all but one of the 34 studies that found a positive correlation were independently sponsored.
SSBs are energy dense and do not provide any nutritional value. Furthermore, liquid
carbohydrates, especially in SSBs, are easily digested, less satiating, and tend to increase total
caloric intake (Pan & Hu, 2011). Among adults, SSB consumption is associated with an
increased risk of weight gain, overweight and obesity, CVD, T2DM, and dental erosion
(Friedman & Brownell, 2012). A twenty-year prospective study by Mozaffarian, Hao, Rimm,
Willett, and Hu (2011) found that individual who consumed an additional 12 oz. serving of soda
per day typically experienced a one pound weight gain per year. Malik, and Hu (2012) found
that individuals who consumed one or two SSBs per day had a 26% increased risk of developing
T2DM and a 20% increased risk of developing metabolic syndrome than those who consumed
less than one SSB per month. Among children and adolescents, SSB consumption is also
associated with an increased risk of overweight and obesity during childhood and in adulthood,
CVD during adolescence, hypertension, dental carries, and micronutrient deficiencies (Friedman
& Brownell, 2012). Lastly, consumption of SSBs is often greatest among children and
adolescents and among individuals with the highest obesity and T2DM risk (Friedman &
Brownell, 2012).
Policy Change Goal
A statewide SSB excise tax would help to combat the obesity epidemic in two ways.
First, excise taxes generate revenue that can be used to fund public health programs and
campaigns to treat and prevent obesity. Second, excise taxes on products increase the display
price of that product, which is a purchasing disincentive that will decrease demand in those with
price elasticity (Wilde, 2013b). Implementing an SSB tax can also communicate to the public
that policymakers are concerned about the health and well-being of their constituents. In
October 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended a 20% SSB tax as a public
health policy to combat obesity and T2DM, and current evidence suggests that a 10 to 20% tax
on unhealthy foods and beverages could produce a meaningful change in consumption patterns
and the prevalence and cost of chronic diseases, with greater impacts being associated with
higher taxes (Thow, Downs, & Jan, 2014; WHO, 2016). A 10% tax is roughly equivalent to a
one cent per ounce excise tax, if the tax is completely passed on to the consumer (Friedman &
Brownell, 2012). Therefore, it is recommended that Maryland implement an inflation-adjusted
two cents per ounce excise tax on all SSBs.
Literature Review
Types of SSB Taxation
There are two main types of taxes that could be imposed on SSBs: a flat sales tax
(valoric) or an excise tax. Valoric taxes increase with inflation, but the tax is not denoted on the
shelf price and consequently might not deter purchase or it might induce consumers to purchase
larger containers to reduce the cost per ounce (Freidman & Brownell, 2012). Excise taxes are
based on quantity, not price, and are imposed on manufacturers, which usually pass the tax onto
consumer, so the tax is reflected on the shelf price; however, excise taxes, unless indexed to
inflation, will not increase with inflation and therefore the economic impact will lessen over time
(Freidman & Brownell, 2012). Because SSB excise taxes are based on volume or sugar content,
they do not tend to encourage consumers to purchase larger containers.
MARYLAND SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX 5
participants altered their drinking habits by consuming SSB less often or by choosing smaller
portions, and only 2% of Berkeley participants purchased SSB in other jurisdictions as a direct
result of the tax.
Slightly longer term results are available by examining the effect of a country-wide SSB
tax in Mexico, which was implemented in January 2014. Colchero, Guerrero-Lopez, Molina,
and Rivera (2016) investigated the effect of a one peso (~ 5.5 U.S. cents) per liter excise tax on
SSB on the sales of SSB and plain water using the Monthly Surveys of the Manufacturing
Industry sales data. Using unadjusted, raw sales data, they found that the sales of SSB and plain
water increased during the two years after the tax was implemented compared to five years of
sales data preceding the implementation of the SSB excise tax (Colchero et al., 2016). However,
after adjusting for the global indicator of economic activity, a short-term measure of economic
trends, Colchero et al. (2016) found a 7.3% decrease in per capita sales of SSBs and a 5.2%
increase in per capita sales of water for two years after the SSB excise tax implementation. This
data is consistent to their prior findings – a 6% decrease in SSB sales and a 4% increase in
untaxed beverages one year post tax –in which they surveyed a panel of urban households about
their beverage purchases (Colchero et al., 2016). The most significant limitation of this study
was the inability to account for potential confounding factors that could influence beverage sales,
such as temperature, increased SSB advertisements and promotions, and increased public health
campaigns and nutrition education to promote awareness about the negative health effects
associated with SSB (Colchero et al., 2016).
Projected Long-Term Effects of SSB Taxation
Since SSB taxation is relatively new, most research has focused on investigating the
effects of the tax on SSB consumption; therefore long-term effects of SSB taxation are merely
projections based on modeling programs. Using data from the 1998-2007 Nielsen Homescan
panels and the 2003-06 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), Smith,
Lin, and Lee (2010) estimate that a 20% tax-induced price increase on SSBs would result in 37
and 43 fewer calories per day among adults and children, respectively, which would result in a
3.8 pound weight loss among adults and a 4.5 pound weight loss among children the following
year. Smith et al. (2010b) further estimated that a 20% SSB tax could reduce the prevalence of
overweight and obesity by 3.0 to 4.5% among adults and would reduce the prevalence of at-risk
of overweight and overweight children by 2.9 and 5.3%, respectively. However, this study did
not account for food and beverage substitutions, which could offset the estimated daily energy
intake reduction and therefore could have resulted in an overestimated impact on obesity rates.
To account for the effect of dietary substitutions, Finkelstein et al. (2013) used grocery purchase
data from the 2006 Nielsen Homescan panel and two models to predict the effects of a 20% tax
on body weight. Based on 19 potential food and beverage substitution categories, Finkelstein et
al. (2013), estimate that a 20% SSB tax would decrease energy intake by 24.3 calories per day
and would result in an average 1.6 pound weight loss one year post tax and a 2.9 pound weight
loss 10 years post tax.
Veerman, Sacks, Antonopoulos, and Martin (2016) conducted a study to estimate the
effect of a 20% valoric tax on SSB consumption, chronic disease incidence and prevalence,
mortality, and healthcare costs in Australia using lifetable-based epidemiological modeling.
According to the modeling program, a 20% valoric tax would result in a 12.6% decrease in SSB
consumption; a small BMI reduction; a 1.2 and 2.7% decrease in obesity among women and
men, respectively; an annual diabetes incidence decrease of 800; 4,400 fewer heart disease cases,
MARYLAND SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX 7
1,100 fewer stroke cases, and 1,606 fewer deaths by year 25; AUD400 million annual revenue;
and reduced annual healthcare spending during the first 20 years and then AUD29 million
savings thereafter (Veerman et al., 2016).
Using a country-specific adapted version of the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model,
post-tax SSB consumption data, and national health and economic statistics, Sanchez-Romero et
al. (2016) investigated the effect of Mexico’s one peso per liter (i.e., 10%) excise tax on
morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Based on a 10% decrease in SSB consumption and an
estimated 39% of calories from SSB being replaced with other foods and beverages, Sanchez-
Romero et al. (2016) projected a 4.9% lower incidence of T2DM and $983 million (-0.8%) in
diabetes-related healthcare savings over 10 years, with the largest reductions occurring among
Mexicans adults aged 35-44 years. Sanchez-Romero et al. (2016) also projected a decreased
CVD incidence (20,400 fewer strokes and myocardial infarctions) and all-cause mortality
(18,900 fewer deaths) within 10 years. The economic advantages are likely to be more
substantial because Sanchez-Romero et al. (2016) did not account for the healthcare savings
associated with reduced CVD and all-cause mortality, nor did they account for generated revenue
or indirect healthcare savings, such as increased labor productivity.
Based on UConn Rudd Center for Food Policy & Obesity’s (n.d.) revenue calculator for
SSB taxation and a price elasticity of -1.2, it is estimated that a two cents per ounce SSB excise
tax in Maryland, could generate $3.62 million and $3.67 million in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
The Veerman et al. (2016) study estimated that the healthcare cost savings by a 20% valoric tax
would be 14 times greater than the cost of implementing and governing the tax.
Target and Allies
Target
Maryland State Senators Joanne Benson and Catherine Pugh and State Representatives
Antonio Hayes and Cheryl Glenn are more likely than the other state senators and representatives
to support a SSB excise tax in Maryland as they have all previously sponsored health and
nutrition-related bills in Maryland. In 2016, Senators Benson and Pugh sponsored Maryland
Senate Bills 333 and 602, which would limit the types of beverages that a restaurant could
include in a child’s meal and that would require that 75% of all packaged food and beverages in
vending machines on state property be healthy, respectively (LegiScan, n.d.-b; LegiScan, n.d.-c).
Unfortunately, both bills died in the Senate Finance Committee, but the act of supporting these
bills implies that both Senators may be receptive to this proposal. Representatives Hayes and
Glenn supported a bill (HB 1498) in 2016 that would require 75% of all packaged food and
beverages in vending machines on state property be healthy, and after that bill was withdrawn
due to an unfavorable report by Economic Matters, they reintroduced a similar bill that lowered
the percentage of required healthy food to 50% (HB 1509) this year (LegiScan, n.d.-a; LegiScan,
n.d.-b).
Allies
Recently, SSB taxation has become a popular national and global topic as a means of
combatting society’s obesity and chronic disease epidemics. As such, SSB taxation has been
proposed by numerous public health-focused organizations, which could provide resources and
support a SSB excise tax in Maryland. Public Health Advocates, a nonpartisan nonprofit
organization whose primary mission is to increase awareness about public health issues and to
MARYLAND SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX 8
advocate for policy change, created Kick the Can, a website devoted to reducing SSB
consumption (Kick the Can, n.d.). The CSPI and former New York City Mayor Michael
Bloomberg are advocates for SSB taxation. CSPI is a nonprofit consumer advocacy lobbyist
group that advocates for health, nutrition, and food safety (CSPI, n.d.). Mr. Bloomberg, who
unsuccessfully attempted to pass an SSB tax in New York, has helped fund SSB tax campaigns
in Berkeley, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Oakland, and Mexico (CSPI, 2016; Vinton, 2016).
Additionally, the American Heart Association and John and Laura Arnold provided significant
financial support to help pass SSB taxes in 2016 (CSPI, 2016). Other organizations that have
been involved in SSB taxation advocacy include Action for Healthy Food, the American Cancer
Society, the California Center for Public Health Advocacy, Change Lab Solutions, the Public
Health Law Center, and the UConn Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity (Action for
Healthy Food, 2015).
Although national organizations can provide valuable support, funding, and other
resources, it is imperative to include state-based organizations and community members. Sugar
Free Kids Maryland (n.d.-a), established in 2014, is a Maryland coalition that is trying to
improve the health of Maryland’s children by preventing the development of T2DM, CVD, and
dental carries. It is comprised of six core organizations – Horizon Foundations, MedChi, the
Maryland State Medical Society, the American Heart Association, National Association for the
Advancement of Colored People, the Maryland Association of Student Councils, and 1199SEIU
United Healthcare Workers East – 75 additional statewide or regional organizations, and 154
local organizations (Sugar Free Kids Maryland, n.d.-a). Horizon Foundations and county
residents created the Howard County Unsweetened (n.d.-a) initiative and Better Choices
Coalition of Howard County (n.d.-a) – which now includes 49 local organizations – with the sole
mission to reduce SSB consumption to improve the health of its children. Other potential allies
include Johns Hopkins University, Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, and
Maryland Public Health Association, because these organizations are all devoted to improving
public health in Maryland.
Previous Advocacy Work
In October 2016, the WHO proposed a 20% SSB tax as a public health policy to combat
obesity and T2DM (WHO, 2016). Action for Healthy Food (2015) has created a 32 page report,
A Roadmap for Successful Sugary Drink Tax Campaigns, that has reviewed, evaluated, and
compiled prior advocacy work and provides a detailed framework for successfully advocating
this issue. Berkeley, CA successfully passed a SSB excise tax, becoming the first municipality
to do so as a public health intervention, despite the soda industry and other opponents
successfully quashing similar proposals in numerous other jurisdictions. It is suspected that
Berkeley was successful when so many other municipalities were not because of Berkeley’s pro-
tax campaign, “Berkeley vs. Big Soda, that included a diverse coalition, prominently featured
community representatives, widespread messages highlighting the negative health effects
associated with SSB and the soda industry’s negative tactics, and a vast network of allies (Falbe
et al., 2016).
Although there are no organizations in Maryland that have advocated for a state SSB tax,
there are several organizations and coalitions that have advocated for other policies and
programs that would reduce SSB consumption. Sugar Free Kids Maryland (n.d.-b) has actively
supported a bill that would require warning labels on SSBs in Baltimore, MD, a bill that would
require healthier food and beverage options in vending machines located on government
MARYLAND SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX 9
property, and a bill that would require licensed childcare facilities to serve healthier beverages.
The Howard County Unsweetened initiative created a campaign in 2013 that targeted reducing
SSB consumption via social media, television and physical advertisements, and soda-swapping
events where volunteers would approach individuals in the public venues and engage in an active
conversation trying to get them to drink SSB alternatives (Aubrey, 2017). After three years, soda
and fruit drink sales decreased by 20 and 15%, respectively (Aubrey, 2017). They have also
created “Better Beverage Finder,” a tool that uses input criteria to provide a list of SSB
alternatives, with a short description, health ranking, if and how it is sweetened, and a link to
more detailed information including sugar and calorie content and locations where it can be
purchased (Howard County Unsweetened, n.d.-b). The Better Choices Coalition of Howard
County (n.d.-b) reaches out to local organizations in an effort to get those organizations to
provide better beverage choices at meetings, events, and in vending machines and has developed
a toolkit to assist individuals in advocating for better beverage options in their organizations.
Lastly, Maryland already taxes SSBs through its general sales tax. Although food
purchased for consumption in a substantial grocery store or market business are exempt from
Maryland 6% sales tax, food for immediate consumption, soda, bottled water, confectionary
items, and alcoholic beverages are not exempt (Comptroller of Maryland, n.d.).
Potential Barriers
Based on opposition to SSB taxation proposals in other jurisdictions, it is extremely
likely that this proposed policy will be vehemently opposed by the soda industry, libertarians,
anti-tax coalitions, and individuals or groups who disagree with the policy. There are three main
arguments against SSB taxation: the tax would unfairly target the poor, the government is
limiting personal choice through paternalism, and SSB are being unfairly targeted (Robert Wood
Johnson Foundation, 2012). Since 2009, the soda industry, predominantly comprised of
PepsiCo, Coca Cola, and the American Beverage Association, has spent $67 million fighting
SSB taxes and other public health measures (CSPI, 2016).
Advocacy Plan
Action plan
To lead a successful state advocacy campaign, especially regarding a controversial issue
such as an SSB tax, is to engage state residents and organizations; therefore, the first step in this
advocacy plan is reach out to potential allies by writing and sending a letter. The letter would
explain how obesity and chronic diseases are critical issues in Maryland, how these health issues
are related to SSBs, and how an SSB excise tax would help combat these issues. The letter
would also connect their mission and goals to an SSB excise tax and conclude with a plea for
their support and engagement in the campaign. A week later, I would follow-up the letter with a
phone call to each potential ally to confirm that they received my letter and to ask for their
support or at the very least a scheduled meeting to discuss an alliance.
After alliances have been formed, we would develop a campaign name and work together
to prepare an issue brief about the negative health effects associated with SSB consumption and
how a two cents per ounce SSB excise tax in Maryland could help solve health problems
affecting Maryland residents. After the issue brief has been written, I would schedule a
legislative visit with Maryland State Senators Joanne Benson and Catherine Pugh and State
Representatives Antonio Hayes and Cheryl Glenn in an attempt to gain their support in
MARYLAND SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX 10
sponsoring an SSB tax bill. I would ask to schedule the legislative visit sometime during this
summer (General Assembly of Maryland 2017 post-session), as that would be several months
before the start of the 2018 session and would allow adequate time to earn their support. At the
legislative visit, I would deliver the issue brief, provide a list of the allies supporting the issue
brief, and discuss its key talking points. Hopefully, the legislative visit would result in the
sponsorship of least one senator and one representative but, if not, I would try to persuade them
by increasing social support.
First, I would create a social media campaign using Facebook and Twitter. The
Facebook page would include a list of members and supporters, our goal, information about the
soda industry and their lobbying and advertising tactics, and information about our actions. I
would also create a Twitter account that would send daily tweets about the negative effects of
SSBs, the benefits of an SSB excise tax, and the reactions and tactics of the soda industry. I
would also create or use existing infographics and posters to increase awareness and generate
support. The infographics and posters would highlight the negative health effects of SSBs, the
benefits of a two cents per ounce SSB excise tax, and facts about the soda industry’s lobbying
and advertising tactics. An example of a poster discussing the negative health effects of SSB
consumption and the benefits of a SSB tax is included in the next section, Messages and Actions.
After contacting local businesses, organizations, schools, churches, and civic groups, I would
display the posters and infographics in permitted locations and public venues and post them on
the Facebook page.
I would schedule a march in Annapolis, outside the State Capitol, for Wednesday,
January 10, 2018, at 11:00 am, which is one hour before the Maryland General Assembly
reconvenes for the first day of the 2018 session (General Assembly of Maryland, n.d.). I would
also contact all of the allies, asking for their attendance and participation in the march and for
their help in advertising it. I would advertise the march on Facebook, Twitter, and posters
displayed throughout the state. I would also contact Maryland news stations, including WBAL-
TV 11, WJZ-13 CBS Baltimore, and ABC2 News; local radio stations, including Today’s 101-9
and 98 Rock Baltimore; and Maryland newspapers, including The Baltimore Sun and The
Capital, to publicize and cover the march. Ideally, with the help of the allied organizations, I
would send or deliver letters requesting support to other potential allies, including local, regional,
and state health, community, educational, and political organizations, school boards, parent
groups, churches, restaurants, and grocers, as all of these groups supported Berkeley’s SSB tax
campaign (Berkeley vs. Big Soda, n.d.).
Lastly, I would create a form action letter that could be emailed to Maryland state
legislators directly from our Facebook page. Since legislation must be introduced within the first
24 days of session, I would schedule an action day for Monday, January 15, 2018, in which
action request alerts and emails would be sent to all Facebook and Twitter followers and allied
organization members.
Messages and Actions
The poster shown below would be posted on the Facebook page, sent to potential allies
along with a letter requesting support, and posted in public venues and on the premises of
business and organizations that grant permission to do so.
MARYLAND SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX 11
MARYLAND SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX 12
MARYLAND SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX 13
Evaluation
The action plan will be evaluated in several ways. First, I would evaluate the efficacy of
network building and outreach by calculating the number of new advocates, partnerships, and
alliances. I would also calculate the percentage of alliances that were contacted and the number
who joined the Maryland SSB tax advocacy campaign. Next, I would evaluate the efficacy of
achieving social support and increased awareness by the number of “likes” the Facebook page
generated, the number of hits the Twitter account received, and the number of demonstrators
who attended the march in front of the General Assembly in Annapolis. Lastly, I would
determine the efficacy of the overall campaign by the percentage of the targets – Maryland State
Senators Joanne Benson and Catherine Pugh and State Representatives Antonio Hayes and
Cheryl Glenn – who agree to sponsor the bill and whether or not the bill is passed.
The ultimate goal of an SSB tax is to decrease consumption of SSBs and improve health
outcomes. The effect of the tax on SSB consumption could be evaluated by comparing the sales
of SSBs in Maryland two years pre- and post-tax. It could also be evaluated by having a
randomized sample of Maryland residents complete a beverage-focused food frequency
questionnaire at the start of the campaign and one year after the tax became effective. The effect
of the tax on health outcomes could be measured by comparing the prevalence and incidence
rates of obesity, T2DM and CVD among Maryland residents before the tax was implemented
and 10 years after implementation, using the annual Vital Statistics Report published by
Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.
MARYLAND SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGE TAX 14
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