April 2, 2018

To: Interested Parties

From: Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
Re: Summary of Primary and General Election Polling in CA-10

Recent polling in California’s 10th congressional district finds that Michael Eggman is the
Democratic candidate best-positioned to defeat Congressman Jeff Denham. Not only does
Eggman enter the race with strong popularity, but he is the only candidate tested who is able to
defeat Denham in a head-to-head after balanced positive communication. Beyond this, he also
maintains his lead after balanced negatives against the candidates.

The following are key findings based on polling among N=400 likely general election voters, as
well as N=471 likely June primary voters. The poll was conducted March 13-15, 2018 by live
interviewers in both English and Spanish, and 45% of all interviews were conducted via cell
phone.

Michael Eggman enters the race with solid popularity ratings

Nearly half of general election voters are familiar with Eggman, and he enters the race with
strong popularity – 28% of voters are favorable towards him / 18% are unfavorable. Among
likely primary voters, his popularity is even better, 36% favorable / 16% unfavorable. When
filtered down to only Democratic-leaning primary voters, he has 4:1 popularity, 44% favorable /
11% unfavorable.

No other potential Democratic candidate has significant name ID at this stage – only 13% of
general election voters are familiar with Josh Harder. Only 18% of Democratic-leaning primary
voters can rate him.

Eggman begins the race against Congressman Jeff Denham within the margin of error

In a head-to-head against Denham, Michael Eggman begins the race down four points, 41% /
45%, with 13% of voters undecided. Denham is much better-positioned for reelection in a
match-up against Harder, leaning him by 11 points, 48% / 37%.

Balanced positive communication moves Eggman to a lead, while Harder continues to

trail Denham

After respondents were provided with short positive biographical statements from Eggman,
Harder, and Denham, Eggman’s strength as the best-positioned Democrat to take on Denham
solidifies – he leads Denham 46% / 45% after positives, while Harder continues to trail by seven
points, 42% / 49%. For the full text of the biographical statements tested, refer to Appendix A.

Denham’s negative is most damaging, while the attack on Eggman raises the fewest
concerns for voters

In a similar structure as the positives, respondents also heard one negative on Eggman, Harder,
and Denham. The attack on Denham tying him to Trump raised the most serious concerns for
voters, with 35% of general election voters saying that it raises very serious doubts for them
about Denham. The next-strongest attack was against Harder, for his San Francisco investor
 ALG Research 2

profile who invests in companies that outsource (25% very serious doubts). Relatively few
voters had concerns about the attack on Eggman, focused on his record as a losing past
candidate, and his time spent running a SuperPAC (18% very serious doubts).

Following the negatives, Eggman maintains his one-point lead over Denham (46% / 45%), while
Harder continues to trail, 42% / 47%. For a full text of the negatives tested against all three
candidates, refer to Appendix B.

Poll Vote Progression

POST-PROFILE POST-NEGATIVE
CURRENT VOTE VOTE VOTE
EGGMAN V DENHAM -4 (41% - 45%) +1 (46% - 45%) +1 (46% - 45%)

HARDER V DENHAM -11 (37% - 48%) -7 (42% - 49%) -5 (42% - 47%)

 ALG Research 3

Appendix A: Text of Positive Candidate Bio Statements

Michael Eggman, a Democrat, is a local farmer and beekeeper. Eggman says growing
up, he helped his parents run the farm, and he knows first-hand the hardships Central
Valley families face. In Congress, he will be a strong voice for working people because
that’s who he is. Eggman will fight to level the playing field, and work for more good
jobs, affordable health care, and water policies that are fair for the Valley.

Josh Harder, a Democrat, is an investor who helps small businesses create jobs.
Harder says that his parents raised him to work hard and give back to the community. In
Congress, Harder will be a true progressive. He'll pass Medicare for All, he'll make
immigration more fair, and he'll stand up for working people including fighting for a
fifteen dollar an hour minimum wage.

Jeff Denham, a Republican, is a Valley farmer, small businessman and veteran.

Denham says after college and serving in the military, he started several successful
small businesses in agriculture here in the Valley and learned how to create jobs, make
payroll, and balance a budget. In Congress, Denham is focused on growing California’s
economy and creating jobs in the state
 ALG Research 4

Appendix B: Text of Negative Statements

Michael Eggman has already run for this seat twice, and lost both times. Since losing
his last election, Eggman went to run a SuperPAC funded by special interests, and now
he is running for Congress again to advance his career and make money.

Josh Harder is a San Francisco investor who made almost half a million dollars
investing in companies that sent jobs overseas and imported foreign workers. Now he's
moving here from San Francisco just to run for Congress

Jeff Denham has voted with Trump more than ninety percent of the time and even
bragged about helping Trump get a government contract to build his luxury hotel in DC
which Trump is using to personally profit while in office. He also voted to raise health
care premiums and deny people coverage with pre-existing conditions