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# LINEAR REGRESSION

## Apa itu Regresi Linier ?

• Regresi merupakan alat ukur yg digunakan untuk
• Analisis regresi lebih akurat dlm analisis korelasi
karena tingkat perubahan suatu variabel terhdp
regresi, peramalan atau perkiraan nilai variabel
terikat pada nilai variabel bebas lebih akurat pula.
• Regresi linier adalah regresi yang variabel
bebasnya (variabel X) berpangkat paling tinggi
satu. Utk regresi sederhana, yaitu regresi linier yg
hanya melibatkan dua variabel (variabel X dan Y).
LINEAR REGRESSION?
• Regression is a measuring tool that is used to determine
whether there is a correlation between the variables.
• Regression analysis is more accurate within a correlation
analysis because the rate of change of a variable to accuse
other undetermined variables). So in the regression,
forecasting or estimated value of the dependent variable on
the value of the independent variable is more accurate.
• Linear regression is a regression of the independent variables
(variables X) highest ranking one. For simple regression, is a
linear regression that only involves two variables (variables X
and Y).
Linear Regression Variable
Y = a + bX

Y = dependent variable
X = independent variable
a = intercept / Constanta
b = coefficient regression / slope
 xy 
Y   2 x
 x 
How to find the value of a and b
• Formula 1 a
(Y )(X 2 )  (X )(XY )
(n)(X 2 )  (X ) 2
(n)(XY )  (X )(Y )
b
(n)(X 2 )  (X ) 2

• Formula 2: (Matrix)
 n X  a   Y 
    
2  

 X X  b   XY 
det A1 det A2
a b
det A det A
 n X   Y X   n Y 
A   
2
A   
2
A   
 X X   XY X   X XY 
1 2

## det A  (n)(X 2 )  (X )(X )

det A1  (Y )(X 2 )  (X )(XY )
det A2  (n)(XY )  (Y )(X )
• Formula 3
(n)(XY )  (X )(Y )
b
(n)(X )  (X )
2 2

__ ___
a  Y  b. X
• Formula 4:
(Deviation) (  X ) 2

 x  X  n
2 2

( Y ) 2

 y  Y  n
2 2

X .Y
 xy  XY  n
1   xy
 x 2

__ ___
 0  Y  1. X
Example:
• The following data show: Work experience and sales
• X = work experience (years)
Y = sales (thousands)

X 2 3 2 5 6 1 4 1
Y 5 8 8 7 11 3 10 4

## • Determine the value of a and b (using all Formula)?

• Generate the regression equation! How many sales
turnover of an employee who works 3.5 years
experience
X Y X2 Y2 XY (8)(198)  (24)(56)
2 5 4 25 10 b
3 8 9 64 24
(8)(96)  (24) 2
2 8 4 64 16 1.584  1.344
5 7 25 49 35 b  1,25
6 11 36 121 66 768  576
1 3 1 9 3
4 10 16 100 40
Formula 2.
1 4 1 16 4
24 56 96 448 198  8 24  a   56 
     
___
24 ___
56  24 96  b  198 
X  3 Y  7
8 8  8 24   56 24   8 56 
A    A1    A2   
Formula 1:  24 96  198 96   24 198 
det A  (8)(96)  (24)(24)  192
(56)(96)  (24)(198)
a det A1  (56)(96)  (24)(198)  624
(8)(96)  (24) 2
det A2  (8)(198)  (56)(24)  240
5.376  4.752
a  3,25 a
624
 3,25 b
240
 1,25
768  576 192 192
Formula 3: (8)(198)  (24)(56)
b
(8)(96)  (24) 2
1.548  1.344
b  1,25
768  576
a  7  1,25(3)
a  3,25
• Of the three ways work is derived values ​a = 3.25
and b = 1.25 value
• Linear regression equation is Y = 3.25 +1.25 X
• Expected value of Y, if X = 3.5 is Y = 3.25 +1.25 X

## Y = 3.25 +1.25 (3.5)

Y = 7.625
Coefficient Determination (R2)
((n)(XY )  (X )(Y )) 2
R 
2

( n ( X 2 )  (  X ) 2 ( n (  Y 2 )  ( Y ) 2 )
((8)(198)  (24)(56)) 2
R 
2

## (8(96)  (24) 2 (8(448)  (56) 2 )

(1.584  1.344) 2
R 
2

## (768  576) (3.584  3.136)

(240) 2 57.600
R 
2
  0,6696
(192)(448) 86.016

## Value of determination (R2) of 0.6696, meaning that the contribution or effect

of work experience on the ups and downs of sales turnover amounted to
66.96%.
The rest is 33.04% Caused by other factors not included in the model.
STANDARD DEVIATION
• Angka indeks yg digunakan utk mengukur ketepatan
suatu penduga atau mengukur jumlah variasi titik-
titik observasi di sekitar garis regresi.
regresi, selisih taksir standar sama dengan nol.
• Selisih taksir standar berguna mengetahui batasan
seberapa jauh melesetnya perkiraan dalam meramal
data.
STANDARD DEVIATION
• Index numbers that are used for measuring the
accuracy of an estimate or measure the amount of
variation in observation points around the regression
line.
• If all observation points are right on the regression
line, the difference in the standard estimate is equal
to zero. Indicates the data scatter.
• Difference in standards appraiser useful to know how
far the limits of failing to predict the estimated data.
Formula
(Y  Y ' ) 2
S y / x  S x. y  Se 
n2
or :
( X  Y ' ) 2
S x / y  S y. x  Se 
n2

## Sy / x = Sx / y = Difference appraiser standards

Y = X = the actual value of the variable
Y '= X' = the expected value of the variable
n = number of frequency
Example:
• The relationship between variables X and Y
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
Y 6 4 3 5 4 2
• Generate the regression equation
• Determine the expected value of Y, if X = 8
• Determine the difference in the standard
estimate
X Y X2 Y2 XY n( XY )  ( X )( Y )
b
1 6 1 36 6 n(  X 2 )  (  X ) 2
2 4 4 16 8 6(75)  (21)(24)
3 3 9 9 9 b
6(91)  (21) 2
4 5 16 25 20
25 16 20  54
5 4 b  0,5
6 2 36 4 12 105
21 24 91 106 75 a  Y  b. X
24  21 
a  (0,5) 
6 6
• Regression equation:
Y’ = 5,75 – 0,5 X
• Expected value of Y 'when X = 8
Y’ = 5,75 – 0,5 (8)
Y’ = 1,75
• Standard Deviation:
2
X Y Y' Y-Y' (Y-Y')
(Y  Y ' ) 2
1 6 5.25 0.75 0.5625
Sy/x 
2 4 4.75 -0.8 0.5625 n2
3 3 4.25 -1.3 1.5625
4 5 3.75 1.25 1.5625 5,375
5 4 3.25 0.75 0.5625 Sy/x  1,2
6 2 2.75 -0.8 0.5625 62
5.375