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Policy Delphi




generate the strongest possible opposing views on the potential resolutions of a major policy issue

the decision maker is not interested in

having a group generate his decision.

Policy Delphi a tool for the analysis of policy

issues and not a

mechanism for making a decision


a small committee of around ten individuals with sufficient time to consider and explore the issues

some assurance that the privacy of their respective remarks will be respected outside of the committee room

To ensure that all possible options have been put on the table for consideration Objectives To
To ensure that all
possible options
have been put
on the table for
To estimate the
impact and
consequences of
any particular
To examine and
estimate the
acceptability of
any particular


Communication Process

(1) Formulation of the issues.

(4) Exploring and

obtaining the reasons for disagreements.

(2) Exposing the options.

(5) Evaluating the underlying reasons.

(3) Determining

initial positions on

the issues.

(6) Reevaluating

the options.

Formulation of the issues

What is the issue that really should be under consideration? How should it be stated?

Exposing the options

Given the issue, what are the policy options available?

Determining initial positions on the


Which are the ones everyone already agrees upon and which are the unimportant ones to be discarded?

Which are the ones exhibiting disagreement among the respondents?

Exploring and obtaining the reasons

for disagreements

What underlying assumptions, views, or facts are being used by the individuals to support their respective positions?

Evaluating the underlying reasons

How does the group view the separate arguments used to defend various positions and how do they compare to one another on a relative basis?

Reevaluating the options

Reevaluation is based upon the views of the underlying "evidence" and the assessment of its relevance to each position taken.

Procedures to maintain 3-4 rounds


Procedures to maintain 3-4 rounds procedures
Rating Scale Desirability etc Feasibility Scale Confidence Importance
Rating Scale


Effectiveness or Benefits

Desirability • Effectiveness or Benefits



Feasibility • Practically


Priority or Relevance

Importance • Priority or Relevance


In Validity of Argument or Premise

Confidence • In Validity of Argument or Premise

Guidelines (1)

The number of

professionals acting as

the design-monitor team must be at least two so that one can check the other. 1. knowledgeable ,

2. editorial talents.

Develop the first-round questionnaire. A factual summary of background

material and multiple sets

of scenarios are usually supplied

Each questionnaire

should be pretested on

coworkers who have not

been involved in the design

The question "if A and B are true" should be broken into two separate items. The exception is statements of the form "if

A then Ii',"

Guidelines (2)

it is a good idea to show

respondents some examples

of the form you would like comments to take, in terms of being short, specific, and singular in nature

If there is a trade-off between the ease of summarizing the results and the case of the respondents in providing the answers and understanding the results, the choice should

always favor the respondent

The respondents should be

allowed to suggest changes in

the wording of items which should then be introduced as new items

When asking for rev otes on

an item, the individual

respondent should be shown his original vote.

The respondents must be convinced that they are participating in an exercise

which involves a peer group




The overall objective of

the study was to obtain a

rank ordered list ofNational Priorities or Areas of Major Concern

to the Nation, areas

which couldcreate major public problems in the seventies and eighties

and should receive

attention by U. S. leadership

(1) division in U. S. society;

(2) international affairs; (3) education; (4) urban areas; (5) law and order; (6) science, technology, management of change;

(7) economy; (8) resources; (9) values; (10) population


Joel Goodman of the

College of Marine Studies,

University of Delaware, conducted a policy-type Delphi on the Coastal Zone Land Use Planning Issue.

This involved a large number of people representing government business, public groups, and

specialists. This exercise was

done in 1971 and 1972


respondent characteristics;

respondent attitudes;

arguments pro and con;

general policy and budget items;

specific policy issues;

specific programs; strategic issues

Thank you FRS

Thank you