Gaia versus Thanatia: the twilight of the Earth’s

mineral resources
Alicia Valero
October 9-10, 2014
II Congreso del Pico del Petróleo (Barbastro)

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Gaia versus Thanatia: the twilight of the Earth’s
resources

C t t
Contents
Facts
Questioning
Q ti i th myths
the th
surrounding scarcity of
mineral resources
Thanatia as the twilight
of the Earth’s mineral
resources
Final reflections
1. KNOWN FACTS…
Exponential consumption trend of minerals
 Exponential consumption trend of minerals

Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing
 Almost the entire Periodic Table is being used
…

Source: Adapted from different sources

New materials for the Green Economy

ICT´s PGM, Au, Sn, Nb, Ta

Biomass P
Wind permanent magnets: Nd, Dy, Pr, Sm and Co
Photovoltaics In, Te, Ga, Ge, As, Gd, Cd
Compact Fluorescent Lamps & Leds:Y,
Leds:Y Eu,
Eu Tb In
In, Sn
Sn,
Hg, Ga
Batteries Ni, Mn, Co, Cd, La, Ce, Li
High Efficient Turbines (aero &stat) Co, Nb, V, Re
Electric Vehicles La,Ce, permanent magnets,
SOFC H2 Pt Pd
Pt,
Catalysts Pt, La, Ce
Ce for polishing hard disks.
Nuclear In, Hf, Re, Zr, U
 Critical metals for the EU

Source: EC (2010). Critical Raw materials for the EU

 Example: In and PV

o Today only 0.1% of electricity supply but in 2050

11%. IEA
o Grid parity 1€/kWp
o New
N PV ttechnologies
h l i CdT
CdTe, C
CuInSe
I S 2,CuGaSe
C G S 2, CIGS
o 1 GW de GICS necesita 25–50 tm de In
Indium
critical
iti l Geological
94%

Ecological Economical
79% 56%

Technical
Political 59% 82%

Source: SunShot Vision Study U.S. Department of Energy, 2012 Source: Goessling-Reisemann ISIE 2011
 … Yet very little is being recycled

Source: Graedel et al. (2011) What Do We Know About Metal Recycling Rates? Journal of Industrial Ecology, 15, 355-366
 The case of Aluminium

RRecycling
li rates
t are increasing.
i i However
H d
demand
d increases
i att
an even higher rate
Recycling is not enough

Source: Gerber (2007): Strategy towards the red list from a business perspective
From availability to accessibility - insights into the results of an expert workshop on ``mineral raw material scarcity''
Environmental and social impacts
p

10 most poluted places in the

World (2000)
Environmental impacts
1. Chernobil (Ucrania)

Air 2. Dzerzhinsk (Rusia)

Water 3. Haina (República Dominicana)

L d
Landscape 4 Kabwe (Zambia)
4.

5. La Oroya (Perú)
Biodiversity
6. Linfen (China)

Climate change 7. Mailuu-Suu (Kirziguistán)

Wastes/Reserves 8. Norilsk (Rusia)

9. Ranipet (India)

o Impacts on local communities 10. Rudnaya Pristan (Rusia)

13
Environmental and social impacts

L Colosa
La C l (C l
(Colombia)
bi ) La aldea de Salave (Asturias)

14
 Facts

3.5 billion tons of metals and industrial minerals in 2008 =>at least 6x
more waste rock.

By 2050 Consumption= 5x current consumption => Demand for

p
important ones such as Au, Ag,
g Cu, Ni, Sn, Zn, Pb and Sb will be ggreater
than reserves (Halada, 2008).

Yet mining sector only contributes to 0

0.5%
5% direct employment and 0
0.9%
9%
of gross world product (Sampat, 2003).

Mi i uses between
Mining b t 8-10%
8 10% off global
l b l energy consumption
ti (IEA)

Responsible for 13% of global SO2 emissions

Source: Halada, K.; Shimada, M. & Ijima, K. Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050 Materials Transaction, 2008, 49, 402-410
Sampat, P. State of the World 2003 Scrapping mining dependence World Resources Institute, 2003, 111
Reflections

Can Gaia absorb all environmental impacts associated with

Man’ss development?
Man

Are there enough energy and mineral resources to sustain

unlimited growth?

Will ingenuity through technological development outrun any

existing and/or future problems?

40 years after “The Limits to Growth” by

Meadows et al.
2. QUESTIONING THE MYTHS
SURROUNDING SCARCITY OF
MINERAL RESOURCES…
RESOURCES
Can Gaia absorb all environmental impacts associated with
p
Man’s development?

Declining ore grades are forcing higher impacts on environment. The low
hanging fruits have already been collected. => A depth of “r” implies
an extraction of 1/3 r3.

The Nimby effect: Not in my backyard!

r

Remote areas, Rain forests, Arctic and the permafrost periglacial

cape. Extremely deep mining and oceanic mining.
r

Underdeveloped countries
OLYMPIC MOTTO:

CITIUS, ALTIUS, FORTIUS

MINING MOTTO:

Quicker, Deeper, Stronger

 Are there enough energy and mineral resources to
sustain unlimited growth?

YES!? bbutt exponential

YES!?, ti l growth
th requires
i exponentially
ti ll new mines
i andd
exponential amounts of energy, water, environmental, social and
economic impacts.

Energy may come from the Sun or from Nuclear fusion in the long term.
term

The crust is plenty of minerals: Mass does not disappear BUT disperses.

Can Man afford to extract critical elements from Barerock? At what

cost?
t?
Are there enough energy and mineral resources to
sustain unlimited growth?

A mineral deposit is a
rarity in the Earth’s crust.

Only when a combination

of natural processes has
worked together to
produce an enrichment, is
an ore to be found.

These complex process

operate very slowly All concentrated mineral resources of
compared with the life- fuel and non-fuel origin represent only
span of humans. 0.001% of the Earth's upper continental
crust total mass
21
Will ingenuity through technological development
outrun anyy existingg and/or
/ future pproblems?

The role
Th l off ttechnology
h l iin th
the minerals
i l iindustry
d t h has
allowed to save energy and reach greater depths and
more remote sites:

o Breakthrough in mineral exploration: emergence of

geophysics drilling,
geophysics, drilling remote sensing,
sensing bio-prospecting,
bio-prospecting etc.
etc
o Increasing mechanisation in underground mining allows
to reach greater depths.
o In open cut mining: increasing truck sizes, safer and
cheaper explosives and cheap diesel fuel
o Refining: flotation, gravity and densemedia separation,
carbon-in-pulp and heap leaching solvent extraction,
electrowinning…
Will ingenuity through technological development
outrun any existing and/or future problems?

Two effects on the energy consumption associated with

mining. Which is winning the race?

Technological
development

Declining ore
grades

23
 Will ingenuity through technological development
outrun anyy existingg and/or
/ future pproblems?
Ore grade decline in Australia’s main commodities (Mudd, 2010)
40 2 600
2,600
Copper (%Cu)
(Ag, 1884 - 3,506 g/t)
Gold (g/t)
35 2,275
Lead (%Pb)
s)
Pb, Zn, Au, Ni, U, Diamonds

Zinc (%Zn)
30 (kg/tU3O8)
Uranium (kg/t U3 O 8 ) 1,950

Nickel (%Ni)

25 Diamonds (carats/t) 1,625

Ore Grade (Ag))

Silver (g/t)

20 1,300
Ore Grades (Cu, P

O
15 975

10 650

5 325

0 0
1840 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005

Source: Mudd, G. The Ultimate Sustainability of Mining – Linking Key Mega-Trends with 21st Century Challenges
Sustainable mining conference, 2010
 Will ingenuity through technological development
outrun anyy existingg and/or
/ future pproblems?

According
A di t our studies
to t di carried
i d outt for
f gold
ld (Domínguez
(D í and
d
Valero, 2013):
o Although progress in technology has been made, in most
cases energy requirements are increasing, because the main
variable is the ore grade.
o Technology
gy cannot in g
general overcome the rising
g energy
gy
demand for gold mining

Source: Domínguez, A. & Valero, A. Global gold mining: Is technological learning overcoming the declining in ore
grades? Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management, 2013, 1, 85-10
Answers in conclusion

We cannot overcome the limits of the Planet

We cannot overcome the Second Law of

Thermodynamics: Energy degrades and mass
disperses

Urgent tools to rigorously assess the

degradation velocity of the Earth’s resources is
required: A planetary life cycle assessment
3 THANATIA AS THE TWILIGHT OF
3.
THE EARTH
EARTH’S
S RESOURCES
Planetary LCA

CRADLE GRAVE
THANATIA as a possible end of the Earth’s
resources.

Thanatia
Th ti as iindicated
di t d bby th
the Greek
G k“ ”
represents death.

We can imagine a possible state of the Earth when all

commercially exploitable resources have been
consumedd and
d dispersed.
di d A possible
ibl endd to
t th
the
“anthropocene period”.

Thanatia, constitutes the starting point for assessing

the loss of mineral endowment on Earth.
 What is Thanatia?

THANATIA ATMOSPHERE
An atmospheric injection of about 2,000 GtC.
carbon dioxide content of 683 ppm, a mean surface temperature of 17 ºC (peak carbon dioxide
induced warming of 3.7 ºC above preindustrial temperatures),
A pressure of 1.021 bar and a composition, on a volume basis of 78.8% N2, 20.92% O2, 0.93% Ar and
0.0015% of trace gases.

THANATIA HYDROSPHERE
freshwater amounts about 2.5% of global water.
freshwater is expected to increase its content of nitrogen, phosphorus, heavy metals, organic substances,
sulphates and other components as population grows and climate changes.
M t off Ice
Most I CCaps melted
lt d
The changes in freshwater composition should not affect significantly the composition of the ocean.
Therefore, the composition of the exhausted hydrosphere can be approximated with high confidence to
that of seawater.

THANATIA CRUST
The upper continental crust can be approximated to the average mineralogical composition of the
current earth’s crust. The resulting crust is composed of 292 common minerals
o All resources have been extracted and dispersed
o All fossil fuels have been burned.
Source: Valero D., A.; Valero, A. & Gómez, J. B. The crepuscular planet. A model for the exhausted continental crust Energy, 2011, 36, 694 – 707;
Valero, A.; Agudelo, A. & Valero D., A. The Crepuscular Planet. Part I: A model for the exhausted atmosphere Proceedings of ECOS 2009, 2009
30
 The Crepuscular Continental Crust
Abundance, Abundance, Abun dance,
Name Name Name
mass % mass % mass %
QuarzResults: 2,29E+01
, Forsterite 6,96E-03
, Helvine/ Helvite 8,05E-05
,
Albite 1,35E+01 Hedenbergite 6,82E-03 Strontianite 7,88E-05
Oligoclase 1,19E+01 Chalcopyrite 6,64E-03 Dispers ed Tb 7,00E-05
Orthoclase 1,18E+01 Phlogopi te 6,62E-03 Perovs kite 6,94E-05
Andesine
Dimensions of the matrix: 324x78
Paragonite
5,46E+00
3,96E+00
Witherite
Pentlandite
5,99E-03
5,75E-03
Tridymit
Cryolite
6,30E-05
4,95E-05
Bioti te 3 82E+00
3,82E+00 Cordierite 5 57E 03
5,57E-03 Sulphur 4 72E 05
4,72E-05

Augite
Adjustment of the main 78 elements apart from O and H.
Hydromuscovite/ Illite 3,03E+00
3,00E+00
Pyrolusite
Fayalite
4,90E-03
4,77E-03
Orpiment
Brookite
4,55E-05
4,21E-05
Hornblende (F e) 2,63E+00 Anatase 4,46E-03 Eudialyte 4,04E-05
Labradorite 2,50E+00 Francolite 4,35E-03 Carnallite 4,03E-05
Nontronite 1,93E+00
1,93E 00 Tourmaline 4,30E-03
4,30E 03 Xenotime 3,70E-05
3,70E 05
Opal 1,24E+00 Orthite-Ce / Allanite 4,05E-03 Dawsonite 3,62E-05
Ripidolite 1,20E+00 Lepidolite 3,99E-03 Wolframite 3,21E-05
Almandine 1,04E+00 Gedrite 3,23E-03 Dispers ed Lu 3,10E-05
Muscovite 1,01E+00 Beryl 3,22E-03 Dispers ed Tm 3,00E-05
Sillimanite 9,97E-01 Pyrophyllite 3,22E-03 Stibnite 2,75E-05
Epidote 9,06E-01 Rhodonite 3,04E-03 Copper 2,48E-05
Kaolinite 8,36E-01 Magnesite 3,02E-03 Cerussite 2,21E-05
Calcite 8,00E-01 Chloritoid 3,00E-03 Blomstrandite/ Betafite 2,05E-05
Magnetite 7,95E-01 Ilmenorutile 2,96E-03 Sodalite 1,98E-05
Riebeck ite 5,74E-01 Ul exite 2,92E-03 Britholite 1,71E-05
Beidellite 5 10E-01
5,10E 01 Di adochic Ce 2 83E-03
2,83E 03 Ferrotantalite 1 58E-05
1,58E 05
Ilmenite 4,71E-01 Jacobsite 2,72E-03 Ramsayite/ Lorenzenite 1,24E-05
Titanite 4,46E-01 Cl ementite 2,64E-03 Anglesite 1,16E-05
Clinochlore 4,37E-01 Kerni te 2,61E-03 Greenock ite 1,16E-05
Sepiolite 3,48E-01 Bastnasite 2,54E-03 Chondrodite 1,12E-05
Aegirine 3,04E-01 Colemanite 2,46E-03 Axinite -Fe 1,10E-05

Source: Valero D., A.; Valero, A. & Gómez, J. B. The crepuscular planet. A model for the exhausted continental
crust Energy, 2011, 36, 694 - 707
 Thanatia as the twilight of the Earth’s mineral
resources

By postulating Thanatia we can quantify a thermodynamic limit

of the Earth, and thus assess its Mineral Capital and its
degradation velocity.

3
2
Thanatia as the twilight of the Earth’s
mineral resources

From GRAVE to CRADLE

In order to assess depletion
Replacement is the key! => What would it cost
to replace with current technology the mineral
wealth of the planet that Man extracts, uses
and finally disperses?

33
 Exergy/ Exergy/
Exergy cost Cradle to entry gate Entry gate to exit gate Exergy cost

Useful products
Manuf.
costs

Product
Man-made stock manufacture

Man-made mining and

refining process

Recycling
Mining and
refining costs
Grave to cradle Exit g
gate to g
grave Use and
di
dispose off costs
materials
Recycling of
materials

Fuels Minerals

Mineral deposits Landfills

Natural stock
Materials
dispersion and
Natural conc. and pollution
Avoided costs/
mineral bonus refining process

Crepuscular Earth / Thanatia

Reference
Environment
Zero Exergy

Source: Valero D., A. & Valero, A. From Grave to Cradle A Thermodynamic Approach for Materials Life cycle
Accounting for Abiotic Resource Depletion. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2013, 17, 43-52
 35

Grave-cradleDE approach
LA TUMBA A LA CUNA

How much is the loss of the mineral exergy endowment of the Earth?
12,000
10,899 Mtoe
Mtoe
Mineral smelting
and refining
1,336 Mtoe Mineral mining
10,000
, and conc.
conc
Coal 138 Mtoe

8,000

6,000
5,308 Mtoe Natural gas

Potash
3,811 Mtoe
4,000
Iron
Potash

Iron Oil
2,000

Aluminium
Aluminium

0
Exergy bonus Exergy bonus with recycling Fossil fuels

Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing
 36

Grave-cradleDE approach
LA TUMBA A LA CUNA

How much is the loss of the mineral exergy

gy endowment
of the Earth?
Mining and
concentration Smelting and
1% refining
6%
Coal
26%
Non-fuel
N f l
minerals
33%

Oil
Natural gas 25%
18%

Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing
SETEA: New system of environmental
accounts

Would you sell the towers of

a cathedral at the price of its
constituent bricks?

GDP and other economic

indicators do not take into
accountt the
th fact
f t that
th t future
f t
generations won’t have those
“monuments” created by
resources)
Nature (mineral resources).

We propose a new system of

environmental accounts
based on the UN’s SEEA =>
SETEA (thermoeconomic
accounts)
t )
The exergy countdown - Reserves

5,000,000
B*, ktoe

4,500,000 Oil - 2012

Coal - 2059
4,000,000

3,500,000
Natural gas - 2024
3,000,000

2,500,000

Potassium - 2072
2,000,000
Al i i
Aluminium - 2050
1,500,000

1,000,000
Iron - 2040

500,000

Rest of minerals
0
1890 1940 1990 2040 2090 2140 2190
Year

38
Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing
The exergy countdown - Resources

35 000 000
35,000,000
B*, ktoe

30,000,000 Potassium - 2272

25,000,000

20 000 000
20,000,000

15,000,000

Coal - 2159
10,000,000

Natural gas - 2069

Oil - 2027
000 000
5,000,000
Aluminium - 2088
Iron - 2115

Rest commodities
0
1890 1940 1990 2040 2090 2140 2190 2240 2290
Year

39
Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing
The exergy countdown - Resources

80,000
B*, ktoe
B

Copper - 2068
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000
Cobalt - 2073
Tantalum (R.B.) - 2046
30,000 Gold ((R.B.)) - 2001

20,000
Nickel sulph.
2033

10,000 Zirconium - 2006 Zinc - 2062

0
1890 1940 1990 2040 2090 2140 2190 2240 2290
Year

40
Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing
 Theoretical Data Empirical Data
Reserves Peak $R^2$ W.R. Peak $R^2$ Observed Peak
Mercury 1960 0.56 1965 0.18 1971
Tin 1979 0.53 1986 0.63 2007
Silver 1995 0.44 1999 0.52 -
Gold 1994 0.65 2001 0.74 2001
Antimony 1998 0.56 2006 0.64 -
Zirconium 2003 0.89 2006 0.89 -
Oil 2012 0.97 2027 0.97 2008 (2011)
Lithium 2015 0.86 2033 0.89 -
Nickel laterites 2017 0.98 2033 0.98 -
Nickel sulphides 2017 0.98 2033 0.98 -
Wolfram 2007 0.89 2036 0.87 -
Molybdenum 2018 0.95 2040 0.95 2004 WR. Peak
Bismuth 2015 0 87
0.87 2042 0 86
0.86 - may appear
Tantalum 2034 0.85 2046 0.85 -
Rhenium 2022 0.95 2054 0.94 - before end of
Uranium 2033 0.72 2061 0.70 2006 21st century!!
Zinc 1999 0.92 2062 0.98 -
C
Copper 2012 0 95
0.95 2068 0 98
0.98 -
Natural gas 2024 1.00 2069 1.00 -
Ti-rutile 2028 0.89 2069 0.86 -
Cobalt 2042 0.87 2073 0.88 -
Cadmium 1996 0.98 2076 0.90 -
Phosphate rock 2031 0.92 2080 0.89 -
REE 2092 0.98 2104 0.98 -
Ti-ilmenite 2040 0.96 2082 0.96 -
Beryllium 2082 0.40 -
Aluminium 2050 0.98 2088 0.98 -
Lead 1989 0.82 2110 0.82 -
Iron 2040 0.91 2115 0.92 -
Manganese 2007 0.87 2119 0.81 -
Vanadium 2067 0.83 2129 0.83 -
Chromium 2015 0 96
0.96 2149 0 97
0.97 -
Coal 2059 0.95 2159 0.95 -
Arsenic 1971 0.29 2159 0.31 -
Potassium 2072 0.91 2272 0.88 -
Source: A. Valero and A. Valero (2014) . Thanatia: the Destiny of the Earth’s mineral resources. World Scientific Publishing
The exergy countdown - Conclusions

Mostt commodities
M diti may peak
k before
b f th
the
end of this century

Considering world resources instead of

reserves shifts the peak 50 years on
average

Some commodities have already peaked!

4. FINAL REFLECTIONS
Final reflections

1) Our planet is headed toward

p
mineral depletion ((best ore
grades have been extracted
and are dispersed in the
biosphere)

This is not fatalism but

science. It is Thermodynamics
Final reflections

2) This progression is unyielding

and the human action is
accelerating it.

The way back can only be attained by the

Sun´s
Sun s action and the internal heat of Earth
during eons.

Yet technology exhausts mineral

resources over human time scales.
Final reflections

3) This progression could be

decelerated byy an appropriate
pp p
and global management of
our abiotic resources.

Global vision and global decisions are

required. Unfortunately these needs are
far removed from the current political
thinking.
Final reflections

4) Efficiency
Effi i in
i th
the use off materials
t i l andd
their systematic recycling are mostly
needed but they are insufficient.
insufficient

We need to place limits on greed and the

plundering of non-renewable materials
currently considered as inexhaustible and
cheap.
Final reflections

4) “Efficiency
“Effi i and
dSSufficiency”
ffi i ” are b
both
th
needed, this implies that “Technology and
Ethics” are both required.
Ethics required

Technology is never sufficient and in

many cases it is more destructive than
creative.
Final reflections

5)) The Circular Economy y is a

beautiful myth, but the Second
Law of Thermodynamics is
unavoidable: Thanatia

“In each material cycle

something is lost because one
cannot afford complete and
cheap recycling. We can only
yearn for a Spiral Economy,
Technosphere

with the largest number of

t
turns, but
b t iin th
the end
d spirals
i l
get diluted into Thanatia” Geosphere

We propose a ffractal
W t l ttree ffor
each chemical element.
Final reflections

6) The
Th continuous
ti declining
d li i off ore grades
d
induces an increase in the energy,
environmental and social costs of
extracting the next tonnage of minerals
that irremediablyy induce an acceleration
of the Planet’s deterioration.

This acceleration can be rigorously

calculated in kJ units applying the
proposed thermodynamic theory.
Final reflections

7) There
Th iis an “E
“Exergy C
Countdown”,
td ” th
thatt
allows quantifying the degradation rate of
our Planet
Planet´ss mineral endowment in exergy
units.

The accounting of this loss and the sense

of having a not
not-so-far
so far expiry date gives
maturity to humankind and supports
improved management of those remaining
resources. This vision could even affect
our world´s perception.
Final reflections

It iis th
the h
hour ffor h
humanity
it tto b
begin
i tto
adequately manage its non-renewable
resources with intelligence and order
order, so
that however finite they can be accounted
for,, as can their loss

TIME IS RUNNING OUT,

LET’S FLIP THE HOUR GLASS!!!
Sustainability is a journey, Thanatia a destiny!

On youtube (Spanish): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6qi4bKRPe0

On youtube (English): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76eUJxPaqFU

53
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