Extra Assignment Problem for Project Management

Your company had a process with tasks as shown:

Immediate
Task Predecessors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A None 3 6 15
B None 2 4 14
C A 6 12 30
D A 2 5 8
E C 5 11 17
F D 3 6 15
G B 3 9 27
H E,F 1 4 7
I G,H 4 19 28
(a) Develop the critical path diagram for the process.
(b) Determine the duration of the critical path.
(c) Determine slack times for all activities.
(d) What is the probability of finishing the project in less than 53 days?

SOLUTION

a + 4m + b
ET =
(a) 21 32 6
(d)
⎛b−a⎞
2
C(14) E(11)
7 21 32 36
Most Exp. σ2 =⎜ ⎟
⎝ 6 ⎠
A(7) 12 19 H(4) Task Pred. Opt. Likely Pess. Time Var.
7 D(5) F(7) 36 A None 3 6 15 7 4
32 54 B None 2 4 14 5.3
25
I(18) C A 6 12 30 14 16
54 D A 2 5 8 5
5.3 16.3 E C 5 11 17 11 4
B F D 3 6 15 7
G(11)
(5.3) G B 3 9 27 11
25 36
H E,F 1 4 7 4 1
I G,H 4 19 28 18 16
(b) Duration = 54 Days
Sum the variance along
the critical path:
(c) Task Slack 4+16+4+1+16=41
A 0
B 19.7 Z=
D - TE
∑σ
2
C 0 D - TE 53-54
Z = = = -0.156
cp

∑
D 13
E 0
p(t < D)
σcp2 41
F 13 D=53
G 19.7 p(Z < -0.156) = 0.438
H 0 TE = 54 t = 43.8 %
I 0

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