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Program Evaluation Review

Technique
Course progress
Initiating Planning Executing Controlling Closing
Integration
Scope
Time
Cost
Quality
HR
Communications
Risk
Procurement
Stakeholder

We are in the planning process group and time & risk management knowledge area
When can PERT be used?
Project Task Estimates (In Days)
Optimistic Likely Time Pessimistic
Task # Task Name Time (To) (TL) Time (TP) Dependency
1 User Requirements 1 3 5 None
2 Systems Analysis 2 4 7 Task 1
3 Systems Design 1 3 6 Task 2
4 Coding 1 3 5 Task 3
5 Testing 1 2 4 Task 4

Consider a project with these five tasks, stated dependencies and estimates for durations

What is the likelihood that the project is going to finish within 15 days?

PERT: Program Evaluation & Review Technique


Program Evaluation and Review Technique
• Developed by the US. Navy in collaboration with Booz Allen and
Hamilton in 1958
• First used on the Polaris submarine project
• Later on all defense contractors were mandated to use it
• Also used in the construction industry
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
• In CPM we assumed that activity durations are known with certainty
• Is that really true?
• PERT assumes that each activity duration can range from an
optimistic to pessimistic time
Estimation of activity duration

e.g. This activity can take anywhere between 10 hrs. and 70 hrs.
Estimation Activity Durations

A distribution (in this case a beta distribution) can be fitted to the data
PERT

Probabilistic nature of activity durations.


PERT Assumptions
TO  4TL  TP
G
TE 
6

A B E F H

D
•Assumption 1
–A critical path can be determined by using the mean completion times for the
activities
–The project mean completion time is determined solely by the completion time
of the activities on the critical path.
PERT Assumptions

A B E F H

D
Assumption 2
There are enough activities on the critical path so that the distribution of the
overall project completion time can be approximated by the normal distribution
(this comes from a statistical theory called Central Limit Theorem)
PERT Assumptions
• Assumption 3
• The time to complete one activity is independent of the completion time of
any other activity

A B E F H

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