12/20/2017 AIs won’t really rule us, they will be very interested in us: Juergen Schmidhuber - The Hindu

THE WEDNESDAY INTERVIEW | INTERVIEW

AIs won’t really rule us, they will be very interested in us:
Juergen Schmidhuber

Jacob Koshy
DECEMBER 20, 2017 00:15 IST
UPDATED: DECEMBER 19, 2017 22:27 IST

The pioneering computer scientist prophesies that machines smarter than humans
will emerge in the next two decades

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12/20/2017 AIs won’t really rule us, they will be very interested in us: Juergen Schmidhuber - The Hindu

Juergen Schmidhuber, 54, is a computer scientist who works on Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Considered to be one of the pioneers in improving neural networks, his techniques, the best
known being Long Short-Term Memory, have been incorporated in speech translation
software in smartphones. In this interview conducted in Berlin, he speaks of developments in
AI, why the fear of job loss due to AI is unfounded, and his work. Excerpts:

What is the most exciting AI project under way in the world?

I would be quite biased because I’d say what’s happening in my lab is the most exciting. My
goal remains the same as it has been for a very long time: to build a general-purpose AI that
can learn to do multiple things. It must learn the learning algorithm itself (that can help it
master chess as well as drive a car, for instance) — true meta-learning, as it’s called. We’ve been
at it for 30 years and it’s getting more feasible over time. On this journey, we are producing less
sophisticated but more useful stuff, like smartphones.

How impressed are you by AlphaGo, a creation of Google DeepMind, that now
beats human Go champions?
DeepMind is a company that was heavily shaped by some of my students. Shane (Legg), one of
the co-founders, was among those who worked in my lab. It’s great that you can play Go better
than any human. On the other hand, the basic techniques (in making AlphaGo) date back to
the previous millennium. In the ’90s, there was a self-teaching neural network by IBM that
learned to play backgammon by playing against itself. So board games are kind of simple in
the sense that they can use a ‘feed-forward’ network. (These are layers of neural networks
arranged to mimic neurons in the brain. The programe makes decisions based on how
information moves up these layers.) There are no feedback layers and they cannot ‘learn’
sequences. These principles were developed when computers were 100,000 times more
expensive than today. It’s great that Go (like chess), which is so popular in Asia, is among those
that machines play better.

What is Long Short-Term Memory?

It’s a technique in speech recognition and translation that many major companies — Facebook,
Amazon, Samsung — are using and is based on work that we did in the early 1990s. It’s a
recurrent network, a little bit like in the brain. The brain has a hundred billion neurons and
each is connected to 10,000 others. That’s a million-billion connections and each of them has a
‘strength’ that indicates how much one neuron influences another.
Then there are feedback connections that make it (the network) like a general-purpose
computer and you can feed in videos through the input neurons, acoustics through
microphones, tactile information through sensors, and some are output neurons that control
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finger muscles. Initially all connections are random and the network, perceiving all this,
outputs rubbish. There’s a difference between the rubbish that comes out and the translated
sentence that should have come out. We measure the difference and translate it into a change
of all these connection strengths so that they become ‘better connections’ and learn through
the Long Short-Term Memory algorithm to adjust internal connections to understand the
structure of, say, Polish, and learn to translate between them.

Given that self-driving cars are a reality, do we need AI machines to be

regulated or do you think it could kill innovation?
Self-driving cars are now so well understood that you can, in certain countries, take some of
them out on the roads. It’s old hat. They have been there since the 1980s and were
implemented in the Autobahns. They went at 180 km/h, or thrice the speed of the Google cars,
and went from Munich to Denmark on the highways. Back then, computers were 100,000
times more expensive. Now, thanks to Deep Learning (a way of organising neural networks
and the zeitgeist of the field), pattern recognition since 2011 has vastly improved.
 
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But what about people in self-driven cars who could make

mistakes?
The nature of AI is that it doesn’t know. Machine learning is all about
Microsoft new
Bing update
failing and learning from failure. It’s not like the perfect robots of Isaac
aims to tackle Asimov stories. Were a car to sense a situation that could potentially lead
fake news with
artificial to an accident, 99% of the time it’s going to brake hard. There will be
intelligence flashing lights that will warn people in cars behind you that this car is
going to brake hard and you should do the predictable thing of braking hard too and not
swerving blindly. In some situations, that too may not be the perfect thing… maybe there’s
another way to save a life by doing something really complicated. However, if there can’t be a
fix to self-driven cars to address this and it leads to, say, one life lost per 100 million per day as
opposed to 10 as of today (where manual cars are the norm), then lawmakers would move to
make it mandatory to have only self-driven cars on the road. There could still be mistakes, but
the law of large numbers says that on average, there will be fewer deaths from self-driven cars.
This is also provided, of course, that insurance companies and such carmakers aren’t driven to
bankruptcy. If better traffic is key to the better running of society, then systems will shift
accordingly. In that sense, it’s no different from what has happened in the past too.

What about AI’s potential to destroy jobs?

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Interestingly, people have predicted similar things for decades — for example, in industrial
robots. Volkswagen and other companies had hundreds of millions of workers who lost jobs to
robots. But look at countries with a high per capita presence of industrial robots — Japan,
South Korea, Germany. They all have low unemployment rates. This was because lots of new,
unanticipated jobs came up. Who could have thought there’s a job where people make money
being YouTube bloggers? Or selling Apps? Some make a lot of money, some don’t, but it’s still a
lot of new jobs. It’s easy to see what jobs will be lost but harder to predict what new ones will
emerge. Societies must think of alternative ways to adjust to these new realities. There was a
referendum on universal basic income in Switzerland. It failed, but still got 30% of the vote.
You wait another 20 years and it could be 55%.

Do you think it will be possible for AI systems to ‘learn’ ethical and moral
codes?
Anything that can be taught via demonstration can be taught to an AI in principle. How are we
teaching our kids to be valuable members of society? We let them play around, be curious and
explore the world. We punish them, for instance, when they take the lens and burn ants. And
they learn to adopt our ethical and moral values. The more situations they are exposed to, the
closer they come to understanding values. We cannot prove or predict that they are always
going to do the right thing, especially if they are smarter than the parents. Einstein’s parents
couldn’t predict what he would do, and some of the things he discovered can be used for evil
purposes. But this is a known problem. In an artificial neural network, it’s easier to see, in
hindsight, what went wrong. For instance, in a car crash, we can find which neuron influenced
the other. If it’s a huge network, it will take some time, but it’s possible. With humans you
can’t do this. You can only ask them and very often, they will lie. Artificial systems, in that
sense, are under control.

Do you believe in the concept of super intelligence (when AI evolves to a level

that far exceeds human capability)? Is there a date by which, given current
progress, machines could ‘rule us’?
I would be very surprised if, within a few decades, there are no AIs smarter than ourselves.
They won’t really rule us. They will be very interested in us — ‘artificial curiosity’ as the term
goes. That’s among the areas I work on. As long as they don’t understand life and civilisation,
they will be super interested in us and their origins. In the long run, they will be much more
interested in others of their kind and it will expand to wherever there are resources. There’s a
billion times more sunlight in space than here. They will emigrate and be far away from
humans. They will have very little, if anything, to do with humans. It won’t be like a
(dystopian) Arnold Schwarzenegger movie.

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12/20/2017 AIs won’t really rule us, they will be very interested in us: Juergen Schmidhuber - The Hindu

But can we go extinct or be exterminated like Neanderthals?

No. So, people are much smarter than, say, frogs, but there are lots of frogs out there, right?
Just because you are smarter than them doesn’t mean you have any desire to exterminate
them. As humans, we are responsible for the accidental extermination of a lot of species that
we also don’t know exist. That is true, but at least you won’t have the silly conflict of
Schwarzenegger movies, or like The Matrix, where bad AIs live off the energy of human brains.
That, incidentally, is the stupidest plot ever.
Thirty watts (what a brain produces) and the power plant used to keep the human alive is
much more. When should you be afraid of anybody? When you share goals and have to fight
for it. That’s why the worst enemy of a man is another man. However, the best friend of
another man is also man or a woman. You can collaborate or compete. An extreme example of
collaboration may be love — that is shared goals towards having a family. The other extreme
could be war. AI will be interested in other AI, like frogs are interested in other frogs.

What’s the limitation to AI now — code or hardware?

It’s a little bit about code although the basic ideas are from the previous millennium. We have
some breakthroughs but the dominant theme is that hardware is getting cheaper every year.
In 30 years, it’s going to be a factor of a million. Soon we will have a small device that computes
as much as the human brain. In our lab, we’ve profited a lot from hardware built earlier by
companies such as NVidia. They didn’t care for Deep Learning and only about selling graphics
processors to the video game industry. But then it turned out that these were exactly what was
needed to make neural networks fast.

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