6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 1
02'(/2'(75$163257(&/$6,&2
'DWRVGH
=RQLILFDFLyQ\UHG 'DWRVGHDxR
SODQLILFDFLyQSDUD
HVWUDWpJLFD EDVH
HODxRGH'LVHxR
%DVHGH'DWRV
)XWXUR
$xREDVH
*(1(5$&,21<$75$&&,21
'(0$1'$ 0DWUL]GH9LDMHV
',675,%8&,21
0RGHOR*UDYLWDFLRQDO
3$57,&,2102'$/
)XQFLzQGH8WLOLGDG$OHDWRULD
2)(57$
$6,*1$&,21$5('(632502'2
:DUGURS(VWUDWHJLDV5XWDV2SWLPDV
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 2
(1)248('(02'(/$&,21
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 3
(1)248('(02'(/$&,21
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 4
*(1(5$&,Ï1'(9,$-(6
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 5
)$6(6'(8102'(/2'(75$163257(
Producción de Viajes
Distribución
Partición Modal
Asignación
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 6
*(1(5$&,21'(9,$-(6
UN VIAJE NHB.
• $75$&&,Ï1'(9,$-(6.- SE DEFINE COMO EL EXTREMO NO-HOGAR DE UN VIAJE HB Ó EL DESTINO
DE UN VIAJE NHB
352'8&&,21 352'8&&,21
+2*$5 75$%$-2
352'8&&,21 352'8&&,21
352'8&&,21 $75$&&,21
75$%$-2 &20(5&,2
$75$&&,21 352'8&&,21
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 7
&$7(*25,=$&,21'(/$'(0$1'$
• (675$7,),&$&,21'(/$'(0$1'$ .- SE
REALIZA A NIVEL DE PROPOSITO DE VIAJE, EL
COMPORTAMIENTO DEL USUARIO ES DISTINTO
PARA CADA MOTIVO DE VIAJE.
– TRABAJO
– ESTUDIO
– Y OTROS MOTIVOS
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 8
&/$6,),&$&,Ï1'(9,$-(6
&ODVLILFDFLyQDGLFLRQDO
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 9
$1$/,6,6'(5(*5(6,21/,1($/08/7,3/(
• 5HJUHVLyQDQLYHO]RQDO
Para que esto ocurra, las zonas debieran tener una composición socio-
económica homogénea y representar un rango tan amplio de condiciones
como sea posible; el problema es que se sabe que la mayor variación
ocurre al interior de las zonas (alta varianza)
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 10
0RGHORGH'HPDQGD(VWXGLR
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 11
0RGHORGH'HPDQGD(VWXGLR
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 12
*(1(5$&,21'(9,$-(6
&RQIHUHQFH$XJXVWR
2
L
S
= 1.36832. ;1 + 0.70039.; 2 + 1.16410. ; 3 + 3.02837. ; 4 + 0.82671.; 5
L L L L L
'RQGH
2
L
S
= 180(52'(9,$-(6&2132326,72SS
=21$L
WRGRV ORV SURSRVLWR HQHO&DVR&2125,*(1(1/$
;
1L = 32%/$&,21(1/$=21$L
;
2L = (03/($'26'(6(&725$*5,&8/785$(1/$=21$L
;
3L = (03/($'26'(6(&7250$18)$&785(52(1/$=21$L
;
4L = (03/($'26'(6(&725&20(5&,2(1/$=21$L
;
5L = 38(6726(6&2/$5(6(1/$=21$L
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 13
$75$&&,21'(9,$-(6
&RQIHUHQFH$XJXVWR
'
S
M
= 1.40447. ;1 + 0.67486. ; 2 + 1.19761.; 3 + 3.04343. ; 4 + 0.92853.; 5
M M M M M
'RQGH
'
S
M
= 180(52'(9,$-(6&2132326,72SS
=21$M
WRGRV ORV SURSRVLWR HQHO&DVR&2125,*(1(1/$
;
1M = 32%/$&,21(1/$=21$M
;
2M = (03/($'26'(6(&725$*5,&8/785$(1/$=21$M
;
3M = (03/($'26'(6(&7250$18)$&785(52(1/$=21$M
;
4M = (03/($'26'(6(&725&20(5&,2(1/$=21$M
;
5M = 38(6726(6&2$/5(6(1/$=21$M
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 14
$1$/,6,6'(5(*5(6,21/,1($/08/7,3/(
• 5HJUHVLyQDQLYHOGHKRJDU
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 15
Regresión a nivel de hogar
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 16
5/0± 352%/(0$'(12/,1($/,'$'
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 17
5/0± 352%/(0$'(12/,1($/,'$'
Cada hogar observado solo puede pertenecer a uno de los intervalos, por lo que se le
adjudica valor de 1 en esa clase y 0 en las otras. Se necesita (n-1) variables mudas
para representar n intervalos.
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 18
0RGHORGHUHJUHVLyQFRQYDULDEOHVPXGDV
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 19
2EWHQFLyQGHWRWDOHV]RQDOHV
7
L
= 1 (0.91 + 1.44 ; 1 + 1.07 ; 2
L L L
7
L
= 1 (0.84 + 1.41; 1 ) + 0.7511 + 3.1412
L L L L
Donde:
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 20
$QiOLVLVGH&ODVLILFDFLyQ0~OWLSOH$&0
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 21
7DVDVGHJHQHUDFLyQGHYLDMHV
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 22
02'(/26'(*(1(5$&,21'(9,$-(6
2
L
SQ
= 2( SQ
L EKL )
+2(
SQ
L EKU )
+2(
SQ
L QEK )
'21'(
2
L
SQ
= 180(52727$/'(9,$-(6&21352326,72S352'8&,'26325868$5,26 '(/$
&$7(*25,$Q(1$/=21$L
2
L
SQ
&/$6,),&$&,21$17(5,25
2
SQ
L EKU
( ) = 180(52727$/'(9,$-(6%$6$'26(1(/+2*$5'(5(72512EKU3$5$/$0,60$
&/$6,),&$&,21$17(5,25
2
L
SQ
&/$6,),&$&,21$17(5,25
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 23
*(1(5$&,21'(9,$-(6%$6$'26(1(/+2*$5'(,'$EKL
2
SQ
L EKL
( ) = + .W Q
L
SQ
'RQGH
2
SQ
L EKL
( ) = Num ero de viaj es con proposit o S generados por los hogares de
la cat egoria Q de la zona L
+
L
Q
= Num ero de hogares de la cat egoria Q en la zona L
W
SQ
= Tasa de generacion de viaj es con proposit os S de los hogares de
la cat egoria Q
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 24
$QiOLVLVGHUHJUHVLyQSDUDFDWHJRUtDVGH
KRJDUHV
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 25
$1$/,6,6'(&/$6,),&$&,2108/7,3/(± $&0
SE OBTIENE DE
CENSO (INEI) o
EODH
(MHPSOR 3URSyVLWRWUDEDMR
,QJUHVRGHO+RJDU 1XPHURGHDXWRV
SQ
SE OBTIENE DE W
CENSO (INEI) o SE OBTIENE DE UNA
EODH MUESTRA DE ENCUESTA DE
HOGARES ORIGEN-DESTINO
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 26
02'(/2&/$6,&2'(75$163257(
02'(/26'(*(1(5$&,21<$75$&&,21
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 27
*(1(5$&,21'(9,$-(6
*(1(5$&,21'(9,$-(6 *(1(5$&,21'(9,$-(612
5(72512EKU
2
L
S
= θ 0 + ∑ θ .; + (
N LN L
N
'RQGH
2 = L
S
180(52'(9,$-(6&2132326,72S &2125,*(1(1/$=21$L
θ =
N
3$5$0(7526'(&$/,%5$&,21
;
LN
= 9$5,$%/(6(;3/,&$7,9$6=21$/(6
(
L
= 180(52(5525'((67,0$&,213$5$/$=21$L
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 28
02'(/26'($75$&&,21'(9,$-(6
VIAJES ATRAIDOS BASADOS EN EL HOGAR DE IDA (bhi) Y VIAJES NO BASADOS EN EL HOGAR (nbh). PARA
ESTOS DOS CASOS, LAS VARIABLES EXPLICATIVAS CORRESPONDEN NORMALMENTE A EQUIPAMIENTO
POR ZONA, DEDICADOS A CADA ACTIVIDAD Y NO LOS HOGARES (NINGUNO DE ESTOS VIAJES TIENE
DESTINO EL HOGAR). POR TANTO, UN MODELO DE ESTE TIPO DEBE SER CALIBRADO A NIVEL ZONAL
PARA CADA PROPOSITO Y PERIOD DE ANALISIS DEFINIDO UTILIZANDO TECNICAS DE REGRESION
LINELA MULTIPLE (RLM)
'
S
M
= θ 0 + ∑ θ .; N MN
+( M
N
'RQGH
' = S
M
180(52'(9,$-(6&2132326,72S &2125,*(1(1/$=21$L
θ = N
3$5$0(7526'(&$/,%5$&,21
;
MN
= 9$5,$%/(6(;3/,&$7,9$6=21$/(6
(
M
= 180(52(5525'((67,0$&,213$5$/$=21$L
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 29
$75$&&,21'(9,$-(6325=21$
$&7,9,'$'(6'((48,3$0,(172(;,67(17((1/$=21$
• 9,$-(6&21352326,72(678',2
: SON ATRAIDOS POR LA PRESENCIA DE
ESTABLECIMIENTOS EDUCACIONALES (NUMERO DE MATRICULAS POR NIVEL :
BASICO, MEDIA Y SUPERIOR)
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 30
02'(/2'(*(1(5$&,21$75$&&,21
LA OPERACION DEL MODELO DE TRANSPORTE REQUIERE COMO DATOS DE ENTRADA LOS VECTORES ORIGEN-
DESTINO DE VIAJES PARA CADA PERIODO DE ANALISIS. CLASIFICADOS POR PROPOSITOS DE VIAJE Y POR
CATEGORIAS DE DEMANDA. LA ESTIMIMACION DE TALES VECTORES CONSTITUYEN EL OBJETIVO DE LOS
MODELOS DE GENERACION – ATRACCION
LOS ORIGENES SON CLASIFICADOS POR PROPOSITOS-CATEGORIA Y LOS DESTINOS EN CAMBIO, SON
CLASIFICABLES SOLO POR PROPOSITO DE VIAJE. ASI, EL MODELO DE TRANSPORTE RECIBE COMO DATOS DE
ENTRADA UN VECTOR ORIGEN POR CADA PROPOSITO DE VIAJE Y POR CADA CATEGORIA DE DEMANDA ( 2 ); Y
UN VECTOR DESTINO POR CADA PROPOSITO DE VIAJE, EN EL QUE TODAS LAS CATEGORIAS DE DEMANDA
∑ ∑ ∑L S Q
2
L
SQ
= ∑ ∑
M S
'
S
'RQGH
2
L
SQ
= NUMERO DE VIAJES GENERADOS EN LA ZONA (i) DE LA CATEGORIA Q, CON PROPOSITO S
'
SQ
M
= NUMERO DE VIAJES ATRAIDOS POR ZONA M, CON PROPOSITO S
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 31
9(&725(6'(*(1(5$&,21$75$&&,21'(
9,$-(6
3URSRVLWRS&DWHJRULDQ
3URSRVLWRS&DWHJRULDQ
7RWDO
∑ ' ∑ ' ∑ ' ∑ '
∑ ' ∑ '
7RWDO
Oi
∑ 2
9(&725'($75$&&,21'(9,$-(6//(*$1
∑ 2
ZONAS DE ORI GEN ( O)
∑ 2
∑ 2
∑ 2
9(&725'(352'8&&,21'(9,$-(66$/(1
∑ 2
.
.
.
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 32
',675,%8&,Ï1'(9,$-(6
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 33
)$6(6'(8102'(/2'(75$163257(
Producción de Viajes
Distribución
Partición Modal
Asignación
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 34
0$75,='(9,$-(6
3URSRVLWRS&DWHJRULDQ
3URSRVLWRS&DWHJRULDQ
∑ 2
∑ 2
ZONAS DE ORI GEN ( O)
∑ 2
7
,
∑ 2
∑ 2
∑ 2
.
.
.
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
' ' ' ' ' '
7RWDO
. . .
7
L , M
= Viajes t ot ales del par ( i, j) ∑ '
∑ 2
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 35
02'(/26'(',675,%8&,21'(9,$-(6
• 6((1&$5*$'('(&,',5¢+$&,$'21'(5($/,=$5(/9,$-("
• (/02'(/2'(',675,%8&,21'(9,$-(6&255(6321'($812'(7,32
*5$9,7$&,21$/'2%/(0(17($&27$'2&8<$)2508/$&,216(
35(6(17$&202
7
L ,M = $ 2 %
L
. . .' . I (& , )
L M M L M
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 36
9LDMHVYHUVXVWLHPSRV± 73~EOLFR
350
300
9LDMHVGHOD0XHVWUD
Viajes - Muestra
250
Viajes - Ajustados
200
150
100
50
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
,QWH UYD ORGH 7LH PSRV
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 37
02'(/2'(',675,%8&,Ï1'(9,$-(6
0RGHOR*UDYLWDFLRQDO
'RQGH
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 38
02'(/2*5$9,7$&,21$/
≅
9RO~PHQHVGHSDVDMHURVGHOPRGHOR9RO~PHQHVGH3DVDMHURVREVHUYDGRV
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 39
)81&,21'(&26726*(1(5$/,=$'26
&
N
LM
= WY + WH . SZDLW + WF . SZDON + WD / YW +
N
LM
N
LM
N
LM LM
N
SWU
N
'RQGH
&
N
LM
= &2672*(1(5$/,=$'2'(9,$-((1(/02'2N (175(/$6=21$6LM
WY
N
LM
= 7,(032'(9,$-(02'2N (175(/$6=21$LM
WH
N
LM
= 7,(032'((63(5$02'2N (175(/$6=21$LM
SZDLW = 321'(5$'25'(/7,(032'((63(5$
WF
N
LM
= 7,(032'(&$0,1$7$'(02'2N (175(/$6=21$6LM
SZDON = 321'(5$'25'(/7,(032'(&$0,1$7$
WD = N
LM
7$5,)$02'2N (175(/$6=21$6LM
YW = )$&725'( &219(56,21'(81,'$'(6021(7$5,$6$81,'$'(6'(7,(032
SWU = 3(1$/,'$''(75$16%25'2
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 40
0HWRGRORJtDGHFiOFXORGHGLVWULEXFLyQGHYLDMHV
CALCULO DE LA FUNCION DE BH BH BH BH
IMPEDANCIA EMPLEOS MATRICULA ESCOLAR NBH
Trabajo Estudio Compras Otros
DISTRIBUCION DE VIAJES
MODELO GRAVITACIONAL
Matrices de Viajes
BH BH BH BH
NBH
Trabajo Estudio Compras Otros
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 41
Coeficient e de las funciones F( Cij )
$XWR &LMA H[S &LM Auto &LMA H[S &LM
$XWR &LMA H[S &LM Auto &LMA H[S &LM
7SH3~EOLFR &LMA H[S &LM Tpe. Público &LMA H[S &LM
&'
9 8: '-
/*0#
)*
!*-
400000
350000
−λ&
300000
250000
) & ( LM
) =& −β
LM
H
LM
NO P Q R S
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
<=<= >;
? B @A
BE
GB AFH
LK IJA
<= >M
CD<
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 42
',675,%8&,Ï1'(/269,$-(6
$
M
I (F )
7 = 3 LM
∑
LM L Q
$
M
M =1
I (F )
LM
)LQDOPHQWHFRQHVWDIXQFLyQVHFRPSOHWDORVYLDMHVQRFDSWDGRVR VRQFHURV
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 43
3$57,&,Ï102'$/
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 44
)$6(6'(8102'(/2'(75$163257(
Producción de Viajes
Distribución
Partición Modal
Asignación
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 45
02'(/2'(3$57,&,2102'$/
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 46
02'(/2'(3$57,&,2102'$/
)81&,2187,/,'$'
8
SQP
LM
=δ SQP
LM
+ ∑θ SQP
LM
.; SQP
LM
N ∈$ Q
'RQGH
δ SQP
LM
= &2167$17(02'$/48(5(35(6(17$&,(57$6&$5$&7(5,67,&$648((/02'2P7,(1(
(67$15(35(6(17$'26(1(/5(672'(/$)81&,2187,/,'$''(/02'2
θ SQP
LM
= (/3$5$0(7525(35(6(17$(/3(6248(/26868$5,26'(352326,72S<&$7(*25,$Q
7$/(63$5$0(7526'(%(16(5&$/,%5$'26
;
LM
SQP
= 5(35(6(17$,1',67,17$0(17(/26$75,%8726'(/02'2P</$6&$5$&7(5,67,&$6
'(/868$5,2'(352326,72S<$&$7(*25,$Q<02'2P(175(/$6=21$6LM
,1&/8<($75,%8726'(/02'26869$5,$%/(67,(032'(9,$-(7,(032'((63(5$
&20%,1$&,21'(9$5,$%/(67$5,)$&21,1*5(62)$0,/,$5
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 47
02'(/2'(3$57,&,2102'$/
02'(/2/2*,708/7,120,$/
λ 8
SQP
H
LM
3
LM
SQP
= , ∀ (L, M , S , Q , P )
∑
−λ8 SQN
H
LM
N ∈ $
Q
'RQGH
3
LM
SQP
= 352%$%,/,'$''(48(81868$5,2'(352326,72S&$7(*25,$Q(/,-$(/02'2P
(175(/$6=21$6LM
8
LM
SQN
= )81&,21'(87,/,'$''(/02'2N352326,72S<868$5,2'(&$7(*25,$Q
λ = 3$5$0(752'(&$/,%5$&,21'(/02'(/2/2*,7² 5(35(6(17$81)$&725'((6&$/$
(1/$',675,%8&,21:(,%8//'((5525(6$62&,$'26$8102'(/2'((/(&&,21
',6&5(7$'(/7,32/2*,7
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 48
3$57,&,2102'$/
'RQGH
7
SQP
LM
= 7 .3
SQ
LM LM
SQP
7
LM
SQP
= 9,$-(6'(/26868$5,26'(352326,72S<$7(*25,$Q48((/,*(1(/02'2P(175(
=21$6LM
7
LM
SQ
= 9,$-(6'(352326,72S<&$7(*25,$Q48(9,$-(1(175(=21$6LM
3
LM
SQP
= 352%$%,/,'$''(48(/26868$5,26'(352326,72S&$7(*25,$Q(/,-$1(/02'2P
(175(/$6=21$6LM
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 49
02'(/266,03/,),&$'26
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 50
(67,0$&,Ï1'(0$75,&(6$3$57,5'(
&217(26
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 51
(67,0$&,Ï1'(0$75,&(6$3$57,5'(
&217(26 9HQWDMD
6HPLQDULR 7DOOHU 52