Variables de entrada

Ventas (Q) 75,600.00

Precio 12.60
costos de produccion unit 5.70
Gastos de operación 186,666.66
Inversion A.F 300,000.00
Capital de trabajo
Prestamos 05 años 150,000.00 Cuadro de Servicio a la Deuda
TEA 13%
COK 15% Inicial
Horizonte (años) 7 Cuota
I.Renta 30.0% Interes
Amortizacion
Saldo Final

Estado de Resultados
Estado de Resultados financiero 1 2 3 4
Ingresos 952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00
costos de produccion -430,920.00 -430,920.00 -430,920.00 -430,920.00
Utilidad Bruta 521,640.00 521,640.00 521,640.00 521,640.00
Gastos de operación -186,666.66 -186,666.66 -186,666.66 -186,666.66
Depreciacion del A.F -42,857.14 -42,857.14 -42,857.14 -42,857.14
Utilidad Operativa 292,116.20 292,116.20 292,116.20 292,116.20
Gastos financieros -17,151.82 -14,142.69 -10,742.37 -6,900.01
Utilidad Antes de Impuestos 274,964.37 277,973.51 281,373.83 285,216.19
Impuesto Renta (30%) -82,489.31 -83,392.05 -84,412.15 -85,564.86
Utilidad Neta 192,475.06 194,581.45 196,961.68 199,651.33

Estado de Resultados econ 1 2 3 4

Ingresos 952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00
costos de produccion -430,920.00 -430,920.00 -430,920.00 -430,920.00
Utilidad Bruta 521,640.00 521,640.00 521,640.00 521,640.00
Gastos de operación -186,666.66 -186,666.66 -186,666.66 -186,666.66
Depreciacion del A.F -42,857.14 -42,857.14 -42,857.14 -42,857.14
Utilidad Operativa 292,116.20 292,116.20 292,116.20 292,116.20
Impuesto Renta (30%) -87,634.86 -87,634.86 -87,634.86 -87,634.86
Utilidad Neta 204,481.34 204,481.34 204,481.34 204,481.34

FLUJO DE CAJA 0 1 2 3
INGRESOS 952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00
Ventas 952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00
Recuperacion del CTN
EGRESOS -377,198.33 -705,221.52 -705,221.52 -705,221.52
Costos de Produccion -430,920.00 -430,920.00 -430,920.00
Gastos de Operación -186,666.66 -186,666.66 -186,666.66
 Impuesto a la Renta -87,634.86 -87,634.86 -87,634.86
INVERSION -377,198.33
Activo Fijo -300,000.00
Capital de Trabajo -77,198.33
FLUJO DE CAJA ECONOMICO -377,198.33 247,338.48 247,338.48 247,338.48
Préstamo 150,000.00
Pago de préstamo -40,299.01 -40,299.01 -40,299.01
Escudo Fiscal Tributario 5,145.55 4,242.81 3,222.71
FLUJO DE CAJA FINANCIERO -227,198.33 212,185.02 211,282.28 210,262.19

Calculo de Capital de Trabajo

Ciclo de produccion 45.00
Dias de cobranza 30.00
Dias de crédito de provee 30.00
Dias a Financiar 45.00
Indide de rotac 0.125
CTN 77,198.33

CALCULO DEL WACC

Préstamo -
Aporte de socios 377,198.33
Inversion Total 377,198.33
WACC 15.00%
VANE 680,855.28
TIRE 63.92%
VANF 707,133.39
TIRF 92.83%

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD
VARIABLES A SENSIBILIZAR OPTIMO OPTIMISTA PESIMISTA Equilibrio
Ventas (Q) 108% 108% 92%
Precio 105% 105% 95%
costos de produccion unit 95% 95% 105%
Gastos de operación 93% 93% 108%

VAN TIR
Sensiblidad a las ventas (Q) 680,855.28 63.92%
130% 983,468.09 81.91%
120% 845,916.81 73.91%
110% 708,365.53 65.62%
100% 570,814.26 56.99%
90% 433,262.98 47.95%
80% 295,711.70 38.40%
 70% 158,160.42 28.13%

VAN TIR
Sensiblidad Precio 680,855.28 63.92%
130% 1,341,363.51 107.14%
120% 1,077,160.22 90.02%
110% 812,956.92 72.70%
100% 548,753.63 55.02%
90% 284,550.33 36.63%
80% 20,347.04 16.65%
70% -243,856.25 -7.56%

VAN TIR
Sensibilidad costo de produccion 680,855.28 63.92%
130% 206,114.98 30.01%
120% 341,755.07 39.67%
110% 477,395.15 49.31%
100% 613,035.23 59.02%
90% 748,675.32 68.86%
80% 884,315.40 78.89%
70% 1,019,955.49 89.14%

VAN TIR
Sensiblidad gasto de operac. 680,855.28 63.92%
130% 461,566.47 48.18%
120% 521,372.50 52.45%
110% 581,178.53 56.73%
100% 640,984.57 61.04%
90% 700,790.60 65.37%
80% 760,596.64 69.74%
70% 820,402.67 74.14%

MARTIZ DE RESULTADOS DEL VPN MEDIANTE EL ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DE VARIAB

VARIABLES SENSIBILIZADAS
VARIACION ventas precio Cost prod uni
130% 983,468.09 1,341,363.51 206,114.98
120% 845,916.81 1,077,160.22 341,755.07
110% 708,365.53 812,956.92 477,395.15
100% 570,814.26 548,753.63 613,035.23
90% 433,262.98 284,550.33 748,675.32
80% 295,711.70 20,347.04 884,315.40
70% 158,160.42 -243,856.25 1,019,955.49
dro de Servicio a la Deuda
1 2 3 4 5
150,000.00 126,852.82 100,696.50 71,139.87 37,740.87
40,299.01 40,299.01 40,299.01 40,299.01 40,299.01
17,151.82 14,142.69 10,742.37 6,900.01 2,558.14
23,147.18 26,156.32 29,556.64 33,399.00 37,740.87
126,852.82 100,696.50 71,139.87 37,740.87 -

5 6 7
952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00
-430,920.00 -430,920.00 -430,920.00
521,640.00 521,640.00 521,640.00
-186,666.66 -186,666.66 -186,666.66
-42,857.14 -42,857.14 -42,857.14
292,116.20 292,116.20 292,116.20
-2,558.14 - -
289,558.06 292,116.20 292,116.20
-86,867.42 -87,634.86 -87,634.86
202,690.64 204,481.34 204,481.34

5 6 7
952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00
-430,920.00 -430,920.00 -430,920.00
521,640.00 521,640.00 521,640.00
-186,666.66 -186,666.66 -186,666.66
-42,857.14 -42,857.14 -42,857.14
292,116.20 292,116.20 292,116.20
-87,634.86 -87,634.86 -87,634.86
204,481.34 204,481.34 204,481.34

4 5 6 7
952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00 1,029,758.33
952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00
77,198.33
-705,221.52 -705,221.52 -705,221.52 -705,221.52
-430,920.00 -430,920.00 -430,920.00 -430,920.00
-186,666.66 -186,666.66 -186,666.66 -186,666.66
-87,634.86 -87,634.86 -87,634.86 -87,634.86

247,338.48 247,338.48 247,338.48 324,536.81

-40,299.01 -40,299.01
2,070.00 767.44
209,109.48 207,806.92 247,338.48 324,536.81
SIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DE VARIABLES
ILIZADAS
Gast oper
461,566.47
521,372.50
581,178.53
640,984.57
700,790.60
760,596.64
820,402.67
prestamo 150000
tasa 13%
Tim 1.024%
periodo meses 60
Cuota -3,358.25 40,299.01

periodo Saldo Inicial Amortizac interes cuota saldo final

1 150,000.00 1,822.72 1,535.53 3,358.25 148,177.28
2 148,177.28 1,841.38 1,516.87 3,358.25 146,335.89
3 146,335.89 1,860.23 1,498.02 3,358.25 144,475.66
4 144,475.66 1,879.28 1,478.97 3,358.25 142,596.39
5 142,596.39 1,898.51 1,459.74 3,358.25 140,697.87
6 140,697.87 1,917.95 1,440.30 3,358.25 138,779.92
7 138,779.92 1,937.58 1,420.67 3,358.25 136,842.34
8 136,842.34 1,957.42 1,400.83 3,358.25 134,884.92
9 134,884.92 1,977.45 1,380.80 3,358.25 132,907.47
10 132,907.47 1,997.70 1,360.55 3,358.25 130,909.77
11 130,909.77 2,018.15 1,340.10 3,358.25 128,891.63
12 128,891.63 2,038.81 1,319.44 3,358.25 126,852.82
13 126,852.82 2,059.68 1,298.57 3,358.25 124,793.14
14 124,793.14 2,080.76 1,277.49 3,358.25 122,712.38
15 122,712.38 2,102.06 1,256.19 3,358.25 120,610.32
16 120,610.32 2,123.58 1,234.67 3,358.25 118,486.73
17 118,486.73 2,145.32 1,212.93 3,358.25 116,341.41
18 116,341.41 2,167.28 1,190.97 3,358.25 114,174.13
19 114,174.13 2,189.47 1,168.78 3,358.25 111,984.66
20 111,984.66 2,211.88 1,146.37 3,358.25 109,772.78
21 109,772.78 2,234.52 1,123.73 3,358.25 107,538.26
22 107,538.26 2,257.40 1,100.85 3,358.25 105,280.86
23 105,280.86 2,280.51 1,077.74 3,358.25 103,000.36
24 103,000.36 2,303.85 1,054.40 3,358.25 100,696.50
25 100,696.50 2,327.44 1,030.81 3,358.25 98,369.07
26 98,369.07 2,351.26 1,006.99 3,358.25 96,017.81
27 96,017.81 2,375.33 982.92 3,358.25 93,642.47
28 93,642.47 2,399.65 958.60 3,358.25 91,242.83
29 91,242.83 2,424.21 934.04 3,358.25 88,818.62
30 88,818.62 2,449.03 909.22 3,358.25 86,369.59
31 86,369.59 2,474.10 884.15 3,358.25 83,895.49
32 83,895.49 2,499.43 858.83 3,358.25 81,396.06
33 81,396.06 2,525.01 833.24 3,358.25 78,871.05
34 78,871.05 2,550.86 807.39 3,358.25 76,320.19
35 76,320.19 2,576.97 781.28 3,358.25 73,743.22
36 73,743.22 2,603.35 754.90 3,358.25 71,139.87
37 71,139.87 2,630.00 728.25 3,358.25 68,509.86
38 68,509.86 2,656.93 701.32 3,358.25 65,852.94
39 65,852.94 2,684.12 674.13 3,358.25 63,168.81
40 63,168.81 2,711.60 646.65 3,358.25 60,457.21
41 60,457.21 2,739.36 618.89 3,358.25 57,717.85
42 57,717.85 2,767.40 590.85 3,358.25 54,950.45
43 54,950.45 2,795.73 562.52 3,358.25 52,154.72
44 52,154.72 2,824.35 533.90 3,358.25 49,330.37
45 49,330.37 2,853.26 504.99 3,358.25 46,477.11
46 46,477.11 2,882.47 475.78 3,358.25 43,594.64
47 43,594.64 2,911.98 446.27 3,358.25 40,682.66
48 40,682.66 2,941.79 416.46 3,358.25 37,740.87
49 37,740.87 2,971.90 386.35 3,358.25 34,768.97
50 34,768.97 3,002.33 355.92 3,358.25 31,766.64
51 31,766.64 3,033.06 325.19 3,358.25 28,733.58
52 28,733.58 3,064.11 294.14 3,358.25 25,669.47
53 25,669.47 3,095.48 262.77 3,358.25 22,573.99
54 22,573.99 3,127.16 231.09 3,358.25 19,446.83
55 19,446.83 3,159.18 199.07 3,358.25 16,287.65
56 16,287.65 3,191.52 166.73 3,358.25 13,096.14
57 13,096.14 3,224.19 134.06 3,358.25 9,871.95
58 9,871.95 3,257.19 101.06 3,358.25 6,614.76
59 6,614.76 3,290.54 67.71 3,358.25 3,324.22
60 3,324.22 3,324.22 34.03 3,358.25 0.00
150,000.00 51,495.03 201,495.03
17,151.82

14,142.69

10,742.37

6,900.01
2,558.14
INGRESOS Y GASTOS
AÑOS
0 1 2 3 4
Beneficios - 952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00 952,560.00
Costos -377,198.33 -705,221.52 -705,221.52 -705,221.52 -705,221.52

Beneficios actualizados - 828,313.04 720,272.21 626,323.66 544,629.27

Costos Actualizados -377,198.33 -613,236.10 -533,248.79 -463,694.60 -403,212.69
Indice B/C 1.21

FLIJO DE CAJA FINANCIERO

AÑOS
0 1 2 3 4
FLIUJO DE CAJA FINANCIERO -227,198.33 212,185.02 211,282.28 210,262.19 209,109.48
FLUJOS ACTUALIZADOS -227,198.33 184,508.72 159,759.76 138,250.80 119,559.02
SALDO A RECUPERAR -227,198.33 -42,689.62 117,070.14 255,320.94
AÑOS 3
MESES 10.84
 5 6 7 TOTAL
952,560.00 952,560.00 ### 6,745,118.33
-705,221.52 -705,221.52 -705,221.52 -5,313,748.97

473,590.67 411,817.97 387,124.30 3,992,071.13

-350,619.73 -304,886.72 -265,118.89 -3,311,215.86

5 6 7
207,806.92 247,338.48 324,536.81
103,316.76 106,931.25 122,005.41
Resumen del escenario
Valores actuales: optimista pesimista
Celdas cambiantes:
VENT 100% 108% 92%
PREC 100% 105% 95%
C.VARIABL 100% 95% 105%
C.FIJ 100% 93% 107%
Celdas de resultado:
$B$26 247,814.18 653,146.45 -123,021.71
Notas: La columna de valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantes
en el momento en que se creó el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes de
cada escenario se muestran en gris.
Analisis Estadistico

Probabilidad 50% 25% 25%

VPN. Escenario 247,814.18 653,146.45 -123,021.71
VPN. Probabilidad 123,907.09 163,286.61 -30,755.43
VPNE 256,438.27
Varianza 37,187,529.23 39,344,344,496.27 35,997,469,536.31 75,379,001,561.82
Desviacion Estándar 274,552.37

Intervalos Inferior Central Superior

I -18,114.09 256,438.27 530,990.64
II -292,666.46 256,438.27 805,543.00
II -567,218.82 256,438.27 1,080,095.37