Presentation: Social Budgeting For Achieving The SDGS: A Case Study of Timor-Leste

SOCIAL BUDGETING FOR
ACHIEVING THE SDGS,

With an illustration of Timor-Leste’s Case
Arthur van de Meerendonk
André F. Bongestabs
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this document are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies
of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee
the source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice,
opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.
ADB–ADBI Regional Inception Workshop: Strategies for Financing Social Protection to Achieve SDGs in DMCs
17-18 May 2018, ADBI Tokyo, Japan
CONTENT
• Social Budgeting methodology
• Timor-Leste: Key Challenges for the SP related SDGs
• Timor-Leste: Social Protection Investments Distribution
• Timor-Leste: Social Transfers Gaps
• Timor-Leste: Policy Options to Close the Gaps
• Timor-Leste: Results
• Overall conclusions, data requirements and follow-up
Conceptual framework (1)
What is a Social Budget?
Social Budgeting is a (powerful !) planning instrument.
It constructs a complete series of accounts representing the financial
flows between
- sources of funding (for example: taxes and contributions),
- funding agents (for example: central and local government),
- social protection administrations (for example: pension funds, social
assistance administrations),
- and beneficiaries.
Conceptual framework (2)
What is a Social Budget? Linkages between budgets
GOVERNMENT Social Protection Administration
Revenues Expenditure Revenues Expenditure
tax revenues wages/salaries contributions cash transfers
non-tax revenues purchases operation costs

subsidies/transfers subsidies
grants
investment
interest investment profits
- purchasing equity
surplus/deficit - purchasing bonds
- issuing bonds
Methodology Education
Health
Social Services
Our approach: Cash transfers
NEEDS PROGRAMMES COSTS/BUDGET RESOURCES
impact
‘design or implementation gaps’
UNMET NEEDS Improved PROGRAMMES

What is Fiscal Space
or SDG gaps available?
or…
Additional PROGRAMMES COSTS/BUDGET
‘Social Protection Floor’
What are Timor-Leste’s Key SP related
SDG gaps?
• Widespread poverty - few good jobs; low agricultural
productivity and lack of access to markets;
• Malnutrition – Affects more than half of children under 5;

Estimated to hinder economic growth by 1 to 2 percentage
points, per year;
• Difficulties to access health services, but also lack of demand;
• Severe lack of pre-primary and secondary education supply -

schools and teachers;
• Other services = reaching isolated communities with reliable

services;
What are Timor-Leste’s Key SP related
SDG gaps?
• In 2007 = 50.4% poverty rate
• In 2014 = 41.8% poverty rate
• By 2030 = 20.9% poverty rate
“By 2030, reduce at least by half the Between 2007 and 2014, poverty
proportion of men, women and children of
all ages living in poverty in all its reduction of 1.2 p.p. per year.
dimensions according to national
definitions”
Until 2030, poverty rate needs to
“Implement nationally appropriate social
protection systems and measures for reduce by 1.5 p.p. per year.
all, including floors, and by 2030 achieve
substantial coverage of the poor and the
vulnerable”
Investment of Social Transfers
Budget and Population Distribution, by Age Group
$30 180,000
Population
Millions
160,000
$25
21% are 140,000
unemployed
$20 25% NEET 120,000
100,000
$15
80,000
52% are stunted
$10 15% are in school 60,000
40,000
$5
20,000
$- -
80 +
90 +
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
85 - 89
0-4
5-9
Bolsa da Mãe TSSS SAII Veterans Population
Investment of Social Transfers
Per capita investment for beneficiaries and general, by age groups (US$ per year)
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$-
55 - 59
80 +
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
0-4
5-9
Beneficiaries General Population
Coverage Gaps of Social Transfers
Beneficiaries and Coverage of Social Transfers, by Age Groups
Coverage per Age Group

Individuals
180,000 160%
160,000 140%
140,000
120%
120,000
100%
100,000
80%
80,000
60%
60,000
40%
40,000
20,000 20%
- 0%
70 - 74
80 +
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
75 - 79
0-4
5-9
Population Beneficiaries Coverage
Options to close these gaps
The recent ABND exercise in Timor-Leste identified potential reforms
that can help close the social protection gaps for children below 5 and
working age. We look at two of these.
US$ 10 per child per

Reform Bolsa da Mãe, Universal for Children below month
5 y/o (starting at pregnancy), increase benefit amount Starting 6 months
before birth
Target 10% of
Expand Public Works programmes, working age
particularly for rural areas US$ 375 average
yearly transfer
Costing these reform measures
Bolsa da Mãe - Universal Below 5y/o and Expecting Mothers
$30 2.0%
Million
1.8%
$25
1.6%
1.4%
$20
1.2%
$15 1.0%
0.8%
$10
0.6%
0.4%
$5
0.2%
$- 0.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Total Expenditure (US$) As % of Government Expenditure As % of GDP
Costing these reform measures
Expanded Public Works Programme
$16 0.7%
Million
$14 0.6%
$12
0.5%
$10
0.4%
$8
0.3%
$6
0.2%
$4
$2 0.1%
$- 0.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Total Expenditure (US$) As % of Government Expenditure As % of GDP
Gaps after Reforms
Beneficiaries and Coverage of Social Transfers, by Age Groups
180,000 180%
Individuals
Coverage per Age Group

160,000 160%
140,000 140%
120,000 120%
100,000 100%
80,000 80%
60,000 60%
40,000 40%
20,000 20%
- 0%
70 - 74
80 +
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
75 - 79
0-4
5-9
Population Beneficiaries of Social Transfers Coverage
Key Challenges to Advance the Study – Timor Leste
• Disaggregated data for Health Care use;

• Disaggregated and recent data for Veterans’
Programmes;
• Tackle the discrepancies on Budget Data from different
Government Sources.
Key Challenges to Advance the Study - Overall
For each of the three countries (DMCs) we will construct a database with the following
components:
 population structure and trends

 macroeconomic time series (GDP, inflation, labour productivity, rate of interest, etc.)
 labour force and labour market time series
 fiscal time series (economic and functional classifications)
Social protection programme data:
- expenditure and revenue (flows of funding and linkages with Gov’t budget)
- beneficiaries (coverage)
- conditions of entitlement, legal basis, governance/administration, etc.
RESULTS / DELIVERABLES
Training/capacity building:
• after the summer ADB will conduct 3 to 5 days training
seminars for government officials and stakeholders
• these will provide hands-on training on the model + a
means to finetune the assumptions and scenarios
• the aim is to create and/or stimulate national ownership!
THANK YOU!

Presentation: Social Budgeting For Achieving The SDGS: A Case Study of Timor-Leste

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SOCIAL BUDGETING FOR

ACHIEVING THE SDGS,

Revenues Expenditure Revenues Expenditure

tax revenues wages/salaries contributions cash transfers

non-tax revenues purchases operation costs

NEEDS PROGRAMMES COSTS/BUDGET RESOURCES

‘design or implementation gaps’

UNMET NEEDS Improved PROGRAMMES

Additional PROGRAMMES COSTS/BUDGET

‘Social Protection Floor’

• Malnutrition – Affects more than half of children under 5;

• Difficulties to access health services, but also lack of demand;

• Severe lack of pre-primary and secondary education supply -

• Other services = reaching isolated communities with reliable

Bolsa da Mãe TSSS SAII Veterans Population

Beneficiaries General Population

Coverage per Age Group

Population Beneficiaries Coverage

US$ 10 per child per

Total Expenditure (US$) As % of Government Expenditure As % of GDP

Total Expenditure (US$) As % of Government Expenditure As % of GDP

Coverage per Age Group

Population Beneficiaries of Social Transfers Coverage

• Disaggregated data for Health Care use;

 population structure and trends

Social protection programme data:

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