t=0 t=1
Buy Bond A -100 +105
Sell Bond B +101 -105
• We could have asked “What price of Bond B does not permit arbitrage?”
t=0 t=1
Buy Bond A -100 +105
Sell Bond B +X -105
Profit Profit
S(T) S(T)
S(T) S(T)
• A long put option will give you 0 if you don’t exercise or X-S if you do
Ø You exercise only when X-S > 0
• If the long exercises, they will pay $9.50 for a share that costs $10 but they can
only sell for $9.00
Ø If they want to keep the share, that’s a good deal (bought at $9.50, would
have paid $10)
Ø If they don’t want to keep the share, that’s a bad deal (bought at $9.50, can
only sell at $9.00)
• If the short has to deliver because the long exercises:
Ø the short position has to buy to deliver, the short receives $9.00 - $10.00
(sold for $9, had to buy for $10)
Ø the short position already has the share, the opportunity cost is $9.00 - $9.50
(sold for $9, could have sold for $9.50)
• Conclusion: Yuck transaction costs; we will work with the case that neither the
long or short wants the share
• All of the strategies on display are risky, with some of them possibly leading to a
loss larger than your initial investment.
• At the time of writing, I did not have a position in any option contract or any of
the stocks featuring in these slides.
• He tells you about his exciting new running plans, which he will start next year
when he will have plenty of time on his hands
• Hearing that, what do you do?
A. You take a selfie with this guy
B. You nod politely and finish your tour
C. You spend the rest of your run trying to get rid of the echo of his voice in
your ear
D. …
Neal Galpin FNCE30007, 2018 9
Microsoft CEO
• WSJ MoneyBeat blog (2013-08-12):
15
• Note: this profit diagram does not account for time value of money!
• Suppose you share this view, how can you profit using options?
Profit
2
0
–0.5 S(T)
–2 Butterfly call spread
–5.5
20
• Now consider a portfolio of a long call and short put, both with strike K = F =
S(1+R)
Value Maturity (T), if Maturity (T), if
Today S(T) < F S(T) > F
Long call c
Short put -p
Total c–p
c – p = S – BK
↔ -S + BK + c - p = 0 (16.2)
-S + BK + c - p = 0
↔ c + BK = p + S
Payoff Payoff
S(T) S(T)
• A similar thing happened with Alibaba & Yahoo in 2014 (see link)
• March 16, 2000: Options began trading on Palm stock. At the time
Ø S = $55, K = $55, T = 1 month, B = $0.995,
Ø c = $5 and p = $9.
• PCP gives (p = c + BK – S)
Ø Synthetic put price = Call price + Present value of strike - Stock price
Ø $4.725 = $5 + 0.995 ´ $55 – $55
• How can you make an arbitrage profit from Palm’s option prices?
c + BK = p + S
• Assuming that a fixed-dollar dividend div is paid on a known future date t1 and
B1 is today’s price of a zero maturing on the ex-dividend date, put–call parity for
European options (with a known dollar dividend) can be written as
cA ≥ max(S-K,0)
Lower Bound
Call prices
in here
45°
0
K S, stock price
• The value of a European call (and hence an American call) is at least equal to the
present value of exercising at maturity
c ≥ max(S-e-rTK,0)
• Two ways to look at this
1. Put-call parity:
2. Use the OPSY data (changing the price of the $20 call) and an arbitrage table
Portfolio Today (Time 0) Expiration date (Time T)
Cash flow Cash flow
S(T) £ $20 S(T) > $20
Buy $20 strike call –$2 0 S(T) – $20
Short sell stock $22.5 –S(T) –S(T)
Buy bonds to lend –0.9753 ´ $20 $20 $20
present value of strike
(K = $20, B = $0.9753)
Cash flows $0.99 $20 – S(T) 0
15
• Strike $32:
Ø Exercise immediately:
Ø Sell the option:
• Suppose we have two call options on OPSY, with strikes K1=$20 and
K2=$22.50, respectively. Which option is more likely to be exercised early for
a given dividend payment?
?
• Use these rules-of-thumb
Ø Exercise your calls the first time that cA = S - K – PV(DIV)
Ø Exercise your puts the first time that pA = K - S – PV(DIV)
• Options in (re)insurance
Ø http://www.businessinsider.com.au/warren-buffett-q1-equity-index-puts-2013-5
Ø http://www.gurufocus.com/news/50998/a-closer-look-at-berkshire-hathaways-equity-
put-options
• Options Report:
Ø http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/tag/options-report/
Ø http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/tag/options-market/
• Alibaba vs Yahoo:
Ø http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/09/19/1977892/a-friendly-reminder-that-yahoos-core-
business-is-worth-11-6-billion/