Abstract

In order to investigate the impact of climate change on the marine industries sector in

Washington State, we analyzed the historical data available to us through primary sources in

comparison to the statements given to us by an organization in this sector, the Port of Edmonds.

As a result of its proximity to natural resources and technological advancements, the marine

industries sector in the Pacific Northwest is bustling. However, this same proximity to the ocean

places many of the sector’s organizations in a position that makes them susceptible to the

negative impacts associated with climate change. Two of these impacts, rising sea levels and

increasing severity of seasonal floods, appeared to be of particular concern to the Port of

Edmonds. To assess whether or not sea levels were rising locally, we created a scatter plot of the

Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) between 1981 and 2016, as measured by a buoy anchored in

Elliot Bay. We added a trendline to the data, and discovered that there was indeed a positive

trend to the data, with an increase of 0.06 inches per year. In order to assess the port’s stance

regarding these threats, we sent a questionnaire to Bob McChesney, the Executive Director of the

port. Upon receiving his answers, we performed a discourse analysis to determine how serious he

believed that the impacts of climate change were going to be on his organization, as well as how

he plans to mitigate these effects in the future. The analysis showed that he accepted climate

change as a threat to his industry, however, no negative impacts were currently being observed,

and all plans to mitigate future effects were 15-50 years away from being realized. He pointed us

towards city documents that required all buildings to be raised by 2ft, suggesting that they were

aware of the threat that sea level rise had on their city as well. Further investigations of the city’s

budgets revealed a $5,000,000 annual increase in funding for the Capitol Replacement Reserve,
which was intended to help organizations like the port make the necessary upgrades to their

infrastructure. This amount of funding is disparagingly low, and we concluded that the port will

have to take matters into their own hands if they want to properly mitigate the impacts of climate

change over the next 100 years.

1. Introduction

Washington State has a thriving marine industries sector, encompassing over 2,300

companies and employing nearly 69,500 workers. The sector is divided into seven main business

lines; Seafood Processing, Recreational Boating, Cargo Handling, Passenger Vessel Operation,

Military Service, Support Services, and Boat Building, Repair, and Maintenance (Washington

State Department of Commerce). These subdivisions have worked together for decades to

establish themselves as pillars of the Washington State economy, owing their success largely to

the vast amount of natural resources available in the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, the sector

continues to grow at a rate of 6.4% every year, demonstrating its ability to incorporate the latest

advances in engineering and computer science into the products and services that it provides

(Washington State Department of Commerce).

The dependency of marine industries on their surrounding natural resources make them

particularly susceptible to the negative consequences associated with climate change. Both the

height of the sea level and the likelihood of severe flooding events are increasing in the greater

Puget Sound area, and this poses a direct threat to these industries (UW Climate Impacts Group).

The sea level measured off the coast of Seattle is increasing at a rate of 0.8 inches/decade, and is
projected to continue rising as much as 13 inches by 2100 (National Research Council 131). This

rise in sea level has the potential to expose docks and infrastructure of all kinds to saltwater and

corrosion, as well as engulf seawalls and inundate low-lying businesses. Additionally, the rising

sea level will exacerbate the impacts of local river flooding events, which are already projected

to increase in frequency (Hamman, JJ). The majority of flood events in Washington State are due

to rapidly melting snow, which can occur as a result of a warm storm during the winter, or an

extreme heat wave in the early spring. Both warming events are expected to occur with greater

frequency as CO2 levels in the atmosphere continue to rise (USGS 228). Frequent, severe flood

events can damage personal boating property and deposit debris into public waterways,

negatively affecting public ferry transportation and port operations.

For our report, we chose to assess the climate related impacts on the Port of Edmonds.

We decided to focus on this business because of their proximity to the Puget Sound, as well as

their susceptibility to seasonal floods. Both of these factors lead us to believe that they would be

planning large scale infrastructure renovations in preparation for rising sea levels and increasing

severity of flooding events. The purpose of our study was to determine how they were planning

on mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on their business, and to analyze if their

approach adequately accounted for trends in historical data.

2. Methods

2.1. Organization interview

On May 3rd, 2017, the Executive Director of the port Bob McChesney agreed to fill out

an online questionnaire about his stance on the impacts of climate change on his business. We
developed a set of questions that, when answered, would provide us both with his beliefs about

the severity of the effects that climate change will have on his port, as well as the steps that his

organization plans to take in order to mitigate these effects. He responded promptly, and we ran a

discourse analysis on his answers. For this analysis, we had three themes; belief in climate

change, impacts on his organization, and plans to mitigate effects in the future. For every theme,

we reviewed each statement that he gave, and assigned it a value of +1 if it was in direct

support, 0 if it was neutra, and -1 if it was in direct opposition. We then totalled the the numbers

for each theme, providing us with our overall results.

2.2. Climate analysis related to impact to organization

In order to determine the degree to which sea level has been rising near the Port of

Edmonds, we analyzed a set of data collected by NOAA from a buoy anchored in Elliott Bay.

The buoy collected data once every month, and we downloaded the raw Mean Higher High

Water (MHHW) data from 1981 to 2016. From there, we began creating our own spreadsheet of

data, with the year in one column, and the average MHHW between the months of January and

December in another column. We then analyzed the data by creating a scatter plot with the year

on the x-axis and the average MHHW between January and December on the y-axis.

Furthermore, we added a trendline to the scatter plot, and calculated the slope.

3. Results

3.1 Interview results

3.1.1. Summarize organization background

 The Port of Edmonds is a special purpose public agency that operates a full service

recreational marina (662 wet moorage slips and 232 dry stack storage units), a fuel dock, public

boat launch, 50-ton travelift, and a work yard for vessel repairs. It also owns and operates

commercial real estate. The general market area covers all of Puget Sound, and 85% of its

moorage customers live in Snohomish and King County.

3.1.2. Discourse analysis results

For the“belief in climate change” theme, our analysis of Bob’s answers provided a value

of +7. For the “impact on organization” theme, he scored a +2, and for the “future plans” theme

he scored a +4.

Essentially, he believes that that there are no visible or measureable direct climate

impacts on his business. However, the Port of Edmonds is in the intertidal zone. Over time, they

expect higher high tides to potentially over top the protective breakwater. If other interventions

aren’t implemented, the tides may eventually inundate the upland areas with incidental seasonal

flooding conditions that could worsen over time. Public safety is a primary concern.

Since the marina facilities are “permanent” structures that cannot easily or cheaply be

replaced proactively, the issues are discussed in long range planning. The Port of Edmonds have

initiated a long-term capital plan that anticipates additional engineering and financial resources

to make necessary modifications over a 15-50-year time frame. The City of Edmonds also

amended the Critical Areas Ordinance (CAO) in 2016 that requires new building pads in the

Coastal Hazard flood zones to be elevated a minimum 2 feet above base flood elevation. The city

also made a modification to the definition of height to have the zoning height measured from two
feet above base flood elevation as opposed to the average grade level which is where height is

normally measured from the City of Edmonds.

Capital Replacement Reserve will provide $13,300,000 by 2021 for the long-term plans.

Currently, no specific remedial construction projects to mitigate sea level rise are initiated in the

Port of Edmonds.

Table. 1 Interview results analysis

3.2. Climate analysis results

From our analysis, we can safely conclude that the Port of Edmonds will be affected by

sea level rise in the next century. The data we gathered indicates a rise in sea level of about 13

inches by the year 2100. The primary source of our data originated from the study of Guillaume

Mauger, and his paper “State of Knowledge: Climate Change in the Puget Sound.” This study

indicates that the sea level rise we expected will most likely be occurring in the next 100 years

(Table. 2).

Besides this, we gathered historical data from a mooring operated out of Elliott Bay, and

run by NOAA. This data came from the NOAA website. The index used was the Average Mean

Higher High Water index, and our group used the data set on a monthly average from December

to January, from 1980-2016 (Fig. 1).

 Our group also utilized ClimateCentral.org in order to find information about the

increased chances of flooding at the Port of Edmonds. This website utilizes studies such as that

of​ ​Claudia Tebaldi, Benjamin H. Strauss, and Chris E. Zervas. From this we gathered that the

risk of flooding at the Port of Edmonds in the next century is growing exponentially, and that

within the next 100 years, there is an extremely high chance of a flood occurring in the area that

reaches to a height of at least 4 feet.

Domain 2030 2050 2100

Washington State +4 inches +9 inches +28 inches

(+1 to +8 in.) (+4 to +18 in.) (+14 to +54 in.)

Puget Sound ---- +6 inches +13 inches

(+4 to +15 in.) (+7 to +37 in.)
Table. 2 Future sea level predictions of Washington state and Puget Sound, Guillaume (2015)

Figure. 1 Average MHHW for Dec-Jan, 1980-2016, Elliott Bay

4. Discussion
 a. From the beginning of this project, we believed that what would most impact the

Port of Edmonds was sea level rise, as they are situated right on the water with

many permanent structures in place. What we did not expect was the concern

from the Port of Edmonds over the higher risk of flooding in the area. From our

analyses of sea level rise and increased flood risk, it is apparent to us that the Port

of Edmonds sits in a dangerous spot for the near future. If action is not taken in

the near future to support the organization, then there is a high chance that by the

year 2100, the Port of Edmonds will suffer from a drastic flood, along with being

close to permanent flooding from the rise of the Puget Sound. The Port of

Edmonds seems to be headed in the right direction to retrofit their facilities in

order to accommodate their changes, and even has support from the City of

Edmonds in changing building codes in order to assist with the raising of the

permanent structures. Despite this, the Port of Edmonds has an extremely large

time frame given the severity and increased chances of flooding events. In

addition to this, from the published budget on the Port of Edmonds website, we

believe that the organization is seemingly not raising funds quickly enough in

order to undergo this massive construction project. We believe that the Port of

Edmonds is on the right track to preparedness, but must speed up their process in

order to reduce the chances of large scale damage to the port facilities.

Acknowledgements
 We would like to thank Bob McChesney, the Executive Director of the Port of Edmonds

for agreeing to respond to our questions about the port in a timely and honest manner. In addition

to this we could not have completed this project without the support and guidance of our

instructors David McGowan, Nicholas Bond, and Julia Parrish.

References

Berger, Joshua. "Maritime Sector." Washington State Commerce. N.p., n.d. Web. May 2017.

Mauger, G., J. Casola, H. Morgan, R. Strauch, B. Jones, B. Curry, T. Busch Isaksen, L. Whitely

Binder, M. Krosby, and A. Snover. 2005. State of knowledge: Climate change in Puget

Sound. Available: https://cig.uw.edu/resources/special-reports/ps-sok/ (May 2017).

United States Geological Survey. What Causes Flooding in Washington State? N.p.: United

States Geological Survey, n.d. Web.