This report analyses how India’s current absolute valuations stack up against the last 16 years of history. Straight forward valuation multiples can be deceiving
and may entice you in or keep you out of the markets at wrong times. To take care of this issue I have recalculated current as well as historical valuations by
assuming normalized (or sustainable) profitability across all years. This is done at sectoral level so that we might observe the extent of relative over/under
valuation and make some intelligent choices for portfolio positioning going forward. Risk with normalization is that the timing for the profitability to revert to
sustainable level is uncertain. The longer it takes to revert, the higher would be the risk to valuation in situations when absolute valuations are high.
Total Universe: The starting universe for this analysis comprises all the companies (872) in the BSE 500, BSE Midcap and BSE Small Cap indices. After excluding
companies who do not have 15 years of listed history, we are left with 557 companies. This universe covers about 80% of the total listed current market
capitalization. The chosen period FY02 – 17 covers years between two troughs in India’s economic cycle (not stock market cycles) and I believe covers a wide
range of business environments representative of average conditions.
Mid/Small Cap Universe: The valuation as well as other parameters are weighted averages and hence are significantly influenced by large companies. To remove
this effect, in addition to presenting the outcomes for all the 553 companies, I am also presenting similar analysis for non-large cap companies. This is done by
excluding not only the top 10% of the largest companies but also removing outliers such as Suzlon, Jet Airways, Piramal Enterprises, Tata Teleservices and Tata
Steel who have had abnormally large one-off profits/losses skewing overall valuations. Post these exclusions, we are left with 494 companies (average market
capitalization of INR 5578 crs or $870 mn) totaling more than 30% of the above market capitalization.
Same analysis is done for the Total and Mid/Small Cap Universes and hence you would find two sets of tables. First the summary tables are presented for both
followed by detailed tables.
Investors need to connect the dots by looking at the absolute valuations, current state of the economic cycle (not the stock market cycle), leverage levels,
sustainable profitability and other factors. Though I have provided summary tables, it would be helpful to look at the detailed tables to have better perspective
about historical levels/trends. I do provide my views on valuations through the quarterly memos, but for me macro valuation is just good to know. Crucial is
company level valuation. Portfolio cash levels are driven by the availability of investible (combination of quality as well as price) businesses at any point in time.
Detailed Tables (for Total Universe as well as Mid/Small Cap Universe) include:
Parameter (ttm Current Average FY02 – 16 Comment (please refer to detailed tables for year/sector wise numbers)
or FY17) Range
PEx (ttm*) 28.9 17.0 7.9 – 28.9 Current multiple is at historical highs (previous 25.5 in Jan’08). Key difference is that net margins are
currently at 6.2% vs 9.9% reached in FY08 and overall average of 7.3%. Excludes Financial Sector (FS).
Normalized PEx 21.2 19.5 10.3 – 43.3 Since profitability is cyclical, valuations have to be viewed from a sustainable profitability
(ttm) perspective rather than using just current profitability. For normalizing, we have assumed that the
sustainable ROE going forward is 13.6% vs current level of 10.0%. Using ROE of 13.6% based on
FY09-17 average which is lower than overall average of 16.7%. We are being conservative given
non-inflationary environment globally and believing that FY05-08 was an extraordinary period
which is unlikely to recur in the foreseeable future. Lowest normalized PEx level in FY03 and highest
in Jan’08 when absolute PEx as well as ROE were at highest levels. Hence post FY08 we experienced
double whammy of multiple as well as ROE contraction. Excludes FS.
PBx (ttm) 2.8 2.3 1.2 – 4.9 Current multiple is above average but way below 4.9 reached in Jan’08, though this is the highest
level since then. PB is a much stable valuation metric vs PE and adjusts for cyclicality in profitability.
EV/EBITDA (ttm) 13.1 9.2 4.9 – 16.9 This is high considering EBITDA margins have also moved above historical average. Excludes FS.
ROE % 10.0 16.7 9.3 – 23.1 Current level is just above the lowest.
ROCE % 10.5 13.3 8.7 – 18.3 Current level is close to the lowest. Excludes FS.
PAT % 6.2 7.3 4.6 – 9.9 Excludes FS. This has improved significantly from the lows of 4.6% reached in FY15. Further
improvement of earnings now rely heavily on topline growth.
EBITDA % 16.8 16.6 13.5 – 19.1 Excludes FS. Average of 16.6% and high of 19.1% reached in FY08
COGS % 51.9 56.6 51.9 – 60.3 Excludes FS. This is the lowest level in 15 years. Lower commodity prices have helped. Indication
that pricing power is returning as companies are able to retain profits vs passing on to the customer.
Interest/Sales % 3.5 2.5 1.6 – 3.7 Excludes FS. Lowest level in FY06 and highest in FY02. Currently second highest.
EBIDTA/Interest 4.86 7.09 4.44 – 11.15 Excludes FS. Currently near lowest level, though have improved from since FY15.
D/Ex 0.92 0.80 0.58 – 1.01 Excludes FS. Currently close to highest level of leverage. Lowest in FY05.
Asset Turns 0.98 1.23 0.98 – 1.47 Excludes FS. Currently at lowest level. Highest in FY05.
(Sales/CE)
Capacity 65-70 78 65 – 100 Broad approximation assuming peak utilization of 100% in FY05 when asset turns were highest. This
Utilization % is just a rough derivation using asset turns.
Sales Growth % 5.6 15.0 (2.1) – 29.6 Highest in FY08; lowest in FY16. Note the divergence in FY08-17 CAGR of 10.7% vs 21.4% of FY02-08.
EBDTA Growth % 11.9 15.0 (0.1) – 36.2 Highest in FY07; lowest in FY09. Note the divergence in FY08-15 CAGR of 9.5% vs 24.1% of FY02-08.
PAT Growth % 27.0 15.6 (19.1) – 56.4 Highest in FY03; lowest in FY09. Note the divergence in FY08-15 CAGR of 5.1% vs 32.0% of FY02-08.
Equity Growth% 8.4 16.6 6.5 – 36.4 Highest in FY08; lowest in FY15. This is not adjusted for new fund raise or dividend payouts. Note the
divergence in FY08-17 CAGR of 13.6 vs 21.4% during FY02-08.
*Note: ttm is trailing twelve months as of January 25, 2018
Samit Vartak CFA, CIO, SageOne Investment Advisors LLP
@SamitVartak Page 2 of 25
SUMMARY FOR MID/SMALL CAP UNIVERSE
Parameter (ttm Current Average FY02 – 15 Comment (please refer to detailed tables for year/sector wise numbers)
or FY15) Range
PEx (ttm*) 52.9 18.0 6.3 – 52.9 Current multiple is highest ever and almost double that reached in Jan’08. One has to careful in
concluding when looking at averages or wtd averages, as few loss making companies can drive down
earnings for the entire universe thereby exaggerating the multiples.
Normalized PEx 28.6 19.5 8.1 – 57.4 Since profitability is cyclical, valuations have to be viewed from a sustainable profitability
(ttm) perspective rather than using just current profitability. For normalizing, we have assumed that the
sustainable ROE going forward is 10.0% vs current level of 5.4%. Using ROE of 10.0% based on FY09-
17 average which is lower than overall average of 13.4%. We are being conservative given non-
inflationary environment globally and believing that FY05-08 was an extraordinary period which is
unlikely to recur in the foreseeable future. Lowest normalized PEx level in FY03 and highest in Jan’08
when absolute PEx as well as ROE were at highest levels. Hence post FY08 we experienced double
whammy of multiple as well as ROE contraction. Current levels are 50% above average and
something to worry about. Excludes FS.
PBx (ttm) 2.6 1.8 0.8 – 4.7 Current multiple is way above average but nearly half of 4.7 reached in Jan’08. To justify such
valuations, ROE has to rise above typical expected returns from equities.
EV/EBITDA (ttm) 16.6 9.3 4.5 – 18.2 Premium to the total universe is > 26% which is the highest. Considering that the valuation for the
total universe itself is high, these are unsustainable levels. Excludes FS.
ROE % 5.4 13.4 4.3 – 21.2 ROE has picked up since making the low in FY16.
ROCE % 8.2 11.0 7.6 – 16.6 Excludes FS.
PAT % 3.5 5.0 2.8 – 8.2 Excludes FS. Net margins have picked up since making the low of 2.8% in FY15.
EBITDA % 13.7 13.8 11.8 – 15.8 Excludes FS. Lowest level in FY13 and highest in FY08.
COGS % 53.0 56.8 52.7 – 60.0 Excludes FS. Lower commodity prices have helped maintain GM near highs. Indication that pricing
power is returning as companies are able to retain profits vs passing on to the customer.
Interest/Sales % 4.9 3.3 2.0 – 4.9 Excludes FS. Highest levels currently and doesn’t bode well for capex.
EBIDTA/Interest 2.83 4.64 2.79 – 7.40 Excludes FS. Currently near lowest level and sign of worry.
D/Ex 1.14 1.02 0.74 – 1.34 Excludes FS. Current level has dropped since peaking in FY15. Lowest in FY05.
Asset Turns 0.99 1.20 0.97 – 1.58 Excludes FS. Currently near lowest level. Highest in FY05.
(Sales/CE)
Capacity 70-75 86 73 – 100 Broad approximation assuming peak utilization of 100% in FY05 when asset turns were highest.
Utilization %
Sales Growth % 4.3 15.1 3.8 – 30.4 Highest in FY07; lowest in FY10.
EBDTA Growth % 6.8 14.1 (2.1) – 42.1 Highest in FY07; lowest in FY16. Excludes FS
PAT Growth % 19.4 15.4 (24.4) – 89.4 Highest in FY04; lowest in FY09. Excludes FS
Equity Growth% 4.9 15.8 4.0 – 38.8 Highest in FY08; lowest in FY16. This is not adjusted for new fund raise or dividend payouts.
Samit Vartak CFA, CIO, SageOne Investment Advisors LLP
@SamitVartak Page 3 of 25
DETAILED VALUATION TABLES
For Finance sector, I have presented detailed analysis starting page 8. I have divided the sector into three groups: PSU (public) Banks, Private Banks and NBFCs
(non-banking finance companies). Provisioning for NPAs in these companies have a significant impact on their profits and they skew the ratios and hence I have
left finance sector out of parameters wherever applicable.
Current multiple is the highest level not only in terms of absolute number, but also in terms of the premium (85% currently as against at par) vs total universe
Weighted PEx by Sectors
TTM
Row Labels (1/25/18) FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 Jan 8, '08 FY07 FY06 FY05 FY04 FY03 FY02 Avg
Agriculture 22.1 17.0 18.2 21.6 17.9 9.1 12.9 11.5 12.6 4.6 9.9 19.8 9.4 11.9 9.2 10.2 12.3 8.6 12.9
Consumption 62.7 32.8 26.1 30.3 22.1 18.7 19.1 19.0 19.7 13.4 13.8 19.5 18.3 24.1 23.2 15.4 14.8 16.2 22.9
Energy 18.3 19.7 17.8 32.5 14.8 26.3 24.2 15.9 18.9 15.0 25.1 35.6 12.1 17.6 9.8 11.6 6.6 10.5 17.5
Finance
Industrial/Engg 51.7 42.5 34.5 51.6 33.1 22.5 18.0 15.6 20.6 8.9 18.6 51.3 18.3 22.8 14.0 11.1 6.8 10.6 23.6
Materials -VE -VE -VE 25.0 16.0 11.3 11.8 14.1 14.8 7.5 12.3 18.9 8.3 10.7 6.3 7.9 14.6 (22.6) 9.9
Pharma/Chemicals/Life Sciences 42.6 33.1 26.2 28.3 19.8 15.7 16.1 17.9 18.6 10.5 13.0 20.7 16.8 20.9 16.6 11.9 7.4 10.5 19.2
Technology/Telecom/Media 177.6 30.9 22.4 31.7 17.3 43.6 35.1 24.9 27.3 27.6 27.8 35.4 47.0 (157.2) 42.2 (50.2) 31.0 9.1 22.8
Transportation/Logistics/Supplych 41.5 28.4 23.5 35.1 23.5 24.2 31.8 34.7 60.1 21.0 33.7 63.2 12.0 8.6 5.7 7.8 5.6 5.8 23.7
Grand Total 52.9 36.3 30.4 24.6 16.3 13.2 13.9 14.6 16.5 8.7 15.6 27.5 12.8 15.8 9.7 9.8 6.3 8.9 18.0
Multiples are calculated as of year end and not an average for the year. Averages might be different if calculated across all days.
For normalizing, we have assumed that the sustainable ROE going forward is 13.6% vs current level of 10.0%. Using ROE of 13.6% based on FY09-17 average which
is lower than overall average of 16.7%. We are being conservative given non-inflationary environment globally and believing that FY05-08 was an extraordinary
period which is unlikely to recur in the foreseeable future. Lowest normalized PEx level in FY03 and highest in Jan’08 when absolute PEx as well as ROE were at
highest levels. Hence post FY08 we experienced double whammy of multiple as well as ROE contraction.
Normalized PEx by Sectors
TTM
Row Labels (1/25/18) FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 Jan 8, '08 FY07 FY06 FY05 FY04 FY03 Avg
Agriculture 23.5 19.5 12.7 14.8 9.0 8.6 14.3 14.4 14.1 7.2 12.9 25.8 11.4 15.3 11.4 9.8 4.5 12.7
Consumption 38.3 28.9 29.8 32.8 28.5 28.4 26.2 23.4 19.4 14.2 22.3 27.5 23.6 30.4 19.9 20.0 15.3 25.1
Energy 15.1 12.0 9.6 10.5 10.5 10.8 11.9 15.9 18.1 14.3 24.1 34.7 18.1 19.2 15.4 15.2 7.2 14.2
Finance
Industrial/Engg 36.6 30.7 25.4 30.7 19.1 17.2 19.6 27.5 33.4 18.5 59.6 134.2 54.2 58.0 27.2 19.5 9.5 30.4
Materials 13.9 15.4 -VE 10.4 10.7 10.2 14.0 23.1 32.2 13.1 35.1 52.7 25.0 30.9 26.6 21.5 9.3 19.4
Pharma/Chemicals/Life Sciences 28.4 24.0 25.2 29.9 19.9 17.9 17.0 19.6 21.6 11.9 20.4 26.8 25.2 31.3 23.2 19.7 12.1 21.7
Technology/Telecom/Media 35.2 17.6 22.0 22.9 19.9 18.1 19.8 23.0 24.7 18.5 35.3 45.8 54.8 47.6 34.1 24.2 14.8 27.0
Transportation/Logistics/Supplych 23.7 21.5 17.7 22.3 15.7 13.8 19.4 26.6 31.3 15.6 28.3 44.0 20.1 24.5 18.3 19.5 5.9 20.3
Grand Total 21.2 16.8 14.9 20.7 16.0 16.2 17.1 20.7 23.5 15.0 28.3 43.3 25.5 27.5 19.4 18.5 10.3 19.5
Green are top two undervalued and Red are top two overvalued sectors compared to historical average normalized valuations.
For normalizing, we have assumed that the sustainable ROE going forward is 10.0% vs current level of 5.4%. Using ROE of 10.0% based on FY09-17 average which
is lower than overall average of 13.4%. We are being conservative given non-inflationary environment globally and believing that FY05-08 was an extraordinary
period which is unlikely to recur in the foreseeable future. Lowest normalized PEx level in FY03 and highest in Jan’08 when absolute PEx as well as ROE were at
highest levels. Hence post FY08 we experienced double whammy of multiple as well as ROE contraction. Current levels are 50% above average and something to
worry about.
Normalized PEx by Sectors
TTM
Row Labels (1/25/18) FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 Jan 8, '08 FY07 FY06 FY05 FY04 FY03 Avg
Agriculture 22.2 17.1 11.6 15.1 9.3 8.9 14.7 14.7 14.5 7.4 13.2 26.5 11.7 15.7 11.7 10.0 4.6 12.6
Consumption 53.1 27.8 26.6 33.5 23.3 23.5 22.4 20.3 16.4 8.6 20.5 29.0 22.9 28.6 17.9 11.2 7.4 22.7
Energy 17.0 18.4 13.2 15.6 13.6 13.8 19.4 24.8 32.8 19.8 52.0 73.6 24.4 29.7 26.1 33.4 13.9 23.0
Finance
Industrial/Engg 41.1 33.7 26.5 28.8 17.2 15.8 17.9 24.3 30.4 14.5 58.7 162.1 55.0 53.3 28.5 19.0 9.8 29.7
Materials -VE -VE -VE 12.3 11.5 11.0 15.4 23.9 34.7 13.6 35.4 54.4 27.4 29.8 27.2 23.5 11.0 21.3
Pharma/Chemicals/Life Sciences 42.8 33.2 27.6 28.1 17.7 18.3 17.4 18.3 18.0 8.6 21.0 33.3 24.7 31.4 26.7 17.2 9.4 22.5
Technology/Telecom/Media NM 32.4 30.8 35.6 26.0 21.8 24.0 24.4 30.2 18.6 37.0 47.1 44.3 36.3 19.6 13.9 6.4 26.8
Transportation/Logistics/Supplych 41.0 28.0 24.5 29.9 17.0 15.2 31.0 47.3 58.2 30.6 68.9 129.4 24.2 21.7 18.6 17.8 7.9 30.1
Grand Total 28.6 19.6 13.0 18.0 13.5 12.8 15.9 21.2 24.8 12.2 32.6 57.4 26.0 27.7 20.4 17.1 8.1 19.5
Green are top two undervalued and Red are top two overvalued sectors compared to historical average normalized valuations.
Samit Vartak CFA, CIO, SageOne Investment Advisors LLP
@SamitVartak Page 5 of 25
PBx for Total Universe:
Weighted PBx by Sectors
TTM
Row Labels (1/25/18) FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 Jan 8, '08 FY07 FY06 FY05 FY04 FY03 FY02 Avg
Agriculture 3.4 2.8 1.9 2.2 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.8 3.0 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.6 1.8
Consumption 7.2 6.4 6.6 7.2 6.3 6.2 5.6 5.6 4.2 3.0 4.6 5.9 5.0 6.3 4.3 4.6 3.4 4.3 5.3
Energy 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.7 2.8 3.9 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 1.7
Finance 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.0 1.9 3.3 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.6 1.5
Industrial/Engg 3.7 3.1 2.6 3.2 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.7 3.2 1.8 5.0 8.7 4.9 5.2 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.9 2.8
Materials 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.3 3.3 1.4 3.3 5.1 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.0 0.9 1.9
Pharma/Chemicals/Life Sciences 4.4 4.2 4.4 5.2 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 2.1 3.4 4.6 4.2 5.2 4.0 3.4 2.1 2.7 3.6
Technology/Telecom/Media 3.7 3.0 3.6 3.8 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.9 2.8 5.4 7.3 8.1 7.4 5.5 4.4 2.6 3.3 4.2
Transportation/Logistics/Supplych 3.8 3.6 2.7 3.6 2.3 2.1 2.9 3.9 4.7 2.4 4.2 6.7 3.0 3.6 2.6 2.9 0.9 1.1 3.0
Grand Total 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.8 1.7 3.2 4.9 3.0 3.2 2.3 2.1 1.2 1.2 2.3
Multiples are calculated as of year end and not an average for the year. Averages might be different if calculated across all days.
Gross NPAs are at the highest levels and 2/3rd of that haven’t been provided for until March 2016. High growth was achieved during FY07 - FY09 and FY11 –
FY12 (look at the growth tables on the following pages) and we see the results back ended with negative ROA now. In lending business, growth is the easiest
aspect and every time investors pay up for growth not worrying about the consequences years later. Valuations have to be done by looking at ROEs across a
business cycle rather than just looking at ROEs during the growth years. Look at the PBx and ROEs for high growth years.
Profit & Loss (Common Size by
Assets) Mar-17 Mar-16 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06 Mar-05 Mar-04 Mar-03
Interest Income 7.2% 7.8% 8.1% 8.3% 8.5% 8.5% 7.5% 7.5% 8.1% 7.9% 7.4% 7.3% 7.5% 8.0% 8.8%
Interest Expense 5.0% 5.5% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9% 5.7% 4.7% 5.1% 5.7% 5.5% 4.6% 4.2% 4.3% 4.8% 5.7%
Net Int Inc 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1%
Other Inc 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 2.1% 1.8%
Total Income 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 4.4% 4.8% 5.3% 4.9%
OPEX (Incl Provisions) 3.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%
PBT -0.2% -0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5%
Taxes 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
ROA -0.1% -0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0%
Assets/Equity (Leverage) 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.1 17.1 17.6 18.3 18.2 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.8 20.1 21.9
ROE TTM -1.8% -2.5% 8.3% 9.3% 13.6% 15.8% 16.7% 17.3% 17.8% 17.7% 16.3% 15.7% 18.6% 25.1% 22.5%
Price / Book Value(x) 0.88 0.78 0.54 0.76 0.66 0.79 0.99 1.50 1.27 0.68 1.22 1.04 1.26 1.18 1.15 0.56
Median GNPA % 12.53 9.40 4.96 4.18 3.21 2.53 1.98 1.74 1.71 1.92 2.38 3.72 5.01 7.40 8.20
Median NNPA % 7.81 6.35 2.93 2.48 2.16 1.47 0.98 1.02 0.72 0.72 0.76 0.87 1.59 2.58 4.29
When looked at the return ratios over the entire period, it makes sense that private banks get a significant premium in PBx vs their PSU piers, though the premium
is currently at the highest level. Net Interest Income % (NIM) has been increasing as cost of funds is coming down and GNPAs seem to be under control so far.
Profit & Loss (Common Size by
Assets) Mar-17 Mar-16 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06 Mar-05 Mar-04 Mar-03
Interest Income 7.9% 8.5% 8.5% 8.6% 8.6% 8.3% 7.2% 7.3% 8.5% 8.2% 7.5% 6.9% 6.7% 7.8% 8.8%
Interest Expense 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.2% 4.2% 4.4% 5.7% 5.6% 5.0% 4.2% 4.1% 5.3% 6.7%
Net Int Inc 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.1%
Other Inc 2.9% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.7% 4.1% 3.9% 4.3% 3.7% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9%
Total Income 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1% 6.7% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% 6.2% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.0%
OPEX (Incl Provisions) 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 4.7% 5.0% 5.3% 5.5% 4.9% 4.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.6%
PBT 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% 1.4%
Taxes 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
ROA 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 1.2%
Assets/Equity (Leverage) 9.6 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.0 10.5 10.7 11.2 12.7 14.5 13.5 14.8 15.5 15.3
ROE TTM 12.1% 14.6% 16.7% 17.2% 17.5% 16.3% 14.9% 13.5% 11.4% 12.8% 14.2% 15.1% 15.3% 22.4% 18.7%
P/B x 3.16 2.62 2.36 2.93 2.64 2.30 2.30 2.72 2.55 1.18 2.39 3.23 2.60 2.31 2.16 1.17
Median GNPA % 2.64 1.97 1.85 1.68 1.33 1.18 1.20 1.72 2.09 1.92 2.89 4.14 6.30 7.99 9.47
Median NNPA % 1.37 1.12 0.94 0.76 0.64 0.39 0.33 0.54 1.03 0.93 1.11 1.08 2.21 2.81 5.08
ROA and ROE have been trending down and when compared to the return numbers, PBx seems to be near highs. Leverage (7 x) also has been increasing since
FY09. Given that ROE = ROA x Leverage, ROE should be increasing with leverage, but that’s not the case over the last few years.
Profit & Loss (Common Size as a %
of Avg Assets) Mar-17 Mar-16 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06 Mar-05 Mar-04 Mar-03
Interest Income 13.5% 13.6% 13.9% 13.9% 14.2% 14.1% 14.1% 15.2% 13.4% 25.4% 18.8% 15.6% 11.2% 13.8% 14.8%
Interest Expense 6.4% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.0% 6.1% 6.2% 7.0% 6.3% 5.7% 5.3% 5.5% 6.2% 7.6%
Net Int Inc 7.1% 6.8% 6.9% 6.7% 6.9% 7.1% 8.0% 8.9% 6.4% 19.1% 13.1% 10.3% 5.8% 7.6% 7.2%
Other Inc 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7%
Total Income 7.4% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 7.1% 7.3% 8.3% 9.4% 6.8% 19.8% 13.5% 10.6% 6.1% 8.4% 7.8%
OPEX (Incl Provisions) 4.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.6% 3.9% 4.4% 5.5% 3.1% 15.3% 9.5% 7.1% 2.9% 6.9% 4.3%
PBT 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.2% 1.5% 3.5%
Taxes 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
ROA 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.4% 0.7% 2.7%
Assets/Equity (Leverage) 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.3 7.0 7.7 7.7 6.9 6.4
ROE TTM 13.8% 14.5% 15.6% 16.4% 16.9% 15.1% 17.0% 16.9% 16.6% 19.5% 20.6% 21.3% 18.7% 4.7% 17.3%
Price / Book Value(x) 2.87 2.42 1.83 2.31 1.72 1.74 1.79 2.31 2.35 1.33 3.01 2.24 2.35 1.33 1.17 0.57
Median GNPA % 1.54 1.30 1.13 1.10 0.91 0.75 0.81 1.20 1.07 1.18 NM NM NM NM NM
Median NNPA % 1.69 1.59 0.68 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.38 0.71 0.75 0.64 NM NM NM NM NM