Anda di halaman 1dari 13

Tahun Periode X_t M_t X_t/M_t Trend Siklus Indeks Musiman I_t

1 894
2 667
3 858
4 865
5 989
6 1093
1971
7 1191 1024.08 116.30 1025.735 0.99839 121.9136760915 1.219137
8 1203 1027.17 117.12 1031.03 0.996253 117.070996339 1.17071
9 1159 1044.42 110.97 1036.326 1.007807 109.7551525181 1.097552
10 1046 1051.00 99.52 1041.621 1.009004 113.1562981451 1.131563
11 1203 1058.25 113.68 1046.916 1.010826 107.7601551147 1.077602
12 1121 1058.92 105.86 1052.211 1.006373 106.3904213357 1.063904
13 931 1066.00 87.34 1057.507 1.008032 82.1616704907 0.821617
14 874 1083.75 80.65 1062.802 1.01971 74.9569616649 0.74957
15 937 1094.08 85.64 1068.097 1.02433 80.4095827694 0.804096
16 952 1101.42 86.43 1073.392 1.026108 86.5634084849 0.865634
17 997 1122.75 88.80 1078.687 1.040848 93.3368799844 0.933369
18 1178 1122.92 104.91 1083.983 1.035917 106.5247970618 1.065248
1972
19 1404 1132.33 123.99 1089.278 1.039527 121.9136760915 1.219137
20 1327 1129.75 117.46 1094.573 1.032137 117.070996339 1.17071
21 1247 1128.50 110.50 1099.868 1.026032 109.7551525181 1.097552
22 1302 1127.67 115.46 1105.164 1.020362 113.1562981451 1.131563
23 1205 1134.83 106.18 1110.459 1.02195 107.7601551147 1.077602
24 1234 1139.92 108.25 1115.754 1.021656 106.3904213357 1.063904
25 900 1158.17 77.71 1121.049 1.033109 82.1616704907 0.821617
26 859 1164.17 73.79 1126.345 1.03358 74.9569616649 0.74957
27 927 1169.67 79.25 1131.64 1.033603 80.4095827694 0.804096
28 1038 1175.42 88.31 1136.935 1.033847 86.5634084849 0.865634
29 1058 1179.67 89.69 1142.23 1.032775 93.3368799844 0.933369
30 1397 1184.83 117.91 1147.525 1.032512 106.5247970618 1.065248
1973
31 1476 1190.33 124.00 1152.821 1.03254 121.9136760915 1.219137
32 1393 1197.25 116.35 1158.116 1.033791 117.070996339 1.17071
33 1316 1188.75 110.70 1163.411 1.02178 109.7551525181 1.097552
34 1353 1190.67 113.63 1168.706 1.01879 113.1562981451 1.131563
35 1267 1192.17 106.28 1174.002 1.015473 107.7601551147 1.077602
36 1300 1205.08 107.88 1179.297 1.021866 106.3904213357 1.063904
37 983 1199.42 81.96 1184.592 1.012515 82.1616704907 0.821617
38 757 1199.42 63.11 1189.887 1.008009 74.9569616649 0.74957
39 950 1206.08 78.77 1195.183 1.009121 80.4095827694 0.804096
40 1056 1210.42 87.24 1200.478 1.008279 86.5634084849 0.865634
41 1213 1215.92 99.76 1205.773 1.008413 93.3368799844 0.933369
42 1329 1234.75 107.63 1211.068 1.019554 106.5247970618 1.065248
1974
43 1476 1220.00 120.98 1216.363 1.00299 121.9136760915 1.219137
44 1473 1230.17 119.74 1221.659 1.006964 117.070996339 1.17071
1974

45 1368 1244.67 109.91 1226.954 1.014436 109.7551525181 1.097552


46 1419 1251.58 113.38 1232.249 1.01569 113.1562981451 1.131563
47 1493 1239.58 120.44 1237.544 1.001648 107.7601551147 1.077602
48 1123 1234.67 90.96 1242.84 0.993424 106.3904213357 1.063904
49 1105 1229.83 89.85 1248.135 0.985337 82.1616704907 0.821617
50 931 1235.08 75.38 1253.43 0.985363 74.9569616649 0.74957
51 1033 1243.58 83.07 1258.725 0.98797 80.4095827694 0.804096
52 912 1240.00 73.55 1264.02 0.980997 86.5634084849 0.865634
53 1154 1240.33 93.04 1269.316 0.977167 93.3368799844 0.933369
54 1271 1156.92 109.86 1274.611 0.907663 106.5247970618 1.065248
1975
55 1539 1173.92 131.10 1279.906 0.91719 121.9136760915 1.219137
56 1575 1161.83 135.56 1285.201 0.904009 117.070996339 1.17071
57 1325 1163.75 113.86 1290.497 0.901785 109.7551525181 1.097552
58 1423 1160.67 122.60 1295.792 0.89572 113.1562981451 1.131563
59 492 1184.17 41.55 1301.087 0.910136 107.7601551147 1.077602
60 1327 1204.75 110.15 1306.382 0.922203 106.3904213357 1.063904
61 960 1209.50 79.37 1311.678 0.922102 82.1616704907 0.821617
62 954 1227.92 77.69 1316.973 0.932378 74.9569616649 0.74957
63 996 1229.00 81.04 1322.268 0.929464 80.4095827694 0.804096
64 1194 1240.33 96.26 1327.563 0.934293 86.5634084849 0.865634
65 1401 1258.42 111.33 1332.858 0.944149 93.3368799844 0.933369
66 1328 1337.33 99.30 1338.154 0.999387 106.5247970618 1.065248
1976
67 1760 1351.00 130.27 1343.449 1.005621 121.9136760915 1.219137
68 1588
69 1461
70 1640
71 1439
72 1491

73
F_t

Tahun jan peb mar apr mei jun


1971
1972 87.34 80.65 85.64 86.43 88.80 104.91
1973 77.71 73.79 79.25 88.31 89.69 117.91
1974 81.96 63.11 78.77 87.24 99.76 107.63
1248.498 1975 89.85 75.38 83.07 73.55 93.04 109.86
1202.514 1976 79.37 77.69 81.04 96.26 111.33 99.30
1146.301
1189.273 rata2 med 82.89 75.62 81.12 87.33 94.16 107.47
1140.372 index mus 82.16 74.96 80.41 86.56 93.34 106.52
1126.586 82.16167
875.8434
812.3461 1.0088402
879.7478
953.4238 SUMMARY OUTPUT
1047.94
1196.185 Regression Statistics
1380.469 Multiple R 0.4447424
1322.61 R Square 0.1977958
1238.587 Adjusted R 0.1863357
1276.026 Standard E 224.76868
1222.898 Observatio 72
1212.762
951.5691 ANOVA
872.624 df SS MS F Significance F
940.5241 Regression 1 871970.49 871970.49 17.259578 9.077E-05
1017.481 Residual 70 3536467 50520.961
1101.064 Total 71 4408438
1262.141
1451.179 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
1401.633 Intercept 988.66862 53.535194 18.467639 1.286E-28 881.89605 1095.4412
1304.714 X Variable 5.295228 1.2745873 4.1544649 9.077E-05 2.7531439 7.83731209
1347.314
1284.681
1282.093
985.4608
899.0463
969.8066
1047.778
1134.899
1315.315
1487.347
1440.168
1366.086
1416.245
1335.777
1313.567
1010.452
925.7809
999.9602
1073.386
1157.688
1232.403
1431.165
1360.17
1277.276
1313.367
1276.06
1281.739
993.7454
920.409
988.2338
1073.675
1174.567
1424.592
1647.054

1041.886
jul agt spt okt nov des
116.30 117.12 110.97 99.52 113.68 105.86
123.99 117.46 110.50 115.46 106.18 108.25
124.00 116.35 110.70 113.63 106.28 107.88
120.98 119.74 109.91 113.38 120.44 90.96
131.10 135.56 113.86 122.60 41.55 110.15

122.99 118.11 110.73 114.16 108.71 107.33 1210.61


121.91 117.07 109.76 113.16 107.76 106.39 1200.00

Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


881.89605 1095.4412
2.7531439 7.8373121
Tahun Periode X_t M_t X_t/M_t I_t T_t C_t F_t
1 894 993.9639
2 667 999.2591
3 858 1004.554
4 865 1009.85
5 989 1015.145
6 1093 1020.44
1971
7 1191 1024.083 116.2991 123.5325580985 1025.735 99.83896 1265.08
8 1203 1027.167 117.1183 116.8951995356 1031.03 99.62525 1200.71
9 1159 1044.417 110.971 109.590341373 1036.326 100.7807 1144.58
10 1046 1051 99.52426 112.9863797526 1041.621 100.9004 1187.49
11 1203 1058.25 113.6782 107.5983397087 1046.916 101.0826 1138.66
12 1121 1058.917 105.8629 106.230662757 1052.211 100.6373 1124.89
13 931 1066 87.33583 82.0382944241 1057.507 100.8032 874.53
14 874 1083.75 80.64591 74.8444043735 1062.802 101.971 811.13
15 937 1094.083 85.64247 80.2888376826 1068.097 102.433 878.43
16 952 1101.417 86.43414 86.4334226559 1073.392 102.6108 951.99
17 997 1122.75 88.79982 93.1967229374 1078.687 104.0848 1046.37
18 1178 1122.917 104.9054 106.3648367011 1083.983 103.5917 1194.39
1972
19 1404 1132.333 123.9918 123.5325580985 1089.278 103.9527 1398.80
20 1327 1129.75 117.4596 116.8951995356 1094.573 103.2137 1320.62
21 1247 1128.5 110.5007 109.590341373 1099.868 102.6032 1236.73
22 1302 1127.667 115.4597 112.9863797526 1105.164 102.0362 1274.11
23 1205 1134.833 106.183 107.5983397087 1110.459 102.195 1221.06
24 1234 1139.917 108.2535 106.230662757 1115.754 102.1656 1210.94
25 900 1158.167 77.70902 82.0382944241 1121.049 103.3109 950.14
26 859 1164.167 73.78669 74.8444043735 1126.345 103.358 871.31
27 927 1169.667 79.25335 80.2888376826 1131.64 103.3603 939.11
28 1038 1175.417 88.30911 86.4334226559 1136.935 103.3847 1015.95
29 1058 1179.667 89.68635 93.1967229374 1142.23 103.2775 1099.41
30 1397 1184.833 117.9069 106.3648367011 1147.525 103.2512 1260.25
1973
31 1476 1190.333 123.9989 123.5325580985 1152.821 103.254 1470.45
32 1393 1197.25 116.35 116.8951995356 1158.116 103.3791 1399.53
33 1316 1188.75 110.7045 109.590341373 1163.411 102.178 1302.76
34 1353 1190.667 113.6338 112.9863797526 1168.706 101.879 1345.29
35 1267 1192.167 106.2771 107.5983397087 1174.002 101.5473 1282.75
36 1300 1205.083 107.8764 106.230662757 1179.297 102.1866 1280.17
37 983 1199.417 81.95651 82.0382944241 1184.592 101.2515 983.98
38 757 1199.417 63.11401 74.8444043735 1189.887 100.8009 897.70
39 950 1206.083 78.76736 80.2888376826 1195.183 100.9121 968.35
40 1056 1210.417 87.24269 86.4334226559 1200.478 100.8279 1046.20
41 1213 1215.917 99.76013 93.1967229374 1205.773 100.8413 1133.19
42 1329 1234.75 107.6331 106.3648367011 1211.068 101.9554 1313.34
1974
43 1476 1220 120.9836 123.5325580985 1216.363 100.299 1507.10
44 1473 1230.167 119.7399 116.8951995356 1221.659 100.6964 1438.01
1974

45 1368 1244.667 109.9089 109.590341373 1226.954 101.4436 1364.03


46 1419 1251.583 113.3764 112.9863797526 1232.249 101.569 1414.12
47 1493 1239.583 120.4437 107.5983397087 1237.544 100.1648 1333.77
48 1123 1234.667 90.95572 106.230662757 1242.84 99.3424 1311.59
49 1105 1229.833 89.84957 82.0382944241 1248.135 98.5337 1008.93
50 931 1235.083 75.37953 74.8444043735 1253.43 98.53628 924.39
51 1033 1243.583 83.06641 80.2888376826 1258.725 98.79704 998.46
52 912 1240 73.54839 86.4334226559 1264.02 98.09968 1071.77
53 1154 1240.333 93.03951 93.1967229374 1269.316 97.71669 1155.95
54 1271 1156.917 109.861 106.3648367011 1274.611 90.76626 1230.55
1975
55 1539 1173.917 131.0996 123.5325580985 1279.906 91.71896 1450.17
56 1575 1161.833 135.5616 116.8951995356 1285.201 90.40088 1358.13
57 1325 1163.75 113.8561 109.590341373 1290.497 90.17846 1275.36
58 1423 1160.667 122.602 112.9863797526 1295.792 89.572 1311.40
59 492 1184.167 41.54821 107.5983397087 1301.087 91.01364 1274.14
60 1327 1204.75 110.1473 106.230662757 1306.382 92.22032 1279.81
61 960 1209.5 79.37164 82.0382944241 1311.678 92.21016 992.25
62 954 1227.917 77.69257 74.8444043735 1316.973 93.23782 919.03
63 996 1229 81.0415 80.2888376826 1322.268 92.94636 986.75
64 1194 1240.333 96.26445 86.4334226559 1327.563 93.42932 1072.06
65 1401 1258.417 111.3304 93.1967229374 1332.858 94.41488 1172.80
66 1328 1337.333 99.30209 106.3648367011 1338.154 99.9387 1422.45
1976
67 1760 1351 130.2739 123.5325580985 1343.449 100.5621 1668.92
68 1588 1348.744
69 1461 1354.039
70 1640 1359.335
71 1439 1364.63
72 1491 1369.925

73 1040.322
74 963.3691
75 1034.169
76 1123.376
77 1228.715
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1971 116.2991 117.1183
1972 87.33583 80.64591 85.64247 86.43414 88.79982 104.9054 123.9918 117.4596
1973 77.70902 73.78669 79.25335 88.30911 89.68635 117.9069 123.9989 116.35
1974 81.95651 63.11401 78.76736 87.24269 99.76013 107.6331 120.9836 119.7399
1975 89.84957 75.37953 83.06641 73.54839 93.03951 109.861 131.0996 135.5616
1976 79.37164 77.69257 81.0415 96.26445 111.3304 99.30209 130.2739

Rata2 medi82.88799 75.61959 81.12042 87.32864 94.16199 107.4665 124.812 118.1059


indeks mu 82.03829 74.8444 80.28884 86.43342 93.19672 106.3648 123.5326 116.8952

Nilai peny 0.989749

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.444742
R Square 0.197796
Adjusted R 0.186336
Standard E 224.7687
Observatio 72

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 871970.5 871970.5 17.25958 9.08E-05
Residual 70 3536467 50520.96
Total 71 4408438

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 988.6686 53.53519 18.46764 1.29E-28 881.896 1095.441 881.896 1095.441
X Variable 5.295228 1.274587 4.154465 9.08E-05 2.753144 7.837312 2.753144 7.837312

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
9 10 11 12
110.971 99.52426 113.6782 105.8629
110.5007 115.4597 106.183 108.2535
110.7045 113.6338 106.2771 107.8764
109.9089 113.3764 120.4437 90.95572
113.8561 122.602 41.54821 110.1473

110.7254 114.1566 108.7128 107.3309 1212.429


109.5903 112.9864 107.5983 106.2307 1200

Upper 95.0%
Tahun Periode X_t
1 894
2 667
3 858
4 865
5 989
6 1093
1971
7 1191
8 1203
9 1159
10 1046
11 1203
12 1121
13 931
14 874
15 937
16 952
17 997
18 1178
1972
19 1404
20 1327
21 1247
22 1302
23 1205
24 1234
25 900
26 859
27 927
28 1038
29 1058
30 1397
1973
31 1476
32 1393
33 1316
34 1353
35 1267
36 1300
37 983
38 757
39 950
40 1056
41 1213
42 1329
1974
43 1476
44 1473
1974

45 1368
46 1419
47 1493
48 1123
49 1105
50 931
51 1033
52 912
53 1154
54 1271
1975
55 1539
56 1575
57 1325
58 1423
59 492
60 1327
61 960
62 954
63 996
64 1194
65 1401
66 1328
1976
67 1760
68 1588
69 1461
70 1640
71 1439
72 1491

73