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 8 uniondaily.net
China looms large over
Myanmar war and peace
Beijing has shrewdly harnessed the power of ethnic
armed groups to pursue strategic stability rather
than a fast and final peace deal
By Bertil Lintner
Myanmar’s govern-
ment and various ethnic
armed groups are tenta-
tively scheduled to meet
next month for a third
round of peace talks that
have so far failed to deliv-
er any tangible results.
Now, China’s rising in-
fluence over the talks has
complicated what was al-
ready a tangled process
due to widely divergent
perceptions of the ultimate
purpose of the exercise.
Myanmar’s civil and
military authorities have
insisted that armed ethnic
groups sign a Nationwide
Ceasefire Agreement
(NCA) before any substan-
tial talks are held on the
country’s political future.
The military has also
made clear that it wants to
implement a “DDR”, or dis-
armament, demobilization
and reintegration, program
for ethnic armies as soon
United Wa State Army soldiers march during a media display in Wa territory in northeast Myanmar October 4,
2016. Photo: Reuters/Soe Zeya Tun
as possible. Most armed
groups view DDR as tan-
tamount to surrender and
have countered that polit-
ical talks must be held
before signing the NCA.
State Counsellor Aung
San Suu Kyi’s peace initia-
tive, known as 21st Centu-
ry Panglong, has received
rich backing from Western
nations that view peace as
essential to consolidating
the country’s democratic
transition.
The European Union,
Norway, Sweden, Switzer-
land, Japan, Britain and
Australia have all poured
in millions of dollars into
what has become known
cynically in some Yangon
circles as “the peace indus-
trial complex.”
China, which has huge
strategic interests in neigh-
boring Myanmar, including
a pipeline that aims to di-
versify its vital fuel ship-
ment routes, does not nec-
Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at
the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on August 19, 2016. Photo: AFP/Rolex
Dela Pena/Pool
essarily want the same type
of peace that Suu Kyi and
the West apparently envision.
Observers familiar with
Beijing’s thinking on My-
anmar say it wants “strate-
gic stability” it can control
and which protects its
long-term interests.
Continued war in bor-
der areas that cause waves
of refugees to flee into
Chinese territory is clearly
not in Beijing’s interest. At
the same time, a success-
ful NCA followed by a
DDR program would de-
prive China of the lever-
age it currently has over
certain armed ethnic orga-
nizations, including the
powerful United Wa State
Army (UWSA).
Beijing has long used
that leverage as a bargain-
ing chip with Naypyidaw
in pursuit of its wider stra-
tegic agenda.
Seven ethnic armed
groups, mostly based in
Vol.6, No.20, 20-1-2018, Saturday
Myanmar’s north, recently
formed the Federal Politi-
cal Negotiating and Con-
sultative Committee (FP-
NCC). In April, the umbrel-
la group issued a counter-
proposal to the govern-
ment’s plan that called for
political dialogue towards
federalism. It also called for
the withdrawal of Myan-
mar forces from all ethnic
conflict areas.
Led by the UWSA, the
FPNCC also includes the
Kachin Independence
Army (KIA), the Ta’ang
National Liberation Army
active among the ethnic
Palaungs in northern Shan
state; the Shan State Army;
the Myanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army
in Kokang in northeastern
Shan state; the National
Democratic Alliance Army
in eastern Shan state; and
the Arakan Army in west-
ern Rakhine state.
China is the only coun-
try with influence over the
FPNCC, and Beijing is
clearly leveraging that con-
trol in pursuit of its in-
country interests. That in-
cludes completion of the
strategically important
deep-sea port at Kyauk-
phyu in Rakhine state and
its surrounding special
economic zone.
The port is a crucial
link in China’s US$1 tril-
lion ‘One Belt One Road’
infrastructure development
initiative and its rising stra-
tegic ambitions in the Indi-
an Ocean.
The escalating crisis in
Rakhine state, where more
than 600,000 Muslim Ro-
hingyas have fled into
neighboring Bangladesh
since late August, has both
bolstered and undermined
China’s position.
The West has unani-
mously condemned the
Myanmar military’s brutal
onslaught and even threat-
ened to re-impose sanc-
tions which were recently
lifted in reward for a shift
towards more political
openness. China, which
maintains good relations
with both Myanmar and
Bangladesh, has not criti-
cized either and last week
even offered to mediate a
refugee repatriation agree-
ment.
While the Kyaukphyu
port and pipelines are lo-
cated far from the conflict
concentrated in northern
Rakhine state, the refugee
crisis has nevertheless
caused concern in Beijing.
Renewed hostilities in
northern Kachin state have
already torpedoed US$3.6
billion plans to build the
massive Myitsone dam,
from which 90% of the
power generated would
have been exported to
China, and strained bilat-
eral relations.
If a more widespread
insurgency breaks out in
Rakhine state, a possibili-
ty as Rohingya militants
close ranks and regroup, it
could jeopardize China’s
interests.
Western governments’
apparent inability to fully
comprehend China’s de-
signs for Myanmar will
only marginalize the peace-
oriented initiatives and
nongovernmental organi-
zations they richly support.
While Western donor
funds flow to support po-
litically correct-sounding
projects that promote the
To be continued on P-9
Vol.6, No.20, 20-1-2018, Saturday
Continued from P-8
role of civil society, wom-
en and other disenfran-
chised groups in the peace
process, China is adroitly
playing power politics to
protect its vital interests.
And a fast and final
solution to Myanmar’s civil
wars is apparently not part
of Beijing’s plan.
In October 2015, then
president Thein Sein’s
quasi-civilian government
proudly announced that
eight ethnic groups had
signed the NCA. Only
three of the groups were
armed organizations while
the other five were small,
local outfits that were nev-
er involved in serious war-
fare.
In retrospect, it was a
face-saving gesture by
Thein Sein, who wanted to
show Western nations that
something had been
achieved from its lavishly
Shan State Army – South soldiers training at their
headquarters in Loi Tai Leng, in Myanmar’s north-
eastern Shan State. Photo: AFP/KC Ortiz
funded Myanmar Peace
Center (MPC) ahead of the
November 2015 election.
Hopes were high when
Suu Kyi and her National
League for Democracy-led
elected government took
over in March 2016. The
ineffectual MPC was dis-
banded and a new outfit
known as the National
Reconciliation and Peace
Center was formed in July
that year.
While Suu Kyi looked
to end the MPC’s wasteful
and ineffectual practices,
she did not change the
previous regime’s core
policy of insisting on an
NCA before peace talks.
To date, groups represent-
ing 80% of all armed rebels
have refused to sign the
NCA.
That likely suits China
just fine. While the FP-
NCC’s strongest and best
equipped member, the
UWSA, should not be
viewed as a mere Chinese
puppet, its weaponry in-
cluding surface-to-air mis-
siles, heavy artillery and
armored fighting vehicles
all comes from China.
While the UWSA has
emerged at the core of the
China-backed ethnic alli-
ance, the US still has re-
wards out for certain Wa
leaders for drug trafficking,
making it even harder for
Western nations to play a
meaningful role as interme-
diaries between the gov-
ernment and rebels.
While the UWSA has
emerged at the core of the
China-backed ethnic alli-
ance, the US still has re-
wards out for certain Wa
leaders for drug trafficking,
making it even harder for
Western nations to play a
meaningful role as interme-
diaries between the gov-
ernment and rebels.
UWSA leaders are no
doubt close to and take
advise from China, mean-
ing the FPNCC’s counter
peace proposal was at least
tacitly endorsed by
Beijing. Indeed, the FPNCC
said in an August 24 state-
ment that “to be success-
ful, we request China to
[be] more involved in [the]
Myanmar peace process.”
While the West relies
mainly on NGOs and civil
society initiatives to pur-
sue its vision of peace in
Myanmar, China has
shrewdly harnessed the
power of the ethnic armed
groups themselves to pur-
sue its competing interests.
uniondaily.net
Japan stands by
Myanmar, lest
China gain favor
YOSUKE ONCHI and YUI-
CHI NITTA, Nikkei staff
writers
TOKYO---Japan has
continued plying Myan-
mar with economic aid
even as the Southeast
Asian nation's treatment of
its Rohingya Muslim mi-
nority has stirred interna-
tional backlash, choosing
the threat of condemnation
over the risk of China tak-
ing over as the preferred
partner.
Foreign Minister Taro
Kono on Saturday became
the first foreign cabinet
official to tour Myanmar's
western state of Rakhine,
home to a large Rohingya
population, since the hu-
manitarian crisis there be-
gan. Japan will continue
supporting efforts by My-
anmar to resettle displaced
persons in the area, Kono
said. This came the day
after he met with State
Counselor and Foreign
Minister Aung San Suu Kyi
and announced $23 million
in fresh aid.
The Rohingya people
were labeled illegal mi-
grants by successive mili-
tary governments in the
Southeast Asian country.
Even after democratization
began, the persecution of
the Muslim minority con-
tinued. Following attacks
by a Rohingya militant
group on Myanmar police
posts in August 2017,
some 650,000 Rohingya
have fled across the bor-
der to Bangladesh, fearing
violence from Myanmar's
military sweeps.
Against the tide
The U.S. in November
blasted the military's cam-
paign as ethnic cleansing.
European countries and
Muslim nations have also
Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono, left, with
Myanmar's de facto civilian leader, State Counselor
Aung San Suu Kyi. © Kyodo
decried Suu Kyi's handling
of the crisis.
But Japan has largely
held its tongue. Though
Tokyo has expressed con-
cern over the human rights
situation, it continues to
support the Myanmar gov-
ernment's attempts to build
a democratic state, main-
taining that the Southeast
Asian nation's self-commit-
ment will be essential to
resolve the Rohingya crisis.
At a United Nations
Human Rights Council
meeting in Geneva on Dec.
5, Japan argued that dia-
logue with Myanmar was
necessary for an effective
fact-finding mission and
abstained when a draft
resolution strongly urging
the country to fully coop-
erate with a U.N. came up
for a vote. Japan also ab-
stained in November when
a U.N. General Assembly
committee on human rights
adopted a resolution con-
demning Myanmar's human
rights record.
In fact, while other
countries have balked, Ja-
pan has ramped up eco-
nomic assistance to My-
anmar. Prime Minister Shin-
zo Abe met with Suu Kyi
at the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations
leaders' summit in Novem-
ber and invited President
Htin Kyaw to Japan in
December. Myanmar "is an
economically, politically
and geopolitically impor-
tant region," a senior offi-
cial in Japan's Ministry of
Foreign Affairs said.
Keeping favor
This is particularly true
as China works to extend
its sphere of influence
across Asia using the Belt
and Road infrastructure-
building initiative. Meeting
with Suu Kyi in Beijing in
December, Chinese Presi-
dent Xi Jinping said his
country was committed to
supporting infrastructure
projects in Myanmar.
To be sure, the South-
east Asian nation offers rich
economic opportunity.
Myanmar's economy has
grown around 7% a year
since 2012, and the gov-
ernment has worked to
improve the investment
environment, including
through deregulation. Ja-
pan has provided strong
government support for the
Thilawa Special Economic
Zone on the outskirts of
9
Yangon, as well as yen fi-
nancing for infrastructure
improvements, to assist
economic reform. As of
November, 369 Japanese
companies had a presence
in the country, according
to the foreign ministry.
Japan's actions in My-
anmar are closely linked to
the Abe government's
"Free and Open Indo-Pa-
cific Strategy" designed to
bring stability and growth
in Asia and Africa. Over-
land routes through My-
anmar could provide a path
between the South China
Sea and the Indian Ocean
that does not rely on ships
navigating the Strait of
Malacca, a traditional
chokepoint for ocean ship-
ping.
The Japanese govern-
ment is working with its
Myanmar and Thai coun-
terparts to develop a spe-
cial economic zone in Da-
wei, a city in southeastern
Myanmar. China, mean-
while, has opened an oil
pipeline between the
southwestern Chinese city
of Kunming and the port
town of Kyaukpyu in
Myanmar and is working
to develop harbor facilities
there.
Myanmar is grateful for
Japan's long-term support,
Suu Kyi told a joint news
conference Friday with
Kono in the capital, Nay-
pyitaw. Japan is aware that
it risks international criti-
cism by continuing to aid
the increasingly isolated
country, but it cannot let
China bolster its influence
over the region unchecked.
"Is it possible that
China wishes to isolate
Japan in the international
community?" a Japanese
government source asked.
 10 jynfwGif;owif; twGJ 6? trSwf 20 (20-1-2018) pae ?

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