Core Studies
 
 
 
 

CLIMATE CHANGES, DISPLACED PERSONS

and the LAW 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Changes in ‘global’ climate are not a given fact, but they are a very high risk;

‘Local’ changes in climate are occurring now and causing some migration.
 

 
 CLIMATE CHANGES, DISPLACED PERSONS and the LAW

It is inevitable that there will be some confusion regarding the international law and displaced persons, as
areas experience changes in climate and that many definitions need to be agreed as to who may be entitled
to support, be they termed as 'migrants' or 'refugees' and under what circumstances support is to be given
when areas of the globe experience varying categories of change at different times and extremes will also
vary and at different speeds.

Any law regarding displaced persons from climate changes would have to be implemented outside of all of
the existing laws, as it would not be possible to change the existing laws due to the length of time required
to reach global agreement and the existing laws, (1951 United Nations convention relating to the status of
refugees and the 1967 United Nations Protocol relating to the status of refugees) took many years to
configure and only covers "fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a
particular social group or political opinion etc" and thus makes no provision for environmental changes.
However, there is often an assumption that during times of environmental disaster there are many refugees
from a disaster, but refugees are those that have fled over borders and are not termed 'refugee' until they
have crossed a border on their own decision.

It is now reasonably clear that the term 'refugee' cannot apply to a displaced person from climate changes,
as a refugee is a displaced person that may fear persecution and it is not likely that they would apply to a
person displaced due to climate changes. It is possible that during a period of conflict some would claim
refugee status, but the definition of refugee in this case would have to qualify through a strict adjudication
process and it is not likely that there would be agreement on this. There are no set criteria for adjudicating
who is or who is not a displaced person from climate change and as the existing international law under the
United Nations does not cover climate change migrants, the necessary protection that will be required to
cover, at least the basics.

Much of the burden for providing finance, leadership and direct support will rest on the governments of the
most developed nations and it will be up to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to
ensure that the decision makers have prime information of local environmental changes that may trigger the
need to ensure that those that will be displaced are given the fullest support available. There are many
factors to be taken into consideration, keeping in mind the rights of sovereign nations, the potential for
conflict in various forms, residency status of the displaced persons outside of their own borders, dwindling
natural resources such as potable water and many other concerns, either macro or micro.

Not all of the globe is changing at the same time or to the same degree and there will be parts of the world
that will benefit from a changing climate, but some changes have been verified whilst others are open to
conjecture and there are many opinions put forward. However, as the following pages show, in worst case
scenarios, there are many facets to address and not all of these will be resolved. There are issues raised
about sovereignty of the small island states that will be flooded and whether they will be able retain their
absolute sovereignty in a new country or on a parcel of land set aside for this purpose.

It is very unlikely that the United Nations will be united in its quest to harness the goodwill and financial
support required from members in order to address the overall need to find solutions, although it is accepted
that these problems are so diverse, it is very unlikely that the United Nations will manage to discuss many of
the problems that need very detailed analysis.
There are a large number of civil conflicts throughout the world, with food conflicts becoming ever more
prominent and climate changes are likely to see these increase in developing countries and to add to these, it
is likely that conflict over employment opportunities may be intertwined with the food conflicts. It has been
noted that the price of basic foods have increased in the local and international markets and with changes in
local climates more likely, food shortages will probably increase, especially in areas where there are annual
population increases above normal and where both internal and international migrants add to rapidly
expanding populations and where urban areas bear the greatest burdens and have to provide public services
already under stress. 

However, the work load to resolve some of these problems cannot be left to the United Nations alone, as
there are other organisations that must be involved, in order to ensure that cultural identities can be
preserved and this is an important factor and this is also where the religious leaders can assist the IPCC in
determining the cultural identities that must be preserved; important amongst the few remaining indigenous
groups that must also have a say. How far will the religious definitions factor into the discussions regarding
displaced persons from climate change, will the Islamic nations only accept other followers of Islam?

Will the strongly Catholic nations accept followers of Islam or followers of Judaism? All of these factors must
be on the table during discussions and this is why organisations such as the Arab League of Nations, the
Association of Caribbean States, the Union of South American States must be included. Growing political and
economic states such as the European Union will play a major role in discussions. There may also be a major
role for the various African Unions in any discussions; as not only will the African continent provide many of
the displaced persons from climate changes; with its vast land resources, Africa may also provide many of
the solutions.

One of the problems that may affect the possible discussions regarding creating laws to protect those made
displaced persons from climate changes is the present state of world economics. With many countries highly
stressed economically at this time and little likelihood that these economies will be in any position to provide
large amounts of aid for many years, few governments will want to commit money or resources to this
cause.

As the following pages show, there are many variables to be considered, even when considering the primary
responses to the problem of displaced persons due to climate changes.

 
 (N.B. Any references to a 'global' climate change are avoided where possible in this document as the most likely
scenario is 'local' climate changes.)

DISPLACED PERSONS and their DEFINITIONS

CS Refugee:
The 1951 United Nations Protocol relating to the status of refugees and the 1967 United Nations Refugee
Protocol took many years to configure and implement and they only cover fear of persecution as reasons
to apply for refugee status and covers ("Fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality,
membership of a particular social group or political opinion etc”) and thus, makes no provision for
environmental changes that may affect someone’s personal status.
From this, it is now reasonably clear that the term 'refugee' cannot apply to a displaced person from
climate changes, as a 'refugee' cannot be in fear of persecution from these unless conflict in some form
or other is present:
Therefore, to be eligible for classification as a refugee due to conflict in a climate change situation would
involve the following:
Climate Change Refugee from Conflict:
Political conflict.
Religious conflict.
Cultural conflict? (Is there such a classification such as 'cultural' conflict?)
CS Migrant:
There are many definitions of migrant and of these definitions many could be applied in terms of climate
changes and some of these are put forward for debate:
Economic Migrant:
Seasonal, temporary or permanent.
Seasonal:
Many people migrate each year on a seasonal basis to take advantage of employment opportunities;
mostly in agriculture and these return 'home' after a given period of time, having completed the seasonal
work or contract.
Temporary:
Many people migrate to take advantage of employment opportunities and are away for one or two years
and return 'home' after having completed a contract or when sufficient capital is gained.
Permanent:
Those that migrate on a permanent basis have to be divided into two categories.
Internal migrant
External migrant
Internal migrant:
As stated these migrate internally or within the borders of a nation to seek employment opportunity or
for other purposes and within the laws regarding climate changes these would need special
consideration.
Most internal migrants usually migrate because of economic opportunity, either because ‘at home' the
economic situation has declined or because there are too many family members to support from a small
income. The fact that most come from the rural areas is of concern because most of those that leave are
the youth, leaving an aging rural population to maintain and increase food supplies to support expanding
population. There is also evidence to show that in the industrial areas, migration occurs as industry
grows or declines or where natural mineral resources increase or decrease. There is worrying evidence to
show that the urban and sub-urban areas are expanding at a rate whereby the public services provided
are under stress and that land, once used for agriculture is now being taken for residential purposes and
that agricultural production is declining.
At this time there is insufficient evidence to show that number of people that are migrating voluntarily'
because of local climate changes, although there is evidence that, in some areas, climates have changed
sufficiently to a degree that discourages people to stay in their areas. This again, is in rural areas where
agricultural production is having to adapt to local changes; that might be due to excessive and prolonged
droughts, excessive out of (usual) season flooding or where either of the these natural events has caused soil
erosion sufficient to make agricultural production unviable. It has been found that most of the migrants are
unskilled, or do not have sufficient skills in order to earn an income in their newly chosen settlement area.
In general, those that claim to be affected by climate changes will have to undergo strict testing in order to
satisfy the requirement to qualify for assistance from climate change support agencies and it is not sufficient
to claim a decreased percentage of yield in order to qualify; there will have to be significant 'sustained'
losses without the hope of an improvement in the climate in order to regain the original yield percentages.
Added to this, who is to claim that a farmer is insufficiently knowledgeable to maintain yields.
Therefore it is extremely unlikely that individual cases would be acceptable and that only groups of internal
migrants would be able to make a claim for assistance due to climate changes.

External migrant: (Crosses international border/s)

As stated these migrate outside the borders of a 'home' nation to seek employment opportunity or for
other (usually familial) purposes and would need to meet certain criteria to qualify in law regarding
climate changes and would require an adjudication process. In a situation such as climate change an
external migrant would have to meet stringent criteria before being accepted as a displaced person from
climate changes and thus, would probably have been supported in this migration by a government or by
an internationally accepted organisation; thus, giving some right to claiming assistance.
The qualifications required in order to receive assistance in a claim as a displaced person from climate
changes are what the various authorities have to agree and implement and this in itself raises many
issues; not least, the religious and cultural criteria and this is where many difficulties lie.

Host communities:
The issue of sovereignty has been raised and this is something that must be addressed if a large number
of nations are to come together and agree to relocate displaced persons from climate changes and this
supposes that at some time, some small nations (mostly island states) will have to relocate as a nation
and yet, be allowed to retain their laws, culture and customs, as a state within a state and it is probable
that areas of land to be made available for these displaced nations are agreed and this must be
undertaken soonest.
Integrating climate change migrants into existing communities will prove to be exceptionally hard to do,
as there is immediate competition for many things, including public services (potable water, health,
education, etc), housing, land, employment and basic resources and many may require to attend
vocational and language training in order to be able to take part in the day-to-day activities in their new
host communities.
Many communities are very ‘tribal’ in nature, not tolerating newcomers in general and where it has been
seen that local governments and development/relief organisations have targeted resources at
newcomers, jealousies quickly arise and these in turn can lead to conflict; precisely the opposite of that
required in order to resettle migrants. it therefore may be necessary to resettle climate change migrants
in ‘new towns’, although this brings with it its own problems; allowing ‘closed societies’ and this is
against the general idea in relocating displaced persons. With this also comes the variety of dialects,
religions and sub-religions that abound and adding difficulties for those that will have to manage the
permanent or temporary relocation of displaced persons and this is where there must be a role for the
various groups that represent collectives of individual nations; such as the Arab League, the various
African groups, Caribbean groups, Asian groups, European groups and many others. All will represent
various cultures and religions and although all will be willing to take part (officially) all will wish to be
selective of those that they will help to relocate.
Who will manage those that have been relocated into other nations? Will the United Nations demand
rights of access into a sovereign country or will the host nation take total responsibility for its new
citizens?
As can be seen, there are now many variables in the equation and it is unlikely that all can be
accommodated and thus, compromises will have to be made in order to achieve any kind of agreements
in order to address the needs of those that have become displaced by the inability to maintain a lifestyle
in their ‘home’ areas because of the altered climate. 
 
 

Some may plausibly argue that with sufficient forewarning and proactive international support, that
individual governments should take full responsibility for their response to climate changes within
boundaries and although this has great merit, it leaves out those island nations that may be completely
lost due to sea level rises.
Many may argue against the need for displaced persons from climate changes needing to cross
international borders and this also has some merit, especially where these become economic migrants
from climate changes that have decided to migrate on their volition and without coercion. If for example,
the international boundaries of the African continent are unable to stop migrants crossing at will, people
will naturally migrate to areas where they believe that they may be able to sustain a particular lifestyle
and although the African continent is still quietly tribal, few will be deterred from migrating by this.
Changes in global climate are not a given fact, but they are a high risk.
One of the conundrums for international experts on climate change is that none are sure about what will
happen and where it will happen; although some areas of the globe are at higher risk than others. Some
will argue that the human race alone is responsible for these climate changes and although the human
race has definitely added to these risks, historical climate data does not support that the human race
alone is responsible. It is reasonably certain that not all is doom and gloom as some areas of the world
will benefit from a global warming and in these areas a higher percentage of food production may be
beneficial.
Many cultures in general are rather fatalistic and will say that they will deal with the problems of life ‘if’
and ‘when’ they occur and see no point in taking proactive action for something that ‘might’ only happen
in another generation or century and although the experts are reasonably sure in themselves, they have
an extremely hard time in convincing the doubters. Many of the people in these cultures will say that
they have a hard time surviving at this time and have little interest and no energy to address ‘possible’
environmental problems of the future and this is where the existing education systems may be able to
help change attitudes, or at the least, make the future generations aware of potential problems and that
by changing practices now, these changes may not occur or will occur to a lesser degree or later than is
presently predicted.
As stated by many, there are some countries at greater risk from climate changes than others and many
cite Bangladesh as being one of these. Here is a nation where the majority of the terrain is only a few
metres above sea level and which, if predictions are correct, will lose a considerable amount of land to
the sea. In an overcrowded nation, this is a problem and internal migration will greatly exacerbate the
population density in the inland areas and may well have an effect on the nation’s ability to provide
sufficient basic food for its people and this is a worrying factor. Not only will land be lost to the sea but
inland waterways may be polluted by salt, further reducing the ability of producing the main basic crop of
rice and although agricultural scientists are attempting to produce a salt tolerant rice, this may not fully
answer the needs. Some have stated that the international community should proactively assist
Bangladesh to construct sea defences and then leave the successive governments of Bangladesh to deal
with the remaining problems themselves.
One important factor about rice is that although ‘upland’ varieties of rice are being further developed, the
vast majority of rice is produced on the flat delta areas and many of these are at, or a little above sea
level. In nations where rice is not only a food crop, but a very important cultural crop, the development
of rice varieties is important. Expecting whole communities to change their basic food preferences may
not be physically possible and probably definitely not culturally possible as the cultural aspect is a very
important factor that many overlook. Only the prospect of starvation may encourage people to adopt
other basic foods.
Likewise there are countries in south-east Asia that are, to some degree, reliant on China for economical
development and with some changes in climate already apparent, the production of important food crops
is at risk. Again, rice is not heat tolerant and for every one degree increase in mean night temperature,
some have stated that production falls by ten percent (10%) or more and in nations that already have to
import rice to maintain the nation’s health, producing less on home soil effects trade balances. Likewise
rapid temperature rises of the seas surrounding many of the island states has already had an effect on
natural fish stocks and in areas where the coral reefs are important fish breeding grounds, higher sea
temperatures have caused sterility of these reefs, especially during the times of El Nino.
Few would believe that that greater number of natural disasters; flooding and earthquakes in Pakistan,
flooding and earthquakes in China, earthquakes in Haiti, tsunamis, etc and many other environmental
calamities are caused by climate changes and yet, there may be some evidence to show that local
climate changes and human intervention in the environment have some relationship to these. There is
insufficient scientific data to directly link the occurrences with climate changes, but many are now
starting to question the cause of these events.

Many forget that the Earth itself is a living organism and it changes over the millenniums; getting colder,
getting hotter, more explosive as continental plates grind against each other and many other ‘natural’
occurrences and it is impossible for scientists to include these in climate predictions as the events
themselves are not predictable. Therefore climate scientists have to work on a ‘best guess’ scenario and
this is what the international organisations have to accept and possibly also why so many people appear
to be sceptical about ‘global’ climate change, although they should accept that in some areas of the
globe climates have changes and will continue to do so.

There is no doubt that the international organisations, the various bodies that represent regional groups
of nations, the IMF and others should discuss and agree some basic rules so that the early cases can be
addressed. Some nations are very concerned about the security issues relative to climate changes and
the potential for conflict is high, unless proactive means are taken to answer ‘what if’ scenarios.

Robert J Walker
Core Studies
(September 2010)
corestudies@yahoo.com
 Core Studies

Climate Change
Displaced persons:
Migrants:
Refugees:

Issues to be resolved:
CS Climate changes will cause conflict:-
What form will these conflicts take?
What is it that determines when a climate change migrant has to leave a home area?
What level of conflict will cause people to make the decision to migrate?
What if a person is forced by government to leave an area due to changes in climate?
What legal rights will the enforced displaced persons have?
CS Some climate change migrants migrate because of conflict:-
What are the causes of these conflicts?
Will there be control measures put in place to reduce outbreaks of conflict?
CS Is a 'displaced person' from climate change a refugee or migrant?
CS Is a 'refugee' from climate change:-
Only from conflict within a climate change situation?
From natural disaster from climate changes?
A person or group of people 'officially' forced to leave an area
CS What will happen if a sovereign island state becomes overrun from a rise in sea level?
Will it be allocated land for another sovereign state?
Will it be able to retain its sovereignty?
Will it have to be absorbed into another sovereign state?
CS What is it that 'triggers' the final decision to migrate in a changed climate situation?
Is it economics based?
Is it conflict based?
Is it resources based?
CS What areas will most of the migrants / refugees come from?
Rural areas? (Most likely to be the largest source of migrants)
Coastal areas?
Upland areas? (Most likely to be a large source of migrants)
Arid areas?
CS Where will the majority of the migrants / refugees resettle?
Urban and sub-urban areas? (Most likely)
Industrial areas?
Other rural areas?
Other coastal areas?

Climate Change, Displaced Persons and the Law

 Core Studies

Climate Change
Displaced persons:
Migrants:
Refugees:
POINTS
Legal Definitions Required:
(Relative to Climate Changes )
CS What is the legal definition of a displaced person from climate changes?
Is it a refugee? (A refugee is a displaced person that may fear persecution)
Is it a migrant?
Does an 'internal' migrant qualify?
How do you identify an internal migrant from climate change?
What is the legal status of an 'internal migrant' from climate changes?
CS What therefore is the legal definition of a refugee?
Is there such a person as a 'climate change refugee'? (from conflict or natural disaster?)
CS What is the legal definition of an 'internal' migrant?
CS What is the legal definition of an 'external' migrant?
CS Where enforced displacement is necessary:
What will be the 'legal' status of internally displaced persons?
What will be the 'legal' status of externally displaced persons?
Who will decide the 'legal' status of displaced persons?
CS Will the United Nations have dominance in determining the legal status of displaced persons?
Has the United Nations the capability to rule on the legal status of displaced persons?
Has the United Nations the legal right to rule on the legal status of displaced persons?
CS Will the United Nations protect indigenous groups forced to relocate?
CS What will be the 'residency' status of displaced persons from climate changes?
Temporary residency?
Full residency?
CS Failing to address the needs of displaced persons from climate change, may this cause
greater instability and more security problems?
Host communities antagonism against migrants?
Competition for resources? (food, potable water etc)
Competition for employment? (skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled)
Competition for services provided by government? (health, education etc)
Religious or political conflict?
Culture conflict?
Stress on peace keeping forces?

Climate Change, Displaced Persons and the Law

 Core Studies

Climate Change
Displaced persons:
Migrants:
Refugees:

CS What triggers cause someone to become a migrant or refugee from climate change?
Crop failures:
Constant drought
Constant flooding
Delta soil salination from rising sea levels
Soil born crop pests and diseases
Soil degradation (leaching of prime mineral elements)
Conflicts:
Potable and irrigation water disputes
Land disputes
Greedy landlords
Large numbers of migrants
Natural disasters:
Forest fires
Landslides
Land subsidence
Earthquake
Desertification
Tsunami
Vegetative food production:
Lack of sustainability
High cost of inputs
Competition from bio-fuel crops
Plants intolerant of rising air and soil temperatures
Salination of prime delta soil from sea level rise
Other food production:
Lack of cereals for animal production
Lack of or delayed development of crop species
Reduced level of grazing
Water shortages
Depleted marine fish stocks
Depleted groundwater levels for aquaculture
General:
Basic food shortages
High cost of basic foods
Potable water shortages
High cost of potable water
Lack of sustainable employment opportunity

Climate Change, Displaced Persons and the Law

 Core Studies

Climate Change
Displaced persons:

Corruption within the governments and international organisations responding to

the need of displaced persons due to local climate changes:
CS Within the need to respond to non-emergency situations in climate changes, there is
also a need to ensure that corrupt practices are reduced to a minimum and that all
participating national governments are aware of these needs and have the legal
framework to address these needs.
For 'internal' migrants?
For 'external' migrants?
For 'indigenous groups'?

CS There may also be a need to determine whether or not a non-emergency situation is

due to climate changes or other causes.

CS There are many that migrate across borders for seasonal work and there are some
that migrate internally following traditional agricultural seasons. Will these be affected
by international agreements on displaced persons from climate changes?

CS

Definitions (How many of these apply to displaced persons from climate changes? )
Economic migrant:
Seasonal migrant (Does not apply)
Industrial migrant (Does not apply)
Temporary migrant (Does not apply)
Permanent migrant (Does not apply)
Conflict migrant:
From 'international' conflict (Cross border conflict migrant; thus refugee)
From 'internal' conflict
From 'climate change' conflict (*)
((*) define climate change conflict)
Religious conflict:
From 'internal' religious conflict (internal conflict migrant; no refugee status)
From 'external' religious conflict (Cross border conflict migrant; thus refugee)
Political conflict:
Opposing political views on the reaction to climate changes
Cultural conflict:
Culturally unable to accept regulations made to combat climate changes

Climate Change, Displaced Persons and the Law

 Core Studies

Climate Change
Displaced persons:
Migrants:
Refugees:

Legal Definitions Required OPTIONS

For Displaced Persons Relative to Climate Changes:

CS There is a need to determine strict parameters on who would qualify for legal rights
to migrate directly due to local climate changes.
CS Therefore a 'base map' of the local environments is required.
CS The IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) would have to undertake this
together with other international organisations such as the FAO.
CS Therefore, baseline criteria must be established and agreed.
The displaced persons:
1 The trigger point at which a migrant decides to leave a home area.
2 Is this decision based on adverse effects of climate change that precludes staying?
3 Is this a decision enforced by government or determined by personal decision?
4 Are the climate changes 'new' or 'established'?
5 Is 'conflict' involved in the decision to relocate?
6 What constitutes climate change 'conflict'?
7 Is 'natural disaster' involved in the decision to relocate?
8 Is 'food production' at risk in the area where migrants are leaving from?
9 Are 'natural water reserves' at risk in the area where migrants are leaving from?
10 Are 'indigenous groups' at risk from incoming migrants?
11 Are 'indigenous groups' at risk from being forced to relocate?

Possible variables in the adjudication process:

A Religion
B Tribe
C Race
D Culture
E Lifestyle (Coastal, Upland, Delta, Island, etc )
F Sovereignty status
G Environment
(determining the amount of change needed to make migration necessary)
H Training requirement
I Clarification of the term 'conflict'
J Determination of the term 'climate change conflict'
(for determining migrant or refugee status)
K

Climate Change, Displaced Persons and the Law

 Core Studies

Climate Change
Displaced persons: Criteria for Debate
Migrants:
Refugees:

Displaced Persons:
CS Baseline criteria for acceptance as displaced persons legally entitled to support:
Due to climate changes :
1 Drought lasting more than (3) years.
2 Regular out of season flooding.
3 Seasonal temperatures change (+/-) by more than 2 degrees Celsius since 1980.
4 Severe soil erosion. (by wind and rain)
5 Severe land slides.
6 Rapid desertification.
7 Severe 'natural' deforestation.
8 Severely lowered water table.
9 Potable water resources polluted by seawater.
10 Irrigation water resources polluted by seawater.
11 Severe salination of food producing delta areas. (from rising sea levels )
12 Marine fish stocks depleted to an unsustainable state. (warmer seawater [+2Co])
(Or fish stocks depleted by 90% or more)
13 Lakes and rivers drying up. (Less than 10% remaining)
14 Indigenous groups' environments being destroyed.
15 Islands inundated with seawater.
16 Altered ecosystems. (To be defined)
17 River systems heavily polluted by siltation.
18 Percentage of environmental change to acquire migrant status. (50% plus)
19 Seawater temperature rise at five metres below surface (+2oC)
20
21
22
23

Climate Change, Displaced Persons and the Law