POL 129

Winter 2008
DIPLOMACY UNDER COLONIALISM,
1897-1948
• The Zionist vision of the path to statehood: the
clash between political and practical Zionism
• The Arab vision of Palestine—competing
perspectives (Greater Syria, Greater Jordan,
indigenous Palestine)
• Diplomacy during WWII
• The diplomacy of the UN Partition Plan
• Prewar diplomacy: Israel-Jordan, Inter-Arab
 POSTWAR DIPLOMACY: THE
POLITICS OF SUSPICION, 1949-67
• Israeli-Jordanian Negotiations
• The Husni Za’im proposal
• Israeli-Egyptian secret negotiations
• Israeli-Jordanian negotiations, 1963-67
• Why did diplomacy fail in the 1949-67
period?
 Post 1967 Diplomacy:
Between Frustration and
Arrogance
• The Israeli lone peace proposal of June
19, 1967: the unintended initiative and
its strange outcome
• Arab reaction to the 1967 war: the
Khartoum summit
• The diplomacy of U.N. Resolution 242.
• The Sadat initiatives and Israeli
reactions
• The 1973 war as a jump start for
diplomacy: Why diplomacy failed?
 Post-1973 Diplomacy:
From Step-by-Step to
Separate Peace
• Diplomacy through stalemate—How the
US managed the Arab-Israeli conflict
• The logic of step-by-step diplomacy
• Comprehensive vs. separate peace—the
Arab dilemma
• Comprehensive vs. separate peace—the
Israeli dilemma
• Surprise diplomacy—Sadat’s strategy
 FROM CAMP DAVID I TO CAMP
DAVID II: GETTING THE
PALESTINIANS IN
• A model for peacemakers? Camp David I in
perspective
• Saving the Israelis and Palestinians from themselves:
how third parties got diplomacy going—Jordan, the
United States, and Iraq
• Track II diplomacy and the transformation of Israeli-
Palestinian relations
• Oslo and after: Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy in the
1990s
• Israeli-Syrian negotiations, 1992-2000
• The Camp David II controversy
• Beyond Camp David—the Roadmap and other
intangibles
Mediation concerns a range of activities by a party
external to a conflict between two states aimed at
managing or resolving the conflict by peaceful means.

Issues in the Study of Mediation

• When do conflicts get mediated?

• Who mediates?
• What are the strategies of mediators?
• What are the attributes that increase the
likelihood of mediation success?
• What is the record of mediators in the A-I conflict?
 Year Dispute Issue Mediator Outcome
1947 Jews-Palestinians Partition UN Failure--war
1949 Israel-Egypt Armistice UN Partial success--armistice agreement
1949 Israel-Jordan Armistice UN Partial success--armistice agreement
1949 Israel-Syria Armistice UN Partial success--armistice agreement
1949 Israel-Jordan Jerusalem UN Failure--mediator assassinated
1951 Israel-Syria Hulah Dispute UN Failure--no agreement
1954 Israel-Syria Water Sharing US Failure--no agreement
1954 Israel-Jordan Water Sharing US Partial success--tacit agreement
1956 Israel-Egypt Sinai War UN Success--agreement, UNEF
1967 Israel-Egypt Six Day War UN Failure--war
1967 Israel-Egypt Six Day War UN Failure--no agreement
1967 Israel-Syria Six Day War UN Failure--no agreement
1967 Israel-Jordan Six Day War UN Failure--no agreement
1969 Israel-Egypt War of Attrition US-Soviet Rogers Proposal--Failure--Israel & Egypt rejection
1970 Israel-Egypt War of Attrition US Rogers Initiative--partial success--cease fire
1971 Israel-Egypt Comprehensive agreement UN Jarring Mission--failure--Israel rejection
1971-72 Israel-Egypt Partial Agreement US Failure--Israel rejection
1973 Israel-Egypt Cease fire UN Partial success--cease fire
1973 Israel-Syria Cease fire UN Partial success--cease fire
1974 Israel-Egypt Disengagement US Success--agreement
1974 Israel-Syria Disengagement US Success--agreement--UNDOF
1975 Israel-Egypt Interim agreement US Success--agreement
1978-79 Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty US Success--agreement--MFO
1978 Israel-Lebanon Litani operation UN Partial success--UNIFIL--but ultimately ineffective
1981 Israel-Egypt Autonomy talks US Failure--Israeli violations, Egyptian suspension
1981 Israel-PLO Lebanon Conflict US Partial success--but eventual failure--Israel repudiat
1982 Israel-PLO Lebanon War US Partial success--PLO withdrawal
1983 Israel-Lebanon Nonbelligerence treaty US Failure--Lebanon repudiation
1983-85 Israel-Egypt Taba International Co Success--arbitration
1987 Israel-Jordan London Treaty US Failure--Israeli rejection
1986-90 Israel-Palestinians Autonomy talks US Failure--Israeli and PLO rejection
1991 Israel-Arabs Madrid Conference US Success
1993 Israel-PLO Oslo Norway Success--Oslo Accord
1994-2000 Israel-PLO Oslo implementaiton US Ultimate failure--Intifada
1992-2000 Israel-Syria Peace Treaty US Failure: Syrian rejection
2000- Israel-Palestinians Intifada US So far, failure
2006 Israel-Lebanon Lebanon II War UN So far, success
Statistics on Mediation Outcomes
in the A-I Conflict, 1947-2006

Mediation No. of
Outcome Cases Pct.
Failure 17 45.95%
Partial Success 12 32.43%
Success 8 21.62%

Total 37 100.00%

Mediator Outcome
Failure Partial Success

UN 0.50 0.44 0.06

US 0.44 0.28 0.28

Other 0.33 0.00 0.67