Artefact 2.

1
Rationale written from a Mathematical Unit of Work on Probability
Probability and statistics, commonly known as chance in a classroom, is a vital component of the Mathematical
Victorian Curriculum which is taught from Foundation all the way through Primary school. This literature will
look at research as to the key understanding of chance, the most common misconceptions that happen in a
classroom, and how to incorporate teaching strategies that support students’ learning and solidify their
understanding.

Key Knowledge/ Strategies/Ways or working and thinking mathematically

Bryant & Nunes (2012) discuss the skills required in probability in four cognitive demands. They are:
understanding randomness, working out sample space, comparing and quantifying probabilities and
understanding correlation. While Jones & Thornton (2005) also discuss the importance of each of these areas,
they do not classify them the same way, instead seeing them all as part of the process of understanding
chance. Researchers agree that students who are able to understand the basic ideas of these key domains are
able to reason the ideas of chance and create a foundational understanding (Bryant & Nunes, 2012; Jones &
Thorton, 2005). Bryant & Nunes (2012) and Zhu & Gigerenzer (2006) both agree on the importance of being
able to understand that often chance is found through a process of reasoning and identifying sample spaces.
Each of the articles explore the language of chance, such as 0-1, 50/50 or percentages, and the importance of
ensuring students understand how each of these relate to chance scenarios. Shtulman (2009) identifies that
once a student has a strong grasp on the language they are more likely to be able to apply those concepts
through practice as they continue to develop their own understanding of chance. Researchers have identified
that children are able to identify conditional probability from a young age, however, they cannot reason and
put that into scenarios (Sobel, Tenenbaum and Gopnik, 2004; Sobel and Kirkham, 2007; Xu and Tenenbaum,
2007).

Misconceptions
Moore (1990) suggests that because of the mathematical concepts used in probability, this can cause conflict
with children's intuitive understanding of randomness. Both Bryant & Nunes (2012) and Jones & Thornton
(2005) agree that the main misconceptions in a classroom happen when the distinction between independent
and conditional probability sequences are not made clear (Zhu and Gigerenzer, 2006); that is, the idea that a
particular flip of a coin is dependent on the previous flip of the coin. Bryant & Nunes (2012) further explain
that sample spaces are often taught in a way which means that students are unable to use the notion of
sample space in order to work out the correct probability. Researchers Jones & Thorton (2005) suggest in
order to address these misconceptions, it is vital that students work in a progressive model; building from a
foundational understanding with teaching made explicit in these areas.

Teaching Strategies
Shtulman (2009) identifies that children have a basic concept of what is possible or not possible (magic). This
sense of prior knowledge is critical for teachers to take into consideration as they begin to teach Specialised
Content Knowledge of chance. Relating to this idea, Thornton (2005) and Sobel and Kirkham, 2007 mention
the importance of allowing students opportunities to develop reasoning through connected ideas with
everyday scenarios. This is further emphasised in Bryant & Nunes (2012) where they noted that when using
scenarios that students are unfamiliar with, students are less likely to understand the concepts which are
related to chance. Both these articles state the importance of using concrete materials to help students see
how probability and chance works. However, Bryant & Nunes (2012) further state that children understand
the idea of ‘fair’ at an early age, so it is helpful to relate the idea of fairness to chance to aid students’
understanding.

Critique of the Curriculum

The Victorian Curriculum demonstrates that understanding Statistics and Probability is vital, and as a result have
implemented it as a learning area from Foundation (Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority, 2017). In
the early years, the focus is on introducing the language of chance, that is, scenarios which are likely and unlikely,
through to the concepts of certain and impossible (VCAA, 2017). In the upper years, the focus of language looks
at integrating the ideas of percentages, fractions, and ratios as part of the curriculum (VCAA, 2017). This supports
the literature that states that without understanding the language, children will not be able to properly be able
to grasp the concept of probability (Bryant & Nunes, 2012; Thorton, 2005). It also identifies the need to use
"everyday events" (VCAA, 2017, Level 2), which further concretes the concepts of chance.

While the Victorian Curriculum explores ways of creating and collating data, it does not look at explicitly teaching
ways to create sample spaces and using that data in order to provide statistical evidence of the probability of an
event occurring. This would most certainly be suitable to teach to upper primary school students. Without a
concrete understanding of how this works, Bryant & Nunes (2012) state that these misconceptions go well into
secondary school with students not being able to use mathematical reasoning to determine the likelihood of an
event occurring.

Conclusion
Researchers conclude that introducing ideas of probability to young children is the most beneficial way of
building on their knowledge of chance. It is vital that as probability is taught in classrooms it is not taught in an
abstract way, but instead in a way that relates to concrete materials or events and scenarios that children can
relate to. The Victorian Curriculum outlines the basic foundation to understanding chance. However, they could
demonstrate improvement by devising strategies to explore sample space more explicit.