Company Update

United Tractors
Bloomberg: UNTR.IJ | Reuters: UNTR.JK

Samuel Research 02 Januari 2018

Expect monthly performance to continue

Hingga periode 11M17 lalu, UNTR masih membukukan kinerja
operasional yang solid. Penjualan Komatsu telah melampaui FY17E SSI
sedangkan segmen MC untuk Coal Getting dan OB masih menunjukan
pertumbuhan yang sejalan dengan proyeksi kami. Tahun ini proyeksi
unit usaha CM dan MC tidak jauh berbeda dengan target perusahaan.
Tahun ini katalis masih akan datang dari ekspektasi stabilnya kinerja
industri dan harga batubara. Tetap BUY UNTR dengan TP Rp41.500,
22.0xP/E17E, 3.1xPBV17E.

Lonjakan penjualan Komatsu hingga 11M17. Penjualan Komatsu di Nov17

sebanyak 409unit bertumbuh solid +30.3%MoM dan melonjak +108.7%YoY,
jauh melampaui ekspektasi kami 308unit. Per 11M17 sebanyak 3.467unit
(+73.2YoY). Dengan manggunakan rata-rata lima tahun historis penjualan
bulanan Des setiap tahunnya, maka total penjualan Komatsu sepanjang
tahun lalu akan mencapai 3.641unit, +4.1% melampaui target UNTR
3.500unit dan jauh diatas proyeksi moderate kami 2.927unit. Tahun ini kami
memproyeksikan penjualan Komatsu akan mencapai 3.898unit atau 2.6%
diatas target UNTR 3.800unit.

Kinerja segmen MC yang masih solid hingga 11M17. Unit usaha MC coal
getting hingga 11M17 +3.2%YoY, sedangkan OB +13.4%YoY atau jauh lebih
baik vs tahun sebelumnya -0.6%YoY dan -10.2%YoY, didorong oleh tidak
adanya permasalahan pengangkutan ditengah tingginya curah hujan di bulan
tersebut. Dengan menambahkan rata-rata historis pencapaian kinerja
bulanan di bulan des setiap tahunnya, maka FY17E coal production
berpotensi sebesar 111.44mn tons, mencapai 93.9% dari FY17E SSI dan
97.8% vs target UNTR. Untuk OB potensi sebanyak 789mn cnm,atau +1.5%
lebih baik dari FY17E SSI (777mn bcm) dan inline vs target UNTR 788unit.
FY18E coal geeting kami perkirakan potensi mencapai 130mn tons dan OB
861mn bcm, sejalan dengan FY18E UNTR : 123mn tons dan 860mn bcm.

Potensi kontinuitas pertumbuhan segmen coal mining. Di Nov17 TTA

membukukan coal sales volume +98.1%MoM dan +24.7%YoY. Untuk FY18E
kami perkirakan mencapai 8.6mn ton atau 87.9% dibawah target UNTR
9.8mn tons dimana 22% diantaranya dikontribuskan oleh coal trading.
Maintain BUY. Pada harga Rp35.075 valuasi UNTR sangat menarik
ditransaksikan pada 15.6x P/E18E konsensus. Beberapa resiko investasi (1)
pembalikan arah kinerja industri dan harga batubara (2) pelemahan
penjualan komatsu (3) penurunan segmen MC maupun CM.
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp35,075 per share) 15.7263
Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 16A 17E 18E 19E 20E
Sales 45,539 50,142 58,419 71,574 88,381
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA EBITDA 9,152 11,797 13,193 20,026 23,532
+62 21 2854 8144 Net Profit 5,002 6,964 7,027 12,370 14,560
akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id
EPS (Rp/saham) 1,341 1,867 1,884 3,316 3,903
DPS (Rp) 488 585 696 805 1,367
Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 3.9
BV per share (Rp) 10,954 12,014 13,252 15,776 18,323
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.3 9.2 8.0 5.0 4.3
P/E Ratio (x) 26.2 18.8 18.6 10.58 8.99
P/BV Ratio (x) 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.9

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 United Tractors
UNTR:IJ |UNTR.JK

Figure 1. UNTR P/E Band

Source: Company, SSI research

Figure 2. Komatsu monthly sales (unit) Figure 3. Komatsu segmentation (unit)

900 Agro Constructions Forestry Mining

800
100%
700 90%
600 80%
70%
500
60%
400 50%
300 40%
30%
200
20%
100 10%
0 0%

Source: Company, SSI Research Source: Company, SSI Research

Figure 4. Coal getting and OB monthly performance Figure 5. Coal sales monthly (000 tons)

Over Burden (mn bcm) Coal (mn ton) 1,400

90 14 1,200
80 12 1,000
70
10
60 800
50 8
600
40 6
30 400
4
20
2 200
10
0 0 0
Nov-12

Aug-13
Nov-13

Aug-14
Nov-14

Aug-15
Nov-15

Aug-16
Nov-16

Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-13

Feb-14

Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17
May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

Source: Company, SSI Research Source: Company, SSI Research

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 United Tractors
UNTR:IJ |UNTR.JK

Key financial figures

Profit and Loss Cash Flow

Rpbn 16A 17E 18E 19E 20E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 16A 17E 18E 19E 20E
Revenue 45,539 50,142 58,419 71,574 88,381 Net income 5,002 6,964 7,027 12,370 14,560
COGS (35,878) (38,429) (45,712) (52,642) (66,777) Depreciation & amort. 2,446 2,820 3,238 3,726 4,313
Gross profit 9,661 11,713 12,707 18,932 21,603 Others (611) (1,092) 606 (615) (577)
Gross margin (%) 21.2 23.4 21.8 26.5 24.4 Working capital 1,993 (1,502) (4,168) (3,101) (2,664)
Operating profit 6,706 8,978 9,955 16,301 19,219 Operating cash flow 8,830 7,190 6,703 12,380 15,631
Operating margin (%) 14.7 17.9 17.0 22.8 21.7 Net - Capex (1,612) (1,851) (2,325) (3,063) (4,045)
EBITDA 9,152 11,797 13,193 20,026 23,532 Investing cash flow (1,784) (2,329) (3,394) (5,395) (8,284)
EBITDA margin (%) 20.1 23.5 22.6 28.0 26.6 Net - Borrowings (1,370) 575 266 277 (1,093)
Other inc (expenses) (42) 201 11 401 458 Other financing (1,628) (1,189) (1,310) (1,667) (7,020)

Pre-tax profit 6,730 9,244 10,032 16,768 19,742 Financing cash flow (2,999) (613) (1,045) (1,390) (8,113)

Income tax - net (1,626) (2,342) (2,801) (4,575) (5,390) Net - Cash flow 4,048 4,247 2,264 5,594 (766)

Net profit 5,002 6,964 7,027 12,370 14,560 Cash at beginning 15,413 19,461 23,708 25,972 31,566

Net profit margin (%) 11.0 13.9 12.0 17.3 16.5 Cash at ending 19,461 23,708 25,972 31,566 30,801

Balance Sheet Key Ratios

Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 16A 17E 18E 19E 20E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 16A 17E 18E 19E 20E

Cash & ST Investment 19,461 23,708 25,972 31,566 30,801 ROE (%) 12.24 15.54 14.22 21.02 21.30

Receivables 12,115 13,901 19,418 23,841 29,490 ROA (%) 7.82 9.73 8.70 12.92 13.32

Inventories 7,108 7,851 9,299 10,840 14,040 Revenue growth (%) 29.8 39.2 0.9 76.0 17.7

Others 3,514 4,848 4,629 6,372 7,902 EPS growth (%) 29.8 39.2 0.9 76.0 17.7

Total current assets 42,197 50,308 59,318 72,620 82,233 Interest coverage (x) 1.35 1.33 1.43 1.36 1.36

Net fixed assets 16,685 15,716 14,803 14,140 13,872 Debt to equity (%) 2.67% 3.85% 4.08% 3.93% 1.80%

Other assets 5,109 5,587 6,656 8,989 13,228 Net gearing (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash

Total assets 63,991 71,611 80,777 95,749 109,333

Payables 14,605 15,631 18,429 21,292 27,477 Major assumptions

ST. debt & curr. maturity 1,028 1,144 1,337 1,531 1,233 16A 17E 18E 19E 20E

Other current liabilities 2,723 3,333 3,720 4,848 5,802 Komatsu (units) 2181 2927 3898 4217 4604

LT. debt 224 683 756 839 44 Coal prod (mn tons) 109.2 118.7 130.2 147.4 170.6

Other lt liabilities 2,790 3,764 4,364 5,184 2,839 OB (mn bcm) 702 777 861 981 1,140

Total liabilities 21,369 24,555 28,606 33,695 37,394 Coal sales vol (mn tons) 6,808 6,468 8,615 11,121 13,519

Total equity 42,622 47,056 52,171 62,054 71,939 Coal ASP (US$/MT ton) 60 75 75 75 80

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 Research Team

Head Of Equity Research, Strategy,

Andy Ferdinand, CFA andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148
Banking, Consumer

Ahmad Mikail Economist ahmad.mikail@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396

Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Arandi Ariantara
Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction
akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144
Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
Cement, Telecommunication, Toll Road,
arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392
Oil and Gas

Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387

Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339

Nadya Swastika Research Associate nadya.swastika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380

Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129

Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399

Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395

Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325

Equity Sales Team

Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150

Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146

Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173

Online Trading Sales Team

Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372

Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371

Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389

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