1
Next Day Power Forecast for Grid-tied Photovoltaic Systems
Macabebe, Erees Queen B.1, Creayla, Christine May C.2
Electronics, Computer and Communications Engineering Department
Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines
emacabebe@ateneo.edu1
cmccreayla@gmail.com2
Abstract – The main challenge in solar photovoltaic (PV) power
production is its variability due to seasonal changes and variations in
the sun’s irradiance. This becomes an issue in management of solar
PV energy production not just for system grid operators but also for
energy consumers with installed PV systems. Forecasting is becoming
an essential tool in the increasing integration of solar energy systems
into the electrical network. It is done by gathering daily solar irradiance
data which are then used as an input for a machine learning algorithm
developed for forecasting. Machine learning provides a framework to
estimate a model of the time dependency from the observed data. This
study evaluates one of the algorithms developed for prediction – the
random forest. This algorithm trains the input data independently and
combines them to make the overall prediction. The forecasting model
established from the training set, and then the forecasting results are
compared with the test set proving the validity of the model with a
minimal percentage error. This provides a useful result for next day
prediction of solar PV energy production.
Keywords – solar irradiance, machine learning, random forest
I. INTRODUCTION
Photovoltaics (PV) for electricity generation is the fastest-
growing energy technology since 2002, experiencing an average
annual increase of 48%[1]. Power generation from solar energy
systems is highly variable due to its dependence on
meteorological conditions. The increasing use of solar power as a
source of electricity has led to increased interest in forecasting
solar radiation. Solar irradiance forecasting is needed for
operational planning, switching sources, energy trading, planning
reserve usage, as well as peak load matching. Also, the prediction
of solar yields will become more and more important for utilities,
which have to integrate increasing amounts of solar power,
especially for countries where legislation encourage the
deployment of solar power system.
The Philippines receives a sizeable amount of solar radiation.
In fact, the country can harness the sun’s energy as its radiation
across the country has a power generation potential of 4.5 to 5.5
kWh per square meter per day [2]. With that, every on-grid private
household and company can utilize the power of the sun with solar
panels on their own roofs. This can be realized with the
introduction of the Net-Metering scheme, the first non-fiscal
incentive mechanism fully implemented under the Renewable
Energy (RE) Act of 2008. Through the installation of solar
photovoltaic (PV) panels up to 100 kW, house owners and
commercial establishments can now partly satisfy their electricity
demand by themselves and excess power generated from the solar
PV installation will be delivered to the local distribution grid of
the electric distribution utility and will be used to offset the end-
user’s electricity consumption. In other words, end-users become
“prosumers” or producers and consumers of electricity at the same
time. In effect, end-users are able to generate savings on their
electricity bill and protect themselves against rising electricity
prices [2].
To facilitate the penetration of PV energy, forecasting
methods and techniques have been used. Numerous algorithms
have been applied to predict solar radiation and power based on
time-series data and meteorological data. Time-series models
predicted future solar power by computing the conditional
expectation based on its present and past samples and
meteorological models frequently considers input parameters
including temperature, clearness, dust, and relative humidity for
predicting solar power [3].
Utilities restrict the contribution from renewables, because,
unlike electricity demand, renewable energy generation is
unpredictable, and complicates advance planning of the grid’s
generator dispatch schedule.
This study aims to accomplish the following:
1. To propose a forecasting method using a machine
learning algorithm – the random forest. Many studies
have been made about forecasting using different
techniques [4]. However, is it possible to do it using a
machine learning algorithm?
2. To predict the next-day solar irradiance for a site-specific
photovoltaic system power production. Several
forecasting studies focus on single PV systems or power
plants and only recently that site-specific forecast
approach have been gaining attention [5], [6]. Is this
forecasting approach highly applicable?
3. To provide an automated prediction models with the use
of an android and a web application for advance planning
of electricity generation and consumption of a grid-tied
PV system. By integrating the said prediction model, will
it help in increasing efficiency and encourage broader
adoption of distributed generation from renewable
energy sources?
II. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
A. PV System
A solar photovoltaic (PV) system is a system that converts
solar energy to electrical energy through photovoltaic effect. It is
a process in which two dissimilar materials in close contact
produce an electrical voltage when struck by light. Solar PV
systems can be classified into two groups: stand-alone solar PV
system and grid-tied solar PV systems.
Stand-alone solar PV systems are those that are isolated from
the electric distribution grid. These kind of systems tend to
become feasible in locations which are far from electrical
distribution networks. Grid-tied solar PV systems, on the other
hand, are considered as the simplest solar PV design because they
 2

are directly coupled to the electric distribution grid and do not

require battery storage. For sites with reliable grid power, Grid-
tied solar PV systems are usually the logical system choice [6].
B. Solar Irradiance and Power Output
Solar irradiance is defined as the amount of electromagnetic
energy incident on a surface per unit time and per unit area. The
energy emitted by the Sun passes through space until it is
intercepted by planets, other celestial objects, or interstellar gas
and dust. The intensity of solar radiation striking these objects is
determined by a physical law known as the inverse square law.
Only about 40% (general level) of the solar energy intercepted at
the top of Earth’s atmosphere passes through to the surface. The
proportion is different under different weather conditions: this
proportion is greater than 40% in sunny days, approximately equal
to 40–50% in cloudy days and less than 40% in overcast days. The
solar constant GSC is the energy from the Sun, per unit time
received on a unit area of surface perpendicular to the direction of
the Sun’s rays, at mean Earth-Sun distance, outside the
atmosphere. The World Metrological Organization suggests a
value of 1367 W/m2 [8].
Solar irradiance includes extraterrestrial irradiance G0 and
surface irradiance GS. Extraterrestrial irradiance refers to the
upper bound irradiance which is not affected by the aerosphere
and weather conditions but depends on the Earth’s rotation and
revolution. Extraterrestrial irradiance is related to the latitude, the
Figure 1. Extraterrestrial irradiance, surface irradiance and solar irradiance
Sun elevation angle, date and the time of the day. Ignoring some difference; (a) Extraterrestrial irradiance and surface irradiance; (b) Solar
minor factors such as polar motion, the precession of the Earth’s irradiance difference [8].
axis and leap years, extraterrestrial irradiance changes yearly. For
a certain location, considering the effects of different day of one In Figure 1, it can be observed that the solar irradiance
year and different time of one day, the corresponding difference Gd is small and has similar shape under sunny days
extraterrestrial irradiance G0 can be calculated from Formula (1) (2010.03.11, 2010.03.12). In contrast, Gd is larger and has more
[7]: inflections on cloudy days (2010.03.09, 2010.03.10) than sunny
days. In other words, it means that the change of G d is closely
related to the weather conditions. The analysis of Gd related to
360𝑛
𝐺𝑂 = 𝐺𝑆𝐶 (1 + 0.33𝑐𝑜𝑠
365
) (𝑐𝑜𝑠𝛿 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜔 + 𝑠𝑖𝑛𝛿 𝑠𝑖𝑛𝜑) (1) different weather conditions can lead and help us to extract more
information from the measured data of surface solar irradiance G s
where GSC is solar constant, n is the date sequence number in one year, n ∈ and the calculated data of corresponding extraterrestrial solar
[1,365], δ is solar declination, φ is latitude, ω is solar hour angle. irradiance G0 by finding and selecting suitable mathematic
parameters which can reflect these correlative variation
In the transmission process of solar radiation from the upper characteristics.
bound to the Earth’s surface, there will be an amount of Due to the strong correlation between the weather conditions
attenuation because of the absorption, scattering and reflection of and irradiance, and the pattern observed, the weather conditions
the atmosphere. The degree of attenuation is related to various and other meteorological parameters can reflect the changes of
factors such as the amount of clouds, cloud form, cloud thickness, irradiance and can be considered as the input of the forecasting
water vapor, and aerosols. Therefore the surface irradiance at a model. These parameters include ambient temperature [9],
certain location is less than its corresponding extraterrestrial relative humidity, etc.
irradiance. The surface irradiance changes randomly and these Research in the last decades has concentrated on forecasting
changes are closely related to the atmospheric motion. The solar irradiation [3], [8], [10], while few works focus on
difference between G0 extraterrestrial irradiance and G S surface prediction of PV production and even less on uncertainty
irradiance Gd (hereinafter referred to as solar irradiance difference estimation of the predictions. As in a solar panel at a fixed
Gd = G0 − GS) can reflect the weather conditions. To support these temperature, the power production is close linear depended on
claims, a study was done in China that shows the measured data global irradiance [11] , then predicting solar irradiance is not
of surface solar irradiance GS (from 2010.03.09 to 2010.03.12, expected to be very different from predicting PV power.
Kunming, Yunnan, China), corresponding extraterrestrial solar
irradiance G0 and solar irradiance difference Gd are shown in
Figure 1. C. Machine Learning for Forecasting
Solar irradiance forecasting is the basis of the power
prediction of PV generation. With the fast growth of solar PV
 3

generation in recent years, there is an increasing need for more

precise and applicable modeling, forecasting and prediction of
solar irradiance [3]. Nevertheless, several studies were already
done proposing methods for PV power forecasts in different
forecast horizons, and time scales [3], [4], [8]. Forecasting
demand is a crucial issue for driving efficient operations
management plans. The increasing availability of new demand
signals and large amounts of data is helping define robust and
efficient techniques that can infer the stochastic dependency
between past and future based on data. Selecting the appropriate
process and algorithms is very challenging.
Machine learning (ML) is a new approach used for
forecasting. It is the construction and study of systems that can
learn from data. Machine learning is being used across many
domains and functions [12] which includes forecasting and
provides a framework to estimate a suitable model of the time
dependency from observed data. Supervised learning helps in
modeling the relation between a set of input variables and one or
more output variables on the basis of a finite set of observations.
ML builds heavily on statistics. For example, when we train our
machine to learn, we have to give it a statistically significant
random sample as training data. If the training set is not random,
we run the risk of the machine learning patterns that aren’t
actually there. And if the training set is too small, we won’t learn
enough and may even reach inaccurate conclusions.
Figure 2. Connection of a grid-tied PV system
D. Random Forest Algorithm
Recently, Aznarte and al., [4] have evaluated two advanced This setup will gather reports on solar intensity in watts/m2
machine learning algorithms – Random Forest and Support every minute of every day. Traces of data from the setup will then
Vector Machine for forecasting. Regarding the proposed point be made available via android and web application. Also, obtained
forecast models, using the data obtained from a real, grid- historical meteorological data from the Manila Observatory for
connected PV power station located in France, they have shown the past 3 years will serve as our training set for the solar
that these models managed to properly predict sunny days up to a irradiance forecasting to establish correlation. Examples of
satisfactory accuracy degree. weather metrics include temperature, dew point, wind speed, sky
Another PV forecasting study by Sharma and al., [13], used cover, probability of precipitation, and relative humidity. In
an SVM-based machine learning algorithm provided a more addition to these metrics, we include the specific day of the year
accurate result than existing forecast-based methods. and time of the day as metrics, since daylight influences solar
intensity and varies throughout the year for a given location.
To generate our power output forecast model, we provide
III. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY four months of training data (October 2015 to January 2016) as
input, which includes solar intensity readings as well as weather
Weather forecast data and observational solar intensity data metrics.
for 6 months starting from September 2015 will be collected to be The random forest learning algorithm in this paper will then
used as training set and in verifying the accuracy of the algorithm. process the input data or build a tree in the forest by following
Observational solar intensity data, obtained from a grid-tied setup these steps [14]:
as shown in Figure 2 to be installed on the roof of the CTC Step 1. Obtain a sample of size N where N is the size of our
Building at Ateneo de Manila University, will be used. training set. Use this bootstrapped sample as the
training set for this tree.
Step 2. At each node of the tree randomly select m of our M
features. Select the best of these m features to split on.
(where m is a parameter of our Random Forest)
Step 3. Grow each tree to largest extent possible -- i.e. no
pruning.

The algorithm flow chart is shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Algorithm flow chart [14]
The random forest algorithm estimates test errors from
training samples while growing the forest. Such estimated test
error is very accurate in practice, with reasonable N.
This machine learning technique, automatically gives an
output function that computes solar intensity from weather
metrics, as well as the day of the year. We use the remaining 2
months of our data set to test the model’s accuracy. One benefit
of using machine learning to automatically generate prediction
models is that, in general, the more training data that is available,
the more accurate the model.
A representation of both observational and forecast weather
metrics as a time-series that changes due to changing weather
patterns and seasons will be shown. As stated earlier, solar
intensity depends on multiple weather metrics, which complicates
the task of developing an accurate prediction model. The high
dimensionality of the time-series data motivates our study using
machine learning techniques to develop solar intensity and power
output prediction models.
4
REFERENCES
[1] GlobalData, “Global Solar Photovoltaic Market Analysis and Forecasts
to 2020,” Analysis, no. MARCH, pp. 1–400, 2009.
[2] M. Dietrich, “Net-Metering Reference Guide: How to avail solar roof
tops and other renewables below 100 kW in the Philippines,” 2013.
[3] H. M. Diagne, M. David, P. Lauret, and J. Boland, “Solar irradiation
forecasting: state-of-the-art and proposition for future developments
for small-scale insular grids,” World Renew. Energy Forum 2012, pp.
1–8, 2012.
[4] B. Espinar, R. Girard, A. M. Moussa, B. Espinar, R. Girard, A. M.
Moussa, and G. Karinio-, “Photovoltaic Forecasting : A state of the art
To cite this version :,” 2013.
[5] A. Yona, T. Senjyu, and T. Funabashi, “Application of recurrent neural
network to short-term-ahead generating power forecasting for
photovoltaic system,” 2007 IEEE Power Eng. Soc. Gen. Meet. PES,
2007.
[6] A. L. Avila-Marin, J. Fernandez-Reche, and F. M. Tellez, “Evaluation
of the potential of central receiver solar power plants: Configuration,
optimization and trends,” Appl. Energy, vol. 112, pp. 274–288, 2013.
[7] J. a. Duffie, W. a. Beckman, and W. M. Worek, Solar Engineering of
Thermal Processes, 2nd ed. 1994.
[8] F. Wang, Z. Mi, S. Su, and H. Zhao, “Short-term solar irradiance
forecasting model based on artificial neural network using statistical
feature parameters,” Energies, vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 1355–1370, 2012.
[9] M. Benghanem and a. a. Joraid, “A multiple correlation between
different solar parameters in Medina, Saudi Arabia,” Renew. Energy,
vol. 32, no. 14, pp. 2424–2435, 2007.
[10] E. Lorenz, J. Hurka, D. Heinemann, and H. G. Beyer, “Irradiance
forecasting for the power prediction of grid-connected photovoltaic
systems,” IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens., vol. 2, no.
1, pp. 2–10, 2009.
[11] D. Mayer, L. Wald, Y. Poissant, and S. Pelland, “Performance
prediction of grid-connected photovoltaic systems using remote
sensing,” Rep. IEA-PVPS T2-072008, 2008.
[12] “Decision Sciences - Demystifying machine learning techniques in
forecasting | Mu Sigma Thought Leadership.” [Online]. Available:
http://www.mu-sigma.com/analytics/thought_leadership/decision-
sciences-Demystifying-Machine-learning-in-forecasting.html.
[Accessed: 28-Jun-2015].
[13] N. Sharma, P. Sharma, D. Irwin, and P. Shenoy, “Predicting solar
generation from weather forecasts using machine learning,” 2011 IEEE
Int. Conf. Smart Grid Commun. SmartGridComm 2011, pp. 528–533,
2011.
[14] L. Breiman, “Random Forests,” Eur. J. Math., vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 5–32,
2001.