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A Metamodel for Disaster Risk Models

Wawan Hendriawan Nur Fazat Nur Azizah Saiful Akbar


1
School of Electrical Engineering and School of Electrical Engineering School of Electrical Engineering and
Informatics and Informatics Informatics
Institut Teknologi Bandung Institut Teknologi Bandung Institut Teknologi Bandung
Bandung, Indonesia Bandung, Indonesia Bandung, Indonesia
2
Research Center for Geotechnology fazat@informatika.org saiful@informatika.org
Indonesian Institute of Science
Bandung, Indonesia
wawa018@lipi.go.id

Abstract—As the world faces an increasing number of both used to model components, indicators, and disaster risk
natural and social disasters, attempts to support disaster risk calculation formula. The understanding of disaster risk requires
reduction are also increasing. Although there is a general rule to an understanding of the components of disaster risk. The
calculate the disaster risk on an area based on the components of relation among the disaster risk components is presented in
hazard, vulnerability, and capacity, disaster risk studies result in
equation (1).
a number of disaster risk models which present different
characteristics in terms of the number of components involved, Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
indicators, and the calculations. This poses a difficulty for disaster (1)
Capacity
analysts to choose the most appropriate model to calculate the
disaster risk of an area. Moreover, they often need to adapt the Various disaster risk models have been developed,
existing models or even to create new models in order to provide comprising of many components, indicators, as well as different
the most suitable way of calculating the disaster risks. Therefore, methods of calculation. This creates a difficulty for disaster risk
a mechanism that enables the use of different kinds of disaster analysis to determine which disaster risk model to be used when
risk model and the creation of new models is required. This paper tried to assess the disaster risk of an area. An area can have
presents a metamodel of disaster risk based on a study on a different characteristics from other areas. Therefore, an
number of disaster risk models used in Indonesia: the BNPB appropriate disaster risk model must be employed for the area,
(Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana) disaster risk model, based on the availability of data.
the volcanic disaster risk model using SMART (Simple Multi
Attribute Rating Technique) method, and the tidal flooding This research focuses on providing a generic model that
disaster risk model using fuzzy method. The metamodel is incorporates a wide range of disaster risk models. Such generic
presented in an entity-relationship model. It is basically a spatial model is expected to accommodate the need of to use different
data model since the components and indicators for the kinds of model in the analysis of disaster risk in a single tool.
calculation of disaster risks are always associated to the space on Furthermore, if new disaster risk model is required, due to some
earth. The metamodel is implemented on top of ArcGIS software. limitations on data, or other purposes, the generic model is
Using Phyton Add-in, the software is adapted by adding new expected to be able to cope with it. A metamodeling approach is
functionalities to calculate the disaster risk of an area and to used by studying 3 (three) typical disaster risk models used in
create new disaster risk models. Indonesia: the BNPB (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan
Keywords— ArcGIS; BNPB; disaster; disaster risk map; disaster
Bencana) disaster risk model, the SMART disaster risk model,
risk model; disaster risk reduction; metamodel. and the Fuzzy disaster risk model.

I. INTRODUCTION II. LITERATURE STUDY


Due to its geographical position, Indonesia is prone to Disaster is an event of a sudden or great misfortune that
natural hazards [1]. As a lesson learned from a number of interfere with the basic composition and functions of a
natural disasters that had caused the loss of property and life in community or communities [2]. Disaster risk assessments is an
Indonesia, the awareness of disasters and disaster management integrated mechanism to conduct a regional disaster risk
in Indonesia has been increasing. In 2007, the government analysis based on the hazard, vulnerability, and capacity [3].
passed Law No. 24 on disaster management in Indonesia. The Hazard is a condition with the possibility of danger in a region.
act requires the local governments to be able to conduct disaster Vulnerability is a condition of a community or communities
risk assessments in areas as a part of the effort for disaster risk which leads to an inability in the face of danger. Capacity is the
reduction. ability of a region and its communities to take action to reduce
the level of threat and the level of catastrophic losses.
Disaster risk assessment is aimed at calculating the disaster
risk in an area. Disaster risk is usually visualized in the disaster A disaster risk model is used in the assessment of disaster
risk. Several prominent disaster risk models used in Indonesia
risk map. In calculating the disaster risk, disaster risk model is
are: the disaster risk model of BNPB, the volcanic disaster risk
models using the SMART (Simple Multi Attribute Rating A. The Disaster Risk Model of BNPB
Technique) method, and the tidal flood disaster risk model using As stated in section II, the disaster risk model of BNPB is
fuzzy method. often cited as a reference in calculating the risk of disaster in
A. The Disaster Risk Model of BNPB Indonesia both for natural and non-natural hazard.
In 2012, BNPB as the coordinator and executor of disaster The vulnerability component of the model is composed by
management in Indonesia issued Peraturan Kepala (Perka) several subcomponents: social, economic, physical, and
BNPB No. 2 as a guideline for disaster risk assessment in environmental vulnerability. Each subcomponent consists of
Indonesia. This Perka explains how to perform risk assessment several indicators. The components and indicators involved in
of disasters in Indonesia and how to calculate the risk of the BNPB disaster risk model are shown in Table I.
disaster. To calculate the disaster risk map, BNPB creates a
disaster risk model. The disaster risk model becomes the TABLE I. THE COMPONENTS AND INDICATORS OF THE DISASTER RISK
common reference of the assessment of disaster risk in MODEL OF BNPB
Indonesia [4]. Sub-
Indicator W W Component
The guideline outlines the essential components and component
Hazard Hazard
indicators of a disaster risk model as well as the formula to
calculate the disaster risk. The model is composed by three Population density 0.6
main components: hazard, vulnerability, and capacity. For each Sex ratio 0.1
component, a number of indicators are defined. To calculate the Ratio of poverty 0.1 Social 0.4
disaster risk, each indicators are given different weight using Ratio of disable people 0.1
AHP (Analysis Hierarchical Process). The guideline also Ratio of age 01
defines 13 (thirteen) types of hazard: earthquake, tsunami, Productive land 0.6
flood, landslide, volcanic eruption, abrasion, extreme weather, Economic 0.25
Gross Domestic Product 0.4
drought, forest and land fire, building and settlement fire, Home 0.4
Vulne-
epidemic and outbreak of disease, technological failure, and rability
Public facility 0.4 Physical 0.25
social conflict.
Critical facility 0.3
B. Disaster Risk Model using SMART Method Forest 0.4
The disaster risk model using the SMART method is used to Protected forest 0.4
Environ-
calculate the risk of volcanic disaster. The disaster risk model is Mangrove forest 0.1
mental
0.1
composed also by three main components: hazard, vulnerability, Shrubs 0.1
and capacity [5]. Swamp 0.0
Rules and disaster
The disaster risk model using the SMART is a development management institutions
0.2
from BNPB disaster risk model. It focuses on the use of land as Early warning and disaster
0.2
an indicator of vulnerability. As in the BNPB disaster risk risk assessment
model, a number of indicators are defined for each of the Disaster education 0.2 Capacity
component. The weight of each indicators is determined using Basic disaster risk factor
0.2
the SMART method. reduction
Development of disaster
0.2
C. Disaster Risk Model using Fuzzy Method preparedness
The disaster risk model using the fuzzy method is used to Note: W : weight
calculate the risk of tidal flood hazard. With a reference to the Each of the components, subcomponents, and indicators of
BNPB risk models, the risk model uses fuzzy method to disaster risk model is assigned a weight value that is used to
determine the weight of each component and indicators calculate the risk of a disaster. The disaster risk is then
contained in the model. The disaster risk model is also calculated using equation (2) based on the calculation of
composed by the components hazard, vulnerability, and components hazard, vulnerability, and capacity.
capacity [6].
3ට
III. THE METAMODEL OF DISASTER RISK MODELS Risk = H*V*(1-C) (2)
Although there is a general rule to calculate the disaster risk
on a certain area based on hazard, vulnerability, and capacity, Description:
disaster risk studies result in a number of disaster risk models
which present different characteristics in terms of the number of • R: Risk, the disaster risk.
components involved, indicators, and the calculations. In this • H: Hazard, the frequency of certain disasters occur with
research, we proposed a metamodel created based on three particular intensity at a particular location.
prominent disaster risk models in Indonesia: the BNPB disaster
risk model, the volcanic disaster risk model using SMART • V: Vulnerability, the impact of a particular disaster.
method, and the tidal flood disaster risk model using fuzzy • C: Capacity, the capacity to recover from a certain
method. disaster.
A disaster risk map is then created by overlaying the interviews with community members and governments. The
calculation of the components of hazard, vulnerability, and components and indicators of the disaster risk model using the
capacity as well as the overall disaster risk on top of a basemap. fuzzy method is shown in Table III.
B. The Disaster Risk Model Using SMART Method TABLE III. THE COMPONENTS AND INDICATORS OF THE DISASTER RISK
MODEL USING FUZZY METHOD
The components of the disaster risk model using SMART
methods are composed of hazard, vulnerability, and capacity. Sub- Compo-
Indicators W W
component nent
This disaster risk model is used to model volcanic disaster risk.
Hazard Hazard
The vulnerability component of this disaster risk model employs
Population density 0.5
a landuse map that illustrates the condition of social, economy,
and communities in the area. The capacity component consists Percentage of poverty 0.2
of indicators representing the condition of society and the Percecntage of pregnant 0.1 Social 0.4
government in some aspects. The data for the capacity Percentage of toddler 0.1
component are obtained by observation or interviews with Percentage of elderly 0.1
community members and governments. The components and Productive lands 0.25
indicators of the disaster risk model using SMART method are Area of economic value 0.25 Economic
0.25
shown in Table II. Unemployment 0.25
TABLE II. THE COMPONENTS AND INDICATORS OF THE DISASTER RISK Total economic resources 0.25
MODEL USING SMART METHOD Percentage of electricity
0.2
networks
Compo-
Indicator W W Percentage of the road Vulnera-
nent 0.2
network
Hazard Hazard 0.5 bility
Percentage of
Developed region 100 telecommunications 0.2
Rice field 80 networks Physical 0.25
Plantation 60 Percentage of the
0.2
developed regions
Field 40 Vulnera- Percentage of the number
0.25 0.1
Forest 30 bility of buildings
Grassland and groves 20 Percentage of non-
0.1
permanent buildings
Water area 10
Area of mangrove 0.25
Top of the mountain 5 Environ-
Rice fields 0.25
The early warning system 0.2 mental 0.1
Broad pastures 0.25
Knowledge of disaster 0.35
Capacity 0.25 Area of wetlands 0.25
Infrastructure 0.3
Number of health workers 0.2 `
Institutions 0.15
Number of health facilities 0.2
Note: W : weight
Dissemination of disaster 0.2 Capacity
The disaster risk is then calculated using equation (2). The Obtaining assistance 0.2
end result of the disaster risk model using SMART method is Development of disaster
0.2
presented on a disaster risk map by overlaying the result of the preparedness
calculation of the component of hazard, vulnerability, and Note: W: weight
capacity as well as the overall disaster risk on top of a basemap. The disaster risk is then calculated using equation (2). A
disaster risk map is then created by overlaying the calculation of
C. The Disaster Risk Model Using the Fuzzy Method the components of hazard, vulnerability, and capacity as well as
The disaster risk model using fuzzy method is composed by the overall disaster risk on top of a basemap.
components hazard, vulnerability, and capacity. The disaster
risk model using fuzzy method is used to calculate the risk of D. The Metamodel of Disaster Risk Models
tidal flood hazard. The vulnerability component is composed by From the discussion of the essential components and
several subcomponents: social, economic, physical, and indicators, in general, the disaster risk models contain the
environmental vulnerability. Each subcomponent consists of following characteristics:
several indicators. The social vulnerability is the vulnarable
conditions associated to the public or the population in an area. • Component: the main entity of a disaster risk model.
The economic vulnerability is a vulnerable condition related to Based on the discussion on the disaster risk models, it is
the economy of the community or the population. The physical concluded that each model consists of components of
vulnerability is a vulnerable condition related to the houses and hazard, vulnerability, and capacity.
buildings located in an area. The environmental vulnerability is • Subcomponent: a part of disaster risk component. For
a vulnerable condition related to the environment in an area. example, the component vulnerability of the BNPB
The capacity component consists of indicators representing disaster risk model consists of subcomponents of social,
the condition of the society and the government in some economic, physical, and environmental vulnerability.
aspects. The capacity data are obtained by observation or
• The components and subcomponents of a disaster risk
model consist of indicators with values that describe the
real condition of an area.
• Each of the components, subcomponents, and the
indicators is assigned a weight that is used for the
calculation of the disaster risk.
The relationship among the components, subcomponents,
and indicators of a disaster risk model can be defined in the
form of a tree structure, representing the hierarchy of the
components the model. The structure is similar to that of
composition pattern in [7]. See Fig. 1 for the hierarchy.
Component

Subcomponent Indicator

Fig. 2. The metamodel framework for disaster risk models


Indicator Indicator
IV. THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE METAMODEL
Fig. 1. The hierachy of components, subcomponents, and indicators of a
disaster risk model A system is designed and developed based on the
metamodel. The system is implemented on top of ArcGIS
Based on the structure, a metamodel is determined. The technology using Phyton Add-in.
metamodel describes the components, subcomponents, as well
as the indicators that build a disaster risk model. A framework A. The System Requirements
to use the metamodel for calculating a disaster risk based on a The system requirements are as following:
certain disaster risk model is shown in Fig. 2. As shown in Fig.
2, the metamodel can be applied for all kinds of disaster risk • The user of the system is a disaster analyst (a person
model. with the expertise and the understanding in disaster risk
assessments).
The metamodel of disaster risk model is an abstraction of
the various models of disaster risk. The metamodel of disaster • Two main functions in the system are: (1) to calculate
risk model is then represented in an Entity-Relationship (ER) the disaster risk of an area based on a certain disaster
model. The ER model illustrates the relationships among the risk model; and (2) to create a new or to change an
components, subcomponents, indicators, as well as the value existing disaster risk model.
and weight of each component, subcomponent, and indicator. B. The System Architecture
The disaster risk can then be calculated based on a particular
equation. See Fig. 3 for the ER diagram of the metamodel. The architecture of the system is designed based on the use
of the metamodel of disaster risk models. The architecture can
The metamodel disaster risk model is expected to be be observed in Fig. 4. Three major components are defined:
generic, so that it can accommodate existing disaster risk
models and can accommodate new models that may be • The ArcGIS system for displaying the disaster risk
developed in the future. model and managing the spatial data,
• Spatial database using Microsoft Access,
• Python Add-in that is used to provide the functions to
calculate the disaster risk based on a disaster risk model
and the related values and formula.
The spatial database plays a major component of the system.
Each of the components, subcomponents, and indicators are
defined on a space on earth. Therefore, a spatial database is
used. The spatial database is managed in Microsoft Access.
Fig. 3. The metamodel of the disaster risk models in ER Diagram

The ArcGIS software system is most popular GIS software. Python Add-in is used by adding a functionality on top of
ArcGIS is used to display the disaster risk model and to manage ArcGIS software to perform the disaster risk calculations
the disaster risk data. automatically [8]. Using the Python Add-in, we are allowed to
easily create, share, and add tools necessary for managing the
disaster risk models. Fig. 5 shows the toolbars with special
functions to calculate disaster risk models based on the existing
spatial database.

Fig. 5. The toolbar for disaster risk calculation created on ArcGIS

V. CASE STUDY
To test the implementation of the metamodel in the system,
a case study is described. The case study involves the data of
Kabupaten (district) Karangasem, Bali Province. The data of
hazard are prepared using the volcanic hazard map prepared by
Pusat Mitigasi Bencana Vulkanologi dan Geologi (the Agency
for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation). The
vulnerability data are taken from the Biro Pusat Statistik
Fig. 4. The system architecture (Central Bureau of Statistics). For the capacity data are dummy
data (assumptions) because of the unavailability of real data.
The vulnerability and capacity data of Kabupaten Karangasem
are defined with three different classes: low, medium, and high.
The qualitative values are translated into quantitative values:
high-grade-class (tinggi) index of 1, the middle-class As can be seen in Fig. 8, the disaster risk map of Kabupaten
(menengah) index of 0.66 and a low-value-class (rendah) index Karangasem shows that the risk indexes for aech village. The
of 0.33. high or medium risk index means that the area has a high or
medium level vulnerability, low capacity, and high or medium
threat of hazard.
VI. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORKS
In this paper, we present our work on the metamodel of
disaster risk models based on a study of three disaster risk
models discussed. A disaster risk model contains three major
components: hazard, vulnerability, and capacity. Each of the
component contain subcomponents or indicators, forming a
hiearchy. The metamodel is created based on this hiearchy and
it can accommodate different disaster risk models and makes it
possible to create a new model.
We have adapted ArcGIS using Phyton Add-in to contain
the metamodel and added new functionalities to create new
Fig. 6. The vulnerability component map of Kabupaten Karangasem based on disaster risk models and to calculate the disaster risk of a certain
the BNPB disaster risk model area based on a chosen disaster risk model and the data related
to the area. It is expected that this system can be used by
disaster analysits to help analyzing the disaster risk of an area
using different models.
Further studies and testing are still required to provide
evidence of the contribution of the metamodel and the system in
assisting disaster risk analysis. The work are based on disaster
risk models in Indonesia. Therefore, we need to test the result
further to check whether the concept works in a more global
context. Another possible improvement of the metamodel is to
consider the temporal aspect of disaster data.
REFERENCES
[1] Anwar H., Z., Harjono H., “Perspektif terhadap Kebencanaan dan
Lingkungan di Indonesia”, LIPI, Jakarta, 2012
[2] Coburn, A.W., Spense, R.J.S., dan Pomonis, A., “Mitigasi Bencana,
Fig. 7. The capacity component map of Kabupaten Karangasem based on the Modul Program Pelatihan Manajemen Bencana”, UNDP, United
BNPB disaster risk model Kingdom, 1994
[3] ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), “Living with Risk:
A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives Preliminary Version”,
United Nations, Geneva, 2002
[4] BNPB, “Perka BNPB Tahun 2012”, BNPB, Jakarta, 2012
[5] Wahyudi Y, Deliar A, Harto A. B., “Metode Simple Multi Atribute
Rating Technique (SMART) dalam Melakukan Model Analisis Risiko
Bencana Erupsi Gunung Api (Wilayah Studi: Gunung Semeru)”, 2012.
[6] L. N. Arief, B. S. Purnama, Aditya T., “Pemetaan Risiko Bencana Banjir
Rob Kota Semarang”, The 1st Conference on Geospatial Information
Science and Engineering, 2012
[7] Erich Gamma, Richard Helm, Ralph Johnson, and John Vlissides,
“Design Patterns: Elemnets of Reusable Object-Oriented Software”,
USA, Addisan-Wesley, 1997
[8] Pimpler E., “Programming ArcGIS 10.1 with Python Cookbook”, Packt
Publishing, Birmingham-Mumbai, 2013

Fig. 8. The disaster risk map of Kabupaten Karangasem based on the BNPB
disaster risk model

Using the toolbar of the disaster risk model developed, we


created the BNPB disaster risk model for the volcanic hazard.
The result of calculation is shown in Fig. 6 (focuses on the
vulnerability component), Fig. 7 (focuses on the capacity
component), and Fig. 8 (the disaster risk map).

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