The Game of Kauda (sf}8f):A Case Study

The " Kauda" are small pieces of seashell, which are used as gambling device in Nepal. Each Kauda has two
sides. The 'face up' position is called a ‘Thada (&f*f)' and the face down' position on a Kauda is called
'Ghopte(#f]K^])' in Nepalese language. This gambling game is played throwing 16 pieces of Kaudas and betting on
different combinations. The different numbers of kaudas turning 'face down' and 'face up' position determine
the different combination, each of such combination is called a 'Dau(bfp)' and has a name. The names of
such combinations are: Teeya(ltof), Chauka(rf}sf), Panja(kGhf) and Chakka(%Ssf)
The following table reveals the different combinations and their names:

Table 1: Different Combinations and their names in Kauda

Thada 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Name Chauka Panja Chakka Teeya Chauka Panja Chakka Teeya Chauka

Thada 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Name Panja Chakka Teeya Chauka Panja Chakka Teeya Chauka

Example: In a throw if the number of 'Thada' is 11 then we say that 'Teeya' has occurred.

Rules and strategy: This game may be played between any number of players, negotiating the rules and
strategy, however, two types of strategies are commonly seen.

Strategy 1: In this strategy of the game, a player throws the set of 16 Kaudas; he/she has his/her particular
combination fixed in advance. Other players bet on seeing different combinations, not taken by the thrower.
For example, if the player taking 'Teeya' is throwing, players can bet on seeing the other three combinations.

After the kauda is thrown, the resulting combination is noted. If this combination happens to be the one
belonging to the thrower, the thrower wins the entire amount staked at other combinations. If this
combination is other than the one belonging to the thrower, the thrower has to pay the amount bet on the
seen combination.

For example, ‘A’ takes 'Chauka' and throws, 'B' bets Rs. 100 on seeing 'Panja', 'C' bets Rs. 300 on seeing
'Chakka', and 'D' bets Rs. 200 on 'Teeya'.
If 'Chauka' turns, 'A' wins all Rs. 600 bet. But if 'Teeya' turns, he would have to pay Rs.200 to 'D' , then the
throwing turn goes to 'D' and game continues.

Another Variation (Strategy 2): In another strategy, the thrower may accept the bet only on the
complementary combination i.e. Chauka Vs. Chakka, Teeya vs. Panja. This means that if the thrower is
throwing with Chauka, he/she may accept only the bet on Chakka. In this case, if Teeya or Panja comes,
he/she would have zero payoff., but the throwing turn goes to the player whose combination is shown.

ANALYSIS OF PROBABILITIES:

Assumptions: Suppose that each piece of 'kauda' is unbiased one, that is probability of getting 'Thada' and
'Ghopte' are equal to 0.5. Note that, in reality this may not be true, the probabilities of showing Thada or
Ghopte by each Kauda may be different. Such probabilities may be assigned by 'relative frequency approach',
that is throwing each kauda large number of times and noting the number of times 'Thada' or 'Ghopte' turned.
However, study of varying probabilities is beyond the scope of this study.
Also, we assume that the kauda are thoroughly mixed and no personal skills, whatsoever are associated with
'Kauda throwing'.

Now we shall use the theory of Binomial Distribution to analyze the probabilities of this game.

Let X= number of 'Thada' in a throw (x=0, 1, 2, 3, ………..16). Then it is obvious that X~B(16, 0.5), as such we
have,

P(X=r) =16Cr pr(1-p)16-r = 16Cr (0.5)r(0.5)16-r = = 16Cr (0.5)16 == 16Cr (.0000152587890625)

r=0, 1,2, 3, 4…….16

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Table 2: Binomial Probabilities of seeing different number of X=r

16 16
r Cr P(X=r) r Cr P(X=r)
0 1 1.52588E-05 9 11440 0.174560547
1 16 0.000244141 10 8008 0.122192383
2 120 0.001831055 11 4368 0.066650391
3 560 0.008544922 12 1820 0.027770996
4 1820 0.027770996 13 560 0.008544922
5 4368 0.066650391 14 120 0.001831055
6 8008 0.122192383 15 16 0.000244141
7 11440 0.174560547 16 1 1.52588E-05
8 12870 0.196380615 Total 65536 1
E(X)=np=16x0.5=8; Var(X)=npq=16x0.5x0.5=4 SD(X)=2

Adding the corresponding probabilities, using the table 1 and table 2, we get the number of
ways and the probabilities of seeing different Combination is as follows.
Table 3: Number of Ways and Probabilities of seeing different combinations.
Number of
Combination Ways Probability
Teeya 16384 0.25
Chauka 16512 0.2519531
Panja 16384 0.25
Chakka 16256 0.2480469
Total 65536 1

Monetary Values Associated in Different Strategies:

The Monetary value of a particular outcome for the player, who is throwing the Kauda is the
amount accumulated (profit) by the player if that particular outcome is observed. It is obvious
that the negative monetary value is loss.

The Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is the weighted arithmetic mean of Monetary Values,
weights being the corresponding probabilities. Symbolically,
EMV=Σ(Monetary Value X Probability)
Strategy 1 with 'Chauka'
Suppose 'A' throws with taking 'Chauka' and the bet at different combination is as follows:
Chakka-Rs. 100;Panja-Rs.100;Teeya- Rs. 100
Table 4: Monetary Values Associated
Outcome Probability Monetary Probability*Monetary
Value value
Teeya 0.25 -100 -25
Chauka 0.2519531 300 75.6
Panja 0.25 -100 -25
Chakka 0.2480469 -100 -24.8
Total 1 EMV=0.8
The above table shows that with the given amounts as bet the thrower is expected to win Rs.
0.8 in that game

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Strategy 1 with 'Chakka'
Suppose 'A' throws with taking 'Chakka' and the bet at different combination is as follows:
Chauka-Rs. 100;Panja-Rs.100;Teeya- Rs. 100
Table 5: Monetary Values Associated
Outcome Probability Monetary Probability*Monetary
Value value
Teeya 0.25 -100 -25
Chauka 0.2519531 -100 -25.2
Panja 0.25 -100 -25
Chakka 0.2480469 300 74.4
Total 1 EMV=-0.8
The above table shows that with the given amounts as bet the thrower is expected to lose Rs.
0.8 in that game
Strategy 1 with 'Teeya'
Suppose 'A' throws with taking 'Teeya' and the bet at different combination is as follows:
Chauka-Rs. 100;Panja-Rs.100;Chakka- Rs. 100
Table 6: Monetary Values Associated
Outcome Probability Monetary Probability*Monetary
Value value
Teeya 0.25 300 75
Chauka 0.2519531 -100 -25.2
Panja 0.25 -100 -25
Chakka 0.2480469 -100 -24.8
Total 1 EMV=0
The above table shows that with the given amounts as bet the thrower is expected to remain
equal. The same result will be obtained in 'Strategy 1 with Panja'.

Strategy 2 with Chauka:

In this strategy, the thrower accept bet only on the complementary combination. Suppose 'A'
throws taking Chauka and accepts Rs.100 bet on Chakka.

Table 7: Monetary Values Associated

Outcome Probability Monetary Probability*Monetary
Value value
Teeya 0.25 0 0
Chauka 0.2519531 100 25.2
Panja 0.25 0 0
Chakka 0.2480469 -100 -24.8
Total 1 EMV=0.4

With this strategy it is apparent from the above table that the thrower is expected to win Rs.
0.4. The situations are summarized in the table below.

Table 8: Expected Monetary Values(EMV)

Thrower's Choice ⇒ Teeya Chauka Panja Chakka
EMV ⇓
Strategy 1 0 0.8 0 -0.8
Strategy 2 0 0.4 0 -0.4

Using same arguments, one may calculate the EMV for different amounts of bet.

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Conclusion and Limitations:
The table 8, shows that in the given condition, it is favorable for the thrower to choose
'Chauka' with strategy 1, however in reality, the assumptions we made are not satisfied as it is
not easy to collect a set of 16 unbiased Kaudas. In fact, there is no any method to determine
with 100% accuracy that the Kaudas are unbiased one. As previously stated, the relative
frequency approach may be useful. The watchers of the Kauda game should have also noted
that, not all the players mix the devices thoroughly, some prefer to hold, a number of devices
between his/her thumb and Index-finger, this way of throwing the kauda undoubtedly distorts
our assumption of thorough mixing.
In the forthcoming chapters, we will be in the position to analyze the unbiased- ness of the
devices using advanced techniques.

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