Demography
and
Popula8on
Growth
Abhishek
Tiwari
Fall
2010
Warm‐up
Ques8ons
How
many
is
too
many,
i.e.
when
is
an
area
overpopulated?
What
do
we
mean
by
popula8on
composi8on
/
structure
and
why
is
it
important?
For
example,
rising
incomes
tend
to
reduce
birth
rates,
though
this
has
not
been
the
case
in
many
countries
in
the
middle
east.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Demographic
and
Social
Policy
/
Planning
• Demographic
changes
both
impel
policy
(and
social
changes)
and
are
the
result
of
policy
changes.
For
example,
China’s
1‐Child
policy
has
helped
reduce
popula8on
growth
in
China,
but
also
created
a
large
surplus
of
unmarried
males.
The
government
will
likely
have
to
take
several
steps
to
address
this
issue
(e.g.
ease
1‐child
policy,
allow
for
selec8ve
migra8on
of
women
from
other
countries,
etc.)
Also,
in
the
US,
demographic
trends
are
used
for:
• Congressional
appor8onment
and
distric8ng
• Provision
of
public
services
• Educa8onal
planning
• Assessing
environmental
impacts
For
example:
X
number
of
people
live
in
Northridge.
Rates
How
o_en
a
par8cular
demographic
event
occurrs
in
a
popula8on
of
interest
within
a
specific
period
of
8me.
Alterna8vely,
the
frequency
of
a
demographic
event
in
a
given
8me
period
divided
by
the
number
of
people
who
were
“at
risk”
for
that
demographic
event
in
the
8me
period
of
interest.
For
example:
The
job
placement
rate
of
CSU
Northridge
can
be
calculated
by
dividing
the
number
of
gradua8ng
students
in
a
given
year
who
are
looking
for
employment
and
find
work
by
the
total
number
of
graduates
who
are
looking
for
employment:
#
of
students
finding
full
8me
employment
a_er
gradua8on
/
Total
#
of
graduates
who
are
looking
for
employment
Ra8os
• The
rela8onship
of
one
popula8on
group
to
another
or
to
the
en8re
popula8on.
We
can
express
ra8os
of
counts,
rates,
or
percentages.
Ra8os
can
also
help
us
compare
two
groups
and
help
us
evaluate
the
rela8ve
risk
of
a
par8cular
group
vis‐à‐vis
another.
Rates
and
Ra8o
Example
Using
our
earlier
example:
1000
student
graduates
of
CSUN
in
2009
were
looking
for
work.
Of
these
400
were
women.
Of
the
women
graduates,
360
found
work
and
270
of
the
men
graduates
found
work.
What
is
the
overall
job
placement
rate
for
both
men
and
women;
and
what
is
ra8o
of
the
job
placement
rate
for
women
to
men
(and
what
can
we
infer
about
the
likelihood
of
finding
work
as
a
func8on
of
gender).
Total
#
finding
work
=
270
+
360
=
630
Job
placement
rate=630/100=63%
Total
#
of
women
who
found
work/
Total
women
looking
for
work
360/400=90%
Total
#
of
men
who
found
work
/
Total
men
looking
for
work:
270/600=45%
Ra8o
of
job
placement
rate
(Men
to
Women):
90
to
45
(2:1).
Interpreta8on:
Women
were
2
8mes
more
likely
to
find
work.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
WORLD
POPULATION
FACTS
Trends
in
Urbaniza8on,
by
Region
Urban Population
Percent
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
World
Popula8on
Growth
Through
Billions
History
12
11
2100
10
9 Modern
Old Age
8 Iron Middle
Stone Bronze
New Stone Age Age Age Ages
7 Age
6 2000 Future
4 1975
3
1950
2
1900
1 Black Death — The Plague 1800
1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
World
Popula8on
Growth,
in
Billions
Number of years to add each billion (year)
130 (1930)
30 (1960)
15 (1975)
12 (1987)
12 (1999)
14 (2013)
14 (2027)
21 (2048)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World
Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Projected
Popula8on
Change,
by
Country
Percent Population Change, 2005-2050
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
The
Classic
Demographic
Transi8on
Stages
Birth
and
Death
Rates,
Worldwide
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
Natural Increase
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
2009,
Selected
Indicators
(World)
• Total
Popula8on
–
6.8
billion
• Total
fer8lity
rate
–
2.6
• IMR
–
46
per
1000
• 48%
are
living
on
less
than
$2
/
day
• Younger
popula8ons
will
become
increasingly
concentrated
in
Africa
and
Asia
(1950
–
Asia
(54%),
Africa
(9%);
Asia
(53%),
Africa
(29%)
• %
of
popula8on
<
15
=
27%
and
%
of
pop
>
54
=
8
• Dependency
ra8o
=
(27+8)/
65
~
1
to
2
Demographic
Indicators
• Popula8on
/
Density
• Popula8on
growth
–
fer8lity,
mortality,
immigra8on
• Age
structure
• Race
/
Ethnicity
composi8on
• Household
/
Family
size,
household
composi8on,
living
arrangement
• Educa8onal
achievement
(e.g.
%
with
HS
degree
or
BA/
BS)
• Economic
indicators
(several)
–
GDP,
Per
capita,
Poverty
rate,
Occupa8ons
/
Sectors,
Household
Income
Other
Demographic
indicators
• Tenure
(homeownership,
renters)
• Marital
status
• Languages
• %
Homeless
• Health
status
• Crime
• Job
sectors
and
employment
• Travel
behavior
• Tells
us
whether
the
popula8on
is
young,
aging
or
somewhere
in
between.
Important implica8ons for economic vitality of a region (Why?)
• Propor8on
of
popula8on
that
is
of
working
age
(those
between
16
and
65)
• Age
dependency
ra8o
–
ra8o
of
working
age
to
non
working
age
(e.g.
6
people
of
working
age
to
1
non
working
)
decreasing
ra8o
can
be
problema8c
(as
there
are
fewer
working
age
to
support
a
non
working
popula8on.
Countries
with
decreasing
fer8lity
and
increasing
life
expectancy
(e.g.
Japan)
have
shrinking
dependency
ra8os,
crea8ng
a
huge
public
policy
dilemma
• Other
implica8ons
Example:
Too
many
young,
unemployed
people
may
lead
to
more
crime
Age
Distribu8on
of
the
World’s
Popula8on
Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
Millions
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Fer8lity
The total fertility rate is the average number of children that would be born
to a woman by the time she ended her childbearing years (15-49).
The TFR assumes that the woman would conform to the age-specific
fertility rates for a given year.
Fer8lity
• General
fer)lity
rate:
#
of
live
births
/
#
of
Women
between
15‐49
X
K
• Age
specific
fer)lity
rate:
#
of
live
birth
to
women
between
___
/
#
of
women
between
_____
X
K
• Crude Birth Rate: Total # of births / Total Popula8on X K
• Fer8lity
rates
are
declining
everywhere.
Why?
• What
are
the
implica8ons
of
low
fer8lity
rates?
10
Places
With
the
Lowest
Total
Fer8lity
Worldwide
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Diverging
Trends
in
Fer8lity
Reduc8on
Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Mortality
Mortality
• Mortality
Rate:
#
of
deaths
/
Total
Popula8on
X
K
• Disease
Specific
Mortality
Rate:
#
of
deaths
from
a
disease
/
Total
Pop
with
Disease
X
K
• Infant
mortality
rates:
#
of
infant
deaths
(<1)
/
Total
Live
births
X
K
• Maternal
mortality
ra)o:
#
of
maternal
deaths
/
Total
#
of
live
births
X
K
Note:
K
is
a
constant
such
as
10,000
or
100,000.
We
mul8ply
by
K
to
standardize
our
calcula8ons
so
rates
can
be
express
in
terms
of
..per
10,000
or
per
100,000
Life
Expectancy
• Life
expectancy:
average
number
of
addi8onal
years
a
person
could
expect
to
live
if
the
age‐specific
death
rates
for
a
given
year
prevailed
for
the
rest
of
his/her
life.
• Life
expectancies
are
possible
for
every
age
For
example,
a
person
at
20
would
have
a
certain
life
expectancy
(i.e.
addi8onal
number
of
years
they
can
be
expected
to
live
• Life
expectancy
at
birth
(LEB)
is
a
commonly
reported
sta8s8c
(in
the
US
LEB
is
around
79.
This
means
that
a
baby
born
today
is
expected
to
live
8ll
79)
Trends
in
Life
Expectancy,
by
Region
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Adult
Literacy,
by
Region
Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004
Percent
Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to
be dependents.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries
1997-2004*
Physicians per 1,000 people
* Data are for the most recent year available for each country.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.
Changes
in
Household
Structure
during
the
last
century
Households
• Smaller
families
• Erosion
of
joint
families
• Increase
in
headship
rates
among
young
adults
• Increase
in
single‐person
households
• Greater
propor8on
of
two‐income
households
• More
discre8onary
income
• Greater
gender
equality
and
more
female
headed
households
Marriage
• (before)
Union
of
two
families
(now)
union
of
two
individuals
• Decline
in
Polygamy
• Reduc8on
in
domes8c
violence
• Increase
in
cohabita8on
• Delay
in
marriage
age
• Delay
in
age
when
having
first
child
• Increase
in
divorce,
ini8ated
by
both
genders
Children
• As
families
moved
away
from
agriculture
the
value
of
addi8onal
children
has
declined
• As
the
produc8ve
capacity
of
children
has
reduced,
as
they
no
longer
can
be
used
as
labor,
it
does
not
make
sense
to
have
more
children
• Addi8onally,
reduc8ons
in
infant
and
child
mortality
obviate
the
need
to
have
‘surplus’
kids
Women
• Fer8lity
change
• Increasing
age
for
first
marriage
(min.
marriage
age
in
many
countries)
• Increasing
age
for
first
birth
• Increasing
labor/economic
par8cipa8on
• Increasing
literacy
levels
• Greater
number
of
female
headed
households
• Marriage
dissolu8on
Elderly
• Increase
in
number
of
elderly
and
propor8on
of
elderly
(i.e.
the
elderly
represent
an
increasing
propor8on
of
the
popula8on)
• Greater
morbidity
burden
due
to
age
• Increasing
strain
on
working
age
popula8on
to
care
for
the
elderly,
as
there
are
more
elderly
per
working
age
person
• Reduc8on
in
quality
and
quan8ty
of
care
provided
for
the
elderly,
as
younger
people
move
away,
and
there
are
less
younger
people
due
to
reduc8ons
in
fer8lity.
Urbaniza8on
Impacts
• Encourage
nuclea8on
of
households
are
large
households
are
untenable,
par8cularly
among
low‐income
groups
with
limited
housing
op8ons
in
an
urban
area
• Increases
exposure
to
pollu8on,
violence,
stress,
unhealthy
foods
• Increases
exposure
to
non‐tradi8onal
ways
of
living
Case
Study
Japan
Women
in
Japanese
Society
• Japanese
women’s
par8cipa8on
in
poli8cs
and
the
economy
(though
to
a
lesser
extent)
is
not
tantamount
to
men
• Japan
ranks
43rd
in
the
UNDP
Gender
Empowerment
measures,
though
its
11th
in
the
overall
human
development
index
• As
more
women
have
joined
the
workforce
there
has
been
a
decline
in
marriage
and
birth
rates
Post‐war
family
system
• Housewife
role
for
women
• Monogamously
married
with
2‐3
children
• Gendered
division
of
labor
• Provided
the
founda8on
on
which
post‐war
economic
growth
flourished
Family
system
today
• Family
forma8on
is
not
necessarily
seen
as
an
impera8ve
• Survey
show
that
the
idea
of
roman8c
love
in
marriage
is
important;
many
Japanese
indicate
they
are
wai8ng
for
an
ideal
partner
• Since
Japanese
only
have
children
when
married
(unlike
other
post‐industrial
countries),
and
marriage
rates
are
low,
their
TRF
is
very
low
• Mothers
do
not
encourage
their
daughters
to
follow
in
their
footsteps
Declining
TFR
• Declines
in
fer8lity
mirror
that
of
other
post‐
industrial
countries
• However,
Japan
has
low
out‐of‐wedlock
births
• 1970
–
2.1
• 1995
–
1.42
• 2004
–
1.29
A
high
stakes
game
• High
demand
from
young
mothers
for
coopera8on
from
their
husbands
for
child
rearing
• Japanese
who
have
high
expecta8ons
for
their
children’s
educa8on
tend
to
postpone
or
abandon
the
idea
of
having
children
• Family
forma8on
is
a
high
stakes
project
that
people
only
undertake
if
assured
of
a
high
change
of
success
(contrast
with
US)
Ques8ons
to
consider
Do
women
bear
a
double
burden
in
a
modern
capitalist
system,
as
they
are
expected
to
be
individual
economic
agents
(just
like
men)
and
also
shoulder
the
reproduc8ve
burden?
Should
the
Japanese
encourage
out‐of‐wedlock
birth?
Should
those
who
choose
not
to
have
kids
pay
a
premium
to
those
who
have
kids?
What
about
paying
people
to
have
and
raise
children?
IMMIGRATION
• Age/Sex specific birth rates
• Age/Sex specific net migra8on rates
Example:
Pop
increase
between
2000‐2001
will
be
the
same
as
the
average
annual
increase
in
the
years
between
1990‐2000.
The
annual
geometric
growth
rate
(r)
can
be
calculated
as:
r
=
(Pl
/
Pb)1/y
–
1
The
popula8on
projec8on
for
the
target
year
can
be
calculated
as:
Pt
=
Pl
(1
+
r)z
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Exponen8al
Expansion
Assumes
that
popula8on
grow
con8nuously
,
i.e.
con8nuous
compounding
(as
opposed
to
at
specific
intervals).
To
compute
the
growth
rate
(r)
we
use
the
following:
r
=
[ln
(Pl
/
Pb)]
/
y
r
=
[ln
(5500
/
4500)]
/
10
=
.0200671
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Exponen8al
Expansion
To
predict
the
popula8on
at
the
target
year
(Pt)
we
use
the
following:
Pt
=
Plerz
Pt
(2010)
=
5500
*
e(.0200671)(5)
=
6080