by
Theodore P. Lianos*
Department of Economics
ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS
May 9, 2005
Athens
Introduction
This paper presents the recent labor migration flows in the Balkan Countries among
these countries and from these countries to others. It also reports some
preliminary finding from a survey in Bosnia-Herzegovina regarding some effects
of migration of the professional status of migrants, their qualifications, their
incomes earned, their remittances back home and the use of these remittances.
2
less pressure for work in the labor market. It addition, one may mention
that a substantial flow of remittances may appreciate the domestic
currency and thus reduce export increase imports.
From this brief description of the possible positive and negative effects of migration,
it appears that in theory no general conclusion can be drawn regarding the effects of
migration on the long run growth of the sending economy. Probably, the net effect
may depend on how migration and remittances are combined with the other factors
that enhance or limit the prospects of growth. It seems, therefore, that the effects of
migration may differ by country, depending on the prospects of growth, the
institutional framework and government policies.
The growth rates of GDP of the Balcan countries for the period 1990-2003 are
presented on Table 1. The obvious characteristics of these growth rates is their erratic
behaviour. For all countries the growth rates differ greatly from year to year. This is
due to two main factors. First, to the disorganization of the economic structure that
followed the fall of communist regimes and the need for the reconstruction of these
economics within a new, largerly unknown to them, institutional framework. Second,
to the internal conflicts that followed the fall of the old regimes.
However, during the last five years these economies seem to have achieved a
normal way of economic functioning, and their rates of growth appear to vary within
reasonable limits. For the seven countries appearing on Table 1, the (unweighted)
average growth rate in each of the last three years at approximately 4%.
The growth prospects of these countries may differ. One would expect that
Bulgaria and Romania, which will soon become member of the European Union, and
Croatia, a little later, will be, ceteris paribus, in a better position to exploit the
possibilities that will be opened to them and grow at a steady and high rate. Of
course, it is not implied that all Balkan countries will growth at the same rate or that
the existing regional imbalances will disappear. In fact, it is possible that regional
imbalances may become more pronounced as some countries or regions may become
poles of attraction at the cost of others. However, it is expected that the entire area
will benefit when the general economic environment of the Balkan region improves as
a result of growth of some, if not all, countries in the area.
3
Table 1
Growth Rates of GDP of Balkan Countries
4
Migration in the Balkan Countries
In analysing migration flows among the Balkan countries and also between the
Balkans and other countries one is faced with rather serious problems regarding the
availability and nature of statistical data. First, in most cases it is not clear whether an
individual reported as migrant is a long term mover, a temporary mover, a seasonal
worker, someone on the move to another destination, a returning migrant, a member
of a family already in country with no intention to work, a student who may or may
not be partially employed, a refugee, member of the staff of a foreign company in the
country, etc. Second, the available data are fragmentary in the sense of being
available for some years for some countries and for different years for other countries.
Third, the method for collecting of migration data, i.e. the definitions and the sources,
may differ by country. Fourth, the accuracy of the data differ by country. For
example, the number of emigrants from country i to country j in a certain year is often
very different from the number of immigrants to country j from country i in the same
year. Obviously, the reporting systems of the various countries do not have the same
reliability. Fifth and very important for the Balkan area, the reported data usually
refer to legal migrants based, for example, on residence or work permits. However,
the extent of illegal migration is very large, at least for some countries and for some
years, and therefore the estimates presented on the following tables are
underestimates.
The problems mentioned above do not render the available data useless. By
combining migration flows and stocks for various years and countries some
conclusions can be derived regarding the main labor mobility tendencies in the Balkan
countries.
5
(i). Migration in the Balkan Area
Table 2 shows the net migration rates for the years 2000-2003 and also for the
period 1989-2002. It appears that the Balkan area has lost approximated two and a
half million people after the collapse of the communist regimes. During the last four
years 2000-2003, the net migration rates differ among countries. Albania and
Bulgaria have negative and high rates. The net migration rates of Bosnia-
Herzegovina and Croatia are declining very quickly between 2000 and 2003
indicating that these migration flows are related to internal conflict of the earlier
years, and as the situation settles the migration flows will diminish or even disappear.
6
Table 2
Migration, Population and Income in the Balkan Area
Net-Migration Rates, 2000-2003
Net Migration Between 1989-2002 Population Ths GDP Per Capita (d)
Country 2000 2001 2002 2003
Ths Percent 2000 2003 Current $, 2003
Albania -10.36 -3.69 -1.46 -1.39 -709 -22.3 3113 3169 1915
Bosnia-
25.92 8.91 2.97 0.32 n.a n.a. 3977 4140 1613
Herzegovina
Bulgaria -5.06 -4.9 -4.74 -4.58 -689 -7.7 8170 7824 2533
Croatia 5.42 13.37 9.72 1.61 -314 -6.6 4446 4456 6398
FYROM -5.66 -1.54 -1.49 -1.46 -46 -2.4 2026 2049 2225
Romania -0.17 +0.02 -0.07 -0.54 -663 -2.9 22435 22200 2550
Serbia-
-1.9(a) -3.38 -1.38 -182 -1.7 10637 8104 1843
Montenegro
Total -2603 54804 51962
7
(ii). Migration Among the Balkan Countries
In the Balkan area, Greece is the only country that, after 1990, has become an
important destination for migrants from Albania, primarily, and to a much lesser
extent from Bulgaria and Romania. According to the 2001 Census 1 of population, the
stock of migrants that has been accumulated over the decade of 1990 in Greece is 762
ths people and includes 438 ths Albanians, 35 ths Bulgarians and 22 ths Romanians. It
is estimated that 12,5% of the Albanian labor force and 14% of the Albanian
population are in Greece. The stock of all immigrants to Greece correspond to 9.5%
of its labor force and to 7.5 of its population. By any standards, these percentage are
high for both countries. Due to proximity and common borders, immigration to
Greece involves, to a substantial extent, seasonal and circular movements the size of
which cannot be measured.
The other migration flows within the Balkan area are very small and should
not have any economic significance for the sending or receiving countries (See
Appendix Table 1). The flows among Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia-
Montenegro are, in all likelihood, the results of the civil conflict in Former Yugoslavia
and are not expected to last. The practically non existing migration flows should not
be surprising, given that these countries are not much different economically and that
there are much better opportunities for economic improvement in the surrounding
countries of the EU.
It has already been mentioned that the existing statistical data on migration
flows from and to the Balkan countries are fragmentary with missing values by
country and year and by substantial differences by source. However, some basic
trends can be seen from the available data. From Tables 3,4 and 5 of the Appendix, it
appears that Germany is the most preferred country as a place of destination for
migrants from the Balkan countries. This seems natural given the past huge flows of
1
The census is taken in March 21, that is before the seasonal demand for labor reaches a pick. The
peak season for seasonal employment in Tourism, Construction and Agriculture is late spring and
summer. Thus the Census count is probably an underestimation of the average stock of migrants over
the year.
8
migration from Former Yugoslavia to (West) Germany and the contacts that have been
established in the meantime between those that have migrated and stayed in Germany
and their relatives and friends in the new countries of Former Yugoslavia. In the
present period (after 1990) some new countries appear to have become places of
destination of substantial immigration from the Balkan countries. As mentioned
above Greece has (according to the 2001 Census of Population) a stock of 438 ths
Albanians 35 ths Bulgarians and 22 ths Romanians. Italy has also become a country
of destination with 107,5ths immigrants from Albania, 66.2 ths from Romania, 41.5
ths from Serbia-Montenegro and 15.9 ths from the Former Yugoslavian Republic of
Macedonia, for the 1997-2001 period. Smaller but still significant migration flows are
directed to Austria and Hungary. During the period 1997-2001, Austria has received
35.5 ths immigrants from Serbia-Montenegro 18.9 ths from Croatia and 17.1 ths from
Bosnia. Hungary has received 36.3 ths immigrants from Romania and 7.6 ths from
Serbia and Montenegro. These are the gross out-migration flows. The net migration
flows are, of course, smaller and vary by country as can be seen from tables 3, 4 and 5
of the Appendix.
Despite the fragmentary nature and the rather low quality statistical data, the
following conclusion can be drawn. There are two counties from which substantial
migration flows emanate i.e. Albania and Romania. The flows from Albania are
directed mainly to Greece and Italy whereas the flows from Romania are directed
mainly to Italy, Germany, Hungary and Austria. These are flows that have been
developed since 1990. There are important differences between these two countries.
Albania is a small country with the second lowest per capita income in the area and an
unemployment rate of 17%, and experiences no substantial return migration, at least
there are no indications pointing to a return flow. Romania is the most populous
country in the area with an unemployment rate of 8% and good prospects of growth,
as it is expected to be a member of the European Union in 2007 (its growth rate in
2003 is 4,5%). Looking at the same statistics from the point of view of the receiving
countries, it appears that Greece, Italy and Germany are the main destinations for
migrants from the Balkan countries whereas Austria and Hungary are becoming
significant poles of attraction.
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(iv) Summary and Conclusion
Despite the lack of adequate data, some general conclusions can be drawn
regarding migration within the Balkan countries and also migration flows to and from
these countries. Regarding the within the Balkans labor movement, Greece is clearly
the only country receiving significant numbers of immigrants from Albania, which is
the major emigration country, from Bulgaria and from Romania. It is hard to make a
judgment for Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina as it is difficult to know to what extent
the in and out flows of migrants represent economic mobility and to what extent they
represent residual effects of the civil conflict. Regarding the out of the Balkans labor
mobility the main receiving countries are Italy, Germany Austria and Hungary, with
Italy receiving mainly Albanian and secondarily Romanian emigrants.
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Some Preliminary Results form a Bosnia – Herzegovina Survey
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Table 3
Sector of Employment Before and After Migration
Before After
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total
1. Agriculture 41 0 1 8 0 14 2 1 3 1 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 90 166
2. Fishing 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
3. Mining 0 0 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 12
4. Manufacturing 14 0 0 5.7 0 9 1 5 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 0 40 135
5. Electricity, Gas, Water 0 0 0 2 7 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 23
6. Construction 6 1 3 4 0 53 1 2 2 0 0 5 0 0 1 1 0 51 130
7. Trade, Repairs 2 0 0 6 0 2 17 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 11 45
8. Hotels+Restaurants 0 0 0 3 0 2 2 21 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 37
9.Transportk Comm. 3 0 0 4 0 10 2 2 23 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 11 58
10.Financial Services 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 7 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 18
11. Real Estate 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
12. Public Adm. 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 17 0 0 0 1 0 7 30
13. Eduction 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 0 3 9
14.Health, Social Work 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 10 1 0 0 0 17
15. Other Services 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 8
16. Private House bold 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 4
17. Extra-Territorial Org. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
18. Other 7 0 0 16 4 14 13 8 10 0 1 12 5 0 1 1 1 74 167
Note : Pearson’s X2 statistic is X2=2575.6 with 272 df. and it is significant at 1%.
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Table 4
Professional Status Before and After Migration
Before
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Total
1.Senior Official 10 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 15
Manager
2. Professional 4 55 3 8 3 2 6 0 4 0 0 4 6 95
3. Technician 4 3 22 6 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 7 5 57
4. Clerk 0 6 1 28 4 0 5 1 3 0 0 9 7 64
5..Service or Sales 1 2 0 2 21 1 7 3 3 0 0 10 5 55
Worker
6. Stilled Agric. 1 1 0 0 0 4 2 1 5 0 0 1 1 16
Worker
7. Craft worker 1 2 0 1 4 2 50 1 3 0 0 16 8 88
and Related
8.Plant or 6 6 2 1 3 0 6 15 4 0 0 5 7 55
Machine Operator
9.Unskilled 0 1 0 0 6 2 2 8 52 0 0 41 18 130
Worker
10. Armed Forces 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2
11. Student 1 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 12
12. Unemployed 6 7 3 1 2 0 12 5 6 0 1 32 10 85
13. Other 3 2 3 3 4 2 6 3 11 0 0 9 25 71
37 88 38 54 50 13 97 42 93 0 2 139 92 745
Note : Pearson’s X2 statistic is X2=1233.5 with 132 df. and it is significant at 1%.
Table 5
Additional Qualifications
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Table 6
Distributions of Average Monthly Income Earned (USD)
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The distribution of average remittances is shown on Table 7. It is also skewed
to the left. The mean value of this distribution is 328 USD. From the average values
of incomes and remittances it is estimated that approximately 30% of income earned
is remitted.
Table 7
Distribution of Aggregate amount of Remittances during last trip abroad
Amount (USD) Number Percent
<100 257 45.1
1000 – 2000 45 8.0
2000 – 3000 44 7.8
3000 – 4000 28 4.9
4000 – 6000 43 7.6
6000 – 8000 60 10.6
8000 – 10000 38 6.7
1000 – 20000 27 4.8
20000 – 30000 12 2.1
30000 – 60000 6 1.1
>60000 6 1.1
Sum 566 100
Table 8
Uses of Remittances
Remittances Where Used for Number Percent
Savings 156 27.8
Investment in Business 20 3.6
15
Education of children 125 22.3
Food and Clothing 170 30.3
Medical Expenses 8 1.4
Education 6 1.1
Buying Property 9 1.6
Home Repair 39 7.0
Wedding, Celebration, Funeral - -
Buying Land 10 1.8
Buying a Car 2 0.4
Starting a new Business 3 0.5
Charity 2 0.4
Other 11 2.0
Sum 561 100
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Appendix Table 1
Intra-Balkan Migration Flows
Source: UN Statistics Division Demographic Database, Statistical Office of the Republic Macedonia, Central Bureau of Statistics of Croatia,
National Commission for Statistics of Romania. For Romania 2000-2003, the data were supplied by D. Gheorghiou SOPEMS correspondent.
Note: * Indicates the country reporting emigrant and immigrant figures. In cells where there are two numbers, the number below shows the
reverse flow. For example, according to Romanian estimates, during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998 49 people in total have moved from
Romania to Bulgaria whereas 56 people in total have moved from Bulgaria to Romania.
17
Appendix Table 2.
Bosnia +Herzegovina
Bulgaria Out 64.0 54.0 66.0
In
Net 0.8 4.2 -0.3
Croatia Out 18.5 7.6 14.3 6.0 7.5 11.8 6.5
In 52.3 51.8 32.9 29.4 24.4 20.4 18.5
Net 33.8 44.2 18.6 23.4 16.9 8.6 11.9
Fyrom Out 0.2 0.5 0.1
In 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.3
Net
Greece Out
In
Net 12.2 33.9 32.1
Romania Out 19.9 17.5 12.6 14.8 9.9 8.2 16.0
In 8.4 11.3 10.5 12.4 11.0 6.6 3.9
Net -13.3 -5.6 -2.1 -2.4 1.1 -1.6 -12.1
Serbia + Montenegro Out 12.69 164.4
In 117.4 214.2
Net -9.5 49.8
Note: Net Migration figures do not necessarily equal the difference between Out
and In flows. Some signs do not agree with those of Table 1 e.g. Serbia and
Montenegro. Empty cells mean non available data.
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Appendix Tables 3
To CZ DK DE EL ES FR IE IT CY HU NL AT PT SI SK FI SE UK
From
Albania
IM 40 20 1500 110 10 50
EM
Bosnia+Herzeg
IM 80 210 10570 480 10 120 60 1130
Bulgaria
IM 730 150 13230 360 440 120 50 170
Croatia
IM 150 30 12990 170 10 210 150
EM 10 1450 10 20 20 1110 160 10 10
FYROM
IM 200 110 3950 170 30 10 150
Greece
IM 60 260 15910 4420 1080 10 70 60
Romania
IM 80 610 4440 20 5360 180 10 150 390
EM 100 - 1310 60 170 230 120 1320 20 900 70 290 10 120 40 50
Serbia+Monten
IM 320 180 25770 260 900 10 140 220 2070
19
Appendix Table 4
AUT CAN CZEH FRANCE GERM HUNG ITALY NOR SWEDEN SWITZ USA
Albania
107.5
Bosnia+Herzegovina
To 17.1 48.8 6.3 73.8
From 15.2 8.4 0.6 242.5 1.6
Bulgaria
0.5
Croatia
To 18.9 60.7
From 14.7 74.9
Fyrom
To 4.1 15.9
From 1.6 12.8
Greece
To 84.0 1.3
From 99.2 0.3
Romania
To 7.6 0.2 5.4 93.7 36.3 66.2
From 4.8 77.2 2.1
Serbia+Mon
To 35.5 0.8 4.0 240.2 7.6 41.5 8.3 38.0
From 24.1 284.5 7.1
Source: OECD, Trends in International Migration, various years.
20
Appendix Table 5
Source: D. Gheorghiou
21