The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the

views or policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), the Asian Development
Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any
consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

Session 6: Enhancing Regional Power Trade in Central Asia:

Role of Regional Integration and Cooperation

Renewable Energy in Central Asia:

Current Role and Possibilities for Regional Cooperation

Dr. Elena SHADRINA

ADB & CAREC Institute Workshop:

Achieving Energy Security in Central Asia: Role of Renewable Energy

Baku, Azerbaijan, 12 March 2018

Outline

CA Economies’ Energy Profiles

Role of RE in Electricity Generation in Central Asia

International Cooperation for Strengthening Energy Security in CA

2
CA Economies’ Energy Profiles

3
 CA Economies’ Energy Profiles

• Hydrocarbon resources are significant in Kazakhstan (oil; main importer - EU) and Turkmenistan
(natural gas; main importer – China). Both are actively pursuing the options for export diversification.
• Very poor in fossil fuels, Kyrgyzstan and especially Tajikistan are enormously endowed by hydro
resources.
• However, both Kyrgyzstan and, especially, Tajikistan suffer from shortage of electricity in winter and
surplus of it in summer. Obstacles to intra-regional cooperation originate in water disputes with
energy-rich downstream Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which need irrigation water in
summer for their agriculture.
• Unsettles cross-border relations between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
also affect energy security. Owing to Uzbekistan’s changed attitude towards bilateral border issues,
the prospects for regional cooperation have been improving since 2017.
• Energy-water-food and border tensions facilitated disintegration of CA United Power System (CAPS)
following the withdrawal of Turkmenistan (2003) and de facto departure from it by Uzbekistan
(2009). This resulted in Tajikistan being cut off the CAPS (2009).

4
 Kazakhstan
Reserves
Oil 30 bn b
Natural Gas 2.4 tn cm
Coal 31.3 bn t
Hydro Power 20,000 M W

Kyrgyz R.
Uzbekistan Reserves
Oil 0.04 bn b
Reserves
Natural Gas 5.7 bn cm
Oil 594 mn b
Coal 0.9 bn t
Natural Gas 1.8 tn cm Hydro Power 26,000 MW
Coal 3.3 bn t
Hydro Power 1,700 MW

Turkmenistan
Reserves
Oil 600 mn b
Natural Gas 7.5 tn cm
Coal modest
Hydro Power modest

Tajikistan
Reserves
Oil 0.01 bn b
Natural Gas 5.7 bn cm
Coal 3.6 bn t
Hydro Power 40,000 MW
Source: http://www.casa-1000.org/MainPages/CASAAbout.php#objective and CIA. 5
 The Naryn and the Amu Darya
rivers have potential to satisfy
abundant hydropower to Kyrgyz R.
and Tajikistan.

Moreover, these hydro resources

feed the water systems of other
Central Asian nations.

Dependency on transboundary
water is the highest in
Turkmenistan – 94%. Uzbekistan’s
dependency is 77% and
Kazakhstan’s is 42%.

6
Source: http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/83031452678633662/aral-sea-basin-large.pdf
 Hydropower potential in the upstream countries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyz R. is significant.
Abundant hydropower can help meet all countries’ electricity needs on a seasonal basis.
7
Source: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Brief/Europe%20and%20Central%20Asia/central-asia/CAS407531.pdf
 Central Asian Power System

Three CA remain connected

through CAPS: Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyz R.

After Turkmenistan broke

away from CAPS in 2003 and
Uzbekistan refused either
transit electricity or continue
electricity-in-summer for gas-
in-winter format (2009, 2012),
Tajikistan found itself
disconnected.

8
Source: http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/national_energy_grid/central-asia/graphics/central-asia-electricity-grid.gif
 Central Asian Economies’ Profiles, 2016 (2014)

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan

Population, mn 17.8 6.08 8.73 5.57 31.85

Population growth, % 1.43 2.09 2.16 1.73 1.74

GDP growth, % 1.10 3.88 4.62 6.20 7.80

GDP per capita growth, % -0.32 1.73 6.90 4.38 5.94

Fossil fuel energy consumption, % of total 99.17 69.30 54.90 n/a 97.74
Renewable energy consumption, % of total
1.36 28.25 40.71 0.04 2.87
final energy consumption
Alternative and nuclear energy, % of total
0.93 30.13 49.06 0 2.32
energy use
Combustible renewables and waste, % of total
0.03 0.08 0 0 0.01
energy
Energy use, kg of OE pc 4,434.40 650.40 335.39 4,893.49 1,419.48
Energy use , kg of OE per $1,000 GDP
188.01 204.42 131.70 341.43 280.12
(constant 2011 PPP)
GDP per unit of energy use, PPP $ per kg of
5.32 5.14 7.98 14.29 3.69
OE
GDP per unit of energy use, constant 2011
5.39 4.89 7.59 2.93 3.57
PPP $ per kg of OE
Energy intensity level of primary energy,
7.60 8.60 5.51 14.29 11.18
MJ/$2011 PPP GDP
Energy imports, net (% of energy use) -116.89 49.54 36.25 -191.51 -26.16

Source: WB Database. 9
 Central Asian Economies’ Growth – Energy, average growth 1992(3)-2014(5), %

6 GDP growth, annual, avg. 1993-2015, %

Total electricity output growth, avg. 1992-2014, % 5.95
5.70
5 Total final energy consumption growth, avg. 1992-2014, %

4 4.35
4.02

3 3.17
2.77
2
1.64
1
1.14
0.36 0.13
0
Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic -0.13
Tajikistan Turkmenistan -0.45
Uzbekistan
-1 -1.39
-1.57
-1.93
-2
Source: computed based on WB Database. 10
Trends in CAs’ Energy Profiles in 1990-2014

• Kazakhstan is the largest economy in terms of electricity output and total final energy consumption (TFEC),
followed by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The latter demonstrated the most notable increase.
• Central Asian economies exhibit dissimilar shifts in the patterns of electricity output and TFEC.
Electricity output
o Kazakhstan recovered to its 1990 level in 2010 and in 2014 had a growth of around 20% against 1990.
o Kyrgyzstan’s electricity output had been fluctuating and in 2014 was still under its 1990 level.

o Tajikistan’s output did not experience much volatility, but yet remains under its 1990 level.

o Turkmenistan overcame its 1990 level in 2007 and by 2014 increased electricity output by 40% against its 1990 level.

o Uzbekistan experienced lowest electricity output in 1999, which was nearly 20% less than in 1990, but since then gradually
recovered and as of 2014 had output comparable to its 1990 level.

TFEC
o Based on WB data, in 2014 Kazakhstan’s TFEC was at around its 1996 level.
o Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had TFEC close to their levels back in 1993.

o Turkmenistan increased TFEC by over 40 % compared to 1990 level.

o Unlike other CA economies, Uzbekistan did not see significant fluctuations throughout 1990-2014.
11
Role of RE in Electricity Generation in Central Asia

12
RE in Central Asian Economies, 2014

Kyrgyz
Kazakhstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Republic

Total electricity output, GWh 105,068 14,572 16,472 20,400 55,400

Renewable electricity output,

8,277 13,298 16,000 0 11,830
GWh

Renewable electricity share of

7.88 91.26 97.13 0 21.35
total electricity output, %

Total final energy consumption,

1,501,787.16 128,184.79 105,404.45 746,403.24 1,223,015.11
TFEC

Renewable energy
20,463.34 36,212.74 42,913.99 307.98 35,428.10
consumption, TJ

Renewable energy share of

1.36 28.25 40.71 0.04 2.90
TFEC, %

Source: WB Data, database Sustainable Energy for All. 13

 RE vs Income

Tajikistan
40
30

Kyrgyz Republic
20
10

Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $), 2016

Lower income CA economies have higher share of RE

(hydro); this is in line with the inverse Kuznets Curve:
renewable share falls with increasing income before Source: generated at IRENA http://resourceirena.irena.org.
reaching a turning point where it begins to rise again.

In CA, larger new installations were in large hydropower segment, although, according to IRENA 2018, costs of
solar and wind energy are decreasing most rapidly. While hydro power is still cheaper, time between financing
and commissioning small hydro project is 2.3 years, while for solar it is 0.5 year and for onshore wind 0.8
14 years.
Renewable Energy in CAs’ Energy Profiles in 1990-2014

• Renewable energy, hydropower, plays by far the decisive role in power generation and TFEC in
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and contributed slightly over 20% to electricity production in
Uzbekistan.

• Throughout 1990-2014, the role of renewable sources in electricity output in Kazakhstan

peaked in 2002 (to 15%) and then steadily declined to remain at around 1990 level of 8%. To
the contrary, Uzbekistan increased the employment of RE by some 10% against the 1990 level.
Reliance on hydro resources for electricity generation increased for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
by some 28% and nearly 10%, respectively.

• With hydro power included, Kazakhstan is much less relying on RE, while Turkmenistan
ascribes no role to RE. Without large HPP generation, Kazakhstan is most advanced for both
diversity of RE sources and scale of generation.

15
Share of RE in Electricity Output and Consumption, % 100
90 Kyrgyz R.
80
16
70
Kazakhstan
14 60
50
12
40
10 30

8 20
10
6
0
4

2
100
0
90

80
Tajikistan
Renewable electricity share of total electricity output (%) Renewable energy share of TFEC (%) 70

60

50
25
Uzbekistan 40
20 30

20
15

10
5
5 4 Turkmenistan
3
0
2
1

Source: WB Data from database Sustainable Energy for All.

0 16
1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Production of RE in Central Asian Economies, 2013-2015, TJ

Hydro Solar PV Wind

2013 27,832 4 18
Kazakhstan 2014 29,746 5 48
2015 33,369 166 474
2015/2013 20% 42 times 26 times
2013 47,178

Kyrgyz Republic 2014 47,871

2015 39,934
2015/2013 -15.4%
2013 61,456

Tajikistan 2014 58,723

2015 60,840
2015/2013 -1.1%
2013 41,616

Uzbekistan 2014 46,656 6

2015 52,679 6
2015/2013 26.6%

Note: no data available on Turkmenistan. 17

Source: IRENA database.
Kazakhstan RE Balance, 2015
Installed Capacity RE, 2016

Source: generated at IRENA http://resourceirena.irena.org.

Wind
• greatest potential - wind power: farms installed in Djungar Gates, Mangystau, Peak Karatau and Chu Ili Mts., projected installed capacity of 780 MW;
Solar
• under construction: Karaganda (100 MW), Burnoye – 2 (50 MW) (Burnoye – 1, 50 MW, completed in 2014);
Hydro
• the main hydropower resources are located in the eastern and southeastern regions: on the Irtysh river – Bukhtarma (675 MW), Ust-Kamenogorsk (332 MW) and Shulbinsk (702
MW); on the Ili river – Kapchagay (364 MW); on the Syrdarya river – Shardara (100 MW);
• the Moinak HPP (300 MW) is presently under construction. By 2020 it is planned to commission Kerbulak (50 MW), Bulak (68 MW) and number of smaller HPPs with a total
installed capacity of 56 MW (small-scale - with a capacity of up to 35 MW);
Biomass
• almost unused biomass waste; only one large-scale facility operates - Vostok Biogas (in Kostanai region), generation 3 GWh/y.

18
Kazakhstan
Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (by EY), RECAI

Recent RE policy developments:

strengthening state institutions responsible for energy efficiency in production, extraction

and consumption of energy:

• National Concept for Transition to a Green Economy up to 2050 (2012): RE by 2020

– 3% of the country’s electricity; 2030 - 30%; 2050 – 50%;

• Transition to a Green Economy, approved by the Order of the President of

Kazakhstan in 2013;

• Law On Supporting the Use of Renewable Energy Sources (2013). FIT for 15 years
(2013-2028) for biomass, solar, wind, geothermal and hydropower up to 35 MW;

• energy saving programmes to reduce energy intensity of industry by 25% by 2020 vs.
2008;

• policies to support development RE: law on investment – up to 30% of the costs

related to building, land and equipment can be subsidised;

• modernisation of existing power generation, power grids and oil refining installations.
19
Source: generated at World Energy Council.
 Tajikistan RE Balance, 2015

Installed Capacity RE, 2016

Source: generated at IRENA http://resourceirena.irena.org.

• The terrain and climate are highly favourable to the development of hydropower. Tajikistan’s economically feasible potential for hydro power is
estimated to be 263.5 TWh/yr, of which only about 6% has been harnessed so far.
• Installed hydro capacity amounts to about 5,500 MW. The principal HPP is Nurek (3,000 MW), which produces approximately 11.2 bn kWh/y. The
fourth and last unit at the Sangtuda 1 plant on the river Vakhsh came into operation in 2009; together, the four units added 670 MW of capacity.
• An enormous hydro potential exists on the river Pyanj (the principal tributary of the Amu-Darya): 14 HPPs with an aggregate capacity of 18,720
MW can be built.
20
Tajikistan
RECAI

Recent RE policy developments:

• Several mini and small plants, with a total capacity of 47 MW, were commissioned in
2010 and 2011.

• FIT based on the project’s costs, guaranteed for 15 years. Electricity produced from
wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and hydropower (up to 30 MW) plants are eligible
when plant operators receive approval from the government’s Antimonopoly Service.

• The Long-term Programme for Building Small Hydropower Plants 2009 – 2020
(construction of some 190 small HPP of total capacity 100 MW), the Target
Programme for the Widespread Use of Renewable Energy Sources and the Law on
the Use of Renewable Energy Sources (2010).

• State owned electricity company, Bargi Tajik, owns most electricity generation
capacity. Bargi Tajik will be restructured to become an independent regulator in the
electricity sector. Energy sector liberalization in combination with tariff policy reforms
will attract and increase private investment.
21
Source: generated at World Energy Council.
Kyrgyzstan RE Balance, 2015

Installed Capacity RE, 2016

Hydro
• In addition to Toktogul HPP (1,200 MW), Kambarata HPP 1 (1,860 MW);
• by 2020, Kambarata HPP 2 (120 MW);
• By 2025, Higher-Naryn cascade of HPPs (237.7 MW);
• by 2025-30, Kazarman cascade of HPPs (1,050 MW) and Susamyr-Kokemerens cascade of
HPPs (1,305 MW);

Source: generated at IRENA http://resourceirena.irena.org. 22

Kyrgyz R.

Recent RE policy developments

• only 10% of hydroelectric potential is being exploited;

• RE remains undeveloped; if only small-scale HPPs are defined as RE sources, the installed RE is 1.1%;
• HPPs have high wearout; Kambrata 120 MW HPP is the newest addition (2010), while small HPP were constructed in
1940-60s; main capacities were built in the 60s and 70s, including the largest Toktogul 1,200 MW HPP; total of 1,250
MW were constructed in the 1980s;
• The Law on Renewable Energy Sources (2009) introduces FIT, which are designed to ensure reimbursement and
coverage of investment costs for up to 8 years. However, the law is yet to be fully implemented, and several bylaws on
the definition of tariff calculation and determination, etc. are still under development;
• the laws on Energy and on Electrical Power envisages the restructuring of a state-owned OJSC Elektricheskie Stantsii,
which produces 98 % electricity. Legally unbundled market, but SO distribution and supply services remain;
• National Energy Programme recognizes environmental protection in the energy sector and the promotion of a new tariff
policy, but no specific targets are set;
• The Law on Renewable Energy Sources exempts imported and exported equipment and materials for the use of
renewable energy power plants from custom duties;
• transmission companies are obliged to purchase renewable electricity;
• subsidised electricity tariffs make private investment in RE unattractive;
23
Turkmenistan

Recent RE policy developments

• tremendous potential for solar power plants, especially in the regions Kuli, Gasan and
Ashgabat, remains unattended over Turkmenistan’s abundance of natural gas;

• the electricity market is managed by state owned Turkmenenergo, which owns and
operates the grid, generates and distributes the electricity to the end consumers.
• there is no RE legislation; the National Strategy on Climate Change (2012) outlines the
long-term vision for promoting RE and low-emission.
• the government decided to create a National Climate Change Fund to finance climate
change mitigation and adaptation projects, including RE generation.

24
 Uzbekistan RE Balance, 2015

Installed Capacity RE, 2016

Source: generated at IRENA http://resourceirena.irena.org. 25

Uzbekistan

Recent RE policy developments

• The Law on Rational Energy Utilization (1997) - project-specific FIT by allowing a

sufficient return on the capital invested, the future operation costs and other technical
costs for renewable energy facilities.
• State-owned electricity company UzbekEnergo generates 97.5% of the country’s
electricity. The remaining 2.5% is the entire installed small hydropower capacity, of which
2.1 percent is operated by state owned Uzsuvenergo and 0.4 % is operated by small
block-stations enterprises.
• To attract foreign investment, there are exemptions for newly established RE enterprises
from profit tax, property tax, and unified tax payments for small and medium enterprises.
RE producers are also exempt from payments to the country’s road fund. Those tax
privileges are granted for 3 years if the foreign investment is between $300,000 and $3
mn, or for 5 and 7 years respectively for investments up to and exceeding $10 mn
respectively. The government also ensures legislation stability for 10 years. Although, the
share of the foreign capital should not be less than 33% for the incentives to apply.
26
Technical Potential for Installed Renewable Electricity Capacity in MW

Kazakhstan Kyrgyz R. Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan

Small Hydro 4,800 1,800 23,000 1,300 1,800
Wind 354,000 1,500 2,000 10,000 1,600
Solar PV 3,760,000 267,000 195,000 655,000 593,000
Biomass 300 200 300 not significant 800

Hydropower, 27 99 317 2 15
estimated
generation
capacity, Twh

Source: UNDP, Renewable Energy Snapshot.

27
Domestically Embedded Hurdles to RE Development

• exclusive role of SOE in electric power sector => private investment, foreign capital is highly
problematic;

• high subsidisation of energy tariffs => disincentive to develop costly RE projects;

• lack of comprehensive RE legislation & policies with, perhaps, one exclusion being
Kazakhstan;

• aged energy systems (Kyrgyzstan’s HPP);

• high losses in electricity transmission;

• billing and collection;

28
International Cooperation for Strengthening Energy Security in CA

29
International Cooperation for Strengthening Energy Security in CA

EU
• INOGATE for 11 nations in EE, Caucasus and CA
• Investment Facility for Central Asia, IFCA
• Sustainable Energy Programme for Central Asia, CASEP
WB
• Central Asia Energy Water Development Program, CAEWDP
• support to CASA-1000 (2014-2020) - power sector interregional cooperation initiatives between Kyrgyz R. and
Tajikistan (CA) and Afghanistan and Pakistan (SA) under CASAREM (Central Asia South Asia Regional Electricity
Market)
ADB
• Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, CAREC
EBRD
• renewable energy projects in CA, especially in Kazakhstan
Eurasian Development Bank
• renewable energy projects in CA, especially in Kazakhstan

30
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