PRESENTATION
April 2018
Create Wealth
1
Rule No 1: Never lose money
Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1.
~ Warren Buffet
3M Stock
Selection Approach
The company be
Size of the opportunity The company should
consistently profitable
should be huge to provide reasonable growth
and should be among the
generate significant opportunity at reasonable
leading players in the
investment returns Margin of Safety
industry
LEADING TO MULTIBAGGER RETURNS 5
12
4th largest bed sheet exporter to USA & 13th largest globally Market share of ~8%
Capacity expansion from 36 to 68 mn meters in last 5 years Entry into Tier 2&3 markets with sub premium product
M2 and further expanding to 90 mn meters to improve its market share
Market Focus on improving value chain by entering premium bed Launched new products to reach mass consumer levels
Share
linen segment leading to improved operating margins Strong parentage means access to new technology to
No major investment in backward integration – leading to offer world class products to Indian consumers
highest ROE of 44% in the industry
Reported healthy revenue and profit growth in last 5 years Expect significant growth in profitability backed by
1 Stock
Identification
Initial screening
universe of 450 companies
Corporate meeting and detailed due diligence
Filter approach – using variety of valuation
Identify sustainable competitive advantage
parameters
Focus on earnings, free cash flow, ROE, long term
growth and profitability trends
3 Portfolio Construction
Monitoring & Nurturing
Combination of Top Down and Bottom Up approach with a
benchmark agnostic strategy to achieve Long term
4 Exiting & Realizing
Value
Exit from Sensex Exit from Sensex Name of company Peak Price Low Price
01 Jan 2011 Vs 30 May 2016 vs (Rs) (Rs)
01 Jan 2001 01 Jan 2011
MTNL 200 10
ACC DLF
Reliance Infra 2500 309
Ambuja Cement Hindalco
DLF 1200 72
Bajaj Holdings Jaiprakash Associates
Jaiprakash Associates 312 5.5
Castrol India JSPL
Reliance Communication 820 12
Reliance
GSK Pharma
Communication Tata Power 155 56
Grasim Sterlite
HPCL Tata Power
MTNL
Novartis
Ranbaxy Monitoring of the Portfolio is critical
Reliance Infra
Reliance Petro
Satyam
Zee
Market
Outlook
ROUND UP – APRIL 2018 11
Global macro data continues to be positive – China’s GDP in Q1CY18 grew by 6.8%, led by both domestic and exports growth. Some of the top
corporates from US, like Intel, Macrosoft, Amazon, Starbucks, have reported better than expected results and have given better outlook for
the year. The heightened words of war between US and China on trade escalations, have significantly subsided now. Geo-politically – a
momentous occasion for the world when North Korean leader, stepped across the border onto the Southern side for peace talks with his
counterpart. If we recall, just a few months back, it was one of the biggest risks to the markets. Even more surprising is NK’s offer to
completely denuclearize after only recently gaining the technology and the capability to strike any part of the US. Crude oil at elevated levels
continues to be a worry as OPEC is now talking about $80/bbl. Another factor to watch is US 10 year G Sec yields, which crossed 3%.
India: As transactions are the most basic economic activity that takes place, measuring them paints a fair picture of economic activity at
ground level. RTGS (~72% share of total adjusted transaction value) transactions reported 25% growth (Apr-Feb18). This is real encouraging
data point and points to improvement in economic recovery. This is further supported by encouraging IIP which grew by 7.1% (Feb18) - 4th
straight month of 7%+ growth vs. 2.5% for Apr-Oct17. The recovery is broad based and is led by automobiles and capital good goods.
IMD has forecasted normal monsoon for 2018 – good news for inflation, farm income and positive implication for growth. CPI retail inflation
in Mar18 fell to 4.3%, however, core CPI remained sticky at 5.4%. Higher petro-product & metal prices, higher MSP for agri products,
staggered impact of States’ HRA implementation (7th Pay Commission reco) and INR’s ~5% depreciation (CYTD) vs. USD may further feed into
the inflation, thus, necessitating RBI to review its stance on the interest rates. While RBI in its credit policy review toned down the hawkish
view and reduced the inflation target, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its minutes appears to be more hawkish and cautious on
inflation. The 10 year G Sec yields have also moved up from recent low 7.15% to back to 7.75% (seen in early Mar18).
Encouraging growth in digital transactions, improvement in IIP, strong commercial vehicle volume growth, recovery in non-food credit growth,
government thrust on Infra and rural focus spend makes us positive on Indian corporate earnings growth over next 12-18 months. While state
election/global factors will continue to make market volatile, we are positive on Indian equity with 3-5 year view.
AADHAR CARD – FINANCIAL INCLUSION 12
Jan Dhan
Reported Savings
30 Cr Minsitry/Dept Scheme
(Rs Bn)
G (%)
Aadhar linked Bank
accounts opened FY16 FY17
Petroleum &
PAHAL 215.8 297.6 37.9%
Natural Gas
5.9 Cr (60%) Food & Public
Distribution
PDS 101.9 140 37.4%
Aadhar linked
MNERGS Cards Rural
MGNREGS 30 117.4 291.4%
118 Cr (98%) development
11.4 Cr (45%)
Aadhar linked
ration cards
Demonetisation and GST will lead to market share shift from unorganised to organised sector, leading to 3-10x
increase in Size of opportunity in the listed equity space.
100
90
4-5x
80
Unorganised Share(%)
70 Diagnostics
Dairy
Plywood
60 Apparels
50
40 Tiles
Packaging
30
Electrical
Plastics
6-9x
20
Equipment
10
0
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00
Size of Opportunity (Organised Sector)(no of times over 10 years)
Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research
0 0 0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E
Source: IDFC Research Report, AAA Research Source: IDFC Research Report
INDIA ECONOMY RECOVERY: LIKELY
REPEAT OF FY03-08 15
GDP Growth(%)
9.5 9.6 9.3
8.6 8.9
8.0
7.4 7.6
Average GDP: 7.1% 7.1 Average GDP: 6.9% 7.1
6.7 6.7
5.4
4.5 4.7
4.2
3.8
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: RBI, AAA Research
IIP Growth(%)
15.5
12.9
11.7
-0.1
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Source: CSO,MOSL, AAA Research
DISSECTING THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY
OF FY03-08 16
0%
PAT
PAT
PAT
PAT
PAT
PAT
PAT
PAT
PAT
PAT
PAT
Revenue
Mcap
Mcap
Mcap
Mcap
Mcap
Mcap
Mcap
Mcap
Mcap
Mcap
Mcap
Revenue
Revenue
Revenue
Revenue
Revenue
Revenue
Revenue
Revenue
Revenue
Auto Banking Cement Consumer Consumer Engineering IT Mining & Oil & Gas Pharma Sensex
FMCG Durables Metal
15x
8.7x
7x 6.6x
5.3x 5.1x
3.3x 3.2x
2.7x
BSE Auto BSE Banking BSE Consumer BSE Capital BSE FMCG BSE Healthcare BSE IT BSE Metal Sensex
Durable Goods
Source: BSE, AAA Research
5.1x 5-15x
FOCUS ON STOCK EARNINGS GROWTH –
EARNINGS GROWTH TO BOUNCE BACK 18
Sensex CAGR
After reporting single digit earnings growth (FY08-17), ??
Sensex is expected to report healthy double digit 7.4%
growth (FY17-20E) Sensex CAGR
16%
EPS CAGR
5.5%
38.7% EPS CAGR
Sensex CAGR FY17-20E
Sensex CAGR
Sensex CAGR 25% FY08-17 1788
EPS CAGR
FY08
FY93
FY94
FY95
FY96
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
Source: Bloomberg , AAA Research
EARNINGS GROWTH CRITICAL
FOR RETURNS 19
Sensex @35160 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
EPS (Rs) 820 834 1024 1123 1185 1340 1355 1340 1353 1516 1789
EPS G(%) -2% 2% 23% 10% 6% 13% 1% -1% 1% 12% 18%
BV (Rs) 4,441 5,101 5,944 6,842 7,790 8,862 9,540 10,143 10,684 11,290 12,006
P/E(x) 26.0 23.2 19.7
P/BV(x) 3.3 3.1 2.9
ROE(%) 18.5% 16.3% 17.2% 16.4% 15.2% 15.1% 14.2% 13.2% 12.7% 13.4% 14.9%
Source: Bloomberg, AAA Research
22 4.3
Mean 17.2x
17 3.3
Mean 2.5x
12 2.3
7 1.3
Apr/15
Apr/16
Apr/08
Apr/09
Apr/10
Apr/11
Apr/12
Apr/13
Apr/14
Apr/17
Apr/18
Apr/09
Apr/15
Apr/08
Apr/10
Apr/11
Apr/12
Apr/13
Apr/14
Apr/16
Apr/17
Apr/18
PER Fwd(x) P/BV Fwd(x)
Source: AAA Research Source: AAA Research
21
Rich experience of more than 23 years in Indian capital market Rated as “Gold Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Balanced
Expertise in both Long Only & Long Short investment strategy Fund on a risk-adjusted return basis in July 2006
Former Director with Voyager Investment Advisors (US$500m) – CNBC TV18 - CRISIL Mutual Fund of the Year Award 2006 for DSPML Equity
USA based India dedicated fund for two and half years Fund
• During his tenure, fund Outperformed the benchmark Lipper India Fund Awards 2006 for best equity fund group for 3 years
indices significantly DSPML Technology.com Fund - best fund in the equity sector in the IT
Former Fund Manager with DSP Merrill Lynch (now DSP Blackrock) category (5 years, 8 eligible schemes)
Fund Managers Ltd for more than four years He was invited at Maharashtra Economic Summit to present views on
• During his tenure equity assets under management grew Indian Infrastructure
• The schemes delivered annualized return of 55% (Equity Invited by Institute of Directors to present views on Governance Deficit
Fund) & 62% (Top100 Fund) outperforming benchmark Invited by World Council for Corporate Governance to present views on
• The equity schemes maintained its “1st Quartile Ranking” Elected on the advisory panel of World CSR forum.
consistently during his tenure Actively involved with Arham Yuva Group - a philanthropic initiative
GLIMPSES OF SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE
TO BENCHMARK INDEX 24
4,000
27.0% CAGR
3,500 Rs 1 cr invested in Mar02 is worth presently Rs 35.28 crs
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
0
FY03 FY05 Jun06-Dec08 FY11 FY13 FY15 FY17 FY19YTD#
Director
(FCA – Chartered
Accountant, LLB)
• Guided the portfolio managers for right country, sectors and stocks weightings Won several awards at Motilal Oswal for
Former Senior VP – Equity Sales with Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd for 10 years consistently contributing to Institutional Equity
• Played key role in establishing institutional equity broking business, systems and Sales
processes
• Was account manager for major institutional domestic and foreign accounts advising
the clients on sectoral allocation and stock selection
26
The
AlfAccurate Advisors
philosophy
ALFACCURATE ADVISORS 27
Constant endeavor to be
ahead of the Market
Cap Exposure At least 50% in Mega & large cap (More than USD1bn) 55.9% invested in Mega & Large cap
Sector Weightage Not more than 30% in one sector Maximum exposure in a given sector is 16.1%
Not more than 10% in a given stock and not more than Maximum Exposure in a given stock is 3.7%.
Stock Weightage
50% in the top 10 Stocks Top 10 stocks as percentage of portfolio is 32.3%
Number of Stocks Minimum 30 Stocks 47 stocks
Stock Universe 450 Corporates 450 Corporates
30%
47 13 32.3%
Number of Stocks Number of Sectors Top 10 Stocks as % of portfolio Data as on: 30 Apr 2018
LEADING TO SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE 31
29.0 33.2
28.2 24.0 25.0
18.6 17.1
7.5 9.6 11.2 11.8
4.8 2.5 6.9 6.5
-9.1 -7.8
FY19
Performance (%) FY18 FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 Since Inception*
YTD#
AAA India Opp. Plan 6.9 25.0 28.2 2.5 71.7 29.0 11.2 9.6 18.6 493.4
BSE 500 Index 6.5 11.8 24.0 (7.8) 33.2 17.1 4.8 (9.1) 7.5 126.0
BSE Sensex 6.6 11.3 16.9 (9.4) 24.9 18.8 8.2 (10.5) 10.9 104.7
CNX Nifty 6.2 10.2 18.5 (8.9) 26.7 17.9 7.3 (9.2) 11.1 110.4
*(23 November 2009 – 30 April 2018)(Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees); #(01 April 2018 – 30 April 2018)
AAA India Opp. plan consistently not only outperformed but also generated Positive return in volatile markets
Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in
future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments
LEADING TO SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE 32
Since
Compounded Annual Returns (%) 1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3 YEARS 5 YEARS
Inception*
AAA India Opp. Plan PMS 24.5% 28.4% 21.1% 30.4% 23.6%
BSE 500 Index 15.9% 20.3% 12.0% 15.3% 10.2%
BSE Sensex 17.5% 17.2% 9.2% 12.5% 8.9%
CNX Nifty 15.4% 17.0% 9.5% 12.6% 9.2%
*(23 Nov 2009 – 30 Apr 2018)(Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees)
Performance Vs leading Mutual Funds since inception(%) Average Monthly Rolling Returns since inception(%)
25.3 25.6 26.3
493.4
AAA India Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 BSE 500 BSE CNX Nifty 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Opp. Plan* Index Sensex
AAA India Opp. Plan BSE 500 Index
Source: Bloomberg *Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 30 Apr 2018)(Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees)
AAA India Opp Plan ranks # 1 compared with 141 diversified funds of each reputed fund house
Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in
future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments
LEADING TO SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE 33
Less than 1 beta is good sign as it Beta of less than 1 shows AAA PMS has
Beta 0.86 1.0
denotes lower volatility of the portfolio lesser volatility compared to BSE500 Index
AAA IOP BSE500 AAA IOP BSE500 AAA IOP BSE500 Index
Monthly Rolling Returns Analysis(%)
1 Year Index 1 Year 3 Years Index 3 Years 5 Years 5 years
Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 30 Apr 2018) (Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees)
AAA has delivered average returns of 25.3%, 25.6% and 26.3% for 1 year, 3 years and 5 years respectively on
monthly rolling return basis
Negative returns for 3 years and 5 years rolling periods are 0
Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be
sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments
THE POWER OF COMPOUNDING –
A SCENARIO ANALYSIS 36
Disclaimer: Equity Investments are subject to market risks , read all plan related documents carefully. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely
for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient. The material is based
upon publicly available information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon. Opinions expressed are our
current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be
subject to change without notice. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without
AlfAccurate Advisors Pvt Ltd.'s prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and
completeness cannot be guaranteed. Alfaccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd and any person connected with the firm, does not accept any liability arising from the use of this document.