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Jade Lin

ENGW3307
Cecelia Musselman
3/16/18
P2 Final Annual Reviews Style
Word Count: 3023

Impacts of Sea Level Rise on


Transportation: A Review of Recent Case
Studies
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) will severely affect coastal transportation systems, with most problems arising from
road flooding. Sea level projections have some degree of uncertainty, so it is important to consider and
hedge against a range of effects. Investing in preparations while keeping a reserve fund for repair is
necessary. Both stakeholder opinion and the environmental effects should be included in decisions
addressing SLR impacts on transportation systems. A preview of SLR’s devastation is seen during
extreme storm surges. If such damage is to be avoided, urgent action is needed.

Key words
Sea level rise, transportation, infrastructure, coastal flooding, roads

1. Introduction
Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most studied (1) and most accepted (1, 2) effects of global climate
change. The sea rises as the volume of seawater in the oceans increases. Global increases in the average
annual surface temperatures increases the sea level by melting polar and alpine glacial ice and causing the
thermal expansion of liquid water. As the planet warms further, sea levels will likewise increase. Some
impacts of SLR include not only the inundation of low lying coastal areas, but also the exacerbation of
storm surges (1, 2, 3) and increased erosion of shorelines and coastal areas (1, 3, 4). Transportation
systems in developed coastal areas will be heavily impacted, most visibly by the flooding of infrastructure
and roads. Such inundation can cause significant economic and social impacts. This study reviews the
scientific literature from recent years (2015-2018) on the impacts of SLR on transportation systems and
possible mitigative or adaptive solutions.

2. Methodology
2.1 Study selection

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Studies reviewed were all peer-reviewed primary research articles selected from Web of Science,
ScienceDirect, and Compendex searches using a combination of the search terms: “Sea level rise,”
“Transportation,” “Infrastructure,” and “Cities.” A filter was used to select studies published between the
years 2015 and 2018. Search results were manually filtered for content on human transportation systems.
Studies were all selected from what was immediately accessible from the Northeastern database. Only
studies analyzing locations in the United States were included, not by intention, but by language and
availability.

3. Sea Level Rise Projections


3.1 Uncertainty Within Projections
One of the inherent problems with studying the future impacts of SLR is that the future cannot be
predicted with total certainty. SLR is primarily driven by an increase in temperatures, which causes the
volume of seawater to increase in two ways: through the thermal expansion of water and the melting of
alpine and continental glaciers. The amount of warming and therefore amount of SLR are functions of
global greenhouse gas emissions. Uncertainty in SLR projections arises from a variety of sources,
including emission scenarios, climate model structures, and downscaling from global models to local
models (5). Most SLR research address uncertainty from emission scenarios by providing a range of
possibilities. Each possibility is based on a global temperature curve that assumes a certain amount of
emissions or reductions.
There is much variability within the reviewed literature regarding which SLR projections are included in
the study and why they were chosen (see Figure 1).
Six studies chose to include more than one SLR scenario to encompass the range of possibilities that
could arise from different emissions scenarios. Only two of the studied papers chose to consider only one
possible sea level. One of these cases selected only the worst scenario to better identify and prepare for
low probability but plausible risks (2); the other chose to model only one scenario because the aim of the
study was not to produce forecasts for decision making but to demonstrate tools and show possible effects
to keep in mind in future studies (8). Han et al. thus acknowledge that their chosen sea level is not
representative of SLR forecasts (8).
The year in which each study chooses to evaluate its SLR projection also varies. Common years seem to
be 2050 and 2100 for their significance as turn of the century and its midpoint. Other chosen years seem
to be either evenly spaced midpoints or goals. Lu et al. cleverly chooses to evaluate the projection at 2060
to correspond with the target year of the long-range Florida Transportation Plan made in 2011 and used
by the local government (7).

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SLR Data Years Base SLR Additional Combinations
Study Source evaluated Scenarios flooding of scenarios Justification
Asadabadi et al.
(Nov 2017, Jun 2030, 2050, 5th, 50th, 95th 4 flooding Percentiles chosen to represent the wide
2017) Climate Central 2070 percentiles scenarios 36 range of possibilities
From the most systematic study for
New York City Manhattan; used by local government;
Panel on Climate 100yr and 500yr using upper percentile estimates to model
Yin et al. Change 2050, 2080 90th percentile floods 4 low probability extreme scenarios
Near future
(1998-2063),
Scripps Institute Mid-future 50th and 95th Show predictions for different emissions
Moftakhari et al. of Oceanography (2018-2083) percentiles daily tides 6 scenarios
daily high tide
(likely and high)
National likely range, and extreme high
Shilling et al. Research Council 2050, 2100 high range tide (likely only) 6 Represent a range of possible conditions
Low (Historic
rate), Middle
(upper end of
semi-empirical
projections),
high (upper end
Virginia Institute 2000, 2020, of projections
of Marine 2040, 2060, accounting for 3 flooding Highlight uncertainty and show the broad
Sadler et al. Sciences 2080, 2100 ice melt) scenarios 54 range of scenarios
Chose the higher of 2 models (nonlinear
projection based on historical rates vs.
projection including temperature increase
Federal Highway and local subsidence) to prepare for worst
Lu et al. Administration 2060 0.6 m 1 case scenario
Point of greatest change in impacts on
Han et al. NOAA 2030 4 ft 1 transportation and land use
Figure 1 – Table of which SLR projections were used, how they were evaluated, and why they were chosen
3.2 The Importance of Case Studies
SLR rise will not affect geographically different locations in the same way. It is important to account for
local factors such as tidal range, geography, elevation, and isostatic land movements. In particular, the
southeastern United States is undergoing subsidence, amplifying the effects of SLR (7), while the
northeastern United States is experiencing post-glacial rebound, offsetting the effects of SLR. As seen in
Figure 1, the studied literature obtained SLR projection data from a variety of sources, each with data
focusing on the area of study.
Case studies of small geographic areas are important additions to the literature as decision-making tools.
This is not only because SLR projections need to be customized to local trends, but also because
government entities making decisions only preside over limited districts.
Because case studies are unique to a region, it may be hard to draw specific comparisons between results.
No standard projection that can be used for all coastal areas exist. However, there are common
overarching study methodologies and patterns.

3.3 Study methodology


Although each study had different approaches to evaluating projections, all but one identified vulnerable
road sections by overlaying sea level maps onto infrastructure maps using geographic information
systems (GIS) software. Traffic data was added to estimate load of service. Additional flooding due to
rain, tides, or storm surge were added to the base sea level in five studies. The remaining study that did
not overlay flood maps onto infrastructure maps obtained only the length of road flooded from another
source that had used GIS to calculate the amount (5).
Three out of the eight studies explicitly stated that their models accounted for hydraulic connectivity
between oceans or rivers and the inundated regions. One study acknowledged that its model assumed that
all elevations under the modelled sea level would flood, even if the region was isolated from the ocean.
The study recognizes that although isolated low-lying regions may not flood with seawater, it may be
affected in a similar manner by rising water tables (6). All studies that included tidal range data or storm
surge data assumed that tidal ranges would not change from their current ranges and that storms would
stay approximately the same strength.

4. Sea Level Rise Impacts on Transportation Systems


4.1 Identified Vulnerabilities
The effects of SLR have both social and economic implications for transportation systems of the affected
region. The inundation of roads most directly affects the connectivity of transportation networks by
flooding routes or destinations, or by undermining roadbeds (2, 7, 8). Highways and bridges tend to be
especially vulnerable because of the load of service and the lack of alternate options (7). Flooded roads
create a reduction in travel because the destination is no longer desirable to travel to, or because the time
travelling increases to an unreasonable extent (1, 8). Lost trips in turn represent a lost economic
opportunity.
When an increase in travel time does not cause the loss of a trip, there are other impacts that road flooding
may have. Increased fuel consumption and increased traffic in alternate routes (3, 8) represent an

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economic loss in the efficiency of supply chains. The repair of roads that will experience more weathering
and erosion from a higher frequency of flooding also has a direct financial cost (1, 3).
Navigating around or through flooded regions also creates a longer emergency response time due to
reduction in overlap between service areas and the flooding of critical infrastructure such as police
stations and hospitals (2). Driving through flooded roads also increases risk to emergency personnel going
to rescue victims (1). These are matters of concern especially when longer response times mean lives lost.
Flooding also threatens massive change to public transit systems. Boston’s commuters will be impacted
because of the radial transit system (8) combined with the city center’s general vulnerability, being
located on the waterfront on top of reclaimed marshland. Under a 4 ft SLR scenario, Boston train
ridership will drop by 70-89% because of the relative inflexibility of the tracks, tunnels, and stations (8).
The economic loss from fewer train riders may be offset by an increase in bus riders. Bus stations and
routes can be more easily changed and thus are more resilient than train stations and train track (8).
However, there would be an economic cost associated with changing the transportation infrastructure
from rail to road (1).
SLR currently exacerbates coastal flooding due to storm surge, but as global sea levels rise, flooding is
only set to increase. In the near future, Marin County, California could have 1.5 to 2.5 times more road
flooding in amount of road flooded and duration of flooding (5).

5. Resilience
5.1 Mitigation and Adaptation
Resilience is the ability to return to normal after a disturbance. There are two aspects of resilience against
a changing sea level. The first is mitigation, preventative movements taken to lessen the effects of
disruption when it hits. The second is adaptation, reactive movements taken after a disruption to restore
the system to normal.
Global carbon emission reductions may be considered a mitigative action, because SLR is driven by
warming. If there is less human induced warming, there will be a smaller change in sea levels. This
possibility is incorporated into SLR studies as the lower the range of SLR projections (see section 2.1).
However, even with drastic global carbon emission reductions, some sea level change is inevitable,
because of the greenhouse gasses accumulated in the atmosphere from decades prior. Thus, the impacts of
SLR on transportation systems can only partially be prevented by emissions reductions, and action must
include ways to lessen the impacts of the inevitable transgression of seawater.
Building sea walls (1, 3), elevating roads (1) and bridges, and increasing sea water pumps and drainage
(1, 3) may help transportation systems become more resilient. In the event of inundation, the widening of
alternate routes to increase capacity (4) and having more overlap between service areas of rescue
operations (2) will also help to decrease the impact of flooding.
Even disasters that have had their impacts lessened may still cause significant damage. In this case,
adaptive action would take place after damage has occurred to rebuild and strengthen defenses. Some
funds, therefore, should be set aside for emergency relief and rebuilding.
In most cases, the results of mitigative and adaptive actions are the same. The difference lies in the
proactiveness of the governing body to prepare for the effects of SLR.

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5.2 Transportation Planning with Limited Resources
In general, the cost of being prepared (cost of investment, damage and lost economic opportunity, and
repair) is much less than the cost of making no investments (cost of damage and lost economic
opportunity) (1, 3). Asadabadi et al. found that in the Washington DC area, compared to doing nothing,
investing in seawalls, raised roads, and drainage systems could save $302 billion in lost trips and travel
time costs over a period of 60 years (3). However, mitigation suffers from the same problems as SLR
projections themselves: there is much uncertainty of how much protection will be needed due to the wide
range of possible future sea levels.
Governing bodies have limited resources to spend on preparing for and adapting to SLR. Decision makers
must make efficient choices in where to put flood defenses. Case studies aim to help decision makers
prioritize where they invest by identifying critical sections of high traffic roads and bridges that are
vulnerable to inundation (1, 3, 4, 7, 8). (See section 2.2)
Once decision makers have decided on which sections of road are most critical to the transportation
system, they must decide how much of available funds if any should be used to prepare for SLR and how
much should be set aside for disaster relief and rebuilding. Asadabadi et al. propose a recursive noisy
genetic algorithm to find the optimal investment amounts for three SLR scenarios (1, 3).
Once the invested structures are constructed, they are relatively inflexible. Raising the roadway by six
inches will not reduce impacts by much if the sea rises more than six inches. Asadabadi et al. address this
problem and found that investing in several structures that hedged against three possible sea levels had a
higher return on investment than investing solely for the 50th percentile SLR scenario only to have the low
or high possibility realized (1). Asadabadi et al. stress the importance of accurate predictions to better
allocate resources where they are needed (1).

5.3 Stakeholder Relations


A stakeholder is defined as any person who affects or will be affected by a decision. Shilling et al. point
out that community opinion is rarely considered in transportation planning (4). As those who will be
using the roads as well as paying for its construction, protection, and repair, community members are
important stakeholders in transportation system planning, and their opinions can affect the success of a
project. In their study of SLR planning for California State Route 37, which cuts across a salt marsh,
Shilling et al. find that a much higher percentage of community members compared to stakeholder
process members would prefer the existing structure remaining vulnerable if the project were funded
using tolls (4). Stakeholders may thus influence the allocation of funds between mitigative and adaptive
measures if the optimal combination does not match the community opinion. Knowing stakeholder
opinion can help decision makers avoid losing revenue and reputation. The social credibility and track
record may also influence the implementation of future projects.
Effects to the environment are not always considered in transportation planning, but the environment
should be considered in planning with the same weight as a stakeholder, especially if environmental
quality is important to stakeholders. Community members were surprisingly more supportive of a
causeway that would abandon the lower portion of the road than they were for armoring the existing road
(4). Regulatory agencies, also stakeholders in this project, remarked that such a causeway might also be
beneficial to the salt marsh by reconnecting tidal flows to areas currently cut off by the road (4).

6. Context

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6.1 The Near Future
The urgency of addressing problems due to SLR may sometimes be lost within bureaucracy (4) and vague
commitments. SLR is not a problem to be solved later in the vague distant future. Although 2050 and
2100 may seem a long way ahead, it is within a human lifetime. The author would be 52 in 2050 and 102
in 2100. We are already seeing hints of the devastation SLR can bring to our transportation systems in
extreme storm surges that have coincided with the high tide. Grayson, the bomb cyclone in January 2018
caused the highest storm surge in Boston history with 4.88 ft above the mean higher high water levels,
breaking the record of the Blizzard of ’78. The sun and moon literally aligned in the worst possible
combination, with the storm hitting the coast at perihelion spring high tides (9). The flooding nearly
incapacitated the coast of Massachusetts, as crews worked frantically through the night to clear waist-high
level water from the streets before the morning freeze (10). The frequency of such extreme storm surge
events will only increase with rising sea levels and warming temperatures (1, 2, 5).

Summary Points
• Sea level rise is a complex issue with many detrimental effects to the transportation system.
Most effects on the transportation system stem from the flooding of roads.

• There is some amount of uncertainty associated with predicting the future in terms of sea
level rise. Therefore, it is important to consider a range of possibilities and possibly hedge
against the full range of effects.

• Case studies are important tools for decision-makers because a case study is specific to an
area and can identify key road segments in a managed area that are vulnerable to sea level
rise.

• To lessen the impacts of sea level rise on transportation, it will be necessary to take mitigative
action and make preparations for a higher sea level while still keeping a reserve of funds for
emergency relief and rebuilding.

• Both stakeholder opinion and effects on the environment should be included in decision
making for addressing sea level rise’s impacts on transportation systems.

• A premonition of the effects of sea level rise can be seen in the devastation that occurs in
extreme storm surges. If such damage is to be avoided, urgent action is needed.

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Disclosure
The author is aware that there may be bias in this review from selection of articles, time restriction of the
assignment, and language bias.

Acknowledgements
I would like to thank my classmates and instructor Cecelia Musselman for their comments during the in-
class review. I would also like to thank Jennifer Garland and John wise for their peer reviews, and my
mother, younger sister, and Christopher Grasso and Phil Anderson from the Global Resilience Institute
for reading my review and providing suggestions.

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