ENR 304: Energy Systems Modeling and Simulation - Correlation and Regression Lab Assignment

Gti Ghi TEMP E_exp

1.14 0.92 6.04 11
2.66 1.57 5.16 28 The pv electricity production by a solar power plant is thought to be related to the
3.85 1.94 4.52 41 x1, global horizontal irradiation x2, and air temperature x3. The last two weeks' hi
and are presented in the following table.
3.41 1.85 5.20 36 a) Plot a scatter plot showing the relation between each parameter (Gti, Ghi, Tem
2.44 1.51 6.32 25 production (E_exp). Add all information on the graphs. Three graphs are needed.
b) Calculate the correlation between each parameter (Gti, Ghi, Temp) and pv elec
1.38 1.08 6.58 14 Comment on these values. How are they related?
0.66 0.63 7.09 6 c) Fit a simple linear regression model for predicting electricity production by usin
1.12 0.96 6.21 11 the best correlation between itself and E_exp, using the data set.
d) Fit a multiple linear regression model to predict the pv electricity production (E
0.90 0.82 5.45 9 data set (Gti, Ghi, Temp).
1.47 1.21 4.82 15 e) Predict electricity production for a day in which x1 = 2, x2 = 1,1 , x3 = 5.
2.66 1.74 5.77 28
1.45 1.19 5.13 15
1.22 1.07 5.40 12
3.06 2.01 8.49 32 Data columns:
E_exp Expected pv electricity production - best estimation
Gti Global tilted irradiation [kWh/m2]
Ghi Global horizontal irradiation [kWh/m2]
TEMP Average diurnal (24 hour) air temperature at 2 m [d
Assignment

is thought to be related to the global tilted irradiation

ure x3. The last two weeks' historical data are available

each parameter (Gti, Ghi, Temp) and PV electricity

hs. Three graphs are needed.
er (Gti, Ghi, Temp) and pv electricity production (E_exp).

electricity production by using the parameter that has

the data set.
he pv electricity production (E_exp) using the all the
1 = 2, x2 = 1,1 , x3 = 5.

columns:
y production - best estimation [kWh]
n [kWh/m2]
iation [kWh/m2]
our) air temperature at 2 m [deg. C]
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9999403297
R Square 0.9998806631
Adjusted R Square 0.999844862
Standard Error 0.137960923
Observations 14

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1594.723601518 531.5745 27928.78 6.5515842E-20
Residual 10 0.1903321627 0.019033
Total 13 1594.913933681

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept -0.4392847285 0.2601986539 -1.68827 0.122249 -1.0190434585 0.140474002
Gti 10.8904407823 0.1673184473 65.08811 1.78E-14 10.5176320492 11.26324952
Ghi -0.224963278 0.381767734 -0.58927 0.568754 -1.0755947986 0.625668243
TEMP -0.0771332903 0.0400942177 -1.9238 0.083284 -0.1664687745 0.012202194

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted E_exp Residuals

1 11.331750915 0.0363194042
2 27.7633917454 0.3044088631
3 40.7366698759 -0.0760454798
4 35.9249335487 -0.1345080879
5 25.2724869628 0.0916867625
6 13.809180875 0.1336951559
7 6.1002852216 -0.0403260662
8 11.0797092014 0.0245681651
9 8.8094917965 -0.1794822299
10 14.9439578589 0.0221402235
11 27.7212398912 -0.0023120281
12 14.6458292556 -0.0600251964
13 12.2382946125 -0.0453025753
14 31.7389469611 -0.0748169106
 Gti Residual Plot Gti
0.4 50
40
0.2
30

Residuals

E_exp
0 20
0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 10
-0.2
0
-0.4 0.00 1.00 2.0
Gti

Ghi Residual Plot Ghi

0.4 50
40
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 0.2 30
Residuals

E_exp
-1.019043458 0.1404740015 0 20
10.517632049 11.263249516 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 10
-0.2 0
-1.075594799 0.6256682426 0.50 1.00
-0.4
-0.166468774 0.012202194
Ghi

TEMP Residual Plot TEM

0.4 50
40
0.2
30
Residuals

E_exp
0 20
4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 10
-0.2
0
-0.4 4.00 5.00 6.0
TEMP T
 Gti Line Fit Plot
50
40
30 E_exp
E_exp

20 Predicted E_exp
10
0
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
Gti

Ghi Line Fit Plot

50
40
30 E_exp
E_exp

20 Predicted E_exp
10
0
0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
Ghi

TEMP Line Fit Plot

50
40
30 E_exp
E_exp

20 Predicted E_exp
10
0
4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00
TEMP
 E_exp vs. Gti E_exp
45 45
40 40
35 35
30 30
25 25
E_exp

E_exp
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
Gti

E_exp vs. TEMP

45
40
35
30
25
E_exp

20
15
10
5
0
4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00
TEMP
 E_exp vs. Ghi
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20
Ghi
Correlation Gti & E_exp
1.00
Correlation Ghi & E_exp Correlation TEMP & E_exp
1 -0.1353534456
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Gti Re

Multiple R 0.999906 0.6
R Square 0.999812 0.4

Residuals
Adjusted R 0.999797 0.2
Standard E 0.157889 0
Observatio 14 -0.20.50 1.00 1.50
-0.4
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1594.615 1594.615 63966.77 9.82E-24
Residual 12 0.299146 0.024929
Total 13 1594.914

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept -1.02296 0.093753 -10.9112 1.39E-07 -1.22723 -0.81869 -1.22723 -0.81869
Gti 10.80549 0.042724 252.9165 9.82E-24 10.7124 10.89857 10.7124 10.89857

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted E_exp
Residuals
1 11.32462 0.043447
2 27.70421 0.363592
3 40.61135 0.04927
4 35.86916 -0.07874
5 25.30941 0.054764
6 13.85871 0.084166
7 6.148654 -0.0887
8 11.09686 0.007413
9 8.754241 -0.12423
10 14.87968 0.086414
11 27.74775 -0.02883
12 14.60261 -0.01681
13 12.2068 -0.01381
14 32.0021 -0.33797
 Gti Residual Plot
0.6
0.4
Residuals

0.2
0
-0.20.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
-0.4
Gti
(d.) E_exp= 10.90X1 - 0.23X2 - 0.08X3 - 0.44
(e.) E_exp= 20.707