TREND ANALYSIS

:
It refers to the concept of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern,
or trend, in the information. In some fields of study the term trend is often used topredict
future events.I t i s t h e p r o c e s s o f a n a l y z i n g c o m p a n y ’ s f i n a n c i a l r a t i o s
o v e r t i m e . A n a s p e c t o f technical analysis that tries to predict the future
movement of a stock based on pastdata. Trend analysis is based on the idea that
what has happened in the past
givest r a d e r s a n i d e a o f w h a t w
i l l h a p p e n i n t h e f u t u r e . There
are three main types of trends:
short-, intermediate- and long-term
.Trend analysis tries to predict a trend like a bull market run and ride that
trend untild a t a s u g g e s t s a t r e n d r e v e r s a l . T r e n d a n a l y s i s i s h e l p f u l
b e c a u s e m o v i n g w i t h trends, and not against them, will lead to profit for an
investors.The trend analysis module allows you to plot aggregated response over time.
This isespecially valuable, if you are conducting a long running survey and
would like tomeasure differences in perception and responses over time
The following data points can be measured on Y-axis:
1 . M E A N a n d M E A N P E R C E N T I L E 2.STANDA
RD DEVIATION and VARIANCE
The
“TIME FACTOR”
on
X axis
can have the following
granularity:1 . D a i l y 2 . W e e k l y 3 . M o n t h l y 4.Quarterly (Jan-
Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sept, Oct-Dec)5 . Y e a r l y Trend Analysis can be extremely
valuable as an early warning indicator
of potentialp r o b l e m s a n d i s s u e s w i t h p r o d u c t l i n e a n d s e r v i c e l e v e l
c h a n g e s t h a t i m p a c t customers. If you see a dip in t he "mean" for a
C o n t i n u o u s V a r i a b l e s a t i s f a c t i o n question after a particular "marketing event" you can
immediately start investigatingthe dip and explore causes of the decrease in satisfaction levels.
It can also be usedto gauge response rates over time.
OBJECTIVES OF MEASURING TREND
There are four main objectives of measuring Trend in a time series data:
1.
To study past growth or decline of the series. On ignoring the short
t e r m fluctuations, trend describes the basic growth or decline tendency of the data.
2.
Assuming that the same behavior would continue in future also, the
t r e n d curve can be extended for forecasting future.
3.
In order to analyze the influence of other factors the trend
m a y f i r s t b e measured and then eliminated from the observed values.
4.
Trend values of two or more time series can be used for their comparison.
METHODS OF MEASURING TREND:
There are four methods of measuring trend ant they are:
•
Free Hand method or Graphical method.
•
Semi-Average Method.
•
Method of Moving Averages.
•
Method of Least squares.
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD.
COMPANY HISTORY:
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (MSIL) was established in Feb.1981 through an
act
of parliament as a government company with Suzuki Motor Corporation of
J a p a n holding 26% stake. The joint venture agreement was signed between government
of India and Suzuki Motor Company in October1982. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., formallyM a r u t i
udyog ltd., a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corporation of Japan, is
I n d i a ’ s largest passenger car company accounting for over 50% of the domestic car
market.More than half the no. of cars sold in India wears a Maruti Suzuki batch. It offers
11different ranges of cars. Since inception, Maruti produced and sold over 7.5
millionvehicles in India and exported over 5 lakh units to Europe and other countries.
PRODUCTS:
The company has the portfolio of 11 brands including
•
MARUTI 800
•
MARUTI OMNI
•
ZEN
•
ALTO
•
WAGON-R
•
GYPSY
•
ESTEEM
•
BALENO
•
VERSA
•
SX4
•
SWIFT
•
GRAND VITARA
•
DEZIRE
EQUITY STRUCTURE OF MARUTI:
54.21% of SUZUKI MARUTI CORPORATION45.79% of OTHERS
(Financial institutions mutual funds, banks, public etc.)
EQUITYSTRUCTURE
54.21%45.79%SUZUKIMOTOCORPORATIOOTHERS
COMPANY AT A GLANCE:
•
Cars produced and sold : 7,000,000
•
Domestic cars sales for 2007-08 : 711818
•
Car exports for 2007-08 : 53024
•
Recorded profit after tax in 2007-08 : 17308
•
Total income in 2007-08 : 188238
•
No. of Maruti Suzuki sales outlets in 393 towns and cities : 600
•
No. of workshops that provide customers with
maintenancesupport in 1220 cities : 2628
•
Employee strength till March 2008 : 709

One million promise

Maruti has laid down a clear road map to achieve an annual sale of 1
million cars inthe domestic market and 2 lakh exports by 2010-11. In
addition, the managementteam at Maruti Suzuki has identified specific
initiatives to serve customers better andensure their leadership in the
future.
COMPANY’S STRENGTH:
One of the Maruti’s great strength is that they have internal resources to
finance bothR & D expansion as well as capital and investments.
The higher interest rates andthe risk of making large borrowings till
finance capital cost will not affect them.
Maruti Suzuki is recently being rated as the
4
th
mostreputed automobile company in the world.
Thishas happenedbecause of the contribution of all the stake holders of
Maruti.
BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS OF MSIL:SALES GROWTH:
TREND ANALYSIS OF MARUTI SUZUKI
F a c t o r s Y e a r
2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 S a l e s 2
0 8 9 . 4 2 5 6 2 . 5 2 8 6 7 . 1 3 4
2 5 . 3 4 7 4 7 . 3 S a l e s
G r o w t h 0 . 2 2 6 0
. 1 1 9 0 . 1 9 5 0 . 3 8
6 C O G S 1 5 3 9 . 7
1 9 3 9 . 3 2 1 4 7 .
4 2 4 2 7 . 1 3 5 0 0
. 2 COGS as a %
of S a l e s 0 . 7
3 7 0 . 7 5 7 0
. 7 4 9 0 . 7 0
9 0 . 7 3 7 S G
& A 2 4 2 . 6 2
3 4 . 7 2 8 9 .
6 3 7 1 . 8 5 2
1 . 3 S G & A % o f
S a l e s 0 . 1 1 6 1 0 . 0 9 1
6 0 . 1 0 1 0 . 1 0 8 5 0 . 1 0
9 8 R&D$- $ - $ -$-$-
R & D
%
o f
S a l
e s 0
0 0 0
0 O p e r a t i n g
I n c o m e 3 0 7 . 1 3 8 8
. 5 4 3 0 . 1 6 2 6 . 4 7 2
5 . 8 O p e r a t i n g
M a r g i n 0 . 1 4 7 0 .
1 5 2 0 . 1 5 0 . 1 8 3 0
. 1 5 3 E m p l o y e
e s 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 3
7 0 9 0 Revenue
per E m p l o y e e 6 2
6 . 7 7 4 2 . 1 # D I
V / 0 ! # D I V / 0 !
6 7 0 N e t P P E
4 4 6 . 8 4 4 7 . 5
4 5 9 . 8 6 7 9 . 4
1 0 2 5 . 4 A s s e
t U t i l i z a t i
o n 0 . 2 1 0 . 1 7
0 . 1 6 0 . 2 0 . 2
2 I n v e n t o r y
1 0 1 . 2 1 5 2 . 6
1 9 7 . 7 1 6 1 . 3
2 5 8 . 6 C O G S / I
n v e n t o r y 1 5 . 2 1
1 2 . 7 1 1 0 . 8 6 1 5 .
0 5 1 3 . 5 4
Page 12 of 31
3 6 5 3 6 5
3 6 5 3 6 5
3 6 5 D
I I
2 4
2 9
3 4
2 4
2 7 A c c o
u n t s R e c e i v a b l e 1
6 4 . 6 1 4 4 . 3 1 5 4 . 1 1 8
2 . 1 1 7 3 . 2 S a l e s
/ A R 1 2 . 6 9 1 7
. 7 6 1 8 . 6 1 1 8
. 8 1 2 7 . 4 1 3
6 5 3 6 5 3
6 5 3 6 5 3
6 5 D
S O
2 9
2 1
2 0
1 9
1 3 From the above trend it
has been found that the
1.
The sales of the company have increased from 19.5% in 2007 to
38.6% in2008.
2.
Cost of goods sold also increased from 70.9% in 2007 to 73.7% in
2008.3.Operating margin trended negatively from 18.3% to 15.3%.
4.
Number of employees and revenue from the employees also
increased from2007 to 2008.5 . A l s o t h e r e i s i n c r e me n t i n a s s e t
u t i l i z a t i o n , n e t P P E , i n ve n t o r y a n d Da ys i n inventory.