Chana-Crop Survey

And Analysis
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A Brief Overview
Kunal Shah
Head - Commodity Research
When UN chose 2016 as the International Year of Pulses, no one thought that the scenario would be too farcical
especially in India as pulses was making headlines in the year which just strolled past us, unfortunately, for the
Nikhil Murali
Research Associate wrong reasons. Pulses – a major source of protein to a large mass across the globe saw a huge spike in its prices
Agri-Commodities unprecedented in recent times making it inaccessible to a large class of people.

Price movement of Pulses (July 2015 - October 2015)

Price movement of Pulses (July 2015- October 2015)

14000

13000

12000

11000
Rupees per Quintal

10000

9000 Chana
Tur
8000
Urad

7000 Masoor

6000

5000

4000

Source: NB Research

The price of Tur rose from ` 7150 per quintal on 1st of July to a high of ` 13,500 per quintal in mid-October i.e.
by a staggering 89% in a span of just three and a half months! Urad also recorded a hike of 78% in this time
period. Chana and Masoor followed suit with 22% and 8% price rise respectively. At this juncture, it would be
interesting to analyze the Supply-Demand fundamentals governing the market both domestically and
internationally to get a hold of the market.

Chickpea/Chana

Chickpea or Chana is one of the most important pulse crop cultivated throughout the world. India is the largest
producer and consumer of Chana in the world. There are two major varieties of Chana – Desi and Kabuli.
Around 80% of the Chana produced worldwide is of Desi type and the rest is of Kabuli variety. In India also Desi
variety is the most commonly cultivated one.

Cultivation Pattern

Chana doesn’t need much rainfall so it is mostly grown in drier areas. But it too requires sufficient water at
different stages of its growth phase. Chana grows well in sandy, loamy soils which have an appropriate
drainage system as water logging is detrimental to the crop. It needs relatively cooler climatic conditions as
excessive heat will affect the pod development and pod maturation badly.

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Ideal Cultivation Requirements

Temperature 24-30 0C
Annual Rainfall 65-95 cm
pH Range 5.5-7
Soil Type Sand, loamy soil
Seed rate 60 kg/ha
Plant density 25-30 per sq m
Spacing 30-45 cm row spacing

Crop Calendar

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Australia
Pakistan
Canada
Turkey

Source: NB Research; Sowing: Harvest:

Chana Acreage –State wise

According to our analysis, this year, the total acreage for Chana came down to 77.03 lakh hectares from 78.3
lakh hectares last year. Acreage dropped in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh
while it went up in Maharashtra and Karnataka.

Chana Acreage (In Lakh hectares)

State 2015-16* 2014-15
Madhya Pradesh 23.5 28
Maharashtra 15.03 12.79
Rajasthan 12.35 12.56
Karnataka 14.94 10.41
Andhra Pradesh 3.32 2.67
Uttar Pradesh 3.89 5.87
Others 4 6
Total 77.03 78.3

Source: - Ministry of Agriculture, NB Research *Estimate

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Supply Scenario

Chana Production – Indian Perspective

Rajasthan

Rajasthan, one of the major Chana producing states, normally contributes more than 15% to the total
production of our country. As per Department of Agriculture, total area sown this year is around 12.35 lakh
hectares compared to 12.56 lakh hectares last year.

Sikar–Churu-Jhunjhunu Belt

Sowing of Chana in this area commenced in mid-November as expected. Due to the high prices fetched by
Chana last year, farmers didn’t had to give a second thought regarding sowing. So we expect the Chana
acreage in this area more or less to be the same as last year. Apart from Desi chickpea varieties, SML 662 and
668 are two varieties which are quite popular in these regions.

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When we visited this area in the second week of January, the crop was almost 2 months old.

Crop At Initial Growth Stage: Late Sowing - Sikar

Most of the crops were in the flowering stage and pod initiation has started in some areas. There were no signs
of pest infestations or disease. But the climatic conditions especially the temperature and rainfall was
unfavorable for the crop. The Max temperature ideal at this point of time is around 23-24ºC and Min
temperature ideal is around 5 degree. But on the contrary the Max temperature was in the range of 27-28ºC
and the min temperature was around 9-10ºC. Considering all this in mind, we expect the yield to drop in this
area.

Hanumangarh – Sri Ganganagar – Bikaner Belt

This is one of the major Chana growing regions of Rajasthan.

Some of the fields near Gajner area were irrigated, but still

chana is mostly cultivated as a rainfed crop. The crop was almost

two and a half month old and was about 1-1.5 feet high.

In Sri Ganganagar, we witnessed stunted growth of the crop

due to severe moisture stress.

2.5 Month Old Crop - Early Sown, Gajner Region

Crop Under Moisture Stress - Sri Ganganagar 2 Month Old Crop - Sri Ganganagar

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Some crops were damaged in Bikaner region due to the uneven

temperatures persisting in the region.

According to farmers, the warmer winter will most probably affect yield of

the crop. Though crop was comparatively in good condition in irrigated

fields, moisture stress was clearly visible in unirrigated fields.

Damaged Crop In Bikaner Area

Kota – Baran – Jhalawar Belt

Though it’s not a major area, still it’s a traditional Chana cultivation tract mainly due to its proximity to Madhya Pradesh. Most

of the fields near Jhalawar was reeling under moisture stress and warmer temperature. The crop was almost 3 month old and

the pods were mature.

Crop Ready To Harvest - Jhalawar Matured Chana -Jhalawar Region

But unfortunately pods were just falling to the ground

before its normal harvesting time due to excess heat. The

number of branches per plant and number of pods per

branch were less than the standard count. This is a clear

indication that the yield will be affected in a great way in

this region. The condition of the crop was almost similar in

the nearby areas of Baran and Kota, though some of the

fields which were irrigated were in good shape.

Other small pockets like Nagaur, Chittorgarh, areas near
Uneven Crop Growth - Baran Jaipur also had the same climatic conditions which indicate

that the crop was under moisture stress.

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Overall outlook

Considering the existing climatic conditions in Rajasthan, we expect the yield to drop below the normal levels. Few regions

in Bikaner, Jaisalmer, Sriganganar, Hanumangarh, Churu & Junjhunu have received mild showers during mid-February which

can be supportive for late-sown Chana crops. The yield will be in the range of 5-6 Quintals/ha approximately. So the overall

production will be around 15-20% lower than last year.

Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh is the largest Chana producing state contributing around 40% of the total Chana production of the country.

As per Department of Agriculture, total area sown this year is around 23.5 lakh hectares compared to 28 lakh hectares last

year. According to our analysis, some of the crop area of Chana got shifted to wheat and masoor.

Ujjain – Indore - Dewas Belt

In Ujjain and Dewas, sowing of Chana started around October end-November first week period. Desi varieties are more

popular among the farmers here. We couldn’t find any pest infestations or disease in the crop. Crops were in the pod

development stage. The area was under moisture stress as it hadn’t rained for past one month. But the crops were in good

condition where irrigation facilities were there.

The temperature in the region was in the range of 27-15 degree Celsius. We expect the yield to be affected to some extent,
if the climatic conditions continue to be the same.

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Decrease In Seed Count- Dewas Irrigated Field In Dewas

Sowing of Chana in Indore region started from second week of October. Farmers mostly prefer varieties like Phule G 87207,

GCP-107 and JG-14. Deficient rainfall and warmer winter persisting in this region will have a major impact on the yield.

Rajgarh – Shajapur – Sehore Belt

In Rajgarh area, sowing of Chana started in November first week. We observed that this year, many farmers in this area shifted

from Chana crop to Masoor because of the high prices prevailing for the latter. So obviously acreage of Chana will see a

significant drop in this area. The standing crop is in good condition devoid of any pest attack or disease.

Crop At Flowering Stage - Rajgarh Area

Both Desi and Kabuli varieties are grown in Shajapur region. Sowing commenced on mid-October itself. Standing crop is in

good condition as it rained on the second week of January which is a great relief for the farmers.

Vidisha – Guna - Shivpuri Belt

This is the major Chana growing belt of Madhya Pradesh. In Vidisha

region, we observed that some of the farmers shifted from growing

chana to wheat due to the favorable climate for the latter persisting

there over a period of time. So we expect the acreage of Chana to

slightly dip in this region. The yield of the standing crop will also be

less compared to last year.

Pod Maturation- Different Stages: Ganj Basoda

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In Guna region, standing crop is in good condition due to the

favorable climatic conditions existing for the past one month.

Though the warmer winter is posing a threat to the yield, the soil

moisture level has improved as it rained on mid-January and first

week of February. The crops are devoid of any pest infestations or

disease. Considering all this factors, we expect the yield to be higher

in this region.

Crop Condition - Guna

Sowing of Chana started in the last week of October in Shivpuri

region. Here, farmers mostly prefer Desi Chana to other varieties. As

this region received heavy rainfall during this time, the soil moisture

level was in the sufficient range for the good growth of the crop.

Crop Condition- Shivpuri

Small showers on the last week of November and mid-January can also be seen as a positive sign. But the temperature was

not in the ideal range for the growth of the crop. We don’t expect a major dip in the yield considering these factors.

Sagar – Chattarpur – Damoh Belt

All these regions received good rainfall around October last week which gave an impetus to the farmer to commence sowing

of Chana on November first week itself. Apart from Desi variety, GG-11 variety is popular among these regions. The standing

crop is in good condition though lack of cooler climate can affect the output.

Crop At Pod Development Stage - Sagar

Fortunately these regions are not under moisture stress as it rained in mid-Jan and in mid-Feb also, which will definitely

catalyze proper pod development and pod maturation.

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Overall outlook

Taking into consideration the present climatic conditions persisting in MP, we expect the production to drop by 10-15% from

last year’s levels. Yield will drop to 7-8 Quintals/ha this year which is lower than last year.

Maharashtra

Over the years, Maharashtra surpassed Rajasthan to become the second largest Chana producing state. According to

Department of Agriculture, Chana acreage in Maharashtra increased from 12.79 lakh last year to 15.03 lakh hectares this year.

But according to our analysis, this increase in acreage won’t materialize into surplus production as the yield in this region will

be affected due to unfavorable climate persisting there.

Farmers in Maharashtra mostly prefer Vishal and Vijay varieties of Chana. In certain areas like Amravati and Ahmednagar,

sowing commenced on as early as October first week. But deficient rainfall led to late sowing in regions like Nashik and

Jalgaon. Other major Chana growing regions like Buldhana, Washim and Yavatmal are also reeling under moisture stress. The

picture in Akola, another major Chana growing tract is also similar except that slight showers in mid-Jan eased the situation

a little bit. Though there are no incidents of pest infestations or disease from any of these regions, the yield is expected to fall

as the deficient rainfall and higher temperatures persisting here throughout the crop growth cycle will play a major

spoilsport.

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Uttar Pradesh

As per Department of Agriculture, acreage of Chana this year dipped to 3.89 lakh hectares compared to 5.87 lakh hectares

last year. The regions adjoining Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan like Lalitpur, Jhansi, Mahoba, Chitrakoot, Fatehpur, Kanpur etc

are the major Chana growing areas of UP.

Sowing of Chana commenced on mid-November in most of the areas. Desi, Kabuli, Pusa 362, Gaurav, etc are the most popular

varieties in these regions. Though in mid-Jan most of these regions were blessed by nature, it was just a small relief as most

of the regions are still under moisture stress. But the standing crop is in good condition because of the favorable

temperature range persisting for the last one month. No incidents of pest attack or disease have been reported till now.

Considering all these factors, we expect the yield to be higher in areas where irrigation facilities exist and yield to be slightly

lower in areas where the crop is rain-fed.

Andhra Pradesh

One of the top ten Chana producing states, AP witnessed its Chana acreage surging from 2.67 lakh hectares last year to 3.32

lakh hectares this year.

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Kurnool, Prakasam and Anantapur are the major Chana growing districts of AP. Sowing in these areas commenced on

mid-October itself. JG-11 is the most common variety preferred by farmers. The crop growth is good as the region received

sufficient rainfall during the growth stage. Harvesting has started in some areas where sowing was done as early as October

first week. We expect the yield to be higher than last year in all these regions as the climatic conditions persisting are

conducive to proper pod development and maturation.

Karnataka

Karnataka, with a surge in acreage from 10.41 lakh hectares last year to 14.94 lakh hectares this year, is fast becoming a major
chickpea growing state in South India.

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The northern belt of Karnataka comprising Bijapur, Bagalkot, Raichur, Gadag and Dharwad are the major Chana growing

areas of Karnataka. In most of the regions, sowing started in October first week itself. Farmers mostly prefer varieties like

Annagiri, JG-11 and local varieties like Jawari. Deficient rainfall and higher temperature have taken a heavy toll on the

growth of the plant. Harvesting have already started in most of the areas. We expect the yield to be lower, which will

definitely reduce the production gains the state could have achieved because of the higher acreage.

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Yield Calculation

Abiotic stresses like heat and drought are the two factors which play a major role in determining the yield of the Chickpea

crop. Plant height, Number of primary and secondary branches, number of pods per plant, pod weight (gm/plant), seed

weight, etc are some of the common parameters used for assessing the yield of a plant.

Observations

In Rajasthan, we observed stunted growth of the plant due to excess heat and deficient rainfall. The number of primary and

secondary branches was less and the number of pods per plant was only around 30-35 whereas it has to be 50-60 normally.

Most of the pods contained only one bean instead of two. Considering all these factors, we expect the yield to drop

considerably from the normal figures.

In Madhya Pradesh also the scenario was almost similar to Rajasthan except that the crop was in comparatively better

condition in the former part. The unirrigated fields were reeling under moisture stress and the plant growth has been

affected badly. The number of pods per plant was in the range of 35-40 only. Due to excess heat, the pod development in the

uppermost branches of the plant has been affected very badly. Considering all these factors, we expect the yield to be below

normal this year.

Production Forecast (2015-16)

State Production

Madhya Pradesh 19

Maharashtra 9

Rajasthan 7.5

Karnataka 5.5

Andhra Pradesh 3

Uttar Pradesh 1

Others 5

Total 50

Source: - NB Research, Figures in Lakh Metric tonnes

Imports

The domestic demand of Chana is so huge that every year we have to depend on imports to meet our needs. The graph given

below showcases the imports to India in the year 2015. The year 2015 witnessed a huge inflow of Chana mainly from

Australia as we were facing a shortage of Chana due to less production. We imported around 11, 12,680 tonnes of Chana in

the previous year which is an all-time record. Bumper crop in Australia this year gave an impetus to this scenario.

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Imports

310000

260000
Metric Tonnes

210000

160000 Imports

110000

60000

10000
Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: NB Research; Figures in metric tonnes

Demand Scenario

India is the largest producer and consumer of Chickpea in the world. Normally, the domestic consumption of Chana is in the

range of 60-65 lakh tonnes annually. If the price of Chana skyrockets, ‘substitution’ comes into picture i.e. chana is substituted

with yellow peas or other cheaper alternatives. The good parity existing between Chana and Yellow peas is definitely a

positive cue for the same. Year on Year, around 6-7 lakh tonnes of Chana is retained for sowing purpose. Other than that, we

used to export around 2-3 lakh tonnes of Chana annually.

Chana – Yellow Peas Spread Analysis

The parity existing between Chana and Yellow Peas plays a critical role in deciding the level of substitution in the market.

3000

2500

2000

1500
Rupees per Qtl

1000

500

Source: NB Research, NCDEX

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From the Chana-Yellow Peas Spread chart given above, it’s understood that the spread widened after April and stayed in the

range of ` 1500- ` 2000 till the end of the year. It even tested a high of ` 2700 in November before gradually narrowing

down. We expect the spread to narrow down in March when peak arrival season of Chana commences. But in the succeeding

months, the spread will definitely move up as the price of Chana will pick up gradually owing to the supply-demand

disparity.
Exports

India mainly exports Kabuli Chana in the range of 2-3 lakh tonnes annually. For the past few years, the exports are coming

down as we are facing supply tightness due to less domestic production. In the year 2015-16, we exported around 1.55 lakh

tonnes (Estimate) of Chana and we expect our exports to decline to 1.2 lakh tonnes in the year 2016-17(Forecast).

Exports

375000
325000
275000
Metric Tonnes

225000
175000
125000
75000
25000
-25000

Source: NB Research; Figures in Metric tonnes, *Forecast

Chana Balance Sheet (In Lakh Tonnes)

Particulars 2014-15 2015-16 (F)

Opening Stocks 2.5 1.1
Production* 63 50
Imports 7 13.9
Total Supply 72.5 65
Domestic Consumption 62 56
Exports 1.9 1.55
Retention for Sowing 7.5 7
Total Demand 71.4 64.55
Ending Stocks 1.1 0.45
Stock to Use 1.54% 0.70%
Source: - NB Research, Trade estimates; *Crop year:-Mar-Feb

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Global Scenario

India is the largest producer of Chickpea followed by Australia, Pakistan, Turkey and Canada. Australia surpassed Pakistan and

Turkey to become the second largest Chickpea producing nation within a short period. The shortage of pulses in India has

given a major impetus to the chickpea production in Australia. At this juncture, it will be interesting to track the

undercurrents in the global scenario to decipher the ‘big picture’.

Australia

With a production of 990,000 tonnes last year, Australia muscled its way as a major player in the global pulses trade within a

short period.

Courtesy: Pulse Australia

The mere fact that more than 90% of the chickpea grown in Australia is exported shows the way they control the global

chickpea trade. It’s interesting to note that compared to India’s Chickpea production, these figures are miniscule; but our
domestic consumption is too high that we have to depend on imports every year.

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Courtesy: - Pests and Diseases Image Library

Geographically, chickpea production in Australia is mainly concentrated in the regions of Queensland and New South Wales,

and in small pockets of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.

Production trend

The Chickpea production in Australia reached an all-time high of 990,000MT in the year 2015. The graph given below shows

the production trend in Australia for the last 6 years.

Chickpea Production-Australia

1200000

1000000
.4%

800000
59
Metric Tonnes

600000

400000

200000

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: ABARES, NB Research

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Australian Chickpea Balance Sheet

Particulars 2014-15 2015-16

Opening Stocks 42001 801
Production 621407 990000
Total Supply 663408 990801
Consumption
Exports 609000 857000
Seed 50500 38700
Feed & Other 3107 4100
Total Demand 662607 899800
Ending Stocks 801 91001
Stock to Use 0.12% 10.11%
Source: - StatPub; Figures in Metric Tonnes

Crop Forecast

Chickpea sowing normally start during the months of May-June; so it’s pretty early to comment on this year’s production. But

it’s certain that this time also their target will be to replicate last year’s success story. The higher price realization will

motivate more farmers to sow chickpea, so we can expect the acreage to surge this year. But the climatic conditions

prevailing at the time of sowing and during the crop growth may determine the yield and ultimately the crop size. Anyhow

this year targeted production will be 1mn tonnes.

Meteorologists fear that a La Nina is brewing up in the Pacific Ocean which may result in the weather in New South Wales,

South Australia and Victoria to be wetter than usual for the next 6 months. Starting Soil Water, water required at each growth
phase, etc is critical in determining the yield of the plant. On the other hand, water logging is detrimental to the growth of

the plant. So it can either be a boon or a bane for the crop depending upon the timing and the amount of rainfall.

Domestic Price Scenario

On NCDEX, Chana futures skyrocketed from ` 3455 on 1st Jan 2015 to ` 5404 on 17th November 2015 i.e. a staggering 56%
increase.

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Futures Price

5500

5000

Rupees per Qntl 4500

4000 Futures Price

3500

3000

Source: NCDEX, NB Research

This spike in price can be mainly attributed to the supply tightness felt in the market due to less production. The deficient

monsoon also gave momentum to this trend. During the peak demand season of Oct-Nov, it crossed the ` 5000 mark. Almost
all the pulses were trading at record rates which resulted in public anger against the inflationary tendencies persisting in the

agri-market. This led to the situation where the government resorted to Anti-hoarding measures and imposed stock limits in

the major states. Though these steps eased the prices a little bit, it was only for a short while as the supply in the market

didn’t improve as expected. Imports from Australia started to arrive from the month of November which catered our

domestic consumption. From January onwards the prices gradually started its downward journey as the expectation of the

new crop and the sluggish demand put the market under pressure.

Basis

The Spot price (Delhi) and Chana Futures price (NCDEX) are not always in tandem as you can infer from the graph given

below.

500

400

300

200

100
Basis

-100

-200

Source: NCDEX, NB Research

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If we examine the basis, it’s interesting to note that till April, Futures price lead Spot price and the trend reversed after that.

Normally, April is the month when we witness peak arrivals at all major mandis. From April onwards the spot price lead

futures price though in the month of August the basis weakened and was trading in the range of 100. But the basis again

strengthened in the months of October and November which is the peak demand season. The trend reversed in the month

of December but only for a short while and again the basis started its reign in the positive territory. In the month of January,

to be more specific, on January 25, the basis widened to an all-time high of 442 as the Spot price in Delhi rose to ` 4700 on

account of limited supplies in the mandis. This trend is continuing in the month of February also and we can expect the trend

to reverse from the month of March onwards. The basis will narrow in the coming months considering the fact that the stocks

in warehouses are negligible. We expect the basis to trace back to the levels of 350-300 in the near future and weaken to the

levels of 200-100 in the months of August and September. This weakening of basis will be a relief to the short hedger and the

strengthening of basis in the succeeding months will make the long hedgers’ delighted.

Price Outlook

According to our analysis, we expect the Chana production to be around 20% less than last year i.e. around 50 lakh tonnes

(Forecast) in 2015-16. We expect the prices to move up taking this cue from the market. But in March, the peak arrival season,

we expect the prices to take a hit. NCDEX April contract can test the levels of ` 4100- `4000. But the prices will correct once

the arrival pressure eases a little. From May onwards we expect the prices to shoot up and test the levels of ` 5000 in the

months of September-October. And moreover depending upon the monsoon, the prices can take a turn in either ways. But

any rise in price above ` 5000 may lead to government intervention in the form of Anti-hoarding measures and imposition

of Stock limits. As our production will be lower this time, this year also imports from Australia will be playing a major role in

easing the domestic demand. So price can move sideways to down in the months of December-January when the imports

from Australia reaches our ports. But if the Australian chickpea production is somehow affected because of La Nina or any

other vagaries of nature, both spot and futures price will remain strong in India even in the months of December-January. So

considering all these factors, we expect Chana to be Long-term Bullish both in Futures and Spot market.

So we recommend to Buy NCDEX Chana at the rate of ` 3900- `4100 with a long-term outlook that the prices will test `

5000- ` 5100 within the month of November.

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COMMODITY & CURRENCY RESEARCH TEAM

Name Designation E-mail

Kunal Shah Research Head kunal.shah@nirmalbang.com

Devidas Rajadhikary Sr. Research Analyst devidas.rajadhikary@nirmalbang.com
Harshal Mehta Sr. Research Analyst harshal.mehta@nirmalbang.com
Mohammed Azeem Research Analyst mohammed.gaziani@nirmalbang.com
Ravi D'souza Research Analyst ravi.dsouza@nirmalbang.com
Nikhil Murali Research Associate nikhil.murali@nirmalbang.com
Anish G Research Associate anish.g@nirmalbang.com
Smit Bhayani Research Associate smit.bhayani@nirmalbang.com

Disclaimer

This Document has been prepared by N.B. Commodity Research (A Division of Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd). The information, analysis

and estimates contained herein are based on N.B. Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be

reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents N.B. Commodities Research

responsible for the contents stated herein. N.B. Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from

company mentioned in this document.

Address: Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd., B2, 301 / 302, 3rd Floor, Marathon Innova, Opp. Peninsula Corporate Park, Ganpatrao Kadam

Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai - 400 013, India

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