abstract et propositions
en français vers le fin
Author:
Andy Ray Taylor
Country of Origin: UK
ray [at] theglobalcoolingproject.com
Address:
25 Hawthorn Avenue
Oxford
OX3 9JQ
UK +44 845 058 0532
Keywords
Global cooling, land-atmosphere, geoengineering, permaculture, famine, wetlands, clouds,
green water credits, rainwater harvesting, semi-arid
Abstract
This article is a review and cross-discipline synthesis with proposals for action to help
prevent global famine 2020-2040, partly through limiting global warming to ½C by 2050.
Given political realities, emissions reductions alone will limit not global warming to 2C by
2100, according to 9 out of 10 senior climate scientists. However, a combination of
emissions reductions and four natural albedo / heat transport approaches CAN limit global
warming to 2C by 2100 and to WELL below 1C by 2050.
The four approaches are (i) land-atmosphere interactions, including wetland conservation,
rainwater harvesting and permaculture, (ii) lighter (broadleaf) forests and crops, (iii) pale
roads/cool roofs and (iv) sea stratus amplification with saltwater. Geoff without this last one
(or something more effective but really horrible) we fry
This article will examine the potential of land-atmosphere interactions in greatest detail,
with specific attention to rainwater harvesting, which is already being promoted by the
IPCC and UNEP for adaptation and resilience.
To prevent dangerous warming, a Copenhagen Consensus is urgently needed, along with
a four continents research and implementation alliance, composed of existing institutions.
Green water credits (SEI) provide a funding option. WWF's LOAM approach offers a
participatory planning framework which can be applied on the landscape and decade
scales. UNEP has the respect and credibility to coordinate. LARI is a nascent network of
academics aiming to support implementation with targeted research.
Introduction - prevention of global famine
Paul Chefurka projects 100 million "excess" (famine etc) deaths annually from 2015-2050
with simplified petroleum price scenarios1. Many of the deaths will "appear" to be due to
conflict / failed states etc, but the underlying stressors will be poverty and shortage of food
and water.
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), predicts that global warming will be
responsible for a 16% decrease in agricultural gross domestic product globally by 2020. 2
Lobell et al3 predict that maize yields in Southern Africa will fall by 30% by 2030. Even the
summer heatwave of 2003 decreased European crop yields by 20-25%. With rising
populations and increased demands from China and India, the World Bank estimates that
global demand for food will rise by 50 per cent by 2030. John Beddington, Britain’s chief
scientist, warns of a “perfect storm” of food, water and energy shortages by 2030.4 REF>>
The IPCC warns that more than a billion people may face freshwater shortages by 2050.
On Tuesday 14th April, 2009, a UK newspaper5 published a poll of climate scientists who
attended the IPCC conference in Bonn :
IPCC projections have tended to focus on the year 2100, but global population is likely to
peak during 2040-2050, and there may be severe problems with global food supply as
early as 2025. (Many would say we have severe and worsening problems for low income
people already.) In southern Africa poverty and death rates are increasing and there are
already harvest problems because of reduced / variable rainfall. Focusing public and
political attention on food security and a 10-40 year time scale is more relevant for millions
/ billions in developing countries than a 100 year time scale and sea level rise. We can all
agree that enough to eat for everyone is important. There are also benefits for humanity's
prospects on the 100 year time scale using this approach. If we aren't addressing food
security and climate change successfully through 2020-2050, we are unlikely to live
through 2050-2100 famine free. Many of the global cooling approaches proposed in this
paper are also beneficial for food security and resilience.
The 100 year time scale has also been unfortunate in that gains from emissions reductions
in the Kyoto and UNFCCC processes have been worked out on the basis of 1 hundredth of
100 year cooling gains. Because methane, and refrigerants like HFC-134a (for AC in cars)
and HFC23 have short half lives (8 years and 20 years respectively) they score poorly over
a century. But precisely because their half lives are so short, their rapid phase down could
help to limit warming in the first half of this century much more effectively than CO2
reductions alone. They are "low hanging fruit". UK beef and dairy consumers please note.
The reluctance to address the real prospect of global famine, caused mainly by resource
depletion, has been around for some time. More than five years ago, David Pimentel of
Cornell University pointed out:
We can wring our hands at all this, or disagree and act at a political level with renewed
determination (and bravo to those who do), or accept it and say, "OK, so what then do we
do about it?" NGOs, meteorologists and oceanographers have rightly been wary of radical
geoengineering, but there are some less radical options, which could help attenuate global
warming, and also contribute to mitigation, adaptation and resilience. These are presented
below.
Two caveats:
1. This paper does not address economic justice, normal climate variability, soil
degradation, price rises in fertilizer caused by a steady decrease in phosphate production
globally since 19897, AIDS / TB / malaria - all factors which are at least as important in
food security, especially for low-income communities, as climate change.
2. The authors do not see these strategies as an alternative to greenhouse gas mitigation,
but a complement. It's no longer either or, but both and. The best hope is that cooling
strategies will "buy more time" for greenhouse gas mitigation to be achieved. A key aim
would be to prevent the Greenland ice sheet from melting.
Land-atmosphere interactions:
increase stratus and cumulo-nimbus cloud cover in semi-arid regions
Table 1: approaches to global cooling and the means by which they cool
Reduced emissions
Increased albedo
Reduced emissions
On the following pages I expand briefly on the first three of these strategies and at greater
length of my own area, land-atmosphere interactions.
Geoff without this first one (or something more effective but really horrible) we fry
"Since CO2 levels seem certain to rise for a long time, we think it vital to examine
geo-engineering schemes for stabilizing Earth's temperature for long enough to
allow alternative, clean forms of energy to be developed. We are examining one
scheme in collaborative research involving Universities of Manchester, Leeds,
"Edinburgh and (in USA) National Centre for Atmospheric Research, and Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory: lead scientists at these institutions, Tom Choularton,
Alan Gadian, Stephen Salter, John Latham, Phil Rasch, respectively.
"Our idea is to increase the reflectivity of shallow oceanic clouds by seeding them
with seawater particles to increase their droplet numbers: thereby producing global
cooling. Provisional results (mainly modelling) suggest the technique could hold
Earth's temperature constant for around 50 years, and that current values of Arctic
ice cover could be maintained over this period. Much more work is required on
technological questions and ramifications of possible deployment."
"To date, international efforts to mitigate climate change have focussed on reducing
emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy, transportation and agriculture sectors,
and on sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide in forests. Here, the potential to
complement these efforts by actions to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by
the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is
explored. ...... such efforts could amplify the overall planetary albedo enough to offset
the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic
greenhouse gases by as much as 30% or 0.76 W/m2 Terrestrial albedo amplification
may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development
and use of low emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain
essential to mitigate long-term climate change."
D. Land-atmosphere Interactions
The idea of using extensive rainwater harvesting as a global waring attenuation strategy
was first proposed by the hydrologist Michal Kravcik among other theories in innovative
writings on water16. A literature review collating the science of land-atmosphere
interactions to assess the feasibility of the rainwater harvesting attenuation idea was first
undertaken by Ray Taylor17.
The model results were confirmed in separate Earth Observation studies by Dr Sietse Los
and Dr Tim Jupp (personal correspondence). The EO data correspond very well with the
model results above, and show up additional regions of strong coupling in southern Africa,
southern Brazil, Madagascar, SE Asia and Australia.
Prof Roger Pielke snr has reviewed19 a swathe of articles examining land use change and
land-atmosphere interactions. His work in this field is extensive, and a search using Scirus
or Google Scholar and his name with the term "land use" will throw up many relevant
papers. Irrigation in central USA and deforestation/draining of wetlands in Florida have had
profound effects on temperature and rainfall20.
We propose that the results of the GLACE study and subsequent work on land-
atmosphere interactions be used to identify those parts of the planet where rainwater
harvesting and other SMIs (soil moisture interventions) are likely to lead to more formation
of stratus and cumulo-nimbus. Pilot studies need to be undertaken comparing existing
forested/vegetated zones with similar unforested zones, looking at the cloud cover and
rainfall during and after the normal rainy season months.
For the purpose of increasing the duration of the rainy season through land-atmosphere
interactions, almost any intervention that increases soil moisture (SMIs) or vegetation is
potentially useful. There follow a list of interventions which can support soil moisture
increase and vegetation increase:
● Rainwater harvesting
● Permaculture
● Conservation agriculture
● Desert reclamation
● Conventional irrigation
● Agro-forestry
Permaculture
Permaculture is a system of perennial agriculture which minimizes external inputs. A large
literature is available online. For a beautiful example of permaculture combined with
rainwater harvesting in Jordan, see "Behind Greening the Desert" on YouTube. It is hard to
be too positive about the human, environmental, ecological, social and economic
importance of Permaculture.
Permaculture economics
With the depletion of global phosphate reserves (peak production was in 1989 and
most high quality sources in Pacific islands are now gone), fertiliser prices are set to
rise inexorably. Permaculture and organic farming, which conserve existing soil
phosphate, are thus set to become increasingly important in countries without large
reserves of rock phosphate (USA, China, Brazil, Morocco/Western Sahara).
The FAO28 has reviewed the case for organic farming's financial and sustainable
role in food security on several continents.
Food & Trees for Africa (www.trees.co.za) is a medium-sized NGO based in
Zambia. Over the past 15 years, FTFA has implemented more than 1000
permaculture food gardens in impoverished communities. FTFA screens community
groups and the beneficiaries selected are those with high levels of mobilization,
organisation and accountability. One of its projects29 is financed by the South
African Social Investment Exchange (SASIX) which provides independent research,
evaluation and monitoring to ensure that projects meet a set of criteria, including the
ability to deliver measurable returns.
Agroforestry economics
This has been extensively researched and promoted by the FAO and ICRAF,
among others. A search using the term livelihoods at this website throws up masses
of results: www.worldagroforestry.org/af/publications
● data that supports the accurate choosing of interventions most likely to increase
cloud cover and rainfall
Naturally we would appreciate some funding for exchange of experience between teams
on different continents, and to support existing research teams, NGOs and governments
with LOAM and other aspects of research, training and implementation, particularly
rainwater harvesting technology and community participatory learning and action.
The Independent Newspaper asked 44 leading scientists whether they thought some form
of geoengineering is now necessary31. Their responses are well worth reading (see
endnotes for weblink) and there is a clear consensus that something "extra" is going to be
needed.
Here is a set of proposals that could genuinely help to limit warming to 2C, and have
helpful impacts within 20 years:
2. Act on other low-hanging carbon fruit: eg peatland and tropical forest protection. Any
agreement on REDD should include peatlands and wetlands. A separate financing
mechanism should be worked out for semi-arid nations and agriculture.
6. Rapidly research, assess and deploy the cooling strategies outlined in this article,
especially wetland conservation, reforestation and sea stratus amplification. Increase
research on less radical geoengineering strategies such as air capture of CO2 and direct
methods of preventing Greenland and Siberian ice melt.
7. Under the able leadership of Achim Steiner, UNEP has both competence and "clear
hands". His leadership in coordinating action on these "low-hanging fruit" would be very
appropriate. The Stockholm Environment Institute, with their strong involvement in
developing countries including Kenya and China, also have a lot to offer.
2. www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c
5. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7951838.stm
6. http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html
10. www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/what-can-we-do-to-
save-our-planet-1221097.htm
11. Vasishth, Ashwani. 2006. Getting Humans Back Into Nature: A Scale-
Hierarchic Ecosystem Approach To Integrative Ecological Planning. PhD
Dissertation, University of Suthern Calfornia, Los Angeles
15. McMillan, A. M.; Doughty, C. E.; Goulden, M.L. Land surface albedo in
forestry management and land use change - possible offsets or augmentation
to the radiative impact of carbon sequestration. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet.
Suppl., Abstract GC52A-10 GC52A-11
16. http://www.ludiaavoda.sk/en/?page_id=12
17. http://www.theglobalcoolingproject.com/media/GC_Science_dossier7.pdf
20. Roger A. Pielke Sr A new paradigm for assessing the role of agriculture in
the climate system and in climate change. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology 142 (2007) 234–254
22.. http://plantstress.com/Articles/drought_m/runoff_farming.pdf
23. Pp 8 ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/ah836e/ah836e00.pdf
Afforestation and Sustainable Forests as a Means to Combat Desertification
and also in ......
24. Yuan T., Fengmin L., Puhai L. Economic analysis of rainwater harvesting
and irrigation methods, with an example from China (2003) Agricultural Water
Management, 60(3),pp.217-226.
28. http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4137e/y4137e05.htm
29. http://www.sasix.co.za/projects/view/FS-NW-MAY-0063
30..http://www.panda.org/what_we_do/how_we_work/conservation/forests/pu
blications/?120980/Landscape-Outcome-Assessment-Methodology-LOAM-in-
Practice
31..http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/what-can-we-
do-to-save-our-planet-1221097.html
Résumé
La réduction des émissions seule ne permet pas de limiter le réchauffement climatique de
2°C, selon la majorité des scientifiques qui ont participé à la conférence 2009 de l’IPCC à
Bonn et ont répondus au journal anglais «The Guardian». Néanmoins, une combinaison
de réduction des émissions et quatre approches portant sur l’albédo et les transferts de
chaleur peut limiter le réchauffement climatique à 2°C.
Ces quatre approches sont (1) les interactions entre le sol et l’atmosphère, y compris la
protection des zones humides, la récolte des eaux de pluie et la permaculture, (2) des
forêts et des cultures utilisant des plantes à feuilles larges, (3) des routes et des toits de
couleur claire et (4) l’amplification des strates océaniques par le biais d’eaux salées.
Cet article examinera le potentiel des interactions sol/atmosphère en détails, avec une
attention toute particulière à la récolte des eaux de pluie, qui est déjà mise en avant par
l’IPCC et l’UNEP pour permettre de meilleurs adaptations et résistances au réchauffement
climatique.
1) Agir immédiatement sur les gaz à effet de serre à courte durée de vie, comme le
réfrigérant HFC23. La Chine aura besoin de transferts de technologie et de financement,
afin de remplacer les sites de production de HFC22/23 qu’elle a du construire pour
remplacer sa production de CFC, ainsi que le Brésil et l’Afrique du Sud. Une coordination
doit être établie dans ce sens avec l’organisation du protocole de Montréal. Également
prioritaire : la réduction des émissions de méthane provenant des fuites, des déchets et
des activités agricoles. Si les clathrates sont utilisés comme nouvelles sources de
carburant fossile, il est indispensable que la capture du CO2 et son stockage sécurisé
soient obligatoires.
2) Agir sur les possibilités les plus simples en ce qui concerne le carbone: la protection
des zones marécageuses et des forêts tropicales. REDD+ doit comprendre ces zones. Un
accord séparé doit être élaboré pour les zones semi-arides et pour l’agriculture, plutôt que
de complexifier REDD+.
5) Lancer des projets de recherche pilotes sur les potentiels des forêts au Sénégal, au
Niger, au Burkina Faso, en Corée du Sud, en Australie, aux Etats-Unis, etc…
7) Sous la direction d’Achim Steiner, l’UNEP est l’organisation qui possède les meilleures
compétences et la meilleure réputation. Il serait donc tout à fait approprié qu’il coordonne
l’action sur ces objectifs simples. Le «Stockholm Environment Institute», depuis longtemps
impliqué dans les pays en voie de développement comme le Kenya et la Chine, a
également beaucoup à proposer.
2 Cline,W. R. 2007. Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country FAO
reports / Washington,D.C.: Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for
International Economics. Quoted in Joachim von Braun, The world food situation
http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/fpr/pr18.pdf
3 David B. Lobell et al: Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in
2030 Science 1 February 2008: Vol. 319. no. 5863, pp. 607 - 610
4 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7951838.stm
5 www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c
1 David Pimentel et al: Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?
Environment, Development and Sustainability Volume 1, Number 1 / March, 1999
http://ron-griffin.tamu.edu/ag/others/pimentelEtal.pdf
7 Fertiliser prices in India:
http://www.navdanya.org/articles/acquaculture.htm
10www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/what-can-we-do-to-save-our-
planet-1221097.htm
12 Akbari, H, Pomerantz, M, Taha, H: Cool surfaces and shade trees to reduce energy use
and improve air quality in urban areas Solar Energy Vol. 70, no. 3, pp. 295-310. 2001.
Quoted in: www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/16/white-paint-carbon-emissions-
climate
16 http://www.ludiaavoda.sk/en/?page_id=12
17 http://www.theglobalcoolingproject.com/media/GC_Science_dossier7.pdf
18 Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation, Randal D. Koster,
Peter Cox, Christopher M. Taylor et al (20 August 2004)
Science 305 (5687), 1138.
20 Roger A. Pielke Sr A new paradigm for assessing the role of agriculture in the climate
system and in climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 142 (2007) 234–254
22 http://plantstress.com/Articles/drought_m/runoff_farming.pdf
23 Pp 8 ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/ah836e/ah836e00.pdf
Afforestation and Sustainable Forests as a Means to Combat Desertification
and also in ......
24 Yuan T., Fengmin L., Puhai L. Economic analysis of rainwater harvesting and irrigation
methods, with an example from China (2003) Agricultural Water Management,
60(3),pp.217-226.
28 http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4137e/y4137e05.htm
29 http://www.sasix.co.za/projects/view/FS-NW-MAY-0063
30 http://www.panda.org/what_we_do/how_we_work/conservation/forests/publications/?12
0980/Landscape-Outcome-Assessment-Methodology-LOAM-in-Practice
31..http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/what-can-we-do-to-save-
our-planet-1221097.html