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Salinan Terjemahan Untitled1
ponder on the mechanism for such influences. Here, we describe one that may help interpret the observed re-
lationship between the MJO and ENSO warm events. This hypothesized mechanism focuses on the MJO ef- fect on
the eastern Pacific Ocean. It complements that proposed by Kessler et al. (1995), which emphasizes the MJO effect
on the western and central Pacific (see discussions in section 1).
The intraseasonal oceanic downwelling Kelvin waves forced by the MJO propagate from the western Pacific into the eastern
Pacific. There, they deepen the equatorial thermocline, decrease the vertical gradient of temperature in the upper ocean, lessen the
cooling by mean equatorial upwelling, and thereby introduce positive anomalies in the temperature of the mixed layer and at the
surface. The zonal gradient of equatorial SST is thus reduced. When Kelvin wave forcing by the MJO is unusually strong, the
reduction in the zonal gradient of SST might be sufficiently large to induce a positive feedback from the atmosphere, namely, to
make the trade winds relax. If this happens during the initial and developing stages of an ENSO warm event, the growth of the
event might be accelerated and its peak amplitude amplified.
In the eastern Pacific, the equatorial SST anomalies induced by the MJO-forced Kelvin waves have been observed
(Johnson and McPhaden 1993a; Kessler et al. 1995; Zhang 2001). The reduction in the cooling by mean upwelling
is likely a cause of the SST anom- alies there. Kelvin wave signals are highly correlated with fluctuations in the
vertical temperature gradient and SST (Zhang 2001). Mean vertical advection of perturbation temperature is the
largest term in the heat budget of the Kelvin waves (Johnson and McPhaden 1993a). Once the zonal SST gradient is
reduced, a
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15 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
corresponding relaxation of the trade wind can take place through known mechanisms (eg, Lindzen and Nigam
1987).
One critical and perhaps the least certain aspect of this mechanism is its rectification of high-frequency forcing by
the MJO on the low-frequency variability of SST. Without any rectification, the MJO can influence ENSO only
through its low-frequency component, which may come from its seasonality and irregularity. Its amplitude is shown
to be small (Syu and Neelin 2000). Rectification may come from nonlinearity and the asymmetric (nonsinusoidal)
structure of the MJO. The total surface zonal winds associated with the MJO vary more as pulses of westerlies than
sinusoidal os- cillation between westerlies and easterlies. Kelvin waves generated by such winds behave also as
pulses (Lukas et al. 1984). Accumulative effects of a group of pulselike Kelvin waves on the eastern Pacific would
be a net eastward thermal advection and a net increase in the thermocline depth.
c. Relative importance of Kelvin wave forcing by the
MJO
In addition to forcing the Kelvin waves, the MJO can help reduce the zonal gradient of SST by cooling the
western Pacific through enhancing the surface wind speed and thereby surface heat fluxes (eg, Hendon and Glick
1997; Shinoda et al. 1998; Zhang and McPhaden 2000). Strong seasonal activity of the MJO component of surface
zonal wind ( ) in the western Pacific
u
MJO also leads those in Nin ̃o-3 SST by up to 12 months (Fig. 7a). The highest lag
correlation between the two is, however, at negative lags of 2–4 months. The difference between Figs. 4a and 7a is
obvious.
The role of the oceanic Kelvin waves in the hypoth- esized mechanism is essential. Without being projected on
the oceanic Kelvin waves, zonal stress itself is not correlated to Nin ̃o SSTs at all. The distinction between the MJO
and other types of intraseasonal phenomena in their effects on ENSO is best illustrated in Fig. 7b, where lag
correlation for Nin ̃o-3 SST and the non-MJO component of intraseasonal Kelvin wave forcing ( ) is plotted. The
correlation coefficients here
K
NMJO are much lower than that between Nin ̃o-3 SST and the MJO component of Kelvin wave forcing ( ;
Fig.
K
MJO 4b).
The Kelvin waves can be generated also by wind anomalies of frequencies outside the intraseasonal band. They
may thus serve as dynamic links between those winds and SST. Vecchi and Harrison (2000) have found that
high-frequency westerly wind events can be related to low-frequency SST anomalies in the central and east- ern
Pacific. Penland (1996) has shown that the growth of an ''optimal initial structure'' in a stochastic model precedes
major ENSO events by 7 months. It remains a challenge to sort out the differences and similarities
1 S
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. 7. Coefficients (contours) and confidence levels (shading) of lag correlation between interannual anomalies in Nin ̃o-3
SST and interannual anomalies in (a) seasonal variance of the MJO component in surface zonal wind ( conventions u MJO ) and
(b) seasonal variance of Kelvin wave forcing are the same as in Fig. 4.
by non-MJO intraseasonal zonal stress ( K
NMJO
). Other
of the effects on ENSO by the MJO and other types of wind events.
5. Concluding remarks
An observation has been presented that suggests a pos- sible dynamic relationship between seasonal activity of the
MJO in the western Pacific and SST anomalies of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. The main result is a ten- dency of
stronger warm events of ENSO being preceded by stronger Kelvin wave forcing by the MJO in the west- ern
Pacific. This tendency has been shown in both the evolution of individual warm events and statistical cor- relation.
The observation is based on data from a period (1980–99) that embedded only eight extreme ENSO events (six
warm events and two cold events). Issues related to the quality of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis prior to 1980 and the
interdecadal variability of the MJO and ENSO should be pursued to explain the absence of the observed relationship
between ENSO warm events and the MJO during the period of 1950–79.
This study suggests that the Kelvin wave forcing by the MJO is perhaps a more appropriate measure of MJO
activities than other indices of MJO in exploration of possible MJO effects on ENSO. The most common MJO
indices are derived from the leading EOF modes of in- traseasonally bandpassed cloud patterns or tropospheric
zonal winds in the global Tropics (eg, Lau and Chan 1988; Zhang and Hendon 1997; Hendon et al. 1999; Slingo et
al. 1999). Such MJO indices may measure well the overall global activity of the MJO, but do not ac- curately depict
local effects of the MJO on the Pacific Ocean. An anomalously active season for the MJO in the Indian Ocean may
yield a positive interannual anomaly
in a global MJO index but this does not necessarily mean MJO activity is also anomalously strong in the Pacific. If
the MJO indeed affects ENSO, its influence must come into play through air–sea interaction in the Pacific where the
ENSO cycle is rooted. To explore influences of the MJO on ENSO and ENSO prediction, using MJO indices
derived from fields that directly represent physical pro- cesses of air–sea interaction local to the equatorial Pacific is
highly recommended.
The main result from this study indicates that it is the seasonal activity of the MJO, rather than its indi- vidual
event, that matters the most to its effects on ENSO. This may have an interesting implication to ENSO prediction.
Skills of ENSO prediction by current models, dynamical or statistical, are limited. Models that can predict the
occurrence of a warm event with a lead time of 6–9 months often underestimate the growth rate and amplitude of
SST anomalies and mislocate the max- imum SST anomalies (Barnston et al. 1999; Landsea and Knaff 2000; BP
Kirtman 2000, personal com- munication). A lack of MJO signals in the models might be one of many reasons for
the deficiency of current ENSO prediction (McPhaden 1999). But dynamic mod- els do not have any skill predicting
the MJO beyond a few days (Jones et al. 2000; Hendon et al. 2000). The interannual fluctuations in the MJO seem
not to be caus- ally related to interannual variations in SST but are driv- en by atmospheric internal dynamics
(Slingo et al. 1999; Hendon et al. 1999). They are, therefore, deemed un- predictable. Because of all these reasons, it
is tempting to accept the view that, if the MJO influences ENSO, it serves to limit ENSO predictability.
The results from this study provide a different view.
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2002 2439 ZHANG AND GOTTSCHALCK
2440 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
V
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E 15 This view asserts that ENSO is in general affected more by seasonal activity of the MJO than by its in- dividual
events. It is much more feasible for a model to maintain a correct level of seasonal activity of the MJO, (eg, Sperber
et al. 1997; Waliser et al. 1999) than to predict the timing of individual MJO events. The 6–12-month lead time of
Kelvin wave forcing by the MJO with respect to ENSO warm events indicates that ENSO prediction might benefit
from the inclusion of the MJO in ENSO prediction models even without having to predict the interannual variability
of the MJO. If a model has a skill of predicting the occur- rence of ENSO warm events with lead times of 6–9
months, then its prediction of the magnitude of the events might be improved provided we can determine the
environmental factors for the seasonal activity of the MJO, have these factors included in the initial conditions for
the model, and improve the model so it can maintain the correct level of seasonal activity of the MJO consistent with
the initial conditions. These are daunting but achievable tasks.
Ucapan Terima Kasih. The authors wish to thank Mat- thew Harrison, Harry Hendon, William Kessler, Mi- chael
McPhaden, and Anthony Rosati for their com- ments on an early version of the manuscript. Many discussions with
Harry Hendon have been particularly beneficial. Patient and persistent comments from two anonymous reviewers
helped shape the manuscript into its current form. David Thompson brought the authors' attention to the temperature
jump around 1979 in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis shown in appendix B. Dis- cussions with Gabriel Vecchi helped
the design of the correlation tests described in appendix C. Comments from an anonymous reviewer who
recommended re- jection of an earlier submission of this manuscript mo- tivated the correlation tests. The first
author would also like to thank David Battisti and Ed Sarachik for hosting his summer visits to the Hayes Center at
the Joint In- stitute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, during which
this study was initiated. Abderrahim Bentamy of Institut Francais de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer
(IFREMER) helped make the ERS wind data available. The NCEP–NCAR data were downloaded from the Web site
of NOAA/CDC. This study is supported by NOAA's Office of Global Programs through awards under Cooperative
Agreement #NA67RJO149 to CI- MAS and #NA67RJ0155 to JISAO and by NSF Grants ATM-9706016 and
ATM99122297.
APPENDIX A
Comparisons between NCEP–NCAR and ERS Surface Winds
The quality of the tropical surface wind data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis should not be taken for grant-
ed. Here, we compare equatorial surface winds from the reanalysis with observations from the European Remote
Sensing (ERS) satellites. The ERS data consist of re- trievals from identical instruments on board two polar- orbiting
satellites, ERS-1 (launched July 1991) and ERS- 2 (launched April 1995). The ERS scatterometers are active
microwave C-band (5.3 GHz) radars, which mea- sure the ratio of backscatter to transmitted signal power. The data
are sampled into cells of 50 km 50 km over a 500-km-wide swath. Wind speed and direction are estimated at 10-m
height for neutral stratification. Com- paring with in situ buoy measurements in the equatorial Pacific, the mean bias
in speed is 0.36 ms 1 and the standard deviation is 1.46 ms 1 within a 1 1 area around buoy locations. The
discrepancies are mainly for buoy wind speed less than 2 ms 1 or greater than 10 ms 1. Correlation coefficients for
weekly time series of ERS and buoy winds are, averaged over different buoys, 0.82 for the zonal wind component
and 0.72 for the meridional component. Detailed information of the ERS wind products and their comparisons with
in situ and other remote sensing wind measurements can be found from Bentamy et al. (1996, 1999), and Grima et
al. (1999).
Gridded (1.0 1.0 ) weekly mean ERS-1/2 wind data were interpolated to the reanalysis grids. Compar- isons were
made for pentad and monthly means of the two datasets averaged between 2.5 N and 2.5 S over the period of August
1991–December 1999, during which the ERS data are available to this study. The Kelvin wave calculated forcing
using index the two K and datasets its MJO were component also compared.
K
MJO
There is an obvious discrepancy between the reanalysis and ERS winds. It takes two pairs of leading HSVD modes
of the reanalysis winds to fully represent the interannual variability of the MJO signals. The first pair of HSVD
modes depict the interannual fluctuations in the magnitude of the MJO signals in the Indian and western Pacific
Ocean. The interannual fluctuations in the zonal fetch of the MJO (Kessler et al. 1995) are represented only by the
second pair of HSVD modes. In contrast, the interannual variability of the MJO sig- nals in the ERS surface winds,
both in the magnitude and zonal fetch, is well represented by their first pair of HSVD modes. The reason for this
discrepancy is unknown. But the MJO signals represented by the first two pairs of HSVD modes of the reanalysis
winds well resemble those represented by the first pair of HSVD modes of the ERS winds.
Correlation between zonal winds, meridional winds, wind speeds, and the Kelvin wave forcing indices of the two
datasets was respectively calculated. It is sig- nificant at the 99% confidence level for all the variables at all
longitudes in the Pacific. The highest correlation is for K ( 0.85) over the entire Pacific basin. Figure A1 compares
the Kelvin wave calculated using the two datasets, forcing indices, which show similar
K
MJO
,
interannual variability. Individual Kelvin wave forcing
1 S
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2002 2441 ZHANG AND GOTTSCHALCK
F
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. A1. Time–longitude diagrams for K
MJO
based on (a) the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and (b) ERS
satellite data.
2442 V
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events are, however, stronger in the ERS data. The com- parison lends confidence that, for the purpose of this study,
the NCEP–NCAR data are sufficiently accurate as validated against the ERS data.
APPENDIX B
Comparisons between Periods Prior to and Post-1980
It has been an unwritten rule of thumb in the climate community that the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis is more reliable
for the period after than before 1979, especially in the Tropics. Assimilation of satellite observations after 1979 is
believed to be the main reason for this. A piece of evidence of inhomogeneity in the data qual- ity of the
NCEP–NCAR reanalysis is a suspicious jump near 1979 in the anomalies of 100-hPa mean temper- ature in the
Tropics (Fig. B1) and at midlatitudes (Kis- tler et al. 2001). Also apparent in Fig. B1 is the obvious discrepancies in
interdecadal fluctuations in the trop- ical mean temperature before and after 1979. Although there are no similar
problems in the surface wind data, the discontinuity in the temperature time series raises a sufficient warning on the
quality of the reanalysis before 1979. For this reason, we emphasize in this study results based on the reanalysis data
for the period post-1979.
Without any direct evidence showing problems in the surface winds before 1979, we should not discard the data
entirely. The same lag correlation as shown in Fig. 4 was calculated for the period 1950–78. The results are shown
in Fig. B2. They are astonishingly different from Fig. 4. Reasons for the discrepancies are unclear. Slingo et al.
(1999) found that the correlation between a global MJO index and Nin ̃o SST is weak in general but slightly greater
for the period from the mid-1970s to the present than the earlier period of the data record. They noted a substantially
lower amount of MJO ac- tivity prior to the mid-1970s in another global model reanalysis data. They speculated that
the cause may be
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. B1. Monthly mean time series of anomalous temperature at 100 hPa averaged over 30 N
and 30 S from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis.
15 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
the decadal timescale warming of the ocean surface. Weaker MJO activities prior to 1979 may lead to a re- duction
in correlation between equatorial SST and Kelvin wave forcing of the MJO in the western Pacific. But they can
hardly explain the completely different correlation patterns. Because the SST data are generally regarded as reliable
for detecting the bulk features of ENSO, two possible explanations are left for the dis- crepancies. One is an
inhomogeneity in the data quality, namely, less reliable data from the early period. The other is interdecadal
variability in ENSO (eg, Wang 1995; Kirtman and Schopf 1998) or the MJO (Slingo et al. 1999), or both. At this
stage, we are in no position to credibly evaluate which one is more probable.
APPENDIX C
Tests of the Lag Correlation
The significance of the lag correlation discussed in section 3b is tested here. First, the possibility that the
correlation patterns shown in Fig. 4 are accidental is ruled out through Monte Carlo simulations. A random time
series was constructed by randomly choosing a starting date from a Nin ̃o SST time series and letting the end of the
time series continue on to its beginning. Such a random time series shares the same probability distribution and
autocorrelation as the original Nin ̃o SST time series. Lag correlation between and the ran-
K
MJO dom time serious was then calculated. In each Monte Carlo
simulation, the number of realizations ranges from 100 to 5000. They all yield the same results. Shown by the dotted
line in Fig. C1a is, as an example, the prob- ability distribution function (PDF) of correlation coef- ficients for at 160
E and random time series
K
MJO based on Nin ̃o-3 SST from a simulation of 2000 real- izations. The PDF is confined
between 0.3 and 0.3. This PDF is independent of the longitude of , the
K
MJO Nin ̃o SST time series on which the random time series
were generated, and the lag between the two.
Next, the possibility that the lag correlation in Fig.
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. B2. Same as Fig. 4 except for the period 1950–79.
4 sensitively depends on a particular sampling of the time series of out by conducting K
MJO a bootstrapping and SST for 1980–99 is ruled test. In this test, a randomly chosen period of time (12–72
months) was removed each calculation from both (realization) time series of of lag K
correlation. MJO
and SST in The same result was obtained for the number of realizations ranging from 100 to 5000. An example of
the PDF of correlation coefficients is shown in Fig. C1a as the solid line, which is for K
MJO
at 160 E and Nin ̃o-3
SST at a lag of 10 months from a test of 2000 re- alizations with 18 months removed. This PDF is nar- rowly
centered at correlation of 0.6 and indicates that the correlation is positive at the 100% confidence level. Figure C1b
shows the correlation coefficients corre- sponding to the maximum PDF and the entire range of the tions PDF of the
for lag K
from MJO
at the 160 same E and bootstrapping Nin ̃o-3 SST test. as func- Av- eraged correlation patterns from these tests are
all the same as those shown in Fig. 4.
2002 2443 ZHANG AND GOTTSCHALCK
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2444 V
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. C1. (a) Dotted line: PDF of correlation coefficients from Monte Carlo simulations (2000 realizations) for random time
series based on Nin ̃o-3 SST and at 160 E leading by 10 months. Solid line:
K
MJO PDF of correlation coefficients from a bootstrapping test (2000 re- alizations) for correlation between
Nin ̃o-3 SST and at 160 E
K
MJO leading by 10 months with time periods of 18 months randomly
removed from both time series. (b) The solid curve is the correlation coefficients corresponding to their maximum PDF as
function of lags from the same bootstrapping test and the vertical bars indicate the full ranges of the PDFs.
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15 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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