Arab Spring

The reasons for Arab Spring

Continuous/ Build up of oppression, bad socio economic situation. Lack of

development (sustainable and general).

The use of social media is a catalyst, facilitator.

Lack of participation, injustice, democracy, human rights

Foreign Planning/ Intervention.

Educated people left out. These people got trained by IGOs and they acquire the
skills to use the social media.

With all the reasons above, we should ask WHY NOW?

The reaction of the western states was not planned and they were confused. The
French defence minister has to resign because it has come to the media that she
was calling bin Alli in Tunisia to ask if he needs any support to stay in control.
Thus, we can conclude that social media was a facilitator in that case. Also, we
had a suitable international environment.

People had a margin of patience and support. So, there was a boiling point
somewhere.

We can definitely speak about the Domino Effect. People never thought that
they can change the dictators. Other states saw the success of the revolt in
Tunisia. “They did it, so can we.”

Before 2010, two major events gave the Arab population an indication that they
can change the dictators:
- 2008 election of the Ahmadi Najat : It was called the Green
revolution – first transparent election. , government intervention in
the prior elections.
- 2005, Lebanese Cedar Revolution.

Islamists were the most organised groups. Islamists were oppressed, the more
oppressed, the more they got support. In terms of international environment,
since 2001 we started to see the rise of AKP in Turkey. Turkey was presenting
itself as an Islamic regime, so they were representing themselves as an
alternatives – an Islamic regime that can guarantee mutual interest with the
West. So, the US was convinced that the regime has changed in the ME, we can
always gain indirect or direct control in the region or keeping the the mutual
interest. That’s why when Mursi won and Al nahda won in Tunisia, they got
full support in the US. So, Islamism was a viable alternative. Success?
Definite failure during the Arab Spring.

Turkey and Qatar failed to show Islamism as a modern alternative.

Tensions between Qatar and GCC- withdrew GCC states ambassador from
Qatar.

Why some states failed to change the regime like Syria?

- Ethnic and religious division
- Regional and International Support
- Reaction of the army: the army does not stand independently from
the leader or the regime like in Syria and Libya.
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