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OPEC

OPEC and non-OPEC

Mohammed Barkindo
Acting for the Secretary General

Balancing the interests of consumers and producers


11th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
11–13 June 2006
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OPEC

Outline

Current market situation


OPEC and non-OPEC
Relationship
Present role
Future role

Long-term oil outlook


Concluding remarks
Investment
Dialogue and cooperation
Meeting future challenges

2
OPEC Reference Basket price (nominal and real)
OPEC

and non-energy commodity prices


100
90
Nominal ($/b)
80
70 Real ($/b base March 2006) The real price is still well
60 below historical highs
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

400

OPEC Basket Aluminium Copper


350 Lead Nickel Gold

300

Non-energy commodity 250


prices have also risen
200

150

100
Jan 2001 = 100
50
Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- 3
01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06
OPEC

Recent oil market developments:


high demand growth

Other Asia

Middle East

Others
2003
2004
North 2005
America 2006

China

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0


mb/d
4
OPEC

Supply chain tightness: non-OPEC supply


2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5

1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0

-0.5 -0.5

-1.0 -1.0
2003 2004 2005 2006
China OECD Pacific OECD W.Europe
OECD N.America Total DCs Fsu- ex Russia
Russia Total non-OPEC supply

5
OPEC

Supply chain tightness: downstream bottlenecks


Refinery capacity utilization rates
24

21

18

15
US$/bbl

12

-3
Apr Aug Dec Apr Aug Dec Apr
04 04 04 05 05 05 06

WT I/US Gulf A.Heavy/US Gulf


Brent/Rotterdam Dubai Singapore
6
Increasing activity in futures market
OPEC

 A new inflow of capital movement by hedge and pension


funds into the futures market
 Open interest passed one million contracts now!

June 3, 2006
NYMEX WTI open interest & price
75 1200
OPEN Interest
Price 1050
65

('000 contracts)
900
(US$/bbl)

55
750
45
600

35
450

25 300
Jan- May- Sep- Jan- May- Sep- Jan- Jun- Oct- Feb-
03 03 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 06 7
OPEC

OPEC’s objectives

‰ Ensuring the stabilisation of prices in


international oil markets, with a view to
eliminating harmful and unnecessary
fluctuations.

‰ Securing an efficient, economic and


regular supply of petroleum to consuming
nations; and a fair return on their capital to
those investing in the petroleum industry.

OPEC Statute, 1961

8
OPEC

OPEC crude oil supply


has risen by 4.5 mb/d since 2002
31

Call on OPEC crude


30 OPEC crude production

29
mb/d

28

27

26

25
2003 2004 2005
9
OPEC

OPEC crude capacity continues to expand

40

38

36

34

32
mb/d

30

28

26

24

22

20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

10
OPEC

OPEC share of world crude oil production, %

60%

50%

40%

30%
OPEC's % share

20% 1960 41.2


1970 51.4
1980 44.4
10% 1990 37.3
2000 42.2
Current 41.7
0%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2004 11


OPEC

OPEC share of world crude oil exports, %

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
OPEC's % share
40%
1960 89.1
30% 1970 85.8
1980 75.6
20%
1990 58.8
10% 2000 52.9
Current 50.6
0%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004*
OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2004 12
OPEC

World crude oil production, 2004


mb/d

% world
OPEC 29,577.7 41.9

Non-OPEC 40,997.7 58.1 % non-OPEC


DCs 17,598.8 24.9 42.9
Others 23,398.9 33.2 57.1

World 70,575.4 100

OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2004 13


OPEC

OPEC/non-OPEC relationship

‰No impenetrable line between OPEC and non-


OPEC

‰Softening of divides over many years

¾ Major advances in dialogue and cooperation

Encouraged by OPEC

¾ Non-OPEC support for OPEC stabilisation


measures

14
OPEC

Regional crude oil production, 1984–2004


mb/d

Non-OPEC
OPEC

OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2004 15


OPEC

Regional crude oil production, 1984–2004


mb/d

Non-OPEC
OPEC

OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2004 16


OPEC

Long-term oil demand outlook, mb/d

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


OECD 49.8 51.5 52.8 53.8 54.6
DCs 28.7 34.2 40.0 46.3 52.9
Transition economies 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7

World 83.2 90.7 98.0 105.6 113.1

• World economic growth averages 3.5% pa over next two decades


• “Dynamics-as-usual”: no new strong policy drives
• Oil demand increases by 30 mb/d by 2025, or 1.5 mb/d annually
• Four-fifths of increase in demand comes from developing countries
• Transportation continues to be dominant source of growth (~60 %)
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OPEC

Conventional liquid resource base is sufficient

3500

3000 USGS estimates of


remaining resources

2500 Cumulative production


billion barrels

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1984 1987 1991 1994 2000

Date of assessment release

18
OPEC

Long-term oil supply outlook, mb/d

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


OECD 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.5 19.5
DCs, excl. OPEC 16.1 18.6 19.7 20.0 19.9
Transition economies 11.7 14.4 15.5 16.1 16.5

Total non-OPEC 50.1 55.8 58.3 59.4 58.9


OPEC (incl. NGLs) 33.1 34.9 39.7 46.2 54.3

World 83.2 90.7 98.0 105.6 113.1

Non-OPEC increases: Latin America, Africa, Russia, Caspian

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OPEC

Oil demand growth uncertainties

‰ Higher or lower economic growth


‰ Technological developments, especially transportation sector
‰ Consuming country energy and environmental policies
70

60
Million barrels per day

50 10.5 mb/d
OPEC Production
40

30

20
Reference Scenario
10
High Growth
Low Growth
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
20
OPEC

Dialogue and cooperation

¾ Continued cooperation & genuine dialogue: underlying


consensus on handling major issues of mutual concern for the
benefit of all.
International Energy Forum; International Energy Agency;
EU-OPEC Energy Dialogue; OPEC-China Energy Dialogue;
OPEC-Russia Energy Dialogue; Asian Oil & Gas Ministers
Round Table; Non-OPEC at OPEC Conferences; OPEC &
Non-OPEC experts meetings …

¾ Effective engagement on all interrelated issues:


• Security of supply and demand
• Price stability
• Energy policies
• Multilateral issues
• Technology
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OPEC

Concluding statement

The huge advances in dialogue and cooperation


of recent years in an interdependent global oil
industry will help OPEC and non-OPEC
producers become better-equipped to meet the
future challenges and find a better balance of
interests between producers and consumers.

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OPEC

www.opec.org

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