January 2018
Index
05 The polls
Macro Research • 2
1. Rules of the game and electoral
timeline
Rules of the Game
First round will be on October 7. A candidate wins if he/she has more than 50% of valid
votes (total, excluding blank and null).
Otherwise, the two best voted will go to a run-off on October 28. The most voted wins.
Voting is optional for illiterate citizens, and for those 16, 17 and 70+ years old.
Paid advertisement is forbidden. All candidates will have a specified time on publicly
sponsored TV and radio electoral programs. Distribution of time between them will be
proportional to the size of each candidate’s supporting coalition.
Candidates may resign and be replaced during the campaign – up to 60 days before
the first round.
Macro Research • 4
TV and Radio Electoral Programs
As elected Share in
Parties * %
in 2014 Minutes
TOTAL 513 100% 22.5
PT 69 13% 3.0
The first round TV and Radio programs will run from MDB
PSDB
65
54
13%
11%
2.9
2.4
August 31 to October 4 in 2 formats: PP 38 7% 1.7
PSD 36 7% 1.6
• A 25-min program aired three times a week, twice per day. PR 34 7% 1.5
PSB 34 7% 1.5
• Smaller daily insertions distributed throughout the PTB 25 5% 1.1
programming. DEM 21 4% 0.9
PRB 21 4% 0.9
o 10% of the time will be equally divided among PDT 20 4% 0.9
candidates and 90% allotted proportionally to the SD 15 3% 0.7
candidate’s coalition in the Lower House. PSC 13 3% 0.6
PROS 11 2% 0.5
PPS 10 2% 0.4
PCdoB 10 2% 0.4
In an eventual 2nd round, the time would be equally PV 8 2% 0.4
distributed between the two candidates. PHS 5 1% 0.2
PSOL 5 1% 0.2
• Each presidential candidate will have 5 minutes in a 10- PODEMOS 4 1% 0.2
minute program ran daily, twice a day PATRIOTAS 2 0% 0.1
PTdoB 1 0% 0.0
PSL 1 0% 0.0
REDE 0 0% 0.0
Others 11 2% 0.5
Source: Law 9.504 / 1997 * Highlighted in gray : Political parties containing the
main potential candidates for the presidential race.
Macro Research • 5
The political reform
Chair distribution depends on Chair distribution depends on the parties Chair distribution depends on the votes of a single
Coalitions
the parties coalitions votes coalitions votes party
Private by individuals
Private by individuals
Public with resources foreseen in the budget Private by individuals
(Private by companies were
Campaign funding (30% of politicians amendments or BRL 1.4 Public with resources foreseen in the budget
prohibited by the Supreme
bln in 2018) Spending ceiling for campaigns
Court in 2015)
Spending ceiling for campaigns
Electoral system Proportional with open list No changes were approved No changes were approved
Macro Research • 6
Electoral Timeline
August 16 October 28
• Campaign begins. • Second Round of
the Elections.
August 31
• TV & radio
campaign begins.
Macro Research • 7
2. Who is the Brazilian voter?
Brazilian voter profile
Age % of Total Occupation % of Total
16-24 years old 22 Economic Active Population 72
25-34 years old 23 Non - Economic Active Population 28
35-44 years old 19
45-59 years old 22 Education % of Total
60 years old or more 15 Basic 33
High School 45
Region % of Total University Degree 21
Southeast 43
South 15 Average Income % of Total
Northeast 27 up to 2 minimum wages 43
Center West 8 2 - 5 minimum wages 39
North 8 5 - 10 minimum wages 11
10 or more minimum wages 4
Municipality Geography % of Total
Capital 43 Average Voter (% Total)
Countryside 57
11 4
Gender % of Total
Male 48
Female 52
82
Municipality Size % of Total
up to 50k inhabitants 30
50 - 200k inhabitants 22
200 - 500k inhabitants 16
up to 5 minimum wages 5 - 10 minimum wages
More than 500k inhabitants 33
10 or more minimum wages
Source: Datafolha 27-28 September
Macro Research • 9
How Brazilians think about economics , behavior and the country?
up to 2 minimum wages 80 52 51 76
2 - 5 minimum wages 77 63 55 77
5 - 10 minimum wages 68 65 54 71
10 or more minimum wages 63 74 46 67
Total 77 58 53 76
Macro Research • 10
The Brazilian territory
Roraima
Amapá
Amazonas Rio
Pará
Maranhão Grande
Ceará
do Norte
Paraíba
Piauí
Pernanbuco
Acre Alagoas
Tocantins
Rondônia Sergipe
Bahia
Mato Grosso
Federal
District
Goiás
Regions
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso Espírito Santo
North do Sul
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Northeast
Paraná
Midwest
Santa Catarina
Macro Research • 11
Distribution of Voters
% of the
Number of voters State Voters
population
São Paulo 32,547,128 22.3%
Minas Gerais 15,591,702 10.7%
Rio de Janeiro 12,297,017 8.4%
Bahia 10,560,647 7.2%
Rio Grande do Sul 8,331,954 5.7%
Paraná 7,952,079 5.4%
Pernambuco 6,525,709 4.5%
Ceará 6,342,906 4.3%
Pará 5,506,454 3.8%
Santa Catarina 5,002,468 3.4%
Maranhão 4,591,041 3.1%
Goiás 4,494,860 3.1%
Paraíba 2,895,551 2.0%
Espírito Santo 2,703,862 1.9%
Rio Grande do Norte 2,403,737 1.6%
Piauí 2,348,498 1.6%
Amazonas 2,336,124 1.6%
Mato Grosso 2,248,286 1.5%
20 to 35 million Alagoas 2,124,080 1.5%
Federal District 1,997,148 1.4%
15 to 20 million
Mato Grosso do Sul 1,858,090 1.3%
10 to 15 million Sergipe 1,530,167 1.0%
5 to 10 million Rondônia 1,149,738 0.8%
Tocantins 1,000,299 0.7%
Less than 5 million
Acre 535,660 0.4%
Amapá 485,746 0.3%
Abroad 444,790 0.3%
Roraima 325,085 0.2%
Source: TSE – Superior Electoral Court
Brazil 145,686,036 100%
Macro Research • 12
Income and Job Creation by State
Macro Research • 13
3. The previous election
2014 election: 2nd round result
Roraima
Amapá
51.6%
48.4% Rio
Amazonas Pará
Maranhão Ceará Grande
do Norte
Paraíba
Piauí
Pernanbuco
Acre Alagoas
Tocantins
Rondônia Sergipe
Bahia
Mato Grosso
Federal
District
Goiás
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso Espírito Santo
do Sul
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Paraná
Dilma Rousseff Aécio Neves
Santa Catarina
Rio Grande
do Sul
Aécio Neves
Dilma Rousseff
Macro Research • 15
2014 Elected Lower House: PMDB and PT hold the most seats
Lower House Members
PMDB 61
PT 57
PP 45
PSDB 45
PSD 39
PR 38
PSB 36
DEM 29
PRB 22
PDT 21
PODE 17
PTB 16
SD 14
PCdoB 12
PSC 10
PPS 9
PHS 7
REDE 4
Others 31
Macro Research • 16
Senate: 54 out of 81 seats (2/3) will be renewed
PMDB, PSDB and PT are the parties with the most senate seats in play. In relative terms, PT will have
78% of its senators ending their terms in 2018.
Senate members
PMDB 7 16
PSDB 3 8
PT 2 7
PP 1 6
PSB 1 4
PSD 3 1
DEM 3 1
PR 1 3
PODE 2 1
PTB 1 1
PDT 1 1
PCdoB 1
Rede 1
PPS 1
PRB 1
PTC 01
PSC 1
No party
No party 1
0 5 10 15 20 25
Source: Senate Ending term in 2022 Ending term in 2018
Macro Research • 17
2014 elected governors
2014 distribution
RR AP
Elected governors – distribution by party
10
AM PA MA CE RN 9
PI PB
AC PE 8
TO AL
RO SE 7
MT BA
DF 6
GO 5
MG
MS 4
SP 3
PR 2
SC 1
RS 0
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
PMDB PSDB PT PSB PDT PSD Outros
Others
Macro Research • 18
2016 municipal elections
Municipal elections
Macro Research • 19
4. Who are the possible candidates?
Main (Possible) Candidates
Macro Research • 21
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) – Worker’s Party (PT)
Summary
Former trade unionist and metalworker, Lula co-founded the Worker’s Party (PT), and ran for president three times before
achieving victory in 2002. Lula then served twice as the nation’s president until 2010, by when his government achieved a
record high approval rate of 80%. Since then, Lula has remained a political leader, but has not held positions in the
government or Congress.
Political Parties
PT (Worker’s Party) – A member since its foundation
in 1980
Macro Research • 22
Who votes for Lula?
Macro Research • 23
Fernando Haddad – Worker’s Party (PT)
Summary
Fernando Haddad is a Brazilian academic and politician. Having started his career as a Social Science university
professor, he became chief of staff to the Finance Secretary of the city of São Paulo, and then special advisor to the
Ministry of Planning. Haddad was Minister of Education for 7 years during Lula and Dilma’s governments, and mayor of
São Paulo from 2013 to 2016.
Academic Background
University of São Paulo – Economics, Master
University of São Paulo – Philosophy, Doctorate
University of São Paulo – Law
Political parties
PT (1983 – Present)
Macro Research • 24
Who votes for Haddad?
Macro Research • 25
Geraldo Alckmin – Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB)
Summary
In 2001, São Paulo Governor Mario Covas passed away and was replaced by then Vice-governor Geraldo Alckmin.
Since then, Alckmin has been elected thrice for Governor position (intermittently), a position he still holds today.
Alckmin started his career in the PMDB Party (previously MDB), and was a founder of the PSDB party. In 2006, he lost
the presidential elections to Lula, having obtained 39% of valid votes.
Academic Background
Medicine, Taubaté University
Political parties
MDB (1972-1979)
PMDB (1979 – 1988)
PSDB (1988 – Present)
Macro Research • 26
Who votes for Geraldo Alckmin?
Macro Research • 27
João Dória – Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB)
Summary
João Dória is a Brazilian politician, businessman and journalist. He headed the federal tourism agency Embratur from
1986 to 1988 during the presidency of José Sarney. In 1992, he founded Grupo Dória, comprised of six companies,
including the Group of Business Leaders (LIDE), which aims to promote and encourage business relationships. For
many years, Dória hosted a TV program focused on business. He is the current Mayor of São Paulo and was the first in
24 years to assume the office after being elected in the first round.
Academic Background
Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation - Social Communication
Political parties
PSDB (2011 – Present)
Macro Research • 28
Who votes for João Dória?
Macro Research • 29
Jair Bolsonaro – Social Liberal Party (PSL)
Summary
Jair Bolsonaro is a former military officer who has been in politics since 1989. He served the army for 11 years and has
the army rank of Captain. He has been elected a federal lawmaker by Rio de Janeiro State seven times and was the
congressman who gained the most votes in the general elections of the state of Rio de Janeiro in 2014.
Political parties
PDC (1989 – 1993)
PP (1993)
PPR (1993 – 1995)
PPB (1995 – 2003)
PTB 2003 – 2005)
PFL (2005)
PP (2005 – 2016)
PSC (2016 – 2018)
PSL (2018 – Present)
Macro Research • 30
Who votes for Bolsonaro?
Macro Research • 31
Ciro Gomes – Democratic Labor Party (PDT)
Summary
At age 32, Ciro Gomes became the mayor of Fortaleza, a city in the northeastern state of Ceará, and subsequently
became the governor of that state. Gomes briefly took over the Ministry of Finance under the Itamar Franco administration
in 1994, and ran for president twice (1998 - 3rd place, 2002 - 4th place). Under Lula’s government, Gomes was Minister of
National Integration. He is currently a member of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT).
Academic Background
Ceará Federal University - Law
Political parties
PDS (1980 – 1983)
PMDB (1983 – 1988)
PSDB (1988 – 1996)
PPS (1996 – 2005)
PSB (2005 – 2013)
PROS (2013 – 2015)
PDT (2015 – Present)
Macro Research • 32
Who votes for Ciro Gomes?
Macro Research • 33
Marina Silva – REDE (Sustainability Network)
Summary
Born in the northern state of Acre, Marina Silva was a member of PT for 23 years, having become Minister of the
Environment during President Lula’s administration. She left the government in 2008, joined the Green Party (PV), and ran
for president in 2010, ending up in the third place, with 19% of valid votes. In 2013, Marina joined the PSB (Brazilian
Socialist Party), becoming vice-presidential candidate to Eduardo Campos. After Campos’ death in an airplane accident,
she was appointed by the PSB to run for president in 2014 and placed third, receiving 21% of votes. Marina has since
been affiliated with Rede Sustentabilidade, a party that she helped found.
Political Background
City councilor in Rio Branco, Acre (1989-1990)
State lawmaker in Acre (1991-1994)
Senator by Acre (1995-2002, 2003-2011)
Minister of Environment (2003-2008) – Lula’s Administration
Presidential candidate – 2010 & 2014 elections
Academic Background
B.A. in History at Federal University of Acre
Specialization in Psychoanalytical theory at the University of Brasilia
Political parties
PT – Workers Party (1986-2009)
PV – Green Party (2009-2011)
PSB – (2013-2015)
Sustainability Network – (2015 – Present)
Macro Research • 34
Who votes for Marina Silva?
Macro Research • 35
João Dionisio – New Party (NOVO)
Summary
Mr. João Dionisio Filgueira Barreto Amoêdo is on the Board of Directors at João Fortes Engenharia SA and also served
on the board at Banco Itaú BBA SA. In 2011, Mr. Amoêdo co-founded New Party and became its president from 2011 to
2017.
Academic Background
PUC Rio - Business Management
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro - Civil Engineering
Political parties
NOVO (2011 – Present)
Macro Research • 36
Henrique Meirelles – Social Democratic Party (PSD)
Summary
Henrique Meirelles is currently Brazil's Finance Minister. He has studied Civil Engineering at the Polytechnic School of
USP in São Paulo, and has an MBA in Business Administration from the Coppead Institute of the Federal University of
Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). He was president of the Brazilian Central Bank from January 2003 to November 2010. Prior to
taking over the Central Bank, Meirelles was the global president of BankBoston. He has also joined the board of Harvard
Kennedy School of Government and the Sloan School of Management at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). In
2002, he was elected a federal deputy, a position which he gave up in order to head the Central Bank.
Academic Background
B. A. in Civil Engineering at USP
MBA in Business Administration at Coppead Institute (UFRJ)
Advanced Management Program (AMP) at Harvard Business School
Political parties
PSDB (2002-2003)
Independent (2003-2011)
PSD (2011-present)
Macro Research • 37
Rodrigo Maia – Democrats (DEM)
Summary
Rodrigo Maia is a Brazilian politician who serves as the Speaker of the Lower House of Brazil since July 2016. He is
currently first in the line of succession to the presidency after former vice president Michel Temer became president on
August 31 2016. In 1997, Maia was named Secretary of Government of the City of Rio de Janeiro and in 1998 he was
elected to the Lower House, remaining there until today.
Academic Background
University of Candido Mendes, Economics (not completed).
Macro Research • 38
Luciano Huck – no party
Summary
Luciano Huck is a TV host celebrity on Brazilian network Rede Globo, with an audience of about 18 million people per
episode. In addition to his career in the entertainment industry, Huck founded Joá Investments, an investment fund
focused on technology and lifestyle start-up companies.
Academic Background
University of São Paulo, Law
Macro Research • 39
Joaquim Barbosa – no party
Summary
Joaquim Barbosa is a former Justice of the Supreme Federal Court in Brazil. He served as the president of the court
(Chief Justice) between 2012 and 2014.
Academic Background
University of Brasilia , Law (1979)
Université de Paris II, Law – Master (1990)
Université de Paris II, Law – Doctorate (1993)
Macro Research • 40
5. The polls
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01/02
03/02
Macro Research •
04/02
05/02
05/02
06/02
06/02
07/02
Rejection rates
07/02
2002
07/02
Ciro Gomes
08/02
08/02
08/02
08/02
09/02
09/02
10/02
10/02
01/06
02/06
Alckmin
03/06
05/06
06/06
07/06
2006
07/06
08/06
Marina
05/09
09/09
12/09
03/10
04/10
Rejection rates
06/10
2010
07/10
08/10
08/10
Dória 09/10
09/10
10/10
10/13
04/14
06/14
07/14
Lula
07/14
08/14
09/14
2014
09/14
09/14
09/14
10/14
10/14
10/14
02/16
04/16
Bolsonaro
12/16
2018
06/17
Datafolha, 2,771 interviewees, June 21-23, 2% margin of error
42
Rejection rates – a closer look – Datafolha Poll
Datafolha: “In which of these candidates... you wouldn’t vote in any way in the first round of the 2018
presidential elections?”
50
40 39
30
28
24
22
20
10
23-Jun-17
28-Sep-17
30-Nov-17
27-Apr-17
18-Mar-16
15-Jul-16
25-Feb-16
8-Dec-16
8-Apr-16
Geraldo Alckmin Lula Marina Silva Jair Bolsonaro Ciro Gomes João Dória
Macro Research • 43
Rejection rates – a closer look – Ibope Poll
Ibope: “ For each of these possible presidential candidates I would like you to say which of these
sentences best describe your opinion on he/her: (...) (1) I’d definetely vote for him , (2) I could vote for
him , (3) I’d not vote for him at all, (4) I don’t know he/she enough to say
60
54
50 51
50
49
42
40
36
30
20
25/abr/16
27/abr/17
22/fev/16
Geraldo Alckmin Lula Marina Silva Jair Bolsonaro Ciro Gomes João Doria
Source: Ibope
Macro Research • 44
Voting intentions x rejection
Dilma 2014
50%
Aécio 2014 Serra 2010
Dória 2017
40% Bolsonaro 2017
Alckmin 2006 Alckmin 2017
Serra 2002
30% Lula 1998
Lula 1994
20%
10%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Data for 2017 potential candidates - September’s Datafolha poll and excludes blank,nulls and undecideds
Source: Ibope, Datafolha , TSE
Macro Research • 45
5.1 Datafolha poll tracker
Overview
Lula remains on top, Bolsonaro on the rise as Marina falls
40
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin Scenario without Lula
25
35
34
35 21
22
30 30 20
30 20
17
26
16
24
25 23 23 23 23
22 22 15 16
20
20 18
17 17 17 17
16 16
15 12
14 14 10
15 13
12 10
11 9 9
9 9
10 8 8 8 8 8
7 5
6 6 6
5 3 3
8
5 7 7 2
6 6 6 6 6
5
4
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
17-Dec-15
25-Feb-16
18-Mar-16
08-Apr-16
15-Jul-16
08-Dec-16
27-Apr-17
23-Jun-17
28-Sep-17
30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 48
The last poll: Datafolha (Nov 29-30)
Scenario 1 – 1st Round Scenario 2 – 1st Round
With Geraldo Alckmin, without Doria Without Lula, without Doria
Lula 34%
Marina Silva 16%
Jair Bolsonaro 17%
Jair Bolsonaro 21%
Marina Silva 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 6%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Fernando Haddad 3%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
Henrique Meirelles 0%
Blank/Null 12%
Blank/Null 25%
Undicided 2% Undicided 3%
João Dória 6%
Fernando Haddad 3%
Henrique Meirelles 0%
Blank/Null 27%
Undicided 3%
64
62
60
52
50 48 48
46
40
30
19 18 19
20
15 16
14 15
17
11
9 8 9
10 7
6
3 3
1 1 1 1 1
0 1
1
15-Jul-16 8-Dec-16 27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Lula Marina Silva Bolsonaro Ciro Gomes João Dória Don't know Blank / Null Geraldo Alckmin
Macro Research • 50
Rejection Rates – First Round
Rejection rates
Lula 39%
Macro Research • 52
Rejection rates – Time Series
50
40 39
30
28
24
22
20
10
23-Jun-17
28-Sep-17
30-Nov-17
27-Apr-17
18-Mar-16
15-Jul-16
25-Feb-16
8-Dec-16
8-Apr-16
Geraldo Alckmin Lula Marina Silva Jair Bolsonaro Ciro Gomes João Dória
Macro Research • 53
Voting Intentions by region
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by region
30
Southeast - 43% of total Northeast - 27% of total
60 57
27
53
25 50
25 50 47
20 20 20 20
20 40
17
16
16
15 14 30
15
10
12
10 20
10 11 14
13
6 6 6 11
9 9 10
4 10 8
5 6 6
6 5
5
0 0 2 2
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 1
30-Nov-17
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 55
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by region
Macro Research • 56
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by region
North - 7% of total
40 38 38
36
35
35
30
25 23
20
20 18
17
16
14
15
12
10
10
6
5 5
5 7
3
5 5 5
0
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 57
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by region
20 30
29
19 19 28
17 25
15 15
14
20
13
18
16
10 10 15 15
13
8
11
10
5 7
4 4
3 5 5
4
3
2 2
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 58
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by region
22 27
25 25
20 20
18 18 22
17
20 20
15 18
17
15
13
10 10
10 10
7 8
7
5 6
4 4 5
3
3
2 2 2
1 1
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 59
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by region
North - 7% of total
35
33
30
27
25 25
24
21
20
15
14
10 10
8 8 8
7
5
2
1 1
0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 60
Voting Intentions by income
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by income
45
45 28 28
40 43 25
22
39 39 24 24 21
35 20
20
18
30
18
25 15 16
20
16 16
14 10 11
15 8 8 8
12 10
10 11 7
9
10 5 5
7 7
7 5 6
6 95
5
6
5
4
0 3
0
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 62
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by income
35 From 5 - 10 minimum wages - 11% of total 35 More than 10 minimum wages - 4% of total
30 29 29
28 30
26 27
25
25 25
22
21
19 20
20 18 18 20 19
17
15
15 15 14 14
13
11 11 11
10 12 10
10 9 10
8 8 8 10 9
7 7
9
8 8 8
5 7 7
5
5 5
0 0
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 63
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by income
26
28 25
25 26 25
20
20 20
17 20
19
15 16 15 16
12
11 14 11
10 10
10 9 10
10
9 9 9 9
5 5 4 4
3
2 2
1
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 64
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by income
From 5 – 10 minimum wages (11% of total) More than 10 minimum wages (4% of total)
35 35
30 30 29
31
30 27
25 25
24 21
20 20
16
15 15
14
15 13 15
11 13
13 13
10 8 10 11
11
7 9
6
5 7 5 7
6
5 5
4
3
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 65
Voting Intentions by municipality size
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by municipality size
45
35
45 36 36
40
41
39
30
31
35
25
30
25 20 18
17 17
20
16 15 16 13
15
15 12 12 10
10 8
9 7
10 7
8 6
5 5
5
5 5
5 4
4 3
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 67
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by municipality size
From 200- 500k inhabitants (16% of total) More than 500k inhabitants (33% of total)
35 35
30
31
30 30
27
27 25
25 25
22 20
21
20 20 18
17
18 18
15
16
15 15
13 11
12 10
11
10 10
7 7 8
7
6 6 7
5 5 6
3 4
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 68
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by municipality size
26 26
25 25 24
23
22
20 19 20 19
17
16
15 15 15
15 15
11
10 10 10
10 10
8
10 10 10
9
8
5 5
3
2 2 2 2
1
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 69
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by municipality size
From 200- 500k inhabitants (16% of total) More than 500k inhabitants (33% of total)
25 25
22 22
21
23
20 22
20 19 20 21
19
18
15 14 16
15
13
12
11
12 10 9
10
9 9
9 9 8
5 4 4
5 3
3 3
2
0
0 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 70
Voting Intention by education level
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by education level
50 31
30
50 29
46 28
25
39
40 38 22
21 21
20
17
30
15
20
14 15 10
7
11 6 6
10
9 9 5
10
6 6
5 5 5
6 4 4
6
7
6 6
5 4
0 0
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 72
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by education level
23
22
21 21
20 20
18 18 18
15 15
13
12
11
10
9
7 7 7 7
6
5
0
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 73
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by education level
26 26 26
25 25 25
24
22 22
20 20
17
15 15 15
14
13
12
11
10 10 10 10
9 9 9
8 8
7
5 5
3 3
2 2 2 2
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 74
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by education level
25 25 25
20 20
18
15 15
13
12
10 10
8
7 7
5 5
4 4
0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Macro Research • 75
Voting Intentions – Second Round
Datafolha second-round voting intention polls (November 29-30)
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin – 2nd Round Scenario with Lula and Bolsonaro – 2nd Round
Jair
Geraldo 33%
30% Bolsonaro
Alckmin
Undecided or
16%
Undecided or Blank/Null
18%
Blank/Null
Jair
32%
Bolsonaro
Undecided or
22%
Blank/Null
Macro Research • 77
Second-round voting intention polls
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin – 2nd Round Scenario with Lula and Bolsonaro – 2nd Round
55 52 55
50 51
50 46 45 47
45
43 45
45
38 38 40
40 36
34
35 32 32 35 32 33 33
29 30
30 30
25 25
15-Jul-16 8-Dec-16 27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Geraldo Alckmin Lula Jair Bolsonaro Lula
41
36
32
31 29
27
26
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Jair Bolsonaro Marina Silva
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