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Tariq Mahmood Hashmi

30, November 2016

The Potential Effects of Global Warming

Scientific research has revealed that the atmosphere on the earth has been increasingly

growing hotter and hotter over the course of time. Though this increase in the average

temperature on the earth atmosphere has been due to some natural factors yet the rate of rise has

been escalated in the previous few centuries. With the dawn of industrialization, human activity

on the earth has escalated the rate at which the earth is growing warmer. The term global

warming is used for “a gradual increase in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and

its oceans, a change that is believed to be permanently changing the Earth's climate ("Global

Warming: 2016 Articles, Facts, Causes & Effects").”

The heat that reaches the earth from the sun is partly retained due to the greenhouses

gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane. The balance in the earth temperature is the

blessing due to which life is possible here. The sun energy is retained due to the above

mentioned and other gases which together are called greenhouse gases. Scientists have come to

believe that about one third of the solar radiation is reflected back into space, and some of it is

absorbed by the atmosphere and some by the land and oceans. The greenhouse gases including

carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide and water vapour create the blanket created that

keeps the earth warm at 35 degree Celsius. During the pre-industrialization times, the earth

atmosphere did not suffer from rapid change in its average temperature. However, during the last

few centuries, specifically during the last hundred year, this trapping of the heat has been at a

greater scale mainly because of fossil fuel burning and deforestation. This results in uneven
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climatic changes including even unexpected cooling of parts of the earth. The Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change has recently presented a long report analysing the research done so far

on the topic. It finds that through previously there were questions and doubts about the global

warming threat but the research has resolved them and the scientists are certain about the reality

of the phenomenon (Pachauri et al.).

The scientists have concluded that the global temperature has risen by 0.6 degree Celsius

and the sea level has risen 20 cm during the last century. The IPCC report also points to a

reasonable prediction of further worsening of the problem. They believe that towards the end of

the current century the earth might be at least 1.4 degree Celsius warmer and the sea level can

rise more than 20 centimetres. Moreover, the weather will be more unpredictable, and extreme

weather conditions would be the norm including for example floods, droughts and storms.

It is mainly the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that has been the cause of this

increase in the world temperature. This problem was triggered by the industrial revolution. A

very major contribution to the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is due to the emissions

resulting from, industrial processes, energy production and transport. The countries with

advanced industrial production are the major contributors and together they emit 22 billion

tonnes of carbon per year. US has the biggest share in the emission of carbon dioxide. Other

countries like the ones in Europe and China also contribute substantial emission of the gas. The

positive news is that the world has become alive to this fact and the most countries appreciate the

problem and there is a general consensus on that the world has to take positive steps to reduce

the threat. It is also known that the world cannot stop using fuels and producing energy, what

they have to do is to opt for the most energy efficient means and do their best to slow down the

pace of the danger.

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The United Nations Environmental Panel and World Meteorological Organization

established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The main objective

of this organization is to address the problem of global warming and make the world remain

aware of our knowledge on the changes in climate, analyse the scientific data, and study

environmental, social and economic impacts of the global warming. The IPCC has proven to be

the best authority employing scientific aspect as well as human side of the problem. It has

involved the major actors on the globe, organized many summits, conferences and stress the need

to address the problem (Pachauri et al.). Due to the gravity of the nature of the threat, its effects

on human health, social life, economy and even existence of the humans on the face of the earth,

not only the states, the governments, the international forums, national organizations and

institutions of the countries but also the individuals themselves need to be exposed to the scale of

the potential danger. Every human being is responsible and can contribute to this awareness and

take steps to do what is in his personal capacity and at least avoid adding to the acuteness of the

malaise. In what follows is a summary of the effects the global warming has over the human

activity and the environment including human health, economy, social life and means of

sustenance like for example forests and agriculture.

Species and Ecosystem Impacts

In an ever-encompassing era of advancement the human race has been shrouded by many

problems that endanger the environment and the populace inhabiting earth. Therefore, it is the

need of the hour that everyone of us is fully aware of the threat and appreciate how these

problems continue to have a lasting impact of our lives. As in the case of global warming many

people are still ignorant to the massive impact it seems to having in a large series of

unpredictable but harmful effects in our daily lives. In respect to the variety of species inhabiting
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this planet, the different phyla in our kingdom are all adversely affected on account of global

warming.

Climatic change, with rising temperatures and sea levels, would lead us to losing many of

the species that dwell in our planet. As earth continues to warm faster than it ever has over the

years animals are required to adapt to the unpredictable pattern governing our environment at

large - the continuous variation in rainfall, the increasing length of summer, etc. - which would

consequently result in a loss of habitat to a lot of our animal species (Bellard et al.). As aridity

increases and desertification of lands continues to occur, many places or areas housing unique

species may not be able to produce foods or temperature conditions necessary for survival. In the

case that the animals are unable to migrate or find conditions favorable for adaptation, a wide

loss of species is clearly imminent in the forthcoming years. The element of unpredictability

boosts the chance of climatic shifts manifold which point to an ever-growing probability that the

whole process may surpass migrational capabilities (Pachauri et al.). The loss of species may

consequently cause an alteration in competition amongst the animals. Thus resulting in

something that would mirror a situation quite chaotic and the danger of being thrown into such a

situation is pretty horrific. In case that the whole process is slow it may result in a series of

changes which may bring novelty to what used to be the governing factors of normal regulations.

There may be changes in range, whence, species that are able to adapt to the changing conditions

shift their ranges northward bit by bit or to an altitude higher in order to achieve an environment

that is close to their thriving conditions, however even in such a case animals that live on

snowcapped peaks or areas of the northern and southern poles would be in a compromised

position with nowhere to move thus they would be endangered all the same (Pachauri et al.).
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Furthermore, species decide when to begin doing things important to their lives -

migrating, nesting, flowering, mating etc. - when wither the levels of precipitation, temperature

or daylight begins to differ. The process of Global Warming results in a confusion amongst the

animals which is leading to an altered life cycle. For example, animals may rise earlier from

hibernation only to find that the things that they require for sustenance are not yet present in their

environment.

Drought and warming are resulting in an extremely quick loss of forested areas, or

increases vulnerability of trees to diseases that reduce their numbers, or an even quicker

phenomena for tree loss - wildfires. Additionally coral bleaching and melting of ice caps are

other things that add to the problems that are to face the species all about earth with the advent of

global warming (Bowen). The rising sea levels in some places would flow onto beaches and

marshes causing erosion and loss of habitat for birds, fish and coastal life. Whilst in other places

conditions would continue to get drier, causing us to lose wetlands. Migration might even result

in species that would escape towards better conditions to invade those areas making a harmful

impact upon the region by disturbing their natural working. There would then be a danger of

pathogens taking over different areas. Polar Bears are now in danger of starving as the ice they

depend on for hunting melts earlier and earlier. The migrating Pika is running out of places to

turn to in order to thrive. The changing behaviors of birds and ducks are having aforementioned

impacts in their respectful environments.

The research conducted so far has substantiated that with changing climate is certainly

affecting the ecosystem and create life of all kinds of species. However, there is not a very

concrete estimate of the damage expected. But this uncertainly, holds us for us a great threat than

solace as unexpectedness is itself a grave matter. This leaves us incapable of taking any step and
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making any amends. Though the climate change due to the natural phenomenon did not wipe out

many species and many survived. But the nature of current escalation indicates that in future vast

scale destruction is possible. Since species live in a kind of complete system the loss of one

specie can lead to the loss of another and this can create a chain leading to great destruction and

extinction. Researchers have observed that “many species have altered range limits and

phenotypes through 20th-century climate change, but responses are highly variable. The

proximate causes of species decline relative to resilience remain largely obscure” (Moritz and

Agudo). This is why according to IPCC report, African mountain gorilla, amphibians whose

habitat is restricted to the neotropics cloud forests, the spectacled bear originated in the Andes,

Tanzanian forest birds, Central American the Resplendent Quetzal, the tiger from Bengal and

host of other species particularly from Sundarban wetlands have been listed as endangered

specifically due to the global warming effects (Maslin 93).

Agriculture Impacts

From among the possible devastating effects resulting from the global warming upon the

humans include drastic changes agriculture. Agriculture has been an important part of the human

economy from the times immemorial. It is central to the economy of nearly all the countries of

the world. It contributes to the economy of a people more than any other sector. Agriculture is

primarily dependant on the environmental conditions of a place and region. With the rising

levels of Carbon Dioxide – which some may argue are favorable for plants – would mean

nothing provided that other factors necessary to sustain plant growth are not present. However,

with the lack of the elements needed, rising Carbon Dioxide concentrations and hence global

warming are quite threatening to farming.

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Increasing temperatures would affect different crops in various ways, depending on their

optimal temperatures for growth and reproduction. For crops the growth systems of which are

synchronized for lower temperatures, global warming could quite possibly translate to extinction

in a rapid speed. Though in some areas crops may be benefited, or there may be the opportunity

for farmers to shift crops to warmer areas when required, in a conversely set case yields would

decline. Increased Carbon Dioxide also reduces quality of some products, though as

aforementioned plants might benefit as photosynthesis primarily depends on Carbon Dioxide

presence, if enough water and nutrients are not present to counter the rising temperatures yields

would fall consequently. Reducing yields or quality would provide insufficient nutrients to

grazing animals in pastures – thus compromising livestock feeding (Nelson et al).

In another view, extremities of heat and loss or excess of precipitation are far from

favorable situations for growth. With the increased melting of glaciers floods seem to be getting

common in some areas, whilst droughts are the defining situation of others, of which both

conditions are stimulators of crop destruction. In areas where a decreased precipitation level

results to reduced moisture levels in the soil – however one possibility of reducing damage in

those areas is irrigation, which may easily bridge the gap – reduced water supply in places with

less resources would make less water available for irrigation which would mean dry soils with

extremely poor yields.

With warmer temperatures farmers could expect several weeds, pests and fungi growing

about as they thrive well in higher temperatures which would increase contenders for nutrients,

water and light. The increased competition between thriving plant species would not only reduce

the quality but the quantity of the food crops produced.

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Climate change will bring with it a supposedly increased amount of heat waves which

threatens our poultry, livestock and general life. A thing called heat stress could affect the

livestock either directly or in other ways causing diseases amongst them, a reduction in fertility

or milk production which would affect this primary sector terribly. With a reduced quality of

food, livestock would have fewer nutrients in what they consume. Furthermore, prevalence in

parasites would eventually cause the spread of diseases which thrive in warmer climates. To

combat illnesses, loss of yields or other factors harming the growth of the industry veterinary

medicines may be introduced, though for the benefit of the animals, but they may have their own

harmful side effects for both the animals and the consumers.

In fisheries, migration would only result in either the introduction of invasive species or

the increase of competition in areas for food which may disrupt the ecological balance of the

surrounding places. Parasites are also introduced to marine bodies, and the diseased fish may slip

into consumed goods causing harmful effects to those that intake such food.

Lastly, climate change is sure to be a catalyst of a global industrial food crisis, as yields

would continue to fall as climate developments continue worsening at an unpredictable rate. The

falling agricultural productivity, low yields and the decreasing quality of livestock, poultry and

fisheries are sure to cripple many of our industries. Even the safety of the consumed food would

be compromised and food fit for consumption would be hard to find. This is but an image put

before us which must be prevented from becoming the reality at all costs.

This means that global warming is leading the world to a possible food crisis. There are

consistent signs of a developing pattern of effects of climate change on agriculture yields. The

areas already suffering from loss of food and hunger of its population would be the worse victim.
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This does not mean that the other areas which have good crop yield and agricultural stability will

remain unaffected. Wheeler has concluded that the available research highlights that the world

needs to attend to this possible crisis and make proper investment to avoid such a grave situation.

He calls for investment in “adaptation and mitigation actions toward a “climate-smart food

system” that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.” (82).

Economic Impacts

According to what we have already brought under discussion, global warming could

potentially ruin our global agriculture sectors and cause the extinction of several species in our

world. In the stage for global warming, the rising act of this disaster could damage international

economies with the changes it will catalyze in our environment.

With the aforementioned rise of sea-levels, floods, droughts, wildfires, and a growing

extremity in storm strength would result in a loss of infrastructure. Infrastructural losses would

translate to economic losses as destructions of buildings, roads, communication facilities, homes

etc. These would not only delay progress but would garner casualties too. With such problems

the allocation of resources would go to the repair of damages, often even requiring assistance

from foreign companies in the form of aid – thus resulting in a reduction of profit as the quantity

of resources allocated to economic growth or benefit would be greatly reduced ("Global

Warming Effects On The Economy").

In respect to daily life, climate change can disrupt routines of several industries –

including going to normal everyday places, like schools, offices, hospitals etc. – with disruptions

in trade and transport that could constrict the flow of goods to and from countries affecting the

balance of payment of different areas. The harm to agriculture, fisheries and livestock would
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indicate a loss of substances for secondary industries which would mean a need to increase

imports. Raised imports would demand more money, and hence a further loss of money to spend

on progress for the sustenance of the economy.

Storms would end up troubling communication, stopping industrial activities, harming

fisheries, delay travel, cause power outages etc. which would but hinder work in many

establishments causing further losses in businesses. Spreading diseases also reduce the amount of

people attending work which would only cause adverse effects in institutions. With natural

disasters like flooding and drought also spreading their influences in widespread areas, some

places may become inhospitable to people in matters related to productivity, economical

situations and presence of resources which would encourage mass migration to places found to

be better in relation to their homes. Such a social disruption would result in civil unrest. People

moving to the new areas may introduce a series of problems related to housing or a burden on the

resources available. They may or may not be provided employment, specifically putting into

consideration the rapid rise in global population and the requirements for the sustenance of a

large populace. Crime rates may hence increase as migrants/locals are not provided their needs

which may even lead to military interventions in places where situations deteriorate terribly, in

an uncontrolled way.

The researchers recently found that temperature changes on account of unmitigated

global warming would decrease global GDP per capita by 23% in 2100. The temperature spikes

would benefit some areas while throwing others into a series of distressing problems, considering

that northern areas would benefit mostly, this would bring a stupendous rise to global inequality

which would be further highlight since many northern countries are already better off than the

ones with a hotter climate. Countries with average annual temperatures above 13°C (55°F)
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would face decreased economic growth with rising temperatures. In cooler countries would

cause an economic boost. With these unpredictable developments, or beliefs as to what will

happen, our race has been thrown into the folds of a global crisis that must be addressed before

the situation comes to a rapid decline into an uncertain, but bleak future ("Global Warming

Effects On The Economy").

Human Health Impacts

Change in climate on the earth is due to the increased human activity affecting the

atmosphere. It is the humans themselves who incur and face greatest threat to their health and

life. Oceans have been acidified, land degraded, ozone disrupted, soil fertility has been badly

affected, water resources poisoned, and many other harms have been inflicted upon the

ecosystem and biodiversity. All this has contributed to the adverse effects upon human health as

well. There is no denying the fact that warmer temperatures would bring imminent longer, hotter

heat waves thus, the number of heat related deaths, in areas with previously hot climates; though

this would be but a case found with people that are poorer. Those that can afford facilities like

air-conditioning could easily avoid any form of harm from such a case. Though any kind of

exposure to strong heat can cause strokes, dehydration – a problem that is worsened with

lessened intake of water – cardiovascular problems would be introduced into the mix of

cerebrovascular and respiratory illnesses. In this case too, a specific group of people with the

amount of exposure would be affected such as workers, builders, pupils, sportsmen, and the poor

would be easily susceptible. Urban populations would be largely susceptible than rural ones due

to the increased amount of heat due to traffic, industries etc. in those areas.
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Global warming is caused by changes in our air conditions and would eventually also

result in further changes in its quality. The first indicative problem of worsening air quality

would be respiratory problems like that of asthma attacks getting frequent in areas with rapidly

declining air conditions. Increasing Carbon Dioxide would also help airborne allergens thrive.

Ozone at the ground-level that is the troposphere is also expected to rise, which may be a cause

of a decreased mortality rate, problems with the lungs – for example a decrease in functioning or

the tissue of the organ, in general with the inflammation of air passages, the bronchi, trachea,

bronchioles – and if nothing is done to counter the growing ozone concentration premature

deaths are predicted to increase.

With increasing pollution in the air lung cancer would become more common amongst

people. Pulmonary diseases and the aforementioned cardiovascular problems would follow close

behind the leading problems. The time-span for thriving allergens may change with the changes

in seasons further introducing problems that may have previously been managed. Certain

chemicals could prove to be asthma triggers causing harm to those that have the condition in

areas with poor air quality.

Storms, floods, droughts could introduce water-borne diseases, with a lack of provision of

safe drinking water due to the ensuing disasters. Damages to transportation facilities would

hinder one from reaching hospitals or medical stores when required which may put many lives at

risk in case of such a disaster. Carbon monoxide may also be produced by the incorrect use of

electric generators which is dangerous for humans due to its great affinity for hemoglobin which

would possibly render some/all of our blood useless. Intestinal illnesses, mental illnesses – such

as PTSD – and stomach problems would also be prevalent. Vector borne diseases would also

begin to thrive rapidly as many vectors fare well in higher temperatures, which may lead to
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previously controlled diseases re-emerging as outbreaks in different areas which lack the

resources to handle them. The impact of waterborne pathogens would also rise as it is related

directly to flood risks.

A study by Shakoor et al. have indicated that all the parts of the UK are exposed to “heat-

related and cold-related mortality.” The researchers observed that the elderly are the most

vulnerable. They concluded that if necessary measures like adaptation is not brought into effect

the death toll due to heat and the related phenomenon could rise significantly by the year 2050.

This is only related to a state where the health care and services are far better than the average

population and countries of the world. With all these possible health problems facing human, our

mortality rate would decrease. Though the problems can be addressed once they directly face us,

realizing the gravity of the situation and addressing them as soon as one possibly can would not

only be better for us, but for the general sustainability of the environment for our future

generations.

Conclusion

Global warming is a now a known phenomenon. The scientific research and studies have

made the important states, international organizations and the non-governmental institutions

realize the potential threat. There is no denying the fact that the industrial revolution has

introduced technology that is useful for human progress and plays a major part in development in

all areas of human life. However, it has also led the world to a grave danger in the form of global

warming, climate change and the resultant havocs. While the global community and the

international conscience is awake and the efforts are being made to figure out the ways to cope

with the issue better without compromising the present needs. Some industrial countries are
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however not as conscious as the others are. The world community needs to bring this matter

more forcefully to make countries such the US and China realize the threat and help the UN and

other concerned organizations reach a consensus strategy. If humans of today will show greed,

remain careless and ignore their future the threat looming large will not spare any in the long run.

It will strike every one democratically. Individuals also need to be responsible. Even the small

children need to be educated and advised to make use of the resources wisely and affectively, opt

for environment friendly material and save energy and give life to the planet.
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Works Cited

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letters 15.4 (2012): 365-377.

Bowen, James. "Climate Change and the Future of Reefs." The Coral Reef Era: From Discovery

to Decline. Springer International Publishing, 2015. 165-175.

“Global Warming Effects On The Economy". Climatehotmap.Org, 2016,

http://www.climatehotmap.org/global-warming-effects/economy.html.
“Global Warming: 2016 Articles, Facts, Causes & Effects". Live Science, 2016,

http://www.livescience.com/topics/global-warming.
Hajat, Shakoor, et al. "Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-

related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s." Journal of

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Vulnerability: Regional Aspects. Cambridge University Press, 2014.

Maslin, Mark. Climate: A Very Short Introduction. OUP Oxford, 2013.
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decline?." Science 341.6145 (2013): 504-508.

Nelson, Gerald C., et al. "Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to

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3274-3279.
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groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on

climate change. IPCC, 2014.

Wheeler, Tim, and Joachim Von Braun. "Climate change impacts on global food

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