Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No.

9, November, 545–556

30-year creep and shrinkage of concrete

J. J. Brooks*

University of Leeds

Experimental results of creep, shrinkage, swelling, modulus of elasticity and strength of 18 types of concrete after
30 years are presented. While the compressive strength of dry-stored concrete was greater than that of wet-stored
concrete, the modulus of elasticity behaved in the opposite way, suggesting that some of the water within the
concrete is capable of withstanding significant load. Shrinkage ranged from 280 to 1460 3 10
6 and swelling
varied from 25 to 35% of shrinkage. The accuracy of five current design methods of estimating 30-year deformation
is compared. Most methods fail to recognise the influence of strength of concrete and type of aggregate on creep
coefficient, which ranged from 1.2 to 9.2.

Introduction
This paper follows earlier publications1–3 and pre-
sents the final results of a creep and shrinkage test
programme that was started in 1972. The previous pub-
lications demonstrated the lack of accuracy when esti-
mating long-term creep and shrinkage of concrete,
particularly when using methods of prediction given in
design documents.4–8 The methods were assessed using
experimental results that had been gathered over a
period of ten years. The results were extrapolated to
obtain 30-year values and, generally, no method was
found to be more accurate than any other method.3 For
example, errors ranged from 15 to 60% for total strain
(elastic strain + creep + shrinkage) depending on the
type of concrete and storage condition. When a particu-
lar deformation, type of concrete or storage condition
was considered, again, no method was consistently bet-
ter or worse. Predictions did, however, improve when a
known (measured) modulus of elasticity was used and
was even better (< 20%) when a known short-term
creep or shrinkage value was used, for example of 28
days’ duration.
Since the time of the last publication3 in 1984,
new prediction methods have been published
(CEB,9,10 Gardner11 ) and existing methods modified
(Bazant and Baweja12 ), or reissued (ACI 13 ). The Con-
crete Society method8 has been adopted by BS
8110.14 The current paper compares predictions
* School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT.
(MCR 41295) Paper received 18 June 2004; last revised 1 December
2004; accepted 13 May 2005
yielded by those methods with the measured 15-year
and 30-year final deformations obtained from the
tests. Other properties reported are strength, modulus
of elasticity and creep recovery.
Experimental details
Full details of the concrete mixes used and the meth-
od of strain measurement were given in a previous
paper1 and only a summary is given here. The original
18 different types of concrete were made using two
types of two normal weight coarse aggregates, each
having five levels of water/cement ratio, and two types
of lightweight coarse aggregates each having four lev-
els of water/cement ratio. Creep and shrinkage were
determined on specimens stored in water and stored in
air from the age of loading (14 days). The temperature
variation of the storage conditions throughout the 30-
year period of testing is shown in Fig. 1. The water
temperature, which was uncontrolled, had an average
value of 21.58C. For the air storage, air conditioning
equipment was used to control the temperature and
relative humidity, the average values being 20.68C and
64.6%, respectively. After five years the air condition-
ing began to malfunction and was eventually replaced
after ten years. Apart from the occasional replacement
of a strain gauge point, the only other maintenance
involved was the replacement of the water-stored creep
test rigs. The original test rigs were made from mild
steel coated with corrosion-resisting paint but, after
showing signs of significant corrosion after eight years,
they were replaced by stainless steel test rigs.
After 15 years under load, one of the normal-weight
545

0024-9831 # 2005 Thomas Telford Ltd

Brooks
100

90
Average air relative humidity = 64·6 (5·8) %
80
Temperature: °C and relative humidity: %

70

60

50

40 Average water temperature = 21·5 (1·7) °C

30

20

10 Average air temperature = 20·6 (1·6) °C

0
0 0·5 1 1·5 2 2·5 3 3·5 4 4·5
Log time: days

Fig. 1 Temperature and relative humidity variation of storage environments throughout the preiod of testing; numbers in
parenthesis are standard deviations

Results and discussion

concretes and one of the lightweight concretes were
unloaded in order to determine the creep recovery over Figures 2–9 give the experimental results of creep,
the next 15 years. The remaining concrete specimens shrinkage and swelling of concrete stored under dry
were unloaded after 30 years and creep recovery was and wet conditions. Creep is that resulting from a
measured for six months. At the end of test programme, sustained stress equal to 0.3 of the 14-day creep cylin-
all specimens were crushed to failure to determine the der strength as given in Table 5. Values of specific
compressive strength. creep (creep per unit of stress) are given in Tables 1–4,

3000

Stored dry Stored wet

2500 w/c 5 0·80 w/c 5 0·80

w/c 5 0·67 w/c 5 0·67

w/c 5 0·58 w/c 5 0·58

2000
w/c 5 0·54 w/c 5 0·54

w/c 5 0·50 w/c 5 0·50

Creep: 1026

1500

1000

500

0
0 0·5 1 1·5 2 2·5 3 3·5 4 4·5
Log time since loading: days

Fig. 2 Creep of concrete made with North Notts. coarse aggregate stored under dry and wet conditions
546 Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9
 30-year creep and shrinkage of concrete
1200

Stored dry Stored wet

1000
w/c 5 0·80 w/c 5 0·80
w/c 5 0·67 w/c 5 0·67
800 w/c 5 0·58 w/c 5 0·58
w/c 5 0·54 w/c 5 0·54

600 w/c 5 0·50 w/c 5 0·50

Shrinkage: 1026

400

200

2200

2400
0 0·5 1 1·5 2 2·5 3 3·5 4 4·5
Log time: days

Fig. 3 Shrinkage and swelling of concrete made with North Notts. coarse aggregate stored under dry and wet conditions

2000

1800 Stored dry Stored wet

w/c 5 0·80 w/c 5 0·80

1600
w/c 5 0·67 w/c 5 0·67

1400 w/c 5 0·56 w/c 5 0·56

w/c 5 0·48 w/c 5 0·48
1200
w/c 5 0·40 w/c 5 0·40
Creep: 1026

1000

800

600

400

200

0
0 0·5 1 1·5 2 2·5 3 3·5 4 4·5
Log time since loading: days

Fig. 4 Creep of concrete made with Stourton coarse aggregate stored under dry and wet conditions

together with shrinkage and swelling after various times
after loading or exposure to drying. Hand-smoothed
values of Figs 2–9 were used to derive the data given
in Tables 1–4. In the cases of Stourton and Aglite
concretes, which were unloaded after 15 years, the 30-
year creep values of Tables 1 and 2 were obtained by
extrapolation from the strain–log time curves of Figs 4
and 6.
Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9
As well as the strength and secant modulus of elasti-
city at the age of loading, Table 5 gives the 30-year
strength and the 15- or 30-year secant modulus of
elasticity of the specimens used for the creep, shrinkage
and swelling measurements at the end of testing. The
secant modulus was calculated from the strains re-
corded on application and removal of the load from the
creep specimens.
547
Brooks
1600
Stored dry Stored wet
1400
w/c 5 0·80 w/c 5 0·80
w/c 5 0·67 w/c 5 0·67
1200
w/c 5 0·56 w/c 5 0·56
1000 w/c 5 0·48 w/c 5 0·48
w/c 5 0·40 w/c 5 0·40
800
Shrinkage: 1026

600

400

200

2200

2400

2600
0 0·5 1 1·5 2 2·5 3 3·5 4 4·5
Log time: days

Fig. 5 Shrinkage and swelling of concrete made with Stourton coarse aggregate stored under dry and wet conditions

1200
Stored dry Stored wet

w/c 5 0·76 w/c 5 0·76

1000
w/c 5 0·62 w/c 5 0·62

w/c 5 0·55 w/c 5 0·55

800
w/c 5 0·45 w/c 5 0·45
Creep: 1026

600

400

200

0
0 0·5 1 1·5 2 2·5 3 3·5 4 4·5
Log time since loading: days

Fig. 6 Creep and concrete made with Aglite coarse aggregate stored under wet and dry conditions

Strength and modulus of elasticity
Table 5 shows that, in most cases, the strength of
dry-stored specimens exceeded that of wet-stored speci-
mens by approximately 30%, with just three out of 34
values proving to be the exception. The overall mean
and standard deviation of the ratio of dry-stored to wet-
stored specimen strength was 1.31  0.23. The ratio
was slightly greater for the specimens previously sub-
548
jected to load than for the control (shrinkage/swelling)
specimens. For example, the average and standard de-
viation ratio of dry-stored to wet-stored strength was
1.39  0.20 for the previously loaded specimens com-
pared with that of 1.22  0.24 for the control speci-
mens. Comparing the loaded and control specimen
strengths suggests that the sustained load on dry-stored
specimens appeared to increase strength by 14%,
Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9
 30-year creep and shrinkage of concrete
800
Stored dry Stored wet

600
w/c 5 0·76 w/c 5 0·76
w/c 5 0·62 w/c 5 0·62
400 w/c 5 0·55 w/c 5 0·55
w/c 5 0·45 w/c 5 0·45
200
Shrinkage: 1026

2200

2400

2600

2800
0 0·5 1 1·5 2 2·5 3 3·5 4 4·5
Log time: days

Fig. 7 Shrinkage and swelling of concrete made with Aglite coarse aggregate stored under dry and wet conditions

1800

1600
Stored dry Stored wet

w/c 5 0·86 w/c 5 0·86

1400
w/c 5 0·75 w/c 5 0·75

1200 w/c 5 0·63 w/c 5 0·63

w/c 5 0·55 w/c 5 0·55
Creep: 1026

1000

800

600

400

200

0
0 0·5 1 1·5 2 2·5 3 3·5 4 4·5
Log time since loading: days

Fig. 8 Creep of concrete made with Lytag coarse aggregate stored under dry and wet conditions

whereas there was no appreciable effect of sustained
load on the wet-stored specimens.
The opposite trend occurred for modulus of elasticity
for wet- and dry-stored specimens. Analysis of data in
Table 5 indicates that the secant modulus of elasticity
obtained from unloading of the creep specimens was
generally 25% greater for the wet-stored specimens, the
exception to this trend occurring in three out of 18
values. The average of the ratio of wet-stored to dry-
Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9
stored modulus was 1.25  0.28. Such contrasting be-
haviour of dry-stored specimens having a greater
strength than continuously wet-stored specimens, while
the elastic modulus varies in the opposite sense, has
been reported previously.15,16
Accepting the fact that wet concrete has a higher
elastic modulus than dry concrete implies that some
of the water is capable of supporting significant
load, which is an important assumption of a recently
549
Brooks
1400

1200 Stored dry Stored wet

w/c 5 0·86 w/c 5 0·86

1000
w/c 5 0·75 w/c 5 0·75

800 w/c 5 0·63 w/c 5 0·63

w/c 5 0·55 w/c 5 0·55
600
Shrinkage: 1026

400

200

2200

2400

2600
0 0·5 1 1·5 2 2·5 3 3·5 4 4·5
Log time: days

Fig. 9 Shrinkage and swelling of concrete made with Lytag coarse aggregate stored under dry and wet conditions

Table 1. Specific creep of wet-stored concrete

Coarse aggregate Water/ Specific creep 3 10
6 per MPa after time
(mix proportions cement
by mass) ratio 1 3 7 14 28 100 1 3 10 30
day days days days days days year years years years
North Notts. 0.80 8.0 23.9 37.5 51.2 62.6 81.2 109.2 136.5 238.9 345.8
N 0.67 8.5 18.7 25.5 32.3 41.7 54.4 68.0 81.6 124.1 185.4
(1:1.71:3.04) 0.58 8.6 13.5 18.3 22.7 26.4 35.6 45.8 59.9 88.5 123.0
0.54 5.1 7.6 12.7 16.3 20.3 28.5 38.1 49.8 68.1 91.5
0.50 6.3 10.4 14.0 16.8 19.9 26.3 33.5 41.7 52.1 67.0
Stourton 0.80 14.9 27.5 37.8 48.1 59.5 83.6 114.5 150.0 208.3 275.6
N 0.67 23.8 34.5 44.3 54.2 63.2 80.5 103.4 133.0 172.4 217.9
(1:1.71:3.04) 0.56 13.2 20.5 27.7 34.9 43.3 56.6 72.2 87.8 111.9 143.2
0.48 11.1 14.5 19.0 24.2 30.1 41.2 53.5 64.7 80.8 104.3
0.40 11.4 16.8 22.3 27.3 32.8 42.8 51.9 59.2 67.4 76.4
Aglite 0.76 12.9 18.4 23.9 28.5 34.0 45.0 65.2 91.8 130.4 169.0
SL 0.62 8.9 14.0 19.0 23.5 28.6 39.4 52.1 64.8 84.4 102.9
(1:1.71:1.52) 0.55 10.8 14.2 17.5 20.9 25.0 31.7 41.8 52.0 72.2 93.5
0.45 2.8 7.1 9.9 13.5 17.0 24.8 34.0 44.7 63.8 80.4
Lytag 0.86 4.7 11.4 19.4 27.5 36.1 53.2 62.7 87.4 148.1 207.0
SL 0.75 14.2 19.9 24.7 29.3 33.5 43.1 53.4 57.3 58.6 74.4
(1:1.71:1.52) 0.63 8.8 13.2 17.9 22.3 27.6 37.0 46.9 51.9 53.5 65.7
0.55 4.8 7.5 11.2 14.4 18.2 25.6 32.9 37.4 49.4 62.2
N ¼ normal-weight aggregate concrete; SL ¼ semi-lightweight aggregate concrete.
30-year underlined values are extrapolated results.

proposed theory of drying creep.17 Here, hardened ce-
ment paste gel water is assumed to be load bearing
along with that of the solid gel; removal of gel water
by drying causes stress to be transferred to the solid gel
thus increasing its deformation. It is assumed that the
gel water is held firmly within the calcium silicate
hydrates (CSH), or on the surface of the CSH, by
strong physical and chemical bonds, whereas free water
in the larger capillaries can more easily escape and
550
effectively cannot support much load as it has a low
bulk modulus of about 2 GPa (compared with about 50
GPa for the solid gel).
Indirect evidence supporting the assumption of the
gel water having a load-bearing property can be found
in the findings of previous researchers. Verbeck and
Helmuth’s18 results (Fig. 10) clearly show that, for a
range of capillary porosities, wet pastes had a much
higher modulus than pastes dried to a relative humidity
Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9
 30-year creep and shrinkage of concrete

Table 2. Specific creep of dry-stored concrete

Coarse aggregate Water/ Specific creep 3 10
6 per MPa after time
(mix proportions cement
by mass) ratio 1 3 7 14 28 100 1 3 10 30
day days days days days days year years years years
North Notts. 0.80 18.2 41.0 73.9 119.5 199.1 364.0 432.3 477.8 526.7 568.8
(1:1.71:3.04) 0.67 8.5 20.4 38.3 59.5 97.8 175.2 214.3 238.1 264.5 293.4
0.58 10.8 20.5 34.0 50.7 80.9 137.0 167.2 181.2 196.9 216.8
0.54 14.2 21.8 31.5 44.7 65.0 109.8 138.2 149.4 165.1 180.4
0.50 9.1 14.0 20.4 29.4 41.2 67.9 85.1 93.3 102.8 111.4
Stourton 0.80 34.3 57.2 80.1 113.3 169.4 267.9 314.8 356.0 412.1 466.9
N 0.67 30.4 41.1 57.5 78.8 112.5 165.8 195.4 218.4 246.3 269.3
(1:1.71:3.04) 0.56 21.7 29.5 42.1 59.0 78.2 105.3 123.9 137.8 152.8 165.5
0.48 13.6 22.1 29.2 37.7 46.3 62.4 74.7 82.5 93.6 103.1
0.40 13.7 20.9 27.8 35.5 42.8 51.2 62.4 68.8 76.0 82.9
Aglite 0.76 2.8 11.6 22.0 33.1 53.3 115.7 146.9 157.9 185.5 209.4
SL 0.62 10.2 17.1 25.4 33.0 44.4 73.7 97.8 109.8 124.1 137.1
(1:1.71:1.52) 0.55 6.7 14.8 21.6 29.8 39.1 57.4 75.6 85.0 99.2 114.7
0.45 7.1 10.6 14.9 19.1 24.8 36.9 49.6 56.7 70.9 85.1
Lytag 0.86 7.6 22.8 31.9 65.5 104.5 184.2 208.9 254.5 285.8 305.8
SL 0.75 9.7 19.3 29.0 46.3 68.2 124.2 153.2 167.3 193.1 207.2
(1:1.71:1.52) 0.63 8.8 16.4 25.4 38.6 59.6 96.0 114.8 128.6 147.4 156.7
0.55 9.4 15.0 21.4 28.5 36.0 57.4 68.1 81.4 91.9 100.4
N ¼ normal-weight aggregate concrete; SL ¼ semi-lightweight aggregate concrete.
30-year underlined values are extrapolated results.

Table 3. Swelling of wet-stored concrete

Coarse aggregate Water/ Swelling 3 10
6 after time
(mix proportions cement
by mass) ratio 1 3 7 14 28 100 1 3 10 30
day days days days days days year years years years
North Notts. 0.80 5 14 22 28 33 43 65 112 190 295
N 0.67 48 50 52 55 59 68 85 112 170 250
(1:1.71:3.04) 0.58 2 3 6 9 12 23 41 68 118 203
0.54 15 22 27 32 36 48 68 102 160 247
0.50 4 9 15 22 28 42 60 85 125 180
Stourton 0.80 8 9 10 12 19 30 65 115 210 320
N 0.67 24 25 28 29 32 51 85 135 230 325
(1:1.71:3.04) 0.56 8 12 19 26 35 55 84 119 190 260
0.48 5 6 12 17 25 40 72 105 162 230
0.40 18 21 25 33 44 69 100 132 185 240
Aglite 0.76 5 10 16 23 30 55 127 230 370 620
SL 0.62 10 18 28 37 45 80 155 250 380 560
(1:1.71:1.52) 0.55 2 3 5 10 15 45 120 210 335 520
0.45 0 5 6 12 25 65 140 230 360 530
Lytag 0.86
30
27
23
15
3 26 72 120 195 330
SL 0.75 2 2 3 7 17 45 90 135 205 325
(1:1.71:1.52) 0.63 7 10 15 20 33 60 100 143 205 320
0.55 0 2 8 20 39 73 118 165 227 307
N ¼ normal-weight aggregate concrete; SL ¼ semi-lightweight aggregate concrete.

of 47%. Re-wetting also caused an increase in modulus,
but a not complete recovery to that of the continuously
saturated curve. The intercept for the wet curve at a
capillary porosity, Pc ¼ 0 corresponds to the bulk mod-
ulus of free water ¼ 2 GPa.
Parrott’s19 explanation of the lower modulus for dry
cement paste was a dehydration of the calcium silicate
hydrate rather than removal of gel water since the latter
would not be removed until the relative humidity (RH)
Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9
was well below 50% RH. Also, in larger capillaries, it
could be expected that reversible behaviour would oc-
cur; Fig. 10 shows this is not the case.
In the same paper,19 Parrott’s own results demon-
strated an increase in elastic strain of cement paste as
the moisture content decreased. There was a large in-
crease in compliance (approximately equal to the strain
per unit stress) with drying, indicating that the modulus
was less.
551
Brooks

Table 4. Shrinkage of dry-stored concrete

Coarse aggregate Water/ Shrinkage 3 10
6 after time
(mix proportions cement
by mass) ratio 1 day 3 days 7 days 14 days 28 days 100 days 1 year 3 years 10 years 30 years

North Notts. 0.80 80 150 251 425 640 845 905 930 975 1015
N 0.67 110 180 280 425 600 820 880 895 925 1010
(1:1.71:3.04) 0.58 140 225 330 470 620 820 885 900 915 975
0.54 75 165 265 365 486 665 705 715 725 775
0.50 75 165 265 380 490 665 715 720 725 730
Stourton 0.80 180 300 530 820 1030 1225 1300 1340 1430 1460
N 0.67 90 250 450 670 900 1125 1210 1220 1320 1400
(1:1.71:3.04) 0.56 85 195 350 525 720 955 1010 1025 1055 1120
0.48 85 160 275 440 615 820 860 870 875 880
0.40 50 120 200 340 500 685 720 735 740 740
Aglite 0.76 40 80 135 260 410 560 560 525 500 465
(1:1.71:1.52) 0.62 45 70 105 190 350 580 600 565 520 480
0.55 20 45 70 120 220 505 555 500 430 370
0.45 12 38 65 110 190 445 510 442 370 280
Lytag 0.86 70 140 290 330 800 1030 1090 1140 1240 1265
SL 0.75 50 100 175 330 570 780 825 870 935 975
(1:1.71:1.52) 0.63 50 75 135 260 530 730 770 820 890 935
0.55 30 55 90 150 265 590 630 640 655 660
N ¼ normal-weight aggregate concrete; SL ¼ semi-lightweight aggregate concrete.
30-year underlined value is an extrapolated result due to a broken specimen.

Table 5. Strength and secant modulus of elasticity

Type of coarse Water/cement 14-day strength: 14-day loading 30-year strength: MPa 15- or 30-year
aggregate ratio MPa elastic unloading elastic
modulus: GPa Wet Dry modulus: GPa
L C L C Wet (L) Dry (L)
North Notts. 0.80 14.7 16.2 21.5 20.2 30.8 25.3 20.9 18.9
0.67 19.6 20.9 36.2 26.9 59.3 51.9 29.1 31.1
0.58 30.9 25.6 45.4 36.7 75.6 62.7 40.8 37.8
0.54 32.8 28.1 50.8 46.6 78.6 64.5 52.1 38.1
0.50 36.8 29.8 61.6 50.6 78.4 53.3 54.4 43.8
Stourton* 0.80 14.6 9.6 24.6 24.3 31.4 25.7 23.0 17.4
0.67 20.3 13.5 32.3 34.3 50.7 41.3 27.8 24.2
0.56 27.7 14.9 42.4 42.0 53.9 50.0 33.4 26.1
0.48 29.9 17.4 46.4 51.3 51.5 – 39.9 28.4
0.40 36.6 17.9 56.8 55.4 55.2 54.2 57.9 31.1
Aglite* 0.67 18.2 13.6 23.0 24.8 31.1 – 12.9 16.4
0.62 26.3 16.3 28.5 32.3 36.4 30.2 17.6 14.7
0.55 24.7 18.6 29.4 28.8 36.6 34.5 19.3 15.9
0.45 23.5 18.6 22.4 25.3 36.0 35.5 21.1 18.5
Lytag 0.86 17.6 11.7 27.0 35.8 39.2 41.1 12.8 16.7
0.75 25.9 17.7 31.2 41.0 48.4 45.1 34.8 20.4
0.63 30.2 18.9 41.3 50.8 62.4 57.1 33.0 24.2
0.55 31.2 23.0 50.0 44.0 60.1 61.6 34.5 21.9
* ¼ creep specimens unloaded after 15 years. After 30 years, dry-stored specimens immersed in water for nine months.
L ¼ average of two creep specimens previously under load; C ¼ control shrinkage or swelling specimen.
Underlined moduli from unloading creep specimens at the age of 15 years.

Sereda et al.20 also showed that the elastic modulus
of cement paste was significantly greater at saturation
than when at a 0% after the first cycle of drying. On
adsorption, the modulus remained unchanged up to a
relative humidity of 50% and then increased, but not to
the original value at saturation.
Hobbs21 suggests that water in cement paste takes
the form of three types:
552
(a) capillary water that is not under the influence of
any solid surface
(b) adsorbed surface water under the influence of one
solid surface: this can be treated as a liquid of high
viscosity and is partly load bearing
(c) water that is under the influence of two solid
surfaces or interlayer water having only a few
molecules in thickness: this water does not behave
Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9
 30-year creep and shrinkage of concrete
30
The deviation coefficient (D, %) expresses whether the
Wet
modulus–strength equation generally overestimates (+)
25 Rewetted or underestimates (
) the modulus:
Dried at 47%RH
Bulk modulus: GPa

20
X
15
ð p
mÞ
D¼ 3 100 (2)
mn
10

where p ¼ predicted value, m ¼ measured value, m ¼

5
average measured value and n ¼ number of observa-
0
tions.
0 0·2 0·4 0·6 0·8 1 The original test scope of the test programme in-
(1 2 Pc)3 cluded quite high water/cement ratios for each type of
Fig. 10 Effect of drying on bulk modulus of cement paste of
concrete, which may now be regarded as being outside
different porosity, Pc 18 the practical range of mixes. Consequently, it was
thought pertinent to repeat the analysis for mixes hav-
ing water/cement ratios less than 0.76 (Table 7).
Since two methods (CEB9 and Gardner and Lockman
like a liquid and is best considered as part of the (GL)11 ) are only really appropriate for normal-weight
solid structure. aggregate concrete, the assessment of accuracy in Ta-
bles 6 and 7 is presented separately for normal-weight
With regard to the practical prediction of the modulus aggregate concrete and semi-lightweight aggregate con-
of elasticity, Table 6 shows values estimated by meth- crete. Values for the B3 method are not listed as, unlike
ods given in design documents.9,11–14 All methods use the other methods, it does not define the starting point
compressive strength as the basis for prediction, the for creep from the elastic strain given by the usual
ACI 13 and BS14 methods including a term to allow for secant modulus of elasticity. Table 6 shows that all
density. Using the experimental results, each method is methods overestimate the modulus (+D), the best esti-
assessed by an error coefficient and a deviation coeffi- mates, as indicated by lowest values of both M (31 to
cient. The error coefficient (M, %) expresses the ‘good- 34%) and D (23 to 27%), are given by the BS and ACI
ness of fit’ and is given by methods. Ignoring the high water/cement ratios mixes
improves the accuracy slightly (Table 7). For normal-
sX
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
weight aggregate concrete only, the high level of D
1 ( p
m)2
M¼ 3 100 (1) indicates that CEB and GL methods clearly overesti-
m n mate modulus.

Table 6. Accuracy of methods for predicting deformations of concrete using strength and mix composition
Property Mix Error coefficient, M, % and deviation coefficient, D, %
type
9
CEB GL 11 B3 12 ACI 13 BS 14
M D M D M D M D M D
Elastic N 55 +43 39 +31 – – 34 +27 31 +23
modulus SL – – – – – – 13 0 22
14
Wet-stored N 77 –64 79 –62 – – 80 –64 70
48
creep SL – – – – – – 46 –20 57 +31
Dry-stored N 74 –55 74 –50 – – 88 –68 78
52
creep SL – – – – – – 51 –30 48 +16
Wet-stored N 68 –39 66 –57 62 –49 67 –55 59
44
compliance SL – – – – 41 –27 33 –13 39 +21
Dry-stored N 67 –52 65 –65 51 –34 77 –61 68
47
compliance SL – – – – 28 –7 41 –23 42 +15
Shrinkage N 33 –28 17 –4 32 –23 55 –54 63
59
SL – – – – 37 +31 47 –4 49
34
Swelling N 38 –36 16 –13 28 –16 – – 18
8
SL – – – – 60 –44 – – 55
41
Total wet- N 62 –58 62 –55 57 –50 46 –40 52
42
stored strain SL – – – – 49 –11 62 +45 92 +68
Total dry- N 46 –41 33 –26 39 –27 58 –54 52
46
stored strain SL – – – – 20 +6 37 –16 42 0

Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9 553

Brooks

Table 7. Accuracy of methods for predicting deformations of concrete using strength and mix composition for water/cement
ratios less than 0.76
Property Mix Error coefficient, M, % and deviation coefficient, D, %
type
9
CEB GL 11 B3 12 ACI 13 BS 14
M D M D M D M D M D
Elastic N 50 +36 35 +27 – – 32 +24 26 +15
modulus SL – – – – – – 10
3 19
13
Wet-stored N 67
59 64
54 – – 67
57 51
35
creep SL – – – – – – 12 +2 80 +77
Dry-stored N 56
46 50
35 – – 70
59 52
36
creep SL – – – – – – 40
18 58 +39
Wet-stored N 59
52 53
42 49 –42 55
48 42
33
compliance SL – – – – 17
14 9 +3 48 +47
Dry-stored N 51
43 43
28 31
22 59
54 42
32
compliance SL – – – – 26 +3 31
12 49 +35
Shrinkage N 32
26 16
2 36
31 51
46 63
60
SL – – – – 34 +27 43 +6 45
31
Swelling N 38
36 19
20 32
25 – – 21
10
SL – – – – 61 –50 – – 55
43
Total wet- N 57
54 53
48 47
42 39
35 40
32
stored strain SL – – – – 25 +11 74 +71 112 +107
Total dry- N 40
37 25 20 39
24 52
48 44
39
stored strain SL – – – – 22 +9 32
7 34 +16

Shrinkage and swelling Figs 3, 5, 7 and 9 as well as Table 5. Unlike shrinkage,

Figures 3, 5, 7 and 9 together with Table 4 show the
drying shrinkage of concrete stored from the age of 14
days in average conditions of 64.6% relative humidity
and temperature of 20.68C. For the normal-weight con-
crete, the 30-year range of drying shrinkage was
730
1015 3 10
6 (North Notts.) and 740
1460 3
10
6 (Stourton). In the case of the semi-lightweight
concrete, a slightly lower range of shrinkage occurred
for the Lytag aggregate concrete (660
1265 3 10
6 )
and, unexpectedly, the Aglite aggregate concrete exhib-
ited a reversal in the shrinkage–time characteristic after
approximately one year (see Fig. 7) so that after 30
years there was a smaller range of drying shrinkage
(280
465 3 10
6 ). Both Aglite and Lytag are artificial
lightweight aggregates, Lytag being produced from fly
ash and Aglite being an expanded clay type that, ac-
cording to this investigation, appears to be prone to
induce swelling of concrete in the long term.
The accuracy of estimating shrinkage by the various
methods is compared in Tables 6 and 7 in terms of the
error coefficient (equation (1)) and deviation coeffi-
cient (equation (2)). For the normal-weight aggregate
concrete, the best is the GL method, which only slightly
underestimates with an error coefficient of 17%. For
the lightweight aggregate mixes, the B3 method is the
best with an overestimate of shrinkage and an error
coefficient of 37%. When the mixes with high water/
cement ratios are ignored the predictions generally im-
prove (see Table 7).
The swelling of specimens continuously stored in
water at an average temperature of 21.58C is shown in
554
which only increased slightly over the last ten years,
swelling was still increasing appreciably after 30 years.
This occurred mostly for the Aglite aggregate concrete,
which exhibited final values of swelling similar to
those of shrinkage. For the other types of concrete,
swelling ranged from 25 to 35% of shrinkage after 30
years.
Generally, the measured swelling was greater than
that anticipated from the methods of prediction, as
indicated by the negative values of D in Table 6. For
normal-weight concrete, the GL and BS methods were
the most accurate with error coefficients between 16
and 18% and, of the two methods applicable to light-
weight concretes, the BS method was the best although
not particularly accurate. As for shrinkage, without the
high water/cement ratio results, the accuracy improved
slightly (Table 7).
Creep
Figures 2, 4, 6 and 8 show that, whereas the rate of
long-term creep of dry-stored concrete became steady
or reduced with time, the rate of creep of wet-stored
concrete started to increase after approximately ten
years and so increased the ratio of wet-stored creep to
dry-stored creep. That behaviour corresponded with
similar changes in rates of shrinkage and swelling,
suggesting an interaction between creep and moisture
movement strain. An implication is that the long-term
creep of wet-stored concrete may not be the same as
basic creep of sealed or mass concrete where there is
strictly no moisture exchange with the environment.
Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9
 30-year creep and shrinkage of concrete

10
Table 6 shows that all the methods underestimate North Notts. wet
specific creep with large error coefficients of around North Notts. dry
Coarse aggregate type:
70%. Even without the mixes made with high water/ 8 Stourton, dry
cement ratios, error coefficients are still high at 50 to Stourton, wet North Notts.
70% (Table 7). Also shown in Table 6 is the com- Aglite, dry

pliance, namely the elastic strain plus creep per unit of
stress. This term is preferred by some researchers as it
avoids the uncertainty, and possible source of error,
arising from the demarcation between elastic strain and
starting point for creep owing to the time dependency.
Table 6, however, indicates both wet-stored and dry-
stored compliances are underestimated with error co-
efficients ranging from 22 to 77%. Ignoring the high
water/cement ratios improves accuracy to 17–59%
(Table 7).
Considering the 30-year creep coefficient or creep
factor (creep/elastic strain ratio), the range for all the
concretes was very large, for example, 1.5–9.2 for dry-
stored concrete and 1.2–5.6 for wet-stored concrete, the
creep coefficient increasing as the water/cement ratio
increased or as the strength decreased. The influence of
strength on the creep coefficient is taken into account
by the CEB 90 prediction method but not by the ACI,
BS and GL methods. The B3 model accounts for
strength through the creep function or creep com-
pliance (elastic strain + creep).
A further analysis of the results was made in an
attempt to identify the main source of the inaccuracy
when using methods of prediction. The experimental
humidity factor was checked by calculating the average
ratio of dry-stored creep to wet-stored creep (1.53),
which was found to be generally in agreement with
those values given by the methods (1.43–2.0). The
creep coefficient was, however, found to be dependent
on the type of aggregate as well as compressive
strength as shown in Fig. 11, where the average trend is
shown for each type of aggregate used in the experi-
ments for dry-stored concrete and wet-stored concrete
multiplied by the average experimental humidity factor
of 1.53. Although the CEB method allows for the
change in compressive strength, it can be seen that
there is a large range of creep coefficient owing to the
type of aggregate.
Creep recovery
The levels of creep recovery were small compared
with the final values of creep. After six months from
unloading the North Notts. and Lytag specimens, the
amount of creep recovered ranged from 5 to 14% for
wet-stored concrete and from 1 to 9% for dry-stored
concrete. After 15 years from unloading the Stourton
and Aglite concretes, however, the corresponding re-
covery ranges were higher, namely, 10–26% (wet) and
4–17% (dry).
Total wet-stored strain and total dry-stored strain
The sum of elastic strain, wet-stored creep and swel-
ling (total wet-stored strain), and the sum of elastic
Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9
Creep coefficent
6 Aglite, wet
Lytag, dry Stourton
Lytag, wet
4
CEB 909
2
Lytag
Aglite
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Strength: MPa
Fig. 11 Influence of strength and aggregate type on creep
coefficient of concrete
strain, dry-stored creep and shrinkage (total dry-stored
strain) are the parameters that determine the overall
movements of concrete members. A comparison of the
accuracy of the methods of prediction is shown in
Tables 6 and 7. For normal-weight aggregate concrete,
all methods give underestimates, with the best esti-
mates being given by the ACI method (40% for basic
strain) and the GL method (33% for total strain). The
accuracy of the estimates improves when the high
water/cement ratios are ignored, except for the ACI and
BS methods for semi-lightweight concrete.
Conclusions
The following observations are based on the 30-year
results of strength and deformation using 18 types of
concrete made from normal-weight aggregates and
lightweight coarse aggregates having a range of water/
cement ratios.
(a) The strength of dry-stored specimens exceeds that
of wet-stored specimens by approximately 30%,
the strength being slightly greater for specimens
previously subjected to creep than for the control
(shrinkage/swelling ) specimens.
(b) Conversely, the secant modulus of elasticity of dry-
stored concrete, obtained from unloading the creep
specimens, was less than that of wet-stored con-
crete by approximately 25%. The results, together
with evidence from other researchers, suggest that
some of the water (gel or hydrate) forming part of
the cement paste structure is capable of withstand-
ing a higher load than that of free or capillary
water.
(c) The range of 30-year drying shrinkage of normal-
weight aggregate concrete was 730–1460 3 10
6 .
A lower range occurred for the semi-lightweight
555
Brooks
aggregate concrete and in particular for the Aglite
aggregate concrete, which underwent a slow rever-
sal of shrinkage after approximately one year. The
accuracy of estimating shrinkage by design methods
of prediction ranged from 17 to 63%, the best re-
sults being for normal-weight aggregate concrete.
(d ) Unlike shrinkage, the rate of which gradually de-
creased with time, the rate of swelling appeared to
increase from around the age of one year. Except
for Aglite aggregate concrete, which had a similar
swelling to that of shrinkage, 30-year swelling ran-
ged from 25 to 35% of 30-year shrinkage. Meas-
ured swelling was greater than that estimated by
design methods, but some methods gave accurate
estimates with error coefficients of 16–18%.
(e) Unlike the rate of creep of dry-stored specimens,
which gradually decreased with time, the rate of
creep of wet-stored specimens began to increase
after approximately ten years. Specific creep and
creep compliance were underestimated by all meth-
ods of prediction with high error coefficients. The
range of measured 30-year creep coefficient was
1.2–9.2, depending on the water/cement ratio (or
strength) and aggregate type. Unlike the other
methods of prediction, the CEB model method
does account for the influence of strength. The
results indicate, however, that creep coefficient de-
pended on type of aggregate as well as strength of
concrete.
( f ) To obtain more accurate estimates of long-term
creep and shrinkage, the modulus of elasticity or
short-term values of creep and shrinkage should be
measured and then used in conjunction with a pre-
diction method. This was the recommendation of
an earlier paper3 and is presently even more ap-
plicable for estimating deformation of modern con-
crete containing mineral and chemical admixtures.
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Discussion contributions on this paper should reach the editor by
1 May 2006
Magazine of Concrete Research, 2005, 57, No. 9