ENGW3307
Cecelia Musselman
3/16/18
P2 Final Annual Reviews Style
Word Count: 3023
Key words
Sea level rise, transportation, infrastructure, coastal flooding, roads
1. Introduction
Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most studied (1) and most accepted (1, 2) effects of global climate
change. The sea rises as the volume of seawater in the oceans increases. Global increases in the average
annual surface temperatures increases the sea level by melting polar and alpine glacial ice and causing the
thermal expansion of liquid water. As the planet warms further, sea levels will likewise increase. Some
impacts of SLR include not only the inundation of low lying coastal areas, but also the exacerbation of
storm surges (1, 2, 3) and increased erosion of shorelines and coastal areas (1, 3, 4). Transportation
systems in developed coastal areas will be heavily impacted, most visibly by the flooding of infrastructure
and roads. Such inundation can cause significant economic and social impacts. This study reviews the
scientific literature from recent years (2015-2018) on the impacts of SLR on transportation systems and
possible mitigative or adaptive solutions.
2. Methodology
2.1 Study selection
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Studies reviewed were all peer-reviewed primary research articles selected from Web of Science,
ScienceDirect, and Compendex searches using a combination of the search terms: “Sea level rise,”
“Transportation,” “Infrastructure,” and “Cities.” A filter was used to select studies published between the
years 2015 and 2018. Search results were manually filtered for content on human transportation systems.
Studies were all selected from what was immediately accessible from the Northeastern database. Only
studies analyzing locations in the United States were included, not by intention, but by language and
availability.
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SLR Data Years Base SLR Additional Combinations
Study Source evaluated Scenarios flooding of scenarios Justification
Asadabadi et al.
(Nov 2017, Jun 2030, 2050, 5th, 50th, 95th 4 flooding Percentiles chosen to represent the wide
2017) Climate Central 2070 percentiles scenarios 36 range of possibilities
From the most systematic study for
New York City Manhattan; used by local government;
Panel on Climate 100yr and 500yr using upper percentile estimates to model
Yin et al. Change 2050, 2080 90th percentile floods 4 low probability extreme scenarios
Near future
(1998-2063),
Scripps Institute Mid-future 50th and 95th Show predictions for different emissions
Moftakhari et al. of Oceanography (2018-2083) percentiles daily tides 6 scenarios
daily high tide
(likely and high)
National likely range, and extreme high
Shilling et al. Research Council 2050, 2100 high range tide (likely only) 6 Represent a range of possible conditions
Low (Historic
rate), Middle
(upper end of
semi-empirical
projections),
high (upper end
Virginia Institute 2000, 2020, of projections
of Marine 2040, 2060, accounting for 3 flooding Highlight uncertainty and show the broad
Sadler et al. Sciences 2080, 2100 ice melt) scenarios 54 range of scenarios
Chose the higher of 2 models (nonlinear
projection based on historical rates vs.
projection including temperature increase
Federal Highway and local subsidence) to prepare for worst
Lu et al. Administration 2060 0.6 m 1 case scenario
Point of greatest change in impacts on
Han et al. NOAA 2030 4 ft 1 transportation and land use
Figure 1 – Table of which SLR projections were used, how they were evaluated, and why they were chosen
3.2 The Importance of Case Studies
SLR rise will not affect geographically different locations in the same way. It is important to account for
local factors such as tidal range, geography, elevation, and isostatic land movements. In particular, the
southeastern United States is undergoing subsidence, amplifying the effects of SLR (7), while the
northeastern United States is experiencing post-glacial rebound, offsetting the effects of SLR. As seen in
Figure 1, the studied literature obtained SLR projection data from a variety of sources, each with data
focusing on the area of study.
Case studies of small geographic areas are important additions to the literature as decision-making tools.
This is not only because SLR projections need to be customized to local trends, but also because
government entities making decisions only preside over limited districts.
Because case studies are unique to a region, it may be hard to draw specific comparisons between results.
No standard projection that can be used for all coastal areas exist. However, there are common
overarching study methodologies and patterns.
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economic loss in the efficiency of supply chains. The repair of roads that will experience more weathering
and erosion from a higher frequency of flooding also has a direct financial cost (1, 3).
Navigating around or through flooded regions also creates a longer emergency response time due to
reduction in overlap between service areas and the flooding of critical infrastructure such as police
stations and hospitals (2). Driving through flooded roads also increases risk to emergency personnel going
to rescue victims (1). These are matters of concern especially when longer response times mean lives lost.
Flooding also threatens massive change to public transit systems. Boston’s commuters will be impacted
because of the radial transit system (8) combined with the city center’s general vulnerability, being
located on the waterfront on top of reclaimed marshland. Under a 4 ft SLR scenario, Boston train
ridership will drop by 70-89% because of the relative inflexibility of the tracks, tunnels, and stations (8).
The economic loss from fewer train riders may be offset by an increase in bus riders. Bus stations and
routes can be more easily changed and thus are more resilient than train stations and train track (8).
However, there would be an economic cost associated with changing the transportation infrastructure
from rail to road (1).
SLR currently exacerbates coastal flooding due to storm surge, but as global sea levels rise, flooding is
only set to increase. In the near future, Marin County, California could have 1.5 to 2.5 times more road
flooding in amount of road flooded and duration of flooding (5).
5. Resilience
5.1 Mitigation and Adaptation
Resilience is the ability to return to normal after a disturbance. There are two aspects of resilience against
a changing sea level. The first is mitigation, preventative movements taken to lessen the effects of
disruption when it hits. The second is adaptation, reactive movements taken after a disruption to restore
the system to normal.
Global carbon emission reductions may be considered a mitigative action, because SLR is driven by
warming. If there is less human induced warming, there will be a smaller change in sea levels. This
possibility is incorporated into SLR studies as the lower the range of SLR projections (see section 2.1).
However, even with drastic global carbon emission reductions, some sea level change is inevitable,
because of the greenhouse gasses accumulated in the atmosphere from decades prior. Thus, the impacts of
SLR on transportation systems can only partially be prevented by emissions reductions, and action must
include ways to lessen the impacts of the inevitable transgression of seawater.
Building sea walls (1, 3), elevating roads (1) and bridges, and increasing sea water pumps and drainage
(1, 3) may help transportation systems become more resilient. In the event of inundation, the widening of
alternate routes to increase capacity (4) and having more overlap between service areas of rescue
operations (2) will also help to decrease the impact of flooding.
Even disasters that have had their impacts lessened may still cause significant damage. In this case,
adaptive action would take place after damage has occurred to rebuild and strengthen defenses. Some
funds, therefore, should be set aside for emergency relief and rebuilding.
In most cases, the results of mitigative and adaptive actions are the same. The difference lies in the
proactiveness of the governing body to prepare for the effects of SLR.
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5.2 Transportation Planning with Limited Resources
In general, the cost of being prepared (cost of investment, damage and lost economic opportunity, and
repair) is much less than the cost of making no investments (cost of damage and lost economic
opportunity) (1, 3). Asadabadi et al. found that in the Washington DC area, compared to doing nothing,
investing in seawalls, raised roads, and drainage systems could save $302 billion in lost trips and travel
time costs over a period of 60 years (3). However, mitigation suffers from the same problems as SLR
projections themselves: there is much uncertainty of how much protection will be needed due to the wide
range of possible future sea levels.
Governing bodies have limited resources to spend on preparing for and adapting to SLR. Decision makers
must make efficient choices in where to put flood defenses. Case studies aim to help decision makers
prioritize where they invest by identifying critical sections of high traffic roads and bridges that are
vulnerable to inundation (1, 3, 4, 7, 8). (See section 2.2)
Once decision makers have decided on which sections of road are most critical to the transportation
system, they must decide how much of available funds if any should be used to prepare for SLR and how
much should be set aside for disaster relief and rebuilding. Asadabadi et al. propose a recursive noisy
genetic algorithm to find the optimal investment amounts for three SLR scenarios (1, 3).
Once the invested structures are constructed, they are relatively inflexible. Raising the roadway by six
inches will not reduce impacts by much if the sea rises more than six inches. Asadabadi et al. address this
problem and found that investing in several structures that hedged against three possible sea levels had a
higher return on investment than investing solely for the 50th percentile SLR scenario only to have the low
or high possibility realized (1). Asadabadi et al. stress the importance of accurate predictions to better
allocate resources where they are needed (1).
6. Context
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6.1 The Near Future
The urgency of addressing problems due to SLR may sometimes be lost within bureaucracy (4) and vague
commitments. SLR is not a problem to be solved later in the vague distant future. Although 2050 and
2100 may seem a long way ahead, it is within a human lifetime. The author would be 52 in 2050 and 102
in 2100. We are already seeing hints of the devastation SLR can bring to our transportation systems in
extreme storm surges that have coincided with the high tide. Grayson, the bomb cyclone in January 2018
caused the highest storm surge in Boston history with 4.88 ft above the mean higher high water levels,
breaking the record of the Blizzard of ’78. The sun and moon literally aligned in the worst possible
combination, with the storm hitting the coast at perihelion spring high tides (9). The flooding nearly
incapacitated the coast of Massachusetts, as crews worked frantically through the night to clear waist-high
level water from the streets before the morning freeze (10). The frequency of such extreme storm surge
events will only increase with rising sea levels and warming temperatures (1, 2, 5).
Summary Points
• Sea level rise is a complex issue with many detrimental effects to the transportation system.
Most effects on the transportation system stem from the flooding of roads.
• There is some amount of uncertainty associated with predicting the future in terms of sea
level rise. Therefore, it is important to consider a range of possibilities and possibly hedge
against the full range of effects.
• Case studies are important tools for decision-makers because a case study is specific to an
area and can identify key road segments in a managed area that are vulnerable to sea level
rise.
• To lessen the impacts of sea level rise on transportation, it will be necessary to take mitigative
action and make preparations for a higher sea level while still keeping a reserve of funds for
emergency relief and rebuilding.
• Both stakeholder opinion and effects on the environment should be included in decision
making for addressing sea level rise’s impacts on transportation systems.
• A premonition of the effects of sea level rise can be seen in the devastation that occurs in
extreme storm surges. If such damage is to be avoided, urgent action is needed.
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Disclosure
The author is aware that there may be bias in this review from selection of articles, time restriction of the
assignment, and language bias.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank my classmates and instructor Cecelia Musselman for their comments during the in-
class review. I would also like to thank Jennifer Garland and John wise for their peer reviews, and my
mother, younger sister, and Christopher Grasso and Phil Anderson from the Global Resilience Institute
for reading my review and providing suggestions.
References
1. Asadabadi A, Miller-Hooks E. 2017. Assessing strategies for protecting transportation
infrastructure from an uncertain climate future. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and
Practice. 105: 27-41
https://www-sciencedirect-com.ezproxy.neu.edu/science/article/pii/S0965856416309673
2. Yin J, Yu D, Lin N, Wilby RL. 2017. Evaluating the cascading impacts of sea level rise and
coastal flooding on emergency response spatial accessibility in Lower Manhattan, New York
City. Journal of Hydrology. 55:648-658.
https://www-sciencedirect-com.ezproxy.neu.edu/science/article/pii/S0022169417307321
4. Shilling FM, Vandever J, May K, Gerhard I. 2016. Adaptive Planning for Transportation
Corridors Threatened by Sea Level Rise.Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board. 2599: 9-16
http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/abs/10.3141/2599-02
6. Sadler JM, Haselden N, Mellok K, Hackel A. 2017. Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Roadway
Flooding in the Hampton Roads Region, Virginia. Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 23
https://ascelibrary-org.ezproxy.neu.edu/doi/full/10.1061/%28ASCE%29IS.1943-555X.0000397
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8. Han Y, Zegras PC, Rocco V, Dowd M, Murga M. 2017. When the Tides Come, Where will
We Go? Modeling the Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Greater Boston, Massachusetts,
Transport and Land Use System. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation
Research Board. 2653:54-64
http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/pdf/10.3141/2653-07
9. Henson B. 2018. January Thaw in Sight after Two-Week Wintry Onslaught and “Bomb
Cyclone”. Weather Underground.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/january-thaw-sight-after-two-week-wintry-onslaught-and-
bomb-cyclone
10. Arsenault M, Ellement JR. 2018. Roads, cars submerged: Storm raged with snow, floods.
Boston Globe.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/01/04/snow-and-high-winds-bear-down-coastal-new-
england/11cdrd1lbGhkYl7bpbUL1J/story.html