Dry gas H2S Sulfur petrochemicals. These schemes also include consideration
SRU
GFU LPG (sale) to handle heavy-oil residue. A sensitivity analysis of ROI ad-
Natural gas H2 dresses variable oil prices.
IBP-62 (sale) HPU
ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
62-140 Reformate (sale)
Naphtha HT Reforming Three key oil refining models are used in the analysis:1
140-240 Kerosine (sale) 1. Gasoline based on catalytic cracking
Atmospheric and vacuum distillation
Kerosine HT
H2
culated on the basis of available data for similar plants, as well
Natural gas
Gasoline stripping HPU as data received from КВС and CLG companies.7 Investments
are recalculated for different plant capacities:8
Crude oil 240-350 SDF (sale)
DF HT
I = Iа × (C / Cа )0.6
Gasoline, DF
LCGO
which minimizes the timeframe. The main assessment crite- 5. Minimal refinery capacity in which the ROI for the
ria include: modifications has a payback of less than 15 years.
1. Crude conversion ratio All process models are made and optimized in MS Excel
2. Yield of light petroleum products spreadsheets and validated.a
3. Breakeven point. Note: If the capital investment for
the modifications is high, then depreciation will also HEAVY-OIL RESIDUE PROCESSING OPTIONS
account for a large share of fixed costs. Production of bitumen is the least capital-intensive meth-
4. Net present value (NPV) od for tar processing. A significant drawback of this scheme is
the dependence on seasonal fluctuations
6 of the bitumen market in Russia. Dur-
5
Gasoline
95.8%
Gasoline ing the winter, bitumen consumption
Diesel 93.2% Diesel
Petrochemical 91.2% Petrochemical decreases considerably. FIG. 4 illustrates
4 the efficiency by the selected refinery
CAPEX, $ billion
Diesel Diesel
Petrochemical Petrochemical oil products, only oil refineries with
1
capacities of more than 9 MMtpy–10
0 MMtpy will be profitable under the new
0 2015 export duties. However, at present
export duties, smaller-capacity refiner-
ies (4 MMtpy–5 MMtpy) can provide
-1 -1 ROI. The breakeven point is 0.6 MMtpy
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 at the 2012 duties, and it increases up to
Refinery capacity, MMtpy Refinery capacity, MMtpy
1 MMtpy at the 2015 export duties.
FIG. 4. Efficiency of oil refining schemes with production of bitumen.
Residue hydrocracking. Hydrocrack-
7 ing of vacuum residue (VR) is not a wide-
Gasoline Gasoline spread method for processing heavy-oil
6 Diesel residues, although interest in this process
Diesel 85.1% 86.6% Petrochemical
Petrochemical 81.9% has increased. For example, JSC Luk-
5 79.7%
oil made a decision to construct residue
CAPEX, $ billion
76.6%
4
hydrocrackers at the Bourgas (Bulgaria)
3 67.5% and Nizhny Novgorod refineries. More
2 importantly, new residue hydrocracking
processes are under development, along
1
with modifications to established pro-
0 cesses. In 2012, the installation of a new
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Crude conversion, % Yield of light petroleum
Refinery capacity, MMtpy products, % hydrocracking technology at an Italian
1 1 refinery was announced.
Gasoline Gasoline Considering the relevance of heavy-
NPV export duties 2012, $ billion
schemes allow attaining processing efficiency at 82%–87% with capacities of 6 MMtpy–7 MMtpy can provide an ROI.
levels and yield of light-oil products at 68%–80%. Needed The breakeven point is 0.7 MMtpy at the 2012 duties, and it
CAPEX ranges from $5.2 B to $6.2 B, depending on the fi- increases up to 0.8 MMtpy at the 2015 duties level.
nal product slate (gasoline, diesel or petrochemicals) for a
10-MMtpy refinery. Due to incomplete residue conversion Deasphalting. Deasphalting is one of the most widespread
and high investment costs under the 2015 export duties, only processes of VR processing. Selection of asphalt-free oil de-
refineries with capacities of 8 MMtpy–9 MMtpy are profit- pends on the distribution of metals in the initial VR and its
able. However, under present export duty options, refineries CCR. For the VR produced from Urals oil, 55%–60% yield is
realistic.8 Processing schemes with deas-
6 phalting of the VR allow reaching a pro-
Gasoline Gasoline cess efficiency of 77%–84% with yield of
5 Diesel Diesel
Petrochemical 84.3% Petrochemical
light products at 63%–78%. The invest-
4 79.5% 78.4% ment is $4.8 B to $5.5 B for a 10-MMtpy
CAPEX, $ billion
Diesel Diesel
Petrochemical Petrochemical
Coking. Coking installations use vary-
0 0 ing methods. Delayed coking, fluidized-
bed coking and flexicoking are the most
common installations to handle heavy-
oil residues. The coking process was
-1 -1 widely applied in the countries of the
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 former USSR to produce coke for the
Refinery capacity, MMtpy Refinery capacity, MMtpy aluminum industry and ferrous metal-
FIG. 6. Performance of oil refining schemes with process of deasphalting. lurgy. Oil processing in Russia has a
rich experience for the metals industry,
7
which is very important in the final deci-
Gasoline sion making.
6 Gasoline
Diesel Diesel FIG. 7 shows the performance of re-
Petrochemical 89.1% Petrochemical
5 86.1% fineries with coking capabilities. Such
83.6% 82.4% configurations allow attaining refin-
CAPEX, $ billion
4 78.2%
ing efficiency levels of 84%–89% with
3 69.9% light product yields of 70%–82%. In-
2
vestments of $5.2 B–$6.2 B are needed
for a 10-MMtpy refinery. Calculations
1 show that, due to the low coke yield
0 and “dark” oil products (6% for oil), the
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Crude conversion, % Yield of light petroleum 2015 export duties have no impact on
Refinery capacity, MMtpy products, %
2 2 the performance of these schemes. Oil
refineries with capacity over 6 MMtpy
NPV export duties 2012, $ billion
Gasoline Gasoline
Diesel Diesel can provide ROI. The breakdown point
1 Petrochemical 1 Petrochemical is 0.65 MMtpy at 2012 duties, and it in-
creases 0.7 MMtpy at the 2015 duties.