JUMLAH PENDUDUK

TAHUN JUMLAH PENDUDUK(JIWA) A. METODE ARITMATIK

2001 130777
2002 135667 Pn = P0 + ka (Tn - T0)
2003 140306
2004 143987 P2-P1 -59917
Ka =
2005 144458 T2-T1 -14
2006 148589
2007 150014
2008 152197 P5 = 135056.786 19
2009 154464 2566078.92857143
2010 170878
2011 172506 P10 = 135056.786 24
2012 176947 3241362.85714286
2013 183039
2014 186921 P20 = 135056.786 34
2015 190694 4591930.71428571
JUMLAH 2381444
rata2 158762.933333333
proyeksi Tahun
5 2020 C. METODE EKSPONENSIAL
10 2025
20 2035
y  ae bx n

1
ln a     ln y  b x 
N

N  x ln y     x  lny 
b 

N  x2   x  2
 B. METODE GEOMETRIK

Pn = P0 (1 + r)^n

P2 -1
t/5
-0.85418 0.037718
= 4279.786 r =
P0

P5 130777 1.203361
157371.96982786

P10 = 130777 1.448078

189375.32507628

P20 = 130777 2.096931

274230.283213003

Tahun X Y X^2 ln Y X ln Y Pn Tahun Pn

2001 1 130777 1 11.78125 11.78125 130505.96 1988 130506
2002 2 135667 4 11.81796 23.63592 134076.71 1989 134077
2003 3 140306 9 11.85158 35.55474 137745.16 1990 137745
2004 4 143987 16 11.87748 47.50991 141513.99 1991 141514
2005 5 144458 25 11.88074 59.40372 145385.93 1992 145386
2006 6 148589 36 11.90894 71.45364 149363.81 1993 149364
2007 7 150014 49 11.91848 83.42939 153450.53 1994 153451
2008 8 152197 64 11.93293 95.46345 157649.06 1995 157649
2009 9 154464 81 11.94772 107.5294 161962.47 1996 161962
2010 10 170878 100 12.04871 120.4871 166393.9 1997 166394
2011 11 172506 121 12.05819 132.6401 170946.58 1998 170947
2012 12 176947 144 12.08361 145.0033 175623.82 1999 175624
2013 13 183039 169 12.11745 157.5269 180429.03 2000 180429
2014 14 186921 196 12.13844 169.9382 185365.72 2001 185366
2015 15 190694 225 12.15843 182.3764 190437.48 2002 190437

jumlah 120 2381444 1240 179.5219 1443.733 jumlah

b = 0.026993
 P  Pr    P
2
ln a = 11.75218 n n 
r 
2

a = 127030  P  Pr 
2
n
  P  Pr    P
2
n n 
r 
2

 P  Pr 
2
n

y = 170947 =
=

STD
  Pn  P
 
2   Pn  P 2
 n
=
 (P-Pr)^2 (P-Pn)^2 (Pn-P)^2
14037726.22828 73462.641 73462.641
74592506.98957 2529014.8 2529014.8
176244087.6729 6557883.9 6557883.9
20732256169 6115796.4 6115796.4
701644723.2173 861049.42 861049.42
22078690921 600327.65 600327.65
22504200196 11809717 11809717
23163926809 29724978 29724978
23859127296 56227083 56227083
29199290884 20107145 20107145
29758320036 2431799.4 2431799.4
31310240809 1750808.9 1750808.9
33503275521 6811926.1 6811926.1
34939460241 2418887.6 2418887.6
36364201636 65800.473 65800.473

308379509562.11 148085681 148085681

 P  Pr    P  P
2 2
n n
r 
2

 P  Pr 
2
n
  P  Pr    P  P
2 2
n n
r 
2

 P  Pr 
2
n

0.999519794
0.9997598682

 
1
  Pn  P 2  Pn  P 2 /n 
2

STD   
 n 
27754155860.59
 TAHUN JUMLAH PENDUDUK(JIWA) C. METODE EKSPONENSIAL Tahun
2001 130777 2001
2002 135667 2002
2003 140306 1  Pt  2003
2004 143987 r  ln   2004
2005 144458
t  Po  2005
2006 148589 = 0.03772 2006
2007 150014 2007
2008 152197 2008

Pn  Po  e rt
2009 154464 2009
2010 170878 2010
2011 172506 2011
2012 176947 2012
2013 183039 2013
2014 186921 2014
2015 190694 2015
JUMLAH 2381444
rata2 158762.933333333 jumlah
proyeksi Tahun
5 2020 b =
10 2025 ln a =
20 2035 a =

y =

TAHUN JUMLAH PENDUDUK(JIWA)

2001 130777
2002 135667
2003 140306
2004 143987
2005 144458
2006 148589
2007 150014
2008 152197
2009 154464
2010 170878
2011 172506
2012 176947
2013 183039
2014 186921
2015 190694
2016 198024
2017 205636
2018 213540
2019 221748
2020 230271
2021 239122
2022 248314
2023 257859
2024 267770
2025 278063
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
 X Y X^2 ln Y X ln Y Pn Tahun Pn (P-Pr)^2
1 130777 1 11.78125 11.78125 130506 1988 130506 14037726.22828
2 135667 4 11.81796 23.63592 134076.7 1989 134076.7 74592506.98957
3 140306 9 11.85158 35.55474 137745.2 1990 137745.2 176244087.6729
4 143987 16 11.87748 47.50991 141514 1991 141514 20732256169
5 144458 25 11.88074 59.40372 145385.9 1992 145385.9 701644723.2173
6 148589 36 11.90894 71.45364 149363.8 1993 149363.8 22078690921
7 150014 49 11.91848 83.42939 153450.5 1994 153450.5 22504200196
8 152197 64 11.93293 95.46345 157649.1 1995 157649.1 23163926809
9 154464 81 11.94772 107.5294 161962.5 1996 161962.5 23859127296
10 170878 100 12.04871 120.4871 166393.9 1997 166393.9 29199290884
11 172506 121 12.05819 132.6401 170946.6 1998 170946.6 29758320036
12 176947 144 12.08361 145.0033 175623.8 1999 175623.8 31310240809
13 183039 169 12.11745 157.5269 180429 2000 180429 33503275521
14 186921 196 12.13844 169.9382 185365.7 2001 185365.7 34939460241
15 190694 225 12.15843 182.3764 190437.5 2002 190437.5 36364201636

120 2381444 1240 179.5219 1443.733 jumlah 308379509562.11

0.026993
11.75218
r 
2  P n  Pr  
2
 P n  P
2

 P  Pr 
2
127030.3 n

170946.6 = 0.999519794
= 0.9997598682

 
1
  Pn  P 2   Pn  P 2 / n  2

STD   
 n 
= 2.78E+10
 (P-Pn)^2 (Pn-P)^2
73462.64099 73462.64099
2529014.758 2529014.758
6557883.946 6557883.946
6115796.354 6115796.354
861049.4194 861049.4194
600327.6524 600327.6524
11809717.38 11809717.38
29724977.65 29724977.65
56227083.08 56227083.08
20107145.32 20107145.32
2431799.402 2431799.402
1750808.902 1750808.902
6811926.147 6811926.147
2418887.598 2418887.598
65800.47304 65800.47304

148085681 148085681

2
  P n  P
2

Pn  P r 
2