Z ( )' Z ( ) ( Z ( ))' ( I D( )) y 0

Furthermore, equation can also be written in the form:

ˆ

Z ( )' Z ( ) ( Z ( )) ' ( I D( )) y

Thus obtained:

ˆ

( , ) [ Z ( ) ' Z ( )] 1 ( Z ( )) ' ( I D( )) y C( , ) y (11)

Considering equation (11), then the estimator for spline truncated linier

q

p 1

q

ˆ ˆ

fp( )

x, t Z( ) ( , ) .

p 1

gˆ ,

(t ) D( ) y.

129

Lemma 1 gives mixed regression kernel and spline truncated linier multivariable

curve:

q

( xi , ti ) f p x pi g ti

p 1

i ( xi , ti ) is given by:

q

ˆ ˆ

,

x, t fp( )

x, t gˆ t

p 1

ˆ

Corollary 1. If estimators ( , ) , fˆ , ( x, t ) , ˆ ,

x, t , ĝ t given by

Theorem 2, then:

q

A( , ) y , dan ˆ

ˆ

fp( )

x, t ,

( x, t ) B( , ) y

p 1

q

ˆ ˆ

fp( )

x, t Z , (12)

p 1

q

ˆ

fp( )

x, t Z [Z ( )' Z ( )] 1 ( Z ( ))' ( I D( )) y A( , ) y (13)

p 1

With Matrix:

A( , ) Z [Z ( )' Z ( )] 1 ( Z ( ))' ( I D( )) y

Furthermore, Theorem 1 and equation (9) and equation (13) gives:

q

ˆ ˆ

,

x, t fp( )

x, t gˆ t A( , ) y D( ) y

p 1

( A( , ) D( )) y B( , ) y

with B( , ) A( , ) D( )

Mixed estimator regression Spline linier truncated multivariable and

Kernel ˆ , x, t highly depend on many location of knot points

( 1 , 2 ,..., r ) ' and bandwidth parameter . To get the best estimator of

mixture regression Spline and Kernel, knot points and bandwith parameter should

be selected optimally. Famous Methods usuly used is Generalized Cross

Validation (GCV). GCV function is given by (Wahba,[5]) :

n 1 || y ˆ ( x, t ) ||2

,

GCV , 2

n 1trace I A , D( )

130

Optimal knot points opt

( 1( opt )

, 2( opt )

,..., r ( opt )

)' and optimal bandwidth

parameter opt is found from optimization:

G( opt

, opt

) Min{G( , )}

,

Knot points and optimal bandwidth parameter found from the smallest GCV value.

3. Concluding Remarks

If given additive regression nonparametric model:

q

y x, t f p xp g t

p 1

given by :

q

ˆ ˆ

,

x, t fp( )

x, t gˆ t where

p 1

q

ˆ

fp( )

x, t A( , ) y , gˆ t D( ) y and ˆ ,

x, t B( , ) y

p 1

ˆ x, t highly depend on knot location, many knot point and optimal

,

bandwidth parameter. Knot point and optimal bandwidth parameter found

from the smallest GCV value.

References

[1] W. Hardle, Applied Non-parametrik Regression, Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge, (1990)

[2] R.L. Eubank, Nonparametrik Regression and Spline Smoothing,

MarcelDeker: New York, (1999)

[3] E.A. Nadaraya, On Estimating Regression, Theory of Probability and its

Applications 9(1): 141+2. 141-142, (1964)

[4] G.S. Watson, Smooth Regression Analysis, Sankhya: The Indian Journal of

Statistic, series A 26 (4), 359-372, (1964)

[5] G. Wahba, Spline Models for Observational Data, SIAM Pensylvania, (1990)

[6] B.W. Otok, Optimize Knot and Basic Function At Truncated Spline and

Mltivariate Adapative Regression Spline, Proceedings of the first

international conference on mathematics and statistics ICOMS 1 june 19-21

2006 Bandung West Java. Indonesia., (2006)

[7] I.N. Budiantara, B. Lestari, and Islamiyati, Estimator Spline Terbobot dalam

Regresi Nonparametrik dan Semiparametrik Heterokesdastik untuk Data

Longitudinal, Laporan Penelitian Hibah Kompetensi, DP2M-DIKTI,

Jakarta., (2010)

131

[8] A. H. Welsh and T. W. Yee, Lokal Regression for Vector Responses, Journal

of Statistical Planning and Inference, 136, 3007-3031, (2006)

[9] F. Yao, Asymptotic Distribution of Nonparametrik Regression Estimators for

Longitudinal or Fuctional Data, Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 98, 40-56,

(2007)

[10] A. Antoniadis, J. Bigot, and Y. Sapatinas, Wavelet Estimators in

Nonparametric Regression: A Comparative Simulation Study, Journal of

Statistical Software, 6, 1-83, (2001)

[11] V. Ratnasari, I. N. Budiantara, I. Zain, M. Ratna, and N. P. A. M. Mariati ,

Comparison Truncated Spline and Fourier Series in Multivariable

Nonparametric Regresssion Model (Application: Data of Poverty in Papua,

Indonesia), International Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences IJBAS-IJENS

Vol : 15 N0:04., (2015)

[12] I.N. Budiantara, Spline Dalam Regresi Nonparametrik dan Semiparametrik:

Sebuah Pemodelan Statistika Masa Kini dan Masa Mendatang, ITS Press,

Surabaya, (2009)

[13] I.N. Budiantara and Mulianah, Pemilihan Banwidth Optimal Dalam Regresi

Semiparametrik Kernel dan Aplikasinya, Journal Sains dan Teknologi

SIGMA, 10 : 159-166, (2007)

[14] I.W. Sudiarsa, I. N. Budiantara, Suhartono, and S. W. Purnami, Combined

Estimator Fourier Series and Spline Truncated in Multivariabel

Nonparametrik Regression, Applied Mathematical Science, Vol.9, 2015, no.

100, 4997-5010, HIKARI Ltd., (2015)

Spline and Kernel estimator for Nonparametrik Regression and Its

Properties, Applied Mathematical Science, 9, No 122 hal 6083-6094, (2015)

132

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Truncated Linear Spline and Kernel Function

Rory1,a), I Nyoman Budiantara2,b), and Wahyu Wibowo 3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Statistics

Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya

a)

rory@bps.go.id

b)

i_nyoman_b@statistika.its.ac.id

c)

wahyu_w@statistika.its.ac.id

Abstract. Given paired data (𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣1𝑖 , 𝑣2𝑖 , … , 𝑣𝑚𝑖 , 𝑦𝑖 ), 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛, follow the additive

nonparametric regression model 𝑦𝑖 = 𝑓(𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣̃𝑖 ) + 𝜀𝑖 , where

𝑓(𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣̃𝑖 ) = 𝑔(𝑢𝑖 ) + ∑𝑚𝑗=1 ℎ𝑗 (𝑣𝑗𝑖 ), 𝑣 ̃𝑖 = (𝑣1𝑖 , 𝑣2𝑖 , … , 𝑣𝑚𝑖 )𝑇 . Random errors 𝜀𝑖 follow a normal

distribution with mean 0 and varian σ2. The aim of this study is to obtain a mixed estimator

𝑓(𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣̃𝑖 ). In order to accomplish the aim, the regression curve 𝑔(𝑢𝑖 ) is approached by linear

𝑇

truncated spline function with knot points 𝜉̃ = (𝜉1 , 𝜉2 , … , 𝜉𝑞 ) . While the regression curve

component ℎ𝑗 (𝑣𝑗𝑖 ) is approached by kernel function with bandwidths 𝜙̃ = (𝜙1 , 𝜙2 , … , 𝜙𝑚 )𝑇 .

Based on the MLE method, the estimator 𝑔̃(𝑢) is 𝑔̂̃𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) and the estimator ∑𝑚 ̃

𝑗=1 ℎ𝑗 (𝑣𝑗 ) is

∑𝑚 ̂̃ ̂̃ ̃ ̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) = 𝐒(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ )𝑦̃ and ∑𝑚 ̂̃ ̃ ̃. So that, the mixed

𝑗=1 ℎ𝑗𝜙 (𝑣𝑗 ), where 𝑔

𝑗 𝜙 ,𝜉 𝑗=1 ℎ𝑗 (𝑣𝑗 ) = 𝐕(𝝓)𝑦

estimator 𝑓̃(𝑢, 𝑣̃) is 𝑓̃̂𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃), where 𝑓̃̂𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) = 𝐙(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ )𝑦̃ and

̃ ̃ ̃ ̃ ̃ ̃ ̃ ̃

𝐙(𝝃, 𝝓) = 𝐒(𝝃, 𝝓) + 𝐕(𝝓). Matrix 𝐒(𝝃, 𝝓) and 𝐕(𝝓) are depended on knot points 𝝃 and ̃

bandwidths parameter 𝝓 ̃ respectively.

1. Introduction

Regression analysis is a statistical method that is often used by researchers in

various fields of research. This analysis is used to determine relationship pattern

between two or more variables in a functional form. In the functional relationship,

each variable is grouped into response variables and predictor variables. An early

identification of the relationship pattern can be done by utilizing past experience or

using a scatter plot. If the functional relationship pattern is known, the regression

model that should be used is parametric regression model. Conversely, if the

functional relationship pattern is unknown, the regression model that should be

used is nonparametric regression models [1].

In general practice, functional relationship patterns between response

variables and predictor variables are unknown. In this condition, using parametric

regression model is not suitable. Therefore, along with the development of

computation technology, nonparametric regression model is increasingly used.

Nonparametric regression model is the best choice because it has high flexibility,

in which the data is expected to look for its shape of regression curve estimation

without being influenced by researcher’s subjective factors [1]. There are many

133

estimators of nonparametric regression curve that have been developed by

researchers, including Spline [2, 3, 4, 1, 5, 6, 7, 8] and Kernel [9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 13,

14, 15].

Spline estimator is one of the estimators that has a very special and very well

statistical interpretation and visual interpretation [1]. One of spline approaches that

is often used is spline truncated. Spline truncated is a function where there is

changeable behavior patterns of curves at different sub-intervals. With support of

knot points, spline curve can overcome problems of data patterns showing sharp

up/down, so it can produce a relatively smooth curve [1]. The shape of spline

regression curve is strongly influenced by location and number of knot points.

Kernel estimator is development of the estimator histogram. Kernel

estimator is a linear estimator similar to other nonparametric regression estimator.

The difference is only because the kernel estimators more specifically in the use of

bandwidth. The advantage of kernel estimator is to have a good ability in modeling

data that have no particular pattern [11]. In addition, the kernel estimator is more

flexible; its mathematical form is simple; and it can reach a relatively faster rate of

convergence [16]. Kernel methods are easy to implement and computationally

feasible, and their definition is intuitive [15].

According to Budiantara, Ratnasari, Ratna, & Zain [17], when the

nonparametric regression and semiparametric regression developed by the

researchers above over are explored, essentially there are two very heavy and basic

assumption, i.e. first the pattern of each predictor in the multivariable

nonparametric regression model of the predictor is considered to have the same

pattern. The second assumption is researchers insist on using only one shape of

model estimator for every predictor variable. The two assumptions used in

nonparametric regression model are only theoretical. In applications on cases, data

pattern is often different from each predictor variable. Moreover, by using only one

estimator is estimating in multivariable nonparametric regression curve, the

produced estimator won’t fit the data pattern. As result, the regression model

estimation produced is not correct and tends to produce larger errors. Therefore, to

overcome these problems, some researchers have developed the mixed estimator in

which each data pattern is approached with appropriate estimator. The mixed

estimator is expected to be accurate estimator that capable to estimate data patterns

well. Some researchers who have ever developed the mixed estimator is such

Budiantara, et al [17] who developed nonparametric mixed estimator of spline

truncated and kernel. In addition, Sudiarsa, Budiantara, Suhartono & Purnami [18]

combined Fourier series estimator and truncated spline in multivariable

nonparametric regression curve.

This study will review mixed nonparametric estimator of truncated linear

spline and kernel function in nonparametric regression model. The mixed estimator

is assumed to have one data pattern following spline function and two or more data

patterns following kernel function.

2. Main Results

Given paired data (𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣1𝑖 , 𝑣2𝑖 , … , 𝑣𝑚𝑖 , 𝑦𝑖 ), 𝑖 = 1,2, . . . , 𝑛, follow the additive

nonparametric regression model

134

where 𝑣̃𝑖 = (𝑣1𝑖 , 𝑣2𝑖 , … , 𝑣𝑚𝑖 )𝑇 . The shape of regression curve 𝑓(𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣̃𝑖 ) in equation

(1) is assumed to be unknown and smooth, meaning continuous and differentiable.

Random errors 𝜀𝑖 has normal distribution with 𝐸(𝜀𝑖 ) = 0 and 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝜀𝑖 ) = 𝜎 2 . In

addition, the regression curve 𝑓(𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣̃𝑖 ) is assumed to be additive, meaning

𝑓(𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣̃𝑖 ) can be written as:

𝑓(𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣̃𝑖 ) = 𝑔(𝑢𝑖 ) + ℎ1 (𝑣1𝑖 ) + ℎ2 (𝑣2𝑖 ) + ⋯ + ℎ𝑚 (𝑣𝑚𝑖 )

𝑚

𝑗=1

In equation (2), regression curve 𝑔(𝑢𝑖 ) is approached by spline function and each

regression curve component ℎ𝑗 (𝑣𝑗𝑖 ) is approached by kernel function.

The form of spline curve is

𝑝 𝑞

𝑝

𝑔(𝑢𝑖 ) = ∑ 𝛽𝑘 𝑢𝑖𝑘 + ∑ 𝜆𝑙 (𝑢𝑖 − 𝜉𝑙 )+ (3)

𝑘=0 𝑙=0

where

(𝑢𝑖 − 𝜉𝑙 )𝑝 , 𝑢𝑖 ≥ 𝜉𝑙

(𝑢𝑖 − 𝜉𝑙 )𝑝+ ={

0 , 𝑢𝑖 < 𝜉𝑙

Parameters 𝛽0 , 𝛽1 , … , 𝛽𝑝 and 𝜆1 , 𝜆2 , … , 𝜆𝑞 are unknown, while 𝜉1 , 𝜉2 , … , 𝜉𝑞 are knot

points. Then, estimation of each kernel curve component is

𝑛

𝑖=1

where

𝐾𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗 − 𝑣𝑗𝑖 )

𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑖 (𝑣𝑗 ) =

𝑛−1 ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝐾𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗 − 𝑣𝑗𝑖 )

1 𝑣𝑗 − 𝑣𝑗𝑖

𝐾𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗 − 𝑣𝑗𝑖 ) = 𝐾( )

𝜙𝑗 𝜙𝑗

Regression curve estimator (4) is depended on kernel function 𝐾 and bandwidth

parameter 𝜙𝑗 . Kernel function 𝐾 can be a uniform kernel, triangle kernel,

epanechnikov kernel, squares kernel, tri-weight kernel, cosine kernel or Gaussian

kernel [11].

The mixed estimator for nonparametric regression curve (2) is obtained from

kernel estimator (4) and truncated spline function (3) which the polynomial

component is linear (𝑝 = 1).

Lemma 2.1. If spline curve 𝑔(𝑢𝑖 ) given by equation (3) has linear polynomial

component (𝑝 = 1), then

where vector 𝑔̃(𝑢), matrix 𝐆(𝝃̃) and vector 𝜃̃ respectively are given by

135

𝛽0

𝑔(𝑢1 ) 𝛽1

𝑔(𝑢2 ) 𝜆

𝑔̃(𝑢) = [ ], 𝜃̃ = 1 ,

⋮ 𝜆2

𝑔(𝑢𝑛 ) ⋮

[ 𝜆𝑞 ]

1 𝑢1 (𝑢1 − 𝜉1 )+ ⋯ (𝑢1 − 𝜉𝑞 )+

1 𝑢2 (𝑢2 − 𝜉1 )+ ⋯ (𝑢2 − 𝜉𝑞 )

𝐆(𝝃̃) = +

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮

[ 1 𝑢 𝑛 (𝑢𝑛 − 𝜉1 )+ ⋯ (𝑢𝑛 − 𝜉𝑞 ) ]

+

and dimension of the matrix 𝐆(𝝃̃) is 𝑛 × (𝑞 + 2).

+

(6)

+

𝑔(𝑢2 ) 𝛽 + 𝛽 𝑢 + 𝜆 (𝑢 − 𝜉 ) + ⋯ + 𝜆 (𝑢 − 𝜉 )

[ ]= 0 1 2 1 2 1 + 𝑞 2 𝑞 +

⋮ ⋮

𝑔(𝑢𝑛 )

[𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑢𝑛 + 𝜆1 (𝑢𝑛 − 𝜉1 )+ + ⋯ + 𝜆𝑞 (𝑢𝑛 − 𝜉𝑞 )+ ]

so that

𝛽0

𝑔(𝑢1 ) 1 𝑢1 (𝑢1 − 𝜉1 )+ ⋯ (𝑢1 − 𝜉𝑞 )+ 𝛽

1

𝑔(𝑢2 ) 1 𝑢2 (𝑢2 − 𝜉1 )+ ⋯ (𝑢2 − 𝜉𝑞 )+ 𝜆1

[ ]= (7)

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ 𝜆2

𝑔(𝑢𝑛 )

[1 𝑢𝑛 (𝑢𝑛 − 𝜉1 )+ ⋯ (𝑢𝑛 − 𝜉𝑞 )+ ] ⋮

[𝜆𝑞 ]

Then, the equation (7) can be simplified in matrix notation form in accordance to

equation (5).

estimator component in the equation (4), then

𝑚

̃ )𝑦̃ (8)

𝑗=1

where

ℎ̂𝑗𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗1 ) 𝑦1

ℎ̂𝑗𝜙 (𝑣𝑗2 ) 𝑦2

ℎ̂̃𝑗𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗 ) = 𝑗 𝑦̃ = [ ⋮ ]

⋮

̂

ℎ 𝑦𝑛

[ 𝑗𝜙𝑗 𝑗𝑛 )]

(𝑣

136

𝑛 𝑛 𝑛

−1 −1 −1

𝑛 ∑ 𝑊𝜙𝑗1 (𝑣𝑗1 ) 𝑛 ∑ 𝑊𝜙𝑗2 (𝑣𝑗1 ) ⋯ 𝑛 ∑ 𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑛 (𝑣𝑗1 )

𝑖=1 𝑖=1 𝑖=1

𝑛 𝑛 𝑛

−1

̃ ) = 𝑛 ∑ 𝑊𝜙𝑗1 (𝑣𝑗2 )

𝐕(𝝓 𝑛−1 ∑ 𝑊𝜙𝑗2 (𝑣𝑗2 ) … 𝑛−1 ∑ 𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑛 (𝑣𝑗2 )

𝑖=1 𝑖=1 𝑖=1

⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮

𝑛 𝑛 𝑛

[ 𝑖=1 𝑖=1 𝑖=1 ]

(9)

dimension of the matrix 𝐕(𝝓 ̃ ) is 𝑛 × 𝑛.

ℎ̂𝑗𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗𝑖 ) = 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗1 (𝑣𝑗 )𝑦1 + 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗2 (𝑣𝑗 )𝑦2 + ⋯ + 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑛 (𝑣𝑗 )𝑦𝑛

Likewise for each 𝑖 = 1 to 𝑖 = 𝑛, then:

ℎ̂𝑗𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗1 ) 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗1 (𝑣𝑗1 ) 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗2 (𝑣𝑗1 ) ⋯ 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑛 (𝑣𝑗1 ) 𝑦

1

ℎ̂𝑗𝜙 (𝑣𝑗2 ) 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗1 (𝑣𝑗2 ) 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗2 (𝑣𝑗2 ) … 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑛 (𝑣𝑗2 ) 𝑦2

𝑗 = [⋮]

⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮

̂

[ℎ𝑗𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗𝑛 )]

−1 −1

[𝑛 𝑊𝜙𝑗1 (𝑣𝑗𝑛 ) 𝑛 𝑊𝜙𝑗2 (𝑣𝑗𝑛 ) … 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑛 (𝑣𝑗𝑛 )] 𝑦𝑛

In matrix notation can be written as:

where:

𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗1 (𝑣𝑗1 ) 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗2 (𝑣𝑗1 ) ⋯ 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑛 (𝑣𝑗1 )

𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗1 (𝑣𝑗2 ) 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗2 (𝑣𝑗2 ) … 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑛 (𝑣𝑗2 )

𝐕𝒋 (𝝓𝒋 ) =

⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮

−1 −1

[𝑛 𝑊 (𝑣

𝜙𝑗 1 𝑗𝑛 ) 𝑛 𝑊𝜙𝑗 2 (𝑣𝑗𝑛 ) … 𝑛−1 𝑊𝜙𝑗𝑛 (𝑣𝑗𝑛 )]

The sum of component (10) from 𝑗 = 1 to 𝑗 = 𝑚 is

𝑚 𝑚

̃ )𝑦̃

𝑗=1 𝑗=1

where matrix ∑𝑚

𝑗=1 𝐕𝒋 (𝝓𝒋 )

̃ ) is given by equation (9)

= 𝐕(𝝓

Lemma 2.3. If spline curve is given by Lemma 2.1 and kernel estimator is given by

Lemma 2.2, then the sum of squared error for nonparametric regression model in

equation (1) is

2

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ‖

‖𝜀̃‖2 = ‖(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓 (11)

matrix with 𝑛 × 𝑛 dimension.

137

Proof. The equations (1), (2), (5) and (8) give

𝑚

𝑗=1

= 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ + 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )𝑦̃ + 𝜀̃

so that,

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃

𝜀̃ = (𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓 (12)

If vector 𝜀̃ in equation (12) is squared, then it will be formed the equation (11).

Theorem 2.1. If the sum of squared error of nonparametric regression model (1) is

given by Lemma 2.3, the error model is distributed normal multivariate with zero

mean, 𝐸(𝜀̃𝜀̃ 𝑇 ) = 𝜎 2 𝐈 and the likelihood function is 𝐿(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 2 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃), then the MLE

estimator for parameter 𝜃̃ is obtained from optimization:

2

Max {𝐿(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 2 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃)} = Min {‖(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ‖ } (13)

̃ ∈𝑅𝑞+2

𝜃 𝑞+2̃ ∈𝑅

𝜃

is distributed normal multivariate with 𝐸(𝜀̃) = 0 and 𝐸(𝜀̃𝜀̃ 𝑇 ) = 𝜎 2 𝐈, then the

likelihood function 𝐿(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 2 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃) is given by:

𝑛

1 1 2

𝐿(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃) = ∏

2

exp (− 𝜀 )

√2𝜋𝜎 2 2𝜎 2 𝑖

𝑖=1

𝑛 1

= (2𝜋𝜎 2 )−2 exp (− ‖𝜀̃‖2 )

2𝜎 2

In accordance with Lemma 2.3, then:

1 𝑛 2

𝐿(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 2 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃) = (2𝜋𝜎 2 )−2 exp (−

2

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ‖ )

‖(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

2𝜎

Based on the MLE method, estimator of parameter 𝜃̃ is obtained from

optimization:

1 𝑛 2

Max {𝐿(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 2 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃)} = Max {(2𝜋𝜎 2 )− 2 exp (− 2𝜎2 ‖(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ‖ )}

̃ ∈𝑅

𝜃 𝑞+2 ̃ ∈𝑅

𝜃 𝑞+2

If the likelihood function is transformed to the natural logarithm form, then the

optimization will be:

𝑛 1 2

Max {𝐿(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 2 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃)} = Max {− 2 ln(2𝜋𝜎 2 ) − 2𝜎2 ‖(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ‖ }

̃ ∈𝑅

𝜃 𝑞+2 ̃ ∈𝑅

𝜃𝑞+2

2

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ‖

‖(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

has a minimum value, so that equation (13) is valid.

Theorem 2.2. If regression model is given by equation (1), the sum of squared

138

error is given by Lemma 2.3, the error model is distributed normal multivariate

with zero mean and (𝜀̃𝜀̃ 𝑇 ) = 𝜎 2 𝐈, MLE estimator for parameter 𝜃̃ is obtained from

optimization as theorem 2.1, then MLE estimator for the mixed regression curve

𝑓̃(𝑢, 𝑣̃) is given by

𝑚

𝑗=1

where

𝑚

̃ )𝑦̃

𝑗=1

𝑇 −1 𝑇

𝜃̃̂(𝜉̃, 𝜙̃) = [(𝐆(𝝃̃)) 𝐆(𝝃̃)] (𝐆(𝝃̃)) (𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃

̃ ) is given by Lemma 2.2, while

matrix 𝐈 is an identity matrix.

Proof. To obtain MLE estimator for parameter 𝜃̃, Theorem 2.1 produces an

optimization as in equation (13), with considered:

2

𝑄(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 2 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃) = ‖(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ‖

so that

𝑇

𝑄(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 2 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃) = [(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ] [(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ]

𝑇 𝑇

̃ )) − 𝜃̃ 𝑇 (𝐆(𝝃̃)) ] [(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

= [𝑦̃ 𝑇 (𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓 ̃ )) 𝑦̃ − 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ ]

2 𝑇

̃ )) 𝑦̃‖ − 2𝜃̃ 𝑇 (𝐆(𝝃̃)) (𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

= ‖(𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓 ̃ )) 𝑦̃

𝑇

+𝜃̃ 𝑇 (𝐆(𝝃̃)) 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃

Furthermore, the partial derivatives:

𝜕

(𝑄(𝜃̃ , 𝜎 2 |𝜙̃, 𝜉̃)) = 0

𝜕𝜃̃

gives a normal equation:

𝑇 𝑇

(𝐆(𝝃̃)) 𝐆(𝝃̃)𝜃̃ = (𝐆(𝝃̃)) (𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃

𝑇 −1 𝑇

𝜃̃̂(𝜉̃, 𝜙̃) = [(𝐆(𝝃̃)) 𝐆(𝝃̃)] (𝐆(𝝃̃)) (𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃ (14)

Considering the equation (14) and invariant characteristic of MLE, then the

estimator for spline curve is given by:

So that, based on the equation (15) and Lemma 2.2, then the mixed estimators for

139

nonparametric regression curve (2) is

𝑚

𝑗=1

Corollary 2.1. If the estimators 𝑓̃̂𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃), 𝑔̃̂𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃), ∑𝑚 ̂̃ ̂̃ ̃ ̃

𝑗=1 ℎ𝑗𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗 ) and 𝜃 (𝜉 , 𝜙 )

are given by Theorem 2.2, then

̃ )𝑦̃ and 𝑓̃̂ ̃ ̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) = 𝐙(𝝃̃, 𝝓

𝑔̂̃𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) = 𝐒(𝝃̃, 𝝓 ̃ )𝑦̃

𝜙,𝜉

where

𝑇 −1 𝑇

𝐒(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ ) = 𝐆(𝝃̃) [(𝐆(𝝃̃)) 𝐆(𝝃̃)] (𝐆(𝝃̃)) (𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓))

𝐙(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ ) = 𝐒(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ ) + 𝐕(𝝓

̃)

𝑇 −1 𝑇

𝑔̂̃𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) = 𝐆(𝝃̃) [(𝐆(𝝃̃)) 𝐆(𝝃̃)] (𝐆(𝝃̃)) (𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃

̃ )𝑦̃ (16)

where:

𝑇 −1 𝑇

𝐒(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ ) = 𝐆(𝝃̃) [(𝐆(𝝃̃)) 𝐆(𝝃̃)] (𝐆(𝝃̃)) (𝐈 − 𝐕(𝝓))

̃ )𝑦̃ + 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )𝑦̃

where:

̃ ) + 𝐕(𝝓

̃ )) 𝑦̃

̃ )𝑦̃

where:

𝐙(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ ) = 𝐒(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ ) + 𝐕(𝝓

̃ ).

Mixed estimators of spline and kernel 𝑓̃̂𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) are very depended on the knot

𝑇

points 𝜉̃ = (𝜉1 , 𝜉2 , … , 𝜉𝑞 ) and the bandwidth parameters 𝜙̃ = (𝜙1 , 𝜙2 , … , 𝜙𝑚 )𝑇 .

Getting the best spline and kernel nonparametric mixed estimators is required the

selection of optimal knot points and optimal bandwidths. A method to conduct it is

by using Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) method.

140

MSE(𝜉̃, 𝜙̃)

GCV(𝜉̃, 𝜙̃) = 2

(𝑛−1 trace (𝐈 − 𝐙(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ )))

where

𝑛

2

MSE(𝜉̃, 𝜙̃) = 𝑛 −1

∑ (𝑦𝑖 − 𝑓̂𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢𝑖 , 𝑣̃𝑖 )) .

𝑖=1

𝑇

Optimal knot points 𝜉̃(opt) = (𝜉1(opt) , 𝜉2(opt) , … , 𝜉𝑞(opt) ) and optimal bandwidths

𝑇

𝜙̃(opt) = (𝜙1(opt) , 𝜙2(opt) , … , 𝜙𝑚(opt) ) are obtained from optimation:

GCV(𝜉̃(opt) , 𝜙̃(opt) ) = Min{GCV(𝜉̃, 𝜙̃)}

𝜉̃ ,𝜙

̃

3. Concluding Remarks

Consider mixed nonparametric regression model 𝑦̃ = 𝑓̃(𝑢, 𝑣̃) + 𝜀̃, where

𝑓̃(𝑢, 𝑣̃) = 𝑔̃(𝑢) + ∑𝑚 ̃

𝑗=1 ℎ𝑗 (𝑣𝑗 ) + 𝜀̃. The nonparametric mixed regression estimator

is 𝑓̃̂ ̃ ̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) = 𝑔̂̃ ̃ ̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) + ∑𝑚 ̃̂ ̃̂ ̃) = 𝐙(𝝃̃, 𝝓

𝑗=1 ℎ𝑗𝜙 (𝑣𝑗 ), where 𝑓 ̃ ̃ (𝑢, 𝑣

̃ )𝑦̃,

𝜙,𝜉 𝜙,𝜉 𝑗 𝜙,𝜉

𝑔̂̃𝜙̃,𝜉̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) = 𝐒(𝝃̃, 𝝓

̃ )𝑦̃ and ∑𝑚 ̃̂ ̃ ̃. The mixed estimator

𝑗=1 ℎ𝑗𝜙𝑗 (𝑣𝑗 ) = 𝐕(𝝓)𝑦

𝑓̃̂ ̃ ̃ (𝑢, 𝑣̃) is depended on knot points location, the number of knot points and

𝜙,𝜉

bandwidth parameters. The best mixed estimators are associated with optimal knot

points and optimal bandwidth parameters. The optimal knot points and optimal

bandwidth parameters are obtained from the smallest GCV.

References

[1] R. L. Eubank, Nonparametric Regression and Spline Smoothing, New

York: Marcel Dekker, Inc, (1999)

[2] C. H. Reinsch, Smoothing by Spline Functions, Numerische Mathematik,

pp. hal. 77-183, (1967)

[3] B. W. Silverman, Some Aspects of The Spline Smoothing Approach to

Non-parametric Regression Curve Fitting, Journal of the Royal Statistical

Society. Series B (Methodological), pp. Vol. 47, No. 1, hal. 1-52,, (1985)

[4] G. Wahba, Spline Models for Observational Data, Philadelphia: Society for

Industrial and Applied Mathematics, (1990)

[5] H. Liang, Estimation in Partially Linear Models and Numerical

Comparisons, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vols. Vol. 50,

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142

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

(Case Study: Proportions of Dropout Children

in Poverty)

Amalia Noviamti1,a), Kartika Fithriasari,b), and Irhamah 3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Statistics, Institute of Technology Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya

a) amalia.noviani@gmail.com

b) kartika_f@statistika.its.ac.id

c) irhamahn@gmail.com

Abstract. Due to limited budget, survey data, originally designed to provide reliable statistics,

design based estimates of characteristics of interest for a high level of aggregation also is used to

generate estimates at a lower level, a demographic group, a demographic group within a

geographic region, etc. Using one of the regular surveys in the socio-economic field conducted by

Statistics Indonesia, proportions of dropout children in poverty will be estimated. By borrowing

strength from the related area, the estimation will be done by using small area estimation

technique. Since the variable of interest that examined in this study is binary data, HB approach

will be used to assign the goal of this study. The results shows that five cities have proportions of

dropout children 7 – 15 years old in poverty less than one percent, fourteen districts/cities above

two percent, and the other nineteen districts/cities have proportions of dropout children 7 – 15

years old in poverty around one percent.

Keywords and Phrases: Small Area Estimation, Bayesian, Dropout Children, Poverty.

1. Introduction

Sample surveys are commonly used for data collection in many areas,

particularly the social sciences. They have taken the place of complete enumeration

or census as a more cost-effective means of obtaining information on wide-ranging

topics of interest at frequent intervals over time. Nowadays, the demand for

statistical estimates for small areas using large-scale survey data has increased in

many different application areas including income and poverty, education, and

health. The same survey data, originally designed to provide statistically reliable,

design based estimates of characteristics of interest for a high level of aggregation

(e.g., national level, large geographic domains such as province), also is used to

generate estimates at a lower level (e.g., county, city, etc.), a demographic group

(e.g. age x sex), a demographic group within a geographic region, etc. The usual

direct survey estimators for a small area, based on data only from the sample units

in the area, are likely to yield unacceptably large standard errors due to unduly

small size of the sample in the area.

Due to its difficulties, it is often necessary to employ indirect estimation

that borrows information from related areas through explicit (or implicit) linking

models, using census and administrative data associated with the small areas.

Indirect estimators based on explicit linking models or called small area models

have received a lot of attention in recent years because of the following advantages

143

over the traditional indirect estimators based on implicit models: (i) Explicit

model-based methods make specific allowance for local variation through complex

error structures in the model that link the small areas. (ii) Models can be validated

from the sample data. (iii) Methods can handle complex cases such as cross-

sectional and time series data, binary or count data, spatially-correlated data and

multivariate data. (iv) Area-specific measures of variability associated with the

estimates may be obtained, unlike overall measures commonly used with the

traditional indirect estimators [1].

Small area models can be classified into two broad types: area level models

that relate the small area means to area-specific auxiliary variables and unit level

models that relate the unit values of the study variable to unit-specific auxiliary

variables. Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (EBLUP) estimators,

parametric Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators, and parametric Hierarchical Bayes

(HB) estimators are three most known indirect estimators based on explicit linking

models. There are some differences between the three approach: EBLUP is

applicable for linear mixed models that cover the basic area level and unit level

models, whereas EB and HB are more generally applicable, covering generalized

linear mixed models that are used to handle categorical (e.g., binary) and count

data. MSE is used as a measure of variability under the EBLUP and EB

approaches, while the HB approach uses the posterior variance as a measure of

variability, assuming a prior distribution on the model parameters. In general, HB

approach has more advantage because it is straightforward, the inferences are

“exact” unlike the EB (or EBLUP) approach, and it can handle complex small area

models using MCMC methods, even though it requires the specification of a prior

on the model parameters. Some application of EBLUP, EB, and HB approach can

be seen in [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], and [6].

This study aims to estimate proportions of dropout children in poverty,

hence, it can be taken into consideration in policy decisions related to education for

school-age children especially those from poor households. Even though East Java

Province is one province that is considered to have successfully run a 9-year

compulsory education program, according to the Education Department of East

Java Province, for the academic year 2012/2013, the number of dropout children at

the primary level is 4,848 people (0.11 percent), and at the junior secondary level is

6,858 persons (0.38 percent) [7]. One of the factors that influence the decision to

drop out of school is economic factor of the family. Results of research of dropout

in elementary and junior high schools conducted by Statistics Indonesia [8] as well

as research conducted by Santoso in [8] in rural areas in East Java showed that the

cost limitations are the reasons by around 50 percent of respondents. School-age

children who come from poor families have possibility of dropping out of school

four times greater than those from affluent families [9]. Research by the National

Center for Education Statistics (NCES) also mentions that in the United States,

school-age children from low-income families are likely to drop out of school at

the high school level five times higher than those from middle-income families and

six times higher rather than school-age children who come from high-income

families [10].

Every year, Statistics Indonesia issued a poverty rate that is calculated from

the results of the National Socio Economic Survey or Survei Sosial Ekonomi

Nasional (Susenas) up to the level of district/city. However, the proportions of

dropout children 7 – 15 years old in poverty cannot be calculate directly from the

results of Susenas due its insufficient sample amount, even for the level of

district/city. Therefore, we need to use small area estimation technique. Since the

144

response variable is a categorical (binary) data, HB approach will be used to assign

the goal of this study. As for the predictor variables will be taken from East Java

Province in Figures 2014 and Education Statistical Executive Summary of East

Java Province 2014, as follows: percentage of poor people (Z1), illiteracy rate (Z2),

student – class ratio (Z3) each district/city in East Java Province 2013.

2. Main Results

2.1. Small Area Model

Small area models can be classified into two broad types: basic area level

models and basic unit level models [1].

A. Basic Area Level Models

Basic area level models are essential if unit (element) level data are not

𝑇

available. In this model, only area-specific auxiliary data 𝑧𝑖 = (𝑧1𝑖 , 𝑧2𝑖 , … , 𝑧𝑝𝑖 ) ,

related to some suitable functions 𝜃𝑖 = 𝑔(𝑌𝑖 ) of the small area total 𝑌𝑖 (𝑖 =

1, … , 𝑚), are used to develop a linking model of the form 𝜃𝑖 = 𝒛𝑻𝒊 𝜷 + 𝑣𝑖 with

𝑣𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑣2 ) where 𝜎𝑣2 is the model variance. The linking model is combined

with the matching sampling model 𝜃̂𝑖 = 𝜃𝑖 + 𝑒𝑖 , where 𝜃̂𝑖 = 𝑔(𝑌 ̂𝑖 ) is a direct

estimator of 𝜃𝑖 and 𝑒𝑖 |𝜃𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜓𝑖 ) with known sampling variance 𝜓𝑖 . The

combined model 𝜃̂𝑖 = 𝒛𝑇𝑖 𝜷 + 𝑣𝑖 + 𝑒𝑖 is a special case of the linear mixed model.

The basic area level model has at least two limitations. First, the

assumption of known sampling variances, 𝜓𝑖 , is restrictive, although methods

based on generalized variance functions (GVF) have been proposed to produce

smoothed estimates of the 𝜓𝑖 ’s. Secondly, the assumption 𝐸(𝑒𝑖 |𝜃𝑖 ) = 0 may not be

tenable if the small area sample size 𝑛𝑖 is small and 𝜃𝑖 is a nonlinear function of

the total 𝑌𝑖 , even if the director estimator 𝑌̂𝑖 is design-unbiased for 𝑌𝑖 . It is more

realistic to use the sampling model 𝑌 ̂𝑖 = 𝑌𝑖 + 𝑓𝑖 with 𝐸(𝑓𝑖 |𝑌𝑖 ) = 0, which simply

̂

says that 𝑌𝑖 is design-unbiased for 𝑌𝑖 . Further, assume that 𝑉(𝑓𝑖 |𝑌𝑖 ) = 𝜎2𝑖 , where

the sampling variance may depend on 𝑌𝑖 ; for example, 𝜎𝑖2 = 𝑌𝑖2 𝑐𝑖2 , where 𝑐𝑖 is the

known coefficient of variation of 𝑌 ̂𝑖 ascertained from fitting GVF’s. The sampling

model is now unmatched with the linking model in the sense that they cannot be

combined directly to produce a linear mixed model. Various extensions of the basic

area level (also called Fay-Herriot model) have been proposed to handle correlated

sampling errors, spatial dependence of the model errors 𝑣𝑖 and time-series and

cross-sectional data [1].

B. Basic Unit Level Models

In basic unit level model, unit level auxiliary variables 𝑥𝑖 =

𝑇

(𝑥𝑖𝑗1 , 𝑥𝑖𝑗2 , … , 𝑥𝑖𝑗𝑝 ) are related to the unit y-values 𝑦𝑖𝑗 through a nested error

linear regression model 𝑦𝑖𝑗 = 𝒙𝑇𝑖𝑗 𝜷 + 𝑣𝑖 + 𝑒𝑖𝑗 , where 𝑣𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑣2 ) and

independent of 𝑒𝑖𝑗 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑒2 ). Various extensions of the basic unit-level model

have been proposed to handle binary responses, two-stage sampling within areas,

multivariate responses and others [1].

145

2.2. Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) in Small Area Estimation (SAE)

Recently, HB approach has been proposed for small area estimation

problems because they have many advantages: (i) their specification is

straightforward and allows to take into account the different sources of variation

and (ii) inferences are clear-cut and computationally feasible in most cases by

using standard MCMC techniques (Trevisani, Torelli [11]). This study use a HB

version of the logit-normal model with area level covariates 𝒛𝑖 that can be

expressed as

(i) 𝑦𝑖 |𝑝𝑖 ~𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙(𝑛𝑖 , 𝑝𝑖 ), 𝑝𝑖 is proportions of dropout children in poverty for

district/city 𝑖, 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑚.

(ii) Model A : 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑡(𝑝𝑖 ) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑍1 + 𝑣𝑖 ; 𝑣𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑣2 )

Model B : 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑡(𝑝𝑖 ) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑍2 + 𝑣𝑖 ; 𝑣𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑣2 )

Model C : 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑡(𝑝𝑖 ) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑍3 + 𝑣𝑖 ; 𝑣𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑣2 )

Model D : 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑡(𝑝𝑖 ) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑍1 + 𝛽2 𝑍2 + 𝑣𝑖 ; 𝑣𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑣2 )

Model E : 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑡(𝑝𝑖 ) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑍1 + 𝛽2 𝑍3 + 𝑣𝑖 ; 𝑣𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑣2 )

Model F : 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑡(𝑝𝑖 ) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑍2 + 𝛽2 𝑍3 + 𝑣𝑖 ; 𝑣𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑣2 )

Model G : 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑡(𝑝𝑖 ) = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑍1 + 𝛽2 𝑍2 + 𝛽3 𝑍3 + 𝑣𝑖 ; 𝑣𝑖 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎𝑣2 )

(iii) 𝛽 and 𝜎𝑣2 are mutually independent with 𝜎𝑣−2 ~𝐺(𝑎, 𝑏), 𝑎 ≥ 0, 𝑏 > 0 and

𝛽~𝑁(0, 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛)

This study uses distribution proper prior distribution and noninformative

conjugate Gamma (0.0001, 0.0001) to precision parameter of random effect area

(hyperprior) 𝜎𝑣2 . Markov chain used is single run with burn-in period of 100 and

different period of iteration and thin for each model based on the convergenced

diagnostics of Markov chain. Markov chain convergence diagnostics can be

performed through trace plot, density plot, and autocorrelation plot.

Data

Table 1 shows burn-in, iteration, and thin period, also estimated value for

parameters for each model when Markov chain have been convergenced. It appears

that all of parameter in model C are significant at the 90 percent confidence

interval. Table 1 also shows DIC value for each model that presented that model fit

to the data. Smallest value of DIC also generated by the model C. Thus, the best

model to estimate proportions of dropout children in poverty is model C that can

formulated as follows:

𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑖𝑡(𝑝𝑖 ) = −2,803 − 0,047𝑍3 (4.1)

The negative sign of the estimated value β indicates that the increase in the

value of Z causes a decrease in the value of the log odds of proportions and

otherwise. Suppose that the estimated value 𝛽1 = – 0,047 shows that every 1

student increase in the ratio of student per class in a district/city, the tendency of a

district/city to decrease the proportions of dropout children 7 – 15 years old in

poverty is 1,048 times. The increase of the number of students in class can

encourage children from poor households to stay in school because they can gain

knowledge, play, socialize, and not impossible to forget for a moment the

economic burden and the problems faced by families.

146

TABLE 1. Burn-in Period, Iteration, Thin, and Results of Parameter Estimation

Credible

Burn- Para- Interval

Model Iteration Thin Mean DIC

in meter

5% 95%

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]

A 100 4,000,000 400 93.682

𝛽1 0.007 -0.040 0.055

B 100 3,500,000 350 93.755

𝛽1 0.002 -0.042 0.047

C 100 4,000,000 400 91.065

𝛽1 -0.047 -0.097 -0.002

G 100 2,750,000 300 93.817

𝛽2 -0.062 -0.161 0.034

With the equation (4.1), the proportion of dropout children 7 – 15 years old

in poverty for district/city level in East Java Province are estimated. As shown in

Table 2, the proportion of dropout children 7 – 15 years old in poverty in Kediri

City, Probolinggo City, Mojokerto City, Madiun City, and Batu City each less than

one percent. Pacitan, Trenggalek, Blitar, Jember, Situbondo, Probolinggo,

Pasuruan, Sidoarjo, Magetan, Ngawi, Bojonegoro, Lamongan, Pamekasan, and

Sumenep has the proportion of dropout children 7 – 15 years old in poverty

respectively above two percent. While the other nineteen districts/cities have the

proportion of dropout children 7 – 15 years old in poverty around one percent. The

distribution of proportions of dropout children 7 – 15 years old in poverty in East

Java Province of the year 2013 shown in Figure 1.

147

TABLE 2. Proportions of Dropout Children 7 – 15 Years Old In Poverty by

District/City, 2013

Standard Credible Interval

District/City Mean

Deviation 5 Percent 95 Percent

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

Pacitan 2,444 0,766 1,416 3,716

Ponorogo 1,855 0,487 1,106 2,585

Trenggalek 2,003 0,579 1,318 2,929

Tulungagung 1,909 0,485 1,100 2,678

Blitar 2,417 0,804 1,460 3,732

Kediri 1,841 0,482 1,169 2,613

Malang 1,625 0,438 0,947 2,280

Lumajang 1,507 0,537 0,886 2,339

Jember 2,130 0,573 1,354 3,075

Banyuwangi 1,872 0,495 1,130 2,640

Bondowoso 1,968 0,502 1,312 2,815

Situbondo 2,019 0,534 1,181 2,896

Probolinggo 2,068 0,578 1,397 3,102

Pasuruan 2,008 0,538 1,338 2,934

Sidoarjo 2,501 0,859 1,454 3,859

Mojokerto 1,727 0,481 1,050 2,434

Jombang 1,826 0,485 1,153 2,557

Nganjuk 1,882 0,479 1,257 2,679

Madiun 1,867 0,486 1,133 2,605

Magetan 2,592 0,881 1,476 4,087

Ngawi 2,131 0,589 1,240 3,088

Bojonegoro 2,000 0,527 1,163 2,840

Tuban 1,777 0,499 1,135 2,539

Lamongan 2,544 0,880 1,400 3,997

Gresik 1,877 0,506 1,218 2,679

Bangkalan 1,494 0,450 0,903 2,255

Sampang 1,787 0,440 1,030 2,462

Pamekasan 2,103 0,551 1,240 3,005

Sumenep 2,407 0,729 1,329 3,686

Kediri City 0,845 0,479 0,247 1,751

Blitar City 1,085 0,449 0,453 1,886

Malang City 1,433 0,427 0,785 2,087

Probolinggo City 0,939 0,446 0,342 1,783

Pasuruan City 1,050 0,454 0,424 1,882

Mojokerto City 0,662 0,554 0,108 1,732

Madiun City 0,946 0,474 0,324 1,834

Surabaya City 1,474 0,482 0,863 2,221

Batu City 0,855 0,487 0,250 1,805

148

FIGURE 1. Distribution of proportions of dropout children 7 – 15 years old in

poverty, 2013

3. Concluding Remarks

This study presents the HB estimation procedure for an ensemble of

parameters related to proportions of dropout children 7 – 15 years old in poverty.

This study uses distribution proper prior distribution and noninformative conjugate

Gamma (0.0001, 0.0001) to precision parameter of random effect area

(hyperprior). The HB method accounts for the uncertainty involved in the

estimation of mean and variance of prior parameters by assigning the distributions

of prior parameters. Moreover, the HB approach provides standard errors along

with the point estimates. Of all combinations of models produced, the best model is

obtained by using ratio of students per class as predictor variable and the results are

describe as follows: five cities have proportions of dropout children 7 – 15 years

old in poverty less than one percent, fourteen districts/cities above two percent, and

the other nineteen districts/cities have proportions of dropout children 7 – 15 years

old in poverty around one percent. As for suggestions for future research are the

use of other variables that may have influenced proportions of dropout children 7 –

15 years old in poverty, and incorporate spatial and Bayesian element in the model

References

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Income of Four Person Families by State Using Time Series and Cross-

Sectional Data, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference. 102, 83 - 97,

(2002)

[3] B. Liu, Adaptive Hierarchical Bayes Estimation of Small-Area Proportions,

JSM, 3785 - 3799, (2009)

[4] S. Song, Small Area Estimation of Unployment: From Feasibility to

Implementation, Paper presented at the New Zealand Association of

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[5] A. Ubaidillah, N. Iriawan, B.S. Ulama, and K. Fithriasari, Pemodelan

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Purwokerto, (2013)

Prediction Pada Small Area Estimation Untuk Estimasi Angka

Pengangguran Tingkat Kecamatan di Propinsi Sulawesi Utara, Thesis,

Institute Technology of Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), (2014)

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2012/2013, Department of Education East Java Province, (2014)

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150

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Quantile Regression to Estimate The Effect of

Return to Education on Earning

Zablin1,a), Irhammah2,b), and Dedy Dwi Prastyo3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Jl. Arief Rahman

Hakim, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia

a) zablin@bps.go.id

b) irhamah@statistika.its.ac.id

c) dedy-dp@statistika.its.ac.id

Abstract. Education plays an important role in transfers skill and knowledge toward the

increasing in productivity and earning. Using so-called mincer earning function, we investigated

the effect of years of schooling, commonly known as return to education, on earning over

quantile. By specifying the effect of covariate at different quantile levels we allow the covariate to

affect response variable not only at the center of its distribution, but also at its spread. We

employed two methods to estimate parameters in mincer equation: (i) Bayesian quantile

regression (BQR) and (ii) Bayesian quantile regression with adaptive least absolute shrinkage and

selection operator (Lasso) penalty (BALQR). The latter method extends the bayesian Lasso

penalty term by employing different penalty function with an adaptive tuning parameter

accomodated in the inverse gamma prior distribution. Data used in this paper is samples from

workers in agricultural sector in South Sulawesi. Empirical results showed that BALQR

outperformed over BQR because it resulted in smaller mean squared error (MSE). These two

methods showed that in general return to education is higher in top of quantile than in bottom of

quantile of earnings distribution. The workers in agricultural sectors with higher earnings received

higher return to education than the lower earnings workers.

Keywords: Bayesian quantile regression, adaptive lasso penalty, mincer equation.

1. Introduction

Indonesian government (central and regional), started from 2009, allocated

around twenty percent of spending to education as a mandatory according to

constitutions 1945 and constitutional court decision number 13/PUU-VI.I.2008.

However, many provincial governments did not allocate their bugdet up to twenty

percent for education. Instead, they had various program for increasing schools

enrolments. For example, South Sulawesi provincial government provides free

education. The government believes that investment in education is a key to

success in economics. The education is believed to plays an important role to

transfers skill and knowledge in order to increase the productivity and earnings of

society.

Mincer [12] published his study about schooling, experience and earnings

after estimated on thousands of data sets for a large number of countries and time

periods. Depart from theoretical and empirical arguments, Mincer modeled the

natural logarithm of earnings as function of years of schooling and years of

potential experience (age minus year of schooling). The model is widely used and

151

became popular as Mincer equation. This equation now be a formal model of

investment in human capital. Moreover, another part the widely used of mincer

equation is that providing a parsimonious specification that fits the data remarkably

well in most context. The mincer equation was employed by Purnastuti, Miller and

Salim [13] to estimate the return rate education in Indonesia using data from

Indonesian Family Life Survey. The research found that there was a declining rate

of return to education between 1993 and 2007. Comola and Mello [3] employed

ordinary least square (OLS), Heckman’s approach, and multinomial selection to

estimate Mincer equation in Indonesia using data from National Labor Force

Survey (Sakernas) 2004. The study reported that return to education coefficient

obtained from OLS is about 9.5%-10.3%. The Heckman’s approach resulted in the

estimates value is about 10.8%-11.6% whereas the multinomial selection method

estimated the coefficient ranged from 10.2%-11.2%.

OLS regression only captures the effect of predictor on the changing of

response variable’s mean. In certain cases it is not informative enough. Scientist

needs more information about how predictor affects response variable along its

distribution. To overcome such a problem, Koenker and Basset [6] extended

Median regression to Quantile regression (QR). As an alternative to conditional

mean regression, QR can be readily extended to tail locations where social science

research is often of interest. The QR is robust to outlier. It has been applied to

Mincer equation; see (among others) Buchinsky (1994). At the beginning, Least

Absolute Deviation (LAD) method was employed to estimate parameters in QR.

Koenker and Machado [7] showed that loss function in QR similar with density

function of Asymmetric Laplace Distribution (ALD). Yu and Moyeed [15], Yu,

Kerm and Zhang [16], as well as Li, Xi and Lin [11] employed ALD to estimate

parameters of QR in bayesian perspective.

Tibshirani [14] proposed regularization technique so-called least absolute

shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) for simultaneous estimation and variable

selection. The elastic-net was introduced by Zou and Hastie [17] to overcome the

weakness of the lasso. Haerdle and Prastyo [5] applied lasso and elastic-net in logit

model for default risk calculation. Zou [18] extended lasso by applying different

penalty for different coefficient. This new methodology is called adaptive lasso.

Alhamzawi, Yu, and Benoit [1] applied the adaptive lasso penalty on Bayesian

Quantile Regression.

A number of studies using QR investigated how schooling affects the

earnings at different point in earning distribution, not only at the mean of earnings.

Such studies have important policy implications. For instance, do poor individual

earn lower returns on the same level of education than the rich? If so, does it

happend because the poor have access only poor-quality schooling? In this case,

the quality of school the poor attend needs to be improved. Yet, poor individual

might earn lower return on the same level of education because individuals with

characteristics other than schooling, such as ability and motivation, tend to benefit

more from education [4]. Following previous studies, this paper employed quantile

regression to estimate mincer equation. The aim of this study is to provide a

complete view of relationship between education and earnings in South Sulawesi in

2014. The parameters estimation method used is based on bayesian perspective

with adaptive lasso penalty.

152

2. Main Results

2.1. Quantile Regression and Asymmetric Laplace Distribution

Relationship between response variable Y and predictor X can be modelled as

linear regression:

𝒚 = 𝑿𝜷 + 𝜺, (1)

where 𝜷 is vector of parameters (𝛽0 𝛽1 𝛽2 ∙∙∙ 𝛽𝑘 )′ and 𝜺 is vector of error. The

estimates of 𝜷 can be obtained using least square method by minimazing sum

square residual ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑦𝑖 − 𝒙′𝑖 𝜷)2 . The estimator for 𝜷 in quantile regression is

obtained by minimazing sum of error imposed in check function, 𝜌𝜏 (𝑢), where 𝜏 is

quantile, 𝜏 ∈ (0,1):

𝛽̂ = argmin ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝜌𝜏 (𝑦𝑖 − 𝒙′𝑖 𝜷), (2)

𝛽

where

𝜌𝜏 (𝜀) = 𝜀 {𝜏 − 𝐼(𝜀 < 0)}. (3)

ALD:

𝑓𝜏 (𝜀) = 𝜏 (1 − 𝜏) exp{−𝜌𝜏 (𝜀)}, (4)

with 𝜌𝜏 (𝜀) is defined in (3). So, minimization of the loss function in QR is

exactly equivalent to maximizing the likelihood function of independent

observation that follow ALD.

The QR is a linear model as in (1) with 𝜀 has ALD density function

formulated in (4). Kotz, Kazubowski and Podgorski (2001) showed that

ALD has various mixture representation. One of them is a mixture of

normal and exponensial distribution as described in Lemma 4.1.

Lemma 4.1. Let u ~𝐸𝑥𝑝(1), z ~𝑁(0,1), 𝜏 ∈ (0,1),

1−2𝜏 2

𝑝= and 𝑞 = √

𝜏(1−𝜏) 𝜏(1−𝜏)

distribution with density in (4).

Based on Lemma 4.1, the linear model in (1) is equivalent with:

𝑦𝑖 = 𝒙′𝑖 𝜷𝜏 + 𝑝𝑢𝑖 + 𝑞 √𝑢𝑖 𝑧𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑛. (5)

𝑦𝑖 −𝒙′𝑖 𝜷𝜏 − 𝑝𝑢𝑖 1

If 𝑧𝑖 = 𝑞 √𝑢𝑖

and 𝑑𝑧𝑖 = 𝑞 𝑑𝑦𝑖 , then the density of 𝑦𝑖 conditional

√𝑢𝑖

on 𝑢𝑖 :

2

∞ 1 (𝑦 −𝒙′𝑖 𝜷𝜏 −𝑝𝑢𝑖 ) 1

𝑓(𝑦𝑖 |𝑢𝑖 ) = ∫−∞ √2𝜋 exp(− 𝑖 2𝑞 2𝑢

)𝑞 𝑑𝑦𝑖 (6)

𝑖 √𝑢𝑖

153

is normal distribution with mean 𝜇 = 𝒙′𝑖 𝜷𝜏 + 𝑝𝑢𝑖 and variance 𝜎 2 = 𝑞 2 𝑢𝑖 .

Adding scale parameter 𝜎 to model (5) we have (7):

𝑦𝑖 = 𝒙′𝑖 𝜷𝜏 + 𝜎 −1 𝑝𝑢𝑖 + 𝜎 −1 𝑞 √𝑢𝑖 𝑧𝑖 . (7)

Dealing with gibbs sampling process, we need to transform (7) on to (8):

𝑦𝑖 = 𝒙′𝑖 𝜷𝜏 + 𝑝𝑣𝑖 + 𝜎 −1⁄2 𝑞 √𝑣𝑖 𝑧𝑖 , (8)

where 𝑣𝑖 = 𝜎−1 𝑢𝑖 . The joint conditional density of 𝑦 given 𝜷𝜏 , 𝜎, 𝑣 is:

2

1 (𝑦𝑖 −𝒙′𝑖 𝜷𝜏 −𝑝𝑣𝑖 )

𝑓(𝒚|𝜷𝜏 , 𝜎, 𝑣) = ∏𝑛𝑖=1 exp (− ). (9)

√2𝜋 𝜎−1/2 𝑞√𝑣𝑖 2𝜎 −1 𝑞 2 𝑣𝑖

variables, therefore they have prior distribution. The prior distribution for bayesian

quantile regression in (8) are:

a) Prior for 𝜷𝝉 is 𝑁(𝑏0 , 𝐵0 )

b) Prior for 𝜎 is 𝐼𝐺(𝑎, 𝑏), with IG stands for Inverse Gamma distribution.

c) Prior for 𝑣𝑖 is Exp(𝜎).

Using Box-Tiao method described in Li et al. [11], the posterior distribution is

defined as:

𝜋(𝜷𝜏 , 𝑣, 𝜎|𝒚) ∝ 𝑓(𝒚|𝜷𝜏 , 𝑣, 𝜎) 𝜋(𝜷𝜏 |𝜎, 𝑣) 𝜋(𝑣|𝜎) 𝜋(𝜎)

for differents coefficients so-called adaptive lasso formulated as:

2

𝛽̂ (𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑜) = argmin‖𝒚 − ∑𝑘𝑗=1 𝑋𝑗 𝛽𝑗 ‖ + 𝜆 ∑𝑘𝑗=1 𝑤

̂𝑗 |𝛽𝑗 |, (10)

𝛽

𝛾

with weight vector 𝑤 ̂𝑗 = 1/|𝛽̂ | , 𝛾 > 0, and 𝜆 > 0. Considering the adaptive lasso

in (10), Li et al. [11] imposed the Laplace prior distribution on parameter 𝜷:

𝜏𝜆 𝑘

𝜋(𝜷|𝜏, 𝜆) = ( 2 ) exp{−𝜏 𝜆 ∑𝑘𝑗=1 |𝛽𝑗 |}. (11)

Laplace prior (11) can be represented as a scale mixture of normal and

exponential density:

𝑤 ∞ 1 𝑡2 𝑤2 𝑤2𝑠

exp{−𝑤|𝑡|} = ∫0 exp {− } exp {− } 𝑑𝑠.

2 √2𝜋𝑠 2𝑠 2 2

∞ 1 𝛽𝑗2 𝜎 𝜎𝑠𝑗

𝜋(𝛽𝑗 |𝜎, 𝜆𝑗2 ) = ∫0 exp {− } exp {− } 𝑑𝑠𝑗 . (12)

√2𝜋𝑠𝑗 2𝑠𝑗 2𝜆2𝑗 2𝜆2𝑗

𝜃𝛿 −1−𝛿 𝜃

𝜋(𝜆𝑗2 |𝛿, 𝜃) = Γ(𝛿) (𝜆𝑗2 ) exp {− 𝜆2 }, (13)

𝑗

154

where 𝛿 > 0 and 𝜃 > 0 are hyper-parameters. Posterior density of 𝜆𝑗2 are taken

from combining (12) and (13). Shape and scale parameter for posterior invers

gamma are (1 + 𝛿) and (𝑠𝑗 ⁄2𝜎) + 𝜃, respectively. The amount of shringkage

depends on hyper-parameter 𝛿 and 𝜃.

The bayesian hierarchical model for BALQR proposed by Alhamzawi

(2012) are:

𝜋(𝛽0 ) ∝ 1

1 𝑧𝑖2

𝜋(𝑧𝑖 ) = exp (− )

√2𝜋 2

1 𝛽𝑗2 𝜎 𝜎 𝑠𝑗

𝜋(𝛽𝑗 , 𝑠𝑗 |𝜎, 𝜆𝑗2 ) = exp (− ) 2 exp (− 2 )

√2𝜋𝑠𝑗 2𝑠𝑗 2𝜆𝑗 2𝜆𝑗

𝜆𝑗2 𝜆𝑗2

𝜋(𝑠𝑗 |𝜆𝑗2 ) = exp (− 𝑠𝑗 )

2 2

𝜃𝛿 −1−𝛿 𝜃

𝜋(𝜆𝑗2 |𝛿, 𝜃) = (𝜆𝑗2 ) exp (− 2 )

Γ(𝛿) 𝜆𝑗

𝜋(𝜃, 𝛿) ∝ 𝜃 −1

𝑏

𝜋(𝜎) = 𝜎 −(𝑎+1) exp (− )

𝜎

𝑛

𝑖=1

𝑖=1

2.4. Data

The method previously described was applied to the data collected from

Sakernas 2014 in South Sulawesi province. The observations are the workers in

agriculture sector, above 15 years old, self employed, regular employee, and causal

employee (freelance). The quantile regression model in mincer equation is:

ln(𝑌) = 𝛽𝜏0 + 𝛽𝜏1 𝑋1 + 𝛽𝜏2 𝑋2 + 𝛽𝜏3 𝑋22 + 𝜀 ,

155

where 𝜀 is assumed to follows ALD. The description of response variable 𝑌 and

predictors 𝑋 are given in Table 1. The estimation parameter 𝜷𝜏 using BALQR

method was compared with the ones obtained using BQR.

TABLE 1. Variables

Variable Description

𝑌 Hourly earnings Hourly earnings from main employment

𝑋1 Years of schooling Number of year for education completed

𝑋2 Potential experience Ages minus years of schooling

Human capital theory stated that worker with more education received

more earning than less educated worker as a result of increasing productivity.

Figure 1 showed the average of Ln(hourly earning) over education level. For

primary school level or more, the average of earning are monotonically increasing.

This means the higher education level, the higher hourly earnings average.

Ln(hourly earnings) (Rp)

9,4

PS : Primary School

9,3

9,2 YS : Yunior School

9,1

9,0 SS : Senior School

8,9

HE : Higher Education

8,8

8,7

8,6

NCS PS YS SS HE

Education Level

Level

Quantile BQR BALQR

0.05 2.25899 2.26278

0.1 1.60409 1.59584

0.2 1.05954 1.05913

0.3 0.79104 0.79072

0.4 0.66990 0.67033

0.5 0.62832 0.62826

0.6 0.65764 0.65733

0.7 0.75808 0.75789

0.8 1.01032 1.00998

0.9 1.57775 1.57561

0.95 3.14460 2.62837

156

Mean square error (MSE) of BQR and BALQR models for each quantile

are presented in Table 2. The BALQR resulted in smaller MSE than BQR at all

quantile levels, except at 0.05 and 0.4 quantiles. Thus, BALQR method

outperformed BQR. The 𝛽𝜏1 is the coefficient for years of scholling variable

whereas the 𝛽𝜏2 and 𝛽𝜏3 correspond to the coefficients for experience variable and

experience squared, respectively. The estimated parameters of mincer equation

obtained by BALQR method are reported in table 3.

Figure 2. shows that the estimated quantile lines 𝐿𝑛(𝑌) = 𝛽𝜏0 + 𝛽𝜏1 𝑋1

for 𝜏 = {0.05, 0.1, … , 0.9, 0.95} that are parallel. The empirical results indicate that

the variance of error over quantile are constant (and thus for the dependent

variable). All quantile regression lines have the same slope, even for extreme

quantile (0.05 and 0.95). The slope for 0.05 quantile regeression line shows how

the earnings changes with years of schooling along the 5-th percentile of earnings

distribution at each value of years of schooling.

TABLE 3. Estimator for 𝛽𝜏 Obtained from BALQR Method

Quantile (𝜏) 𝛽𝜏1 𝛽𝜏2 𝛽𝜏3

0.05 0.035000 0.018200 -0.000037

0.10 0.032600 0.011400 0.000003

0.20 0.037300 0.013000 0.000039

0.30 0.033119 0.018551 -0.000113

0.40 0.034742 0.019255 -0.000124

0.50 0.041561 0.020516 -0.000129

0.60 0.043976 0.024809 -0.000158

0.70 0.044035 0.027832 -0.000194

0.80 0.046499 0.032658 -0.000243

0.90 0.042814 0.024264 -0.000183

0.95 0.043100 0.002080 -0.000094

0,048

0,046

0,044

0,042

Beta (tau)

0,040

0,038

0,036

0,034

0,032

0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0

Quantile (tau)

FIGURE 2. Fitted Quantile Regression Lines FIGURE 3. Plot of 𝛽𝜏1 over Quantile

return to education. Return to education varies along earnings distribution. As

ilustrated in Figure 3, there is no clear pattern for estimated coefficient of return to

education for quantile less than 0.3, the average return capture the similar

provitability of education. There is a monotone increasing pattern of the estimated

coefficient at 0.3 up to 0.8 quantile level, then it decline afterward. Changing in

pattern suggested the different policy should be done to overcome the inequality in

return to education. Figure 3 also shows that it is clear to conclude that coefficients

157

of years of scholling are higher at top of quantiles (close to one) than at bottom

quantiles (close to zero). This indicates that people with the same level of

education received different return consider to conditional earnings. In general,

workers in agricultural sectors with higher earnings received higher return to

education than the lower earnings workers.

3. Concluding Remarks

earning was studied in this paper. The mincer equation was used as a model that

can represent the relationship of these variables. The parameters in the mincer

equation was estimated by using BQR and BALQR methods. Applying these two

estimation methods to the workers from agriculture sector in South Sulawesi, the

BALQR produced better results than BQR in term of smaller MSE at most quantile

level. However, the returns to education do not monotonically increase along

earning distribution, but clearly to conclude that the returns are higher in top of

quantile of earning than in bottom of quantile. This result indicates the higher

returns for workers with higher earning than workers with lower earnings.

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Washington, (2008)

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York, (2001)

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Bayesian Analysis, 5, 1–24, (2010)

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Economic Research, New York, (1974)

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education: evidence for Indonesia, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies,

Vol. 49:2, 213-236, (2013)

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Elastic-Net, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 67(2), 301-

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159

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Estimating Unemployment Proportion Under

Complex Survey

Arip Juliyanto1,a), Heri Kuswanto2,b), Ismaini Zain3,c)

1 ,2,3

Department of Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember,

Jl. Arief Rahman Hakim, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia

a)

arip_jy@bps.go.id

b)

heri_k @statistika.its.ac.id

c)

ismaini_z @statistika.its.ac.id

Abstract. In general, surveys to estimate unemployment proportion are designed for large area.

An area is regarded as a large if the sample size is large enough to be directly estimates or design-

methods with adequate precision. However, direct design-methods are unreliable to be applied in

small area as they are based on small sample size. To carry out estimate for small area with

adequate precision, we can use the indirect-estimation such as hierarchical Bayes models. In this

paper, we compare the performance of four hierarchical bayes small area models for estimating

the proportion of unemployment based on data generated from complex survey with finite

population. Two of the models adopt the commonly Fay-Heriot models assuming known

variance, while two the other models assumed that the sampling variance was unknown. From the

study we found that the model assuming unknown variance outperforms the other and can be

considered as small area level estimation to account proportion of unemployment.

Keywords and Phrases: small area estimation, hierarchical bayes, linier model, proportion,

complex survey, unemployment.

1. Introduction

Proportion of unemployment is one of the main indicators of the region

besides economic growth. In Indonesia, proportion of unemployment obtained

from the National Labor Force Survey is designed to provide area-specific (region)

estimator (unemployment rate or proportion) with reliable precision. Therefore, if

we want to provide this indicator for subregion, the direct estimator leads to

unacceptably large standard error due to small sample in this area and the estimator

of proportion will have heavily biased. In order to overcome this problem, it is

necessary to find indirect methods that can give reliable estimators known as Small

Area Estimation method (SAE).

There are several of SAE methods often used in line with the growing

demand of small area statistics e.g Best Linier Unbiased Prediction (BLUP),

Empirical Bayes (EB) and Hierarchical Bayes (HB) estimation [3]. In general, HB

method is more superior than other methods. Ghosh and Rao [3], Arora and Lahiri

[1] or You and Chapman [14] has shown that the estimators (posterior mean) of

the HB method has smaller mean square error than BLUP method. In the other

hand, the HB method can handle more complex model such as unmatched

sampling and linking models whereas these models are difficult to do in other

methods.

160

The SAE have two types of basic small area models that have been studied

in the most literature i.e basic area level model and unit level model. Area level

models often used by researchers than unit level models, one of the reason is that

area level auxiliary information is more readily available than unit level. Many

studies have used area level model to obtain estimator of proportion. Xia, Carlin,

dan Waller [15] used HB area model for lung cancer mapping in Ohio in 1988.

Xie, Raghunathan, and Lepkowski [16] used HB area model-based on Fay Herriot

model to estimate proportion of overweight individual in America. Meanwhile,

Mohadjer, Rao, Liu, Krenzke and Kerckhove [12] used HB area model that

extended with unmatched sampling and linking model to estimate proportion of

literacy capabilities in America.

The SAE modeling in most cases assumes that the data is obtained from

the Simple Random Sampling (SRS). Event though, public data are very often

designed with the complex survey, such as stratified and two stage sampling

survey. HB area level model able to adjust model with the design survey which

data have been drawn. Liu et al. [11] or Liu and Diallo [10] in their study applied

variance adjustment based on stratified simple random sampling in HB model in

order to estimate the uncertainty sampling variances component. Ha et al. [5] have

estimated smooking rate by adjusted the HB model in order to make design survey

complex consistent.

In Section 2, we briefly describe about Small Area Estimation Method. In

this section we introduce some notation about models description and discuss some

models that often used in SAE such as Fay Herriot models an the other alternatif

models. Comparing some models criteria is presented in Section 4. The simulation

study is describe in Section 5 and the results are presented in Section 5. Conclution

of this study is found in the Section 6 about concluding remark.

2. Main Results

2.1 Model Description

Suppose 𝑦𝑖𝑗 denotes the binary response variable of interest (activity

status) for unit j in small area i. Let 𝑁𝑖 be the finite population size in area i

(i=1,2,...,m; j=1,2,...,Ni). The parameters to be estimated are small area proportions

𝑁𝑖

with 𝜃̂𝑖 = ∑𝑗=1 𝑦𝑖𝑗 ⁄𝑁𝑖 . With complex sampling design assumed, the direct

ni ni

estimator for 𝜃𝑖 is ˆ wij yij wij , where ni is the sample size (𝑛𝑖 > 0)

i

j 1 j 1

and wij is survey weight associated unit j in area i. For the survey designed by

EPSEM (Equal Probability of Selection Method), the direct estimate for proportion

ni

given by ˆiw yij ni .

j 1

variance of complex survey and simple random sampling respectively then design

effect can be expressed as Deffi Vard sgn ( i ) Var srs ( i ) . Design effect can reflect

the sample efficiency of the complex sampling design. The parameter Deff often

unknown due to the population variance of proportion is unknown, so Deff will be

estimated by deff iw .

161

Due to of small sample size, the direct estimators of proportion of small

area is very imprecise and has a large variance that can’t be ignored. The modeling

approach can address this problem. The objective of using modeling approach is to

increase the effective sample size thus increasing the precision by reducing

variance. Liu [9] said that a commonly used area level model is Fay-Herriot, which

is a two-level mixed model with the following form:

ind

Level 1 (sampling model) : ˆiw i N( i , i)

ind

Level 2 (linking model) : ˆi β , 2

v N (xi' β, 2

v) (1)

area-i. The FH model is an example of a matched model [13], because both of the

model (sampling and linking model) can be formed into a single model (linier

mixed model):

ˆ xi' β vi ei

iw

Ha et al. [5] said that for estimating small area proportions, the assumption

of normality in sampling and linking model could be unacceptable, particularly

when the true small area proportions are near to 0 or 1. Moreover, the normality

assumption doesn’t guarantee the support between 0 and 1 for posterior distribution

of 𝜃𝑖 . Liu et al [11] proposed using logit for linking model to ensure the range of

posterior of 𝜃𝑖 always falls within range (0,1).

ind

Level 1 (sampling model) : ˆiw i N( i , i)

ind

2

Level 2 (linking model) : logit ( i ) β , v N (xi' β, 2

v) (2)

According to Liu et al [11], both of the FH model (1) and NL model (2)

have main problem that is about assumption of known variance. In practice,

sampling variance is unknown so have to be estimated. If we use the direct

approach to get the estimate of variance, the estimate is very imprice and unstable

when the sample size is very small. Some of alternatives to approximate estimate

of variance are the syntetic variance estimator, Generalized Variance Function

(GVF), domain census variance. In this study we use cencus domain (region)

variance that proposed by Ha et al. [5].

To implement explanation above about sampling variance estimate, we

applied the equations of variance as:

i i (1 i) ni Deffi ,

With the estimator of variance given by

ˆi ˆrgn (1 ˆrgn ) n deff

j (i ) j (i ) i iw

j (i ) ) varsrs ( j (i ) )

162

Where deff iw is a estimator of Deffi . Assuming deff iw as a estimator of Deffi

implied that the estimate of the true design effect for all subregions are similar.

Assumption of known variance in FH model (1) and NL model (2) need

additional procedures to adress this problem mentioned previously. Liu et al. [11]

and Ha et al. [5] consider the NLrs (3) and BLrs (4) method in order to adjust this

problem. NLrs and BLrs method treat the i as unknown parameter in HB model.

Model 3: (Normal-logistic random sampling variance: NLrs)

ind

Level 1 (sampling model) : ˆiw i N( i , i)

ind

2

Level 2 (linking model) : logit ( i ) β , v N (xi' β, 2

v) (3)

assumption of beta distribution for sampling model can be used to change the

normality. Adapting of this assumption initially considered by Jiang and lahiri [7].

The beta distribution is chosen because it can cover a rich class of distribution,

including asymetris distribution. Furthermore, beta distribution has the desirable

property of range restriction to (0,1). Hawala and Lahiri [6] used model 4 to

estimate poverty rate compared FH model (1).

Model 4: (Beta-Logistic random sampling variance: BLrs)

ind

Level 1 (sampling model) : ˆiw i beta(ai , bi )

ind

2

Level 2 (linking model) : logit ( i ) β , v N (xi' β, 2

v) (4)

Liu, et al. [15] for both model 3 and model 4 considered approximation to

estimate variance function by used i i (1 i ) ni deffiw . The parameter 𝑎𝑖 and

𝑏𝑖 in model 4 are given by

ai i ni deffiw 1 , and bi (1 i) ni deffiw 1

In order to get some estimators from four models above, we can use the

Metropolis-Hasting (MH) algorithm within Gibbs sampler in MCMC method. MH

algorithm will be applied due to three models (model 2,3 and 4) have non-closed

form distribution of conditional distribution especially for parameter proportion.

Drawing ramdom samples in MCMC based on the full conditional distributions of

unknown parameter with certain initial values.

One of the procedure to compare some models from bayesian model is

through the DIC (Deviance Information Criterion) measure. The model with

smaller value of DIC suggesting a better-fitting model. This measure uses the

deviance is defined as

i i

D y, 2log p y

i

Where p y is the likelihood of the data and are the parameters of

the model. Thus the DIC measure depend on both of data and parameter. A point

163

estimator which is used to estimate is D ˆ y D y, ˆ y derived from

simulations computing. The average posterior distribution is given by

1 n

D y E D y, y , that be estimated with Dˆ y D y, i

ni1

Another important procedure in DIC procedure is about effective number

of parameter defined as pD Dˆ y D y . So as finally the DIC measure is

ˆ

formed as

DIC 2Dˆ y D ˆ y

Congdon [2] said that despite the model have smaller DIC value, it doesn’t

automatically mean that the model is better than others especially if the model fails

to estimate true parameters, in other word the model can’t yield the precise

estimator for the true parameters. Liu [9] considered methods to compare models

with bias statistics. The following bias statistic can be used to compare some

models are Overal Average Bias (OAB), Overal Average Absolut Deviation

(OAAD) dan Average Absolute Relative (OAARD). The three statistics bias can be

defined as:

m R

1 ˆr

OAB i i

mR i 1 r 1

m R

1 ˆr

OAAD i i

mR i 1 r 1

m R ˆr

1 i i

OAARD

mR i 1 r 1 i

where ˆir is the estimate of 𝜃𝑖 for each subregion on rth sample, and R is a number

of replication (set of data) and m is number of subregion. Models with smaller

value of this statistics (OAB, OAAD, and OAARD) is considered as the better

models. This criteria is only can be done within simulation data, because if using

survey data to estimate some parameter the true value of the parameter is

unavailable.

This section will describes simple simulation study based on real data to

compare the performance of the four model HB (FH, NL, NLrs, BLrs) in order to

estimate unemployment proportion. First, we describe about sampling method in

which the data have been drawn and then use them as an input in four HB

modeling processes.

The sampling frame used to draw samples is obtained from population

census 2010 in Riau Province especially coastal region (Bengkalis, Meranti, and

Indragiri Hilir regency). The total finite population of three region is restricted only

for labor force status, contain 595,836 record. The parameter interest that will be

estimated is proportion of unemployment in each subregion.

In each region as census domain, we drawn samples using two stage sample

design. The first stage is to select samples (census block) without replacement

164

using probability proportional to size (PPS), with size the number of household. In

the second stage, 10 households were selected from each chosen census block. This

sampling process was repeated ten times so that we have 10 set of independent

data. For simplicity, this simulation only use independent variable without some

covariates.

Each of set data was used as an input in simulation to obtain some

estimators of parameter interest. Simulation were done using OpenBugs and R

sofware, Brugs package was used to run OpenBugs in R. We used Metropolis-

Hasting (MH) algoritm within Gibbs sampler. This algoritma drawn samples based

on full conditional distribution with certain initial values. For first model (FH) wet

set run of 20,000 iteration lenght with burn in at 10,000. Meanwhile, for the other

model setting iteration lenght in 50,000 with burn in at 10,000 and thined 15 used

to reduce autocorrelation of the samples. The difference of lenght of iteration due

to depend on complexity of the model to realize convergence.

2.4. Results

This section discusses the report result of simulation designed above. In

Figure 1 depicts of plot the average of four HB (FH, NL, NLrs dan BLrs) estimate

in estimating unemployment proportion against subregion ordered by average of

number samples. The true parameter of proportion appears to be more fluctuate

than the estimated value using four HB models especially for small sample size.

For larger sample size the fluctuation of the parameter decreases and appear to be

similar for all models. This condition is also appear if we look at Figure 2.

0.25 Variable

true P

FH

NL

0.20 NLrs

BLrs

Y-Data

0.1 5

0.1 0

0.05

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

subreg

proportion against subregion ordered by number samples.

Figure 2 shows plotting residual against subregion ordered number samples.

Four HB estimate appear fluctuate around the null value. In line with the increasing

number of samples, error values also getting smaller for all HB models. This

condition happened due to the covariate or predictor variabels not to be included in

HB model so that the posterior estimator only depent on value of direct estimation

(direct proportion from samples chosen). By including the covariate variable, the

HB models can estimate proportion more precisely.

165

FIGURE 2. Comparison of average residual of HB models against subregion

ordered by number samples ( residual defined as Pi piHB )

Furthermore, we can compare HB models by using standard technique such

as DIC and bias statistics. Based on DIC measure, Table 1 shows that the model

FH and NL appear to be similar value, then NLrs model shown marginally better

than both models previously with smaller DIC value. From this table shown that

BLrs model has the smallest DIC. According to this measurement, BLrs model

suggested to be the best models.

However, with bias criteria the differences of four model is hard to be

concluded because the value of OAAD and OAARD are very similar. In other

hand, the OAB values appear to be in line with the DIC measurement to confirm

BLrs as the best model. Nevertheles, according to OAARD values, all of models

shown the value around thirty percent. Thus it can be indication that the four

models excluded covariate variable is not appropriate enough to estimate subregion

proportion, so addition of covariat variable is needed.

Overal Average Absolut Deviation (OAAD) dan Average Absolute Relative

(OAARD)

FH -70.2460 -0.0036 0.0322 0.3274

NL -71.1820 -0.0035 0.0331 0.3420

NLrs -76.5740 -0.0057 0.0343 0.3414

BLrs -95.1580 -0.0023 0.0327 0.3316

3. Concluding Remarks

From the description on the section 5 can be concluded that by using of HB

models we can estimate unemployment proportion in small area (subregion). BLrs

model shown better performance than others from DIC criterion and overal average

bias (OAB). However, based on plotting average of HB estimation (estimate of

proportion) and residuals, the four models shown similar performance. From this

study we found that model HB without covariate variable give not strong

appropriate enough for small area estimation. In future, we very recommended to

add some covariate variables to the linking model in order to increase the precision

of estimation. Furthermore, we can try use different prior to analyze sensitifity of

166

model. Addapting some distribution (non-normality) to random effect area model

is also recommended to enrich small area modeling.

References

[1] V. Arora and P. Lahiri, On the superiority of the Bayesian method over

BLUP in small area estimations problems, Statistical Sinica, vol. 7, pp.

1053-1063, (1997)

[2] P.D. Congdon, Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods, CRC Press, Boca

Raton, (2010)

[3] M. Ghosh and J.N.K. Rao, Small area estimation: an appraisal, Statististical

Science, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, vol. 9, pp. 55-76, (1994)

[4] N.S. Ha, Hierarchical Bayes Estimation of Small Area Means Using Complex

Survey Data, Ph.D Thesis, University of Maryland, (2013)

[5] N.S.Ha, P. Lahiri, and V. Parsons, Methods and Results for Small Area

Estimation using Smoking Data from The 2008 Nasional Health Interview

Survey, Statistics in Medicine, vol. 33, pp. 3932-3945, (2014)

[6] S. Hawala and P. Lahiri, A Hierarchical Bayes Estimation of Poverty Rates,

Proceedings of American Statistical Association, Section on Survey Research

Methods, Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association, Fortcoming,

(2012)

[7] J.Jiang and P. Lahiri, Mixed Model Prediction and Small Area Estimation,

Test, vol. 15, 1, pp. 1-96, (2006)

[8] L. Kish, Survey sampling, Jhon Wiley, New York, (1965)

[9] B. Liu, Hierarchical Bayes Estimation and Empirical Best Prediction of

Small Area Proportions, Ph.D Thesis, University of Maryland, (2009)

[10] B. Liu and M. Diallo, Parametric Bootstrap Confident Intervals for Survey-

Weighted Small Area Proportion, Proceedings of the American Statistical

Association, Section on Survey Research Methods, VA: American Statistical

Association, Fortcoming, pp. 109-121, (2013)

Weighted Small Area Proportions, Proceedings of the American Statistical

Association, Section on Survey Research Methods, Alexandria, VA:

American Statistical Association, Fortcoming , pp. 3181-3186, (2007)

[12] L. Mohadjer, J.N.K. Rao, B. Liu, T. Krenzke, and W. Van de Kerckhove,

Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimates of Adult Literacy using Unmatched

Sampling and Linking Models, Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural

Statistics, vol. 66, pp. 55-63, (2012)

[13] Y. You and J.N.K. Rao, Small Area Estimation Using Unmatched Sampling

and Linking Models, Canadian Journal of Statistics, vol. 30, pp. 3-15,

(2002)

[14] Y. You and B. Chapman, Small Area Estimation Using Area Level Models

and Estimated Sampling Variances, Survey Methodology, vol. 32, pp. 97-

103, (2006)

167

[15] H. Xia, B.P. Carlin, and L.A. Waller, Hierarchical Models for Mapping

Ohio Lung Cancer Rate, Research Report 95-011, Division of Biostatistics,

University of Minnesota, (1995)

[16] D. Xie, T.E. Raghunathan, and J.M. Lpkowski, Estimation of The

Proportion of Overweight Individuals in Small Areas-a robust extension of

The Fay-Herriot Model, Statistics In Medicine, vol. 26, pp. 2699-2715,

(2006)

168

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Papua

Agustin Riyanti1,a), Vita Ratnasari2,b), Santi Puteri Rahayu3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Statistics, Institute of Techonolgy Sepuluh Nopember (ITS) Surabaya

a)

justafity@gmail.com

b)

vitaratna70@gmail.com

c)

santi_pr@statistika.its.ac.id

Abstract. The problem of food insecurity is a multidimensional issue that requires a complex

analysis and should receive serious attention. The method that used to analyze multiple

dimensions with many variables is Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). SEM is a method that

has an ability to resolve complicated problems which estimate the relationship between multi

related variables with the output from the measurement model and the structural model. The

Partial Least Squares (PLS) approach to SEM offers an alternative to covariance based SEM,

which is especially when data is not normally distributed. PLS- called as soft modeling technique

with minimum demands regarding measurement scales, sample sizes and residual distribution. In

this paper, PLS is used to determine the variables that significant on food insecurity in Papua and

Papua Barat. There are four latent variables, namely food insecurity, food access, food

availability, and food utilization. The result showed that food access significantly affects to food

availability and food utilization, food availability has a significant affect to food utilization.

However, food access, food utilization, and food availability does not significantly affect to food

insecurity in Papua and Papua Barat.

Keywords and Phrases: Food insecurity, Structural Equation Modeling, Partial Least Square

1. Introduction

Food is human basic necessity. Its fulfillment becomes economic as well

as social investment to have better generation in the future. Food security is one of

the government priorities. The problem of food security is food insecurity. Food

insecurity is a multidimensional issue which needs a complex analysis more than

food production and food availability. The complexity of food security can be

simplified by focusing on three dimension namely food availability, food access,

and food utilization. In Indonesia, Priyanto [1] using partial least square logistic

regression to analized food security in districts of The Borneo Island, Kastanja [2]

modeling the status of the risk of food insecurity in the provinces of Papua and

Papua Barat with SEM-PLS Spatial.

Food Security Council (DKP) [3] conducted an analysis of food security

using three aspects of food security using principal component analysis. While

abroad, Migoto, Davis, Carletto, and Beegle [4] used multivariate regression

analysis to measure food security using respondent’s perceptions of the adequacy

of food consumption. Khasnobis and Hazakira [5] states that the status of women

affects the child food security in Pakistan. Dutta and Gundersen [6] observed that

the variables that influence food security is income, children under the age of 6

years. Rahim, Saeed, and Rasool [7] in research on factors that affect household

169

food insecurity in parts of Northwestern Iran stated that the factors affecting food

insecurity is the distance from the city, the food supply, the number of household

members, and the Average income per capita. Lovendal and Knowles [8]

conducted a study on a framework for analyzing vulnerability to food security

using three-dimensional studies in food security, namely: food availability, food

access and food utilization. The objective of this paper is to determine the

variables that significantly affect to food insecurity in Papua and Papua Barat.

Hair, Black, Babin, and Anderson [9] explain that Structural Equation

Modeling is a statistical model to explain the relationships among multiple

variables. SEM has an ability to represent unobserved variables in these

relationships and account for measurement error in the estimation process. The

most common SEM estimation procedure is maximum likelihood estimation

(MLE). MLE provides a valid and stable result under ideal condition. Model

complexity leads to the need for large sample. MLE is more efficient and unbiased

when the assumption of multivariate normality is fulfilled. One of the

developments of SEM is Partial Least Square (PLS). Wold [10] introduced PLS

using NIPALS (Nonlinear Iterative Partial Least Squares) algorithm. Whereas

SEM estimates model in order to discrepancy between the estimated and sample

covariance matrices is minimized, PLS explained variance of the endogenous

variable is maximized by estimating the partial model relationship in iterative

sequence of ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions. Thus, PLS scores are

estimated as exact linear combinations of their associated manifest variables and

treats them as error-free substitutes for the manifest variables. Whereas SEM

requires distributional assumptions, PLS is less rigid distributional assumptions on

the data. PLS is referred to as soft modeling technique with minimum demands

regarding measurement scales, sample sizes and residual distribution. In this study,

used three latent variables to predicted food insecurity. Three latent variables are

food availability, food access, and food utilization.

Partial Least Square includes the measurement model (outer models) and

the structural model (inner model). Inner model describing the relationship

between latent variables. General equation of the structural model:

𝜂 = 𝐵𝜂 + 𝛤𝜉 + 𝜁

Where:

𝜂 :Vector of endogenous variables in the inner model

𝐵 : Path coefficient matrix of endogenous variables in the inner model

𝛤 : Path coefficient matrix of exogenous variables in the inner model

𝜉 : Vector of exogenous variables in the inner model

𝜁 : Random vector of residuals in the inner model

Outer model defines the relation between the latent variables and the

observed indicator or manifest variables. General equation of the outer model:

𝑥 = Ʌ𝑥 𝜉 + 𝛿

𝑦 = Ʌ𝑦 𝜂 + 𝜀

170

Where:

𝑥 : Vector of exogenous latent variables

𝑦 : Vector of endogenous latent variables

Ʌ𝑥 : Loading factor matrix of exogenous latent variables

Ʌ𝑦 : Loading factor matrix of endogenous latent variables

𝛿 : Error in the measurement model in exogenous variables

𝜀 : Error in the measurement model in endogenous variables

Data that used in this study are secondary data. Data collected from

National Socio-Economic Survey 2013, Village Potential Data Collection, Health

Research 2013, Papua and Papua Barat in figure 2014.

Indicators used in food availability are normative consumption to net per-

capita production ratio and percentage of food crop production in Gross domestic

product. Food access uses indicators percentage of people living below the poverty

line, percentage of villages with inadequate transport connections, and percentage

of households without access to electricity. Indicators food utilization are

percentage of female illiteracy, percentage of households without access to clean

and safe drinking water, child stunting, life expectancy at birth, percentage of food

expenditure per capita. Food insecurity used indicators percentage of damage area,

percentage of forest area, and percentage of floods area.

per capita production ratio, (X2) percentage of food crop production in Gross

domestic product, (X3) percentage of people living below the poverty line, (X4)

percentage of villages with inadequate transport connections, (X5) percentage of

households without access to electricity, (X6) percentage of female illiteracy, (X7)

percentage of households without access to clean and safe drinking water, (X 8)

child stunting, (X9) life expectancy at birth, (X10) percentage of food expenditure

per capita, (Y1) percentage of forest area, (Y2) percentage of floods area, and (Y3)

percentage of damage area .

171

2. Main Results

The result of Partial Least Square includes the measurement model and the

structural model. The measurement model defines the relation between the latent

variables and the observed indicator or manifest variables. Fig 2. shows that X8 and

X9 not valid indicators in food utilization, Y3 and Y1 are not valid indicators in food

insecurity.

In the next step, X8 and X9 exclude from food utilization, Y1 and Y3 exclude from

food insecurity. The result after excludes X8, X9, Y1 and Y3 shown in fig 3.

excluded

The measurement model defines the relation between the latent variables

and the observed indicator or manifest variables. This analysis carried out with

reference to reliability and validity attributes.

In order to check whether the indicators of each construct measure are

supposed to measure, test of convergent and discriminant validity is required. In

terms of convergent validity, both indicator reliability and construct reliability were

assessed. Indicator reliability was examined by looking at the construct loading.

172

Construct reliability and validity was tested using two indices: the composite

reliability (CR) and Average Variance Extracted (AVE). All the estimated indicate

were above the threshold of 0,6 for CR and 0,5 for AVE. in table 1. showed that

value AVE >0,5 and CR > 0,6.

AVE Composite Reliability

food access 0.741057 0.894997

food availability 0.721600 0.837688

food utilization 0.816105 0.930061

cross-loadings. There are obtained by correlating the component scores of each

latent variable with both their respective block of indicators and all other items that

are included in the model. In tables 2 the crosses loading are presented.

Food insecurity food access food availability food utilization

X10 -0.181215 0.663985 0.511424 0.865599

X2 -0.256778 0.719910 0.904092 0.784855

X3 -0.175926 0.784613 0.612091 0.662238

X4 -0.350970 0.830885 0.591740 0.636992

X5 -0.273017 0.957697 0.753254 0.892197

X6 -0.277819 0.835641 0.851063 0.901872

X7 -0.190177 0.806628 0.657498 0.941106

Y2 1.000.000 -0.308724 -0.291647 -0.244238

The structural model includes the relations between the latent or

unobserved. The structural model is assessed according to the meaningfulness and

significance of the hypothesized relationships between the latent variables. Test of

the structural model are: the mount of variance explained, the significance of the

relationship, and the model’s predictive relevance.

Since the primary objective of PLS is prediction, the goodness of a

theoretical model is established by the strength of each structural path and

combined predictive (R2) of its exogenous constructs. Falk and Miller [12] suggest

that the variance explained for endogenous variables should be greater than 0,1.

The variance explained for each dependent construct is shown in table 3.

173

TABLE 3. Variance Explained

Dependent construct R Square

food availability 0.582176

food utilization 0.766080

considered satisfactory, taking into account the complexity of the model. Path

coefficient indicates the level of significance in hypothesis testing. Score path

coefficients indicated by the value of T-statistic (t > 1,96).

Original Sample Standard Standard T Statistics

Sample (O) Mean (M) Deviation Error (|O/STERR|)

(STDEV) (STERR)

-0.306953 -0.308411 0.320472 0.320472 0.957815

insecurity

0.763004 0.770126 0.049572 0.049572 15.391.915

availability

0.663852 0.663002 0.090165 0.090165 7.362.601

utilization

-0.173107 -0.177929 0.262116 0.262116 0.660423

Food insecurity

0.256331 0.260955 0.095510 0.095510 2.683.807

food utilization

0.151624 0.158930 0.256314 0.256314 0.591554

Food insecurity

Table 4 shows the significant paths. Food access has a significant effect to food

availability and food utilization. Food availability has a significant effect to food

utilization. In this study, food availability, food access, and food utilization does not

significantly affect to food insecurity.

3. Concluding Remarks

The results of this study indicate that food access has a significant effect to

food availability and food utilization. Food availability has a significant effect to

food utilization. However, food availability, food access, and food utilization does not

significantly affect to food insecurity. Valid manifest indicators for food availability

are normative consumption to net per capita production ratio and percentage of

food crop production in Gross domestic product. Valid manifest indicators for food

access are percentage of people living below the poverty line, percentage of

villages with inadequate transport connections, and percentage of households

without access to electricity. Valid manifest indicators for food utilization are

percentage of female illiteracy, percentage of households without access to clean

174

and safe drinking water, and percentage of food expenditure per capita. Child

stunting and life expectancy at birth are not valid indicators for food utilization.

Valid manifest indicators for food insecurity is percentage of floods area.

References

[1] E. Priyanto, Partial Least Squares Logistic Regression Case Study-

Food Security Data of Districts in The Island of Borneo, Thesis,

Institute of Technology Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, (2011)

[2] L.I. Kastanja, Variance Based Spatial Structural Equation Modeling

(Spatial SEM-PLS) of Food Risk Vulnerability in Papua and West

Papua Province, Thesis, Institute of Technology Sepuluh Nopember,

Surabaya., (2014)

[3] Food Security Council and World Food Programme, A Food Security

and Vulnerability Atlas of Indonesia 2009, Food Security Council,

Jakarta, (2009)

[4] M. Migotto, B. Davis, C. Carletto, and K. Beegle, Measuring Food

Security Using Respondents’ Perception of Food Consumtion

Adequacy, in Food Security : Indicator, Measurement, and The

Impact of Trade Openness, eds. Khasnobis, B.G., Acharya, S.S., and

Davis, B., New York, page. 13-41., (2007)

[5] B.G. Kasnobis, Women’s Status and Children’s Food Security in

Pakistan, in Food Security : Indicator, Measurement, and The Impact

of Trade Openness, eds. Khasnobis, B.G., Acharya, S.S., and Davis,

B., New York, page. 95-108., (2007)

[6] I. Dutta and C. Gundersen, Measures of Food Insecurity at the

Household Level, in Food Security: Indicator, Measurement, and The

Impact of Trade Openness, eds. Khasnobis, B.G., Acharya, S.S., and

Davis, B., New York, page. 42-61, (2007)

[7] S. Rahim, D. Saeed, G.A. Rasool, and G. Saeed, Factors Influencing

Household Food Security Status, Food and Nutrition Sciences, Vol.

2, No. 1, page. 31-34, (2011)

[8] C.M. Lovendal and M. Knowles, Tomorrow’s Hunger : A frame for

Analysing Vulnerability to Food Security, in Food Security :

Indicator, Measurement, and The Impact of Trade Openness, eds.

Khasnobis, B.G., Acharya, S.S., and Davis, B., New York, page. 62-

94, (2007)

[9] J.F. Hair, W.C. Black, B.J. Babin, and R.E. Anderson, Multivariate

Data Analysis (6th ed), Upper Saddle River: Pearson, (2006)

[10] H. Wold, Partial Least Square, in Encyclopedia of Statistical, eds.

Kotz, S., dan Johnson, N. L., New York , page. 581-591, (1985)

[11] W. W. Chin and P. R. Newsted, Structural equation modeling:

analysis with small samples using partial least squares, in Statistical

strategies for small sample research, eds. Hoyle, R., Tousana Oaks,

page. 307-341, (1999)

[12] R. F. Falk and N.B. Miller, A primer for soft modeling, Ohio: The

University of Akron Press, (1992)

175

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

Value Using ARIMA and Neural Network

Eunike W. Parameswari1,a), Brodjol S.S Ulama2,b), Suhartono3,c)

1,2,3

Department of Statistics, Institute of Technology Sepuluh Nopember (ITS)

a)

eunike@bps.go.id

b)

brodjol.su@gmail.com

c)

suhartono@statistika.its.ac.id

Abstract. The increasing of the export performance has a direct impact on economic growth. It

means export plays an important role in economic growth. The availability of the current export

data becomes a challenge to apply an effective forecasting method. Neural networks have shown

great ability in modeling and forecasting nonlinear and non-stationary time series. This paper

compares linear stochastic models (ARIMA) and Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) for

Indonesia’s fishery export. FFNN is the most commonly used Neural Network (NN) architecture

in many fields of application. Empirical results indicated that utilizing a Feed Forward Neural

Network (FFNN) outperforms ARIMA models in terms of forecasting accuracy. This paper also

reports empirical evidence that a neural network model is applicable to the prediction of export

value.

Keywords and Phrases: Export, ARIMA, Neural Network, Feed Forward Neural Network

1. Introduction

In the era of globalization, international trade allows people to produce the

best products and consume a variety of goods and services produced worldwide.

For a country, international trade plays an important role in improving living

standards and enabling each country to specialize in producing goods and services

that have a comparative advantage. One of the indicators to watch the increase in

international trade is to look at export growth. The export value at a time has a

tendency to depend on an earlier time. Forecasting methods of export data was

developed and is still an interesting issue. In Indonesia, Triyanto [1] had predicted

Indonesia’s export value in period of July 2011-June 2012 using a hybrid method

ARIMA-Neural Network. Previously, Wienarti [2] also foresee export value of

Central Java with exponential smoothing method. Barus [3] and Ruslan, Harahap,

Sembiring [4] also forecasting in North Sumatra’s export value in period of

November 2012 to October 2014. While abroad, forecasting in export value has

also been developed, including in Thomson [5] in New Zealand, Kargbo [6] in

South Africa, Stoevsky [7] in Bulgary, Mehmood [8] in Pakistan, Arumugam dan

Anithakumari [9] in Taiwan, Zhang and Zhao [10] in Ningbo, Tahir [11] in

Pakistan, also Sen, Sabur, Islam, and Nature [12] in Bangladesh. The aims of this

paper are twofold: (1) to examine the network architecture of NN in forecasting

fishery exports from Indonesia and (2) to evaluate how ARIMA and FFNN

compared in predicting the unseen future.

176

1.1 Forecasting

At first, forecasting methods dominated by linear method. Linear methods

are relatively easily developed and implemented. However, the linear method

cannot capture non-linear relationships that are often found in real conditions. In

general, modeling of time series analysis divided into two classifications,

univariate and multivariate. Univariate time series analysis is more proper used to

model data in which the cause of the fluctuations are difficult to know, as macro

economy data, especially export value. This analysis has the advantages that it can

only use variables whose behavior will be investigated, without need to look for

other variables that influence the data (Makridakis et al. [13]). Yule [14] introduced

a model of auto regression (AR) and started develop statistical modeling of linear

time series, especially linear model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

(ARIMA). Nonlinear time series analysis describes the nonlinear relationship

between variables and multiple testing procedure to detect the nonlinear

relationship.

1.2 ARIMA

Time Series ARIMA model was proposed by Box- Jenkins in 1970, the

model examined each variable by using auto regression, AR(p) and Moving

Average (q) to investigate the historical data and economic fluctuations. The

algorithm is to be had as follows.

1) Data Interpretation: The first step in developing a Box-Jenkins model is to

decide if the series is stationary and if there is any significant seasonality that needs

to be modeled. The autocorrelation functions (ACF) are used to define the

distribution of sample data.

2) Model Identification: Identifying the phase of the series by using autocorrelation

function (ACF and partial autocorrelation function (PACF).

3) Inference: The conditional likelihood and exact likelihood are used to estimate

the parameters.

4) Diagnostic Checking: The process of diagnostic check involves testing the

assumptions of the model to identify any areas where the model is inadequate. The

statistical identification process includes whether the parameter achieves statistical

significance or multi collinearity and whether the residual term is white noise or

not. If the model is found to be insufficient, it is necessary to remedy and repeat

step (4) until a better model is identified.

ARIMA models in the back shift notation according to Makridakis, et al.

[13] can be expressed mathematically as follows:

(1 − 𝜙1 𝐵 − 𝜙2 𝐵 2 − ⋯ − 𝜙𝑝 𝐵 𝑝 )(1 − 𝐵)𝑑 𝑌𝑡 = (1 − 𝜃1 𝐵 − 𝜃2 𝐵 2 − ⋯ −

𝜃𝑞 𝐵 𝑞 )𝑒𝑡 (1)

can be interpreted as a time series that follows the process of AR(p), MA(q), and

become stationary after d-difference. The process of data transformation can be

done to overcome the problem of not stationary in variance time series. The

transformation model that is often used is the Box-Cox transformation. (Wei,

[16]):

177

𝑌𝑡 𝜆 −1

𝑇(𝑌𝑡 ) = 𝑌𝑡 (𝜆) = 𝜆

(2)

𝑌𝑡𝜆 −1

lim 𝑇(𝑌𝑡 ) = lim 𝑌𝑡 (𝜆) = lim (3)

𝜆→0 𝜆→0 𝜆→0 𝜆

Neural Network (NN) is a method that is currently progressing rapidly. In

recent decades, NN had shown great ability in modelling and forecasting nonlinear

and non-stationary time series in economic data due to their innate nonlinear

property and flexibility for modelling. NN is often regarded as a universal

approach to data without requiring statistical assumptions. Some of the advantages

of NN are: (1) They are able to recognize the relation between the input and output

variables without explicit physical considerations. (2) They work well even when

the training sets contain noise and measurement errors. (3) They are able to adapt

to solutions over time to compensate for changing circumstances. (4) They possess

other inherent information-processing characteristics and once trained are easy to

use.

NN working mechanism mimics the workings of biologic neural networks.

Imitating biologic neural networks, NN composed of nerve cells (neurons) that

interconnected and operated in parallel. Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) is

one form of very flexible NN models that used in various applications. In getting

FFNN appropriate model (optimal architecture) is necessary to determine the right

combination between the number of input variables and the number of units in the

hidden layer. Feed forward neural networks are one of the neural networks'

architecture structure types. This structure is basically given in Fig. 1. The

architecture consists of three parts such as input, hidden, and output layers. Each

layer consists of neurons. These neurons linked each other by weights.

Hidden Layer

Output Layer

Input Layer

FIGURE 1. Multilayer feed forward neural networks with one output neuron

178

2. Main Results

The data set consists of observations for real exports value of fishery. The

data set, obtained from Statistics Indonesia database, is monthly and covers the

periods January 1999-July 2015. This data set divided into two subsets, one

training data subset from January 1999 to December 2013 and one validation data

subset from January 2014 to July 2015.

In the first stage, an ARIMA model developed using the training subset.

Fig. 2 shows clearly that the data sets have trend patterns; hence the assumption of

stationary condition in the mean is not satisfied. Nevertheless, we validate this

assumption of stationary condition using Box-Cox Transformation. The results

showed that. Next, the time-series properties of the data examined using unit-root

tests, the augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF) test for the null hypothesis of non-

stationary. The unit root tests results (see Table 1) suggests that the variables

integrated of order one. This implies the possibility of cointegrating relationships.

Fig. 3 shows the data has been de-trended and de-seasonal after transformation and

differencing for the both non-seasonal and seasonal orders.

300000000

250000000

200000000

150000000

100000000

0,00002

0,00001

0,00000

-0,00001

-0,00002

-0,00003

1 18 36 54 72 90 108 126 144 162 180

FIGURE 3. Time series plot of Fishery export value (US$) after data

transformation and differencing

179

TABLE 1. ADF Test for unit root

ADF test

Significance t - statistic

statistic

Levels 1% level -3.467.851 -0.096520

5% level -2.877.919

10% level -2.575.581

1st 1% level -3.467.851 -11.19859 Reject Null

difference Hypotheses

5% level -2.877.919

10% level -2.575.581

autocorrelation (b) in order to identify the model and took a few possible models.

The best model was chosen among these competitive models base on the smallest

RMSE value. The model parameters were evaluated by using maximum likelihood

estimation. Models with insignificant parameters (exclude constant) were

eliminated. Remaining models then proceed to the diagnostic checking step to see

whether the models adequate by using Ljung-Box statistics. The p-value for the

Ljung–box statistic was 0.9564, and therefore, it can be stated that the data in the

residuals was independently distributed or, in other words, that the residuals from

the ARIMA model have no correlation.

a 1,0 b 1,0

) 0,8 ) 0,8

0,6 0,6

Partial Autocorrelation

0,4 0,4

Autocorrelation

0,2 0,2

0,0 0,0

-0,2 -0,2

-0,4 -0,4

-0,6 -0,6

-0,8 -0,8

-1,0 -1,0

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Lag Lag

function variable

According to RMSE value, the best ARIMA model is ARIMA (1, 1, 0). Therefore,

the models to forecast fishery export value after taking parameter estimation are

following the below equation:

𝑍̂𝑡 = 0,6042 𝑍𝑡−1 + 0,3958 𝑍𝑡−2 + 𝑎𝑡

number of hidden nodes, the learning rate h, and the initial weights. Input selection

in FFNN method for forecasting fishery export will use a significant lag in the

pattern of PACF. Forecasting on fishery's export used input variable in the period

(t-1), (t-2), (t-3), and (t-9).

180

As discussed previously, there is no theory yet to tell how many hidden

units are needed to approximate any given function. The network geometry is a

problem dependent. Here, we use the three-layer FFNN with one hidden layer (Fig.

1) and the common trial-and-error method to select the number of hidden nodes.

The model structure can be represented by the notation FFNN(N, M, m), where N is

the number of input nodes, M the number of hidden nodes and m the number of

nodes in the output layer. In this study, the four input variables used in the ARIMA

model constitute the network inputs. To identify an appropriate FFNN model, M is

varied over the range 1-20 and for each model, the fit to the calibration and

validation data set is evaluated, respectively, using the root mean square error

(RMSE). The optimum number of hidden nodes for the FNN with LMBP is M =

19. Therefore, the FFNN(4, 19, 1) is chosen. Here it is found that for a short-time

(monthly) forecast, there is no significant advantage to select a precise network

structure for each forecast lead time. However, it may be appropriate to use a

specific network structure for each forecast lead time. The criterion used in this

back-propagation FFNN in order to measure the proximity of the neural network

prediction to its target was the least mean squares, while the activation function of

the output layer is pure linear function (Haykin, [15]). The training method

employed was adaptive gradient descent. The selected model was chosen as the

one with the lowest RMSE value of all those trained and validated using a design

of experiment's methodology. All models were trained using a maximum number

of 10.000 epochs in case the convergence criteria were not achieved before. Table

2 shows the forecast value for ARIMA models and FFNN.

TABLE 2. Forecast Results of Fishery Export Value using ARIMA and FFNN

Period Actual ARIMA FFNN

2014 JAN 237,010,432 252,233,786 228,381,190.47

FEB 235,411,214 251,836,124 228,587,306.07

MAR 247,547,514 251,993,401 228,628,074.80

APR 245,221,787 251,931,135 228,702,806.18

MAY 240,988,844 251,955,777 229,044,100.63

JUN 251,513,759 251,946,023 228,622,084.15

JUL 251,291,564 251,949,884 228,498,529.76

AUG 249,186,857 251,948,356 228,756,105.23

SEP 291,023,894 251,948,960 228,676,831.61

OCT 294,267,111 251,948,721 228,834,016.02

NOV 275,559,372 251,948,816 229,089,831.43

DEC 274,738,452 251,948,778 228,680,232.24

2015 JAN 227,095,608 251,948,793 228,561,609.23

FEB 203,291,348 251,948,787 228,596,728.03

MAR 236,593,502 251,948,790 228,243,074.43

APR 236,626,141 251,948,789 228,578,378.22

MAY 215,590,608 251,948,789 228,952,802.11

JUN 215,575,527 251,948,789 228,467,562.44

JUL 179,710,060 251,948,789 228,341,426.09

3. Concluding Remarks

According to the empirical results of the present research with Indonesia’s

fishery export value, it can be stated that the performance level of ARIMA is good

enough in terms of forecasting. Nevertheless, in those cases in which the

computational capability is not a problem, and the data analysis will be performed

as a black box for the ﬁnal user of the forecasting system, authors recommend the

use of neural network's models, especially combining hybrid models that are able

to take full advantage of ARIMA models and creating models that combine

intelligence artificial techniques.

181

References

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Indonesia, ITS, Surabaya, (2012)

[2] I. Wienarti, Peramalan (Forecasting) Nilai Ekspor Jawa Tengah menurut

Komoditi dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing Bulan Desember 2009

sampai Juni 2010, UNS, Semarang, (2011)

[3] J.H. Barus, Analisis Peramalan Ekspor Indonesia Pasca Krisis Keuangan

Eropa dan Global Tahun 2008 dengan Metode Dekompoisi, USU, Medan,

(2013)

[4] R. Ruslan, et al., Peramalan Nilai Ekspor di Propinsi Sumatera Utara

dengan Metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins, Saintia Matematika, Vol. 1, Issue 6,

pp. 579-589, (2013)

[5] G.F. Thomson, A Forecasting Model of New Zealand’s Lamb Exports,

Research Report no.223, Lincoln University, Canterbury, (1994)

[6] J.M. Kargbo, Forecasting Agricultural Exports and Imports in South Africa,

Applied Economics, Vol. 39, Issue 16, pp. 2069-2084, (2007)

[7] G. Stoevsky, Economic Forecasting of Bulgaria’s Export and Import Flows,

Discussion Papers, Bulgarian National Bank, (2009)

[8] S. Mehmood, Forecasting Pakistan’s Exports to SAARC: An Application of

Univariate ARIMA Model, Journal of Contemporary Issues in Bussiness

Research, Vol. 1, Issue 3, pp. 96-110, (2012)

[9] P. Arumugam and V. Anithakumari, Fuzzy Time Series Method for

Forecasting Taiwan Export Data, International Journal of Engineering

Trends and Technology (IJETT), Vol. 4, Issue 8, pp. 3342-3347, (2013)

[10] W. Zhang and S. Zhao, Forecasting Research on The Total Volume of

Import and Export Trade of Ningbo Port by Gray Forecasting Model,

Journal of Software, Vol. 8, Issue 2, pp. 466-471, (2013)

[11] A. Tahir, Forecasting Citrus Exports in Pakistan, Pakistan Journal of

Agricultural Research, Vol.27, Issue 1, pp. 64-68, (2014)

[12] B.B. Sen, et al, Forecasting The Quantity of Shrimp and Dry Fish Export

from Bangladesh, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development,

Vol.6, Issue 7, pp. 52-58, (2015)

[13] S. Makridakis, et al , Forecasting: Methods and Applications (3rd ed.),

Wiley: New York, (1998)

[14] G.U. Yule, On a method of investigating periodicities in distributed series

with special reference to Wolfer’s sunspot numbers, Transactions of the

Royal Society of London Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical

or Physical Character, Vol. 226, pp. 267-298, (1927)

[15] S. Hayki, Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation, Prentice Hall,

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2nd Edition, Addison Wesley Publishing Company Inc., New York, (2006)

182

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Statistics and Probability

detect Influential Factors to the Number of Dengue

Haemorrhagic Fever Patients for each District in the

Province of DKI Jakarta

Siti Rohmah Rohimah1,a), Sudarwanto 2,b), Ria Arafiyah3,c)

1,2,3

Mathematics Departement, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences

State University of Jakarta

a)

srohmahrohimah@yahoo.com

b)

sudarwanto@gmail.com

c)

ria_lamrat@yahoo.com

Abstract. Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Patients is a rare occurrence but DHF disease is a serious problem

that requires special handling in each district. In this research used spatial autoregressive Poisson models to detect

factors that influence toward the number of DHF patients. Based on the results of this study was obtained factors

that influence the number of DHF patients are spatial and non-spatial. Spatial factor that predispose to a particular

location is the location of the neighbors. While non-spatial factors that influence the number of DHF patients are

the number of public health centers and the volume of waste. In this research, parameter was estimated by

maximum likelihood estimation. Furthermore, in spatial autoregressive Poisson model was obtained error

standard was less than without spatial in Poisson regression model.

Keywords: Spatial Autoregressive Poisson, Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF), maximum likelihood, Poisson

regression

1. Introduction

The government of DKI Jakarta has always increased the health services through the

years. The improvement of the health sector has always been the important aspect to obtain a

special treatment by the government. Hence, the development of the health sector is considered

as the effort to improve these society welfare. This effort has shown the positive achievement.

The amount of health facilities and infrastructure have been improved continously, especially

hospitals, health center, clinics, laboratories, pharmacies, and Posyandu. Besides improving the

health facilities and infrastructure the government has also held the health training through the

clinics of each district, such as: Posyandu, health education, eradication of mosquito breeding

activity, epidemiological studies, fogging, public health training, and hospitalized patients of

DHF. DHF remains a major health problem in a big city and Jakarta is one of the highest

province in Indonesia that has the citizens who suffered the dengue fever.

The case of DHF is one of the major health sector problems that are often found in

Jakarta. DHF cases requires precise handling, hence it obviously causes death. The research

towards the factors that influence the number of patients with dengue fever in Jakarta have been

carried out, such as, Afira and Mansour [1] that discussed the depiction of the incidence of

DHF in Gambir and Sawah Besar District of 2005-2009.

Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant

things [2]. There will be the the presence of spatial effects between one region to another. A

model that can explain the relationship between an areas and another is called a spatial

model. DHF patients from one region hypothesized can be influenced by the surrounding region

183

and spread Poisson. Therefore this study uses a model of spatial autoregressive Poisson

(Poisson SAR). The use of SAR Poisson models are expected to determine the factors that

influence both spatially and non-spatially toward the number of DHF patients, so the results of

this reserach can be used as a reference of DHF eradication program in each district in

Jakarta. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that influence the spatial and non-

spatial to the number of DHF patients in DKI Jakarta. This research is expected to provide the

inputs to the local government of Jakarta in resolving the cases of dengue fever spatially and

non-spatially.

Dengue fever Disease is also called as Haemorrhagic Fever hence it is accompanied by

fever and bleeding [13]. The disease is spread by vectors such as mosquitoes called Aedes

aegypti. It is classified as unusual events. DHF can be diagnosed through symptoms such as

high fever and the appearance of the rash and to obtain a higher accuracy of diagnosis usually

conducted the various laboratory tests.

The laboratory tests included: counting the number of antibodies against dengue virus,

counting the complete leukocytes blood, hemoglobin, hematocrit, and platelets. Leukocytes or

white blood cells that contain a nucleus, with a normal range for women is 4300-11300/mm3,

whereas for men is 4300-10300/mm3. Hemoglobin is a complex protein which presents in

erythrocytes containing iron and red. Normal hemoglobin levels for women was 11.4 g/dl to

15.1 g/dl, while for males 13.4 g/dl to 17.7 g/dl. Hematocrit is a number that indicates the

percentage of solids in the blood against the blood fluid. Hematocrit normal circumstances of

human body is 38 to 42% for women and 40-47% for men. Platelets are the smallest part of the

cellular elements in the bone marrow and are important in the process of clotting and

hemostatic. The normal conditions the number of platelets for women and men between

150000-40000/mm3.

The assumption of the factor that affects the number of patients of dengue hemorrhagic

fever is a spatial factor and non-spatial. Spatial factors that affect the number of dengue fever

patients in a certain location is the number of dengue fever patients at the sorrounding

location. While a non-spatial factors that suspected to affect the number of dengue fever

patients, such as: the number of population density, the number of health centers, and the

volume of waste.

Poisson regression is a regression function with the response variable (Y) which has a

Poisson distribution probability, e.g random variable Y represents the number of events that

occurred over a period of time or a particular region. Poisson distribution is determined by

probability mass function (Fleiss et al. 2003):

e−μ μy

P(Y = y | μ) = , for y = 0, 1, 2, … (1)

y!

the probability mass function Yi is expressed as follows:

y

μ i e−μi

f(yi |μi ) = i (2)

yi !

Let 𝜼 = 𝐗′𝜷 is a sistematic component which is the linear function of independent variable X

and the parameter 𝜷 which is unknown. 𝜼 is linked with μ through link function h(μ) = 𝜼 with

h(μ) = log μ. So, multiple Poisson regression model can be written as:

log μi = xi1 β1 + … + xik βk + εi (3)

With xik is the kth independent variable and ith respons i = 1,2, … , n [4].

184

Model SAR (Spatial Autoregressive Model)

Spatial contiguity matrix is the matrix which depicts the relation between one region to

another. The row of ith from weighted matrix shows the relation between ith response to another

responses. So that, the weighted matrix (n x n) , with n as the sum of all responses. The

weighted matrix used is the nearest neighborhood [8], which is defined as follow:

1, if j is the nearest neighbor of i

Wij = {

0, others

The row of the spatial contiguity matrix shows the spatial relation between one region to

another, therefore the sum of the ith row is the sum of the neighbors which is owned by the i

region dinoted: ci. = ∑nj=1 cij with ci. is the sum of the weighted of all the ith row and cij

cij

weighted variable of ith row and jth column. While (wij∗ ) = , this wij∗ is the matrix element

ci.

which has been standardized, so the sum of each row is 1.

SAR model equation in [8] can be written as follow:

yi = ρ ∑nj=1 wij∗ yj + xi 𝜷 + εi , (4)

With ρ is the autoregressive spatial coefficient, wij∗ is the spatial weighted matrix which have

been standardized in the ith region and jth neighbor, and also εi is random error which

independently and identically distributed.

If the SAR model is written in the form of matrix, can be written as follow:

𝒚 = ρ𝐖 ∗ 𝒚 + 𝐗𝜷 + 𝜺 (5)

The reduction of SAR is as follow:

𝒚 = 𝐀−1 𝐗𝜷 + 𝜺∗ (6)

With 𝐀 = 𝐈 − ρ𝐖 ∗, 𝐀−1 is the inverse matrix A and 𝜺∗ = 𝐀−1 𝜺.

The use of spatial on otoregressive model for the rendom data [10] is:

μSAR

i = exp[𝒂𝑖 𝐗𝜷] (7)

With 𝒂𝑖 is the row vector on the ith region (1 x n). On the Poisson SAR model, the expected

value of one region or ithlocation is the function of neighbor region or j th location. Besides

Poisson SAR model is also used as the data of the response variable with count data. Probability

mass function of Poisson SAR model is:

yi

(μSAR ) exp(−μSAR )

∗

f(yi | 𝐗, 𝐖 ; 𝜷, ρ) =

i i (8)

yi !

with μSAR

i = exp(𝒂𝑖 𝐗𝜷).

The log likelihood function is:

n yi

∗

(μSAR

i ) exp(−μSAR

i )

L( 𝜷, ρ | 𝐗, 𝐖 ; y1 , y2 , … , yn ) = ∏ { }

yi !

i=1

Parameter ρ and 𝜷 are estimated using maximum likelihood method. The probability

mass function of Poisson distribution is:

yi

(μSAR

i ) exp(−μSAR

i )

f(yi | 𝐗, 𝐖 ∗ ; 𝜷, ρ) = (9)

yi !

185

With μSAR

i = exp(𝒂𝑖 𝐗𝜷), maximum log likelihood function is:

ln L( 𝜷, ρ | 𝐗, 𝐖 ∗ ; y1 , y2 , … , yn )

n n

−1

= 𝒚′𝐀 𝐗𝜷 − ∑ exp([𝒂𝑖 𝐗𝜷]) − ∑ ln( yi !)

i=1 i=1 (10)

The estimation of parameter ρ dan 𝜷 on the Poisson SAR model used iteration with

Newton-Raphson method. The steps of this method are:

1. ̂ ∗(0) , with 𝜷∗(0) = [𝜌0 𝛽00 𝛽10

Determining 𝜷 … 𝛽𝑘𝑜 ], iteration when t = 0.

∂ L(𝛽 ∗ ) ∂ L(𝛽∗ )

2. Making gradient vector 𝒈′t+1 = [ , ], with t is the iteration number.

∂ρ ∂𝜷

…

∂ρ2 ∂β0 ∂ρ ∂βk ∂ρ

∂2 ln L(β∗ ) ∂2 ln L(β∗ )

…

𝐇(k+1)x(k+1) = ∂β20 ∂β0 βk

⋱ ⋮

∂2 ln L(β∗ )

[ ∂β2k ]

4. Putting ̂ ∗(0)

𝜷 into 𝒈 vector and H matrix to result 𝒈(0) vector and 𝐇(0) matrix.

5. Doing the iteration with t = 0 on the equation: 𝜷∗(t+1) = 𝜷∗t − 𝐇t−1 𝒈′t , 𝜷t∗ is set of

parameter estimeter which is convergence on tth iteration.

6. If the estimeter parameter is not convergence yet, so the second step is done returned to

obtain the convergent. The convergence criteria is resulted when the eigen value of Fisher

information matrix is positive.

7. ̂ [10].

Wald tests is used to test the significance of spatial correlation coefficient (ρ̂) and 𝜷

Hypothesis test for ρ is:

H0 : ρ = 0 (there is no spatial correlation)

H1 : ρ ≠ 0 (there is a spatial correlation)

ρ̂0 2

Gρ = { }

̂ (ρ̂0 )

se

Gρ statistic will distribute χ2 with the degree of freedom 1. Decision criteria which is taken is

rejected H0 , if Gρ > χ2(α/2;1) .

The hypothesis for βk coefficient parameter(Fleiss et al. 2003) is:

H0 ∶ βk = 0

H1 : βk ≠ 0

With Wald Test statistic:

2

β̂k

Gβ = { }

̂ (β̂k )

se

186

Gβ statistic will distribute χ2 with the degree of freedom 1. Decision criteria which is taken is

rejected H0, if Gβ > χ2(α/2;1). Standard error is resulted using Fisher information matrix 𝐈(𝛉)

(McCulloch dan Searle 2001), wih this formula:

∂2 ln L(β∗ ) ∂2 ln L(β∗ ) ∂2 ln L(β∗ )

…

∂ρ2 ∂β0 ∂ρ ∂βk ∂ρ

∂ ln L(β∗ )

2

∂ ln L(β∗ )

2

…

𝐈(𝛉) = − ∂β20 ∂β0 βk

⋱ ⋮

∂2 ln L(β∗ )

[ ∂β2k ]

The variance of θ̂ ≈ [𝐈(𝛉)]−1 , so the standard error = √[𝐈(𝛉)]−1.

After conducting the parameter estimation and significance test of the each parameter

estimator, it is required the determination coefficient which can depict the relation between

response variable and independent variable. Determination coefficient or R2 is the percent of

variation that can be explained by the regression equation. One of the R2 which has been

improved by Cameron and Windmeijer [5] which is based on the deviance residual (R2DEV ).

̂)

ln L(y)−ln L(μ

The formula for R2DEV: R2DEV = 1 − ln L(y)−ln L(y̅)

with ln L(y) = ∑ni[yi ln(yi ) − yi − ln(yi !)] is the natural logaritm (ln) of the likelihood function

when all the parameter βj (j = 0,1,2, … , k) are not included in the model, yi is the response;

ln L(μ̂) = ∑ni[yi ln(μ̂) − μ̂i − ln(yi !)] is the natural logaritm of likelihood function when all the

parameter βj are included in the model, μ̂i is the estimation value for ith response; ln L(y̅) =

∑ni[yi ln(y̅) − y̅ − ln(yi !)] is the natural logaritm of likelihood function when only the

parameter β0 is included in the, and (y̅) is mean of y response.

The analysis of the data using R.2.10.1and the analysis steps are conducted as follow:

1. Determining the independent variable.

2. Determining spatial weighted matrix 𝐖 ∗ .

3. Estimating parameter 𝜷, ρ with Newton-Raphson method.

4. Testing of parameter significance with Wald Test.

5. Testing of goodness of fit model with R2DEV .

6. Drawing conclusion

The Data

This research uses the data from BPS DKI Jakarta on 2013 from 42 districts in DKI

Jakarta. Besides, the data is also obtained from the surveillance data of Public Health and Public

Cleanness of DKI Jakarta. The response variable used is the amount of dengue fever patients in

Jakarta province without Seribu island. While the independent variable in this research: the

number of population density (X1 ), the number of health centers (X 2 ), and the volume of

waste (X 3 ).

187

2. Main Results

Poisson Regression Model Analysis

Poisson Regression Model is formed using three independent variable simultaneously,

they are: the number of population density (X1 ), the number of health centaers (X 2 ), and the

volume of waste (X 3 ). The parameter estimation value from this model is shown in Table 1. To

interpret the obtained Poisson Regression Model used odd ratio value of each coefficient. This

model shows that the addition of the proportion of the population density (X1 ) one person per

km2 will increase the mean of DHF patients is 0.000392 %. Based on Table 1 concluded that the

number of population density does not significantly influence. Besides, in every additional 1

unit of health center (X 2 ) will increase the mean of DHF patients is 12.29%. While, in every

additional 1 ton of waste (X 3 ) will increase the mean of DHF patients is 0.29%. Then the result

of parameter estimater from the Poisson Regression is used as the initial value to obtain the

parameter estimator on Poisson SAR model. The determination coefficient (R2 deviance) from

the Poisson regression model is obtained is 22%. The following is the parameter estimation

value from the Poisson regression model.

Estimated Standard

Parameter G value

value error

beta 0 2.03E+00 1.17E-01 2.99E+02*

beta 1 3.92E-06 2.50E-06 2.46E+00

5.024

beta 2 1.16E-01 1.06E-02 1.19E+02*

beta 3 2.90E-03 4.36E-04 4.41E+01*

Note: * significant with alpha = 5 %

The estimation of coefficient parameter SAR model used maximum likelihood

method. Besides, Poisson SAR model is a kind of nonlinear model and also it is not closed

form. So, the process of estimation of parameter used iteration by Newton-Raphson method.

TABLE 2. Parameter estimation value of SAR model

Estimated Standard

Parameter G value

Value error

Rho 9.75E-02 9.46E-04 10630.89*

beta 0 2.03E+00 4.67E-04 18849862*

beta 1 1.90E-06 2.18E-06 0.761109 5.024

beta 2 9.43E-02 7.85E-03 144.2874*

beta 3 2.32E-03 3.91E-04 35.01243*

Note: * : significant with alpha 5%

SAR Poisson model analysis that involves the entire district in Jakarta showed that the

number of dengue fever patients is influenced by the proximity of the area and some

independent variables. Table 2 showed the significance test each parameter estimators using the

188

Wald test. Wald test results showed that the spatial correlation value was significant. The result

is spatial correlation value ρ = 0.1 with Gρ value = 10630.89, and χ12 value = 5.024. it showed

the spatial correlation of the model was significant o the level of α = 5%. So that, it can be

concluded that the number of DHF patient on certain region or sorrounding location will

influence the number of DHF patient on the nearby location. The significance test for every

parameter estimater β2 dan β3 𝑖𝑠 obtained Gβ > χ12 value. It showed that X 2 and X3 is

included into model is significant while for the parameter estimater β1 is not significant hence it

is obtained Gβ < χ12 .

This model suggests that for every proportion additional of the population density (X1 ) of

1 person per km2 will increase the mean of DHF patients at 0.00019%. However, the

independent variables X1 do not have a significant effect on the model. Based on Table 2

showed that the number of population density was not significant. Moreover, every additional 1

unit of health centers (X 2 ) will increase the mean of DHF patients at 9.889%. while the

additional 1 ton of waste (X 3 ) will increase the mean of DHF patients at 0.23%. but the

independent variable X1 do not have the significance role toward the model. The test of model

goodness can be seen by the number of R2. Based on the R2 deviance is obtained that variance

of the number of DHF patients can be explained by the independent variables at 21%. If

comparing with the parameter estimator of Poisson regression, the obtained standard error on

the Poisson SAR model is less. The obtained Poisson SAR model can be written as follow:

2.03E + 00

1.90E − 06

μSAR

i = exp[𝒂𝑖 𝐗𝜷] with ρ = 0.1 and 𝜷 = [ ]

9.43E − 02

2.32E − 03

3. Concluding Remarks

The factors that influence the number of DHF patients in DKI Jakarta province based on

SAR Poisson model is spatial and non-spatial factor. The spatial factor which influence a

certain district is it’s nearby. Based on the Poisson SAR model obtained the spatial correlation

which is significant at 𝜌 = 0.1. The non-spatial factor based on the Poisson SAR model which

influence the number of DHF patient significantly are the number of health centers and the

volume of waste. The result of the analysis using Poison regression model and Poisson SAR

model is obtained that the number of population desnity is not significant; Modelling the

number of DHF patients using Poisson regression model is obtained R2 is 22% while modelling

the number of DHF patients using Poisson SAR model is obtained R2 is 21%. The standard error

of the Poisson SAR model is less than the Poisson regression model, so it can be concluded that

the modelling of SAR Poisson used is better than the Poisson regression model.

Acknowledgement

The author would like to thank to the State University of Jakarta who have financed this

research. This research is funded by DIPA UNJ on fiscal year 2014.

References

[1] F. Afira and M. Mansyur, Gambaran Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue di Kecamatan

Gambir dan Kecamatan Sawah Besar Jakarta Pusat Tahun 2005-2009, Jurnal Gambaran

Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue vol. 1 No.1 April 2013, [FKUI].

[2] L. Anselin, Spatial Economics: Methods and Models, Dordrecht, Academic Publishers,

(1988).

189

[3] [BPS] Badan Pusat Statistika, 2013, Provinsi DKI Jakarta dalam Angka, DKI Jakarta, BPS.

[4] A.C. Cameron and P.K. Trivedi, Regression Analysis of Count Data, New York, Cambridge

University, (1998).

[5] A.C. Cameron and F.A.G. Windmeijer, R-squared Measures for Count Data Regession

Models with Applications to Health Care Utilization, Journal of Business and Economics

Statistics (1995).

[6] R.Y. Fa’rifah and Purhadi, Analisis Survival Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Laju

Kesembuhan Pasien Penderita Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di RSU Haji Surabaya

dengan regresi Cox, Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS Vol. 1 No.1 September 2012. [FMIPA ITS].

[7] J.L. Fleiss, B. Levin, and M.C. Paik, Statistical Methods for Rates and Proportions Third

Edition, USA, Columbia University, (2003).

[8] A.S. Fotheringham and P.A. Rogerson, Handbook of Spatial Analysis, London, Sage

Publications Ltd, (2009).

[9] D.G. Kleinbaum, L.L. Kupper, and K.E. Muller, Apllied Regression Analysis and Other

Multivariable Methods, Boston, PWS-KENT Publishing Company, (1988).

[10] D.M. Lambert, J.P. Brown, and RJGM Florax, A Two-Step Estimator for a Spatial Lag

Model of Counts: Theory, Small Sample Performance and application, USA, Dept. of

Agricultural Economics Purdue University, (2010).

[11] J. Lee and DWS Wong, Statistic for Spatial Data, New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc,

(2001).

[12] C.E. McCulloch and S.R. Searle, Generalized Linear and Mixed Models, Canada: John

Wiley & Sons, Inc, (2001).

[13] R.M. Mulia, Kesehatan Lingkungan, Yogyakarta, Graha Ilmu, (2005).

190

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Mathematics of Finance

Operational Risk using Gaussian Mixture Model

for Loss Distribution Approach

1,2

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences,

Universitas Indonesia

a)

seli.siti.sholihat@sci.ui.ac.id

b)

hendri@ui.ac.id

Abstract. Banks must be able to manage all of banking risk, one of them is operational risk. Banks

manage operational risk by calculates estimating operational risk which is known as the economic

capital (EC). Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) is a popular method to estimate economic capital

(EC).This paper propose Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM) for severity distribution estimation of loss

distribution approach(LDA). The result on this research is the value at EC of LDA method using

GMM is smaller 2 % - 2.8 % than the value at EC of LDA using existing distribution model.

Keywords: Loss Distribution Approach, Gaussian Mixture Model, Bayesian Information Criterion,

LDA, GMM, BIC.

1. Introduction

Bank must be able to manage all of banking risk, one of them is operational risk. A

common industry definition of Operational Risk is the risk of direct or indirect loss

resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people or systems, or from

external events”, Frachot [4]. Bank manage operational risk by calculate estimation of

operational risks which is known as the economic capital (EC).

Economic Capital (EC) is the amount of capital that an organization must set aside

to offset potential losses. There are three approach to calculate Economic Capital based

on Basel Accord II. That are Basic Indicator Approach (BIA), Standardized Approach

(SA), and Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), Frachot [4]. The capital charge

using BIA and SA is calculated by fixed percentage. The capital charge using AMA,

bank could calculated EC based on their internal loss data. Internal data is used as an

input to compute the probability distribution of loss. The popular approach of AMA is

Loss Distribution Approuch (LDA).

Mathematics definition , the total of annual operational Losses :

𝑁(𝑡)

𝑖

191

Where:

N (t) : Random Variable of the number events losses in 1 year.

Distribution of N (t) is called frequency Distribution

(i)

X (t) : Random Variable of the amount losses for the i-th event.

Distribution of X(i)(t) is called Severity Distribution

Z(t) : Annual losses, is summarize of the loss X(i)(t) in 1 year.

Distribution of Z(t) is called Aggregation Distribution

frequency distribution (frequency distribution) must be estimated and then aggregate

distribution is formed from both of them. Through LDA method, the value of EC can be

gotten from Value at Risk (VaR) in aggregate distribution with the level of confidence

reaches 99.9%. Aggregate distribution of the random variable Z can not expressed

analytically. So that the numerical approach is needed to determine the distribution.

Several well-known numerical method that could be used are the Monte Carlo method,

the Fast Fourier Transform, and Panjer Recursion. In the study used the most easily

implemented, namely the Monte Carlo method, Shevchenko [9]. That why our research

would used its method. One of problems on LDA is severity distribution estimation that

used a model on particular distribution cannot describe a data well through. Then severity

distribution estimation based on data is used to solved this problem.

One of methods that estimate probability distribution function based on data is

Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). GMM is parametric method that estimate probability

density of random variable. Probability density of GMM is a linear combination of

several Gaussian distribution, that is :

𝐾

𝑘=1

Where:

𝑝(𝑥): probability of x

K : the number of Gaussian distribution that is used

𝜋𝑘 : k-th mixing coefisien, ∑k πk = 1 dan 0 ≤ πk ≤ 1.

𝒩(𝑥|𝝁𝒌 , 𝛴𝑘 ) : Normal /Gaussian Distribution k-th, where k=1,2,…,

1 1

𝒩(𝒙|𝝁𝒌 , 𝛴𝑘 ) = exp {− (𝒙 − 𝝁𝒌 )T Σk −1 (𝒙 − 𝝁𝒌 )}

√(2𝜋|𝜮𝒌 |) 2

Each Gaussian distribution 𝒩(𝑥|𝜇𝑘 , Σ𝑘 ) is called component of mixture, and each

componet have different mean 𝝁𝒌 and covarian 𝚺𝒌 . GMM is formed by parameter 𝝅, ,

and 𝚺, where 𝝅 = (𝝅𝟏 , , 𝝅𝟐 , … , 𝝅𝒌 ), 𝝁 = (𝝁𝟏 , 𝝁𝟐 , … , 𝝁𝒌 ) and 𝚺 = (𝚺𝟏 , 𝚺𝟐 … . , 𝚺𝐤 ).

Parameter 𝜋𝑘 is called mixing coefisient. Ilustration of GMM show in Bishop, C. M.[1].

The question is “Which is a better K for GMM (K=?)”. Number of component in

GMM could be selected using model selection. There are two popular model selection

that is used, Akaike Information Criterion(AIC) and Bayesian Information

Criterion(BIC). Due to the selection model, BIC has proven consistent in estimating the

density function of the mixture model, Dempster[3]. BIC also proved consistent in

192

choosing the number of components in the mixture model, Claeskens and Hjort [2].

Those are the reason of choosing BIC in this study.

The best model using BIC is taken by giving a score to each model and then choose

the model that has the smallest score. Here is the calculation of scores on the model BIC,

Claeskens and Hjort [2] :

BIC = -2ln (L (θ)) + dim (θ) ln (n)

where:

L (θ) : the value of the likelihood function model with the estimated parameters θ

n : number of data

2. Main Results

The Software of simulations use programming language Python. The simulation in

this paper calculate the value of EC using LDA in which severity distribution is estimated

by GMM. First step on simulating, we generated data toy for operational risk(Assumed

operational risk real data), with those data then we estimate frequency distribution with a

Poisson distribution and estimate severity distribution using k-GMM(Selection model for

k using BIC). Next, the simulations to be done to generate more data for LDA which

appropriate with operasional risk data. The result of simulation on LDA is EC value.

Then to see how GMM works on LDA, EC value in which GMM applied compare with

EC value in which other distribution model applied.

Data are generate in 3 group of data: 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years. histogram of

data is below here :

Histogram 10 years

Value of loss

FIGURE 1. Histogram of data

193

First, estimating frequency distribution, Frequency of losses per year in operational

risk are the values for the random variable N, which is the number of frequency of losses

incurred within one year. The distribution of this random variable N can be estimated

with a Poisson distribution, this is because the number of frequency of losses incurred in

a particular year does not depend on the number of frequencies in other years. Parameters

on the Poisson distribution is the mean . For data 3 years: = 165, for data 5 years: =

60, and for 10 years: = 54. Frequency distribution that is formed can be seen in the

following figure 2:

Frequency distribution 3 years Frequency distribution 5 years

thing to do is to determine the parameters-parameters in the GMM. Simulations

performed on three groups of data, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years. Component K in GMM

for each of data determined in advance by the selection model BIC. BIC methods are

iterative methods in determining the optimal model by scoring in each model of different

components k, optimal model is a model that has the smallest scoring with K smallest

components. At 3 years of data, the method of BIC produce optimal k= 2. At 5 years of

data, the method of BIC produce optimal component k= 4. At 5 years of data, the method

of BIC produce optimal component K = 3.

194

TABLE 1. Parameters of GMM using data 3 years, 5 years and 10 years

Data 3 years

Component Cofficient mixing Mean Variance

1 0.4055 66436.9129 3.23732875e+08

2 0.5945 32211.7052 1.34890412e+08

Data 5 years

Component Cofficient mixing Mean Variance

1 0.1511 67914.4881 1.13370445e+08

2 0.5348 36794.2922 1.02323533e+08

3 0.2511 14826.8864 1.00002549e+07

4 0.0630 92860.0602 5.95976389e+06

Data 10 years

Component Cofficient mixing Mean Variance

1 0.4041 54793.2608 2.07430867e+08

2 0.2056 16073.4845 1.20531853e+07

3 0.3903 32175.9726 8.76020500e+07

The following is ilustration of GMM for data 10 years with 3 component gaussian where

the each parameter on table 1.

3

𝑘=1

+ 0.3903𝒩(𝑥|32175.9726,8.76020500e + 07)

The red curve in Figure 3 are curve of GMM for each data. Figure 3 also saw us

that the curve is very good in estimating the data, visible from the ridge on the histogram

followed properly by the red curve.

How k component on GMM estimate the severity distribution, for k = 1,2,3,4, and

k = 10. This estimation was performed on three groups of data, 3 years, 5 years of data,

and the data 10 years. This estimating was conducted to visually whether the selection of

the best models with BIC able approximating data well and compare it with other GMM

models. The following Figure 4, shows the probability density function models GMM for

k = 1,2,3,4 and 10. For k = 10, appears to lack of smoothness curve pdf, pdf increasingly

tapered curve. Moreover, it appears the estimated GMM with a large k (k = 10) is not too

different from the estimated optimal GMM with K obtained by BIC.

195

The graphic of severity distribution using GMM are on figure 3.

Pdf amount of losses, data 5 years

amount of losses

Pdf of amount of losses, data 5 years

196

Visually to data 3 years, the best model looks to GMM with 3 components (yellow

curve), GMM with 2 components is still not good approximation. This is in contrast with

the best GMM models produced by the method of BIC which 2 component is an optimal

component. Data 5 years, the best model seems to GMM 4 component (blue curve). 10

years of data, the best model seems to GMM 3 component (yellow curve). Data for 5-

year and 10 year, the selection of the best models with visualization are same as with the

selection of the best model with BIC. However, best model GMM for each data can be

done visually in the case of data one dimension as above. If data have large dimension, it

would be difficult to portray the data graphically so the selection of components visually

difficult. In addition, the selection of the optimum component in a visual way can not be

justified because that are subjective.

Pdf of amount of losses, data 3 years

Pdf of amount of losses, data 5 years

FIGURE 5. Comparing severity distribution using GMM(red curve) and Log-Normal(blue curve)

Red curve in Figure 5 shows for 3 group of data used in this study, pdf using GMM

better in describing the research data because it can estimate the local areas, while pdf

model of log-normal can not do it.

The simulation is calculating EC values. As we know that EC obtained from the

calculation of VaR on Aggregate distribution ( formed from the severity distribution and

frequency distribution) with a confidence level of 99.9%.Aggregate distribution

calculated numerically using the Monte Carlo method. The purpose of this simulation to

determine how much difference the value of EC produced by LDA using GMM and EC

produced by LDA using the Log-Normal. The number of samples used were 1.10, 102,

103, 104, 105, and 106. The simulation was performed 10 times for each sample number.

Results of the simulation calculations are presented in table 2 below:

TABEL 2. EC using GMM and Log-Normal for number of sampel 106

Method Economic Capital (EC)

Data 3 years Data 5 years Data 10 years

GMM 9.729.364,21 3.557.837,80 3.089.042,94

197

Table 2 shows that using GMM on severity distribution of LDA gives a lower EC

value than the Log-Normal. EC value by GMM of 3 groups of data provide EC value 2%

lower than the value of the EC with the Log-Normal.

3. Concluding Remarks

The result on this research is estimation of severity distribution through GMM is better

than known distribution model in describing the data. The value at EC of LDA method

using GMM is smaller 2 % - 2,8 % than the value at EC of LDA using existing

distribution model. Then if bank use this method, they could have capital efficiency.

Reference

[1] C. M. Bishop, Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Springer: New York,

(2006).

[2] G. Claeskens and N.L. Hjort, Model Selection and model Averaging, Cambrigde

University Press, (2011).

[3] A.P. Dempster, N.M. Laird, and D.B. Rubin, Maximum Likelihood from Incomplete

Data Via The EM Algorithm. Journal of The Royal Statistical Society, 39(1), (1977).

[4] A. Frachot, P. Georges, and T. Roncalli, Loss Distribution Approach for Operational

Risk, Working Paper, Groupe de Recherche Operationnelle: France, (2001).

[5] E.J. Jimene, M.J. Feria, and J.L. Martin, Economic Capital for Operational Risk:

Applying Loss Distribution Approach(LDA), Working Paper, Consejeria de

Innovacions: Andalucia, (2007).

[6] G.J. McLachlan and T. Krishnan, The EM Algorithm and its Extensions, Wiley,

(1997).

[7] G.J. McLachlan and D. Peel, Finite Mixture Model, Wiley, (2000).

[8] H.Z. Ming and S.C. Qian, An Approach VaR for capital markets with Gaussian

Mixture. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computation, 168, pp. 1079-1085,

(2005).

[9] P.V. Shevchenko, Implementing Loss Distribution Approach for Operational Risk.

Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, vol. 26(3), pp. 277-307, (2009).

198

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Mathematics of Finance

Capital for Operational Risk

Using A Clayton Copula

Nurfidah Dwitiyanti1,a), Zuletane Maska2,b), Hendri Murfi3,c),

Siti Nurrohmah4 ,d)

1,2,3,4

Departement of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences,

Universitas Indonesia

a)

nurfidah.dwitiyanti@sci.ui.ac.id

b)

zuletane.maska@sci.ui.ac.id

c)

snurrohmah@sci.ui.ac.id

d)

hendri@ui.ac.id

Abstract. Bank is required to provide capital adequacy based on its risks. One of the bank's risks

should be calculated for the capital requirement is the operational risk. The operational risks must

be managed well because it may have a significant negative effect on bank’s reputation. The

operational risk’s capital requirement is known as economic capital (EC). The values of EC is

obtained from Value at Risk (VaR) in compound distribution with the level of confidence reaches

99.9%. According to Basel II, bank must calculate EC for overall 56 risks, so it is needed for the

aggregation. In the calculation of aggregation EC, the assumptions between risks that are usually

used by bank are completely dependent and independent. But, the values of EC from the

assumptions are unrealistic, so bank needs to consider the dependence structure that exists

between risks for aggregating EC. In this paper, we use a Clayton copula for this aggregation. The

Clayton copula is one type of the Archimedean families that has lower tail dependence. The

Clayton copula is used to capture the dependencies of small losses. The purpose of this paper is to

conduct a simulation of the calculation of the aggregation EC using a Clayton copula then

compares it to the EC value using a Frank copula. The results of the simulation show that the EC

values using Clayton copula are smaller than the EC values using a Frank Copula.

Keywords and phrases: operational risk, economic capital, value at risk, Clayton copula.

1. Introduction

Bank Indonesia as the central bank plays an important role in creating a

healthy banking system. Related to the role, Bank Indonesia implemented a policy

under the supervision and control of bank capital in the future. The capitalization

policy is regulated by Bank Indonesia refers to international standards which is

recommended by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in a document

known as Basel I and II.

In the Basel documents, the bank is required to provide capital adequacy

based on its risks. It was arranged by Bank Indonesia through Bank Indonesia

Regulation No. 15/12 / PBI / 2013, which Bank Indonesia required each bank to

provide minimum capital requirement according to its risks profile. In this

199

regulation, the risks profile regulated consist of credit risk, market risk and

operational risk.

One of the bank's risks must be managed well because it may have a

significant negative effect on bank’s reputation is operational risk. Basel II Accord

defines operational risk as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed

internal processes, people or systems, or from external events. The supervision and

control of operational risk has been regulated by the central bank through Bank

Indonesia Regulation No. 11/25 / PBI / 2009 concerning the implementation of risk

management for commercial bank. In the implementation of the risk management,

one, bank must calculate the allocation of minimum capital requirement to cover

losses because of the bank's risks. So banks are expected to avoid losses or

bankruptcy.

In the context of operational risk, the capital requirement is known as

economic capital. Economic capital (EC) is the amount of capital banks need to be

maintained for at risk as a result of unexpected losses in the period and a certain

confidence level [1]. EC can be viewed as Value at Risk (VaR) at a given

confidence level [14]. VaR is defined as a risk measurement method that is used to

determines the worst possible loss that may occur with a given confidence level

and for a given time frame [2].

Basel II Accord allows banks to choose one of the three approaches that is

adopted by the Basel Committee for calculating EC. The three approaches are

referred to the Basic Indicator Approach (BIA), the Standardized Approach (SA),

and the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA). Based on the three approaches,

banks generally use the AMA where banks are allowed to use their own internal

models according to eight business lines and seven event types which are defined

by Basel II and relevant to the bank. [2]

The most widely used the AMA approach is the Loss Distribution Approach

(LDA). LDA is used to calculate the value of EC that is resulted from the

aggregation loss for individual risks. The aggregation loss for individual risk is

formed by a combination of two distributions namely frequency distribution and

severity distribution. Both of the distributions are assumed to be independent. [3]

According to Basel II, there are 56 overall risks that need to be aggregated

EC for the overall risks. In the calculation of the aggregation EC, the assumptions

between the risks are usually used by banks are completely dependent and

independent. In the calculation of the aggregation EC assuming completely

dependent is assessed unrealistic and may overestimate the EC because it is

assumed each losses are dependent on each other and always occur at the same

time [1].

For example, if a natural disaster caused loss for the institution, then at the

same time the institution also suffer losses because of internal fraud. It is

considered unrealistic because the incident did not always occur simultaneously.

While the assumption of risk are independent can not be accepted by the regulator

and for a fair quantification of EC [12]. So, the calculation of the aggregation EC

needs to consider for the dependence structure between risks. Because this will be

an impact on the values of EC.

200

In this paper, we use copula for dependence modeling between risks. In

Latin, the word meaning copula means a link or binder. Mathematically, Copula is

a function that combines the univariate marginal distributions to obtain a joint

distribution with a specific dependency structure [16].

There are two families copulas commonly used, namely Elliptical families

and Archimedean families. According to The Moment, Kimiagari, and Noorbakhsh

[10, Lu [7], and Li, et al [6], Elliptical families, such as Gaussian copula and

Student t Copula, are considered good enough for determining the influence of the

dependence structure in the calculation of EC. However, Elliptical copulas have

limitations for heavy-tailed risk data distribution because it has properties

dependent symmetrical tail [15]. While the Archimedean families can determine

the different of dependence structure. This is illustrated by this families are

identical from their tails. The application of Archimedean families for the financial

risk data and climatology data can be found in Mahfoud [8] and Pradier [12].

In this paper will be discussed the application of Archimedean families for

calculating EC on the operational risk data. The type of the Archimedean families

is used in this paper namely Clayton copula. Clayton copula at the first time was

introduced by Clayton [18]. Clayton Copula is widely used to capture the

dependence structure of the lower tail on correlated risks [8]. According to Venter

[17], Clayton copula gives priority to capture the dependency for small losses.

Then, in this paper will also be conducted comparison of EC using the same family

of the Archimedean copula namely Frank copula, which Frank copula did not show

dependence structure either at the upper or lower tail.

2. Main Results

2.1. Clayton Copula

Clayton copula is one type of Archimedean families. Clayton copula is

used to capture the dependence structure of the lower tail on correlated risks [8].

Clayton copula had been introduced by Clayton [18]. Clayton copula form for

bivariate case is given by:

−1/𝜃

𝐶(𝑢, 𝑣) = (𝑢−𝜃 + 𝑣 −𝜃 − 1) , 𝜃>0 (1)

(𝑡 −𝜃 −1)

where a generator function 𝜙(𝑡) = 𝜃

.

Genest and Rivest [8] said that to built parameter from Archimedean

bivariate copula, it can use correlation of Kendall’s τ and generator function

(𝑡 −𝜃 −1)

𝜙(𝑡) = 𝜃

. So, the estimation for Clayton Copula’s parameter θ is:

2𝜏

𝜃 = 1−𝜏 . (2)

201

The dependence between copula’s parameter and the tail dependence for

the lower tail coefficient can be determined by using:

2−1/𝜃 . (3)

Because Clayton copula captures the lower tail dependence, the coefficient

for the upper tail dependence is 𝜆𝑈 = 0.

The illustration for the Clayton copula can be seen in Figure 1. It shows a

simulation points from Clayton copula. In the figure, it appears that there is a

strong correlation in the lower left corner. It indicates the dependent tail bottom.

FIGURE 1. Copula Clayton (θ=3)

Intuitively, VaR is defined as a risk measurement method that is used to

determines the worst possible loss that may occur with a given confidence level

and for a given time frame [2]. While mathematically, given some confidence level

α∈ (0.1), the Value at-Risk (VaR) at the confidence level α is given by the smallest

number 𝑙 in way that the probability that the loss 𝐿 exceeds 𝑙 is not larger than (1-

α) [9] :

𝑉𝑎𝑅𝛼 (𝐿) = inf{𝑙 ∈ ℝ ∶ 𝑃(𝐿 > 𝑙) ≤ 1 − 𝛼}. (4)

𝑉𝑎𝑅 is also known as quantile of loss distribution.

The Basel Committee has defined LDA as an estimate of the distribution of

operational risk losses for each business line and event types, based on assumptions

of frequency and severity of events [1].

202

In modeling losses with LDA, the first step will be done by bank is to

estimates two separate distributions for frequency and severity of operational losses

from each business line and event type combination. Frequency distribution states

occurance of operational losses of a bank. This distribution is discrete and

generally follows a Poisson distribution or Negative Binomial distribution [10].

Severity distribution is the amount of losses that is caused by loss events. There are

many distributions to represent severity distribution, Lognormal, Weibull, and

Gamma distribution. Furthermore, both distribution are compounded to obtain the

aggregate loss distribution through Monte Carlo simulation. As an illustration of

the LDA approach is shown in Figure 2.

Mathematically, the annual loss distribution for the individual risk r is given by:

N

r

Lr = ∑i=1 X r,i. (5)

Where:

Nr : the number of loss events caused by risk r over a year.

X r : the amount of losses for event r.

The Assumptions for the equation (5) :

2. 𝑋𝑟,1 , 𝑋𝑟,2 , … is a set of independent and identically distributed random

variables.

In this section will explain about algorithms of the calculation of economic

capital using copula. This algorithms consist of two steps namely the first step to

analysis begins with the aggregation of each risks using LDA. The next step is to

use copula for calculating EC. Meanwhile, the procedures are the following:

203

a. The Aggregation of the risk with LDA

1) Determine the frequency distribution of 𝑁.

2) Determine the severity distribution of 𝑋.

3) Take randomly for N numbers from the frequency distribution, e.g the numbers

taken 𝑓𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑁.

4) Conduct random risks taking as much 𝑓𝑖 , for 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 of the severity

distribution, for example 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , … , 𝑋𝑓 with 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , … , 𝑋𝑓 independently.

𝑖 𝑖

∑𝑓𝑗=1

𝑖

𝑋𝑟,𝑗 , 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁.

1) Take a random sample for 𝑏 numbers from each compound distribution,

namely (𝐿1 , 𝐿2 )𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑏.

2) Transform (𝐿1 , 𝐿2 )𝑖 to (𝑢1 , 𝑢2 )𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑏 using cdf (cumulative density

function), so 𝑢𝑟 , 𝑟 = 1,2 range of the value between 0 and 1.

3) Determine a parameter to form copula chosen from (𝑢1 , 𝑢2 )𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑏,

namely 𝜃.

For step 4 to 6 using the Monte Carlo method.

4) Build new samples c from copula, (v1 , v2 )i , i = 1, … , c.

5) Transform (𝑣1 , 𝑣2 )𝑖 to (𝐿1 , 𝐿2 )𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑐 using the inverse cdf (cumulative

density function) in accordance with the origin loss distribution.

6) Then, to get the estimation of the value of EC, (𝐿1 + 𝐿2 )𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑐, sorted

from the the smallest value to the largest value determined percentile 99.9%.

2.5. Results

To obtain the EC value from two risks data using Clayton copula is

determined by the specified method in the algoritm above. In this simulation, the

samples used for 200 numbers were taken from each of the compound distribution

for calculating of the aggregation EC. Furthermore, from 200 samples were used to

build copula through the Monte Carlo method.

The samples were constructed from copula and had been transformed back

into the original distribution, sorted them from the smallest to the largest value then

determined percentile of 99.9 % which were estimated value of EC in the following

years. This simulation was executed 10 times and the number of samples used are

100 , 101 , 102 , 103 , 104 , 105 , dan 106. The result of the simulation is presented

in Figure 3.

204

FIGURE 3. The values of EC using a Clayton copula

Figure 3. illustrates that when the number of samples are 105 , then the

results of EC values using Clayton copula begin to converge to one value. This is

consistent with the statement Frachot, Georges, and Roncalli [3], which states that

the Monte Carlo simulation method will converge to one value for the total samples

of more than 100,000. The similar method is used to aggregation EC using Frank

copula. The results of the simulation are presented in Figure 4.

Based on Figure 4., it shows that the number of samples forming Copula 200

and variations in the number of samples indicate that the results of EC values using

Copula Frank start to convergence to the number of samples 105 . The details of EC

values for samples 105 dan 106 either using a Clayton or a Frank copula can be

seen in Table 1.

205

TABLE 1.The results of EC Values using Clayton and Frank copula.

The Values of EC The Number Standard Deviation

Types of Copula

(000 Rp) of Samples (000 Rp)

Clayton

14,882,810.634 10 6 10,893.068

14,904,997.101 105 23,095.367

Frank

6

14,914,849.292 10 10,337.822

Table 1 shows that the EC values are generated from each copula converge

to a single value when the number of samples are 106 . It is clearly seen that the

standard deviation of 106 is smaller than 105 . In addition, Table 1 also shows that

the values of EC using Clayton copula 0.21% smaller than the values of EC using

a Frank Copula.

3. Concluding Remarks

Based on the simulation conducted on the two types of risk for data toys by

using the number of samples forming Copula of 200, it can be concluded that the

results of the value of EC either using a Clayton copula or a Frank copula converge

to one value when the number of samples are 106 . It is clearly showed with

standard deviation for 106 is smaller than 105 . And the value of EC using Clayton

copula is smaller 0.21% than the value of EC using Frank copula.

References

[1] C. Alexander, Operational risk : Regulation, analysis and management,

London, Prentice Hall Financial Times, (2003).

[2] A. S. Chernobai, S. T. Rachev, and F. J. Fabozzi, Operational risk: A guide to

basel II capital requirements, models, and analysis, New Jersey, John Willey

& Son, (2007).

[3] A. Frachot, P. Georges, and T. Roncalli, Loss distribution approach for

operational risk, France, Gropu de Recherche Operationenelle, Credit

Lyonnais, (2001).

[4] C. Genest and J. Mackay, The joy of copulas: Bivariate distribution with

uniform marginals, The American Statistician, 40(4), 280-283, (1986).

[5] C. Genest and L. P. Rivest, Statistical inference procedures for Bivariate

Archimedean copulas, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88,

423, 1034-1043, (1993).

[6] J. Li, X. Zhu, J. Chen, L. Gao, J. Feng, D. Wu, and X. Sun, Operational risk

aggregation across business lines based on frequency dependence and loss

dependence, Hindawi Publishing Corporation, 8, (2014).

206

[7] Z. Lu, Modeling the yearly Value-at-Risk for operational risk in Chinese

commercial banks, Mathematics And Computers In Simulation, 82, 604-616,

(2011).

[8] M. Mahfoud, Bivariate archimedean copulas: an application to two stock

market indices, Amsterdam, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, (2012).

[9] A. McNeil, R. Frey, and P. Embrechts, Quantitative risk management:

Concepts, techniques, and tools, New Jersey, Princenton University Press,

(2005).

[10] O. Momen, A. Kimiagari, and E. Noorbakhsh, Modelling the operational risk

in Iranian commercial banks: Case study of a private bank, Journal of

Industrial Engineering International (8:15), (2012).

[11] H. H. Panjer, Operational risk modeling analytics, New Jersey, John Wiley

dan Sons, (2006).

[12] E. Pradier, Copula theory: An application to risk modeling, Ensimag:

Research Project Report, Grenoble INP, (2011).

[13] T. Schmidt, Coping with copulas, In Copulas-from theory to applications in

finance, Germany, Department of Mathematics, University of Leipzig, (2006).

[14] J.Shim, S. H. Lee, and R. MacMinn, Measuring economic capital : Value at

risk, expected tail loss and copula approach, Illinois Wesleyan University,

(2009).

[15] Q. J. Tang and G. H. Sun, Measuring dependence risks of funds with copula in

China, Applied Mathematics,5, 1863-1869, (2014).

[16] Y. K. Tse, Nonlife acturial models: Theory, methods, and evaluation,

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, (2009)..

[17] G. G. Venter, Tails of copulas, In Proceedings ASTIN Washington, (pp. 68-

113), USA, (2001).

[18] D. Clayton, A model for association in bivariate life tables and its application

in epidemiological studies of family tendency in chronic disease incidence,

Biometrika, 65, 141-151, (1978).

207

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Mathematics Education

Communication Skill for Junior High School by

Applying React (Relating, Experiencing,

Applying, Cooperating, and Transferring)

Learning Strategy

Della Afrilionita1,a)

1

Senior High School Islam Al-Azhar

a)

dellaafrilionita@gmail,com

Abstract. According to the observation and the pre-test result in Grade 7 of 99 Jakarta Junior

High School, it’s seen that the students’ mathematical communication skill is relatively in the

low level. REACT learning strategy can be one of the alternatives of mathematics learning in

the classroom to increase that skill. REACT learning strategy consists of five steps, those are:

relating, experiencing, applying, cooperating, and transferring, which can increase the

mathematical communication skill in each steps, respectively. The objective of this research

is to increase the students’ mathematical communication skill in grade 7 at 99 Jakarta Junior

High School. This is a classroom action research that conducted in three cycles. Every cycle

has four steps, those are planning, practicing, observation, and reflection. There is post-test in

every ending of cycles for measuring their mathematical communication skill. This research

was conducted from September until October 2014. The result shows that the mathematics

learning process through REACT learning strategy increase the students’ mathematical

communication skill. This is shown by the gaining of the average test score.

Keywords and Phrases: Mathematical Communication, REACT Learning Strategy,

Classroom Action Research.

1. Introduction

Education is an important aspect in improving the quality of a nation.

Quality of education will certainly be able to transform students into individuals

who have the required competence. To produce a quality nation, of course,

necessary to increase the quality of education in various fields, including

mathematics. Mathematics is a science that has a big role in everyday life.

Mathematics as a branch of science education can be used as a barometer to

measure the students’ ability, for example in logic skills, optimization skills,

prediction skills, analytical skills, and many others. Mathematics is used in the

branches of science as a medium of proofs, calculations, estimations, and others.

More or less, the level of mastery of mathematics will determine the quality of

educational outcomes for learners. Students’ (learners) mastery of mathematics in

208

Indonesia can be seen by the report of The Trends in International Mathematics

and Science Study (TIMSS) whose aim to measure the achievements of

mathematics and science students in the participating countries, including

Indonesia. TIMSS study results showed that the Indonesian position is far below

the countries around. In 2011, Singapore was ranked second, Malaysia was 26th,

Thailand was 28th, while Indonesia was 42nd. The low of students’ mathematical

communication skills demonstrated in Rohaeti’s study that the average score of

students' mathematical communication skills are in low qualification [11].

Meanwhile Purniati states that students’ responses to the mathematical

communication problems is generally low [10].

Further the test was conducted at preliminary research in August 2014 to

students grade 7 at 99 Jakarta Junior High School. The material was tested on five

numbers in the form of essays, which requires students to write the steps of solving

problem completely in order to measure the students' mathematical communication

skills accurately. From the 36 students who took the tests, it’s obtained that the

average score of the test is 39.44. The result of preliminary research can be seen in

the following table:

TABLE 1. Preliminary Test Score of Students Mathematical Communication

Percentage

Score of Mathematical Number of

Criteria of The Number

Communication (%) Students

of Students (%)

90 < Score 100 0 0

Very Good

80 < Score 90 0 0

70 < Score 80 1 2,78

Good

60 < Score 70 3 8,33

50 < Score 60 3 8,33

Fair

40 < Score 50 7 19,44

30 < Score 40 11 30,56

Low

20 Score 30 6 16,67

10 Score 20 3 8,33

Very Low

0 Score 10 2 5,56

Sum 36 100

by students of grade 7 at 99 Jakarta Junior High School during the preliminary

study is 39.44 with the highest score of 75 and the lowest score of 10. Based on the

table above, it can be seen that there is no student who has the mathematical

communication skills with very good category, while almost half of the number of

students in the class have a mathematical communication skills in low category and

209

there are 5 students with mathematical communication skills that are in very low

category. From this data it can be seen the level of students' mathematical

communication skills are relatively low.

Based on observations and interviews in the preliminary research, it is

known that some factors become the students’ difficulty in solving the test

questions, including difficulties in translating or interpreting the language

problems; difficulties in using the common variables to answer the questions; and

difficulties students in mastering the basic of algebra shown by mistake in

changing the form of equations and algebraic error in calculation. Another factor

that is found in this preliminary research are mathematics learning strategies are

less motivated students to interact each others and use their ability to communicate

a problem and its solution.

This fact certainly makes teachers feel need to improve the factors that

support the achievement of learning goals, one of which is to improve the learning

strategy. Selecting the appropriate strategy and suitable with the students’

characteristics will help them to receive the lessons and apply it in daily life

situation. REACT learning strategy (Relating, Experiencing, Applying,

Cooperating, and Transferring) is a learning that involves five aspects: linking the

concept to be learned with sommething the student already knows (relating),

Hands-on activities and teacher explanation allow students to discover new

knowledge (experiencing), application the knowledge to the real-world situation

(applying), provides the opportunity for students to learn through collaboration

(cooperating), and provides the opportunity for students to transfer knowledge into

new contexts (transferring). In this research, REACT learning strategy is expected

to be an appropriate alternative as an effort to improve the mathematical

communication skills of students grade 7 at 99 Jakarta Junior High School.

Literatur Review

In the first, REACT learning strategy developed in the United States. REACT

strategy is one of learning strategy that based on contextual learning (learning

system that tries brain actions to crating patters that have meaning). REACT

strategy contains five essential forms of learning: Relating, Experiencing,

Applying, Cooperating, and Transferring.

Relating. Relating is learning in the context of life experiences. In this step,

teachers uses relating as a tool by presenting situations completely familiar to the

student and extracting new concepts or developing deeper understanding of

concepts from those situations. Experiencing. Experiental learning takes events

and learning out of the abstract thought and brings them into concrete exploration,

discovery, and invention. In this step, teachers can do some hands-on learning

experience. Applying. Applying is learning concepts and information in a useful

situation. Students apply a concept when they can apply their real world

experienced to their problem-solving activities. Teachers can motivate students by

making problems realistic and relevant to students’ life. Cooperating. Cooperative

learning is based on the belief that learning is inherently social. Cooperating is

learning in the context of sharing, responding, and communicating with other

learners. Cooperating learning has a positive effect on students’ achievement,

interpersonal relatinships, and communication skills. It also improves students’

attitudes toward the opposite gender and toward other racial and ethnic groups. In

cooperating step, students can improve their oral communication skills.

210

Transferring. Transferring is using knowledge-existing or newly acquired- in a

new context or situation. This step is learning in the context of existing knowledge,

or transferring, uses and builds upon what the students already knows. Learning

mathematics using REACT strategy is expected to change the way students

learning to a meaningful learning. Students will learn to find their own concepts of

the material being studied and are expected to understand the mathematical

concepts and be able to communicate the solution of a mathematical problem [8].

Ministry of National Education states that the mathematical communication

skill is the students’ ability to be able to express and interpret mathematical ideas,

either orally, in writing, drawing, or demonstrating the mathematical problems.

According to Utari Sumarmo cited by Gusni satriawati, mathematical communication

skill is an ability that can be included and contains a variety of opportunities to

communicate in a variety of forms. The forms are as follows:

a. Reflecting the real objects, drawings, and diagrams into mathematical

ideas.

b. Create a model of the situation or problem using oral, written, concrete,

and graphics.

c. Declare a daily occurrence in the language or mathematical symbols.

d. Listening, discussing, and writing about mathematics.

e. Read with understanding a written mathematical presentation.

f. Make a conjecture, make the argument, definition, and generalization.

g. Explain and make inquiries about mathematics that have been studied.

Meanwhile, according to Sullivan & Mosley in Rofiah, mathematical communication

is not merely express ideas through writing, but, more broadly, the ability of students

in terms of talking, explaining, describing, listening, inquiring, clarifying, in

collaboration (sharing), writing, and finally report on what has been learned.

Based on some definition of mathematical communication skills as described

above, it can be said that the mathematical communication skills is the ability of

students to express their understanding of mathematics, among others include the

ability of stating, demonstrate and interpret ideas mathematically from a contextual

problem in the form of descriptions into mathematics models (pictures, graphs, charts,

tables, and equations) or otherwise, either orally or in writing.

Methodology

The research of students’ mathematical communication skill is conducted to

explore how the implementation of REACT learning strategy can encourage the

student of grade 7 at 99 Jakarta Junior High School and to find out the effectiveness of

REACT (Relating, Experiencing, Applying, Cooperating, and Trasferring) in

increasing their mathematical communication skill. To conduct such research, the

method that used is classroom action research.

Classroom Action Research (CAR) is a form of reflective activity intended to

deepen the understanding of the actions during the learning process and improve the

weaknesses that still occur in the learning process and also to realize the objectives of

the learning process. The procedure of classroom action research is conducted in a

systematic and involves repeated reflection at each cycle. Each cycle consists of four

activities: planning, implementation, observation, and reflection. If in the cycle there

is no expected change, then the cycle will be repeated by holding the improvements to

the data obtained from various sources related to the focus of the research was

211

relatively similar /repetitive. In other words, this research will be terminated if the data

obtained is already saturated/stable.

2. Main Result

The data obtained in this research showed the increament of the score of the

mathematical communication skill conducted from preliminary research to the 3rd

cycle. The increament can be seen in the diagram below.

40

35

30

Percentage

25

20

15

10

5

0

11 - 21 - 31 - 41 - 51 - 61 - 71 - 81 - 91 -

0 - 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Pre-test 5,56 8,33 16,67 30,56 19,44 8,33 8,33 2,78 0 0

Post-test 1st Cycle 0 0 0 2,78 11,11 13,89 36,11 33,33 2,78 0

Post-test 2nd Cycle 0 0 0 2,78 8,33 5,56 33,33 22,22 19,44 8,33

Post-test 3rd Cycle 0 0 0 2,78 0 8,33 11,11 25 38,89 13,89

from Preliminary Research to The 3rd Cycle

Below is the figure of the results of mathematical communication skill

grouping students into five categories: very good, good, fair, low, and very low

conducted from preliminary research to the 3rd cycle.

212

Based on the findings in this research, it is known that the students'

mathematical communication skills was increase by using REACT learning

strategy. By enhancing the ability of mathematical communication, students are

expected to improve their ability in other mathematical aspects. In REACT

learning strategy, students are required to become a center of learning through the

five steps: relating, experiencing, applying, cooperating, and transferring.

In Relating, students observe and linking the material being studied with

everyday life that is close to the students. In this case, teacher can helps students

construct their knowledge by asking questions relating to materials, or to give an

explanation of the phenomena that occur in everyday life. Students were

enthusiastic to know the relation of the material being studied with the students’

life, as students assume that by knowing the benefits of the material being studied

with everyday life, the lessons will be easier and can be imagined. Students

become ask questions more frequenty or simply express their opinions, so that it

stimulates students' mathematical communication skills orally.

In Experiencing, students will learn by experience. Students work on an

activity to acquire new knowledge. With his own experience, students are given an

understanding or formula quickly and not easily forgotten. Students were praticing

in this phase to absorb the mathematical ideas given. Students were enthusiastic

because at this step, the students didn’t work individually, but together with their

team. Through the discussion, students share the ideas and teach each other in

completing the activity, so that these group discussions help students to

communicate with other learners (Cooperating).

Applying step was help students to write the answers communicatively.

Students was practicing to solve some contextual problems. At this step, the

students' mathematical communication skills was honed. Furthermore, after the

students solve the problems, students transferring their knowledge into new

situations. In this case, the students did a presentation so that the students could

deliver their knowledge to other students. When the students were presenting,

teachers instructed the students from other groups to ask questions or simply

respond to the presentation.

The application of the REACT strategy stimulated students to do continual

communication, both oral and written, so that students have the opportunity to

improve their mathematical communication skills through this learning strategy.

The description above shows that the use of REACT learning strategy is a factor to

increase the students' mathematical communication skills in mathematics.

Therefore, it can be concluded that the REACT learning strategy can increase the

ability of students' mathematical communication.

References

[1] R. Aisyah, Peningkatan Kemampuan Berpikir Kreatif Siswa SMP Melalui

Pembelajaran Matematika dengan Strategi Relating, Experiencing,

Applying, Cooperating, Transferring (REACT) (The Increament of Creative

Thinking Ability of Junior High School Students by Mathematics Learning

Using REACT Learning Strategy), Bachelor Thesis, Bandung: Universitas

Pendidikan Indonesia., (2013)

213

[2] Armiati, Peningkatan Kemampuan Penalaran Matematis, Komunikasi

Matematis, dan Kecerdasan Emosional Mahasiswa melalui Pembelajaran

Berbasis Masalah (The Increament of Mathematical Reasoning Skill,

Mathematical Communication Skill, and Emotional Intelegences of Students

by Applying The Problem Based Learning Method), PhD Thesis. Bandung:

Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, (2011)

[3] CORD, REACT (learning strategy), Texas: CORD Communication Inc,

(1999)

[4] CORD, Teaching Mathematics Contextually: The Cornestone of Tech Prep,

Waco, Texas: CORD Communication, Inc, (1999)

Students' Attitudes Toward Mathematics, Journal, Nebraska: University of

Nebraska-Lincoln, (2008)

[6] J. R. Fraenkel, How to Design and Evaluate Research in Education 7th

Edition, New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc, (2009)

[7] Huggins, Communication in Mathematics, Canada: St. Xavier University,

(1999)

[8] M.L. Crawford, Teaching Contextually: Research, Rational, and Techniques

for Improving Student Motivation and Achievement in Mathematics and

Science, [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.cord.org., (2001)

for International Student Assessment, USA: OECD Publications, (2010)

[10] Purniati, Pembelajaran Matematika Geometri Berdasarkan Tahap-tahap

Awal Van Hiele dalam Upaya Meningkatkan Kemampuan Komunikasi siswa

SLTP (Mathematics Learning of Geometry Based on Van Hiele Early Fases

in order to Increase The Mathematical Communication Skill of Junior High

School Students), Master Thesis, Bandung: Universitas pendidikan

Indonesia, (2003)

Pemahaman dan Kemampuan Komunikasi Matematik Siswa SLTP (Improve

Learning Method for Increasing the Mathematical Understanding and

Mathematical Communication Skill of Junior High School Students), Master

Thesis, Bandung: Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, (2003)

214

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Mathematics Education

The Properties of Solid Figure by Using Daily

Life Context

Lestariningsih1,a)

1

Doctoral Student of Surabaya State University (Unesa), Gedung K9 Kampus Unesa

Ketintang Surabaya

a) lestari.med@gmail.com

Abstract. The aim of this research is to investigate students’ spatial visualization in the properties

of solid figure by using daily life context. Pendidikan Matematika Realistik Indonesia (PMRI) is

chosen as an approach because researcher in the learning process used context and it’s in line with

PMRI characteristics [1]. This research use the descriptive research method. Data are collected by

using students’ worksheet, video recording and interview some students to get deeper information

of their spatial visualization. Based on the result by investigating from findings and the data

obtained in this research, it can be concluded that students can think about solid figure properties

if they see these objects oftent in daily life activities such as objects that have cube, cuboid or

prism form. However, they find difficulties to make sketch related to objects that combine more

than one kind of solid figures then it can be solved by classroom discussion.

Keywords and Phrases: spatial visualization, daily life context, PMRI

1. Introduction

Geometry is one of the oldest mathematical sciences. Geometry is the visual

study of shapes, sizes, patterns, and positions. It occurred in all cultures, through at

least one of these five strands of human activities namely building/ structures,

machines/motion, navigating/star-gazing, art/patterns, measurement [2].

Considering the importance of geometry in human activities, geometry has been

taught in Indonesia from elementary school, junior high and senior high school [3].

Furthermore, students can also study geometry in college or university.

In Indonesian junior high school, one of important students’ abilities is

capable in using spatial visualization. Students in Junior High School have been

supposed that they can imagine abstract object. To support this, Indonesian

Curriculum of mathematics in Junior High School has 62% material about

geometry [4]. In the second semester of grade VIII, there is topic in geometry

namely solid figures. The competence that must be achieved by students is

understanding the properties of cube, cuboids, prism, pyramid, their elements and

their size that consist of three categories, those are identifying the characteristic of

cube, cuboids, prism, and pyramid, making the net of cube, cuboids, prism, and

pyramid, and calculating surface area and volume of cube, cuboids, prism, and

pyramid.

215

However, based on my observation, the topic of solid figure especially

about the properties of cube, cuboids, prism, pyramid, their elements and their size

is given directly in the classroom. Teachers teach this material by directly giving

the table of properties of cube, cuboids, prism, pyramid, their elements and their

size to students. On the other hand, students directly read and give attention to the

explanation from their teacher without any question or solve challenging problems.

This is in line with the result from Safrina’s et.al. research [5] that stated students

find difficulty in understanding the geometry because of learning strategy used is

not appropriate with the material. This kind of learning make students feel boring

and can not develop their spatial visualization.

Spatial visualization in solid figure is an extremely important skill in many

fields involving science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, including the

geosciences [6]. Spatial visualization is a complex process that involves both visual

abilities and the formation of mental images [7]. Because of the importance of

spatial visualization across many disciplines, it has been studied by a wide variety

of workers in science, education, and cognitive psychology.

Considering the aforementioned issues, the aim of this research is to

investigate students’ spatial visualization in the properties of solid figure by using

daily life context.

To support this research, PMRI (Pendidikan Matematika Realistik

Indonesia) approach is chosen. PMRI is Indonesian version of RME (Realistic

Mathematics Education) that has been developed by Freudenthal Institute since

1970’s. Treffers in Wijaya (2008) state that there are five characteristics of RME

and in Indonesia become PMRI characteristics, namely: 1). phenomenological

exploration or the use of contexts, 2). using models and symbols for progressive

mathematization, 3). using students’ own construction and production, 4).

interactivity, 5).intertwining.

In PMRI, students can learn mathematics using context that can be found

easily in their environment. Moreover, anything that can be imagined by students

also can be used as context for learning mathematics.This research use many

things that usually were found by students in their daily life context.

This research use descriptive research method. Descriptive research method

is a method in research that describe the status of a group of people, an object, a

condition, a system of thought, or a class of events in the present [8]. The purpose

of this method is to make description in a systematic, factual and accurate

information on the facts, nature and the relationship between the phenomena

investigated.

2. Main Results

This research is conducted in the eighth grade SMPN (Sekolah Menengah

Pertama Negeri) I Palembang, a junior high school located at Pangeran Aria

Kesuma Abdurrahim, Bukit Kecil, Talang Semut, Palembang. As an apperception,

students were asked about the net of cube and cuboids that had been studied before.

One student mentioned the requirement of net that can be formed as cube or

cuboids.

216

Furthermore, students are given three problems namely drawing solid figures

and gives their names from an object given, determining the number of face, edge,

vertex from the object in the first problem and determining the relationship

between the number of face, edge and vertex that refers to Euler’s formula.

Students are asked to solve these problems related solid figure as shown in figure

1.

classroom as shown in figure 2. Some students gave their responses and for other

students that have different results could also present their work. One student

explained the solution for third problem because many students could not solve it.

Her explanation refers to Euler’s formula.

Moreover, students made conclusion from their learning process that the

total number of vertices and faces is always two more than edges.

Analysis

Students easily work to classify and sketch some solid figures of objects.

They can sketch the object that has cube shape and mentioned it well. Also for

object that has pyramid shape, they can sketch it easily. Furthermore, for question

that shows the picture of some glasses, students clearly sketch the picture to be

cylinder. This case happened again for question that shows the object with cuboids

shape.

217

However, some students find difficulty to make sketch from the picture of

ring case that has prism shape. Beside, they also unsure whether the name from this

object that already wrote are correct or false because they seldom meet with such

object in learning material for mathematics. Actually this kind of problem is part of

learning material in solid figure.

Moreover, many students cannot solve for first problem especially number 6

and 8. For problem number 6 namely the picture of pencil, some students think that

this object has cylinder shape but they doubt with their answer because the end of

point is sharp as shown in figure 3. Some students argue that it has the cone shape,

yet the solid has the cylinder part. This conflict leads to classroom discussion and

they can answer that the pencil has two shapes of solid figure namely cylinder and

cone.

Students find difficulty in the first problem number 8 that shows the picture

of a slice of watermelon (figure 4). There are many kinds of students’ answers

because they have different idea from this object. Some students think that this is a

half of watermelon and then they sketch a half of sphere. Another student has an

idea that he must sketch a quarter of sphere since it is a quarter of watermelon. Also,

other students conclude that the object is one eighth of watermelon so that they

make sketch of one eighth of sphere. Of course, these different ideas among

students lead to discussion and as a result, they can come to the right answer.

218

There are students that also had confused to count the number of face,

edge, and vertex of pencil and a slice of watermelon (figure 4). Then, one of them

told that pencil had one vertex, three faces, and two edges and a slice of

watermelon consisted of two vertexes, three faces, and three edges.

Moreover, most of students found difficulty to determine the relationship

between the numbers of vertices, faces, and edges. However, there is a student that

could find it and explained in front of classroom. She said that we can determine

the relationship between them using Euler’s Formula.

3. Concluding Remarks

Based on the result by investigating from findings and the data obtained in

this research, we can conclude that students can think about solid figures easily if

these objects are often they see in daily life activities such as objects that have

cube, cuboids or prism form. However, they found difficulties to make sketch

related to objects that combine more than one kind of solid figures for instance:

pencils, or watermelon that didn’t have sphere form. Moreover, they could know

the relationship between the number of faces, vertexes and edges using Euler’s

Formula.

References

[1] Lestariningsih, R.I.I. Putri, and Darmayijoyo, The Legend of Kemaro Island

for Supporting Students in Learning Average, IndoMS Journal on

Mathematics Education, Volume 3(2): 165-174 , (2012)

[2] Cornell University, What Is Geometry?, Retrieved from

http://www.math.cornell.edu/~mec/What_is_Geometry.pdf , (2015)

[3] Kemdikbud, Kompetensi Dasar Sekolah Menengah Pertama (SMP)/Madrasah

Tsanawiyah (MTs), Retrieved from http://www.pendidikan-

diy.go.id/file/mendiknas/kurikulum-2013-kompetensi-dasar-smp-ver-3-3-

2013.pdf, (2013)

[4] F.N. Ngaini, B.P. Darminto, and W. Ika, Studi Komparasi Model Pembelajaran

Matematika Tipe Jigsaw Dan Tipe STAD Pada Siswa Kelas VIII, Retrieved from

http://download.portalgaruda.org/article.php?article=129026&val=612, (2013)

[5] K. Safrina, M. Ikhsan, and A. Ahmad, Peningkatan Kemampuan Pemecahan

Masalah Geometri melalui Pembelajaran Kooperatif Berbasis Teori Van

Hiele, Jurnal Didaktik Matematika, 1(1): 9- 20, (2014)

Skills, Journal of Geoscience Education, 57(4): 242-254, (2009)

[7] J.H. Mathewson, Visual-spatial thinking: an aspect of science overlooked by

educators, Science and Education, 83: 33-54, (1999)

[8] Sudjana and Ibrahim, Penelitian dan Penilaian Pendidikan, Bandung : Sinar

Baru Algesindo, (1989)

219

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Mathematics Education

Mathematics for Three Digit Addition

Aloysius Ajowembun1,a), Falenthino Sampuow2,b),Wiwik

Wiyanti3,c), and Johannes H. Siregar4,d)

1,2,3,4

STKIP Surya

a)

aloysius.natalis@students.stkipsurya.ac.id

b)

falenthino.sampouw @students.stkipsurya.ac.id

c)

wiwik.wiyanti@stkipsurya.ac.id

d)

Johannes.siregar@stkipsurya.ac.id

Abstract. Surya College of Education (STKIP Surya) is a college where the students

representatives from various local governments. The majority of students come from mountainous

areas of Papua. For every first-year student at Surya STKIP, they are not directly following the

lectures as in the other campus, but students have to follow the matriculation activities. Based on

observations during matriculation activities for this year, many students still use their fingers or

tally mark to answer the addition question. With this condition, we intend to investigate by giving

treatment to use Matematika GASING. Matematika GASING is a way of learning mathematics in

an easy, fun, and enjoyable fashion. GASING is short for (Bahasa Indonesia) GAmpang, aSyIk,

and menyenaNGkan. It was originally developed by Prof. Yohanes Surya to improve the

mathematics ability of Indonesia’s students. The focus of our research is how to add three digit

number by using Matematika GASING. The subject is 28 students in matriculation class at STKIP

Surya. The research method used in this study is qualitative research. To collect the data,

researchers conducted classroom observation, interview and documentation. Then the date was

analyzed to show Matematika GASING can improve matriculation students ability in learning

mathematics for three digit addition.

Keywords and Phrases: Matematika GASING, three digit addition, qualitative research.

1. Introduction

According to Law of Republic Indonesia No. 20/2003 article 1 verse 8

about National Education System in Indonesia [5], the education system in

Indonesia has been divided into several levels. As the students need to continue

their education level then it is compulsory for them to meet some requirements.

Like for example, every students who want to get to junior high school level then

they first have to be graduated from the elementary school level. The same process

applied in STKIP Surya. Every student in this college of education need to

complete the matriculation class in their first year of college. In this matriculation

class, all topics in mathematics in the lower level of education before will be

reviewed before they face harder topics in college level.

Based on the observation which is done in matriculation class of 2015,

there are still some students use their finger on doing calculation. Moreover, tutor

has stated it is true for some of students in matriculation that calculating is difficult

enough to be done without using fingers. However, all matriculation students were

220

graduated from senior high school and students have started to learn calculating

since they were in primary school.

It is necessary to be known that, STKIP Surya is a college of education

which is coordinated with some governmental provinces in Indonesia in providing

the scholarship for some selected students. Most of students in this college of

education come from the eastern point of Indonesia like Papua, Kupang, and

Maluku.

In this study, we applied Matematika GASING to increase the students skill

on doing 3 digits addition. Matematika GASING was developed in STKIP Surya

(was founded by Prof. Yohanes Surya as the founder of STKIP Surya) for the

importance of helping the students in learning mathematics [3]. In addition, some

studies which are done by Surya and Moss [4], Wiyanti and Wakhyuningsih [6],

Siregar [1] have proved that Matematika GASING has helped in increasing

students’ grade in mathematics. And for this study, researchers use qualitative

descriptive method for the data analysis. We expect that Matematika GASING can

increase students’ skill for three addition. The purpose of this research is to show

that, there is an increase in the matriculation participant’s skill in the Matematika

GASING for three digit addition. The research is focused on the Matematika

GASING for three addition. The research was done on 17th– 24th September 2015.

The participants of the research were students of matriculation class in STKIP

Surya, who came from Papua. STKIP Surya is a teacher’s college located in

Tangerang, Indonesia. The research method used qualitative. This method is to

make researchers as an main instrument [2], so data be obtained from observation,

interview and making documentation what is done by researchers. And to see an

increase on the ability of the students for three digit addition, researchers used

pretest and posttest. Not only to see student abilities but also, students can do three

digit addition by Matematika GASING. There are 3 steps in qualitative method

according to Miles and Huberman (rewritten by Sugiyono) [2]; 1). Data reduction

(researchers focused on the important data); 2). Data Display (Researchers displays

the data); 3). Conclusion Drawing/Verification (Researchers make conclusion and

verification about the data). This research is considered successful when

participants gain score 90 on their posttest.

2. Main Results

2.1. Theoretical Framework

Matematika Gasing

Surya dan Moss [7], said “Math GASING Method shows how to change

concrete sample into an abstract symbol so the students will be able to read a

mathematical pattern, thus gain the conclusion by themselves”. Matematika

GASING having a critical point was believed that if students can pass through and

realy understand this, students can finish various problem that related with that

critical point. Those supported with the result research conducted by some

researchers, one of them is Siregar. Siregar [4] concluded that student was pass

critical point of Matematika GASING was good on their posttest.

To understand the addition of three digits with three digits numbers,

students must pass the additions critical point of Matematika GASING. Besides,

221

students must know 100-999 numbers. It is also important for them to know the

place of value concepts for each numbers [6].

1. Knowing the number of 100 – 999

Introducing the number 100-900 to students can be done by using a green

rectangular stick consists of ten cubes in each. One rectangular stick represents ten

then when teachers take 9 of the stick, they said that it is ninety. Teachers need to

explain that there will be a blue rectangular stick to represent hundreds. Students

have to recognize that 100 green rectangular stick is equal to one blue rectangular

stick represent hundreds. The Figure 2.1 below shows how 10 green rectangular

sticks is equal to one blue rectangular stick.

Teachers show a blue rectangular stick as a hundred and a red square as

ones. Then, teacher can say “well, this is one hundred and one, written 101”. Apply

the same way to show the number 102-109. Figure 2.2 below as illustration to

know the number of 101.

Teachers show a blue rectangular stick as a hundred and a green

rectangular stick to represent ten. Then teachers can say “well, this is one hundred

and ten, written 110”. Teacher can apply the same way to show the number of 120-

190. Figure 2.3 below as illustration to know the number of 110.

222

FIGURE 2.3 Knowing the number of 110

4. The number of 111

Teacher show a blue rectangular stick as a hundreds, a green rectangular to

represent tens and a red square as ones, teachers said this a hundred eleven. Do the

same way to know the number of 112 and so on.

5. Adding Three Digits and Three Digits Numbers

Once student proficient in knowing 100 – 999 numbers, next they can start

doing the addition of three digits with three digits numbers. By doing this kind of

addition means that students have also learnt in adding the three digits number with

a single digit and three digits with double digit number. Example 2.1 shows the

process in adding three digits and three digits numbers [6].

Example 2.1 Example addition three digits with three digits number.

As above, the addition between three digits number and three digits

number must be done based on the place of value of numbers. Watch addition

253 + 169 as on Example 2.1, the first students must add up in the value of

hundreds of namely place 2 + 1 = 3, then dozens, namely 5 + 6 = 11, we write

one small above and one ( 11). One small on said that hundreds of because we

addition is the value of tens or 50 + 60 the result of 110. Next, addition in the

value of a unit 3 + 9 = 12, we wrote 1 small and two( 12). One small above

declare tens because 3 + 9 = 12, where 1 is occupying the value of the tens. Then

we combine 𝟑 𝟏𝟏 𝟏𝟐 becomes 𝟒𝟐𝟐. So that, 253 + 169 = 3 11 12 = 𝟒𝟐𝟐.

In doing addition like what is written in Example 2.1 then we need to

apply the same way by focusing on the place of value concept of numbers we add.

The addition process is started from the first number as hundreds then follow to the

last numbers as ones. Moreover, we do need to concern on the result we get. It is

important that adding numbers as ones and ones may produce tens. Another case

happen while adding numbers as tens and tens may produce hundreds. Then

numbers which have the same place of value can be combined.

223

2.2. Discussion

Based on the learning process, students have shown significant

improvements proven by the increasing of the score between pretest and posttest.

One of the students get eight points higher in posttest compared to pretest and

another student named Piter has finally reach a maximum score in posttest after ge

got 40 as his pretest score. From lessons and also score of pretest and posttest,

students shown increased. The low score on pretest because Piter did not answer

questions about addition three digits, as shown in Figure 2.5.

FIGURE 2.5. Piters sheets before and after learning three digit addition with

Matematika GASING

Based on analysis was done with what obtained by Piter, it can be said that

before being treatment, Piter not understand addition three digits. But, after taught

matter a sum three digits with three digits using Matematika GASING, Piter were

able to answer the questions in posttest. This is futher strengthened with the results

of interviews with Piter, he confirmed that before learned with Matematika

GASING, Piter do not yet understand addition three digits with three digits. The

other thing we can see for number 22 and 23 on posttest, Peter using Matematika

GASING (like Example 2.1) to finish the problem. Besides that, according to

researchers observation, Peter get early time to finish all problems when posttest

compared his pretest. So, researchers believe that Matematika GASING give impact

to enhance his ability on doing three digits addition.

The other students also get increased result on posttest then pretest. Some

of them who did not answer or given the wrong answer on pretest, can give the true

answer at posttest with the same type problems that equal to pretest. On Figure 2.6

is an example of the work of student matriculation named Erikson. Erikson is one

of the students who get 100 score on posttest (solve all posttest properly). The

same thing received score more than 92 in posttest also obtained by other named

Sumani, Robeka and Timothy.

224

(a) Pretest (b) Posttest

FIGURE 2.6 Pretest and posttest sheets by Erikson

Could obviously to see that on the question of the same type (different number),

Erikson given the wrong answer on pretest and true answer on posttest. Not only

that, when pretest, there are questions that not answered by Erikson but on posttest,

Erikson capable of got the right answer. Other case, on pretest and posttest there is

a trap question which is number 26 on pretest and number 18 on posttest. On

pretest, Erikson gives answer 906. This shows that Erikson answer it without the

knowledge that the addition should be based also by place of value. After a

teaching, Erikson can answer the same question on posttest (see number 18 on

Figure 2.6) properly. What that Erikson do, also carried out by his friends named

Robeka and Sumani.

Besides those mentioned above, namely students who got the significant

increase in score, there is also one student namely Simion that got insignificant

increase in score. He got 40 on pretest and be 48 on posttest. This definitely does

not achieve the success indicators that researchers ratified. After researchers

analysis what Simion do and during the teaching process, researchers concluded

that Simeon is one of weak students in receiving treatment learning as the teacher

do. It strengthened after the researchers interviewed her tutor before researchers

given a treatment (learning with Matematika GASING). Even strengthen by

Simions statement when researchers interviewed. Based on interview with Simion,

researchers found that Simion have first time to learning from introduction the

number of hundred until three digits addition.

Overall students of matriculation got increased score on math addition

three digits after taught using Matematika GASING. With one student that only got

increased 8 points, which is still less than indicator that researchers decreed. But

the other students can passed and got more than 90 score.

Based on the conclusion above, the following are recommended:

1) Matematika GASING is strongly recommended to be applied to teach three

digits addition for the students.

2) For the next research capability can consider learners in absorbing the

subjects given, so that researchers can focus to help students who really need

help (weak in absorb the material).

225

Acknowledgement

The authors would like to thank the Department of Mathematics at STKIP

Surya for facilitating this research, especially the students who participated. Special

thanks goes to Novi Purnama Sari and Edi Ramawijaya who gave translation

support.

References

[1] Siregar, et al, Learning the Critical Points for Addition in MATEMATIKA

GASING, Journal On Mathematics Education (IndoMS-JME) Vol. 5, 160-

169, (2014)

[2] Sugiyono, Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif dan R&D, Bandung:

Afabeta, (2011)

[3] Y. Surya, Modul Pelatihan Matematika GASING SD Vol. 1, PT Kandel,

(2013)

[4] Y. Surya and M. Moss, Mathematics Education in Rural Indonesia, Proc.

12th International Congress on Mathematics Education: Topic Study Group

30, pp.6223-6229, Seoul, (2012)

[5] Departemen Pendidikan Nasional, Undang-Undang Nomor 20 Tahun 2003,

Tentang Sistem Pendidikan Nasional, Jakarta: Depdiknas, (2003)

[6] W. Wiyanti and N.S. Wakhyuningsih, Penerapan Matematika GASING

(Gampang, ASyIk, menyenaNGkan) pada Materi Penjumlahan Dua Digit

dengan Dua Digit untuk Siswa Kelas 1 Sekolah Dasar Negeri Cihuni II

Kelapa Dua Tangerang, Proc. National Congress on Mathematics and

Mathematics Education: Topic Study Group C, pp. C11-C18, Malang, (2013)

226

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Mathematics Education

of Many Numbers for Matriculation Students

at STKIP Surya, Tangerang

Jenerson Otniel Duwit1,a), Delson Albert Gebze2,b),Wiwik

Wiyanti3,c), and Johannes H. Siregar4,d)

1,2,3,4

STKIP Surya

a)

jenerson.otniel@student.stkipsurya.ac.id

b)

delson.albert@student.stkipsurya.ac.id

c)

wiwik.wiyanti@stkipsurya.ac.id

d)

Johannes.siregar@stkipsurya.ac.id

Abstract. STKIP Surya is always attended by students from the region of Papua. for each new

academic year. Even they graduated from the high school level, they still feel difficult how to do

basic mathematics. Base on this condition, the matriculation class must be completed before the

program study class start, students are required to study again mathematics from elementary

school to high school level. At beginning of matriculation class, from preliminary test result show

that many students have difficulty to answer the question correctly, for example, from the

addition of many numbers question, such as 2 + 7 + 9 + 5 + 6 + 8 = ⋯ , 5 + 9 + 6 + 1 + 8 +

7 + 4 + 3 + 5 = ⋯. To answer this question, student still use their fingers and made their

calculation by using tally marks, which make them to get wrong answers. Hence, we present

Matematika GASING (Gampang, ASyIk, menyenaNGkan) for the addition of many numbers in

matriculation class. In Matematika GASING, the learning process come from concrete to abstract

and evaluated with mentally calculation when they can calculate without using paper and pencil.

To conduct this study, 28 matriculation students were selected as sample. The method which is

used in this research is qualitative research. Techniques of analysis in this study is conducted an

analysis per question between the pre-test post-test in the same categories. From the analysis

results, we conclude that the implementation of Matematika GASING for the addition of many

numbers can help improve students’ numeracy skills for students from Papua.

Keyword and Phrases: Matematika GASING, addition of many numbers, qualitative research,

matriculation class, Papuan students, streak system.

1. Introduction

Mathematics knowledge, interest and skills are basic to students’ success in

higher education and for life too. Indonesia is geographically spread out among so

many islands, certainly face a challenge in education gap achievement between

urban, rural and remote areas. Students in rural and remote areas have less

opportunity to develop the quality of knowledge and to move forward in achieving

particular goals [7]. To make improvement of rural education environment, those

students have to participate to the challenges of improving education in their place

as a teacher.

227

STKIP Surya, a teacher’s college, is facing this challenges by providing

matriculation progam for rural area students. Matriculation is pre-coursework that

is often applied in college in general. As the early stages of the pre-coursework,

students are introduced to the program to help students in terms of knowledge,

attitudes and behaviour to be able to adapt to the real atmosphere of lectures in

college. Because students have diverse capabilities, in matriculation class, students

are required to study again mathematics from elementary school to high school

level by using Matematika GASING.

Wakhyuningsih as a tutor (teacher of matriculation class) said, there are still

many students of academic year 2015 who have not mastered elementary school

math material well. At the time of the process of learning math, it found many

students who do not understand and cannot answer the question correctly whether

oral or written. Some students still difficult in working on the given problem and

they are working on using finger or tally marks to calculate. Example of student

work can be seen in Fig. 1.1.

As seen from the Fig. 1.1, this student has not mastered addition properly.

From this student’s work shows that the ability to deal with addition question by

counting with tally marks. If this condition is continued to be left without

improvement, that students will be hard to follow the program study lectures. As an

example, lecture for Number Theory, Basic Physics, Basic Statistics, Logic and Set

Theory in STKIP Surya requires that students have known basic introduction to

integers number well and its operations.

Other than this student from Papua still have some problems. The students

feel hard when they are doing basic mathematics operations from their teachers.

The fact found as result of investigation by interviewing with some students, said

their past teachers of mathematics subjects rarely come to the classroom and even

once a month, so this makes them difficult to master mathematics. Learning

mathematics are not meaningful for them, it was also discovered by Jensen in his

research, namely the meaningfulness of learning will not be achieved if learning

has no deep meaning, not touching to heart and private students [1]. Similarly, in a

study conducted on [7], claim that there are no children who could not learn math,

only children who have not had the opportunity to learn mathematics in a way that

is fun and meaningful.

There have been several studies of using Matematika Gasing for learning

mathematics. Surya and Moss found the fact that the mathematics subject is an

interesting study, but to grow the meaningfulness of the learning of mathematics

required way done in fun and exciting [7]. Therefore, learning to do the easy, fun

228

and enjoyable, Prof. Yohanes Surya, use Matematika GASING for learning

mathematics. Learning with Matematika GASING has been applied in the area of

Papua and the result was able to make new breakthroughs, that scored some world-

level Olympic champion from kids who came from rural regions, there is one

student from Papua. Wiyanti and Wakhyuningsih on the topic of addition for

elementary school students, found that students who have mastered the critical

point for addition are better at solving addition problems than those who have not

mastered it. Prahmana and Suwasti, on the topic of Local Instruction Theory on

Division in Mathematics GASING, describes how Matematika GASING make a

real contribution of students understanding in the concept of division operation [3].

Kusuma and Sulistiawati, on the topic of Teaching Multiplication of Numbers

using Matematika GASING, showed that Matematika GASING helped these

students to understand and be able to teach multiplication of numbers from 1 to 10

better [2]. Siregar, et al., on the topic of learning the critical points for addition in

Matematika GASING, show that there is an increase in the students’ skill for

addition and most students can teach for addition after learning with Matematika

GASING [4]. Based on these previous study, this study implemented Matematika

GASING for matriculation students learning in the addition of many number.

The purpose of the research is to find out if the implementation of

Matematika GASING can help improve the arithmetic skill on the addition of

many numbers for matriculation students from Papua region. This research topic is

covered for using Matematika GASING to the topic of addition of many numbers.

The research method is qualitative research. The matriculation class students who

comes from the region of Papua with the number of students is 28 students. The

research is said to be successful if there is an increase score from the results of pre

test to the results of post test.

2. Main Results

2.1 Matematika GASING

Learning mathematics using Matematika GASING is a way of learning math

that can be carried easy,fun and enjoyable. GASING stands for Gampang, ASyIk

dan menyenaNGkan, which is translated as easy, fun and enjoyable. Surya dan

Moss introduce Matematika GASING as “Math GASING method shows how to

change a concrete sample into an abstract symbol so the students will be able to

read a mathematical pattern, thus gain the conclusion by themselves” [7]. Teaching

mathematics in Mathematika Gasing start from concrete to abstract then evaluated

with mentally calculation when they can calculate without any aid such as using

paper and pencil. During the learning process by using Matematika GASING,

students must pass through a phase that was believed to be when students mastered

this phase, students will be able to work on a given problem easily. This phase is

called “GASING critical point” as shown in Figure 2.1 [6]. It can also be found in

the study on GASING critical point addition which done in [4], show about the

students who reach the passing grades for the mastery of the GASING critical

point, also followed the results of written test is improved and the result of mental

arithmetic is increased.

For addition, GASING critical point is mastery the addition of two numbers

whose sum less than 20. These steps to get to the critical point addition can be seen

229

on Figure 2.1, described as a ladder. Description numbers of each ladder is (1)

students should recognize the numbers 1-10, (2) students must master the addition

of the numbers 1-10, (3) students should recognize the numbers 11-19, (4) students

must master the addition of the numbers 11-19. Then after finishing fourth ladder,

student will reach the GASING critical point of addition.

4

3

2

1

After mastering the GASING critical point, then student will be introduced

to the addition of many numbers with “streak system”.

2.2 Addition of many numbers (more than 2 numbers) with streak system

According to [6], to add many numbers numbers in one digit with “streak

system”, it can be done as example 2.1. Note to learn about “streak system”,

students should know the place value of numbers in advance. The place value is the

value of the location of a digit in a number, for example, in number 13, the place

value of the 1 is "tens" and 3 is "ones"

streak number 9 (13 is greater than 10) and remember “ones” value is 3. Next, add

number 3 to the next number 8, then 3 + 8 = 11, streak number 8 (11 is greater than

10, remember “ones” value is 1. Next, add number 1 to the next number 1, then 1 +

1 = 2, there is no streak here (2 is not greater than 10). Next, add number 2 to the

next number 3, then 2 + 3 = 5, there is no streak here (5 is not greater than 10).

Next, add number 5 to the next number 3, then 5 + 3 = 8, there is no streak here (8

is not greater than 10). Last, add number 8 to the next number 7, then 8 + 7 = 15,

streak number 7 (15 is greater than 10). Number 5 is the result of ones place value,

230

and there are 3 streaks which count as the result of tens place value a number. Then

the result for addition of many numbers is 35.

The method of this research is using qualitative research method by

considering the learning process of mathematics study. Sugiono explained on

qualitative research researcher must go through the phase of description, focus and

selection [5]. In description phase, the researcher describe of what is seen, heard,

felt and asked, this is accomplished by interviewing students and tutors

(matriculation teachers). The conclusion from description phase is obtained that

students have different level of understanding and different way of solving

problems in mathematics. The next phase is focus phase, in this phase the

researcher focus on information obtained from description phase, information

about how student solve the problem is the focus in this research that will be

discussed. The last phase is selection phase, the researcher describe more detail

with depth analysis of obtained information from the conclusion of focus phase.

The selection phase in this research is the way students solved problem by using

Matematika Gasing with streak system. Figure 3.1. is shown three phase of

qualitative research method in this study. Phase 1 (description phase) done with the

obtained information that students have different way of solving problems in

mathematics. Phase 2 (focus phase) done with the obtained information about how

student solve the problem. Phase 3 (selection phase) done with the obtained

information about the way students solved problem by using Matematika Gasing

with streak system.

tutor and their record of daily test score. From these data, some students said that

they are still difficult to answer the addition problems, because of previous study

in their own places before has not been optimal. This fact is supported by

interviews with their tutor, Mrs. Wakhyuningsih, said that most students have not

231

been able to answer problems correctly because of language barrier and not yet

well understood about the problems.

In addition to this description phase, researchers found some interesting

things about some students have not been able to add up the addition problems of

"many numbers". For examples in addition of many numbers problems in Example

2.1, students also still use their finger and tally mark to solve addition calculation,

as shown on Figure 1.1. Not just the wrong result calculation, they still wrong

writing down the name of the number in the form of letters. For example number 7

in Indonesian language is TUJUH, but they write “TUJU” without H. For number

8, DELAPAN, they write “DERAPAN” where L is replaced with R. And then

written to “DELAFAN” where P is replaced with F, 18 written “DERAPAN

BELAS” where L that should have written DELAPAN replaced with R. There is

one student if he told to write down the number of tens for example 13, he can

write on paper or a whiteboard with the correct “TIGA BELAS”. However, if he

told to spell the number 13, he spelled not “TIGA BELAS” but “TIGA TRAS”.

This is an indication of the influence of habit speaking using local languages. Some

students while using visual aid in the process of learning, they quickly master the

material provided, however the next day when questioned without using visual aid

then they become confuse and get wrong answer.

The conclusion of description phase, researcher found students are weak to

make calculation, even for the problem of high school level, they are still using

tally mark as shown in Figure 1.1.

Focus phase on this research, a consideration of how student solved the

problems and why still get incorrectly answered the problems. They solved the

problems with the way of they learn in their previous study.

FIGURE 3.2.. Student’s work before and after having Matematika GASING

In selection phase, student learn using Matematika GASING for addition of

many number with streak system. Then after the learning process using

Matematika GASING, students are able to answer problem correctly, and this

consistent answer is correct for the given problem with the same type. The work of

one student can be seen in Figure 3.2.

The result about this study can be explained as following. The data has been

collected in the form of the score of the pre test and post test. By analyzing the test

score of the 28 students of matriculation class, the average score of pre test 75.83

and the average score of post test 95.85, their test score is increased. In addition,

from the results of interviewing some matriculation students, they said they were

very pleased to learn math by using Matematika GASING. According to them,

their learning are very easy to remember, process analytical study was very fun

because matriculation students play an active role as executor (demonstrated to

232

work on a given problem) and deeply enjoyable since using visual aid in the

learning process.

Based on the above description, Matematika GASING may help to improve

skills of matriculation students from Papua, particularly about addition of many

numbers. This can be seen from the results obtained, there is increasing score form

pre test to post test of matriculation students from Papua. Besides the learning

process outcome achievement, from the result of interviewing, students feel

enjoyable and fun when learning mathematics by Matematika GASING.

References

[1] E. Jensen, Teaching with the brain in mind, Association for Supervision and

Curriculum Development 1703 N, Beauregard St. Alexandria., (1998)

[2] J. Kusuma and Sulistiawati, Teaching Multiplication of Numbers Using

Matematika GASING, Journal On Mathematics Education (INdoMS-JME), Vol

5, No.2, Page 66 - 84, Palembang, (2014)

[3] R.C.I. Prahmana and P. Suwasti, Local Instruction Theory on Division in

Mathematics Gasing, Journal On Mathematics Education (INdoMS-JME), Vol

5, No.2, Page 17 - 26, Palembang, (2014)

[4] Siregar, et al, Learning The Critical Points for Addition in Matematika

GASING, Journal On Mathematics Education (INdoMS-JME), Vol 5, No.2,

Page 160-169, Palembang, (2014)

[5] Sugiono, Metode penelitian pendidikan, Bandung: Alfabeta, (2013)

[6] Y. Surya, Modul Pelatihan Matematika GASING SD, PT KANDEL, (2013)

[7] Y. Surya and M. Moss, Mathematics Education in Rural Indonesia, Proc. 12th

International Congress on Mathematics Education: Topic Study Group 30,

pp.6223-6229. Seoul: Korea National University of Education, (2012)

[8] W. Wiyanti and N.S. Wakhyuningsih, Penerapan Matematika GASING

(Gampang, ASyIk,menyenaNGkan) pada Materi Penjumlahan Dua Digit

dengan Dua Digit untuk Siswa Kelas 1 Sekolah Dasar Negeri Cihuni II Kelapa

Dua Tangerang, Proc. National Congress on Mathematics and Mathematics

Education: Topic Study Group C, pp. C11-C18, Malang, (2013)

233

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Mathematics Education

Multiplication Concept Toward Interest, Study

Motivation, and Student Learning Outcome

Asri Gita1,a), Nia Yuniarti2,b), Nerru Pranuta M3,c)

1,2,3

STKIP Surya

a)

asri.gita@students.stkipsurya.ac.id

b)

nia.yuniarti@students.stkipsurya.ac.id

c)

nerru.pranuta@stkipsurya.ac.id

Abstract. This research was conducted based on the findings that students have difficulties

in learning multiplication of two numbers, especially multiplication of two digits with two

digits and multiplication of two digits with three digits. This research is a pre-experimental

design. The design that is used in this study is The One Shot Case Study. The purpose of this

study is to find out: (1) to implement of Matematika GASING into the concept of

multiplication (2) to know the influence of Matematika GASING toward students learning

outcome (3) to know the positive influence of students interest and motivation simultaneously

to mathematics learning outcome in Matematika GASING. The population in this study is 5th

grade students in Cihuni I elementary school in Kelapa Dua Tangerang districts. The

sampling technique used purposive sampling and data collected by test and questionaire. The

data findings analyzed by using anova with significance with level 5%. The expected results

this research are: (1) Matematika GASING can be implement into the concept of

multiplication (2) there is positive influence of Matematika GASING toward students

learning outcome, (3) there is positive influence of students interest and motivation

simultaneously to mathematics learning outcome in Matematika GASING.

Keywords and Phrases: study interest, study motivation, learning outcome, and

Matematika GASING.

1. Introduction

Mathematics is a subject that is always present in every level of education,

from elementary school until college. Basic math skills became a very important

part for the education of children in elementary school and became one of the skills

necessary for success in the 21st century [1]. According to the National Association

for the Education of Young Children (NAEYC), the students learn math skills at a

young age is a great base to build future learning efforts and can be a good

indicator or whether someone can be able to meet and resolve the challenges that

will be faced in the future [2].

Mathematics content given to elementary school students essentially

elementary and contains the basic concepts to understand higher concepts [3]. One

of the basic content of mathematics that should be mastered by children is

operation of counting numbers that include addition, subtraction, multiplication,

234

and division. These operations are related to very closely to understanding of the

concepts and skills perform operations that one would affect the understanding of

the concepts and skills of the other operations [4]. The operation numbers in

elementary school is very important to be able to learn other subjects [5].

Based on the theories of Piaget [6], the progression of knowledge a person

closely related to the development of biological and its interaction with the

environment. The level of sensorimotorik to formal or abstract thinking with the

classification of age as follows: 1) sensorimotorik (0 – 2 years), 2) pre operational

(2-7 years), 3) think concrete (7 – 11 years), and 4) abstract thinking or formal (12

– 16 years) [6]. Children in the elementary school level is still in the stage of

concrete thinking. Therefore when they learn an abstract concept, they will have

diffculties. As a result, many students consider mathematics as a tough lesson [7, 8,

9]. Based on the results of the exam 4th grade students in elementary school number

2 Muara Panas school year 2014-2015 on 1st semester on multiplication of the

composition shows that 20% of students to master completely, 35% of students not

mastering, and 45% less mastered [10].

The low value of the students in the multiplication content because there are

still teachers who use the method of memorizing the multiplication operation in

teaching [11]. As a result students quickly forget and do not understand the concept

well. Even for the multiplication of natural numbers the tens and hundreds of

teachers are only applying the method of multiplication of the composition so that

students feel bored because there is no variation with other methods [11]. The

appeal of a subject is determined by two things, first by subjects or learning itself

and secondly by way of teaching teachers [12]. Therefore, a teacher must prepare

their own special methods to make the subject more interesting than before and to

make it easier to learn. There are several methods and learning media to do. One of

them is by using Matematika GASING (Gampang, AsyIk, and menyenaNGkan).

Matematika GASING is a way of learning mathematics in an easy, fun, and

enjoyable. With a pleasant learning atmosphere will definitely encourage students

motivation and interest in learning. Motivation is an important aspect in the activity

of teaching and learning [13, 14]. If a student had the motivation of learning

mathematics and he will learn it in earnest and can easily achieve the learning

objectives. Students can understand the mathematics content studied, then it will

grow a positive attitude towards mathematics learners so that the interest will grow

[15]. Thus, when the understanding of content can be achieved then this will have

an effect on student learning outcomes.

This research examines some of the problems as follows: 1) How to

implement of Matematika GASING into the concept of multiplication ?, 2) is

there the influence of Matematika GASING toward students learning

outcome?, 3) is there the positive influence of students interest and

motivation simultaneously to mathematics learning outcome in Matematika

GASING?

The purpose of this research is to implement of Matematika GASING into

the concept of multiplication, to know the influence of Matematika GASING

toward students learning outcome, and to know the positive influence of

students interest and motivation simultaneously to mathematics learning

outcome in Matematika GASING.

235

This research is expected to be beneficial for teachers subjects in order to use

other means in teaching a two-digit integer multiplication content to students. Then

the benefits of this research for researchers is to develop knowledge, so it is

beneficial to the development of research learning mathematics further.

2. Main Results

Matematika GASING

Matematika GASING is way of mathematics learning to achieve learning

outcome was originally developed by Prof. Yohanes Surya. GASING stands for

Gampang, ASyIk, dan menyenaNGkan which is translated as easy, fun, and

enjoyable. The content of Matematika GASING is different with sequence of

teaching mathematics as usual schools because Matematika GASING start from

adding, multiplication, substraction, and division. Matematika GASING will be

teach use unique way which starts from concrete forms to understanding the

concept then continous to abstract forms. Matematika GASING shows how to

change a concrete sample into an abstract symbol so the students will be able to

read a mathematics patern thus gain the conclusion by themselves [16]. The

introduction of concrete forms can encourages students with exploration activities

using props. Matematika GASING has a critical point in any content. GASING

critical point is a top level that must be passed by students to be undestand next

contents [17].

In multiplication content, GASING critical point is 1) students must

understand the concepts of multiplication, 2) students know how to count multiples

of 1, 10, 9, 2, and 5 fastly, 3) followed by the multiplication of two numbers the

same multiplication, 4) 3 and 4 multiplication, and 5) multiplication 8, 7 and 6.

Critical

Point

5 GASING

4

3

2

1

In order to understand the multiplication concept, the learning is started by

using concrete means (concrete stage in GASING). An illustration of learning 2 ×

5 is given in picture 2.2.

Taking one box that consist five pineapples. Therefore taking once again.

There is two boxes that consist five pineapples read “two boxes consisted five”

shows 2 × 5. The result is 5 + 5 = 10.

236

When the fifth step already controlled properly, it can be said that students

have entered the GASING critical point. It means that students can continuous to

other way multiplication including the multiplication of two-digit numbers.

The following is an example of how to calculate the multiplication of two-digit

numbers:

Tens times tens is hundreds, so put 3 places (ones, tens, hundreds).

Multiply the number from front. 12

1 tens × 4 tens = 4 hundreds write on front. 46x

1 tens × 6 ones = 6 tens, continuous adding with 12

4 tens × 2 ones = 8 tens. 4 _ _4 6 x

Hundreds to be 4 + 1 = 5

The retrieved results is 14 tens or 1 hundreds and 4 tens. 41 4 _

5 4_

Next is 2 ones × 6 ones = 12 ones or 1 tens dan 2 ones. 12

The total of tens is 4 + 1 = 5 tens. 46x

Hundreds is 2.

So the finally result from 12 × 46 is 552. 41 41 2

5 5 2

Motivation is one of the factors which determine the success of the children

in the study because the motivation plays very effective in helping students learn

[18], this makes motivation become one of the prerequisite which is quite

important in learning [19]. Student motivation plays an important role in the

process of conceptual change [20], critical thinking, learning strategies [21, 22] and

the achievement of the learning outcomes [23]. According to Winkel [24] the

motivation of learning is the driving force of psychic power overall in student

learning activities that give rise, ensuring continuity of learning activities and

provide direction on learning activities that for the sake of achieving a goal.

Motivation can arise due to factors from inside and outside that affect the interest

of students towards a subjects [15].

How to motivate students during the learning process is to connect the

learning experience of students with interest. Interest is a characteristic staple that

States the relationship between a person and an object or specific activity [25]

when one is not currently being in the pressure from outside himself [26]. Study

interest is encouragement from inside of someone who's done consciously,

pleasure, voluntarily, even wanted to try repeatedly to understand a content.

Interest is often associated with someone's behaviour to achieve specific goals in

order to get an impression of a condition and interaction in the environment [15,

18]. Interest to have a strong influence on the cognitive domain (knowledge) and

effective (attitude) domain of the individual [27, 28, 29]. This influence is not only

bulit the cognitive domain and effective domain, but also blend in both of it [30].

Research Design

The design that used in this study is quantitative research method with

One Shot Case Study. On the research of One Shot Case Study were given

237

treatment and subsequently observed the result [12]. The sampling technique had

been used is purposive sampling and data collected by test and questionaire.

This forms of design research according to Sugiyono [12] is as follows:

X O

Note:

X : learning multiplication of two-digit numbers with a Matematika GASING

O : post-test value

The expected results this research are: 1) identify problems and goals, 2)

determine appropriate research design issues and research purposes, 3) arrange the

instruments test, 4) give learning a two-digit integer multiplication, 5) give post-

test for two-digit multiplication content with two-digit and two-digit multiplication

and a three-digit, 6) give the questionaires to know interests and motivation

learning of students, 7) make an analysis of the test results, 8) make the conclusion

of the results of the study, and 9) make research reports.

Research Instrument

The collection of data in this study is to provide a written test and

questionaires. The written test given at the end and this questions made from

revision bloom taksonomi. The level are C1 (remember), C2 (understand), C3

(aplication), dan C4 (analize) [31]. The next post-test question given after learning

will be answered by Matematika GASING students use. Written tests given to two-

digit multiplication this number as many as 30 questions that consists of 25

questions with brief descriptions and 5 reserved form of the story. Problems given

to get the average value of the results of the learning of students with two-digit

numbers multiplication content. Besides giving post-test, students were also given

two questionaires to find out the interest and motivation of students in learning

math after learning about the Matematika GASING.

Result

Based on the results of pre-test and post-test from 5th grade in elementary

school Cihuni I in Kelapa Dua Tangerang districts, obtained the data that the

ability to multiply a two-digit numbers by a two-digits and three-digits by a two-

digits is influenced by the interest and students motivation. The average value of

the post-test students who answered a mathematics way of using Matematika

GASING is 82.47. After the success of the test used on average of students learning

outcomes variables using one of the test. Whose hypothesis are as follows:

Ho : μ ≤ 70

H1 : μ > 70

Note:

μ = Average of students learning outcomes.

238

Ho = Average of students learning outcomes less than equal to 70.

H1 = Average of students learning outcomes more than 70.

x – μ0

Statistics test using: t =

s

n

Note:

t : Statistics value of calculation result .

s : Deviation standard of students learning outcomes.

n : The number of students.

x - μ0

t=

s

n

82, 47 70

thitung 3, 510

15,885

20

Therefore the result compared with t table value with dk = (n-1) and

significance level 5%. For testing criteria if t count > t(1 - α) therefore H0 ignored was

consequences H1 accepted, it means the average value more than 70. The result of

calculation obtained tcount value = 3,510, whereas t table = 1,729. Obviously t count >

t(1 - α) it means H0 ignored. Then the average of students learning outcomes more

than 70 or passed through comparison of students indicator value.

Student Interest in Matematika GASING

Student Interest 1

2

3

4

5

239

Based on the questionnaires which had previously been distributed to

students, the obtained results are shown in the diagram above. In the diagram

above shows that student interest towards Matematika GASING belongs to high.

Student Motivation 1

2

3

4

5

6

students, the obtained results are shown in the diagram above. In the diagram

above shows that student motivation towards Matematika GASING belongs to

high.

Findings

Many factor happened during researched. Those factors are:

1. The time taken in this study is too short that is only 3-4 times for 3 weeks.

2. Students are still not accustomed to learning Matematika GASING.

3. Post-test was carried out after the sports lessons so that the child is still in a

condition of fatigue.

3. Concluding Remarks

Based on the research that has been done and results researchers have

presented above can be drawn some conclusions with regard to the interest,

motivation, and student learning outcomes. The summary is as follows:

1. Matematika GASING can be implement into the concept of multiplication.

2. There is positive influence of Matematika GASING toward students

learning outcome.

3. There is positive influence of students interest and motivation

simultaneously to mathematics learning outcome in Matematika GASING.

240

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242

Proceedings of IICMA 2015

Mathematics Education

Learning Model (Modified Cooperative

Learning Techniques; Think Pair Share and

Problem-Based Learning Techniques)

Patmaniar1,a), and Darma Ekawati2,b)

1

Cokroaminoto Palopo University

a)

niar.niezt@yahoo.com

b)

darma.ekaa@gmail.com

Abstract. Teaching and learning activities in Palopo was still teacher-centered. In addition,

local contexts, local wisdom, and local problems were less used as a source of learning

materials. These problems then became the basis of this research to develop local context

learning media for Math instruction in Palopo by modifying some Cooperative Learning

techniques; Think Pair Share and Problem-Based Learning techniques, to be techniques

which were of good qualities (valid, practical, and reliable). Considering the limitation of

time that the researcher had, the development of those three qualities (valid, practical, and

reliable) were finally done simultaneously. When developing the techniques, the researcher

also developed learning media and learning instruments that suited the developed mdel. In

longer time, this development was intended to (1) develop Palopo local context learning

model that could be utilized as a reference by university lecturers in Palopo city; (2)

developing a course book for university students which was of Palopo Local Context

characteristics that could be used by university students in Palopo city; (3) suggest the Local

Education Authority that the modified learning model be techniques that can be used by

teachers and lecturers in Palopo city and its surrounding areas. In other words, this research

gave some theoretical and practical contributions especially in the field of education in the

form of a new learning model that was the modified Think Pair Share and Problem-Based

Learning techniques. This study employed 4 critical phases; they were (1) initial

investigation, (2) planning, (3) realization, and (4) evaluation and revision on Data Analysis

course.The results of this study showed that the developed media that related local contexts

and problems in Palopo city could stimulate and develop students’ skill to solve mathematical

problems happening in Palopo city. The results of this study also gave contributions to the

learning development especially for teachers’ and lecturers’ development in Palopo city.

Keywords and Phrases: Media Development, Local Context, Cooperative Learning

technique, Think Pair Share, Problem-Based Learning

243

1. Introduction

Indonesia is now facing two major challenges, they are decentralization or

regional autonomy which has been starting and the globalization era that is going

to happen in 2020. Both are major challenges that have to be prepared and faced by

all Indonesian people. The success key of facing those challenges lies on the

powerful Human Source that understands their culture or local context.

Local wisdom can be understood as ideas, values, and beliefs of certain

places that are wise and good, and are followed by the society. The elements of a

local culture are local wisdom that is proven to be good and to survive until now. It

is of some characteristics; (1) it can survive from the attack of other or foreign

cultures; (2) it is able to accommodate the elements of other or foreign cultures, (3)

it is able to integrate the elements of other or foreign cultures into the local culture;

(4) it is able to give directions to culture developments.

Based on the results of the observation and interview with university

students, it could be concluded that university students were always thinking that

math was a difficult lesson; they tended to be ignorant in the lesson, did the task

not seriously or even cheated from their friends without trying to understand the

problem first. This thing is actually far from what the local wisdom teaches us.

Based on the interview on “pendidikan karakter”. Character Education that was

integrated into local context, the teachers should develop a local context learning

model, which was rarely found, to achieve the purpose. Another finding was found

from interviews with a teacher in a school and with a lecturer in a private

university in Palopo city, it was found that developing local context learning media

integrated with mathematic teaching materials needed to be realized in a learning

model. It was however admitted that the learning model was still limited to the

development of lesson plans, course books, and media used in teaching and

learning process. The local context of Palopo now started to be forgotten by the

students. Developing this kind of learning media was considered a better solution

since it would involve the problems happening in Palopo city.

Furthermore, based on the interview results with some students of

Cokroaminoto University, Palopo, it was found that university students were not

passionate about learning their college courses especially the math course. It was

because the lesson is so hard that they got difficulties in understanding it and the

learning style was always “text book oriented.” They were also reluctant to ask

things they did not understand. Looking at that condition, it can be inferred that a

teacher needs to use innovative learning activities that are adapted to the problems

that happen surrounding them. By doing that the students are expected to be easier

to understand the lesson so as they can be smart, creative, innovative, and helpful

for the future students and it helps teachers teach about students’ characters that are

suitable with local context in Palopo city. One of solutions to reduce the students’

problems was modifying the cooperative learning techniques; Think Pair Share and

Problem-Based Learning as well as developing the learning media and problems

triggering the students to develop their skills. That thing can be implemented in

Data Analysis course. Besides developing students’ analyzing skill through

softwares, they can also think about suitable problems that are given to them.

According to the authentic problems presented above, the researcher decided to

develop Palopo local context learning media by modifying Cooperative Learning

Techniques; Think Pair Share and Problem-Based Learning techniques.

244

2. Main Results

In this section, the researcher will discuss the development process of local

context learning media referring to Plomp’s developing procedures (1997).

Plomp’s developing procedures consist of some development steps; initial

investigation, planning, realization of the media.

The initial investigation phase was about investigating the learning models

and media that were used by teachers and lecturers while the initial planning phase

was about planning to modify the learning and planning the learning media. Things

that had been modified can be seen at Table 1.

Phase Indicator Teacher’s Activity

Students’ The teacher gives illustrations about the real

1 orientation to the conditions related to the material that is going to

problems be discussed

Telling the The teacher tells the objectives of the lesson that

2 objectives and are going to be achieved and motivates the

motivating students students

Introducing the The teacher introduces the main topic of the

3 main topic of materials to the students by using scaffolding

materials technique

The teacher presents an authentic problem and

Assisting students asks the students to think individually and

4

to Think-Pair phase afterwards the students discuss the problem in

pair

The teacher asks the pairs to share their thoughts

5 Assisting students and cooperate with the whole class by saying

to Share phase opinions and responding them

The teacher evaluates the learning outcomes

6 Initial evaluation about the materials by giving another problem

The teacher gives rewards to the results of group

7 Giving rewards or individual works

Evaluating the The teacher gives feedback about the lesson

8 students’ learned

understanding

In planning phase, the prototype of learning media which were still limited

to Data Analysis course were designed. The course unit that was successfully

designed was based on the syntax of the modified learning model, it also

considered the relationship between other components, such as; reaction principles,

social systems, instructional effect and nurturant effect, and modified learning

media. The presentation of materials in student’s course book was designed by

combining the direct presentation and the process of constructing knowledge by the

students that was suitable with Palopo local context. The characteristics of the book

245

were that it was of the local context of Palopo and of the problems happening at

Palopo city and of the way(s) to analyze them. Worksheets were designed in the

form of individual tasks followed by some projects and they were to be given in

each meeting. Those activities were expected to train the students to get used to

analyzing the educational problems in Palopo city. The worksheets were integrated

with the developed media. To gain data about the process and the results of the

media development, the instruments of validity, practicality, and reliability needed

to be prepared. The validating instruments in this planning, which functioned to

standardized the assessment aspects and indicators, were (1) the assessment sheet

of the modified learning model, (2) the observation form for the modified learning

model implementation, (3) the student observation form, (4) the observation form

of leaning management, (5) the student response sheet, and (6) the evaluation sheet

for students. All designs of the above instruments consisted of instructions and

contents. The contents were based on theories that supported the objects attached in

the instruments.

Realization phase was about realizing the modified learning model, the

suitable learning media as well as the needed learning instruments. The products of

this process were (1) the Palopo local context learning media that suited the results

of modified learning model, and (2) the instruments of validity, practicality, and

reliability. The name of the product was Prototype-1 (the modified learning model,

media, and instruments). The description of Prototype-1 as the results of the

development in realization phase is shown at Table 2.

TABLE 2. The Modification Illustrations in Learning Model

INFORMA

NO TEACHER’S ACTIVITY STUDENT’S ACTIVITY TIME TION

Initial Activity

Phase 1 : Student orientation to the problem

1 Presenting pictures about Giving answers based on Asking and

materials that are going to be their understandings 5 Answering,

discussed Minutes discussion

Asking and

related to the materials presented about the related 5 Answering,

issues in Data Analysis Minutes

Discussion

course

Phase 2 : Presenting the objectives and motivating the students

1 Presenting the learning Heeding the learning Lecturing

objectives, motivating objectives especially the

students, and managing the application in each Data 5

class to be a real-life-like Analysis material Minutes

class

Phase 3 : Presenting the main topic of the materials

1 Providing scaffolds about Giving answers related to Asking and

the concepts that are going the materials 10 Answering,

to be discussed Minutes Discussion

246

discussion on the terms from about the terms of demand Minutes Answering,

the materials given function, supply function, Discussion

and equilibrium price

Phase 4 : Assisting students to Think-Pair phase

1 Providing the problems to be Discussing the problems

discussed; authentic given in pairs

questions related to per unit 10 Think, Pair

taxes Minutes

1 Giving directions to students Sharing the results of pair

to share the results of pair discussion 2 Share

discussion Minutes

1 Giving directions to the Presenting the results of Asking and

students to present the the discussion 10 Answering,

results of pair discussion Minutes Discussion

of the discussion results other students 2 Answering,

Minutes Discussion

1 Giving rewards to the Listening 2

student’s learning outcomes Minutes

Phase 8 : Evaluating student’s understanding

1 Distributing worksheets Students finish the

containing questions related worksheets 10

to the materials minutes

students so that they can information

implement the problem in

real situation

5

3 Reminding the students to Listening to the minutes

study the materials that are information about the next

going to be discussed in the meeting

next meeting

The results of realization phase were followed by doing validity test to the

developed learning media and to some related instruments.

Discussion of Results

In this part, the researcher will discuss the achieved objectives and

particular findings.

a. The Achieved Objectives

1) Validity

Related to the quality of the developed learning media, the researcher

found the average validity of the media that met a validity indicator that had been

247

set before. The developed media were based on the Palopo local context.

Regarding the result of validity test, it could be concluded that Prototype-1

(modified model, media, and instruments) had met all criteria of validity. In the

initial testing process (test of validity) the modified model was defined to be valid

seen from the whole aspects of the model, the supporting theories were however

still considered to be insufficient to support the modified model. Some validators

suggested that the modified model use constructivism theories as theoretical basis

of this study so that this model did not seem to focus on lecturers’ thoughts only.

The addition of constructivism theories as theoretical basis would bring massive

impacts on the modified model, supporting media, and research instruments. After

going with some revisions, the modified model was finally applicable to math

teaching and learning activities that focused on the lecturer and the students. The

learning media that were previously dominated by direct presentation were revised

to be presented with balance combination between direct presentation and student

constructing process.

2) Practicality

Theoretically, this modified model was verified by the experts and was said

to be deserved to be applied. Empirically, based on the observation on the

implementation of the model on the first trial, the model had met the criteria of

practicality and its practicalities increased in the second and third trials. However,

when it was further observed, there were some aspects of each component that

needed to be increased in the second trial, they were:

1) For syntax component, the learning phase that still needed more lecturer’s

attention was Phase-1: Orientation to the problems;

2) For social system components, the aspects that had not yet implemented well

were (1) the students’ autonomy for learning, especially when the students

constructed their knowledge and did the worksheet and (2) the chances given

to the students to be actively involved in teaching and learning activities and

the rewards given.

3) For reaction principle aspect, the not-yet-well-implemented aspect then was

more emphasized in the second trial and it gave a positive reinforcement.

A factors that was assumed as the cause of the not-implemented aspects of

modified learning model on the first trial was that the lecturers got difficulties in

managing the class since students needed more time to follow the syntax of the

modified model.

3) Reliability

The reliability of the modified learning model was defined by 4

components; the achieved learning outcomes, students’ activities, the lecturer’s

ability to manage the lesson, and students’ response to the modified learning model

and the local context learning media. From those components, there were three

components that had been fulfilled; they were the lecturer’s ability to manage the

class using the modified model, the achieved learning outcomes, and students’

response to the modified model and learning media. The characteristics of the

modified model were that there were students’ activities in thinking the orientation

to problems, evaluation of students’ understandings, and other solving problem

activities beside the constructing knowledge activity. If a student was less active in

the teaching and learning activities, the student’s mastery of the materials would

not be optimum.

248

To improve the results of the second trial, the lecturer was suggested that

(1) the lecturer frequently give supports to students so that the students would be

active in thinking, sharing with friends, completing course book and finish the

worksheet, (2) the learning emphasis be on the achieved learning outcomes in the

form of the mastery of math teaching materials.

b. Specific Findings

There were some specific findings that were considered important in this

research. In trials, the majority of the students had successfully found the

educational problems that happened in Palopo city, they were able to present the

results of their researches, they were able to analyze independently and they were

able to share with other groups. Those findings illustrated how a learning process

in class could change the students’ teaching and learning paradigm; in the

beginning the students only got information, but in this modified model, the

students’ characters were formed and their ways of thinking when solving

problems were also developed. Thus, in the modified learning model the students

took a part in collecting the data, interpreting the results of the researches, and

presenting the results of their researches.

The previously mentioned facts showed the importance of integrating the

local context education that could shape the students’ characters and impact

positively on the students’ ability development. Even though Data Analysis course

is an exact course, it was not impossible to integrate Palopo local context into the

learning process. The integrated local context with a learning model whose

learning syntax had been modified was expected to develop the high achiever’s

cognitive and affective domains.

The learning process presented local problems, the students then looked for

solutions to the problems by doing investigation, collecting information, and

rechecking the solutions through analysis. By using these activities, the students

could understand the concept, implement it in their daily lives, and improve their

abilities. The results of this study showed that teaching with modified learning

model that was integrated with local context significantly affected the learning

outcomes. The learning process emphasized on the students’ ability in constructing

their own ideas when solving problems. From that solving problem process, the

students could develop their quality characters, such as critical, careful,

responsible, logical, not easily giving up, respecting, honest, and cooperative.

Other than that, this learning model supported the implementation of the integrated

local values in some courses in math education department. According to the

researcher, this part of the study is specific findings since this aspect differentiates

the local context learning media from the previously existing learning model.

3. Concluding Remarks

Based on the discussion of trials on students done in Data Analysis course

by developing Palopo local context learning media through valid, practical, and

reliable development processes, it can be concluded that:

1. Based on the results of validity test and trials, it was found that Palopo local

context learning media through modifying cooperative learning techniques;

Think-Pair Share and Problem-based learning (course unit, course book,

249

students’ worksheet and learning outcomes or evaluation) had met the criteria of

validity so that it could be implemented by math lecturers in Palopo city.

2. The developed media met the criteria of practicality; the aspects of learning

management activities had been fulfilled and were classified as‘good category.’

3. The product (learning media) had met the reliability criteria; the learning

outcomes, students’ activities, and students’ response to teaching and learning

activities.

References

[1] R. I. Arends, Learning to Teach 9th Ed (Mc.Graw Hill Companies, Inc., 2008)

[2] E. E. Holmes, New Direction in Elementary School Mathematics, Interactive

teaching and Learning (New Jersey, Prentice Hall.Inc, 1995)

[3] B. Joyce, M. Weil, and B. Showers, Models of Teaching Fourth Edition

(Boston, Allyn & Bacon, 1992)

[4] N. Nieveen, Prototyping to Reach Product Quality. In Jan Van den Akker,

R.M. Branch, K. Gustafson, N. Nieveen & Tj. Plomp (Eds), Design

Approaches and Tools in Education and Training (pp 125 – 135) Kluwer

Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, the Nederlands, (1999)

[5] Nurdin, “Model Pembelajaran Matematika Untuk Menumbuhkan Kemampuan

Metakognitif”, Disertasi, Universitas Negeri Surabaya. (unpublished, 2007)

[6] N. Syahrul, “Peranan Pendidikan Budaya Karakter Bangsa Sebagai Upaya

Pembentukan Watak Kepribadian Peserta Didik”, (presented at Seminar

Pendidikan Internasional., 2011)

[7] Trianto, Model-Model Pembelajaran Inovatif Berorientasi Konstruktivistik

(Jakarta, Prestasi Pustaka, 2007)

250

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