http://www.willyoujoinus.com/issues/alternatives/
TEMAS
• Demand
• Supply
• Population
• Geopolitics
• Environment
SUPPLY
• Intro |
• Oil and Gas |
• Renewables |
• Other Alternatives |
• What’s the challenge? |
• What’s next?
Introduction
Fossil fuels currently supply most of the world’s energy, and are expected to continue to do so for
the foreseeable future.1 While supplies are currently abundant, they won’t last forever.2 Oil
production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries,3 yet energy demand is
increasing around the globe as economies grow and nations develop.4 Abundant energy drives
economic development, which in turn creates demand for still more energy.5 But it also puts
pressure on supply and impacts the environment. Where does our fuel come from, how is our
energy supply and the sources of energy changing, and what can we expect in the future?
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid.
8. Chevronwebsite
http://www.chevron.com/technology/core_technologies/.
9. Ibid.
10. USAToday,9/7/04
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2004-09-07-oil-sands_x.htm.
11. Naturalgas.org
http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp.
12. International Energy Outlook, 2004
Renewables
Renewable sources of energy (biomass, solar, wind, hydro and geothermal) are self-replenishing
and clean, and currently contribute 15% of the world’s energy supply.13 Solar power is
expanding as technology improves and its cost becomes more competitive.14 Commercial wind
turbines are now harnessing energy in over 65 countries, making wind power the world’s fastest
growing source of energy after solar.15 And geothermal energy—literally "heat from the earth"—
is meeting a significant portion of electrical power demand in several developing countries.16
But each of these sources has its limitations—technologies are still developing and costs are high
in many cases. While renewables will continue to play a growing role, they aren’t expected to
overtake fossil fuels in the near future in meeting global energy demand.17
http://www.seia.org/news/external/WSJJune2_2005.asp.
http://press.arrivenet.com/pol/article.php/638535.html.
Other Alternatives
Nuclear power has its proponents and skeptics, but it may reemerge as a significant source of
energy.18 It has been developed extensively in several European countries, and currently
provides 75% of France’s electricity.19 While concerns over operating safety and waste disposal
linger, some environmentalists and governments find nuclear power appealing because it is
relatively clean and emits no greenhouse gases.20
Hydrogen also holds some promise in powering fuel-cell vehicles. The issue is finding sources of
pure hydrogen. Currently, the least expensive way of deriving hydrogen is by reforming natural
gas, which means we will continue to be reliant on fossil fuels. Another way to produce hydrogen
is through electrolysis of water, using electricity or sunlight.21
18. International Energy Outlook 2004, World Energy and Economic Outlook, p. 3.
19. http://www.ambafrance-us.org/intheus/nuclear/n2f2/spring2003.asp.
20. New York Times, May 29, 2005
http://www.climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=42280.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/sources/SecondaryHydrogen.html.
What’s next?
Oil, gas, and coal will continue to be a significant energy source for decades to come.22 But, over
time, they will likely share more and more of the market with other sources of energy.23
The sources of energy are changing as energy companies continue to meet the challenge of
fulfilling the world’s demand in the near term and well into the future.
DEMAND
• Intro |
• Where is demand coming from? |
• Why is demand increasing? |
• What's the challenge? |
• What's being done? |
• What's next?
Introduction
The 20th century was marked by rapid growth and an increase in prosperity throughout the
world.1 But the past pales in comparison to the pace at which the 21st century is advancing.2
Populations are increasing, economies are developing, and the world is consuming energy faster
than ever before.3
By 2020, some experts predict the world’s energy consumption will be 40% higher than it is
today.4 Efficiency, improvements, and conservation are part of the solution, but will not, in
themselves, meet the need for more energy.5
10. ChinaDaily
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/11/content_390685.htm.
11. Cambridge Energy Research Associates and US Census Bureau.
12. Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association
http://aftermarketsuppliers.org/articledetail.php?articleId=696
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.p
hp.
15. The Carbon Disclosure Project documents the efforts of the FT Global 500 Index
companies to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions
http://www.cdproject.net.
16. US EPA, Combined Heat and Power Partnership
http:www.epa.gov/chp/index.htm.
17. The Detroit News charts growth in hybrid vehicle sales
http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0505/30/A01-197580.htm.
18. Center for Transportation Excellence
http://www.cfte.org/trends/benefits.asp
What’s next?
Energy efficiency and conservation will continue to play an important role in slowing the growth
in our energy demand.19
In addition, continued improvements in technology, lightweighting of materials, use of alternative
materials (such as non-petroleum-based plastic), and personal and industrial recycling must also
be encouraged.20
It is in the interests of all stakeholders—energy producers, industrial users, governments and
consumers—to make the energy sources we have go as far as they can go.
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=137.
20. Winning the Oil End Game, Rocky Mountain Institute, 2004
http://www.oilendgame.com/pdfs/WtOEg_ExecSummary.pdf.
POPULATION
• Intro |
• What’s happening now? |
• What’s on the horizon? |
• What’s the challenge? |
• What’s being done? |
• What’s next?
Introduction
At 6.4 billion and climbing, the world’s population is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050.1 Yet
our known fossil fuel reserves are in decline, and alternative energy sources are not expanding
rapidly enough to meet future demand.2
Only by working together to create innovative solutions can we meet the challenge of delivering
energy for human progress today and tomorrow. Here is some background on the world
population outlook.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html.
• companies and governments are making large commitments to research and development
of advanced technologies and alternative sources of energy
• auto makers, jet engine manufacturers, electric utilities, and many others are finding ways
to improve energy efficiency and reduce waste
• energy companies are bringing to market unconventional and alternative fuels, such as tar
sands, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gas-to-liquids, solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels
• and millions of small businesses and individuals are doing their part to reduce energy
consumption
But we are still a long way from figuring out how to continue meeting energy demand as
population increases.
What’s next?
There is no silver bullet solution for meeting future demand. But there are many ways we can
address the issue:
These are all part of the solution, but each has its costs and benefits. The challenge we face is to
use all resources at our disposal in a way that will improve the lives of the 6.4 billion people on
the planet today, while preparing for a future world of 9 billion.
GEOPOLITICS
Where are we now?
As globalization continues to dissolve borders, nations are becoming more and more energy
interdependent. Yet the majority of current hydrocarbon resources are concentrated in just five
countries.2 While this has long been the case, what is different now is that more stable sources of
supply—those in the U.S., Canada and Western Europe—are for the most part mature resource
basins, declining in production.3
In the news today, we hear about uncertainties around the world. Even if disruptions do not affect
supply in any meaningful way over the long-term, they do create a psychological risk factor,
which can lead to short-term volatility in energy markets, and a reluctance to invest in those
regions.4
2. Middle East to Dominate World Oil for Many Years, International Monetary Fund, March
2003
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2003/03/okog.htm
3. Accessing the Coal Resources of the United States, US Geological Survey July 1996
http://energy.usgs.gov/factsheets/nca/nca.html
4. Chevron website
http://www.chevron.com/news/speeches/2004/2004-06-24_oreilly.asp
What’s next?
When these basic conditions are in place, investment can flow and partnerships can thrive.
Private industry will be more likely to bring their resources and expertise to bear on the
challenges of finding new sources of energy.6
6. Ibid.
ENVIRONMENT
• Intro |
• Air |
• Water |
• Global Climate Change |
• Ecosystems and Biodiversity |
• Workable Solutions
Introduction
Every person on the planet is dependent on the natural resources that make up our environment—
our "natural capital."1 We sometimes take it for granted, but this capital is vital for sustainable
economic and social progress.2 Energy is a key driver of economic progress throughout the
world, yet the development, transport, and use of energy from all sources impact the
environment.3 So how do we protect our "natural capital" while ensuring an ongoing supply of
reliable and affordable energy?
1. For example, forests provide wood and paper, as well as oxygen; oceans provide food to
eat; agriculture is dependent on fertile soils, etc.
2. Our economies are dependent on raw materials taken from the natural environment.
3. Tomorrow's Markets, p. 24.
Air
The air we breathe day in and day out has a significant impact on our health.4 And while air
quality in many cities in North America and Europe has improved significantly over the last two
decades, many cities in both developed and emerging economies have severe air pollution
problems.5 As economies and urban center populations continue to grow, the air quality
challenge will grow as well. The burning of fossil fuels for power generation and transport has
been a significant contributor to urban air pollution.6 That’s changing for the better in many
places with the spread of low sulfur fuels which are less polluting.7 And while switching to
renewable energy sounds like an obvious solution, the generating capacity and cost of
alternatives remain significant obstacles.8 Meanwhile, technology, regulation, and consumer
choices can all play a role in reducing the impact of our energy use on the air we breathe.9, 10
4. Ibid., p. 26.
5. Ibid., pp. 26, 27.
6. Ibid., p. 26.
7. American Public Transportation Association
http://www.apta.com/services/intnatl/intfocus/lowsulfur.cfm
Asthma Regional Council
http://www.asthmaregionalcouncil.org/about/focus_diesel.html.
8. International Energy Outlook 2004.
9. Urban Air Quality Management, World Bank.
10. For example, more energy efficient industrial process, minimum efficiency standards, and
energy conservation practices.
Water
Energy development and delivery requires the use of, or affects, water in many different ways.
Water is used in the extraction of oil and gas, and as a heat exchanger in refineries, gas plants and
nuclear power plants.11 Crude oil, gasoline and LNG are often transported on rivers and across
oceans. And hydro dams use water directly to generate electricity. But many parts of the world
face a scarcity of clean water, and the crisis is expected to grow.12 Over the past century, world
water withdrawals have increased almost twice as fast as population growth, and in many places
currently exceed recharge capacity.13 In other areas, industrial, residential and agricultural
development have impaired water quality.14
http://www.weforum.org/site/knowledgenavigator.nsf/Content/_S1531?open.
http://www.chevron.com/social_responsibility/environment/global_climate.asp.
http://www.chevron.com/social_responsibility/environment/global_climate.asp.
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.p
hp
http://www.idsnet.org/Resources/Dams/Development/impact-enviro.html.
http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/acidrain/effects/index.html.
Workable Solutions
So how do we address the world’s expanding need for, and impact on, "natural capital," without
diminishing its availability in the future? That will require awareness, vision, thoughtful
assessment, creativity, political will, and cooperation.
Technology is critical to lessening energy development’s impact on our environment (for
example, directional drilling reduces the footprint of exploration and production)24 and advanced
engines reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.25 The rise of alternative energy sources
can make a positive contribution.26 Regulation has a role to ensure that all companies meet
minimum public expectations. And every one of us, companies and individuals alike, need to
understand that our own behaviors and consumption patterns impact the environment, and do
what is within our ability to protect the resources we all depend on.
Top
http://api-ec.api.org/environ/index.cfm?bitmask=001003002001000000.
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_vehicles/trucks_and_buses/page.cfm?pageID=238.