ISSN:1991-8178
Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Bina Nusantara University, Jl. KH Syahdan 9, Jakarta, 11480, Indonesia
Corresponding Author: Iyus Maulana Mulyawan, 1Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Bina
Nusantara University, Jl. KH Syahdan 9, Jakarta, 11480, Indonesia
E-mail: aiyus_mm@yahoo.com
232 Iyus Maulana Mulyawan et al, 2015
Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 9(7) April 2015, Pages: 231-234
data pattern; adjusted exponential smoothing for transporter data and supplier criteria. Data for this
Trend and Seasonal Variation: Winters seasonal research were collected by doing some interviews
models for the data pattern with those involved on Logistic area such as the
In order to reduce logistic cost, distribution Logistic Manager, Logistic supervisor, Logistic staff,
system shall be optimize by minimize cost and and others at the agriculture machinery and industrial
optimize type and amount of transport modes. equipment enterprise.
Distribution costs are determined based on the Last two years customer demand data on East
delivery process carried out internally or use third Java used to determine demand forecasting model for
party transporter. If distribution using third party 2015 to achieve first objective. Rate delivery and
transporter, costs calculated based on the rate type distribution modes are used to construct linear
delivered by the shipping company (Giani, G., et al., programming to optimize distribution system. Then,
2013). With Linier programming optimize type and further interview was taken to determine supplier
number transport modes result distribution cost more assessment criteria.
lower. Linear Programming is one of the Operations
Research techniques most widely used and well RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
known.
In order to get reliable third party transporter (i) Determine Demand forecasting 2015 as
and minizime rate distribution cost, it is important to Inventory Control Tool:
improve purchasing system on supplier selection The customer demand history last two years,
with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), to make a shows that customer demand increase 13 unit in
choice from two or more alternatives, to reduce 2013, increase trend used as enterprise decision to
uncertainty and doubt about alternatives to allow increase the sales target in next future (April 2014 to
reason can be made in the choice between these March 2015). Test data pattern conducted to
options (Madan, A.K., M.S, Ranganth, 2014). determine the appropiate demand forecasting pattern
on the data, whether a horizontal pattern (single
Methodology: exponential smoothing for stationary data pattern),
The literature review and previous research inclination/trend(double exponential smoothing for
conducted by Panayotova (Panayotova, G., S.L. trend data), or seasonal (eksponential smoothing
Slavova, 2010) have been used to observe the logistic adjusted) for trend and seasonal variation. Then, test
area. Survey research by interview with stake holder conducted by taking the results of the smallest error
was also used to get more information for this value (MSE, MAD, and MAPE) of the 3 pattern
research. The survey was done at the agriculture demand forecasting by Minitab 17 software, as can
machinery and industrial equipment to get be seen in Table 1.
information on the demand history, third party
The comparison table of error value show that Further experiment, need to determine the smallest
the single exponential smoothing method has the error value (alpha) by tests alpha value of 0.1 to
smallest error rate compared to others. This is shown 0.9.The smallest error value of the MSDis on the
by the value of MSD = 19.4147 and MAD = 3.533. alpha value of 0.1. It will use in forecasting
Based on the results of the test data patterns in calculation with single exponential smoothing
customer demand is stationary. Stationary data method, found demand forecasting for April 2014 is
patterns shall use exponential smoothing method. 14 units, as shown on Fig.1.
Service Delivery
Company Selection
Fig. 2: Hierarchical Structure and Weight Results for Delivery Service Company Selection
Cost criteria was the most important to consider the project was implementing3 methods, to
in selection process, with the highest weight determine the optimal amount of inventory, the type
importance, 42.5%, compare to the three others. And and amount of transport that should be used, and the
PT. XXX are the most valuable company with the supplier or delivery company must be selected.
highest weight, 56.9%, compare to PT. YYY and PT. Demand forecasting for retail found a level of
ZZZ. forecasting accuracy with single exponential
smoothing method, with forecast demand was 14
Summary: units. Linear programming methodleads to the
Tore duce the cost of logistics, for agriculture conclusion that the use of Fuso trucks for delivery
machinery and industrial equipment company, then of14units of forklifts to East Java is the most require
234 Iyus Maulana Mulyawan et al, 2015
Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 9(7) April 2015, Pages: 231-234
minimum distribution cost. AHP shows that cost is Madan, A.K., M.S, Ranganth, 2014. Multiple
the most importance variable in decision making Criteria Decision Making Techniques in
process on company selection (who’s going to Manufacturing Industries-A Review Study with the
distribute the products), compare to variable quality, Application of Fuzzy, International Conference of
speed, and response, and 1 from 3 company is Advance and Inovation. Department of mechanical
selected as the most valuable company. Engineering, Delhi Technological University, Delhi
India.
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