Anda di halaman 1dari 147

Capacity Development of

Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal

AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST DRAFT


SEPTEMBER 2012
Page Intentionally blank
Contents

1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................ 5
2 SCOPE ....................................................................................................................................................... 5
3 NEPAL HISTORICAL AIR TRANSPORT BACKGROUND ...................................................................... 6
3.1 AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND HISTORICAL EVOLUTION .............................................................................7
3.2 AIR TRAFFIC SEASONAL BEHAVIOUR.............................................................................................. 10
3.3 AIR TRAFFIC TIPOLOGY ...................................................................................................................... 14
3.3.1 International ............................................................................................................................... 14
3.3.2 Domestic .................................................................................................................................... 19
3.4 OPERATING AIR TRANSPORT COMPANIES ................................................................................................ 21
3.5 AIR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES IN NEPAL.......................................................................................... 23
4 DATA BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 28
5 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................................... 30
6 IBM SOFTWARE SPSS: PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SOFTWARE AND SOLUTIONS ........................ 31
7 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................... 31
8 NOMENCLATURE ................................................................................................................................... 31
9 DOMESTIC TRIBHUVAN SHORT TERM FORECASTING.................................................................... 32
9.1 AVAILABLE DATA .................................................................................................................................. 32
9.2 DOM. SHORT TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL ...................................... 32
9.3 STD RESULTS ....................................................................................................................................... 38
9.3.1 Passengers ................................................................................................................................ 38
9.3.2 Aircraft Movements .................................................................................................................... 40
9.3.3 Cargo ......................................................................................................................................... 42
10 INTERNATIONAL TRIBHUVAN SHORT TERM FORECASTING...................................................... 44
10.1 AVAILABLE DATA .............................................................................................................................. 44
10.2 INT. SHORT TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL..................................... 44
10.3 STI RESULTS ..................................................................................................................................... 45
10.3.1 Passengers ................................................................................................................................ 45
10.3.2 Aircraft Movements .................................................................................................................... 47
10.3.3 Cargo ......................................................................................................................................... 49
11 INTERNATIONAL TRIBHUVAN LONG TERM FORECASTING ........................................................ 51
11.1 AVAILABLE DATA .............................................................................................................................. 51
11.2 INT. LONG TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL ....................................... 51
11.3 LTI RESULTS...................................................................................................................................... 52
11.3.1 PESSIMISTIC ............................................................................................................................ 54
11.3.2 OPTIMISTIC .............................................................................................................................. 62
11.3.3 PROBABLE ............................................................................................................................... 68
12 DOMESTIC TRIBHUVAN LONG TERM FORECASTING .................................................................. 74
12.1 AVAILABLE DATA .............................................................................................................................. 74
12.2 DOM. LONG TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL .................................... 74
12.3 LTD RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 76
12.3.1 PESSIMISTIC ............................................................................................................................ 77
12.3.2 OPTIMISTIC .............................................................................................................................. 85
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 3 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.3 PROBABLE ............................................................................................................................... 91
13 REGIONAL AIRPORT AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECASTING ..................................................... 97
13.1 AVAILABLE DATA .............................................................................................................................. 97
13.2 REGIONAL AIRPORT AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL ................. 105
13.2.1 Passengers .............................................................................................................................. 115
13.2.2 Aircraft Movements .................................................................................................................. 117
13.2.3 Cargo ....................................................................................................................................... 119
14 TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR FORECASTING .................................................................................... 121
14.1 AVAILABLE DATA ............................................................................................................................ 121
14.2 TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL ................................................... 121
14.2.1 TRIBHUVAN PEAK DAY RESULTS ....................................................................................... 123
14.2.2 TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR RESULTS .................................................................................... 129
14.2.3 TRIBHUVAN DESIGN DAY ..................................................................................................... 135
14.2.4 TRIBHUVAN DESIGN DAY PEAK HOUR .............................................................................. 136
15 NEPAL INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS EFFECTS IN AIR TRAFFIC FORECAST. ........... 137
16 ANNEX 1: SPSS MAIN RESULTS EXTRACTS................................................................................ 138
16.1 STD .................................................................................................................................................... 138
16.2 STI ..................................................................................................................................................... 139
16.3 LTI ...................................................................................................................................................... 140
16.4 LTD .................................................................................................................................................... 146

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 4 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
1 INTRODUCTION

As introduction to this document, following, an ICAO 9184 Airport Planning


Documents extract, Chapter 3 Forecasting for Planning, 3.2.1:

“Forecasting is the heart of planning and control processes. Forecasts are


necessary to define the facilities that will be required, the scale of such facilities,
and the time at which they will be required.

The objective of forecasting is not to predict the future with precision, but to
provide information that can be used to evaluate effects of uncertainty about the
future. Thus, both for physical planning and for financial assessment purposes,
consideration should be given not only to the implications of the forecasts
themselves but also to the implications of lack of precision in the forecasts and in
the conversion of the forecasts into planning criteria. “

So, this document pretends to be a starting point document for the future Nepal Air
Transport Infrastructures and Management Planning.

2 SCOPE

The present document studies the future air traffic demand in Nepal. As required
at:

TASK (14): Review and validate the air traffic forecast for Tribhuvan International
Airport created under TA 7031 NEP. Develop this forecast further to account for
traffic anticipated to use the domestic airports during the timeframe of the NCADP.

A previous short review of the TA 7031 NEP document has been done, but
regarding to its conclusions sources and methods are not described in detail, it is
more appropriate a new air traffic forecast departing from actual scenario.

Following, a TIA complete air traffic demand analysis have been done, as well as
the following regional 14 airports air traffic study:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 5 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
STUDIED 14 REGIONAL AIRPORTS

ICAO IATA NEPAL NAME CITY


1 VNNG KEP NG Nepalgunj Airport Nepalgunj
2 VNVT BIR BR/VT Biratnagar Airport Biratnagar
3 VNPK PKR PK Pokhara Airport Pokhara
4 VNLK LUA LK Lukla Airport Lukla
5 VNSK SKH SK Surkhet Airport Surkhet
6 VNDH DHI DH Dhangarhi Airport Dhangarhi
7 VNSI SIF SI Simara Airport Simara
8 VNBW BWA BW Bhairahawa Airport Bhairahawa
9 VNJP JKR JP Janakpur Airport Janakpur
10 VNBP BHR BP Bharatpur Airport Bharatpur
Bhadrapur Airport (chandragadhi
11 VNCG BDP BDP Airport) Bhadrapur / Chandragadhi
12 VNJL JUM JUM Jumla Airport Jumla
13 VNJS JMO JMO Jomsom Airport Jomsom
14 VNST IMK IMK Simikot Airport Simikot

Regarding to domestic airports, the information and data compilation has been
hard to complete, so consultant team travelled to these airports, Biratnagar,
Nepalgunj, Pokhara, Surkhet, in order to achieve more complete and accurate
data.

Finally, Ermc-Ineco-Prointec consultant considers that a peak day and peak hour
analysis is an interesting and essential study for future airport plans, so a complete
analysis has been added in addition.

3 NEPAL HISTORICAL AIR TRANSPORT BACKGROUND

Aviation sector in Nepal has shown a tremendous growth in air travel demand and
in the number of flights after the country adopted a liberal sky policy since 1992.
The upsurge in Nepalese immigrant traffic to Malaysia and the Gulf region
especially from 2003 also contributed to the high growth in air travel demand.
International air traffic has crossed 2,7 million passengers in 2011, and the recent
growth trend has been most impressive.

This mentioned growth has been occurred both in international and domestic
traffic, as reflected in the following graphics. But international traffic shows more

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 6 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
regular growing, instead the domestic passenger evolution has more variation,
depending on local circumstances.

Following data have been extracted from several archives and paper documents
provided by CAAN authority and other airport staff.

During this study, some incoherence and uncertainty have been detected
depending on different information sources. This study has synthesized all
received documents according to a logical criteria, in order to complete a good
departing data for an as accurate as possible air traffic demand forecast. These
departing data is the showed following, in tables and graphics, resumed in this
document and completed in attached annexes.

3.1 AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND HISTORICAL EVOLUTION

INTERNATIONAL PAX EVOLUTION


3000000

2500000

2000000
DEPARTURES
Pax

1500000
ARRIVALS
1000000
TOTAL
500000

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 7 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC PAX EVOLUTION
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
Pax

DEPARTURES
800000
ARRIVALS
600000
TOTAL
400000
200000
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Source: CAAN

TOTAL PAX EVOLUTION


5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
Pax

2500000
2000000 TOTAL
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Source: CAAN

Growth rates:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 8 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
PAX GROWTH RATE

0,3
0,2
Growth Rate

0,1
0
-0,1
-0,2
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: CAAN

The same evolution has been observed in movement terms, directly related to
passengers.

TOTAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT EVOLUTION


120000

100000
TOTAL MOV.

80000

Domestic
Pax

60000
Movements
40000
International
20000 Movements

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year

Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 9 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
So, as reflected, an obvious increasing growth has been observed in last years.
This means that Nepal CAAN authority planning must be ambitious and adjusted
to this positive evolution.

The complementary factor to be studied is the cargo air transport evolution, due to
its importance in the country´s socio economic evolution.

TOTAL CARGO EVOLUTION


25000000 6000000

5000000
20000000
4000000 INTERNATIONAL
Cargo ( Tn)

15000000 3000000
TOTAL MOV.

10000000 2000000
DOMESTIC
1000000
5000000
0

0 -1000000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year

Source: CAAN

In this case an irregular behavior is observed. The domestic cargo air transport
has been growing regular, except some years between 1995-2000. However,
international cargo air transport evolution has experienced an irregular behaviour
but tending to be more constant in last years.

3.2 AIR TRAFFIC SEASONAL BEHAVIOUR

Besides the historical air traffic evolution, in order to a global vision of the NEPAL
air transport, other facts must be observed.

Air traffic seasonal behavior is essential. An annual global data does not reflect
each airport monthly, weekly and daily reality, the most important factor for its
design and management.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 10 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
This analysis must begin with a seasonal behavior study. Regarding to these,
some 1995 and 1996 seasonal data has been received, but a continuous series is
necessary. This continuous series are available from 2006 to 2011:

DOMESTIC SEASONAL PAX EVOLUTION

200000
2006
150000 2007
2008
Pax

100000
2009
50000
2010
0
2011
JAN FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

Year
Source: CAAN

INTERNATIONAL SEASONAL PAX EVOLUTION

300000
2006
250000
200000 2007
2008
Pax

150000
100000 2009

50000 2010
0 2011
JAN FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

Year
Source: CAAN

In these graphics can be observed that, both, in domestic and international


passenger traffic, a constant peak month exists every year. A constant seasonal
behavior is observed, but it not too sharp.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 11 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Following, the corresponding data for aircraft movement and cargo air transport:

DOMESTIC SEASONAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT EVOLUTION

10000
2006
8000
2007
Movement

6000
2008
4000 2009
2000 2010

0 2011
JAN FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

Year
Source: CAAN

INTERNATIONAL SEASONAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT EVOLUTION

2500
2006
2000
2007
Movement

1500
2008
1000 2009
500 2010
0 2011
JAN FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

Year
Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 12 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
As observed, aircraft movement seasonal evolution agrees with passenger´s.

DOMESTIC SEASONAL CARGO EVOLUTION

1200000
2006
1000000
800000 2007
Cargo

600000 2008
400000 2009

200000 2010
0 2011
JAN FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

Year
Source: CAAN

INTERNATIONAL SEASONAL CARGO EVOLUTION

2000000
2006
1500000
2007
Cargo

1000000 2008
2009
500000
2010

0 2011
JAN FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

Year

Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 13 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
3.3 AIR TRAFFIC TIPOLOGY

The air traffic typology is essential for an air traffic forecast, because each type of
passenger, his origin, nationality, travel purpose may vary depending on several
factors, affecting to the air traffic evolution.

3.3.1 International

The international passenger and cargo distribution has been observed in 2011
daily detailed air traffic data, and it´s as following:

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER AND CARGO DISTRIBUTION

TOTAL PAX TOTAL CARGO TOTAL PAX % TOTAL CARGO %


SOUTH ASIA 1071718 1381763,6 39,70% 15,69%
MIDDLE EAST 1047639 3662982,1 38,80% 41,60%
SOUTH EAST ASIA 305054 2591451,7 11,30% 29,43%
EASTERN ASIA 275423 1168216,82 10,20% 13,27%

Source: CAAN

The photograph results:

TOTAL PAX

SOUTH ASIA
MIDDLE EAST
SOUTH EAST ASIA
EASTERN ASIA

Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 14 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
TOTAL CARGO

SOUTH ASIA
MIDDLE EAST
SOUTH EAST ASIA
EASTERN ASIA

Source: CAAN

Nepal adopted a liberal sky policy since 1992, and since then the government has
signed air agreements with four countries (Japan, UK, Qatar and Malaysia) and
MOU with 16 countries (Italy, Egypt, Luxemburg, Austria, Bahrain, Oman, Macao,
The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, UAE, Croatia, Israel, Philippines
and Turkey. Five more new countries are willing to sign the air agreement with
Nepal, namely, USA, Vietnam, Indonesia, Russia and Australia.

But the main gateways for air travel from Nepal are still the airports in India (Delhi
mainly), Gulf region (Doha, Dubai, Bahrain), and Thailand. Emergence of new
budget airlines from India and the Gulf region has contributed to their dominance
in the market.

As reflected in new data received, some of these Asian gateways are hubs
connecting Nepal with Europe region, North and South America and other
sources. For forecasting exercises, these traffics have been not included, because
the principal origins, are enough for a precise statistical analysis.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 15 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
For more details, see Section 2.4.

DETAILED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER AND CARGO DISTRIBUTION

TOTAL PAX TOTAL CARGO TOTAL PAX % TOTAL CARGO %


SOUTH ASIA 1071718 1381763,6 39,70% 15,69%
AFGHANISTAN 0 0 0,00% 0,00%
BANGLADESH 155469 301432,6 5,76% 3,42%
BHUTAN 23943 62603 0,89% 0,71%
INDIA 852532 719088 31,58% 8,17%
PAKISTAN 39771 298640 1,47% 3,39%
SRI LANKA 3 0 0,00% 0,00%
MIDDLE EAST 1047639 3662982,1 38,80% 41,60%
BAHRAIN 189469 439080,8 7,02% 4,99%
ISRAEL 163 0 0,01% 0,00%
OMAN 67947 133047 2,52% 1,51%
QATAR 298285 1206215,6 11,05% 13,70%
UAE 491775 1884638,7 18,22% 21,41%
SOUTH EAST ASIA 305054 2591451,7 11,30% 29,43%
CAMBODIA 10 0 0,00% 0,00%
INDONESIA 0 0 0,00% 0,00%
LAOS 20 0 0,00% 0,00%
MALAYSIA 126186 348260,7 4,67% 3,96%
MYANMAR 173 0 0,01% 0,00%
PHILIPPINES 0 0 0,00% 0,00%
THAILAND 178665 2243191 6,62% 25,48%
EASTERN ASIA 275423 1168216,82 10,20% 13,27%
CHINA 238687 911247,52 8,84% 10,35%
SOUTH KOREA 36736 256969,3 1,36% 2,92%

Source: CAAN

Filtering data from different sources, a general photograph about different


international airlines operating in Nepal has been obtained. As observed, airlines
operating in Nepal have been varying, and growing:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 16 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DETAILED INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE PASSENGERS DISTRIBUTION

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TOTAL


ABY Air Arabia 6928 54907 79383 131386 156147 187051 615802 5,26%
AIA 152451 152451 1,30%
AUA AUA 11675 8072 103 19850 0,17%
BAB 32877 46726 36279 115882 0,99%
BHA 1314 7218 8532 0,07%
Biman
Bangladesh
BBC Airlines 46371 58171 100394 70727 105971 92258 473892 4,05%
CCA Air China 19713 31192 16001 29620 36536 43489 176551 1,51%
CES 5133 18543 26828 50504 0,43%
COZ COZ 82265 1968 42694 126927 1,08%
China Suthern
CSN Airlines 16731 25971 21859 23368 46858 134787 1,15%
Royal Buthan
DRK Airlines 24523 26433 21992
21868 21942 30332 147090 1,26%
ETD Etihad Airways 1061 80419
77981 116496 127125 403082 3,44%
FDB FDB 1822 81446 152274 235542 2,01%
GFA Gulf Air 207875 167699 264180 238527 178887 149566 1206734 10,31%
GMG GMG Airlines 4272 22394 15476 37077 60425 37389 177033 1,51%
HAD Dragon Air 41375 47658 68977 82854 240864 2,06%
IGO 18913 18913 0,16%
HKE HKE 4873 4873 0,04%
National
Aviation
IAC Company India 109055 143835 166479 199770 619139 5,29%
JAI Jet Airways 85963 88668 143796 167849 255161 272560 1013997 8,66%
JLL 107271 112060 105087 324418 2,77%
KAL Korean Air 2535 15992 21053 33099 31528 36571 140778 1,20%
KFR 55470 76586 132056 1,13%
NAC NAC 174154 237751 232577 202041 846523 7,23%
NACIL 175022 175022 1,50%
NPL NPL 758 758 0,01%
NYT NYT 60105 60105 0,51%
OEA OEA 3759 3759 0,03%
OMA 15409 68964 84373 0,72%
Pakistan
International
PIA Airlines 25979 28133 53435 58161 47610 39668 252986 2,16%
QTR Quatar Airways 183786 183651 195153 251214 300184 277796 1391784 11,89%
RNA Nepal Airlines 276381 207552 483933 4,13%
RSH Jet Lite 86475 87631 93157 267263 2,28%
SEJ 22667 183594 206261 1,76%
SLK Silk Air 255 44689 52372 52906 49914 200136 1,71%
TFL 2660 6668 7289 16617 0,14%
THA Thai Airways 196865 170133 169669 186466 175422 154070 1052625 8,99%
UBD 24155 22274 46429 0,40%
OTHER OTHER 11622 14984 12320 13999 12941 12728 78594 0,67%

Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 17 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
This general vision about the operators could be very helpful for the future
management planning.

QTR Quatar Airways


GFA Gulf Air
THA Thai Airways
JAI Jet Airways
IAC National Aviation Company India
ABY Air Arabia
RNA Nepal Airlines
INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES BBC Biman Bangladesh Airlines
ETD Etihad Airways
JLL
RSH Jet Lite
PIA Pakistan International Airlines
HAD Dragon Air
FDB FDB
SEJ
SLK Silk Air
GMG GMG Airlines
CCA Air China
NACIL
AIA
DRK Royal Buthan Airlines
KAL Korean Air
CSN China Suthern Airlines
KFR
COZ COZ
BAB
OMA
OTHER
NYT NYT
CES
UBD
AUA AUA
IGO
TFL
BHA
HKE HKE
OEA OEA
NPL NPL
Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 18 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
3.3.2 Domestic

On the domestic front, there has been equally significant and consistent growth in
air traffic demand, especially in the increasing number of flights of small aircrafts.
The leading carriers are Buddha Air and Yeti Airline about 75% of domestic air
passenger traffic.

DETAILED DOMESTIC AIRLINES PASSENGER DISTRIBUTION

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TOTAL


Buddha
BA Air 396599 420963 403753 556917 615567 691023 3084822 41,96%
Yeti
YA Airlines 240059 456217 457615 480856 478225 449450 2562422 34,85%
AG Aigni Air 18254 28378 56094 174244 193313 197523 667806 9,08%
Guna
GA Airlines 38987 36728 17074 40834 96122 95542 325287 4,42%
TA TARA AIR 42724 103224 78241 224189 3,05%
NAC 45973 25490 52220 53406 47081 224170 3,05%
ST Sita Air 34010 26691 25042 25194 10983 15543 137463 1,87%
CA Air China 107153 1426 19760 0 128339 1,75%
Nepal
RA Airlines 38575 6321 44896 0,61%
Air
AD Dinasty 971 1740 3181 1916 2509 2311 12628 0,17%
SA 3659 6456 437 10552 0,14%
FDA FDA 204 586 657 1395 3066 2813 8721 0,12%
MH 4136 3449 7585 0,10%
MA Manag Air 3112 373 264 84 3833 0,05%
Shree
SH Airlines 437 236 341 61 734 168 1977 0,03%
OTHERS OTHERS 1927 41 1968 0,03%
SM SM 27 56 116 196 428 1122 1945 0,03%
Korean
KA Air 415 0 415 0,01%
IMPRO IMPRO 3 174 32 209 0,00%
HH HH 161 161 0,00%
NSBS NSBS 4 40 0 0 44 0,00%
VVIP VVIP 32 6 0 38 0,00%
Asian
Helicopter 0 0,00%

Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 19 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC AIRLINES
BA Buddha Air

YA Yeti Airlines

AG Aigni Air

GA Guna
Airlines
NAC

ST Sita Air

CA Air China

RA Nepal
Airlines

Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 20 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
3.4 Operating Air Transport Companies

Bilateral: Nepal has signed bilateral air service agreements with 36 countries.
This provides for 5.7 million seats per annum to and from Nepal. However, not
even 40% of this capacity is being utilized by the operating airlines so far. The
signing of a letter agreement with India multiplied seat provision five times to
30,000 seats per week and unlimited air cargo flights between India and Nepal has
been a milestone in Nepalese civil aviation.

Airline Operators: Twenty-nine international airlines are presently operating 284


schedule air services from Kathmandu to some 22 cities in Asia and Europe. Five
new international airlines started their air services to Kathmandu in 2010
(Kingfisher, Oman Air, Buddha Air, Spice Jet and Indigo Air). Buddha Air started
flights to Lucknow (India) from January 2011 and to Varanashi (India) from March
1, 2012. RAK Airways is the newest airline operating services to Kathmandu from
February 15, 2012. Among the other new airlines proposing services to Nepal are
Turkish Airline from Istanbul (October 2012), Air Lankan from Colombo.

Thus, the number of international airlines operating air services from Kathmandu
has reached 29, and the number of flights they operate increased to 284 flights per
week, thereby producing some 47,523 seats for passengers and 914 ton capacity
for cargo movement from Kathmandu each week.

In the last years, five new airlines (namely, Buddha Air International, Shree
Airlines International, Akashbhairav Air International, Goma Air and Skytech Heli
Services were licensed to operate air services and Air Operator Certificates (AOC)
have been issued. Three of them are fixed wing operators and two are helicopter
companies. Under the policy to access remote areas, single engine fixed wing
aircraft and helicopter operations have been facilitated to operate passenger and
cargo services in remote mountain areas of Nepal.

Out of the 86 aircrafts registered in Nepal, 69 aircrafts are in operational condition.


This includes 46 fixed wing aircraft and 18 helicopters. On the aviation sports side,
five of the eight companies who have acquired Air Operator Certificate (AOC) are
operational. For the promotion of tourism through aerial sports and entertainment
activities, aviation sports activities have been extended beyond Pokhara to
Kathmandu, Bandipur and other touristic areas of Nepal.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 21 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
NEW AIRLINES OPERATION SERVICE START

Year New Airlines operating services Service start


2006 GMG from Dhaka Bangladesh October 23
Air Arabia from Sarjah, United Arab November 7
Emirates November 13
Korean Air from Seoul, South Korea
2007 China Southern from Guangzhou, February 5
China October 26
Etihad from Abu Dhabi October 30
Silk Air from Singapore December 2
Dragon Air from Hong Kong December 13
Hong Kong Express from Hong Kong December 30
Orient Thai from Bangkok, Thailand
2008 Fly Yeti.com/ Air Arabia to Dubai, UAE July 8
2009 Bahrain Air from Bahrain March 17
China Eastern from Kunming, China September 8
TUI/ Arkfly from Amsterdam, The October
Netherlands December 15
Fly Dubai/ Dubai Aviation from Dubai,
UAE
2010 Kingfisher Airline from Delhi, India January 15
Oman Air from Muscat, September 2
Buddha Air to Paro (Bhutan), Lucknow September 23
and Varanasi, India
Spice Jet from Delhi, India October 7
Indigo Airlines from Delhi, India October 28
United Airlines from Dhaka,Bangladesh December
2012 RAK Airways from Dubai February 12
Source: CAAN

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 22 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
3.5 Air Transport Infrastructures in Nepal

At present there are 54 airports including six under construction. Among these
airports, 34 airports are operational with regular air services:

• International Airport. Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu.


• Domestic Hub Airports. There are 4 regional Airports: Biratnagar Airport,
Pokhara Airport, Bhairawa Airport and Nepalgunj Airport.
• Other Domestic Airports. There are 36 airports, only 29 in operation.
There is a new project for a second international Airport at Nijgadh.

Nepal is a mountainous country and most of the areas in western side are not
linked by road, so the air transport is the only mean of transportation. The
Government has been demanded to build new airports because of social
connectivity.

Maintenance of many domestic airports is problematic and new airports are being
built under political pressure. Some strict criteria are needed for adding new
airports.

In this aspect, CAAN Board has decided handing over the operation and
management of some 7 remote area airports in western Nepal to the local
community (district development committee) and the concept is in the process of
government approval.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 23 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Tribhuvan International Airport

Significant progress has been made in the airport recently:

Now, under a loan and grant contract between Nepal government and Asian
Development Bank signed on May 25, 2010, a loan of US$70 million and grant of
US $ 10 million will be available for undertaking Priority 1A works in the first phase
of TIA Master Plan 2026 in order to improve the capacity of air transport and flight
safety in TIA.

In addition to the above, the loan and grant program for TIA will also cover some
works at Simikot airport, Rara airport at Mugu and Lukla airport.

Tribhuvan International Airport

Pokhara Airport

Pokhara Regional International airport is one of the national high priority projects
in Nepal. 34 years ago Nepal Government acquired land of 158 hector for regional
International Airport. This site is 4 KM far (east) from existing Pokhara airport and

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 24 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
potential for 2500 meter length runway and can be constructed to ICAO 4D
requirement.

Government of Nepal is willing to construct this airport from Chinese Exim Bank
Loan. For that CAAN has published a notice for Engineering, procurement and
Construction (EPC) contract Tender from Chinese eligible bidders on February 9,
2011. The last date of tender submission is extended to April 24, 2012.

The aim of these projects to allow direct flights to Lucknow in India at existing
Pokhara Airport:

Pokhara Airport

Gautam Buddha Regional International Airport

An agreement has been signed between Nepal Government and Asian


Development Bank for US$28 million loan and US$6.41 million grant for the
development of Gautam Buddha International airport under South Asian Tourism
Infrastructure Development project to help develop tourism in Lumbini area and to
diversify congestion at TIA.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 25 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Currently Gautam Buddha Airport (GBA) is operated as a domestic hub airport.
The length of existing runway is 1524m and is 30m wide.

Government of Nepal has received a US$28 million loan and US$6.41 million
grant from ADB through South Asia Tourism Infrastructure Development Project
(SATIDP) for upgrading the GBA to Regional International Airport. Financing
agreement between ADB and Finance Ministry was signed on April 25, 2010.

Design and Supervision consultant was mobilized from September, 2011 and right
now they are engaged on design works. Procurement process also has started on
January 2012 for prequalification of contractor for civil works. Submitted
prequalification applications are under the evaluation. Probably the civil works
contractor will be mobilized on October, 2012. Project Completion date will be
2015.

Gautam Buddha Airport

Second International Airport

In 2007, Government of Nepal decided to build full flagged Second International


Airport (SIA) in Bara, Nijgadgh through BOOT Scheme. One Korean private
company conducted detail feasibility study and submitted a proposal to Nepal
Government through BOOT scheme. This report is under study in the Ministry of
Tourism and Civil Aviation.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 26 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Decisions on this project will affect severely to the Capacity Development Plan of
the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal.

Bara Region Nepal

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 27 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
4 DATA BACKGROUND

ERM-PROINTEC-INECO joint venture has been named to, as part of the Nepal
Airport Development project, study the Nepal Air Traffic configuration and its´
forecast for the next 20 years.

This forecast must observe as much as factors as possible, including determining


and historical data,. This makes possible a complete short term, long term, peak
hour and other air traffic analysis for Nepal in different scenarios for the next
years.

For that purpose, Nepal TIA CAAN authorities provide ERM-PROINTEC-INECO


JV the following documentation folders:

• 2006 data
• CAAN Report 2010 RAJ
• Data 2007
• DATA 2012
• Flight permission airport data
• INTERNATIONAL DATA 2010
• 2011

Containing more than 1400 archives.

As well as:

• Paper Documents:
o Civil Aviation Report 2009-2010
o Civil Aviation Report 2008

On the other hand, MOTCA provides:

• Paper Documents:
o Nepal Tourism Statistics 2010
o Nepal Tourism Statistics 2008

• Electronic Documents:
o Nepal Tourism Politics
o Nepal Economic information
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 28 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Starting from this initial point, an exhaustive leaking and analysis have been done
in order to clean and organize the necessary data for each kind of forecast.

As a result of this analysis, the following archives have been generated:

• DATA SUMMARY 31.08.12


• 2011_DAILY PEAK HOUR
• REGIONAL AIRPORTS FORECAST
• STD-STI NATCONSUMEPRICE
• LTD-LTI INDIA NEPAL GDP

Instead the documentation is wide, is not continuous and has low detail for a more
precise forecast. Due to this, some hypothesis have been done during the study,
and these hypothesis are described in each following section.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 29 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
5 METHODOLOGY

REQUIRED
TEMPORAL
AVAILABLE SERIES
PROVIDED

HYPOTHESIS STI

STD

LTI
OTHER INPUTS
LTD
VARIABLES

AIR TRAFFIC
CHARACTERIZATION

FORECAST

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 30 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
6 IBM SOFTWARE SPSS: Predictive analytics software and solutions

SPSS Predictive Analytics software and solutions has been the selected
software for this Nepal Air Traffic forecasting and data analysis.

SPSS, developed by IBM, is among the most widely used programs for
statistical analysis in social science. It is used by market researchers, health
researchers, survey companies, government, education researchers, marketing
organizations and others.

The original SPSS manual (Nie, Bent & Hull, 1970) has been described as
one of "sociology's most influential books". In addition to statistical analysis, data
management (case selection, file reshaping, creating derived data) and data
documentation (a metadata dictionary is stored in the datafile) are features of the
base software.

This software has been supported by excel statistical tools, and guided by ICAO
and FAA manuals and recommendation for Air Traffic Forecasting. Each followed
criteria is fully described in every section, as well as each formulated hyphotesis.

7 REFERENCES

• Doc. 8991 Manual on Air Traffic Forecasting. ICAO


• FAA Forecasting Aviation Activitiy by Airports
• IATA Airport Development Reference Manual
• ICAO Doc. 9184 Airport Planning Manual

8 NOMENCLATURE

• STD: Short Term Domestic Forecasting


• STI: Short Term International Forecasting
• LTD: Long Term Domestic Forecasting
• LTI: Long Term International Forecasting
• CARGO: Freight, in Kgs.
• PAX: Passengers
• MOV: Aircraft operation, movement, landing or take off
• DOM: Domestic
• INT: International
• GDP: Gross Domestic Product
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 31 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
9 DOMESTIC TRIBHUVAN SHORT TERM FORECASTING

9.1 AVAILABLE DATA

The following historical data are needed fore an international medium term
forecasting:

• Medium-Term Forecast, focused on monthly data for the past 5 years (60
months).

The present data analysis has obtained the following series:

• Monthly data from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
• Data by airline from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
• Daily domestic traffic by region/country/airport destination/origin 2011
• 10 Domestic (regional) airports traffic annual data, from 2003 to 2009
• Tourists arrival information 2008-2010

9.2 DOM. SHORT TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL

Regarding to the available data, the initial approach has been the following:

The short term domestic traffic evolution, the next years, has been considerate
that will be in accordance to the National Consume Price evolution in these years.

Regarding to this hypothesis, this National Consume Price has been obtained
from the available documentation, from 01.07.2007 to 01.09.2011.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 32 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
NATIONAL CONSUME PRICE RATE

National Consume Price


01.07.2007 108,15
01.08.2007 111,15
01.09.2007 112,10
01.10.2007 112,15
01.11.2007 111,35
01.12.2007 110,15
01.01.2008 110,10
01.02.2008 111,15
01.03.2008 112,85
01.04.2008 114,70
01.05.2008 116,45
01.06.2008 118,50
01.07.2008 121,50
01.08.2008 124,70
01.09.2008 126,55
01.10.2008 127,30
01.11.2008 126,45
01.12.2008 125,10
01.01.2009 124,95
01.02.2009 125,65
01.03.2009 126,65
01.04.2009 128,50
01.05.2009 130,70
01.06.2009 132,15
01.07.2009 134,35
01.08.2009 136,70
01.09.2009 137,75
01.10.2009 138,55
01.11.2009 138,75
01.12.2009 138,30
01.01.2010 138,55
01.02.2010 138,80
01.03.2010 139,10
01.04.2010 140,45
01.05.2010 141,85
01.06.2010 143,55
01.07.2010 146,80
01.08.2010 149,05
01.09.2010 149,70
01.10.2010 150,45
01.11.2010 151,15
01.12.2010 152,60
01.01.2011 153,30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 33 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
01.02.2011 153,15
01.03.2011 153,85
01.04.2011 154,45
01.05.2011 154,65
01.06.2011 156,70
01.07.2011 159,45
01.08.2011 161,10
01.09.2011 162,75
Source: CAAN

Departing from this initial data, a simple regression for this National Consume
Price and Domestic Short Term Forecasting has been set out, and the following
predictions and forecastings have been estimated.

For this porpoise, SPSS software program has been utilized. Through SPSS, and
for each case of series data, the best statistical forecast or prediction has been
chosen: ARIMAS, Holt, Medias, regression, exponential softening, etc.

As the short term National Consume Price factor is cyclic, seasonal, a previous
seasonal factorization have been carried out, in order to avoid this influence in the
short term forecasting. Once the forecasting is estimated, this seasonal
characteristic has been replaced.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 34 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
NATIONAL CONSUM PRICE EVOLUTION

250,00

200,00
National Consume Price

150,00 Seasonally fitted series


NatConsumPrice

ARIMA
100,00

50,00

0,00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Obtaining the following forecast:

NATIONAL CONSUME PRICE RATE FORECAST

National Consume Price


01.10.2011 161,24
01.11.2011 162,85
01.12.2011 164,63
01.01.2012 166,11
01.02.2012 167,27
01.03.2012 168,03
01.04.2012 168,45
01.05.2012 168,89
01.06.2012 169,38
01.07.2012 169,98
01.08.2012 170,78
01.09.2012 171,64
01.10.2012 172,69
01.11.2012 173,98
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 35 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
01.12.2012 175,27
01.01.2013 176,49
01.02.2013 177,55
01.03.2013 178,31
01.04.2013 178,87
01.05.2013 179,36
01.06.2013 179,83
01.07.2013 180,36
01.08.2013 180,98
01.09.2013 181,69
01.10.2013 182,51
01.11.2013 183,43
01.12.2013 184,39
01.01.2014 185,32
01.02.2014 186,15
01.03.2014 186,82
01.04.2014 187,36
01.05.2014 187,81
01.06.2014 188,23
01.07.2014 188,65
01.08.2014 189,11
01.09.2014 189,63
01.10.2014 190,21
01.11.2014 190,85
01.12.2014 191,52
01.01.2015 192,18
01.02.2015 192,78
01.03.2015 193,29
01.04.2015 193,71
01.05.2015 194,05
01.06.2015 194,35
01.07.2015 194,63
01.08.2015 194,93
01.09.2015 195,25
01.10.2015 195,61
01.11.2015 196,00
01.12.2015 196,40
01.01.2016 196,80
01.02.2016 197,17
01.03.2016 197,48
01.04.2016 197,72
01.05.2016 197,91
01.06.2016 198,05
01.07.2016 198,18
01.08.2016 198,29
01.09.2016 198,41
01.10.2016 198,55
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 36 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
01.11.2016 198,70
01.12.2016 198,86
01.01.2017 199,02
01.02.2017 199,15
01.03.2017 199,24
01.04.2017 199,29
01.05.2017 199,29
01.06.2017 199,26
01.07.2017 199,20
01.08.2017 199,13
01.09.2017 199,05
01.10.2017 198,97
01.11.2017 198,90
01.12.2017 198,83
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 37 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
9.3 STD RESULTS

9.3.1 Passengers

Available data about domestic passengers is the following:

AVAILABLE DATA
DOMESTIC MONTHLY PASSENGERS 2007-2011
200000
180000
160000
140000
Domestic Pax

120000 Domesti
c
100000
Passeng
80000 ers

60000
40000
20000
0
Oct-06

Jan-10

Apr-12
Nov-07

Feb-11
Dec-08

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Departing from the National Consume Price Evolution, a lineal correlation has
been estimated, obtaining domestic passengers Short Term Forecast:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 38 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC SHORT TERM PASSENGERS FORECAST

300000
250000
200000
Pax

150000
Domestic
100000 Passengers
Short Term
50000 Forecast
0
Oct-06

May-16
Apr-12

Aug-13
Feb-08

Jul-09

Nov-10

Dec-14
Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

STD PASSENGERS RESULT TABLE

Growing
Years STD Passengers
Rates
2008 1.036.586
2009 1.377.868 33%
2010 1.542.393 12%
2011 1.645.763 7%
2012 1.948.000 18%
2013 2.120.600 9%
2014 2.259.600 7%
2015 2.360.800 4%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

It is very clarifying the resulting graphic correlation between domestic passengers


evolution and the National Consume Price evolution. As it can be observed,
enough for an econometrical model. The R2 is high, near 80%,.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 39 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC SHORT TERM FORECAST
VS.
NATIONAL CONSUME PRICE

300000 250,00

250000 Domestic
200,00
Passengers
200000 Short Term
150,00 Forecast
Pax

150000
100,00 National
100000 Consum
Price
50,00
50000

0 0,00

dic-14

may-16
feb-08

jul-09

abr-12

ago-13
oct-06

nov-10

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

9.3.2 Aircraft Movements

The Aircraft Movements forecast has been estimated departing from the
passengers forecast.

With the available data, the average aircraft occupation has been observed, and
different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it: Trend lines
(lineal, potential and logarithmic), as well as constant occupation and different
ARIMAS trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that, with all
techniques, this occupation is almost constant, so the most coherent ARIMA has
been done for future occupation rate.
This occupation rate has been developing from 13,5 aprox. in 2007 to 20
passengers per aircraft in 2011, so an estimation from 20 passengers to 22 has
been considered for the short term future. Showed in the following graphic:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 40 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC AIRCRAFT OCCUPATION RATE FORECAST

25

20
Aircraft
15 Occupation
Pax

Rate
10 Forecast

0
jul-09

abr-12

ago-13
oct-06

nov-10

dic-14

may-16
feb-08

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

According to these criteria, the results for domestic aircraft movement forecast are
the following:

DOMESTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT FORECAST

12000

10000

8000
Mov

6000 Commercial
Aircraft
4000 Movement
Short Term
2000 Forecast

0
May-16
Apr-12
Nov-10

Aug-13
Feb-08

Jul-09

Dec-14
Oct-06

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 41 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
STD AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT RESULT TABLE

STD Commercial
Growing
Years Aircraft
Rates
Movements
2008 69.286
2009 76.191 10%
2010 79.892 5%
2011 81.594 2%
2012 95.825 17%
2013 102.100 7%
2014 106.825 5%
2015 109.875 3%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

9.3.3 Cargo

The Cargo forecast has been estimated departing from the aircraft movements
forecast.

With the available data, the average cargo occupation (kgs.) over aircraft has been
observed, and different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it:
Trend lines (lineal, potential and logarithmic), as well as constant occupation and
different ARIMAS trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that,
with all techniques, this occupation is almost constant, so the most coherent
ARIMA has been done for future occupation rate, estimating a 56 kgs. per
domestic movement approximately.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 42 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC AVERAGE CARGO OCCUPATION OVER AIRCRAFT

80
70
60
Domestic
50 Average
Cargo ( Kgs.)

40 Cargo
Occupation
30 over aircraft
20
10
0

dic-14

may-16
feb-08

jul-09

abr-12

ago-13
oct-06

nov-10

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Following, results:

DOMESTIC CARGO FORECAST

1200000

1000000

800000
Cargo (Kgs)

600000
Domestic
400000 Cargo (Kgs.)
Short Term
200000 Forecast

0
May-16
Apr-12
Nov-10

Aug-13
Feb-08

Jul-09

Dec-14
Oct-06

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 43 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
STD CARGO ( KGS) RESULT TABLE

Growing
Years STD Cargo
Rates
2008 4.803.533
2009 4.384.475 -9%
2010 3.731.083 -15%
2011 4.400.231 18%
2012 5.221.400 19%
2013 5.552.450 6%
2014 5.807.500 5%
2015 5.972.300 3%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

10 INTERNATIONAL TRIBHUVAN SHORT TERM FORECASTING

10.1 AVAILABLE DATA

The following historical data are needed for an international medium term
forecasting:

• Medium-Term Forecast, focused on monthly O/D data for the past 5 years
(60 months).

The data analysis has obtained the following series:

• Monthly data from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
• Data by airline from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
• Daily traffic by region/country/airport destination/origin 2011
• Tourists arrival information 2008-2010

10.2 INT. SHORT TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL

The short term international traffic evolution,for the close years, has been
considerate that will be in accordance to the domestic vs. international traffic
historical relationship in the last past 5 year. This PAXINT/PAXDOM rate has been
obtain from 2007 to 2011and statistically predicted for the short term forecast. The
result is that this rate is approximately 170 % for the next close years.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 44 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
INTERNATIONAL PASSENGERS OVER DOMESTIC PASSENGERS
RATE

350%

300%

250%
% International
200% Passengers /
Rate

Domestic
150% Passengers

100%

50%

0%

dic-14

may-16
feb-08

jul-09

abr-12

ago-13
oct-06

nov-10

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

As observed, except in specific months, is a very constant relationship and easily


predictable in statistic terms.

Departing from this initial data, STI, Short Term International Passenger forecast
has been developed, and the same technique as for the domestic movement and
cargo forecasting has been followed for the international movement and cargo
prediction.

10.3 STI RESULTS

10.3.1 Passengers

Available data about international passengers is the following:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 45 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
AVAILABLE DATA
INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY PASSENGERS 2007-2011

300000

250000

200000
PaxInt

150000

100000 International
Monthly
50000 Passengers

Apr-12
Apr-07

Aug-10
Nov-07

Jul-09

Feb-11

Sep-11
Dec-08
Oct-06

Jun-08

Jan-10

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Departing from this data and its rate over domestic passengers, international
passengers Short Term Forecast:

INTERNATIONAL SHORT TERM PASSENGERS FORECAST

500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
PaxInt

250000 International
200000 Passengers
150000 Short Term
100000 Forecast
50000
0
May-16
Apr-12

Aug-13
Feb-08

Jul-09

Nov-10

Dec-14
Oct-06

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 46 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
STI PASSENGERS RESULT TABLE

Growing
Years STI Passengers
Rates
2008 1.830.630
2009 2.027.147 11%
2010 2.429.130 20%
2011 2.705.577 11%
2012 3.286.500 21%
2013 3.582.300 9%
2014 3.817.100 7%
2015 3.988.100 4%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

10.3.2 Aircraft Movements

The Aircraft Movements forecast has been estimated departing from the
passengers forecast.

With the available data, the average aircraft occupation has been observed, and
different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it, as well as
constant occupation and different ARIMAS trough SPSS. The observed conclusion
with this study is that, with all techniques, this occupation is almost constant, so
the most coherent ARIMA has been done for future occupation rate.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 47 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
INTERNATIONAL AIRCRAFT OCCUPATION RATE FORECAST

160
140
120
100 Aircraft
Pax

80 Occupation
Rate Forecast
60
40
20
0

dic-14

may-16
feb-08

jul-09

abr-12

ago-13
oct-06

nov-10

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

This occupation rate has been varying between 102 and 144 passengers from
2007 to 2011, so an estimation of 124 passengers per aircraft has been
considered for the short term future.

According to this, the following results:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 48 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
INTERNATIONAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS FORECAST

4000
3500
3000
2500
Mov

2000 Commercial
1500 Aircraft
Movement
1000
Short Term
500 Forecast
0
Oct-06

May-16
Apr-12

Aug-13
Feb-08

Jul-09

Nov-10

Dec-14
Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

STI AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT RESULT TABLE

STI Aircraft Growing


Years
Movements Rates
2008 14.276
2009 15.701 10%
2010 19.417 24%
2011 24.652 27%
2012 26.450 7%
2013 28.850 9%
2014 30.750 7%
2015 32.075 4%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

10.3.3 Cargo

The Cargo forecast has been estimated departing from the aircraft movements
forecast.

With the available data, the average cargo occupation (kgs.) over aircraft has been
observed, and different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it
trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that this rate has been
very irregular, decreasing in last year. With all techniques the most coherent rate
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 49 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
estimation for the close future occupation rate, is 779 kgs. aprox. per international
movement.

INTERNATIONAL AVERAGE CARGO OCCUPATION OVER AIRCRAFT

1600
1400
1200
International
1000 Average
Cargo ( Kgs.)

800 Cargo
Occupation
600 over aircraft

400
200
0

dic-14

may-16
feb-08

jul-09

abr-12

ago-13
oct-06

nov-10

Months

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

As can be observed, 2011 cargo data falls significantly, but this last has not been
highly considered, being them unusual.

INTERNATIONAL CARGO FORECAST

3500000
3000000
2500000
Cargo (Kgs)

2000000
1500000 International
Cargo (Kgs.)
1000000 Short Term
Forecast
500000
0
Oct-06

May-16
Apr-12

Aug-13
Feb-08

Jul-09

Nov-10

Dec-14

Months
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 50 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
STI CARGO ( KGS) RESULT TABLE

Growing
Years STI Cargo
Rates
2008 13.886.146
2009 15.349.037 11%
2010 14.003.661 -9%
2011 8.817.283 -37%
2012 20.617.875 134%
2013 22.475.125 9%
2014 23.948.050 7%
2015 25.020.525 4%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

11 INTERNATIONAL TRIBHUVAN LONG TERM FORECASTING

11.1 AVAILABLE DATA

The following historical data are needed fore an international long term
forecasting:

• O/D annual data for the last 15 years.

The available data analysis has obtained the following series:

• Annual data from 1981 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo
• Monthly data from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
• Data by airline from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
• Daily traffic by region/country/airport destination/origin 2011

11.2 INT. LONG TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL

Regarding to the available data, the initial approach and hyphotesis is that the
international long term air traffic is related to each origin/destination country.

GDPs of all principal origin/destination countries (see section 2.3.1. above) have
been observed, and India and Nepal GDPs have been finally selected for the
different scenarios forecasting.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 51 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Depending of different countries GDPs and forecasting models, the scenario
changes in an optimistic or pessimistic way, so, as ICAO recommendations
indicate, this exercise is very useful and lighting for future long term different
situations study.

The present study observes as first step the pessimistic scenario, and second, the
optimistic scenario. Departing from these to situation, a probable scenario is
calculated statistically.

11.3 LTI RESULTS

For a complete future vision of the Nepal air traffic demand, a several situation
exercise have been done, in order to study the different factors influence in the
future air traffic demand.

Available data about international passengers is the following:

GDP: Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita.


Source: International Monetary Fund ( IMF).
IMF´s real data, as well as IMF´s prediction for GDPs until 2017 has been utilized,
and a prediction has been done over this series with SPSS.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 52 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
GDP EVOLUTION AND PREDICTION 1981-2035

9000
8000
7000
India
6000
5000
GDP

4000
3000
2000 Nepal
1000
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Regarding to international passengers historical evolution

INTERNATIONAL PAX EVOLUTION


3000000

2500000

2000000

DEPARTURES
Pax

1500000
ARRIVALS
1000000 TOTAL

500000

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 53 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
11.3.1 PESSIMISTIC

For a pessimistic situation, India and Nepal GDP evolution has been considered.
Departing from this hypothesis, SPSS statistical prediction has been obtained with
the following criteria:

• Independents: India y Nepal. ARIMA ( 0,2,0). Transf Func..:


NEPALGDP: num=1 Denom= 0 Dif.=0 Retardo=1 INDIA: None
And the same methods as in ST Forecasting have been utilized to extrapolate
passengers predictions to aircraft movements and cargo predictions.

11.3.1.1 Passengers

INTERNATIONAL PESSIMISTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST

10.000.000
9.000.000
8.000.000
7.000.000
6.000.000
Pax

5.000.000
4.000.000
3.000.000
2.000.000
1.000.000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 54 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTI PESSIMISTIC PASSENGER RESULT TABLE

LTI Pessimistic Growing


Years Passengers Media Rate
Forecast 2011-2035
2008 1.830.630
2009 2.027.147
2010 2.429.130
2011 2.705.577
2012 3.286.500
2013 3.582.300
2014 3.817.100
2015 4.062.000
2016 4.307.000
2017 4.548.000
2018 4.769.000
2019 4.969.000
2020 5.152.000
2021 5.321.000
2022 5.478.000
2023 5.628.000
2024 5.775.000
2025 5.923.000
2026 6.077.000
2027 6.243.000
2028 6.425.000
2029 6.630.000
2030 6.865.000
2031 7.137.000
2032 7.452.000
2033 7.820.000
2034 8.248.000
2035 8.746.000 5,01%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 55 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
11.3.1.2 Aircraft Movements

The Aircraft Movements forecast has been estimated departing from the
passengers forecast.

With the available data, the average aircraft occupation has been observed, and
different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it.

INTERNATIONAL AIRCRAFT OCCUPATION RATE FORECAST

180
160
140
120
100
Pax

80 International
60 aircraft
Occupation
40 Rate
20
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

This occupation rate has been growing irregularly from 62 and 124 passengers
from 1981 to 2011, so a growing statistical estimation has been considered, from
124 passengers per aircraft in 2012 to 168 passengers per aircraft in 2035.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 56 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
INTERNATIONAL PESSIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM
FORECAST

60.000

50.000

40.000
Pax

30.000

20.000

10.000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 57 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTI PESSIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS RESULT TABLE

LTI Pessimistic
Growing
Aircraft
Years Media Rate
Movements
2011-2035
Forecast
2008 14.276
2009 15.701
2010 19.417
2011 24.652
2012 26.450
2013 28.850
2014 30.750
2015 31.350
2016 32.750
2017 34.050
2018 35.200
2019 36.150
2020 36.950
2021 37.650
2022 38.225
2023 38.750
2024 39.225
2025 39.700
2026 40.200
2027 40.775
2028 41.425
2029 42.225
2030 43.175
2031 44.350
2032 45.750
2033 47.425
2034 49.450
2035 51.825 3,14%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 58 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
11.3.1.3 Cargo

The Cargo forecast has been estimated departing from the aircraft movements
forecast.

With the available data, the average cargo occupation (kgs.) over aircraft has been
observed, and different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it
trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that this rate has been
very irregular, decreasing in last year.

INTERNATIONAL AVERAGE CARGO OCCUPATION OVER AIRCRAFT

3.000

2.500

2.000
Cargo ( Kgs.)

International
1.500 Average Cargo
Occupation
over aircraft
1.000

500

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

With all techniques the most coherent rate estimation for the close future
occupation rate, is 779 kgs. aprox. per international movement.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 59 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
INTERNATIONAL PESSIMISTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

45.000.000
40.000.000
35.000.000
30.000.000
25.000.000
Pax

20.000.000
15.000.000
10.000.000
5.000.000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 60 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTI PESSIMISTIC CARGO (KGS.) RESULT TABLE

Growing
LTI Pessimistic
Years Media Rate
Cargo Forecast
2011-2035
2008 13.886.146
2009 15.349.037
2010 14.003.661
2011 8.817.283
2012 20.617.875
2013 22.475.125
2014 23.948.050
2015 24.408.200
2016 25.499.100
2017 26.527.200
2018 27.413.875
2019 28.159.300
2020 28.785.175
2021 29.313.750
2022 29.767.750
2023 30.170.275
2024 30.545.200
2025 30.916.850
2026 31.310.200
2027 31.751.050
2028 32.265.875
2029 32.881.900
2030 33.627.450
2031 34.533.725
2032 35.626.450
2033 36.939.125
2034 38.503.925
2035 40.354.250 6,54%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 61 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
11.3.2 OPTIMISTIC

For a optimistic situation, India and Nepal GDP evolution has been considered.
Departing from this hypothesis, SPSS statistical optimistic prediction has been
obtained with the following criteria:

• Independents: India y Nepal. ARIMA ( 0,1,0) . Transf. Func.:


NEPALGDP: num=1 Denom=0 Dif.=0 Retardo=0 INDIA: None

And the same methods than for the pessimistic scenario have been utilized to
extrapolate passengers predictions to aircraft movements and cargo predictions.

11.3.2.1 Passengers

INTERNATIONAL OPTIMISTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST

16.000.000
14.000.000
12.000.000
10.000.000
Pax

8.000.000
6.000.000
4.000.000
2.000.000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 62 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTI OPTIMISTIC PASSENGER RESULT TABLE

LTI Optimistic Growing


Years Passengers Media Rate
Forecast 2011-2035
2008 1.830.630
2009 2.027.147
2010 2.429.130
2011 2.705.577
2012 3.286.500
2013 3.582.300
2014 3.817.100
2015 4.284.000
2016 4.812.000
2017 5.422.000
2018 6.067.000
2019 6.703.000
2020 7.330.000
2021 7.945.000
2022 8.545.000
2023 9.128.000
2024 9.692.000
2025 10.234.000
2026 10.751.000
2027 11.241.000
2028 11.700.000
2029 12.125.000
2030 12.513.000
2031 12.861.000
2032 13.164.000
2033 13.419.000
2034 13.622.000
2035 13.768.000 7,01%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 63 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
11.3.2.2 Aircraft Movements

LTI Optimistic Aircraft Movements Result Table:

INTERNATIONAL OPTIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM


FORECAST

90.000
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
Pax

40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 64 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTI OPTIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT FORECAST RESULTS TABLE

LTI Optimistic
Growing
Aircraft
Years Media Rate
Movements
2011-2035
Forecast
2008 14.276
2009 15.701
2010 19.417
2011 24.652
2012 26.450
2013 28.850
2014 30.750
2015 33.050
2016 36.575
2017 40.600
2018 44.775
2019 48.775
2020 52.575
2021 56.200
2022 59.625
2023 62.825
2024 65.825
2025 68.600
2026 71.125
2027 73.400
2028 75.450
2029 77.200
2030 78.700
2031 79.900
2032 80.800
2033 81.400
2034 81.650
2035 81.575 5,11%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 65 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
11.3.2.3 Cargo

INTERNATIONAL OPTIMISTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

70.000.000
60.000.000
50.000.000
40.000.000
Pax

30.000.000
20.000.000
10.000.000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 66 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTI OPTIMISTIC CARGO (KGS.) RESULT TABLE

Growing
LTI Optimistic
Years Media Rate
Cargo Forecast
2011-2035
2008 13.886.146
2009 15.349.037
2010 14.003.661
2011 8.817.283
2012 20.617.875
2013 22.475.125
2014 23.948.050
2015 25.744.225
2016 28.487.625
2017 31.626.025
2018 34.874.275
2019 37.984.750
2020 40.951.825
2021 43.769.475
2022 46.431.625
2023 48.931.725
2024 51.263.100
2025 53.418.775
2026 55.391.275
2027 57.173.050
2028 58.756.075
2029 60.131.900
2030 61.291.900
2031 62.230.875
2032 62.931.400
2033 63.387.600
2034 63.589.075
2035 63.525.025 4%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 67 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
11.3.3 PROBABLE

11.3.3.1 Passengers

Departing from this data, the most probable international passengers Long Term
Forecast has been done considering India and Nepal GDP evolution. For the most
probable scenario, an SPSS statistical model has been used:

• Independents: India y Nepal. Expert Modeler. Model BROWN

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER PROBABLE LONG TERM FORECAST

12.000.000

10.000.000

8.000.000
Pax

6.000.000

4.000.000

2.000.000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 68 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTI PASSENGERS RESULT TABLE

Growing
LTI Passengers
Years Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
2008 1.830.630
2009 2.027.147
2010 2.429.130
2011 2.705.577
2012 3.286.500
2013 3.582.300
2014 3.817.100
2015 4.134.000
2016 4.437.000
2017 4.740.000
2018 5.044.000
2019 5.347.000
2020 5.650.000
2021 5.953.000
2022 6.256.000
2023 6.559.000
2024 6.863.000
2025 7.166.000
2026 7.469.000
2027 7.772.000
2028 8.075.000
2029 8.378.000
2030 8.682.000
2031 8.985.000
2032 9.288.000
2033 9.591.000
2034 9.894.000
2035 10.198.000 5,68%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 69 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
11.3.3.2 Aircraft Movements

INTERNATIONAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM FORECAST

70.000

60.000

50.000

40.000
Pax

30.000

20.000

10.000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 70 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTI AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT RESULT TABLE

LTI AIRCRAFT Growing


Years Movements Media Rate
Forecast 2011-2035
2008 14.276
2009 15.701
2010 19.417
2011 24.652
2012 26.450
2013 28.850
2014 30.750
2015 31.900
2016 33.725
2017 35.500
2018 37.225
2019 38.900
2020 40.525
2021 42.125
2022 43.650
2023 45.150
2024 46.600
2025 48.025
2026 49.400
2027 50.750
2028 52.075
2029 53.350
2030 54.600
2031 55.825
2032 57.025
2033 58.175
2034 59.300
2035 60.425 3,81%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 71 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
11.3.3.3 Cargo

INTERNATIONAL CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

50.000.000
45.000.000
40.000.000
35.000.000
30.000.000
Pax

25.000.000
20.000.000
15.000.000
10.000.000
5.000.000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 72 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTI CARGO ( KGS) RESULT TABLE

Growing
LTI Cargo
Years Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
2008 13.886.146
2009 15.349.037
2010 14.003.661
2011 8.817.283
2012 20.617.875
2013 22.475.125
2014 23.948.050
2015 24.842.500
2016 26.267.125
2017 27.649.900
2018 28.992.675
2019 30.297.150
2020 31.564.950
2021 32.797.600
2022 33.996.525
2023 35.163.100
2024 36.298.600
2025 37.404.300
2026 38.481.300
2027 39.530.750
2028 40.553.650
2029 41.551.025
2030 42.523.800
2031 43.475.600
2032 44.401.900
2033 45.306.150
2034 46.189.175
2035 47.051.675 7,23%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 73 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12 DOMESTIC TRIBHUVAN LONG TERM FORECASTING

12.1 AVAILABLE DATA

The following historical data are needed for a domestic long term forecasting:

• O/D annual data for the last 15 years.

The data analysis has obtained the following series:

• Annual data from 1981 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo
• Monthly data from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
• Data by airline from 2006 to 2011 for aircraft, passengers and cargo.
• Daily domestic traffic airport destination/origin 2011
• Domestic airports traffic annual data, from 2003 to 2009

12.2 DOM. LONG TERM FORECASTING HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL

The long term international traffic evolution has been considerate that will be in
accordance to the domestic vs. international traffic historical relationship in the last
past 30 years. This PAXDOM/PAXINT rate has been obtain from 1981 to 2011and
statistically predicted for the long term forecast. It has been observed that this rate
varies between 35 % and 60%, except from 1999 to 2005. During these
exceptional years, this rate grows to around 80%. The forecasting result is that this
rate is approximately 56 % for the next close years.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 74 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC PASSENGER OVER INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER RATE
FORECAST

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Rate

50%
40% % Domestic
passenger /
30% International
Passenger
20%
10%
0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Departing from this initial data, LTD, Long Term Domestic Passenger forecasts
have been developed, and the same technique as for the international movement
and cargo forecasting has been followed for the domestic movement and cargo
prediction.

Domestic passengers historical evolution:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 75 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC PAX EVOLUTION
1800000

1600000

1400000

1200000

1000000
Pax

DEPARTURES
800000 ARRIVALS

600000 TOTAL

400000

200000

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year

12.3 LTD RESULTS

For a complete future vision of the Nepal air traffic demand, a several situation
exercise have been done also in the domestic area, in order to study the different
factors influence in the future air traffic demand.

For this purpose, the international pessimistic and optimistic scenario are the
source data, and from these data, the mentioned paxdom/paxint rate conversion
has been done for each scenario.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 76 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.1 PESSIMISTIC

12.3.1.1 Passengers

DOMESTIC PESSIMISTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST

6.000.000

5.000.000

4.000.000
Pax

3.000.000

2.000.000

1.000.000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 77 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTD PESSIMISTIC PASSENGER RESULT TABLE

LTD Pessimistic Growing


Years Passengers Media Rate
Forecast 2011-2035
2008 1.036.586
2009 1.377.868
2010 1.542.393
2011 1.645.763
2012 1.948.000
2013 2.120.600
2014 2.259.600
2015 2.282.000
2016 2.420.000
2017 2.555.000
2018 2.680.000
2019 2.792.000
2020 2.895.000
2021 2.990.000
2022 3.078.000
2023 3.162.000
2024 3.245.000
2025 3.328.000
2026 3.415.000
2027 3.508.000
2028 3.610.000
2029 3.725.000
2030 3.857.000
2031 4.010.000
2032 4.187.000
2033 4.394.000
2034 4.634.000
2035 4.914.000 4,66%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 78 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.1.2 Aircraft Movements

The Aircraft Movements forecast has been estimated departing from the
passengers forecast.

With the available data, the average aircraft occupation has been observed, and
different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it.

DOMESTIC PASSENGER OCCUPATION RATE

25

20

15
Pax

10 Domestic
Passenger
Occupation
5 Rate

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

This occupation rate has been varying irregularly from 8 to 21 passengers from
1981 to 2011, growing slowly. An statistical estimation has been considered, 20,95
passengers per aircraft.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 79 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC PESSIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM
FORECAST

250.000

200.000

150.000
Pax

100.000

50.000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 80 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTD PESSIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS RESULT TABLE

LTD Pessimistic
Growing
Aircraft
Years Media Rate
Movements
2011-2035
Forecast
2008 69.286
2009 76.191
2010 79.892
2011 81.594
2012 95.825
2013 102.100
2014 106.825
2015 108.925
2016 115.525
2017 121.975
2018 127.900
2019 133.275
2020 138.175
2021 142.700
2022 146.925
2023 150.950
2024 154.875
2025 158.850
2026 162.975
2027 167.425
2028 172.325
2029 177.825
2030 184.125
2031 191.400
2032 199.875
2033 209.725
2034 221.200
2035 234.575 4,50%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 81 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.1.3 Cargo

The Cargo forecast has been estimated departing from the aircraft movements
forecast.

With the available data, the average cargo occupation (kgs.) over aircraft has been
observed, and different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over it
trough SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that this rate has been
very irregular:

• From 1981 to 1994, the cargo occupation data reflects an insignificant ratio
per aircraft.
• From 1994 to nowadays, an irregular rate is observed, varying from 11 to
69.

DOMESTIC AVERAGE CARGO OCCUPATION OVER AIRCRAFT

80
70
60
50
Cargo ( Kgs)

40
30 Domestic
Average
20 Cargo
10 Occupation
over Aircraft
0
-10
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

With all techniques the most coherent rate estimation for the future occupation rate
is 54,27 kgs. aprox. per domestic movement.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 82 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
DOMESTIC PESSIMISTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

14.000.000

12.000.000

10.000.000

8.000.000
Pax

6.000.000

4.000.000

2.000.000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 83 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTD PESSIMISTIC CARGO (KGS.) RESULT TABLE

Growing
LTD Pessimistic
Years Media Rate
Cargo Forecast
2011-2035
2008 4.803.533
2009 4.384.475
2010 3.731.083
2011 4.400.231
2012 5.221.400
2013 5.552.450
2014 5.807.500
2015 5.911.925
2016 6.269.550
2017 6.619.500
2018 6.941.175
2019 7.233.050
2020 7.499.275
2021 7.744.350
2022 7.973.325
2023 8.191.675
2024 8.405.350
2025 8.620.875
2026 8.845.250
2027 9.086.100
2028 9.351.625
2029 9.650.600
2030 9.992.600
2031 10.387.750
2032 10.846.950
2033 11.381.925
2034 12.005.125
2035 12.729.850 4,53%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 84 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.2 OPTIMISTIC

12.3.2.1 Passengers

DOMESTIC OPTIMISTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST

9.000.000
8.000.000
7.000.000
6.000.000
5.000.000
Pax

4.000.000
3.000.000
2.000.000
1.000.000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 85 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTD OPTIMISTIC PASSENGER RESULT TABLE

LTD Optimistic Growing


Years Passengers Media Rate
Forecast 2011-2035
2008 1.036.586
2009 1.377.868
2010 1.542.393
2011 1.645.763
2012 1.948.000
2013 2.120.600
2014 2.259.600
2015 2.407.000
2016 2.704.000
2017 3.047.000
2018 3.409.000
2019 3.766.000
2020 4.119.000
2021 4.464.000
2022 4.801.000
2023 5.129.000
2024 5.446.000
2025 5.750.000
2026 6.041.000
2027 6.316.000
2028 6.574.000
2029 6.813.000
2030 7.031.000
2031 7.226.000
2032 7.397.000
2033 7.540.000
2034 7.654.000
2035 7.736.000 6,66%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 86 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.2.2 Aircraft Movements

DOMESTIC OPTIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT LONG TERM


FORECAST

400.000

350.000

300.000

250.000
Pax

200.000

150.000

100.000

50.000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 87 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTD OPTIMISTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS RESULT TABLE

LTD Optimistic
Growing
Aircraft
Years Media Rate
Movements
2011-2035
Forecast
2008 69.286
2009 76.191
2010 79.892
2011 81.594
2012 95.825
2013 102.100
2014 106.825
2015 114.900
2016 129.075
2017 145.425
2018 162.700
2019 179.775
2020 196.600
2021 213.075
2022 229.175
2023 244.800
2024 259.925
2025 274.475
2026 288.350
2027 301.475
2028 313.800
2029 325.200
2030 335.600
2031 344.925
2032 353.050
2033 359.900
2034 365.325
2035 369.250 6,49%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 88 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.2.3 Cargo

DOMESTIC OPTIMISTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

25.000.000

20.000.000

15.000.000
Pax

10.000.000

5.000.000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 89 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTD OPTIMISTIC CARGO (KGS.) RESULT TABLE

Growing
LTD Optimistic
Years Media Rate
Cargo Forecast
2011-2035
2008 4.803.533
2009 4.384.475
2010 3.731.083
2011 4.400.231
2012 5.221.400
2013 5.552.450
2014 5.807.500
2015 6.235.500
2016 7.004.350
2017 7.891.850
2018 8.830.150
2019 9.756.850
2020 10.669.000
2021 11.563.400
2022 12.436.775
2023 13.285.675
2024 14.106.450
2025 14.895.325
2026 15.648.250
2027 16.361.025
2028 17.029.275
2029 17.648.275
2030 18.213.250
2031 18.719.075
2032 19.160.300
2033 19.531.400
2034 19.826.400
2035 20.039.125 6,52%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 90 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.3 PROBABLE

12.3.3.1 Passengers

Departing from international data, the most probable Domestic passengers Long
Term Forecast has been done considering the mentioned method.

DOMESTIC PASSENGER LONG TERM FORECAST

7.000.000
6.000.000
5.000.000
4.000.000
Pax

3.000.000
2.000.000
1.000.000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 91 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTD PASSENGERS RESULT TABLE

Growing
LTD Passengers
Years Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
2008 1.036.586
2009 1.377.868
2010 1.542.393
2011 1.645.763
2012 1.948.000
2013 2.120.600
2014 2.259.600
2015 2.323.000
2016 2.493.000
2017 2.663.000
2018 2.834.000
2019 3.004.000
2020 3.175.000
2021 3.345.000
2022 3.515.000
2023 3.686.000
2024 3.856.000
2025 4.026.000
2026 4.197.000
2027 4.367.000
2028 4.537.000
2029 4.708.000
2030 4.878.000
2031 5.048.000
2032 5.219.000
2033 5.389.000
2034 5.559.000
2035 5.730.000 5,34%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 92 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.3.2 Aircraft Movements

Domestic Aircraft Movement Long Term Forecast

300.000

250.000

200.000
Pax

150.000

100.000

50.000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 93 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTD AIRCRAFT MOVEMENT RESULT TABLE

LTD Aircraft Growing


Years Movements Media Rate
Forecast 2011-2035
2008 69.286
2009 76.191
2010 79.892
2011 81.594
2012 95.825
2013 102.100
2014 106.825
2015 110.875
2016 119.000
2017 127.125
2018 135.275
2019 143.400
2020 151.525
2021 159.650
2022 167.800
2023 175.925
2024 184.050
2025 192.175
2026 200.325
2027 208.450
2028 216.575
2029 224.700
2030 232.850
2031 240.975
2032 249.100
2033 257.225
2034 265.375
2035 273.500 5,17%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 94 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
12.3.3.3 Cargo

DOMESTIC CARGO LONG TERM FORECAST

16.000.000
14.000.000
12.000.000
10.000.000
Pax

8.000.000
6.000.000
4.000.000
2.000.000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 95 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
LTD CARGO ( KGS) RESULT TABLE

Growing
LTD Cargo
Years Media Rate
Forecast
2011-2035
2008 4.803.533
2009 4.384.475
2010 3.731.083
2011 4.400.231
2012 5.221.400
2013 5.552.450
2014 5.807.500
2015 6.017.100
2016 6.458.375
2017 6.899.650
2018 7.340.925
2019 7.782.200
2020 8.223.475
2021 8.664.750
2022 9.106.025
2023 9.547.300
2024 9.988.575
2025 10.429.850
2026 10.871.100
2027 11.312.375
2028 11.753.650
2029 12.194.925
2030 12.636.200
2031 13.077.475
2032 13.518.750
2033 13.960.025
2034 14.401.300
2035 14.842.575 5,20%

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 96 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
13 REGIONAL AIRPORT AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECASTING

13.1 AVAILABLE DATA

The following historical data would be ideal for a domestic regional airport long
term forecasting:

• O/D annual data for the last 15 years.

In this case, the following complete data has been obtained from different archives
and sources. The obtained data, depending on the source, differs in some years,
so the exposed tables have been completed following the most logical criteria.

• Global data from 1981 to 2011, passenger, aircraft movement and cargo
traffic. Different colours have been employed depending on the information
source:
• In black: Paper Documents, CAAN annual reports:
o Civil Aviation Report 2009-2010
o Civil Aviation Report 2008
• In green: Source: Consultant through different sources.
From this departing data, the following airports have been studied:

ICAO IATA NEPAL NAME CITY


1 VNNG KEP NG Nepalgunj Airport Nepalgunj
2 VNVT BIR BR/VT Biratnagar Airport Biratnagar
3 VNPK PKR PK Pokhara Airport Pokhara
4 VNLK LUA LK Lukla Airport Lukla
5 VNSK SKH SK Surkhet Airport Surkhet
6 VNDH DHI DH Dhangarhi Airport Dhangarhi
7 VNSI SIF SI Simara Airport Simara
8 VNBW BWA BW Bhairahawa Airport Bhairahawa
9 VNJP JKR JP Janakpur Airport Janakpur
10 VNBP BHR BP Bharatpur Airport Bharatpur
Bhadrapur Airport (chandragadhi
11 VNCG BDP BDP Airport) Bhadrapur / Chandragadhi
12 VNJL JUM JUM Jumla Airport Jumla
13 VNJS JMO JMO Jomsom Airport Jomsom
14 VNST IMK IMK Simikot Airport Simikot
REGIONAL AIRPORT HISTORICAL AIR TRAFFIC EVOLUTION

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 97 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Nepalgunj Airport

AIRCRAFT
NG MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 85000
1.999 99215
2.000 11606 95257 934000
2.001 11802 115763 1548000
2.002 9980 90223 1400000
2.003 12609 102744 1433531
2.004 11710 106654 2307469
2.005 13032 132354 2366761
2.006 13597 113480 3415495
2.007 10088 102722 1849399
2.008 9717 116795 1303791
2.009 9568 140045 1380912
2.010 8472 143456 856869
2.011 8152 142869

Biratnagar Airport

AIRCRAFT
BR/VT MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 171825 354000
1.999 171066 434000
2.000 9689 173658 456000
2.001 10198 188517 382000
2.002 9472 156807 215000
2.003 9582 142270 204079
2.004 11494 176839 281622
2.005 12059 324338 389083
2.006 9859 202631 276533
2.007 11323 207657 468619
2.008 12282 266267 773049
2.009 15382 408576 1192266
2.010 364949
2.011 372045

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 98 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Pokhara Airport

AIRCRAFT
PK MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 207874 298000
1.999 245575 1639000
2.000 22775 277704 1236000
2.001 21511 275383 1049000
2.002 16216 192374 656000
2.003 19887 214783 465252
2.004 13603 214645 227645
2.005 14287 209155 430580
2.006 12710 198265 365871
2.007 13155 211751 378443
2.008 19708 234230 170506
2.009 21513 301475 255323
2.010 25585 360610 227268
2.011 20183 370493 160108

Lukla airport

AIRCRAFT
LK MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 40020
1.999 59628
2.000 67969
2.001 45453
2.002 50360
2.003 8616 57845 1203000
2.004 7892 71422 1672606
2.005 7377 53943 1271297
2.006 8800 61992 1771811
2.007 10969 80733 2445792
2.008 12219 100082 2739491
2.009 12300 88881 2592159
2.010 92011
2.011 93292
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 99 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Surkhet Airport

AIRCRAFT
SK MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 10000
1.999 10640
2.000 10978
2.001 7392
2.002 5594
2.003 5594
2.004 8500 25576 6075750
2.005 4988 13671 3987270
2.006 6044 14634 6638196
2.007 8054 21582 7157670
2.008 8642 22278 6806044
2.009 12049 19367 13341692
2.010 19456
2.011 3700

Dhangarhi Airport

AIRCRAFT
DH MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 6356
1.999 4616
2.000 3260
2.001 2104
2.002 3500
2.003 8481
2.004 8608
2.005 1638 13298 9776
2.006 1047 10123 12191
2.007 1480 14087 32728
2.008 1711 18897 5886
2.009 1176 39826 5886
2.010 34991
2.011 37726

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 100 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Simara Airport

AIRCRAFT
SI MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 14412
1.999 44584
2.000 50173
2.001 48442
2.002 73463
2.003 4954 69563 161580
2.004 5610 89413 41940
2.005 6335 110109 49981
2.006 5108 82933 60800
2.007 3671 59638 26544
2.008 4296 66136 33065
2.009 4068 83012 0
2.010 82431
2.011 70745

Bhairahawa Airport

BW OPERATIONS PASSENGERS CARGO


1.998 47875
1.999 42519
2.000 4096 75824 0
2.001 5296 80628 57000
2.002 4804 74774 93000
2.003 4740 68879 53191
2.004 5303 78859 74957
2.005 5202 128258 76183
2.006 4042 66499 44905
2.007 3755 52495 55135
2.008 3761 67705 51809
2.009 3962 87727 73114
2.010 84349
2.011 119508

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 101 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Janakpur Airport

AIRCRAFT
JP MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 10762
1.999 17659
2.000 14962
2.001 24234
2.002 28258
2.003 2351 36115 10430
2.004 2935 49381 32079
2.005 3607 53497 33543
2.006 3226 50909 39687
2.007 2958 46363 58084
2.008 952 32475 8348
2.009 3320 55899 58257
2.010 66505
2.011 62113

Bharatpur Airport

AIRCRAFT
BP MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 18304
1.999 20496
2.000 26673
2.001 22416
2.002 15332
2.003 1776 20208
2.004 3080 39060
2.005 3098 42901 8849
2.006 2896 26179 5232
2.007 3489 21645 4305
2.008 2908 23791 1867
2.009 4064 41506 0
2.010 45131
2.011 51126

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 102 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Bhadrapur Airport (chandragadhi Airport)

AIRCRAFT
BDP MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 10027
1.999 13320
2.000 42234
2.001 42667
2.002 49533
2.003 47741
2.004 62304
2.005 54292
2.006 57767
2.007 80182
2.008 60400
2.009 135466
2.010 154687
2.011 2648 154882

Jumla Airport

AIRCRAFT
JUM MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 10309
1.999 13680
2.000 8969
2.001 7000
2.002 9796
2.003 9796
2.004 24014
2.005 25055
2.006 24156
2.007 28744
2.008 32040
2.009 40268
2.010 33350
2.011 10 27651
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 103 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Jomsom Airport

AIRCRAFT
JMO MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 34440
1.999 19174
2.000 24755
2.001 25682
2.002 17029
2.003 42561
2.004 39826
2.005 31976
2.006 33749
2.007 42477
2.008 60699
2.009 24014
2.010 70834
2.011 89 65527

Simikot Airport

AIRCRAFT
IMK MOVEMENTS PASSENGERS CARGO
1.998 7187
1.999 7756
2.000 6500
2.001 5500
2.002 5000
2.003 4909
2.004 8532
2.005 7461
2.006 9579
2.007 11365
2.008 13533
2.009 13055
2.010 16121
2.011 4 17732

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 104 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
13.2 REGIONAL AIRPORT AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND HYPHOTESIS AND USED
MODEL

Since the available data is limited, some hyphotesis have been done for the
regional airport air traffic demand forecasting.

According to ICAO forecasting manual, in cases that detailed data from the
airports system is not available, each airport quote over the total traffic of the
system can be considered

So, from the detailed available data, each airport domestic traffic percentage over
the total TIA domestic traffic have been calculated each year.

Notice that almost the total domestic traffic in Nepal is TIA traffic, with arrival or
departure in Tribhuvan. Air traffic between secondary airports is not significant for
planning studies.

Different trend and forecasting techniques have been proved over this percentage:
Trend lines (lineal, potential and logarithmic), as well as different ARIMAS trough
SPSS. The observed conclusion with this study is that this rate variation trends to
a constant, so the media of the available data has been observed for future
occupation rate.

.Selecting this percentage for each airport, its forecast has been calculated
relating this percentage with the domestic TIA long term forecast.

• ∑ 14 Principal Airports Traffic: Selected 14 airports data sum


• Others: Difference between TIA total domestic traffic data∑ and14
principal airports

 Passengers: This item, in case it´s negative, as happens in


passenger table, could mean that “Others” are passengers
from TIA to these 14 airports, and some of them continuing in
transit to other regional airports (not 14 principal ones).
 Aircraft Movements: This item, in case it´s positive, as
happens in aircraft movements table, could include the traffic
from these 14 airports to other regional airports.
 Cargo: This item, in case it´s positive, as happens in cargo
table, could include the traffic from these 14 airports to other
regional airports.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 105 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
YEAR REGIONAL AIRPORTS PASSENGERS HISTORICAL EVOLUTION
∑ 14
Principal
Airports
Pax NG BR/VT PK LK SK DH SI BW JP BP BDP JUM JMO IMK Traffic Others

1.998 670.076 85.000 171.825 207.874 40.020 10.000 6356 14412 47875 10762 18304 10027 10309 34440 7187 674391 4315
-
1.999 893.328 99.215 171.066 245.575 59.628 10.640 4616 44584 42519 17659 20496 13320 13680 19174 7756 769928 123400

2.000 853.006 95.257 173.658 277.704 67.969 10.978 3260 50173 75824 14962 26673 42234 8969 24755 6500 878916 25910

2.001 871.818 115.763 188.517 275.383 45.453 7.392 2104 48442 80628 24234 22416 42667 7000 25682 5500 891181 19363

2.002 748.391 90.223 156.807 192.374 50.360 5.594 3500 73463 74774 28258 15332 49533 9796 17029 5000 772043 23652

2.003 747.981 102.744 142.270 214.783 57.845 5.594 8481 69563 68879 36115 20208 47741 9796 42561 4909 831489 83508

2.004 876.190 106.654 176.839 214.645 71.422 25.576 8608 89413 78859 49381 39060 62304 24014 39826 8532 995133 118943

2.005 1.110.923 132.354 324.338 209.155 53.943 13.671 13298 110109 128258 53497 42901 54292 25055 31976 7461 1200308 89385

2.006 882.662 113.480 202.631 198.265 61.992 14.634 10123 82933 66499 50909 26179 57767 24156 33749 9579 952896 70234

2.007 916.429 102.722 207.657 211.751 80.733 21.582 14087 59638 52495 46363 21645 80182 28744 42477 11365 981441 65012

2.008 1.036.586 116.795 266.267 234.230 100.082 22.278 18897 66136 67705 32475 23791 60400 32040 60699 13533 1115328 78742

2.009 1.377.868 140.045 408.576 301.475 88.881 19.367 39826 83012 87727 55899 41506 135466 40268 24014 13055 1479117 101249

2.010 1.542.393 143.456 364.949 360.610 92.011 19.456 34991 82431 84349 66505 45131 154687 33350 70834 16121 1568881 26488

2.011 1.631.213 142.869 372.045 370.493 93.292 3.700 37726 70745 119508 62113 51126 154882 27651 65527 17732 1589409 -41804
Source: CAAN

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 106 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
YEAR REGIONAL AIRPORTS AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS HISTORICAL EVOLUTION
∑ 14
Principal
Airports
Aircraft NG BR/VT PK LK SK DH SI BW JP BP BDP JUM JMO IMK Traffic Others

1.998 34.468 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -34468

1.999 55.784 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -55784

2.000 55.998 11.606 9.689 22.775 0 0 0 0 4096 0 0 0 0 0 0 48166 -7832

2.001 55.165 11.802 10.198 21.511 0 0 0 0 5296 0 0 0 0 0 0 48807 -6358

2.002 47.941 9.980 9.472 16.216 0 0 0 0 4804 0 0 0 0 0 0 40472 -7469

2.003 53.140 12.609 9.582 19.887 8.616 0 0 4954 4740 2351 1776 0 0 0 0 64515 11375

2.004 66.471 11.710 11.494 13.603 7.892 8.500 0 5610 5303 2935 3080 0 0 0 0 70127 3656

2.005 68.704 13.032 12.059 14.287 7.377 4.988 1638 6335 5202 3607 3098 0 0 0 0 71623 2919

2.006 61.279 13.597 9.859 12.710 8.800 6.044 1047 5108 4042 3226 2896 0 0 0 0 67329 6050

2.007 65.443 10.088 11.323 13.155 10.969 8.054 1480 3671 3755 2958 3489 0 0 0 0 68942 3499

2.008 69.286 9.717 12.282 19.708 12.219 8.642 1711 4296 3761 952 2908 0 0 0 0 76196 6910

2.009 76.191 9.568 15.382 21.513 12.300 12.049 1176 4068 3962 3320 4064 0 0 0 0 87402 11211

2.010 79.892 8.472 0 25.585 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34057 -45835

2.011 81.594 8.152 0 20.183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2648 10 89 4 31086 -50508

Source: CAAN

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 107 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
AÑO REGIONAL AIRPORTS CARGO HISTORICAL EVOLUTION
∑ 14
Principal
Airports
Cargo NG BR/VT PK LK SK DH SI BW JP BP BDP JUM JMO IMK Traffic Others

1.998 1.012.681 0 354.000 298.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 652000 -360681

1.999 622.441 0 434.000 1.639.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2073000 1450559

2.000 2.289.000 934.000 456.000 1.236.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2626000 337000

2.001 1.912.000 1.548.000 382.000 1.049.000 0 0 0 0 57000 0 0 0 0 0 0 3036000 1124000

2.002 2.713.000 1.400.000 215.000 656.000 0 0 0 0 93000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2364000 -349000

2.003 3.122.000 1.433.531 204.079 8.481 1.203.000 0 0 161580 53191 10430 0 0 0 0 0 3074292 -47708

2.004 2.317.000 2.307.469 281.622 8.608 1.672.606 6.075.750 0 41940 74957 32079 0 0 0 0 0 10495031 8178031

2.005 2.974.000 2.366.761 389.083 13.298 1.271.297 3.987.270 9776 49981 76183 33543 8849 0 0 0 0 8206041 5232041

2.006 3.303.097 3.415.495 276.533 10.123 1.771.811 6.638.196 12191 60800 44905 39687 5232 0 0 0 0 12274973 8971876

2.007 3.923.923 1.849.399 468.619 24.087 2.445.792 7.157.670 32728 26544 55135 58084 4305 0 0 0 0 12122363 8198440

2.008 4.803.533 1.303.791 773.049 37.953 2.739.491 6.806.044 5886 33065 51809 8348 1867 0 0 0 0 11761303 6957770

2.009 4.384.475 1.380.912 1.192.266 39.826 2.592.159 13.341.692 5886 0 73114 58257 0 0 0 0 0 18684112 14299637

2.010 3.731.083 856.869 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 856869 -2874214

2.011 4.400.231 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4400231


Source: CAAN
Following, each regional airport traffic percentage and future media:

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 108 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
YEAR REGIONAL AIRPORT PASSENGERS PERCENTAGE AND FUTURE MEDIA
∑ 14
Principal
Airports
Pax NG BR/VT PK LK SK DH SI BW JP BP BDP JUM JMO IMK Traffic Others

1.998 670.076 12,69% 25,64% 31,02% 5,97% 1,49% 0,95% 2,15% 7,14% 1,61% 2,73% 1,50% 1,54% 5,14% 1,07% 100,64% 0,64%
1.999 893.328 11,11% 19,15% 27,49% 6,67% 1,19% 0,52% 4,99% 4,76% 1,98% 2,29% 1,49% 1,53% 2,15% 0,87% 86,19% -13,81%
2.000 853.006 11,17% 20,36% 32,56% 7,97% 1,29% 0,38% 5,88% 8,89% 1,75% 3,13% 4,95% 1,05% 2,90% 0,76% 103,04% 3,04%
2.001 871.818 13,28% 21,62% 31,59% 5,21% 0,85% 0,24% 5,56% 9,25% 2,78% 2,57% 4,89% 0,80% 2,95% 0,63% 102,22% 2,22%
2.002 748.391 12,06% 20,95% 25,71% 6,73% 0,75% 0,47% 9,82% 9,99% 3,78% 2,05% 6,62% 1,31% 2,28% 0,67% 103,16% 3,16%
2.003 747.981 13,74% 19,02% 28,72% 7,73% 0,75% 1,13% 9,30% 9,21% 4,83% 2,70% 6,38% 1,31% 5,69% 0,66% 111,16% 11,16%
2.004 876.190 12,17% 20,18% 24,50% 8,15% 2,92% 0,98% 10,20% 9,00% 5,64% 4,46% 7,11% 2,74% 4,55% 0,97% 113,58% 13,58%
2.005 1.110.923 11,91% 29,20% 18,83% 4,86% 1,23% 1,20% 9,91% 11,55% 4,82% 3,86% 4,89% 2,26% 2,88% 0,67% 108,05% 8,05%
2.006 882.662 12,86% 22,96% 22,46% 7,02% 1,66% 1,15% 9,40% 7,53% 5,77% 2,97% 6,54% 2,74% 3,82% 1,09% 107,96% 7,96%
2.007 916.429 11,21% 22,66% 23,11% 8,81% 2,36% 1,54% 6,51% 5,73% 5,06% 2,36% 8,75% 3,14% 4,64% 1,24% 107,09% 7,09%
2.008 1.036.586 11,27% 25,69% 22,60% 9,65% 2,15% 1,82% 6,38% 6,53% 3,13% 2,30% 5,83% 3,09% 5,86% 1,31% 107,60% 7,60%
2.009 1.377.868 10,16% 29,65% 21,88% 6,45% 1,41% 2,89% 6,02% 6,37% 4,06% 3,01% 9,83% 2,92% 1,74% 0,95% 107,35% 7,35%
2.010 1.542.393 9,30% 23,66% 23,38% 5,97% 1,26% 2,27% 5,34% 5,47% 4,31% 2,93% 10,03% 2,16% 4,59% 1,05% 101,72% 1,72%
2.011 1.631.213 8,76% 22,81% 22,71% 5,72% 0,23% 2,31% 4,34% 7,33% 3,81% 3,13% 9,49% 1,70% 4,02% 1,09% 97,44% -2,56%

2.012 1.948.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 104,08% 4,08%
2.013 2.120.600 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.014 2.259.600 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 109 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
2.015 2.323.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.016 2.493.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.017 2.663.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.018 2.834.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.019 3.004.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.020 3.175.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.021 3.345.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.022 3.515.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.023 3.686.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.024 3.856.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.025 4.026.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.026 4.197.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.027 4.367.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.028 4.537.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.029 4.708.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.030 4.878.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.031 5.048.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.032 5.219.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.033 5.389.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.034 5.559.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%
2.035 5.730.000 11,55% 23,11% 25,47% 6,92% 1,39% 1,27% 6,84% 7,77% 3,81% 2,89% 6,31% 2,02% 3,80% 0,93% 91,65% -8,35%

Notice that the percentage of the domestic traffic arriving or departing from TIA is practically the total. Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 110 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
YEAR REGIONAL AIRPORTS AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS PERCENTAGE AND MEDIA

∑ 14
Principal
Airports
Aircraft NG BR/VT PK LK SK DH SI BW JP BP BDP JUM JMO IMK Traffic Others
1.998 34.468 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -100,00%
1.999 55.784 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -100,00%
2.000 55.998 20,73% 17,30% 40,67% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 7,31% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 86,01% -13,99%
2.001 55.165 21,39% 18,49% 38,99% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 9,60% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 88,47% -11,53%
2.002 47.941 20,82% 19,76% 33,82% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 10,02% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 84,42% -15,58%
2.003 53.140 23,73% 18,03% 37,42% 16,21% 0,00% 0,00% 9,32% 8,92% 4,42% 3,34% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 121,41% 21,41%
2.004 66.471 17,62% 17,29% 20,46% 11,87% 12,79% 0,00% 8,44% 7,98% 4,42% 4,63% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 105,50% 5,50%
2.005 68.704 18,97% 17,55% 20,80% 10,74% 7,26% 2,38% 9,22% 7,57% 5,25% 4,51% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 104,25% 4,25%
2.006 61.279 22,19% 16,09% 20,74% 14,36% 9,86% 1,71% 8,34% 6,60% 5,26% 4,73% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 109,87% 9,87%
2.007 65.443 15,41% 17,30% 20,10% 16,76% 12,31% 2,26% 5,61% 5,74% 4,52% 5,33% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 105,35% 5,35%
2.008 69.286 14,02% 17,73% 28,44% 17,64% 12,47% 2,47% 6,20% 5,43% 1,37% 4,20% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 109,97% 9,97%
2.009 76.191 12,56% 20,19% 28,24% 16,14% 15,81% 1,54% 5,34% 5,20% 4,36% 5,33% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 114,71% 14,71%
2.010 79.892 10,60% 0,00% 32,02% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 42,63% -57,37%
2.011 81.594 9,99% 0,00% 24,74% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 38,10% -61,90%
2.012 95.825 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.013 102.100 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.014 106.825 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.015 110.875 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.016 119.000 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.017 127.125 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.018 135.275 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 111 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
2.019 143.400 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.020 151.525 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.021 159.650 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.022 167.800 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.023 175.925 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.024 184.050 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.025 192.175 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.026 200.325 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.027 208.450 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.028 216.575 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.029 224.700 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.030 232.850 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.031 240.975 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.032 249.100 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.033 257.225 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.034 265.375 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
2.035 273.500 17,34% 17,97% 28,87% 14,82% 11,75% 2,07% 7,50% 7,44% 4,23% 4,58% 3,25% 0,01% 0,11% 0,00% 119,94% 19,94%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 112 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
AÑO REGIONAL AIRPORTS CARGO PERCENTAGE AND MEDIA
∑ 14
Principal
Airports
Cargo NG BR/VT PK LK SK DH SI BW JP BP BDP JUM JMO IMK Traffic Others
1.998 1.012.681 0,00% 34,96% 29,43% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 64,38% -35,62%
1.999 622.441 0,00% 69,73% 263,32% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 333,04% 233,04%
2.000 2.289.000 40,80% 19,92% 54,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 114,72% 14,72%
2.001 1.912.000 80,96% 19,98% 54,86% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 2,98% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 158,79% 58,79%
2.002 2.713.000 51,60% 7,92% 24,18% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 3,43% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 87,14% -12,86%
2.003 3.122.000 45,92% 6,54% 0,27% 38,53% 0,00% 0,00% 5,18% 1,70% 0,33% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 98,47% -1,53%
2.004 2.317.000 99,59% 12,15% 0,37% 72,19% 262,22% 0,00% 1,81% 3,24% 1,38% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 452,96% 352,96%
2.005 2.974.000 79,58% 13,08% 0,45% 42,75% 134,07% 0,33% 1,68% 2,56% 1,13% 0,30% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 275,93% 175,93%
2.006 3.303.097 103,40% 8,37% 0,31% 53,64% 200,97% 0,37% 1,84% 1,36% 1,20% 0,16% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 371,62% 271,62%
2.007 3.923.923 47,13% 11,94% 0,61% 62,33% 182,41% 0,83% 0,68% 1,41% 1,48% 0,11% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 308,93% 208,93%
2.008 4.803.533 27,14% 16,09% 0,79% 57,03% 141,69% 0,12% 0,69% 1,08% 0,17% 0,04% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 244,85% 144,85%
2.009 4.384.475 31,50% 27,19% 0,91% 59,12% 304,29% 0,13% 0,00% 1,67% 1,33% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 426,14% 326,14%
2.010 3.731.083 22,97% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 22,97% -77,03%
2.011 4.400.231 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -100,00%
2.012 5.221.400 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 378,79% 278,79%
2.013 5.552.450 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.014 5.807.500 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.015 6.017.100 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.016 6.458.375 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.017 6.899.650 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.018 7.340.925 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.019 7.782.200 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.020 8.223.475 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 113 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
2.021 8.664.750 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.022 9.106.025 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.023 9.547.300 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.024 9.988.575 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.025 10.429.850 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.026 10.871.100 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.027 11.312.375 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.028 11.753.650 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.029 12.194.925 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.030 12.636.200 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.031 13.077.475 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.032 13.518.750 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.033 13.960.025 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.034 14.401.300 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
2.035 14.842.575 57,33% 20,66% 35,79% 55,08% 204,28% 0,36% 1,98% 2,16% 1,00% 0,15% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 336,02% 236,02%
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 114 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
13.2.1 Passengers

Following the described method, the regional airports forecast results:

YEAR REGIONAL AIRPORTS PASSENGERS FORECAST


∑ 14
Principal
Pax NG BR/VT PK LK SK DH SI BW JP BP BDP JUM JMO IMK Airports Others
2.012 1.948.000 224.954 450.196 496.096 134.860 27.160 24.835 133.302 151.307 74.175 56.338 122.874 39.354 74.010 18.108 2.027.569 79.569
2.013 2.120.600 244.885 490.086 540.052 146.809 29.566 27.036 145.113 164.714 80.747 61.330 133.762 42.840 80.567 19.713 1.943.496 -177.104
2.014 2.259.600 260.937 522.209 575.451 156.432 31.504 28.808 154.624 175.510 86.040 65.350 142.529 45.649 85.848 21.005 2.070.887 -188.713
2.015 2.323.000 268.258 536.862 591.597 160.821 32.388 29.616 158.963 180.435 88.454 67.184 146.528 46.929 88.257 21.594 2.128.992 -194.008
2.016 2.493.000 287.890 576.150 634.891 172.590 34.758 31.783 170.596 193.639 94.927 72.100 157.252 50.364 94.716 23.174 2.284.794 -208.206
2.017 2.663.000 307.521 615.438 678.185 184.359 37.128 33.951 182.229 206.844 101.400 77.017 167.975 53.798 101.175 24.755 2.440.596 -222.404
2.018 2.834.000 327.268 654.957 721.733 196.197 39.512 36.131 193.931 220.126 107.911 81.963 178.761 57.253 107.671 26.344 2.597.315 -236.685
2.019 3.004.000 346.900 694.245 765.027 207.966 41.883 38.298 205.564 233.330 114.384 86.879 189.484 60.687 114.130 27.924 2.753.117 -250.883
2.020 3.175.000 366.647 733.765 808.575 219.805 44.267 40.478 217.265 246.613 120.896 91.825 200.270 64.141 120.627 29.514 2.909.836 -265.164
2.021 3.345.000 386.278 773.053 851.869 231.574 46.637 42.645 228.898 259.817 127.369 96.741 210.993 67.576 127.086 31.094 3.065.638 -279.362
2.022 3.515.000 405.910 812.341 895.163 243.343 49.007 44.813 240.531 273.021 133.842 101.658 221.717 71.010 133.544 32.675 3.221.441 -293.559
2.023 3.686.000 425.657 851.860 938.712 255.181 51.391 46.993 252.233 286.304 140.353 106.603 232.503 74.465 140.041 34.264 3.378.159 -307.841
2.024 3.856.000 445.288 891.149 982.005 266.950 53.761 49.160 263.866 299.508 146.826 111.520 243.226 77.899 146.500 35.844 3.533.962 -322.038
2.025 4.026.000 464.920 930.437 1.025.299 278.719 56.132 51.327 275.499 312.712 153.300 116.437 253.949 81.333 152.959 37.425 3.689.764 -336.236
2.026 4.197.000 484.667 969.956 1.068.848 290.558 58.516 53.507 287.201 325.995 159.811 121.382 264.735 84.788 159.456 39.014 3.846.483 -350.517
2.027 4.367.000 504.298 1.009.244 1.112.141 302.327 60.886 55.675 298.834 339.199 166.284 126.299 275.458 88.222 165.914 40.595 4.002.285 -364.715
2.028 4.537.000 523.930 1.048.533 1.155.435 314.096 63.256 57.842 310.467 352.404 172.757 131.215 286.181 91.657 172.373 42.175 4.158.087 -378.913
2.029 4.708.000 543.677 1.088.052 1.198.984 325.934 65.640 60.022 322.168 365.686 179.268 136.161 296.968 95.111 178.870 43.764 4.314.806 -393.194
2.030 4.878.000 563.308 1.127.340 1.242.278 337.703 68.010 62.190 333.801 378.890 185.741 141.077 307.691 98.546 185.329 45.345 4.470.608 -407.392
2.031 5.048.000 582.940 1.166.628 1.285.571 349.472 70.381 64.357 345.435 392.095 192.215 145.994 318.414 101.980 191.787 46.925 4.626.410 -421.590
2.032 5.219.000 602.687 1.206.148 1.329.120 361.311 72.765 66.537 357.136 405.377 198.726 150.940 329.200 105.434 198.284 48.515 4.783.129 -435.871
2.033 5.389.000 622.318 1.245.436 1.372.414 373.080 75.135 68.704 368.769 418.581 205.199 155.856 339.923 108.869 204.743 50.095 4.938.931 -450.069
2.034 5.559.000 641.949 1.284.724 1.415.707 384.849 77.505 70.872 380.402 431.786 211.672 160.773 350.646 112.303 211.202 51.675 5.094.734 -464.266
2.035 5.730.000 661.696 1.324.243 1.459.256 396.687 79.889 73.052 392.104 445.068 218.183 165.718 361.433 115.758 217.698 53.265 5.251.452 -478.548
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 115 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Graphic illustration:

REGIONAL AIRPORTS PASSENGERS FORECAST


1.600.000

NG
1.400.000
BR/
VT
1.200.000 PK

LK
1.000.000
SK
Pax

800.000
DH

600.000 SI

BW
400.000
JP

200.000 BP

0
1.995 2.000 2.005 2.010 2.015 2.020 2.025 2.030 2.035 2.040
Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 116 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
13.2.2 Aircraft Movements

Following the described method, the regional airports forecast results:

YEAR REGIONAL AIRPORTS AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS FORECAST


∑ 14
Principal
Aircraft NG BR/VT PK LK SK DH SI BW JP BP BDP JUM JMO IMK Airports Others
2.012 95.825 16.612 17.222 27.666 14.199 11.260 1.987 7.182 7.126 4.053 4.391 3.110 12 105 5 114.930 95.825
2.013 102.100 17.700 18.350 29.478 15.129 11.998 2.117 7.653 7.593 4.318 4.678 3.313 13 111 5 122.456 102.100
2.014 106.825 18.519 19.199 30.842 15.829 12.553 2.215 8.007 7.944 4.518 4.895 3.467 13 117 5 128.123 106.825
2.015 110.875 19.221 19.927 32.011 16.429 13.029 2.299 8.311 8.245 4.689 5.080 3.598 14 121 5 132.980 110.875
2.016 119.000 20.630 21.388 34.357 17.633 13.983 2.467 8.920 8.850 5.033 5.452 3.862 15 130 6 142.725 119.000
2.017 127.125 22.038 22.848 36.703 18.837 14.938 2.636 9.529 9.454 5.377 5.825 4.126 16 139 6 152.470 127.125
2.018 135.275 23.451 24.313 39.056 20.045 15.896 2.805 10.139 10.060 5.721 6.198 4.390 17 148 7 162.245 135.275
2.019 143.400 24.860 25.773 41.402 21.249 16.851 2.973 10.748 10.664 6.065 6.570 4.654 18 156 7 171.990 143.400
2.020 151.525 26.268 27.233 43.747 22.453 17.805 3.142 11.357 11.268 6.409 6.943 4.917 19 165 7 181.735 151.525
2.021 159.650 27.677 28.694 46.093 23.657 18.760 3.310 11.966 11.873 6.752 7.315 5.181 20 174 8 191.480 159.650
2.022 167.800 29.090 30.158 48.446 24.864 19.718 3.479 12.577 12.479 7.097 7.688 5.446 21 183 8 201.254 167.800
2.023 175.925 30.498 31.619 50.792 26.068 20.673 3.648 13.186 13.083 7.441 8.061 5.709 22 192 9 210.999 175.925
2.024 184.050 31.907 33.079 53.138 27.272 21.627 3.816 13.795 13.687 7.784 8.433 5.973 23 201 9 220.744 184.050
2.025 192.175 33.315 34.539 55.484 28.476 22.582 3.985 14.404 14.291 8.128 8.805 6.237 24 210 9 230.489 192.175
2.026 200.325 34.728 36.004 57.837 29.684 23.540 4.154 15.015 14.898 8.472 9.179 6.501 25 219 10 240.264 200.325
2.027 208.450 36.137 37.464 60.182 30.888 24.495 4.322 15.624 15.502 8.816 9.551 6.765 26 227 10 250.009 208.450
2.028 216.575 37.545 38.925 62.528 32.092 25.449 4.491 16.233 16.106 9.160 9.923 7.029 27 236 11 259.754 216.575
2.029 224.700 38.954 40.385 64.874 33.296 26.404 4.659 16.842 16.710 9.503 10.296 7.292 28 245 11 269.499 224.700
2.030 232.850 40.367 41.850 67.227 34.503 27.362 4.828 17.453 17.316 9.848 10.669 7.557 29 254 11 279.274 232.850
2.031 240.975 41.775 43.310 69.573 35.707 28.316 4.996 18.062 17.921 10.192 11.041 7.820 30 263 12 289.018 240.975
2.032 249.100 43.184 44.770 71.919 36.911 29.271 5.165 18.671 18.525 10.535 11.413 8.084 31 272 12 298.763 249.100
2.033 257.225 44.592 46.231 74.264 38.115 30.226 5.333 19.280 19.129 10.879 11.786 8.348 32 281 13 308.508 257.225
2.034 265.375 46.005 47.695 76.617 39.323 31.184 5.502 19.891 19.735 11.224 12.159 8.612 33 289 13 318.283 265.375
2.035 273.500 47.414 49.156 78.963 40.527 32.138 5.671 20.500 20.339 11.567 12.531 8.876 34 298 13 328.028 273.500
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 117 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Graphic Illustration:

REGIONAL AIRPORTS AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS FORECAST


NG
90.000
BR/VT
80.000
PK
70.000
LK
60.000
SK

50.000 DH
Mov

40.000 SI

BW
30.000
JP
20.000
BP
10.000
BDP
0 JUM

-10.000 JMO
2.000 2.005 2.010 2.015 2.020 2.025 2.030 2.035 2.040
IMK
Year
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 118 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
13.2.3 Cargo

Following the described method, the regional airports forecast results:

AÑO REGIONAL AIRPORTS CARGO FORECAST


∑ 14
Principal
Cargo NG BR/VT PK LK SK DH SI BW JP BP BDP JUM JMO IMK Airports Others
2.012 5.221.400 2.993.261 1.078.578 1.868.806 2.876.184 10.666.084 18.678 103.312 112.668 52.443 7.891 0 0 0 0 19.777.905 14.556.505
2.013 5.552.450 3.183.042 1.146.962 1.987.293 3.058.541 11.342.341 19.863 109.862 119.811 55.768 8.391 0 0 0 0 18.657.314 13.104.864
2.014 5.807.500 3.329.254 1.199.648 2.078.578 3.199.034 11.863.348 20.775 114.909 125.315 58.330 8.777 0 0 0 0 19.514.331 13.706.831
2.015 6.017.100 3.449.411 1.242.945 2.153.597 3.314.491 12.291.511 21.525 119.056 129.838 60.435 9.094 0 0 0 0 20.218.628 14.201.528
2.016 6.458.375 3.702.379 1.334.098 2.311.535 3.557.565 13.192.931 23.103 127.787 139.359 64.867 9.761 0 0 0 0 21.701.398 15.243.023
2.017 6.899.650 3.955.348 1.425.252 2.469.473 3.800.640 14.094.352 24.682 136.518 148.881 69.299 10.427 0 0 0 0 23.184.168 16.284.518
2.018 7.340.925 4.208.317 1.516.405 2.627.411 4.043.714 14.995.772 26.261 145.249 158.403 73.731 11.094 0 0 0 0 24.666.938 17.326.013
2.019 7.782.200 4.461.286 1.607.559 2.785.349 4.286.788 15.897.192 27.839 153.980 167.925 78.164 11.761 0 0 0 0 26.149.708 18.367.508
2.020 8.223.475 4.714.255 1.698.713 2.943.287 4.529.862 16.798.613 29.418 162.712 177.447 82.596 12.428 0 0 0 0 27.632.478 19.409.003
2.021 8.664.750 4.967.223 1.789.866 3.101.225 4.772.937 17.700.033 30.996 171.443 186.969 87.028 13.095 0 0 0 0 29.115.248 20.450.498
2.022 9.106.025 5.220.192 1.881.020 3.259.163 5.016.011 18.601.454 32.575 180.174 196.491 91.460 13.762 0 0 0 0 30.598.018 21.491.993
2.023 9.547.300 5.473.161 1.972.173 3.417.101 5.259.085 19.502.874 34.153 188.905 206.013 95.892 14.429 0 0 0 0 32.080.788 22.533.488
2.024 9.988.575 5.726.130 2.063.327 3.575.038 5.502.159 20.404.294 35.732 197.636 215.534 100.324 15.096 0 0 0 0 33.563.558 23.574.983
2.025 10.429.850 5.979.099 2.154.481 3.732.976 5.745.234 21.305.715 37.310 206.367 225.056 104.756 15.763 0 0 0 0 35.046.328 24.616.478
2.026 10.871.100 6.232.053 2.245.629 3.890.905 5.988.294 22.207.084 38.889 215.098 234.578 109.188 16.430 0 0 0 0 36.529.014 25.657.914
2.027 11.312.375 6.485.022 2.336.783 4.048.843 6.231.368 23.108.504 40.467 223.829 244.100 113.620 17.096 0 0 0 0 38.011.784 26.699.409
2.028 11.753.650 6.737.991 2.427.936 4.206.781 6.474.443 24.009.925 42.046 232.560 253.621 118.052 17.763 0 0 0 0 39.494.554 27.740.904
2.029 12.194.925 6.990.960 2.519.090 4.364.719 6.717.517 24.911.345 43.625 241.292 263.143 122.484 18.430 0 0 0 0 40.977.324 28.782.399
2.030 12.636.200 7.243.928 2.610.244 4.522.657 6.960.591 25.812.765 45.203 250.023 272.665 126.917 19.097 0 0 0 0 42.460.094 29.823.894
2.031 13.077.475 7.496.897 2.701.397 4.680.595 7.203.666 26.714.186 46.782 258.754 282.187 131.349 19.764 0 0 0 0 43.942.864 30.865.389
2.032 13.518.750 7.749.866 2.792.551 4.838.533 7.446.740 27.615.606 48.360 267.485 291.709 135.781 20.431 0 0 0 0 45.425.634 31.906.884
2.033 13.960.025 8.002.835 2.883.704 4.996.471 7.689.814 28.517.026 49.939 276.216 301.231 140.213 21.098 0 0 0 0 46.908.404 32.948.379
2.034 14.401.300 8.255.804 2.974.858 5.154.409 7.932.888 29.418.447 51.517 284.947 310.753 144.645 21.765 0 0 0 0 48.391.174 33.989.874
2.035 14.842.575 8.508.773 3.066.012 5.312.347 8.175.963 30.319.867 53.096 293.679 320.275 149.077 22.432 0 0 0 0 49.873.944 35.031.369
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 119 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Graphic Illustration:

REGIONAL AIRPORTS CARGO FORECAST Cargo

35.000.000 NG

30.000.000 BR/VT

PK
25.000.000
LK
20.000.000
SK
Cargo (Tn)

15.000.000
DH
10.000.000
SI

5.000.000 BW

0 JP

-5.000.000 BP
2.000 2.005 2.010 2.015 2.020 2.025 2.030 2.035 2.040
BDP
Year

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 120 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
14 TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR FORECASTING

14.1 AVAILABLE DATA

The following historical data are needed fore an international medium term
forecasting:

• Peak hours Forecast, focused on daily data available for the last 3 years

The present data analysis has obtained the following series:

• Daily hourly data 2011 pax and cargo.


• Annual data, from 1981 to 2011

14.2 TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR HYPHOTESIS AND USED MODEL

Since TRIBHUVAN airport is the principal hub international airport in Nepal, its air
traffic study is specially important for future airport designs and planning.

For an appropriate future design criteria, the future peak day and peak hour needs
to be calculated. These peak day and peak hour will be the starting point for the
future airport sizing.

Different criteria are acceptable depending on recommendation sources. Following


are described the most used ones:

• ICAO Doc. 9184 Airport Planning Manual Section 3.4. B.5: 30º- 40º day
of the most busy day of the year.
• IATA Airport Development Reference Manual Section C 2.5.4. suggests
several methods for peak days and hours:
o 85th percentile
o 40th busy hour or day of the year
o 30th busy hour or day of the year
o The second busiest day in an average week
during the peak month- an average weekly
pattern of traffic is then calculated for that
month.
o
• FAA Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport Document: Hourly peaking
can be defined in different ways. The typical approach is to develop
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 121 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
“design hour” flows of passengers and aircraft. The design hour is the
estimate of the peak hour of the average day of the busiest month. An
alternative definition of the design hour, appropriate for large airports that
have several busy months, is the peak hour that occurs about 10 percent of
the days of the year.

In the present study, the detailed following criteria has been chosen ( according to
referred 30th busy day of the year.

• Since the only complete daily and hourly data available are the 2011 data,
2011 peak day and peak hour have been searched.

• PASSENGER AND CARGO:

o From the daily traffic, the 30º position in the peak days ranking has
been chosen, as IATA recommendations suggests. This 30º day will
be the design day in 2011. This day will be extrapolated to future
years, 2015,2025 and 2035, according to the LT forecasting, and this
30º day data will be the design day data for the future.
o From these peak days, peak hours (maximum) will be identified in
order to know the maximum capacity needed in these hours in arrival
or departure passenger areas, maximum capacity needed in these
hours in runways and taxiways, and maximum cargo capacity
needed in these hours.
As recommendations indicates, it´s considered that during the more than
30th DESIGN DAY busy days the passenger and cargo management will be
saturated, and with a suitable scheduling will be solved.

• AIRCRAFT:

o For aircraft traffic, the most busy day and hour has been considered
as DESIGN DAY AND HOUR, because in all case, every aircraft
must be managed properly in air side by Control Tower.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 122 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
14.2.1 TRIBHUVAN PEAK DAY RESULTS

14.2.1.1 Passengers

2011 daily data has been processed. Due to the length of this daily data series,
only the results and graphics are reflected in this document. For more details,
annexed documents are available.

Passenger Peak Day

18000
Design Day: TOTAL
16000 Total pax: 14535 DAILY PAX
Day: 21/10/2011
14000

12000
Design Day:
International pax: 9045
10000 Day: 18/10/2011
Pax

DAILY
8000
PAX DOM

6000

4000
Design Day:
Domestic pax: 5776
2000 Day: 08/11/2011

0 DAILY
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 PAX INT

Descendent daily passenger order

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

As observed in the graphic, design days, international as well as domestic and


total, are concentrated in October and November, most busy months. (For more
details, see section 2.2. Air Traffic Seasonal Behaviour). Seasonal behaviour is
very regular, and not too sharp,

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 123 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Following, a brief extract of the most busy days to peak day ( 30º position):

MOST BUSY DAYS TO PEAK DAY

Domestic Passengers International Passengers Total passengers


1 07/11/2011 7135 24/10/2011 10528 24/10/2011 16845
2 07/10/2011 6708 11/05/2011 10516 11/10/2011 15880
3 27/10/2011 6685 11/03/2011 10400 30/09/2011 15828
4 05/05/2011 6648 17/11/2011 10172 30/10/2011 15767
5 16/10/2011 6636 11/08/2011 10111 22/10/2011 15728
6 30/10/2011 6532 11/06/2011 10105 25/10/2011 15698
7 08/10/2011 6485 20/10/2011 9890 20/10/2011 15609
8 04/10/2011 6425 22/10/2011 9836 11/05/2011 15489
9 02/10/2011 6365 11/07/2011 9765 16/10/2011 15478
10 24/10/2011 6317 31/10/2011 9762 27/10/2011 15425
11 23/10/2011 6307 10/01/2011 9703 23/10/2011 15409
12 10/11/2011 6243 11/10/2011 9695 11/03/2011 15405
13 30/09/2011 6238 25/10/2011 9695 31/10/2011 15313
14 11/10/2011 6185 30/09/2011 9590 29/10/2011 15130
15 09/10/2011 6160 11/01/2011 9555 27/09/2011 15058
16 09/11/2011 6136 11/12/2011 9552 17/10/2011 14984
17 29/10/2011 6108 27/09/2011 9484 11/11/2011 14840
18 19/10/2011 6102 26/09/2011 9468 04/10/2011 14795
19 11/11/2011 6081 16/11/2011 9365 11/04/2011 14759
20 29/04/2011 6051 15/10/2011 9333 08/11/2011 14758
21 14/10/2011 6036 14/11/2011 9332 18/10/2011 14744
22 25/10/2011 6003 17/10/2011 9287 05/05/2011 14702
23 12/10/2011 5974 11/04/2011 9262 25/11/2011 14698
24 10/10/2011 5929 10/03/2011 9250 29/04/2011 14634
25 22/10/2011 5892 30/10/2011 9235 19/10/2011 14620
26 20/11/2011 5884 28/11/2011 9176 28/11/2011 14589
27 01/10/2011 5832 10/02/2011 9160 20/11/2011 14584
28 26/10/2011 5815 21/10/2011 9125 10/10/2011 14573
29 25/11/2011 5809 23/10/2011 9102 10/03/2011 14538
30 08/11/2011 5776 18/10/2011 9045 21/10/2011 14535

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 124 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
14.2.1.2 Aircraft Movements

In case of aircraft movement peak day choose, the maximum movement traffic day
has been chosen, because of the above exposed reasons.

AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS PEAK DAY

500
TOTAL
Design Day: DAILY
450
Total Movements: 450 MOV
400 Day: 07/11/2011

350

300 Design Day:


Domestic movements:
Mov

250 DAILY
378
Day: 07/11/2011 MOV
200 DOM
Design Day:
150 International
movements:88
100 Day: 11/08/2011
50
DAILY
0
MOV INT
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Descendent daily movement order

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 125 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Following, a brief extract of the most busy days to peak day ( 30º position):

MOST BUSY DAYS TO PEAK DAY

International
Domestic Aircraft Aircraft Total aircraft
Movements Movements Movements
1 07/11/2011 378 11/08/2011 88 07/11/2011 450
2 09/11/2011 352 30/10/2011 86 27/10/2011 422
3 27/10/2011 348 10/03/2011 86 09/11/2011 416
4 03/10/2011 334 14/11/2011 84 30/10/2011 406
5 29/04/2011 326 31/10/2011 84 24/10/2011 402
6 24/10/2011 324 11/03/2011 84 29/04/2011 396
7 10/11/2011 324 17/11/2011 84 03/10/2011 396
8 16/10/2011 322 11/07/2011 84 16/10/2011 396
9 30/10/2011 320 11/04/2011 82 10/11/2011 394
10 23/10/2011 318 28/11/2011 82 10/10/2011 392
11 04/10/2011 318 19/11/2011 82 11/11/2011 390
12 08/10/2011 314 12/06/2011 82 23/10/2011 390
13 10/10/2011 314 11/06/2011 82 04/10/2011 388
14 08/11/2011 312 12/12/2011 82 22/10/2011 386
15 22/10/2011 312 11/10/2011 82 11/10/2011 386
16 11/11/2011 312 29/10/2011 80 08/11/2011 384
17 15/04/2011 308 11/05/2011 80 29/10/2011 382
18 07/10/2011 304 15/11/2011 80 18/10/2011 382
19 18/10/2011 304 11/01/2011 80 20/11/2011 380
20 11/10/2011 304 17/10/2011 80 21/04/2011 378
21 09/10/2011 304 10/04/2011 80 15/04/2011 378
22 29/10/2011 302 10/02/2011 80 08/10/2011 376
23 28/04/2011 302 12/09/2011 80 09/10/2011 374
24 20/11/2011 302 16/11/2011 80 28/04/2011 372
25 21/04/2011 300 30/09/2011 80 17/10/2011 372
26 23/04/2011 298 10/06/2011 80 10/04/2011 370
27 16/04/2011 298 10/10/2011 80 25/10/2011 368
28 26/10/2011 296 14/04/2011 80 16/04/2011 368
29 02/10/2011 296 16/12/2011 78 07/10/2011 368
30 26/04/2011 296 29/11/2011 78 11/04/2011 366

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 126 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
14.2.1.3 Cargo

CARGO PEAK DAY

90000
TOTAL
DAILY
80000
CARGO

70000
Design Day:
60000 Total Cargo: 53575
Day: 31/08/2011
50000
Cargo

DAILY
40000 CARGO
Design Day: DOM
International cargo:
30000
40484
Day: 20/06/2011
20000
Design Day:
Domestic cargo:
10000 23849
Day: 25/11/2011 DAILY
0
CARGO
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 INT

Descendent daily cargo order

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

Following a brief extract of the most busy days to peak day ( 30º position):

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 127 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
MOST BUSY DAYS TO PEAK DAY

Domestic Cargo International Cargo Total Cargo


1 09/11/2011 52213 05/06/2011 58586 05/06/2011 77741
2 10/11/2011 39835 10/03/2011 56420 29/04/2011 77496
3 20/11/2011 38725 04/06/2011 55883 09/11/2011 74988
4 24/11/2011 38356 21/01/2011 53949 04/08/2011 70534
5 30/08/2011 35416 26/10/2011 52002 13/09/2011 68200
6 27/10/2011 34717 03/04/2011 51687 25/05/2011 67401
7 04/08/2011 33761 10/02/2011 50697 26/10/2011 67066
8 29/04/2011 32827 04/11/2011 49814 10/03/2011 65281
9 22/11/2011 30378 19/01/2011 49677 04/06/2011 64887
10 01/09/2011 29672 07/10/2011 49596 30/08/2011 63382
11 13/09/2011 29093 25/05/2011 48442 10/02/2011 62495
12 02/06/2011 28953 10/01/2011 46669 27/10/2011 62184
13 12/08/2011 28033 04/10/2011 46475,2 27/05/2011 61715
14 01/06/2011 27860 13/06/2011 46075 01/09/2011 61089
15 29/08/2011 26513 22/07/2011 45466 03/04/2011 60104
16 11/08/2011 26454 18/03/2011 44981 18/07/2011 59912
17 06/08/2011 26448 29/04/2011 44669 14/09/2011 59278
18 23/11/2011 26427 04/04/2011 43184 04/10/2011 58442,2
19 20/08/2011 25970 09/03/2011 43095 25/10/2011 58171
20 11/11/2011 25608 20/07/2011 42873 21/01/2011 58062
21 27/05/2011 25501 25/03/2011 41792,3 23/11/2011 57974
22 10/08/2011 25494 18/07/2011 41267 22/04/2011 56364
23 14/09/2011 25490 17/03/2011 41132 04/11/2011 56091
24 05/05/2011 25125 05/10/2011 41003 25/03/2011 55825,3
25 21/11/2011 24909 14/04/2011 40997 06/08/2011 55363
26 04/09/2011 24867 24/10/2011 40971 20/11/2011 54973
27 28/04/2011 24449 07/01/2011 40844 19/01/2011 54607
28 27/08/2011 24385 27/06/2011 40804 24/11/2011 54109
29 26/08/2011 24040 06/10/2011 40752 13/06/2011 54087
30 25/11/2011 23849 20/06/2011 40484 31/08/2011 53575

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 128 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
14.2.2 TRIBHUVAN PEAK HOUR RESULTS

14.2.2.1 Passengers

Following, each peak day, domestic and international peak day hourly
distribution is described, and peak hour is identified.

Arrival and Departure peak hour passengers have been distinguished for a
future terminals area sizing.
International Passenger Peak
Domestic Passenger Peak Hour Hour
08/11/2011 18/10/2011
HOUR Arrival Departure HOUR Arrival Departure
1 00-01 0 0 1 00-01 0 0
2 01-02 0 0 2 01-02 0 0
3 02-03 0 101 3 02-03 144 36
4 03-04 71 404 4 03-04 543 0
5 04-05 284 312 5 04-05 96 366
6 05-06 288 281 6 05-06 485 382
7 06-07 405 276 7 06-07 203 213
8 07-08 262 247 8 07-08 0 312
9 08-09 193 389 9 08-09 790 0
10 09-10 402 157 10 09-10 346 492
11 10-11 204 330 11 10-11 370 432
12 11-12 277 305 12 11-12 175 443
13 12-13 268 91 13 12-13 474 0
14 13-14 175 0 14 13-14 429 194
15 14-15 91 66 15 14-15 0 133
16 15-16 0 0 16 15-16 146 699
17 16-17 0 0 17 16-17 347 0
18 17-18 66 0 18 17-18 191 520
19 18-19 0 0 19 18-19 0 84
20 19-20 0 0 20 19-20 0 0
21 20-21 0 0 21 20-21 0 0
22 21-22 0 0 22 21-22 0 0
23 22-23 0 0 23 22-23 0 0
24 23-24 0 0 24 23-24 0 0
Empty 0 27 Empty 0 0
TOTAL 2986 2986 TOTAL 4739 4306
Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 129 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Graphic illustration:

DOMESTIC PASSENGER PEAK HOUR


08/11/2011
450
404
400 405
350
300
250 Arrival
Pax

200
Departure
150
100
50
0
-50
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER PEAK HOUR


18/10/2011
900
800
790 699
700
600 Arrival
500
Departure
Pax

400
300
200
100
0 0
-100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 130 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
14.2.2.2 Aircraft Movements

Following, each peak day, domestic and international peak day hourly
distribution is described, and peak hour is identified.

Arrival and Departure peak hour movements have been distinguished for a
future air side area sizing.

Domestic Movement Peak Hour International Movement Peak Hour


07/11/2011 11/08/2011
HOUR Arrival Departure HOUR Arrival Departure
0 00-01 0 7 0 00-01 0 0
1 01-02 5 17 1 01-02 0 0
2 02-03 16 21 2 02-03 0 0
3 03-04 22 18 3 03-04 0 1
4 04-05 11 21 4 04-05 2 0
5 05-06 26 11 5 05-06 6 4
6 06-07 11 16 6 06-07 4 1
7 07-08 16 14 7 07-08 3 6
8 08-09 13 20 8 08-09 6 3
9 09-10 16 14 9 09-10 1 5
10 10-11 18 14 10 10-11 4 3
11 11-12 19 5 11 11-12 3 3
12 12-13 3 6 12 12-13 2 2
13 13-14 3 1 13 13-14 1 1
14 14-15 4 0 14 14-15 1 1
15 15-16 1 0 15 15-16 3 3
16 16-17 0 0 16 16-17 4 3
17 17-18 0 0 17 17-18 0 4
18 18-19 0 0 18 18-19 0 1
19 19-20 0 0 19 19-20 0 0
20 20-21 0 0 20 20-21 0 0
21 21-22 0 0 21 21-22 0 0
22 22-23 0 0 22 22-23 0 0
23 23-24 0 0 23 23-24 0 0
Empty 5 4 Empty 4 3
TOTAL 189 189 TOTAL 44 44

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 131 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Graphic illustration:

DOMESTIC MOVEMENTS PEAK HOUR


07/11/2011
30
25 26
21
20 21
Arrival
15
Mov

10 Departure

5
0
-5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS PEAK HOUR


11/08/2011
7
6 6 6
6
5
Arrival
4
Mov

3 Departure
2
1
0
-1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 132 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
14.2.2.3 Cargo

Following, each peak day, domestic and international peak day hourly
distribution is described, and peak hour is identified.

Arrival and Departure peak hour cargo have been distinguished for a future
cargo terminals area sizing.

Domestic Cargo Peak Hour International Cargo Peak Hour


25/11/2011 20/06/2011
HOUR Departure HOUR Arrival Departure
Arrival
0 00-01 0 2305 0 00-01 0 0
1 01-02 0 1195 1 01-02 0 0
2 02-03 0 5576 2 02-03 0 0
3 03-04 300 3305 3 03-04 0 1208
4 04-05 2 5442 4 04-05 70 0
5 05-06 740 648 5 05-06 0 0
6 06-07 476 339 6 06-07 696 300
7 07-08 195 422 7 07-08 283 0
8 08-09 200 454 8 08-09 258 8172
9 09-10 268 184 9 09-10 9000 696
10 10-11 358 156 10 10-11 2169 6327
11 11-12 30 780 11 11-12 51 2223
12 12-13 444 0 12 12-13 0 0
13 13-14 0 0 13 13-14 400 1576
14 14-15 30 0 14 14-15 0 0
15 15-16 0 0 15 15-16 2 0
16 16-17 0 0 16 16-17 0 1902
17 17-18 0 0 17 17-18 0 5151
18 18-19 0 0 18 18-19 0 0
19 19-20 0 0 19 19-20 0 0
20 20-21 0 0 20 20-21 0 0
21 21-22 0 0 21 21-22 0 0
22 22-23 0 0 22 22-23 0 0
23 23-24 0 0 23 23-24 0 0
Empty 0 0 Empty 0 0
TOTA
L 3043 20806 TOTAL 12929 27555

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 133 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
Graphic illustration:

DOMESTIC CARGO PEAK HOUR


25/11/2011
6000
5576
5000
4000
Arrival
3000
Cargo

2000 Departure

1000
740
0
-1000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

INTERNATIONAL CARGO PEAK HOUR


20/06/2011
10000
9000
8000 8172
6000 Arrival
Cargo

4000 Departure

2000

-2000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Day Hours

Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 134 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
14.2.3 TRIBHUVAN DESIGN DAY

Departing from the 2011 peak day analysis, the future years design day is obtained, extrapolating the results according
to the LT forecasting results:

DESIGN PEAK DAYS

Pax Design Peak Day


2011 2015 2025 2035
Domestic Design Peak Day 08/11/2011 5776 0,354092% 8226 2323000 14256 20289
International Design Peak Day 18/10/2011 9045 0,334309% 13820 4134000 23957 34093
Total Design Peak Day 21/10/2011 14535 0,335156% 21641 6457000 37511 53384

Cargo Design Peak Day


2011 2015 2025 2035
Domestic Design Peak Day 25/11/2011 23849 0,541994% 32612,34 6017100 56529,19 80445,91
International Design Peak Day 20/06/2011 40484 0,459144% 114062,77 24842500 171739,49 216034,8
Total Design Peak Day 31/08/2011 53575 0,405333% 125084,27 30859600 193887,79 250878,1

Movement Design Peak Day


2011 2015 2025 2035
Domestic Design Peak Day 07/11/2011 378 0,463269% 513,65 110875 890,29 1267,042
International Design Peak Day 11/08/2011 88 0,356795% 113,82 31900 171,35 215,5936
Total Design Peak Day 07/11/2011 450 0,423498% 604,65 142775 1017,24 1414,164

• % data: previous passenger/movement/cargo data over the total of the year


Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 135 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
14.2.4 TRIBHUVAN DESIGN DAY PEAK HOUR

Departing from the 2011 peak hour analysis, the future years peak hour is obtained, extrapolating the results according
to the LT forecasting results:
DESIGN PEAK HOURS

Pax Design Peak Hour


Hour 2011 2015 2025 2035
Domestic Design Peak Day 08/11/2011 Arrival 05-06 288 0,017656% 410 711 1012
Departure 06-07 276 0,016920% 393 681 970
International Design Peak Day 18/10/2011 Arrival 08-09 790 0,029199% 1207 2092 2978
Departure 15-16 699 0,025836% 1068 1851 2635

Cargo Design Peak Hour


Hour 2011 2015 2025 2035
Domestic Design Peak Day 25/11/2011 Arrival 10-11 358 0,008136% 490 849 1208
Departure 06-07 339 0,007704% 464 804 1143
International Design Peak Day 20/06/2011 Arrival 09-10 9000 0,102072% 25357 38179 48027
Departure 08-09 8172 0,092682% 23024 34667 43608

Movements Design Peak Hour


Hour 2011 2015 2025 2035
Domestic Design Peak Day 07/11/2011 Arrival 05-06 26 0,031865% 35 61 87
Departure 04-05 21 0,025737% 29 49 70
International Design Peak Day 11/08/2011 Arrival 05-06 6 0,024327% 8 12 15
Departure 07-08 6 0,024327% 8 12 15

• % data: previous passenger/movement/cargo data over the total of the year Source: Ermc-Ineco-Prointec

2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 136 of 147


Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
15 NEPAL INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS EFFECTS IN AIR TRAFFIC
FORECAST.

Studied scenarios are based in past evolution and its projection in future.

A complementary study could analyze other future scenarios considering


the Nepal authorities planning and infrastructure decisions. Possible
infrastructure improvements could vary and influence:

 Nepal GDP, and consequently the air traffic projection. These


GDP variations increase international traffic according to the
optimist model.
 The domestic and international air traffic distribution among all
airports in Nepal.

These scenarios could be the following:

SIA international airport could be ready and operative in 2022:

1. With a 1% impact in GDP during 2018, 2019 and 2% in 2020


and afterwards.
2. SIA could receive all international traffic, and TIA would
become mostly a domestic airport.

PK international airport ready and operative in 2020:

1. With a 1% impact in GDP during 2016, 2017 and 2% during


2018 and afterwards.
2. PK could receive some Indian traffic, growing its international
scope and loosing domestic percentage. Consequently, TIA
would loose this international scope and PK-TIA domestic
traffic.

Gautam Buddha airport remodelling ready and operative in 2015:

1. With a 0,3% impact in GDP during 2016, 2017 and 0,5%


during 2018 and afterwards.
2. PK could receive some international traffic and bigger
aircrafts, growing its international scope and also domestic
percentage.

So, domestic and international traffic would in general grow according to


GDP variations, and at the same time, this growing would be redistributed
between the improved infrastructure and planned air traffic.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 137 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast Draft
16 ANNEX 1: SPSS MAIN RESULTS EXTRACTS

16.1 STD

Resume

Regression Statistics
Multiple Correlation Rate 0,88510707
Decision Rate R^2 0,78341452
Adjusted R^2 0,77899441
Typical Error 12223,8086
Observations 51

VARIANCE ANALYSIS
Freedom Square Square F Critical
Degrees Sums Average F Value
Regression 1 2,6483E+10 2,6483E+10 177,238617 6,7333E-18
Reminders 49 7321653380 149421498
Total 50 3,3805E+10

Typical Inferior Superior Inferior Superior


Rates Error Statistic t Probability 95% 95% 95,0% 95,0%
- - - - - -
Interception 80962,8549 14489,2307 5,58779527 1,0034E-06 110080,054 51845,6562 110080,054 51845,6562
Variable X 1 1428,27702 107,283584 13,3130995 6,7333E-18 1212,68259 1643,87145 1212,68259 1643,87145

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 138 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast
16.2 STI

Temporal Series Modeler

[Conjunto_de_datos1] D:\PROINTEC\ASISTENCIAS TÉCNICAS\NEPAL\2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development\Air


Traffic Demand\INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC STUDY\STD-STI\SPSS STD-STI Natconsumprice11.sav

De scri pción del m odelo

Tipo de modelo
ID del modelo VA R00001 Modelo_1 ARIMA (1,0,0)(0,0,0)

Model Resume

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 139 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast
Aj uste del modelo

Percentil
Es tadístico de ajus te Media ET Mínimo Máximo 5 10 25 50 75 90 95
R-cuadrado est acionaria ,266 . ,266 ,266 ,266 ,266 ,266 ,266 ,266 ,266 ,266
R-cuadrado ,200 . ,200 ,200 ,200 ,200 ,200 ,200 ,200 ,200 ,200
RMSE ,217 . ,217 ,217 ,217 ,217 ,217 ,217 ,217 ,217 ,217
MA PE 7,333 . 7,333 7,333 7,333 7,333 7,333 7,333 7,333 7,333 7,333
MaxAP E 37,362 . 37,362 37,362 37,362 37,362 37,362 37,362 37,362 37,362 37,362
MA E ,131 . ,131 ,131 ,131 ,131 ,131 ,131 ,131 ,131 ,131
MaxAE 1,027 . 1,027 1,027 1,027 1,027 1,027 1,027 1,027 1,027 1,027
BIC normalizado -2, 905 . -2, 905 -2, 905 -2, 905 -2, 905 -2, 905 -2, 905 -2, 905 -2, 905 -2, 905

Estadísticos del modelo

Es tadís ticos
de ajus te del
modelo Ljung-Box Q(18) Número de
Número de R-cuadrado valores
Modelo predictores es tacionaria Es tadís ticos GL Sig. atípicos
VAR00001-Modelo_1 0 ,266 15,382 17 ,568 0

16.3 LTI

PREDICT THRU YEAR 2035 .


* Time Series Modeler.
TSMODEL

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 140 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast
/MODELSUMMARY PRINT=[ MODELFIT]
/MODELSTATISTICS DISPLAY=YES MODELFIT=[ SRSQUARE]
/SERIESPLOT OBSERVED FORECAST
/OUTPUTFILTER DISPLAY=ALLMODELS
/SAVE PREDICTED(Pronosticado)
/AUXILIARY CILEVEL=95 MAXACFLAGS=24
/MISSING USERMISSING=EXCLUDE
/MODEL DEPENDENT=PAXINT INDEPENDENT=INDIAGDP NEPALGDP
PREFIX='Modelo'
/ARIMA AR=[0] DIFF=2 MA=[0]
TRANSFORM=NONE CONSTANT=YES
/TRANSFERFUNCTION VARIABLES=NEPALGDP NUM=[1] DENOM=[0] DIFF=0 DELAY=1
TRANSFORM=NONE
/TRANSFERFUNCTION VARIABLES=INDIAGDP NUM=[0] DENOM=[0] DIFF=0 DELAY=0
TRANSFORM=NONE
/AUTOOUTLIER DETECT=OFF.

Temporal Series Modeler

[Conjunto_de_datos0]

De scri pción del m ode lo

Tipo de modelo
ID del modelo PA XINT Modelo_1 ARIMA (0,2,0)

Model Resume

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 141 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast
Aj uste del modelo

Percentil
Es tadístico de ajus te Media ET Mínimo Máximo 5 10 25 50 75 90 95
R-cuadrado est acionaria ,087 . ,087 ,087 ,087 ,087 ,087 ,087 ,087 ,087 ,087
R-cuadrado ,985 . ,985 ,985 ,985 ,985 ,985 ,985 ,985 ,985 ,985
RMSE 120380,4 . 120380,4 120380,4 120380,4 120380,4 120380,4 120380,4 120380,4 120380,4 120380,4
MA PE 6,560 . 6,560 6,560 6,560 6,560 6,560 6,560 6,560 6,560 6,560
MaxAP E 25,782 . 25,782 25,782 25,782 25,782 25,782 25,782 25,782 25,782 25,782
MA E 81431, 941 . 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941 81431, 941
MaxAE 299153,1 . 299153,1 299153,1 299153,1 299153,1 299153,1 299153,1 299153,1 299153,1 299153,1
BIC normalizado 23,830 . 23,830 23,830 23,830 23,830 23,830 23,830 23,830 23,830 23,830

Estadísticos del modelo

Es tadís ticos
de ajus te del
modelo Ljung-Box Q(18) Número de
Número de R-cuadrado valores
Modelo predictores es tacionaria Es tadís ticos GL Sig. atípicos
PAXINT-Modelo_1 2 ,087 11,691 18 ,863 0

PREDICT THRU END.


* Time Series Modeler.
TSMODEL
/MODELSUMMARY PRINT=[ MODELFIT]
/MODELSTATISTICS DISPLAY=YES MODELFIT=[ SRSQUARE]
/SERIESPLOT OBSERVED FORECAST
/OUTPUTFILTER DISPLAY=ALLMODELS
/AUXILIARY CILEVEL=95 MAXACFLAGS=24

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 142 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast
/MISSING USERMISSING=EXCLUDE
/MODEL DEPENDENT=PAXINT INDEPENDENT=INDIAGDP NEPALGDP
PREFIX='Modelo'
/EXPERTMODELER TYPE=[ARIMA EXSMOOTH]
/AUTOOUTLIER DETECT=OFF .

PREDICT THRU YEAR 2035 .


* Time Series Modeler.
TSMODEL
/MODELSUMMARY PRINT=[ MODELFIT]
/MODELSTATISTICS DISPLAY=YES MODELFIT=[ SRSQUARE]
/SERIESPLOT OBSERVED FORECAST
/OUTPUTFILTER DISPLAY=ALLMODELS
/SAVE PREDICTED(Pronosticado)
/AUXILIARY CILEVEL=95 MAXACFLAGS=24
/MISSING USERMISSING=EXCLUDE
/MODEL DEPENDENT=PAXINT INDEPENDENT=INDIAGDP NEPALGDP
PREFIX='Modelo'
/EXPERTMODELER TYPE=[ARIMA EXSMOOTH]
/AUTOOUTLIER DETECT=OFF .

Temporal Series Modeler

[Conjunto_de_datos0]

De scri pción del m ode lo

Tipo de modelo
ID del modelo PA XINT Modelo_1 Brown

Model Resume

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 143 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast
Aj uste del modelo

Percentil
Es tadístico de ajus te Media ET Mínimo Máximo 5 10 25 50 75 90 95
R-cuadrado est acionaria ,224 . ,224 ,224 ,224 ,224 ,224 ,224 ,224 ,224 ,224
R-cuadrado ,988 . ,988 ,988 ,988 ,988 ,988 ,988 ,988 ,988 ,988
RMSE 102242,2 . 102242,2 102242,2 102242,2 102242,2 102242,2 102242,2 102242,2 102242,2 102242,2
MA PE 6,223 . 6,223 6,223 6,223 6,223 6,223 6,223 6,223 6,223 6,223
MaxAP E 22,871 . 22,871 22,871 22,871 22,871 22,871 22,871 22,871 22,871 22,871
MA E 70391, 870 . 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870 70391, 870
MaxAE 283723,7 . 283723,7 283723,7 283723,7 283723,7 283723,7 283723,7 283723,7 283723,7 283723,7
BIC normalizado 23,174 . 23,174 23,174 23,174 23,174 23,174 23,174 23,174 23,174 23,174

Estadísticos del modelo

Es tadís ticos
de ajus te del
modelo Ljung-Box Q(18) Número de
Número de R-cuadrado valores
Modelo predictores es tacionaria Es tadís ticos GL Sig. atípicos
PAXINT-Modelo_1 0 ,224 16,498 17 ,489 0

PREDICT THRU YEAR 2035 .


* Time Series Modeler.
TSMODEL
/MODELSUMMARY PRINT=[ MODELFIT]
/MODELSTATISTICS DISPLAY=YES MODELFIT=[ SRSQUARE]
/SERIESPLOT OBSERVED FORECAST
/OUTPUTFILTER DISPLAY=ALLMODELS

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 144 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast
/SAVE PREDICTED(Pronosticado)
/AUXILIARY CILEVEL=95 MAXACFLAGS=24
/MISSING USERMISSING=EXCLUDE
/MODEL DEPENDENT=PAXINT INDEPENDENT=INDIAGDP NEPALGDP
PREFIX='Modelo'
/ARIMA AR=[0] DIFF=1 MA=[0]
TRANSFORM=NONE CONSTANT=YES
/TRANSFERFUNCTION VARIABLES=NEPALGDP NUM=[1] DENOM=[0] DIFF=0 DELAY=0
TRANSFORM=NONE
/TRANSFERFUNCTION VARIABLES=INDIAGDP NUM=[0] DENOM=[0] DIFF=0 DELAY=0
TRANSFORM=NONE
/AUTOOUTLIER DETECT=OFF.

Temporal Series Modeler

[Conjunto_de_datos0]

De scri pción del m ode lo

Tipo de modelo
ID del modelo PA XINT Modelo_1 ARIMA (0,1,0)

Model Resume

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 145 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast
Aj uste del modelo

Percentil
Es tadístico de ajus te Media ET Mínimo Máximo 5 10 25 50 75 90 95
R-cuadrado est acionaria ,670 . ,670 ,670 ,670 ,670 ,670 ,670 ,670 ,670 ,670
R-cuadrado ,992 . ,992 ,992 ,992 ,992 ,992 ,992 ,992 ,992 ,992
RMSE 87471, 008 . 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008 87471, 008
MA PE 5,451 . 5,451 5,451 5,451 5,451 5,451 5,451 5,451 5,451 5,451
MaxAP E 17,799 . 17,799 17,799 17,799 17,799 17,799 17,799 17,799 17,799 17,799
MA E 60691, 199 . 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199 60691, 199
MaxAE 254103,5 . 254103,5 254103,5 254103,5 254103,5 254103,5 254103,5 254103,5 254103,5 254103,5
BIC normalizado 23,182 . 23,182 23,182 23,182 23,182 23,182 23,182 23,182 23,182 23,182

Estadísticos del modelo

Es tadís ticos
de ajus te del
modelo Ljung-Box Q(18) Número de
Número de R-cuadrado valores
Modelo predictores es tacionaria Es tadís ticos GL Sig. atípicos
PAXINT-Modelo_1 2 ,670 16,271 18 ,574 0

16.4 LTD

Temporal Series Modeler

[Conjunto_de_datos0]

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 146 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast
De scri pción del m odelo

Tipo de modelo
ID del modelo VA R00001 Modelo_1 ARIMA (0,0,0)

Model Resume

Aj uste del modelo

Percentil
Es tadístico de ajus te Media ET Mínimo Máximo 5 10 25 50 75 90 95
R-cuadrado est acionaria -3, 5E-015 . -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015
R-cuadrado -3, 5E-015 . -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015 -3, 5E-015
RMSE ,182 . ,182 ,182 ,182 ,182 ,182 ,182 ,182 ,182 ,182
MA PE 31,880 . 31,880 31,880 31,880 31,880 31,880 31,880 31,880 31,880 31,880
MaxAP E 195,511 . 195,511 195,511 195,511 195,511 195,511 195,511 195,511 195,511 195,511
MA E ,144 . ,144 ,144 ,144 ,144 ,144 ,144 ,144 ,144 ,144
MaxAE ,371 . ,371 ,371 ,371 ,371 ,371 ,371 ,371 ,371 ,371
BIC normalizado -3, 305 . -3, 305 -3, 305 -3, 305 -3, 305 -3, 305 -3, 305 -3, 305 -3, 305 -3, 305

Estadísticos del modelo

Es tadís ticos
de ajus te del
modelo Ljung-Box Q(18) Número de
Número de R-cuadrado valores
Modelo predictores es tacionaria Es tadís ticos GL Sig. atípicos
VAR00001-Modelo_1 0 -3,50E-015 143,638 18 ,000 0

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2A National Plan Civil Aviation Development Page 147 of 147
Air Traffic Demand Forecast