Millsaps College-Chism Strategies State of the State Survey

Summary of Findings—April 9, 2018

➢ Mississippians remain divided as to whether their state is headed in the right or wrong
direction. Our findings indicate that a plurality of 44% believe that the state is heading in the
right direction, 37% see things heading in the wrong direction, and another 20% are unsure.
Sharps lines of division emerge among the Mississippi electorate regarding the state’s
direction, with Caucasians largely viewing the state as heading in the right direction (+26%)
and African Americans sensing the state is on the wrong track (-25%). Those who identify as
Strong Republicans are the most likely to report that the state is heading in the right direction
(+60%), while Strong Democrats and those who Lean Democratic see the state moving in the
wrong direction (-40% and -53%, respectively).

Despite these divisions, the “right track” numbers have been moving slightly upward since the
first Millsaps College-Chism Strategies State of the State Survey last September, as reflected in
the table below.
Do you believe that Mississippi is headed in the right
direction or the wrong direction?
Millsaps-
Right Wrong
Chism Poll Unsure
Direction Direction
Date
Sep-17 37% 40% 23%
Jan-18 42% 36% 22%
Apr-18 44% 37% 20%

➢ Although there are some divisions within the electorate, Mississippians largely approve of
Governor Phil Bryant’s job performance. 54% express approval and 35% disapprove of his
performance. The second term governor is particularly popular among white voters (+47% net
approval), Strong Republicans (+81%), and those who Lean Republican (+62%). Bryant’s
rating among African Americans is especially weak at -34%. Overall, men (+19%) and women
(+17%) within the electorate approve of the governor’s performance. These numbers have
remained largely unchanged since the September Millsaps-Chism Survey, which reported that
54% approved of Bryant’s performance while 33% disapproved.

➢ Voters provided a mixed response when it comes to evaluating Lieutenant Governor Tate
Reeves. Overall, 38% of respondents approve of Reeves’ performance in office, 34%
disapprove, and 23% are unsure. Last September, 38% also reported that they approved of
Reeves’ performance while 32% disapproved. Reeves finds the highest levels of approval
among Caucasians (+25%), those who attended but did not graduate from college (+20),
Strong Republicans (+55%), and those who Lean Republican (+21%). The Lieutenant
Governor’s lowest ratings came from African Americans (-31%), Strong Democrats (-42%),
those who Lean Democrat (-35%). Frequently cited as a frontrunner for the Republican
gubernatorial nomination in 2019, Reeves appears to be quite strong among Strong
 Republicans, but a quarter of those who Lean Republican are still unsure of how to evaluate his
performance as Lieutenant Governor.

➢ Attorney General Jim Hood remains our most popular statewide elected official. 55%
approve of Hood’s performance, 25% disapprove, and 17% report that they are unsure. These
numbers remain steady from our last measurement of Hood in September, when 52% said they
approved and 25% reported to disapprove of his work. Hood enjoys high levels of support
from Caucasians (+34%), African Americans (+33%), those with less than a high school
education (+42%), voters holding a degree from a two-year college (+41%), four-year college
graduates (+30%), and those with advanced degrees (+30%). Voters approving of Hood appear
to be bipartisan in nature, including those who Lean Republican (+30%) and Strong
Republicans (+25%) saying that they approve of the job being done by the Democratic
officeholder. Meanwhile, approval for Hood is also found among Independents (+23%), those
who Lean Democratic (+44%), and Strong Democrats (+43%).

➢ The Mississippi Legislature’s job performance evaluations remain underwater at -11%,

but voters tend to give higher marks to their own legislators than they do for the
institution itself. Despite the overall low approval rating for the body, it should be noted that
the Legislature’s ratings have gradually ticked upward since the first Millsaps College-Chism
Strategies State of the State Survey. One piece of positive news for the Mississippi Legislature
is that while the voters tend to disapprove of the institution, 40% approve of the work being
done by their own members of the Legislature while 30% disapprove of the legislators who
directly represent them.

Mississippi State Legislature Approval Rating

Date of Poll Approve Disapprove Unsure
Sep-17 27% 45% 28%
Jan-18 26% 38% 36%
Apr-18 30% 41% 26%

➢ Voters don’t know very much about two of the most visible members of the Mississippi
Legislature. Speaker of the House Philip Gunn (R-Hinds) is unknown by 42% of survey
respondents. Jay Hughes (D-Lafayette) is unknown by 61% of respondents. Speaker Gunn’s
job performance rating is a net -9%, while Representative Hughes posts a -1% job performance
evaluation, well within the margin of error.

There are pockets of clear approval or disapproval among those who recognize either of these
legislators—both of whom have recently been discussed as potential statewide officeholders.
Gunn enjoys an approval rating of +20% among Strong Republicans while Hughes has a +23%
approval rating among voters with less than a high school degree and a +7 rating with those
with a four-year college degree. Both individuals have relatively weak evaluations from
African Americans (Gunn -26%, Hughes -6%) and among male voters (Gunn -13%, Hughes -
5%) while women tend to give higher marks to both (Gunn -6%, Hughes +1%). Interestingly,
 Hughes, a Democratic legislator, enjoys a more robust approval rating among those who are
Strong Republicans (+8%) than among those who are Strong Democrats (-10%).

➢ President Trump continues to be a divisive figure for Mississippians, with a slight

majority of 51% approving and 45% disapproving of his job performance. Public opinion
regarding the Trump presidency in Mississippi appears to mirror polling trends found in other
states and nationwide, as the president’s net approval rating among white Mississippians stands
at +47% with whites and -80% among black Mississippians. Mississippi men approve of
Trump at +11%, while women disapprove at -3%. The data also demonstrate a sharp partisan
divide, with Democrats strongly disapproving of Trump’s performance and Republicans
strongly approving. However, Independent voters in Mississippi are evenly split, with 46%
approving and 47% disapproving of Trump’s work as president.

➢ Fixing the state’s roads and bridges continues to top the list of the electorate’s policy
priorities for the third consecutive Millsaps College-Chism Strategies State of the State
Survey, with nearly 30% choosing it as their number one priority. More funding for public
schools and making healthcare more accessible and affordable placed second and third among
voters, as they have also done in the two prior State of the State Surveys. Repairing Mississippi
roads and bridges was the top policy priority for both men and women within the electorate,
was favored as the most important priority among voters 45 and up, and was the top priority
cutting across the partisan divide (this policy was tied with more funding for public schools
among Independents and those Leaning Democratic).

What should be the top priority for Mississippi’s elected leaders working in Jackson?
Sep- Jan- Apr-
Policy Priority Options
17 18 18
Reducing the size of state government 16% 11% 12%
Fixing roads and bridges 27% 23% 29%
Giving tax incentives and grants for companies that create jobs 13% 10% 9%
Making healthcare more accessible and affordable 14% 21% 14%
More funding for public schools 14% 19% 20%
More funding for universities and community colleges 3% 3% 3%
Protecting traditional family values 6% 7% 11%
Other 7% 6% 2%

➢ Mississippians are evenly divided on whether teachers with specialized training ought to
be permitted to carry guns in the classroom, but overwhelmingly support tighter
regulation of gun shows in the state. Roughly 46% of Mississippians favor arming certain
trained teachers in classrooms while roughly 46% oppose the idea. Voters are split on this issue
by partisan affiliation, with between 70-74% of Republicans backing the idea and 71-85% of
Democrats opposed. Independents are also opposed, with 44% in favor and 50% against the
proposal. Mississippi men and women are also split on the issue, with the men tending to
support the concept (+6%) and women tending to oppose it (-10%).
 Support for tightening regulations on gun shows in Mississippi cuts across gender, age, party,
and educational divides. The idea is favored by Caucasians (+54%), African Americans
(+70%), Hispanics (+42%), Asian Americans (+34%), Strong Republicans (+58%),
Republican Leaners (+42%), Independents (+44%), Democratic Leaners (+65%), and Strong
Democrats (+80%), men (+46%), women (+69%), and voters of all education levels.
➢ Mississippi voters strongly favor expanding Medicaid in the state to provide coverage to
those who are uninsured under the Affordable Care Act. 52% of voters favor the expansion
while 36% are opposed. The data shows that a 50-point difference exists between Caucasian
and African American voters, as 35% of the former support expanding Medicaid while 85% of
the latter are supportive. Nearly 90% of Democrats and 57% of Independents favor the policy
while support among Republicans falls between 20% among those who Lean Republican and
25% of those who are Strong Republicans.

➢ 64% of voters support increasing the sales tax on cigarettes in Mississippi while just 29%
are opposed. Lawmakers killed a proposal to enact such an increase during the last month of
the Legislative Session. Despite this, the increase is popular among voters across demographic
groups including Caucasian voters (+42%) and African Americans (+21%). The plan also finds
support among Strong Republicans (+39%), Republican Leaners (+36%), Independents
(+34%), Democratic Leaners (+33%), and Strong Democrats (+22%). In addition to being
supported by voters in all age classifications, both male and female voters show support for
raising the state’s cigarette tax (+37 and +30, respectively).