This except is from Stratas Advisors’ Africa and Global Refining & Products services. Africa represents 4.2% of global petroleum product demand. Light products (gasoline, naphtha, jet fuel, diesel and other middle distillates) account for 69.4% of the region’s refined product demand. Gasoline and middle distillate make up 60% of refined product demand. Middle distillate accounts for the largest share (36%) of the region’s product mix. About 65% of middle distillate is on-road diesel (23.4% of total product demand, which is close to gasoline’s share). The volume ratio of gasoline and diesel in transportation is 50.3% for gasoline vs. 49.7% for diesel, which is the closest split observed for any region. Although both transportation fuels will experience strong demand growth, on-road diesel growth is projected to outpace gasoline growth. Residual fuel consumption makes up 14.8% of total refined product demand. It is produced and consumed mainly by North African countries. Africa endured the global recession relatively well, and many African economies did not experience severe impacts in terms of GDP and energy demand growth. On the heels of the recession, however, the social unrest in North Africa in early 2011 — continuing in one form or another until early 2012 — proved to have a more profound effect on refined product demand. As a consequence of limited economic progress resulting from the volatile political situation, especially in the first half of 2011, the data for North Africa showed a decline of 5.2% in refined product demand for 2011. This decline negatively affected demand development for the entire region: A decline of 1.4% was observed for Africa in 2011. Nevertheless, the region’s demand growth has recovered very quickly, and a growth rate of 6.1% was reported for 2012. However, additional violence and protests in North Africa in 2013 led to stagnating demand. It was not before 2014 that demand started to grow again, this time by 2.8%, which was followed by 1.8% in 2015. In summary, average annual African growth in refined product demand from the end of 2009 through to 2015 reached only 1.9%. Demand is projected to grow 2.5% annually from 2015 to 2020, and the rate will increase to 2.8% annually from 2020 to 2035 (averaging 2.75% growth from 2015 to 2035). Total refined product demand will reach 6.77 million b/d in 2035. Gasoline and on-road diesel together will continue to be the major driver of demand, increasing 3.6% annually from 2015 to 2035. The strong growth in light-product demand will be offset by declining demand for residual fuel. You May Also Like... North American Refining & Products Global Syngas